2024 College Football Week 2 Picks and Odds | Top 25 College Football Betting Preview & Predictions

Introduction two college football is here we already have a head-to-head top 10 matchup Texas Michigan the defending national champs Michigan Wolverines are a seven-point home Underdog a full touchdown home Underdog is it an overreaction or had they really Fallen that much this season I'll let you know along with the top 25 matchup Tennessee NC State and we're going to go deep a little deeper for you bonus two bonus games for you top 30 matchups Iowa State Iowa Boise State Oregon I'm going to break down all four of those games the four biggest college football games this Saturday September 7th with my projection my 10,000 game simulation projection for every game my power ratings analysis and free picks coming up in this video in just a moment hi this is Steve Merl wagertalk.com right back here on wager talk TV and this is your weekly college football top 25 preview video breakdown and as I said we're going to go just a bit outside with two bonus games because there's only two true head-to-head top 25 matchups but there's a couple other teams that are on the outside looking in if they win will be ranked next week so I'm going to give you those bonus games at the end as well but as I do every week I run 10,000 simulations for every game on the board different matchups situational analysis and we come with an average margin of victory for each game and it's pretty much a power ready it's really a true point spread my projection on how the games will play out now we do factor in other metrics of course such as mat you know some subjective matchups injuries coach information but all that is factored into the simulation as well so it's a pretty accurate number and as you know we crushed it last year in college football shoot we've crushed it every I've been at wager talk.com for the past four seasons in fact as we enter this football season I'm number one ranked combined in college and pro football sides the last two years combined on all ATS selections and we're looking to have at a fantastic 2024 as well if you'd like to get my Best Bets this week for college and pro football check them out at wagertalk.com hey some of these games here on the video might make my client Best Bets as well let's 3 Texas at #10 Michigan start with the biggest game of the week it goes at 12:00 noon Eastern on Fox national TV number three Texas at number 10 Michigan uh the early look ahead line on this game the opening line was 3 and A2 and now it's 77 and a half now it did drop back down on Thursday afternoon from 7 and a half down to 7 which is obviously a very key number let's start with my simulation my projection has Texas winning by three and a half points wow that's exactly where the opening number was and that's where my projection is so I do think the original number three and a half was very accurate I do think Texas will win this game but at seven or more there's value with Michigan the problem is it's hard to estimate how much Michigan really has fallen off this year coming into the season perhaps the least experienced returning team in all of college football in division one especially on the offensive side of the ball and it showed last week uh Michigan was not impressive against Fresno State they were a three touchdown favorite a 21-point favorite they won by 20 30 to1 now the defense played well again and I do think the D could be pretty good this season they're just loaded even with all the players they lost to the NFL but the offense is a concern they only threw for 121 yards last week against Fresno they only outgained them 4.4 to 4.2 yards per play uh they were equal in first downs they were only four for 11 third down efficiency Now Fresno could be a decent team this year um and they are a good passing team and as I mentioned in my solo video last week I thought Michigan would completely shut down the Run game they did so held fresna to just nine rushing yards but Fresno threw for 235 yards but it is a good passing offense which could be one of the better in mid- major football this season uh but still Michigan does look down a notch I think it's an overreaction from week one though the line was three and a half now it's 7 7 and A2 once again I think it should be three and A2 so as long as it stays seven or more I would lean Michigan with the value although I'm hesitant because once again I do think this Wolverine team is going to lose multiple games and keep fact their season win total projects three to four losses this year and this probably will be the first of a few losses for the defending national champs um as far as the total in this game you know I do think that Michigan offense is down and not Texas by the way looked lights out last week 52 nothing against Colorado State um I gave you a free play on Texas right here in the solo videos last week on wager talk TV and be sure to check out those Standalone videos I've got one for the late night Saturday game Utah State USC free play in that game as well so I do this top 25 video These are the high-profile games but I also do some of the additional games for Standalone free play videos so yet another reason to click subscribe and hit the Bell as well for inst alerts when those free play videos go up throughout the week in football and also baseball as I record this video on a mere 21-6 baseball run the last few weeks wow don't sleep on baseball even though football is here as far as the total here it opened 45 a half down to 42 and a half so once again I think that's a reaction to how weak the Michigan offense looked last week so if you think they turn things around you're getting some line value um but I would still lean under I would lean Michigan um but once again not sure it's going to make the best bet card because the Wolverines do look a lot weaker 14 Tennessee vs #24 NC State offensively right now compared to last year all right that game's at 12 noon Eastern your other top 25 matchup goes at 7:30 Eastern Saturday night this one is on ABC national TV in Charlotte North Carolina number 14 Tennessee at number 24 Inc State well versus number 24 NC State in fact if you're trying to find this on the wager talk live odd screen you'll have to go down to the right in games because it got bumped from the regular rotation because they reversed NC State in Tennessee they flip-flopped it even though it's not a true home game for NC State they flipped and put them on the bottom it's now on the added board being played in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte uh so once again if you're looking for this game you got to go all the way down below the extra games to find the odds on the live odd screen just a little tip in case you're wondering why it says canceled on the main board it wasn't it's just uh they switched the Home Road um rating I guess you could say for the two teams the way they listed it in the rotation order first let's start with our simulation 10,000 games simulated through the database and on average I've got Tennessee winning by just 6 and 1/2 points and I say just 6 and 1/2 points because as you check this on the wager talk live odd screen you'll see once again the Line open 6 and a half exactly where my ratings were and it's now currently 10 across the board so money's coming on Tennessee it's fully understandable why they blew out um they blew out their their opponent in first game Chattanooga 69-3 38 Point favorite they won 693 they were up 45 nothing at the half my friend Tom Alexander from ESPN Radio Alabama pointed this out to me a few weeks ago that the best first half point spread record in college football the past few years has been Tennessee over 65% against the number and they were up 45 nothing they covered the first half again so if you do like Tennessee don't be afraid to play them early they do jump on especially bad teams early but teams often make an adjustment at halftime and I do think this point spread is inflated So based on line value at 10 or more I would be leaning towards NC State but definitely full game because Tennessee once again has been a monster in the first half here in recent years so they could get off to a fast start might present a good in-game betting opportunity you know if you can get plus 14 or plus 17 with NC State ingame if Tennessee gets off to another fast start that's when you maybe want to pull the trigger because once again I project just a six and a half but basically a touchdown win the line has gone from 6 and a half now up to 10 so I think it's getting a little frothy especially if it hits 10 and a half or more over under hasn't moved much open 59 a half it's up to 60 A2 the real question in this game isn't if Tennessee is good they looked really good last week it's what we're getting from from NC State um kind of a lackluster 38-21 win against Western Carolina as a 32-point favorite um NC State actually was tied at the half in that game they trailed entering the fourth quarter as a 32-point favorite so that's yet another reason this line has moved um three and a half points higher NC State did have a solid 28 to6 first down Edge and they had over 500 yards of total offense out gained to almost 200 yards but they did have some interceptions I believe they had three interceptions in that game and that was the difference um so we got to see better quarterback play from NC State but I do think maybe a bit of an overreaction based on last week's results at 10 or more there is some line value with NC State at 7:30 Eastern Saturday night now those are your two true top 25 matchups for week two this Saturday September the 7th but I always go deeper for you I always try to give you as much info as possible on these videos and by the way if you're liking it if you're appreciating it quick thumbs up like click it boom thank you right there that keeps his content free hey also comment below I read all the comments I reply back what are your thoughts on these top 25 games what other games are you looking at in college football do you think Michigan is really down so much this year where they might lose three or four games like the season over under wins project let me know your thoughts on Texas Michigan also that NC State tenness game and other games you're looking at comment below I read the comments and I reply back right here on wager talk TV here on YouTube let's look at two bonus games 3-Day All Access WagerTalk Promo for you before we do so quick reminder the three days for $49 special is still available on my page right now wagertalk.com that's not just College that's not just NFL it's not just baseball it's all sports all inclusive and I bring that up because yes I number one ranked the past two years combined in college and pro football ATS profit and we're going to keep it going with a huge weekend here not only week two college but week one NFL but don't forget about baseball as I record this video I'm on a current 21-6 baseball winning run the past few weeks and it continues with Daily Baseball Best Bets even now that football is here we've got September and October baseball so the one-ear special is available on my page right now $800 discount gets out gets it down to $3 a day about a doll per play for All Sports all access promo code SM 365 by the way that's on my page go check it out SM 365 gets you a full year 365 days and nights for less than $3 a day less than a dollar and a half a play baseball basketball and football now if you want to try a smaller package we do have a 3-day sampler this week discounted down to 49 normally 69 but if you go to my page Steve marow wagertalk.com you'll see the 3-day package available for just 49 that gets you baseball college football and pro football so no matter which option you choose don't miss out on some great all sports client Best Bets As baseball is just smoking them and I've been consistently strong in football for decades great time to be an all sports client whether it's the three-day sampler or the one-year big boy don't miss out Steve Mar wagertalk.com get there quicker with shortcut wtbs SM oh by the way I post free plays every day in either football or baseball as well bonus free plays on my page each and every day with analysis all right let's look at two games just a bit outside for making the cut top 30 games if you will and these games really did just miss the cut for top 25 action and if the underdogs the road teams pull an upset in either game they will most surely be ranked next week we'll start off at the one game at 3:30 Eastern on CBS number 29 Iowa State at #21 Iowa 2129 Iowa State at number 21 Iowa obviously an instate rivalry they play every year and let's talk about the Iowa hawkey just a fascinating team you all that watch my solo videos last year know that I was fascinated by Iowa how low the totals became and how bad their def offense was but how great their defense was I've never seen such a dichotomy between offense and defense and they were just an under machine last year just repeatedly going under they were setting the totals in the 20s at the end of the season they were still going under in fact to put this in perspective they did not score in their final two games of the season last year they lost 26 nothing to their playoff game against Michigan in the Big 10 championship and then they lost 35 nothing to Tennessee in the bowl game but then they came out and scored 40 points last week in their opener with the new offensive coordinator and shut out their opponent 40 to nothing in Illinois State now they were 21-point favor but still an impressive showing for a few reasons first of all the defense is loaded again this defense was as good as any in the nation last year and according to my metrics they're the second most experienced unit returning this year so they they really are going to be the best defense in the country they showed it last week shutting out Illinois State holding them to 12 first downs just 56 rushing yards but what was more impressive is the 40 points let's put this in perspective this is once again an Iowa Hawkeye team that was shut out in their final two games last year and did not come anywhere close to scoring 40 points except for one game last year I believe Western Michigan they put up 41 but that was the abnormality because they had 20 or less in most games in fact overall in the season last year they averaged 15 points a game let's put that in context they played uh what was it 14 games last year and they averaged 15 points a game they averaged only 18 the year before but they gave up only 15 and 13 on defense the last two years also keep in mind the 15 points average last year included some defensive scores their offense averaged even less than that so the 40 points last week very impressive and that's a good sign that maybe they've turned things around for inst is still there it's 26th year or whatever it is but his son is no longer the offensive coordinator could this be the buy sign for the Iowa Hawke guys well I think it might be and uh this is definitely a play on team for me right now and that would be my preferred side in this game um the over under around 35 um Iowa unders are still worth a look but if this offense is really improved it might not be a sure thing anymore but I do like Iowa minus 3 as a point spread and that's the current line by the way three across the boards at the wager talk live odds screen and my database simulation projects Iowa to win by S and A2 points on average in this game so we are getting some solid line value with the io Hawkeyes at minus three or Less on Saturday afternoon and once again comment below do you think this Iowa offense has turned things around um they were very balanced over 200 yards rushing over 240 yards rushing in passing 492 combined yards in that first game against Illinois State really nice showing we'll see if they can step it up against a better team now um but I think Iowa minus 3 does have some value here on Saturday afternoon all right let's 28 Boise State at #7 Oregon look at the one other bonus game and this is an interesting game late at 10:00 Eastern Saturday night number 28 Boise State against number seven Oregon on the road number 28 Boise State going to Eugene Oregon number seven ranked uh Ducks and the Ducks did not look good by the way it's 10 o'clock Eastern on peacock if you got your subscription still from the Olympics you still get peacock and you can watch this game on Saturday night all seriousness though Oregon did not look all that great in their game against um Idaho on the scoreboard at least 2414 very lackluster win is a huge favorite um so you dig a little bit deeper though you realize maybe a a little bit misleading because Oregon did move the ball pretty well offensively but keep in mind they were a 49-point favorite against Idaho and they only won 21 24 to 14 also keep in mind this is a team that put up over 80 points it was against Portland State was it last year the year before in that season opener so only put up 24 points as a 49-point home favorite is definitely a notch down for the Oregon Ducks we dig deeper in the Box Score we see they did have 487 total yards threw for 380 not much rushing just 107 5.7 yards per for played Just 4.6 for Idaho El gained on 487 to 2117 but just one turnover one fumble loss and only 24 points is a concern because Boise could be a play on team this season in fact um in the Futures markets there's a lot of sharp money this summer on Boise season win totals over Boise to win the national championship and I don't think they're going to win it but they'll probably have a good chance of making the 12 team playoff as one of those um you know now non-power conference schools so there was some sharp money on Boise State futures for playoff action season wins over so could they could Oregon be on upset alert well we'll see I mean this is a big number uh currently as we check the wager talk live odd screen we see that theed ducts are about 21 Point favored across the board uh 21 Point favorite in Oregon for this late night game my power ratings my database simulation rather makes a projected power rating of 19 a half so at 21 or more I do think there's a little bit of line value with Boise State especially if Oregon is down more than maybe we roll this year and that first showing last week not very impressive maybe they went vanilla maybe they were keeping some things in check here for this a big game against Boise State but we'll have to see but once again at 21 points or more which is the current line I would rather be on Boise and my database simulation projects just a 19 and a half Point win as far as Boise the concern is the defense they gave up 45 points last week against Georgia Southern but it was an impressive showing offensively to say the least 56 to 45 um at BO Southern at Georgia Boise Southern Georgia Southern as a 13-point road favor that was a difficult situation for him to go play in an unusual sit unusual Stadium unusual travel to the east coast and now going all the way back to Boise and then Oregon I am a little concerned with the travel situation but still three touchdowns gives us a lot of wiggle room and obviously we have back door cover potential with an offense that can put up 56 points like they did last week uh this Boise the offense looks pretty potent this season and they had almost 600 yards actually they did they had over 650 total yards of offense so Boise State a play on team and they have some good backdoor cover potential just a little concerned with that defense because they did allow Georgia Southern to move the ball for over 500 yards last week um so maybe the over is worth a look you know Oregon yes only they had 24 points but they moved the ball pretty well offensively with over 480 yards uh so the over 60 may be worth a look this Line's actually dropped a little from 61 a half down to 60 A2 and um once again I do think uh at 21 or more Boise he definitely has some back door cover potential to keep the game close all right those are the four biggest games at least the four top 30 head-to-head matchups this week week two Saturday September the 7th comment below let me know your thoughts what else are you looking at on this football card where do you agree or disagree with my game simulation if there's any other games you want to ask about let me know I read all the comments I reply back once again I try to send these simulations when you guys ask I know many of you did last week I love the feedback if there's a particular game you're looking at that you want some Insight if I have some insight I'll let you know if it's a pass I'll let you know as well let's learn and earn and win together and once again if you want my official Best Bets the same Best Bets that are number one profit earned ATS the last two years combined NFL and college football the same Best Bets that are on a 21- six run in 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