College Football Week 2 Picks and Predictions | Colorado vs Nebraska | College Football Today 9/6/24

Introduction [Music] [Music] all right get ready week two of the college football season it is upon us here and we've got uh a few games five in total we're going to break down for you here coming up we're going to do it with what we call affectionately here at wagertalk.com the damn a team people as we welcome back in on the Friday college football kickoff show dou r one L his name is Steve Merrill Brian Leonard in Oregon State vs San Diego State - Steve the house and of course TC Teddy covers ready to roll here on this week two of the college football slate listen we went over uh some great games yesterday we're going to go over a bunch here that are extremely interesting here and we're going to start I believe Merill with you as we're going to head out west uh with Oregon State taking on San dieago State new errors for both of these schools what are we thinking we're going to get here in this first game up well what I always like to do is uh start with like kind of a power rating th000 simulations through the database to get a projected margin of Victory and in this one uh the computer sped out Oregon State by about five on average so that's a good starting point for us uh we'll dig in a little bit deeper to what we saw you know as you mentioned kind of uncertainty for both squads and keep in mind in college football unlike the NFL we don't get the preseason we get many scrimmages or whatnot um so these teams are kind of going in on the blind we have to be careful not to overreact not just the week one I really think but the first several weeks of the season when you're looking at these squads um to see how things are going to play out and when you have some changes whether it be know coaching staff transfers whatnot um some teams can start a little bit slower than others um I do think Oregon State's the better Squad here uh San Diego State's never been much of an offensive power in recent years I don't think that's going to change much uh this season uh currently the line may be a tick too high at minus 6 six and a half once again my projection is about a five-point win here by the Beavers but I do think they're the more talented team uh couldn't learn Too Much from the Idaho State game last week they were a 29o favorite uh they won 38-5 kind of did what they had to do in that game and got out of there without any really damage uh excellent rushing game though by Oregon State that's what kind of jumped out to me 362 yards on the ground and that could be the different in the difference in this one if San Diego State struggles to run the ball uh San Diego State was a 32 and a half Point favorite against Texas A&M Commerce I actually watched some of that game it was on True TV and A&M Commerce was up six to three at the half that's one of the reasons I turned it on and as we often see when an FBS team plays an FCS team the smaller Squad got wor down in the second half they got out scored 42 to8 after winning 63 in the first half um so yes San Diego State got off to a sluggish slow start did run for 254 yards so both teams ran the ball pretty well actually moved the ball pretty well but against inferior opponents um point spread about a notch too high based on my projections maybe not a game I'll be involved in as far as the total in this one um I do think both teams will look to keep it on the ground that could keep the clock moving maybe shorten the game a little bit a total open 56 it's down to 54 across the board I would probably lean towards the under as well all right looking towards a bit of an under there as you can see 55 uh right now is what we're looking at in that game there out west uh kind of a wait and see approach in that one as we welcome in Brian Leonard and Brian I this is an interesting game you got here how about if I hear one more person tell me that Kansas is alive to win the Big 12 I'm going to throw up uh but they are very much alive to win the Big 12 I guess here as they're getting ready to take on uh the Big 10 and Illinois so something's got to give in this game between these two teams what do you think we're going to see yeah week two is always overreaction week the problem is neither one of these teams really played a team in week one so I don't know if we can overact react Kansas vs Illinois - Bryan to anything but you know you really got to like the job that Lance leupold's done in his first three years here he was was a terrific Money Maker back when he was a buffalo and he's brought that J jhw program back to respectability that said I believe this team enters the season a bit overrated here uh they're a veteran Squad but they have a new offensive coordinator as well as an unproven defensive front uh they beat Lindenwood which I have no idea where that is at but they beat them 48-3 uh last week but I don't see how that prepares them to beat us sub be a substantial Road favorite here against the Big 10 program Illinois also a bit of a Revenge after losing to The Jayhawks last year 34-21 in fact they were out gained in that game by 1898 yards that was more than they were out gained by any other team all season long including pretty good Big 10 teams in that regard I'm sure uh Brett BMA will have no problem getting his players ready for this one after the way they looked in that game last last year and they've only got a Mac opponent on Deck uh so uh they should be fully focused here against the Kansas team that really isn't in the position of being a road favorite very often especially against a you know a power five Squad putting Ali I do have some concerns on both lines and death I think is going to be a problem later in the year but while they're still fresh I think there's a little bit of value playing on Illinois in this one uh Big 10 clubs are really tough to beat at home very physical games and uh we expect that to be the situation here a lean with Illinoi not enough to make it a play um if we were getting a couple points more I think I'd be on them but at this point just aan on the fighting line all right with the uh with the home team there to get it done Big 12 versus Big 10 you got to love week two of the college football season here feels like Teddy inner League Play Here Major League Baseball we we're kind of mixing and matching right now we're trying to figure out who's who who's what uh week two uh I think Brian Leonard alluded to it pretty well there it lot of overreactions uh this week however you've got a game in which I I don't know should we overreact to what Arizona state did to Wyoming last week uh Mississippi State vs Arizona State - Teddy they've got Mississippi State coming up here is is Mississippi state did they underperform last year did are they just Terri what are we make of these two teams here so to call week two overreaction week is real that being said week three is overreaction week week four is overreaction week it happens a lot in the college football landscape and obviously early the season all you have is one you know one snapshot of what we saw from these teams last week which is not necessarily what you expect to see from these squads all season long by the way Brian lyndenwood University St Charles Missouri I had to look that up cuz because I didn't know it was from either so now we know moving forward so Kenny will Kenny dillington walked in a really bad spot last year Herm Edwards final season was a disaster at Arizona State they went three and n as last year and then three and N three and nine in Edwards last season and then three and N again last year and they're expected to compete for last place in the Big 12 this year not first you know this is not a team I'm excited about laying a price with then again we look at the alternative it's probably the better of these two choices we're talking late night bailout special on ESPN 10 :0 eastern time I watched the Arizona State Wyoming game last Saturday night and it was very much Wyoming bad as opposed to Arizona State good it was 27 nothing halftime 487 final the red shirt Frost QB Sam levit was solid 258 passing RS two touchdowns no picks last year Arizona stated at the quarterback position combined to throw seven touchdown passes for the year so at least the QB position appears to be solidified there and of course they run ran the ball for 241 yards on the ground the big deal in that game at least in my mind was the way the defense swarmed the line of scrimmage legit Improvement of course they allowed 30 points a game plus over the last two years they brought in 30 new transfers they're supposed to be better but they held Wyoming to 118 yards the total offense and 74 of those yards and the only touchdown of the game for Wyoming came on the last Drive of the game with all backups on the field Arizona State's defense scored a pair of touchdowns last year they didn't even force a turnover until the fourth game of the season so there's pluses here for Arizona State Je je leb's in now for the Bulldogs and look this is a team that wasn't good last year either they're also expected to compete for last place some you know I don't like the quotes coming out of Mississippi State uh this past week you know there this a team that last year on the road 13 or less three times in Four Road games you know linebacker Nick Mitchell quote they like to stretch it out throw the ball on the perimeter they got some speed out there our hands are definitely full this week that's one of those concerning quotes for me and of course first year first time head coach first road game that's not a bet on spot either especially when we're talking about a game that starts at 9:30 pm uh on the kids body clocks which means the fourth quarter is gonna be played after midnight for their body clocks I'm laying if I'm playing Arizona State or pass for this better yeah I remember Blake shaping at at Balor uh Teddy and uh there were some uh there were some hype around him and then of course that program just went hard left and now he's over at Mississippi State so that should be interesting to see but tough-nosed kid that's for sure I think he fits the style of Mississippi State but your guess is as good as mine with what we're going to get from these two teams this year it's kind of crazy all right r1l Steve Marl Brian Leonard Teddy covers in the house and of course guys the opportunity to partner with them uh available right now over at wagertalk.com uh as all three of give these guys uh in addition to a ton of free content available including meril's top 25 college football of course fade the public in the NFL available links are below for those of you joining us here on YouTube those that are on Tik Colorado vs Nebraska - Roundtable Tock or Instagram or YouTube shorts we appreciate you stopping by make sure you hit the follow button but make sure you visit these guys over at wagertalk.com as they are locked loaded and ready to go for week two in college football and I think there's another style of football I can't it escapes my mind uh but I'll tell you what there are a couple of games coming up this week that a lot of eyeballs are going to be on and we want to go round table and get your opinion all three of you guys on who else Dion I mean come on this I mean it's just train wreck Central and I'm all for it Colorado taking on Matt rules Nebraska Corn Huskers and Marl listen Matt rule rebuilds programs it's what he does sucks in the NFL but I got to tell you he can rebuild a college program and it usually starts in week or year number two for him and he's got the quarterback he's got the pieces uh this could be a different Corn Huskers season but I I don't can he can he handle what Dion and korado is going to bring to the table here uh what do you think we're going to see well Colorado was a very good team early in the season last year but then as you know everybody did start to kind of handle them and the one thing that was the problem last year wasn't that they couldn't score offensively they were just a phony defense and I knew even after the first few weeks that team was not for real and I think Nebraska if they're smart they're going to try to pound the ball in the ground in this game and I feel they will probably have some success doing that I just don't believe in this Colorado defense especially this run defense I need to see more verification that they have turned things around this year and um I think Colorado is also a very public team you know Joe you referenced my top 25 video for college football but also that fade the public NFL video will be up this weekend don't talk as much about public consensus especially early in the season in college football but last September a year ago Colorado was maybe the most public team I'd ever seen in the history of college football I think they're still carrying somewhat of a u public uh you know badge on them and that because of that we get some line bound that's why F the public does work in certain spots and I think this is an example of that my 10,000 game simulation through the database has Nebraska winning by just under 13 points on average and this line is less than a touchdown so in my opinion the line value is with the Corn Huskers here and I think you are getting a discount when you play against Colorado and you're also getting to fade a bad defensive team on the road so there's some reasons to like the Corn Huskers here on Saturday gotta tell you though I mean shador and Hunter are just I don't know how many touchdowns uh they're going to put up this year those those two kids look like they're playing a different game than everyone else Brian Leonard it uh if if nothing else it it's going to be mustat television with Dion and Colorado the rest of the way through uh it should be a fun one here but what do you think uh points points and more points uh not an it used to not be an easy place to play in Lincoln here but what do you think we're gonna get yeah I'm in a little bit of an agreement with Steve maybe a different conclusion but uh we make we all make good money fting this Buffalo's team last year as ESPN hype went crazy on this team and we all took advantage of that we probably won't see that type of value again in the near future but hey we made a lot of money betting against Colorado last year that said uh I think there's going to be ways to take advantage of this program this this year in totals uh Colorado very talented offensively but they have serious concerns on the defensive side of the football and obviously because the offense is so explosive they can score so fast it makes the defense on to be on the field more than they want to be which wears them down as the game goes on problem is they're playing a NE Nebraska team here who to me in my mind has a clear better Coach here Matt r as you mentioned has done wanders turning around lesser programs in his second year here I expect the corners could really maximize their talent the problem is rules teams are known for their defenses not necessarily their offenses in fact if you look at last year down the stretch Nebraska scored a total of 54 combining points points in their final four games uh they're not facing a big 10 defense here though they're facing a weak defense in Colorado State but it's it's tough laying over a touchdown against a team that can easily produce a back door cover here so I'm leaning Colorado it may be the only time all season I'm leading Colorado but to get over a touchdown with the team that has got made improvements offensively no doubt about it they brought in a nice quarterback there but until I see it I can't lay it so slight lean here with Colorado Colorado slight lean there uh Teddy intriguing uh the quarterback uh Matt rule wanted this kid thank goodness the family tree has ties to Nebraska uh so he ended up getting him and I watching the kid throw I'm a little curious about his delivery and his release it it looks weird but it's always on the money you kind of think ru's going to going to put up some points this year they only lost what I think the F five losses by less than a score last year so he obviously has the pieces he wants can he execute and get Nebraska over to hump this year well I'm gonna start by quoting Denny green still a meme 20 years later you know Colorado is what we thought they were Nebraska might not be but Colorado is that was very clear last week they have an elite quarterback we talked about it Elite wide receiver You Know shador janers Travis Hunter the offensive line line is better than it was last year but quality depth is non-existent and the defense isn't primed to stop solid stop units obviously you know when you're struggling not that North Dakota State's a pretty darn good FCS team so the fact that they struggled at times last week as a favorite doesn't mean they're a bad dog this week and it's worth noting this point rate was at seven and a half last night is down to six and a half in a lot of locations this morning so we've seen the around the key number of seven the money coming for the underdog Nebraska was impressive last week look 31 Downs 200 plus in the ground 200 plus through the air 500 yards overall roola looked great in his college debut but make no mistake about it this is a much tougher foe they were 28 point favorites last week they are playing with Revenge last year Colorado wins this match up 36-4 of course the Buffs were plus three in turnovers but they were also plus 113 net yards Nebraska's offense didn't work in that game against even Colorado's defense I'm not buying into the Revenge angle I do Express Nebraska's offense to be better and Colorado we've heard it a couple times already but no one's actually said it the Buffs are an over Team all right Sanders gonna make some plays all right this passing game's gonna produce some quick strike touchdowns but the defense isn't gonna stop many good offenses just yet we've seen money for the dog and money for the under this morning I'll fade that money for the under I think Colorado and Nebraska over I'm seeing 55 and a halfs out there right now which is really the cheapest number that I've seen all week in my mind that's the way I would look over Buffs Huskers yeah I'd even look team total I there's a lot of ways to to carve up and over in that game Teddy I'm kind of with you man I think the points are coming I think it's going to be one of the more entertaining games maybe not more entertaining than this next game that we're going to break down which all Al happens to be I think one of the two uh where we pit top 25 versus top 25 Steve Merill will know all about that since he's got his top 25 video uh locked loaded ready to go make sure you guys check that out the link is in the description below uh but let's talk Tennessee vs NC State - Roundtable about it since we don't often talk about it because I think these schools are about 400 miles apart and yet they've only played each other three times since 1911 so you don't get NC State and Tennessee very often to talk about and yet here we are Merill Tennessee taking on North Carolina state if Josh hyp has his way they'll be 200 points scored in this game uh but I don't know if that's going to happen what do you think we're going to get in this one coming up this weekend yeah you're talking about overs in that last game Tennessee knows something about high-scoring games um and if Josh hpel has his way it'll be a fast start for the BS and I mentioned that because a friend of mine Tom Abraham I do his ESPN radio show every week in the Tennessee Valley area and he mentioned a couple weeks ago that Tennessee's first half record the last years is over 65 almost 70% against the spread and I don't do a lot with first halves in college football but Tennessee has been a monster first half team um and it makes a lot of start since they're an explosive team so they get out to fast starts and I think teams also make adjustments at the half so my point is if you're looking to play Tennessee definitely take a look at them in the first half if you're looking to play NC State here I'd recommend the full game and that is where the value is in my opinion in fact talked about public plays with Colorado well Tennessee in general looks like one of the most public plays this week both Sharps and squares I guess you could say because the line opened six and a half it's now up to 10 across the board on the wager talk live odd screen and by the way if you're having trouble finding on the wager talk live odd screen you got to go way down below the extra games it's a right in game because in the regular rotation they had uh Tennessee listed as the home team they flipped it to NC State as the home team even though it's Charlotte it's te techically a neutral field so once again it says canel on the main board you got to go down to the right end don't think this game was canceled it's a big game it's being played um but my projection my simulation has an average Tennessee winning by six and a half which is exactly where this line op so I do think it's got a little frothy here at minus 10 so a 10 or more a very key number the values with NC State uh Tennessee is a scary team to fade they're explosive um but I think NC State full game is probably still worth a look based on an inflated line yeah I mean nobody gets out to better fast starts than Josh hyp in Tennessee I mean their first half records even when he was uh at UCF uh he was a covering machine it'll be interesting uh Brian Leonard whether or not the defense here of NC State who against Western Carolina kind of felt like they were out on the field a lot might have gotten a little gassed in that game too as well but uh they certainly had a big fourth quarter I think shut him out 21 to nothing in the fourth quarter and they pulled away but uh uh that was that uptempo offense of West Carolina they ain't seen nothing yet here maybe that's a good first game for him because they gave him a pretty good prep for what they're going to see here against Tennessee yeah uh I made this number 14 and a half on a neutral so to me the betting value is on Tennessee um you give you know Charlotte I think he stayed a little bit of a home field but not to this point and in fact the number has bounced around all week but I saw some money coming in on the underdog today knocking it down to eight and a half and nine in certain areas and that's got me a little bit excited about this one if you can lay less than uh less than 10 here I think Tennessee is the way to go you know this a team is we mentioned wants to play Fast they've got some of the best offensive talent in the country scored 69 last week against Chattanooga obviously different defense that're going to face in this one but this is a team that could put up points in a hurry uh last year the balls lit up the scoreboard against Bad defenses but really struggled when stepping up at class uh they not only have the offensive edge here but this tency defenses I think much improved from two years ago got better last year I think it's going to be even better this year n State finished the 2023 regular season in style winning five straight conference games but as was mentioned they did struggle a little bit against Western Carolina these lesser teams lower smaller teams don't have the personnel and as games and Seasons go on they tend to get hurt and they don't have a lot of depth and that's what happened I think last week with NC State so I got to take a look at that with a little bit of a grain of salt uh this number as I mentioned is bounced around all week and I think as long as we can get Tennessee single digits I like the way this team is it forces NC State to play a game maybe they don't want to play we'll see uh but Tennessee is an elite offense and if you get them laying less than 10 here that's the way I'm looking if you can get it under double digits not a bad way to look I mean Teddy did do you have Tennessee that much better uh than them or are we giving NC State too much credit what what what do you think this game lies so my my initial gut reaction was that it's too many points too many uh for NC State my number was less than a touchdown and that's where it opened you know opened four and a half at DraftKings six six and a half offshore six at Circa seven at Westgate uh and then immediately got bet up was bet up as high as minus1 and now we've seen the buyback over the last 24 hours down to minus nine for Tennessee even eight and a half in this neutral field game and you know when we look at the trends you know hyo's been great 4-0 against a spread at neutral site 16 and8 is a favorite he's been a good bully NC stayed away from home as a dog just 715 and one you know neutral site only have one win since 2017 so the trends Point towards Tennessee very clearly and certainly we look at the the Richard Frost QB the top right recruit yamala for uh the the volunteers he was great last week and obviously when you get 300 yards on the ground your inexperienced quarterback's gonna have plenty of time to throw the football and NC State was in that battle against Western Carolina so while the trends are pointing clearly towards Tennessee and the coaching Trends and all of that from a value standpoint I love it when a team doesn't blow out uh fcso and the markets are like oh that matters or when a team does blow out an fcso and the market goes oh that matters it doesn't matter all right the coaches and their approaches to these games are are can be very different Doran is a guy who has shown he wants to try things he's gonna experiment in these games he's not a guy that's going to roll you know run up scores Hyo is the other way and last week is you know Tennessee all they have to do is Chuck Chuck Chuck and then the defense is done and you know they couldn't compete at the line of scrimmage that won't be the case this week and of course that Wolfpack defense 20 points per game allowed over the last three years it's been really good you know they looked like a team that wasn't tuned up and and now they will be tuned up so this isn't a good play I'm not going to bet this uh but my lean is towards the wolf pack plus the points I think it's a little bit too high neutral sight and all uh it I'm sure Tennessee fans will have no problem traveling uh though again just about 400 miles separating them should be a fun atmosphere for sure maybe a total worth taking a look at either Which Way week two of the college football season begins tonight here as we've got some uh some matchups on the card uh r1l what do you got lock loaded ready to roll here uh tonight at wagertalk.com so we're talking college football here on the show just two games tonight on Friday I'm going to take a pass but I do have a strong card for this Saturday in college football but let's not forget the NFL started last night I casted another best bet winner uh number one in ATS profits in college and pro football combined for the past two plus Seasons at wager talk we got off to a nice start in the NFL last night but let's not sleep on baseball either on a now 22- six baseball winning run the last few weeks for my Best Bets at wager talk I'm just smoking them in all sports so yes baseball 22- six NFL started off right last night huge college football card tomorrow you guess not a bad time to maybe get an all sports package and this weekend's the time to do it because we have a three-day sampler right now for just $49 no promo code need at every baseball college football pro football best bet for the next three days and nights for just 49 bucks check it out right now along with a bonus free baseball play tonight Steve Marill wagertalk.com all right Brian Leonard how about you lock loaded ready to roll baseball college NFL little smattering of all three yes it is we've got an afternoon baseball play today we've got there's two college football games tonight we used a team total in one of those games um that's our best play of the day got four plays up in Saturday college football two plays up in the NFL so far so we're still looking at games to reach our numbers that we're searching for and uh if we can get some of those I may add some more plays as the day goes on here and Steve mentioned it that uh that three-day special saving $20 is very nice because you get Friday Saturday and Sunday big weekend of football it can use all of us in that uh in that package and and use that for any handicapper over at the site it's a a really nice deal and I'm on a 26 and 13 run in college football dating back to last year 60% so far in the young season and looking forward to adding to that profit this weekend it's what it's all about uh guys taking advantage while you can uh and building up that bank roll early on in the season and Teddy we got an NFL game tonight we got a college football we got a loaded weekend are you uh you dabbling in any of that here tonight this weekend I'm dabbling in the NFL tonight I'm dabbling in college football tonight absolutely uh and unfortunately for my clients uh I was on the wrong end of that toe tap last night that Merl was on the right side of them so we cashed with Kansas City and my clients did not cash with Baltimore that that it was the big difference between winning and losing and that's the way it's going to be in some of these games we understand that this has not been a great week for me that being said actually it's been a lousy week for me that being said we won last Saturday in college football I have a 28 and nine long-term track record for week NFL over the last 10 years now so better than 70 something percent in the NFL week one long term and I'm confident that this week this weekend will be at least as good as last weekend which was solid just this week I stunk up so anyhow two plays tonight loaded card tomorrow loaded card on Sunday get it right now w. buzz backc and take advantage of that three-day all access pass just $49 you would have been really great Teddy if uh you know forget about the the toe tap it would have been fantastic if you didn't throw the ball nine feet behind Z flowers the player before when he was wide open in the end zone I digress I digress though but yes let's all talk about the toe tap uh Merl what else else you got going on here at wagertalk.com I believe you forgot something I did and this applies to all of us we have a very special promo code for this panel today only on this show uh I know we're talking baseball we're talking the NFL we're talking ballet and toet tapping whatever else you and Teddy want to talk about but look seriously it's a college football show we have a 30-day all access college football pass for just $99 and you can only get this with a special promo code which I'm giving you right now this is not in my top 25 video it's not on any other shows CFB 99 CFB as in college football 99 is in the price if you want to get 30 days of football from either Brian Teddy or myself you got to use that promo code and you heard it on this show only I forgot to mention it earlier it's for Brian Leonard Teddy covers myself Steve Merrill and you're not going to hear it anywhere else you can get a 30-day package from each and every one of us for just $99 with promo code CFB 99 CFB 99 a special thank you for watching the show today on Friday it's almost going to throw in a legal formation flag on you Merill but you recovered there well done uh outstanding stuff here r1l Brian Leonard Teddy covers known as The A Team guys don't forget smash that like button uh joining us on Instagram or Tik Tock happy Friday to you each uh Thursday and Friday by the way you'll find a college football kickoff show here so you want to hit that subscribe button to follow button the like button do whatever you want with the buttons you guys know what you're doing there at this particular Point make plans to come back and join us again uh last call coming your way this weekend Saturday and Sunday uh as we give you the last opportunity to ask some questions Kelly Stewart will be in the hosting chair VR Johnny the Greek uh and others will be joining us all weekend long so make sure you come back and join us until then on behalf of Teddy Merill and Brian Leonard best luck with the plays tonight this weekend we'll talk to you again soon here on wager talk TV good luck [Music]