2024 College Football Week 1 Picks and Odds | Top 25 College Football Betting Preview & Predictions

Introduction colle week one football is here and there are three head-to-head top 25 matchups this weekend covering both Saturday and Sunday games I'm going to give you my 10,000 game simulation my projected winner and margin for all three of those games and to also give you some free plays and let you know make some money the three biggest college football games in my top 25 report here coming up with complete analysis hi this is Steve Marl wagertalk.com right back here on wager talk TV and look it's week one a lot of non-conference matchups but we have three top 25 head-to-head matchups still for Saturday and Sunday all three on ABC national TV high-profile games let's 14 Clemson vs #1 Georgia start with the first one at 12:00 noon Eastern on Saturday an early kickoff perhaps the best game of the entire week and that's Clemson and Georgia in Atlanta Mercedes-Benz Stadium technically a neutral site uh Georgia might have a little bit of a fan base here but we know Clemson's going to travel well also and this is a rematch from exactly three years ago opening week weekend of the 2021 season in which Clemson actually came in as a 2 and half to three-point favorite even though Georgia spanked him well they didn't spank him it was a 10-3 win but they just completely shut them down with that strong defense Georgia held Clemson to just 180 yards on those three total points despite being a three-point dog that was pretty much the end of the Clemson area you know Clemson won the national title last in 2018 and then they had back-to-back Bowl losses in 19 and 20 and then got off to that bad loss in the 21 season as a favorite meanwhile it was like really the Catalyst for the Georgia Bulldog Powerhouse that we've seen the last three years Georgia won back-to-back national championships starting that season in 21 and 22 they missed out last year despite being the best team in college football in my opinion because they lost that conference Championship Game to Alabama as a favorite and got left out of the 14 playoff that would not be the case this year at the 12 team playoff Georgia very well might have gone on to win their third straight national championship so they have a chip on their shoulder in this game but they're now a 13 and 1 Half Point favorite is the number too big well I run 10,000 game simulations through my database each week takes several days to do so crunches all the numbers all the different variables and possible outcomes and on average my simulation has Georgia winning by over 17 points in this matchup so the line actually is not high enough and it's below that key number of 14 so at 13 a half or less which is the current line of the wager talk live odd screen there is still value with Georgia here as once again my projection is a 17-point win did a solo video earlier this week on this game in which I talked about the over under total be sure to go back and check that out as well and I mentioned the under 48 and a half might have some value because Georgia historically has been a stout defense year in and year out especially in these openers you know I talked about how they held Clemson to just three points on 180 yards three years ago well keep in mind the year after that their second National Championship season two years ago they held the Oregon Ducks to just three points in the season opener um so Georgia once again is really strong defensively out of the gate and with both teams having a full month to prepare neither team playing yet defenses are also usually a little bit ahead of the offenses so I would leave under one under 48 A2 and also there is line value at 13 and a half with George as I project a 17-point win which which looks like the best team in college football all right let's look at the 7 Notre Dame at #20 Texas A&M other game on Saturday the other top 25 matchup and this is at 7:30 Eastern Saturday night on ABC national TV once again and that is Notre Dame and Texas A&M this is a true Road game for Notre Dame at Texas A&M Aggie's open his low as a onepoint favorite it has been bet up to minus three and it's crossed right over my simulation number 10 000 game simulation has Texas A&M winning by two points on average so I do have A&M winning this game uh but not by more than two so the plus three is tempting now with Notre Dame and it's such a key number it's only one point in line value but football is unlike basketball every Point's not the same and there's about a 9 to 10% chance that A&M is a favorite will win this game by exactly three points so the difference from plus two in my simulation to plus three with Notre Dame does translate to some line value here with the Irish I think there's also a couple things in the their favor first of all Mike Freeman their Marcus Freeman rather their head coach is his third season a lot of times the third year is the breakout year and he's done pretty well going 19- s the last two seasons including a solid 10 and3 season last year and of course um this is another Dame team that year in and year out has a lot of talent now they did lose some key players on both sides of the ball a little bit of inexperience in fact Texas A&M RS is the mo more experience unit on both offense and defense but it's the first year for new head coach Mike Elco and with with no games under his belt that could be a disadvantage so I think overall A&M is the better team they're going to probably have the better season but here in week one now that this Line's climbed a bit it looks like there might be a little bit of line value with Notre Dame at least based on my database simulation the over under is opened 49 it's been bet down to 46 that also probably helps the underdog a bit if it's a lower scoring game makes it a little bit easier to stay within the line and once again the sharp money is definitely on the under in this game early on knocking the number from 49 down to 46 and we'll see how this one plays out once again at 7:30 Eastern on ABC hey those are your two Saturday games one daytime one night time both on ABC while we keep it going with ABC Sunday night football I'm going to have that for you in a moment between LSU and USC just a quick reminder do me a few favors if you're liking these free videos if you're liking my weekly college football top 25 and I will be doing this every week projecting to get it up on Thursday night into Friday for you you have extra time to use the information then give it a thumbs up a like it's free it's plentiful thumbs up keep all this useful information coming to you daily here on wager talk TV and make sure you click subscribe as well I know most of you already have over 160,000 subscribers but also make sure you click the Bell when you hit the Bell you get instant alerts when this video goes up each and every week and you also know earlier in the week when I do my solo videos I mentioned that I did the Georgia Clemson game earlier this week and talked about the total we don't want to miss those free play videos for baseball also baseball's been incredible entering the weekend almost an 80% baseball run the last couple weeks over 65 5% the past month ranked number one at in MLB profits at wagertalk.com I know we're talking football we're all excited about the football season but don't sleep on baseball we got two more months to go still through the World Series so why not get in all sports all access you never miss a play or a sport on any given day in fact right now we have a two-e special where we're throwing a third week in for free at wagertalk.com it's a 21-day All Sport all inclusive special that gets not only college football this week NFL next week with the start Major League Baseball every day the next 21 days and nights of college and pro football and baseball for less than $10 a day it works out to less than $5 a play for my strong Best Bets in all sports every day Steve Marl wagertalk.com and while you're there check out my daily free plays I post a free play every day as well on the site no promo code needed Steve Marl wagertalk.com you can get there quicker with shortcut wt.mc at your Sunday night game 23 USC vs #13 LSU Standalone September 1st game Sunday night 7:30 Eastern on ABC LSU USC another neutral sight game in Las Vegas Nevada at Allegiance Stadium home of the Las Vegas Raiders and this along with that Clemson Georgia game and maybe the Notre Dame A&M game this should be one of the best games of the week and right now LSU is about a 4 and a half Point favorite on the neutral field total has been bet up from 62 a half to 64 and a half by the way LSU opened his high as a six-point favorite in some spots earlier this year it's now down to 4 and a half and my database 10,000 game simulation has LSU winning by exactly 4 and 1/2 points so I think this line is pretty much where it should be um as far as the side goes so let's focus on the total how about I tell you an angle they went 22 and four last season well that was playing the over for all USC and LSU games if you had just played the over in every game for these two teams last season you went 22 and four and it was not a fluke these are two explosive offenses and two very shaky defenses and I think that'll be the case once again in this game now on the surface week ones you know sometimes the defenses head of the offense and we got two quarterbacks that have never started a regular season game before you'd say over 64 a half sounds risky but keep in mind it's also very misleading the quarterback's information because news Meer ended up starting the bowl game because Jaden Daniels a Heisman Trophy winner set out last year he got MVP of the game and had almost 400 yards passing and of course two years ago Caleb Williams won the tiesman for USC last year he set out the bowl game as well on his way to being the number one overall pick which means Miller Moss had got his first career start and he had six touchdown passes Lincoln Riley head coach for USC has a history of getting some quarterbacks to play uh just to name a few uh Baker Mayfield Jaylen Herz Miller mossell Caleb Williams um so I look for both quarterbacks to be two of the best in the nation yes they've never started a regular season game but they were both monsters in their bowl debuts last year and I think that continues against two suspect secondaries in defenses overall USC games averaged 76 points on average last year in rout to the 10 and three over record LSU 74 points on average 12- one over and once again I think LSU has improved maybe defensively but they're still very thin at the defensive tackle position also their secondary remains suspect I look for both quarterbacks to have big big debuts indoors on The Fast Track in Las Vegas and if you're going to play this game I think the over 64 and a half makes sense as they were two teams once again 22 and4 over combined last season hey let me know if you're finding this information useful comment below I read all the comments I reply back here on maor talk TV what other games are you looking at look this is a top 25 video the criteria is very simple I talk about top 25 matchups I'll do it every week here on this channel so make sure you click subscribe and hit the bell for instant alerts when it goes up each and every Thursday night into Friday but once again there's a lot of under the radar games what other games are you looking at this week in college football comment below hey include some analysis if you have time let's learn and earn and win together here on wager talk TV if you're finding the free information useful give it a quick thumbs up like and don't forget once again my personal Best Bets my strongest college football plays this weekend are available for my personal clients at wagertalk.com I also post a daily bonus free play in either football or baseball for you on the website and speaking of baseball don't sleep on baseball I know we're talking football but baseball on an 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