Colorado State vs Texas Prediction, Picks and Best Bets | College Football Picks Week 1

making opportunity at 3:30 Eastern on ESPN Saturday afternoon in college football I'm going to give you a free play with analysis a little bit of an under the radar angle in this Colorado State Texas game that's going to make you money on Saturday hi this is Steve Merl wagertalk.com right back here on wager talk TV and there's a ton of big favorites in week one we see all these non-conference matchup power schools against weaker schools and this is one of them Texas looks to be one of the most talented teams in the country once again this season Colorado State still rebuilding their third year Under head coach Jay Norville so the question becomes not if Texas is going to win this game we all know they're going to win this game but are they going to win by margin by five touchdowns or more and I think they will if you're going to play this I would lay it with the Texas Longhorns currently aroundus 33 and here's a few reasons why uh first of all database simulation I do 10,000 games through my database every week for every game on the board all the different possible scenarios matchups and variables and on average I've got Texas winning this game by over 39 points so there is actually line value at minus 33 it's about a touch down short based on my simulation so I like Texas for the line value so then we dig deeper is there a reason for the Longhorns to win big well on the surface you could be concerned about a look ahead to Michigan next week maybe they go a little bit vanilla and normally that would be a concern but there's another factor that I think offsets that and is a reason why Texas will pull ahead and win this game by margin and that's the quarterback situation you know ERS returns after a fantastic season last year but don't forget Arch Manning one of the highest quarterback prospects coming out of high school a couple years ago is the backup he had a fantastic spring game and he is waiting in the wings and you know they want to get him some work and this is the type of game will he'll get some work and when he comes in they're not going to just have him hand off to run out the clock he's going to get some passing opportunities it's a lot like an NFL preseason game when we have a good quarterback rotation we always look to play on those teams well with big point spreads here in week one that's something else to keep an eye on in college football and the Texas Longhorns with Arch Manning in that rotation with uers two of the better quarterbacks in the country and they're going to both be playing this game which means Texas will not take their foot off the gas and let's be honest the Texas second string is probably still more talented than Colorado State's first string and especially their backups when things get out of hand so I do like Texas here minus the 33 the line is very reasonable I project a 39. win and I think we have a little bit of an under the radar X Factor there with Arch Manning coming in getting some work as well in the second half so you know normally you could say well maybe look first half they're going to go vanilla second half with Michigan on Deck by the way the first half line is 21 a very number full game is only 33 so I actually like the full game here as I think the second half with Manning getting some reps will provide them to pull away over a very mediocre Colorado State team that's your ESPN national TV game at 3:30 Eastern on Saturday hey I've got tons of strong College bet football information here on wager talk TV for you other free videos and of course my personal Best Bets are the games that go out to my direct clients at wagertalk.com know we're talking college football but don't sleep on baseball I entered Friday on a 16-4 80% baseball run over the past 20 plays and now football is here as well my first college football Best Bets this season go this weekend in week one and we are ready to cash in fact if you'd like to get all my plays for less than $5 a selection here's how 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