Western Kentucky vs Alabama Prediction, Picks and Best Bets | College Football Picks Week 1

there's a good money-making opportunity in the national TV game Saturday night on ESPN between Western Kentucky and Alabama it might be a mismatch on paper it's not a question who's going to win but who covers is a question with the point spread of course and I've got some good angles for you and some good analysis and a reason why you should play this game and make some money coming up free for you in this video in just a moment hi this is Steve Merl wagertalk.com right back here on wager talk TV and we're breaking down Western Kentucky at Alabama 7 Eastern on ESPN and of course it's the debut of kayin dbor he came over from Washington after taking the Huskies to the national championship last year in just his second uh season national championship game didn't quite get it done and of course the big story is no more Nick Sabin so yes we can look at the past history of Alabama as a big favorite and we will do so but we also have to look at theor history the last few years at Fresno and Washington and I think they both point to a reason to take Alabama and I'm going to give you the analysis here in a moment but first let's talk with my start with my database simulation 10,000 games simulated through my database every week for every game on the board and this game projects to be about a 38 Point Alabama win on average so the line might look big at minus 32 but it's not big enough it's about a touchdown short I project a 38o win for Alabama so now we dig deeper is there motivation for the Crimson Tide to lay it on a weak Lan like Western Kentucky and I think there are several reasons why there is first of all it's de Bo's debut at home new fan base he wants to make a statement Alabama's backups are probably still more talented than the Western Kentucky starter so even in the second half it's going to be hard for them to take their foot off the gas and Western kuy weakness last year and probably again this year defensively is a poor run defense they gave up almost five yards per Rush last season against mediocre opponents Alabama's going to smash the line of scrimmage and their backups will still dominate the line of scrimmage even in the second half uh let's look at the history of these two team these teams as big favorites are Alabama and the coach dbor as big favorites I should say last year Alabama wins by 49 over Middle Tennessee State as a 39-point favorite the year before that they went 55 nothing as a 42-point favorite so yes they do have a history of blown out weaklings at home in week one of course that was Nick sabbin different staff for the most part so let's dig a little bit deeper and look at kayin dour's track record as a head coach the last two years at Washington he came in and beat Kent State by 25 as a 23-point favorite two years ago and then last year he routed Boise State by 37 points as only a 14-point home favorite and we'll go back a little further he had two years at Fresno 2020 Co season only played like six or seven games but 21 was his first season at Fresno and he beat Yukon 45 nothing in his home debut game one as only a 28o favorite so Alabama's had a track record of blowing teams out in week one at home the fan base expects it and deor dor has had a history of doing it here in recent years at Washington and Fresno so I think that's a double play here and that's another reason to like Alabama plus the line value I project a 38 Point win so if you're going to play it you lay it with the Crimson Tide minus the 32 at 7 Eastern on national TV on ESPN Saturday night if you're finding these free videos useful be sure to click subscribe and hit the Bell so you never miss out I have a ton of different college football game videos this week also do Daily Baseball free play videos as well so click subscribe and hit the bell for instant alerts when these videos go live on wager talk TV my college football top 25 video analyzing the three biggest games of the week Clemson Georgia Texas ANM Notre Dame uscl LSU is on this channel as well NFL fade the public video starts next week for week one of the NFL hey speaking of baseball as I head into Friday night on a 16-4 80% baseball run the last few weeks and I mention that cuz I know we're talking football but baseball is still here for a couple more months and boy is it a great Money Maker NFL starts next week I've got several college football Best Bets this weekend for my personal clients at wagertalk.com it's quite simple if I have a play my clients get it as well and I'm very selective about two to three Best Bets at most per day so it's a fantastic opportunity to win with a longtime winner I've done this now it's my 29th football season as a professional handicapper and we're going to win big this year like we have for every other year that I've been doing this for decades now baseball in a 16 and4 run college football is here starting this week and my first Best Bets are set to go why not get my all sports all access buy two weeks get the third week for free it's a fantastic offer this weekend at wagertalk.com buy two weeks get the third week for free no promo code needed it's on my page right now Steve Marill wagertalk.com it works out to less than $10 a day that's less than $5 a play for every baseball college football and pro football best bet for the next 21 days and nights Steve marrow wagertalk.com and don't forget I post a daily free play as well a bonus free play games are just a bit outside for making the cut or on my page every day for free for everybody with analysis Steve Marl wager talk.com get there quicker with shortcut wtsm you can follow me on X on Twitter at Steve Marl to rs1 L on X at Steve Marill also on Instagram comment below here on the videos I read all the comments I reply back what other games are you looking at this week in college football include some of your Best Bets and Analysis let's win and learn and earn together here on wager talk TV and on the way out thumbs up like is also greatly 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