College Football Week 1 Picks and Predictions | LSU vs USC | College Football Today (PART 2) 8/30/24

Introduction college football week one it is here and we are here for it welcome into the college football kickoff show powered by wagertalk.com as we've got five upcoming games this weekend we're going to break down for you uh and we've got three of the best doing it as we welcome back in r1l Steve Merrill is in the house Brian Leonard here and TC Teddy covers in the house ready to dive into some of these matchups for week one in college football this is what is known as The A Team people this is the a team so r1l Steve Marill kick us off here man we're going to take a look at New Mexico which we've already had the pleasure or displeasure depending on how you bet New Mexico vs Arizona - Steve Merril that first game there uh of seeing New Mexico and Bronco menden Hall but we haven't seen Arizona yet interesting matchup uh here what do we think we're going to get in this one coming up yeah we had I mean we had more than four games left last week but we had four you know 1A games basically so the college football week zero in the books we do have some teams that have a game under belt of course Florida State's the big prominent one that plays Monday night against Boston College that game's coming up here in a moment as well on the show and there's always that debate you know how much of an edge is it to have a game under your belt versus a team that hasn't played we know in the NFL preseason those teams that play the Hall of Fame game normally do have a little bit of an edge in the next preseason game and those are backups basically college football of course there's no exhibition season there's barely any scrimmages outside of your own Squad so I do think New Mexico will show better in this game and um the line being 31 you know there is some maybe some backo wiggle room for them to cover uh but I'm going to still rely basically on my projections and my projections usually favor big favorites here early in the season um in games one and two even into games three sometimes and um I do have Arizona winning this game by over 34 points based on my database simulation which simulates 10,000 games variables all the different situations including New Mexico having a game under their belt so I still think this Line's a little cheap here um if you're going to play it I would prefer to lay it um New Mexico could be one of those teams that we look to play on later in the season Bronco Minal you mentioned the new coach you know former BYU UVA coach he's obviously an experienced veteran coach I think could turn this program around problem is I'm not sure he has the pieces in place especially early in September actually August still they' played two games here in August and I think this one will not go well if you're going to play it I would lay it with Arizona which is usually my recommendation with most of these big favorites in week one all right if you're going to do it late and that's the uh that's the way to look at this one Brian Leonard in the house and uh Brian Notre Dame and Texas A&M is Notre Dame vs Texas A&M - Bryan Leonard another one of these games we are all looking forward uh to seeing here because uh A&M it's a new era no more Jimbo thank goodness uh and Notre Dame of course put up a shut up here former coach versus former QB who wins this one yes interesting this Line open they a pick them and steady money is coming in on Texas saying them I'm taking it up to three but inter Dame's uh one of those teams that draws in a lot of public money so um if you if you're looking for uh Texas A&M and you don't want to lay three I think you may be able to get a little bit of a benefit by waiting you know the Irish played a relatively weaker schedule last year some of their traditional Rivals really had down Seasons that said this is still a very talented team Marcus Freeman's third year at the helm they have a new offensive coordinator and Mike Den Brock but the receiving unit is down from previous versions in my eyes as they had four highly talented players transferring out uh taking on this A&M defense right out of the gate I think it's going to be a struggle for this Irish team A&M was a much better team than the record showed last year uh there were a a different offense with Conor Wegman behind Center and when he was injured the team just didn't have enough Playmakers he's back this year from his broken foot which gives this team a big boost Mike Elco comes in he's the defensive wizard uh when he was here his in previous stops his his uh stop units were Elite and he brought that success to Duke as the head coach and now back where he feels home I expect them to have a really good stop unit this season it's uh going to be takes some time for this Irish offense to gel and the line lost two players early in the draft so I think the Irish if this game was played later in the season I may have a different feeling on it because I think the Irish team will get better as the year goes on but at this stage early on the Aggies have big advantages I believe the A&M coaching staffs knows the new Irish quarterback very well as he was a Duke last year I think that gives a big advantage to the management and the coaching staff from Texas saying them um and I think that's going to be a big Advantage knowing what the strengths of the weaknesses is are nobody knows it better than uh than the coaching staff here at Texas A&M now so uh if you can lay two and a half it's a great bet uh if you can lay three I still like it anything more than that I think I would wait because I think it comes back down so A&M is the side I prefer in this game all right A&M for Brian Leonard here as uh the coach to get the better of his former QB interesting start to the year uh for them as we welcome in TC Teddy covers and uh Teddy love this game uh for you Boston College vs Florida State - Teddy Covers here because I'm in the U country as you know and boy were they celebrating last week uh watching uh Florida State get their uh get beat up by Georgia Tech but now Florida state has a little shot at Redemption either a good thing or a bad thing Florida State has a game under their Bell taking on BC what is it to you is it a good thing or is it a bad thing against BC it's a little bit from column A and A little bit from column B Joe there's the positives and negatives to take away from it and certainly I mean let's be real about what just happened in Ireland the Florida state offense didn't work in that game you know um they had 58 rushing yards in the first drive and they got 40 more for the rest of the game they scored a touchdown in the first drive and then we're basically the shutdown for extended stretches thereafter DJ ulele couldn't do much of anything down the field um in his Florida State debut and let's not forget Boston College gave Florida State everything they could handle last year with what 3129 ball game so it's not like the recent history is blowout blowout blowout the recent history is you know Florida State won a last second field goal uh last year so it's not a scenario where there's been a huge class difference between these two squads and let's not forget the mistakes Florida State the the struggles Florida state had last week it wasn't turnovers zero turnovers in that game just one penalty in that contest all that being said it's all that's kind of make it and and Boston College a shorter flight you know uh FL St coming from from Ireland so you know there a lot of points towards a lot of arrows pointing towards BC in that ball game all that that being said for me it's Florida State are pass in this ball game Florida state has the game under their belts Mike Norvell talking about what he wants to do differently this time he said we got to have explosive plays all right they were conservative on third down they went to run the football instead of letting DJ drop back you know it was a game where they didn't really get you know what they have ja uh jaie Douglas and Malik Benson combined four catches uh for less than a 100 yards between them and of course AEM Williams May well play this week he set out last week's game and that's a big impact player for FSU against a Boston College secondary that in my mind has a bunch of question marks BC last year was not a good pass rushing team they weren't a good team at stuffing the opponents at the line of scrimmage and they certainly have a whole lot of questions in that secondary in this game with Florida State looking to create big plays in this game no argument here with the minus the points Argent here but the SEALs team total over that's the way I would look even though spot wise you know uh you can understand that uh maybe BC is in a little bit better spot than FSU I don't think they're the better team yeah I uh I'm with you I don't uh I think Florida state is GNA you're going to see a different version of Florida State this week against uh BC but that game of course uh is coming up uh Sunday or or is that game Monday that game's Monday right okay so we do have a game coming up Sunday uh that we're going to talk about here and we'll go around the horn with these two last games Clemson at Georgia if you're tuning in to check that out or LSU and USC we're going to cover both of those and I do want to let you know uh those of you joining us here for the first time on wager talk a shout out uh to those hitting us up on Tik Tock right now as well as those day drinking on Instagram we always appreciate you guys guys thanks so much for hanging out with us here but we do have an opportunity for you to buy two WagerTalk Special Offer! Buy Two Weeks Get One FREE! get one free this week and what a better time for that to happen right as college football underway NFL just around the corner postseason baseball all three of these guys hop on board all access means every play every sport for the next not two but three weeks you can partner up with them uh available on their pages over at wagertalk.com is a great deal guys it's a great way to partner up and build your bank roll early on in the football season so visit wager talk.com hit up r1l Steve Marill Teddy covers and Brian Leonard and hop on board today all right let's go to this Clemson Georgia Clemson vs Georgia - Round Table game coming up on H Saturday here because a lot of eyes are on this game a lot of people think that maybe Dabo this could be the year for Dabo especially if we're looking at uh let's say a down year for Florida State maybe they can pull it together here we all know Mario cryst ball is going to figure out a way to blow it for Miami in some way shape or form so maybe it's Clemson they got to get past Georgia uh and that would be a big step uh Merill there if they could do this this line has been coming down from Georgia 13 and a 12 earlier now we're seeing 112 48 1/2 as a total uh we did see this a couple of years ago I think it was a baseball game last time these two played uh Mercedes Benz though sort of neutral uh in Atlanta here but how are you approaching uh this game between these two powerhouses yeah Joe I think the big news here for Friday is that this line is coming down and the reason I say that is because I did a standalone video earlier this week on Tuesday I did my college football top 25 video yesterday on Thursday and of course I highlighted both this game and the LSU USC game we're about to talk about because I think they are the two biggest matchups of the week and this was sitting 13 and a half all week Georgia and my database simulation projects over a 17-point win for Georgia so I do like them in this game I think there's value and I'd said you know yesterday in my top 25 video that at minus 13 or less 13 and a half or less there's value because of that key number of 14 so wasn't expected to see a drop down to 12 11 and a half now in some spots but once again the move from 13 and a half to 12 is less than it would have been from just 13 and a half to 14 cuz 12's a dead number so it is dropping but it's not a monster move just cuz it's it's Crossing non-key numbers be shocked if it ever gets down to that number of 10 uh not quite sure what's behind the move here I do think the public might be on Clemson I don't do a lot with public data this early in college football of course my NFL fade the public will be next week for week one um but some of the replies I've gotten back so far my top 25 video are interesting a lot of people look like they're liking Clemson in this game so that gets me liking Georgia a little bit more as I mentioned I project a 17-point win um I'm not playing against which I think is the best team in the country and you refer that game three years ago was back in the start of the 21 season you know Clemson had won the 2018 National Title they'd won two out of what was a three years they lost the 19 and 20 bowl games and then they lost as a favorite in 21 they've really kind of been downhill since Clemson was about a two and a half to three-point favorite in that game three years ago they lost 10 to three nothing misleading they only had 180 total yards the very next year Georgia held Oregon to just three points so this Georgia defense will come to play I like Georgia and I like the under as well so it'll uh it'll be interesting BR big a lot of questions uh about dbo and the OC Riley being able to get on the same page D's very conservative uh many people feel like he's just handcuffed him uh on the kind of offense that he wants to run with Cade kumnick uh that's all fine and Danny but just win the damn game uh and nobody will talk about that kind of crap so what are the chances Clemson can go in and pull the upset here like Steve I also did an end individual uh video on this earlier and uh I also liked Georgia and it was 13 and a half of the time I didn't want to lay the 14 and it has gone down I think the reason why it's going down is because there's some controverses out there that uh George is going to suspend a few other players who were involved in some offseason trouble uh I haven't seen it yet but I think maybe the wise guys are trying to get ahead of that a little bit uh cor Steve corrected any anything before between the 13 and the 10 um is really dead numbers but still it may be one of the reasons why it's happening my concern with Clemson now deil Sweeny says he doesn't believe in the portal he wants to recruit his own players um if that was to work you would think last year when he did it his team would have had an advantage over everybody else early in the season but yet Clemson got off to a bad start and played much better at the end of the season which is something you would think with a lot of newcomers coming in that that would be what would happen uh but the advantages they had in the first half of the Season didn't work out for them uh I read an article saying that out of everything that uh bringing in new players bringing in new players that weren't in the program the year before doesn't mean nearly as much as it does to recruit your own players so da may have something in that regard that everybody else doesn't have if you go back and look the only other teams obviously that don't bring in recruits are the uh the military schools and they seem to not have a problem year in and year out they're they're always uh very good football teams considering uh what they have to play for uh so maybe Clemson will be a little bit better at the beginning of this season than the past uh but it's a situation for myself where I prefer the Georgia side especially if if you're laying less than 13 and stepen M on the way out they you kind of like the under I kind of like the over here uh I don't think either defense is going to be as good as last year and I Georgia is usually one of the best best defenses in football I believe they're ranked eighth this year but the CL Clemson defense is suffered some attrition I don't think they're as good and both quarterbacks you know I really like both of them Georgia may have the best quarterback in college football uh so this game over I even though I like George in the game I think this game over is probably a pretty good bit as well liking the over in this one Teddy I came across a number I couldn't believe but I guess it makes sense right Georgia 40 and 16 since 2017 against the number when they're laying less than three touchdowns or more this is usually the kind of price range where Georgia blows the team out and they proved their dominance here is it just some same old same old here for Georgia or are we expecting something different so I'm going to make it a trifecta uh ter looking at the Bulldogs as opposed to the Tigers uh in this ball game I mean we've seen what happens in recent you know Clemson had a hell of a run they had Deshawn Watson and they had Trevor Lawrence all right two truly Elite quarterbacks they had them both for extended stretches and davo swy took advantage of that is kumnick in that level maybe but I haven't seen it Clemson stepping up in class Clemson season openers Clemson extra time to repair let's see they lost his chalk last year 28 to7 in the season opener that's seven points they scored they lost to Georgia in the season open in 2021 we talked about that game earlier um certainly Merill did and that game could have been easily much worse it was 10 to three Clemson had 23 rushes for two yards and obviously there was sacks in that mix but they could not control the line of scrimmage against Georgia in that last meeting I don't expect that to be different this time around eight punts for the Tigers in ball game look at Clemson with extra prep time let's see the bowl versus Tennessee last year oh they lose by 17 the bowl versus LSU oh they lose by 17 the bver Ohio State oh they lose by 21 that's not pro davo that's not pro Clemson we heard Marl talk about the Georgia 49-3 winning against Oregon in the season opener in 2022 you know Georgia we would expect them to be ready we have that recent history and when it comes to total in this game so I'm looking at the Georgia side Clemson team total under is the one way I would look at here total wise all right I'm not convinced that Clemson's gonna control the line of scrimmage against georg's defense I believer in the Bulldogs defense and even with a theoretically Elite QB like clnc for the Tigers I still got my concerns about the receiving core I'm not convinced they're going to March the ball up and down the field so I like Georgia I like Clemson team total under that's my take for this matchup on Saturday oh kind of like uh like that there you go you got three takes there are one of the big games coming up this week and Clemson taking on Georgia will Georgia uh be Georgia and handle their business here or is dbo got some up his sleeve this season here out of the ACCC we shall find out we do LSU vs USC - Round Table have of course a game I believe a lot of you have been asking about on Instagram as well as Tik Tock uh and I believe sha Burks and others uh are dying to know what we think about this game here LSU taking on USC and if we're being honest here uh anybody heard a I haven't heard squat about USC all the hype this year uh leading into this season and nobody talking about Lincoln Riley nobody talking about moss nobody talking about about anything except how bad the USC defense was a year ago well I got news for you so was the LSU defense they were hot trash as well so I don't know Merl this seems like the easiest over on the board maybe we're overthinking it uh how much Faith do you have in the defenses in this game uh or do you do you think uh there's no hype around USC for good reason well I mean I'll debunk well first of all you can make a case for the under by saying the defense is usually ahead of the offenses early on right neither team has played yet we also have two quarterbacks that have never played a regular season game before but that's all bunk because they both played the bowl game last year for the two previous Heisman Trophy winners and they were monsters in those games news Meer for LSU by the way he just signed a deal with Power Aid he's one of like Five Guys in the country who's gonna be promoting Power Aid so they know he's the real deal they're putting some money behind them and after sitting in for Daniels in that uh liqu bowl last January had 395 yards three touchdowns and got the MVP of the game in his first start ever Miller Moss was even better for USC was incredible what was it six touchdowns I believe in his bowl game for Kaya Williams the previous hosman winner so these are two of the best quarterbacks in the country they're in the top 20 in Heisman odds at most books um so there'll be no drop off in my opinion defenses are more experienced for both teams but that's not saying much because they were so bad last year LSU games averaged 74 points they went 12- one over USC games averaged 76 points they went 10 and three over but they were 10- one over their first 11 to start the season so combined these two teams 22-4 to the over last year this Line's gone from 62 up to 64 range 64 and a half um but the over is the only way I would play the total as far as the side uh my database simulation 10,000 games has LSU winning by four and a half on average so I think this point spread is spot on they do look like probably the better team but there's still some concern on that defense on the secondary I think their defensive line the tackles especially might be a little weak this year so yeah both offenses should have the edge in this game it's also on a fast track in Teddy cover's backyard at Allegiance Stadium home of the Raiders um so yeah I think the over makes sense and as far as the point spread I think it looks pretty accurate so uh little birdie talk we'll have to qualify this with Teddy covers but uh if you're watching the TV on uh on Sunday you may want to look in there cuz Teddy covers might be in I'm just saying maybe in attendance he may be streaking in the quad across to feel we'll have to wait to see there Brian Leonard uh this game here I I mean I guess people forgot that uh yeah if it wasn't for Daniels last year in LSU and putting up a ton of points every game W it would have been uh it would have been interesting that season for him so defenses weren't great NES Meyer is like Merill said phenomenal in the bowl game uh Moss was great in the bowl game too so great offenses suspect defenses how do do you put this together in this one at a neutral sight yeah when you've got uh two teams that lost tremendous quarterbacks uh you would see you would want to see or expect to see a let down but I think both of these teams are very well set up offensively and the total uh I think is a little bit low here at 64 and a half I'd still prefer the over here um one thing I noticed when I lived in Cleveland I was there for the first you know years of my life is when teams from east of the Mississippi go to west of the Mississippi they really struggle I remember big 10 schools that were really good would go out to the West Coast and they never covered and that was one of my favorite handicapping angles well LSU has that same situation and although USC isn't playing at home they are playing in Las Vegas and they're very familiar with this city they have their basketball their tournament here in Las Vegas and so they've got a big Advantage here and you're also getting a USC team who has been just like LSU one of the elite programs in college football over the years where you got them off of a bad year in fact Not only was a bad year they lost five out of their last six games in the regular season before that extra rest and coming into that ball game and that gave that showed me a little bit of heart here for USC they could have just thrown it in in that bowl game and said well our season's over anyway who the hell cares uh but no they came out and they performed very well got the cover so I think the USC side is the way to go here I think both teams are very good teams very well coached teams and I think them being in Las Vegas is definitely going to hurt LSU in the traveling standpoint I prefer USC plus the points in this matchup plus the points and uh I mean I saw his Ste uh month ago as high as six I think is what we were looking at so the money is rolling in uh here the total holding strong at 64 a half now uh you may or may not make an appearance at this game here on Sunday from my understanding but uh what do you think you're going to see in attendance here is this better LSU fans travel we know this but is this closer to a home game for USC or what do you think you're going to get there so yeah I'm supposed to be at the game on Sunday assuming that I wake up I'll be there uh so yeah sharp money's on the yes for that kind should be a lot of fun Tony Finn uh coming in that that alone should make it the uh one of the more amusing uh days of the year uh but I want to talk conceptually about what I'm looking for when it comes to week one Wagers all right in college football it's not about players both these teams last year they lost a previous High winner you know Jaden Daniels uh for LS you and obviously Caleb Williams uh for uh uh USC and of course the top two picks in the draft all right it's not about players it's not about coaches it's about a team and more importantly how the team is priced in the marketplace all right people say oh this team's really good that team's really bad if the markets pric the team correctly it doesn't matter how good or bad they are we're looking for mispriced teams whether it's bad teams that are wor worse than the markets think whether it's mediocre teams that are actually pretty good whether are teams that are priced like they're Elites but they're only pretty good or mediocre tons of opportunities but week one opinions about how much better or worse teams have gotten the reality is that 130 plus teams 110 of them are going to be power rated pretty close to where they were last year you know there's probably 10 that are a touchdown or more better maybe 10 that are a touchdown or more worse but that's not these two teams USC is not a touchdown or more worse better than they were or worse than they were last year or LSU either so this game doesn't fall into any of those categories for what we're really looking for for week one so whatever bet we make for this whatever opinion we have it's going to be relatively small that being said boy you read the quotes quot coaches quotes for Brian Kelly and in particular both of these teams by the way with new defensive coordinators this year on the one side we have Blake Baker the highest paid assisted in college LSU poached him from Missouri this past off season Missouri's a defense overachieved last year and he's working with a lot more Talent at LSU than he did in Missouri quote I know we're going in prepared defensively our guys are excited to play for Blake there's not a lot of confusion or bust busted coverage guys know what it takes to play LSU football I'm excited to watch that play and of course lots of experience for LSU on the defensive side of the football USC we know they gave up what 34 points a game last year they went 4-9 against the spread just one and five against the spread away from home they poached UCLA's defensive Creator Danton Lyn Anthony Lynn's son uh former Chargers head coach and he's another guy who we like very much as a DC so week one we expect the offenses to take a have a little bit of growing paints to be a little bit of sluggish the statistical profiles for these team over over over over over over terrible defense week one I'm expecting some defense I like under here more than either side and if I'm playing the side I'm laying with LSU that's the defense I trust more and everyone's F talking on who do we trust what week one stuff do we trust this offense week one I want a defense I could trust LSU I know they weren't good last year I think they're a defense we can trust this year give me the Tigers give me the under on Sunday here in Vegas and that is the beautiful thing about the college football kickoff show here on wagertalk.com for those of you just joining us different opinions different angles same game knowledge is power people that's what it's all about making smart Sports investing decisions and maybe the smartest decision you can make today is to head over to wager talk.com visit r1l Steve Merill visit Brian Leonard visit Teddy covers take advantage of that buy two get one free two weeks turns into three weeks uh and that means all access so that's an extra free week of football NFL right around the corner college football is here people and we have got you covered take advantage of that opportunity and partner up with these guys build that bank roll it is a long football season uh and the opportunity for you to build a bank roll early on with these guys happens now not the mention the tons of free content we have including uh r1l Steve Merrill's top 25 college football video which is available on our YouTube page uh for those of you joining us on IG and Tik Tok welcome in make sure you guys head over to YouTube check it out plenty of great free content and videos there and then of course all sorts of great live content all week long here on wager talk on all the platforms so big shout out to those of you guys joining us Drew in the house uh over looking for locks I love those guys on a Friday everyone wants a lock on a Friday uh we also have uh plenty of folks there grinded at all times on Instagram pleasure to see you there bottom line is welcome back football welcome back to college football kickoff show and we are just getting started so don't let this stop here in fact just click on the video on your screen right now get access to all the breakdowns and previews and Best Bets for all the big games coming up this weekend it is just a click away on behalf of these guys best luck this weekend and tonight guys we'll see you again soon here on the college football kickoff show