College Football Week 1 Picks and Predictions | Clemson vs Georgia | College Football Today 8/29/24

all right welcome in week one of the college football season is upon us we've got five games coming up in the next couple of days we want to break down for you here on a college football kickoff show powered by wagertalk.com in the house Ralph Michael who is going to step up first here the pen again I don't have any glasses for you R but what I do have is a game that a lot of people are interested in tonight Colorado taking on North Dakota State year two with Dion Ralph what are we doing with North Dakota State and Dion Sanders in Colorado tonight isn't it refreshing guys to be talking about an FCS game I don't think we've ever done that on college football but you know you take a look at the wager talk live odds page the shortcut is WTB ODS you'll see there are 19 FBS versus FCS games today there's 38 on Saturday and all 19 games tonight have sides and totals from every casino but one so these are actionable live betable situations you know Color Me foolish but you have one of the best teams in the FCS in North Dakota State they are uh preseason number two South Dakota state is clearly the favorite this year but we know the pedigree North Dakota state has they've gone on the road numerous times they know how to beat an FBS Foe and I look at this game while I lean North Dakota State my official best bet for the show is gonna be over 59 and a half we don't know what to expect from Colorado on defense with all the new transfers they brought in we do know that his son is going to have a very fast tempo offense he's not a afraid to throw the ball and he's not afraid to run up the score Colorado last year was a favorite of 13 and a half in one game and 23 points in the other guess what they covered those two games the total going over the total by 15 points and 23 and a half points North Dakota state is a talented talented offensive team they have a quarterback Who is number three alltime in career passing attempts number four all time in passing yards in cam Miller we have a three-year starter we have an experienced oine we have a dynamic offense that knows how to score points again who really knows what to make of Colorado except this they will play fast I think there's value in this 59 and a half as I was going through my totals this week I made it 64 it was not enough to get to the window but it was very close give me the over tonight Colorado North Dakota State matchup all right looking at going up and over shocker no defense in Colorado I don't think that's going toh surprise just about anybody uh right now but maybe just maybe Rob Vino in the house here ready to go feel like it's been a hot minute robino since we have seen one another and you are going to head to Morgan what better place than Morgantown this time of year here as West Virginia getting ready to take on Penn State I can't think of two coaches I trust less than these two rob uh so what do you think we're going to get CU a lot of money coming in on Penn State here all week long or rather West Virginia all week long yeah I'll tell you Joe I'll give you some numbers that were provided to me by our very own Ralph Michaels earlier today that you know maybe we would trust James Franklin a little more than we'd like to but let's start here West Virginia this is a noontime start it's not a night game in Morgantown but it is a noon time and it is a season opener so you can just imagine what that venue is going to be like and this team is in a home Underdog Revenge mode last year opening day 23o underdogs to this excuse me 20 point underdogs to this team and they get beat by 23 38 to 15 Penn State blew a couple makeable field goals in that game but here's the key to that one and we all remember it West Virginia scores to make it 38 to uh excuse me 31 to 15 and sneak under the number with three and a half left Penn State gets the ball on their final drive they get a first and goal situation with less than 45 seconds left and they don't kneel on it they ran two plays they scored the touchdown to get the cover which drew the ey a little bit of West Virginia but certainly made Penn State Alumni very very happy West Virginia was even in that game in ring yards 146 all but they were minus 170 in the passing game Garrett green really hadn't become Garrett green at quarterback at that point in time there were no turnovers in the game so green played pretty clean offensive football but you go back and look at the stat lines Penn State pretty much dominated West Virginia defensively hung in as long as they could and then of course lose 38- 15 Penn State gets the cover Penn State's loaded again on both sides of the football but if you want a nitpick they do have four new offensive line starters including the left tackle and the center which may be the two most important positions on the offensive line the entire group has some experience but West Virginia's front seven is arguably the strength of that defense so the matchup there in the trenches could be even a little better for West Virginia than it was last year and West Virginia's way further along offensively this year than they were last I mentioned Garrick green he absolutely grew by Leaps and Bounds as the season went on 79% of that offensive production is back for West Virginia they figure better to be better suited offensively this year to face Penn State than they were last I think you know the final look when you take everything into account here Joe you gota like the motivational spot for West Virginia um obviously I discussed it earlier it's a Revenge it's a great venue so we expect them to come to play all jacked up but while the situational might favor West Virginia I'm going to point out these numbers again that Ralph gave me Penn State head coach James Franklin as a favorite of up to minus 24 182 and one 90% cover rate up to minus 24 is a favorite if you go all the way back to any coach ly Vanderbilt as a favorite of seven or more he's 54 and 27 66.7% covers two out of every three money's cominging on West Virginia but those technical numbers and I'm not technical handicapper they're tough to Buck I think the Mountaineers come out early so I think I'd rather shorten this game up I like their motivationals I like their increased experience and talent I think it's a get in and get out special Joe we used that term on the NBA show an awful lot but I'd get in and get out here with West Virginia first half as plus five and a half thinking that maybe Penn State like last year can wear them out in the second half but um I'm gonna try West Virginia small play here first half plus five and a half all right there you go first half plus five and a half for Rob Vino there I think it should be an interesting one we'll learn a little something about both those teams at this point there Veno Drew Martin Drew Martin bets in the house ready to roll you're going to head to tomorrow night another interesting matchup here with uh the new ACC member I can't even say it it's so funny uh Stanford uh in the house taking on TCU I'm a little shocked with this uh with this spread here Drew how about you what are you looking at in this one oh I think he's muted a little busy there you go oh wait a minute no was he muted he's still NOP still not seeing nothing he's I can mime it out Drew because I have a feeling I know what you're going to say here uh very much so here but uh yeah we'll get Drew back on here uh with TCU taking on Stanford tomorrow it does feel a little strange saying it though doesn't it where Stanford hanging out in the AC now but uh it is what it is it's a different college football era here and I think we got uh Drew back Drew you got you got us have you recovered from Stanford and the ACC here I can hear you Joe perfect there we go we got him all right Drew's in the house uh there we go much better go ahead Drew tell us what you're thinking about this game all right how about guys Friday night 10:30 p.m. eastern time a little uh night cap before the strong Saturday slate on the farm here it's Stanford at home like my initial feel is like you know Stanford's gonna be very improved here Joe it's year two under Troy Taylor 18 returning starters um the only problem is you know kind of projecting in week one with some of these teams that are quote unquote supposed to be a lot improved is is it really going to happen this is a team that was three and nine last year oh and seven at home we know that Stanford doesn't have a great you know home field advantage by any means and in this type of profile if you're gonna go on the road for a fairly tough trip here you know from the state of Texas to California you want to be doing it week one I think that's kind of a plus towards TCU Stanford was only two and five ATS at home last year and they're up against the TCU team that yes down last year just five and seven missing a bowl after that National Championship Game appearance the year before I just like this offense I really do Joe I mean sunny sunny dikes at the helm they got Kendall BRS as the OC they just brought in Dana hogerson as well to help out as an assistant I feel that uh nine and a half you know it could look look a little bit tall but this TCU offense is going to look to push it we've seen it in the past so if they get Stanford down you know this could be one of those where it get kind of gets out of hand but again it comes back to week one if Stanford's very improved and can get get pressure on the quarterback it's going to be tough but if you're needing something Friday night I would lean you towards the horn frogs here and lay uh I think they win by doubles Joe You're Expecting by doubles I love that well it's got blowout city written uh all over it so uh there you go we've got a little something for everyone into week one of college football quick reminder here guys these guys are going to break down of course a couple of the biggest bets that are coming up and the biggest games quite honestly in week one we're in Clemson and Georgia get together and of course the U Miami taking on University of Florida and they're going to break down this game we're going to get thoughts from all three of these guys on that I do want to remind you also if you have not had a chance to head over to wagertalk.com and visit Ralph Michaels uh Drew Martin or Rob voo uh great opportunity to buy two get one free opportunity is in play right now get all access two weeks get a third week uh for free take advantage of that you got NFL just right around the corner these guys are three of the best in college football that we have at wager talk.com so make sure you visit their page and grab an all access package and get every sport uh every play that they have for the next three weeks for the price of two can't go wrong with that one as we welome back in the pen Ralph Michaels ready to roll here uh today and Ralph all right let's start with Clemson Georgia really ballsy ad Dabo to go ahead and plan this one out a couple of years ago and figure you know what let's start the season at the Mercedes menom and take on Kirby Smart and Georgia and let's see where we're going to be interesting test for both these teams but the market says they're a two touchdown dog do you agree with it well you know I think the last time Georgia didn't play at least one game in the Atlanta uh Atlanta do I had hair back then I think for eight straight years they've played in the in the Georgia doome so you know very comfortable I give them a point and a half home Edge I did go and look how AP number one teams do in their season opener they're actually 10 and four against the spread the last 14 Seasons but two of those ATS losses were at a 42 and a 52 Point favorite so let's turn it around when I looked at how a ranked team does as a dog of seven or more since 2008 in game number one like Clemson well they're only four and 12 straight up and seven and nine against the spread including only 4 and eight against the spread since 2012 so sometimes you think oh I don't want to be cute or it's Joe public to bet the AP number one but they've shown they've done a nice job now I am not a dabos Sweeney fan and I've gone on a few rants I think he's doing a criminal Injustice to his players to his coaches to the alumni and to the fan base not spending any nil money he has brought in one nil transfer in four years he just says I don't want to do it I want to build from within so while all these other teams are building these super teams year in and year out Clemson keeps dropping further back so while I am not a dabble fan while I'm not a Clemson fan in this situation I think Clemson comes in underrated with the season they had last year I actually think there is a little bit value with the Tigers I'm not gonna get there but I'm not a big college prop guy but I I've started putting it more in the repertoire I look at Carson Beck over one and a half passing touchdowns at minus 155 I think there's Great Value in the game where he has to play and he's going to play three plus quarters cuz it's like to be a competitive game he's going to get the opportunity to score best value best bet for the show Carson Beck over one and a half passing touchdowns minus a buck 55 I can't go wrong with that I know a lot of guys that have Beck in the Heisman future Market too as well shout out uh to uh our friends over on Tik Tok as well as Instagram hanging out talking some college football here today I believe at NFL bet is All About Georgia smacking the living crap at of dabos Sweeney Rob Vino uh don't know if you're on that page here but there seems to be this is what a great way to kick off the season right but careful I guess what you wish for with these two coaches no yeah I think so I mean dabo's got a point to prove here obviously um you know I don't want to say he's on thin ice because he's probably not but certainly the boosters the fan base the media down there not happy with the results posted by Clemson certainly last year so they need some improvement here um and maybe they get it Jo I mean for Georgia let's just take a look at Personnel here real quick we all know Georgia's loaded and they basically are at the point now where Kirby Smart just reloads every single year but they did lose their second best wide re wide receiver projected starter rahod Thomas got thrown off the team this past summer and they're probably going to be without their top two running backs let's see how lenient the Georgia Athletic Department is but their second leading rusher or number two running back um on the depth chart rodrik Robinson he's out he had surgery so he's out for at least a couple of weeks but the number one back Florida transfer Trevor ATN he's probably out duded with suspension now here's the key the University of Georgia he got cleared of charges they they made some kind of deal but the University of Georgia Athletic Department has a mandate that that 10% of the schedule must be missed by any player that is found guilty of DUI ATN found guilty of DUI so by you know definition according to the athletic department he should sit but it's still up in the air Joe and we're talking here on Thursday so who knows where they're going to land on this decision I would imagine they probably follow the rules and he doesn't play which means the ground game gets anchored by three number three and number four backs cash Jones Branson Robinson but the O is still among the best in the country some would argue it is the best in the country and they do have Carson Beck as Ralph mentioned and a bunch of talented wide receivers and tight ends I think the biggest question for me when you look at Clemson quarterback Kade kumnick and their offensive line against George's defensive front can they open up any holes to run the football against this team Clemson does have a veteran o back can they protect this kid because last year he did not look good in a lot of situations um he probably needs a running game to help with that protection if they can run it and stay in good down and distance situations Clemson could be in good shape here but if they can't protect them and they can't run it it's going to be lights out for the Clemson offense I think this Atlanta venue because it's it's semi close right I think Clemson South Carolina you fly into Atlanta to drive to Clemson um it's about 45 mile difference so Clemson fans will show up here and Georgia for what it's worth guys only 47 and one against the spread as a double digit favorite last year looking at my own power ratings I made Georgia 14 here on the neutral so the number seems to be fair to me Clemson's good enough defensively to stay in this game I think if you bet him you need a little bit of Hope here you need to have Club Nick not make any costly turnovers and on the other side of that coin you need to have Clemson make you know at least have one maybe um really key takeaway that helps to a score a big special teams play that helps them score a big offensive vertical pass that helps them score I don't know that they'll need a bunch to cover 13 and a half but they're going to need something that's the risk you take here with Clemson but I think it's probably worth a small play on Clemson plus 13 and a half all right taking the points right when in doubt how about it uh Drew dbo scares me man uh I you know I I think if he loses this game and loses it Big W going to be a very interesting season for dbos Sweeney but if he's competitive stays within a number and even wins outright uh given what we saw from Florida State maybe this is Clemson's opportunity to come out and set the world on fire this year do you buy dbo and Clemson yeah Joe I I'm kind of picking up what you're laying down I I wouldn't write them off you know if they can win the ACC they find themselves in the playoff I thought that um you know Ralph brought up a great point in terms of not using the nil and then uh Robbie saying you know his Dabo maybe not thin ice I actually would say he might be you know this is college football things change quickly and if he doesn't have a a a solid season he could be on the hot seat so that's kind of an interesting dynamic in itself I'll add on the fact that for this matchup Clemson two of their second starting secondary uh guys they might be out as well so that could kind of hurt them on the back going up against the Georgia team very talented all over the all over the field you know arguably the most talented football team outside of the NFL here and it's a fast track you know weather's not going to be an issue there in mercedesbenz stadium I thought both uh Ralph and Rob brought up good points in terms of just proximity to both of these uh campuses I've lived in Atlanta for eight years um Athens is almost like a suburb of Atlanta so it could work as a home game but Clemson's right there they're both going to travel well I don't know that I would put too much into home field advantage other than it's a FastTrack you know controlled climate I would more look at this I think Georgia has more Talent Joe so then it would come down to you know two touchdowns 13 in the hook do you really want to lay it I lean towards that side I really do I just think uh top to bottom of the roster it might be one of those games where it plays out competitive and then third you know start of the fourth quarter Georgia starts to pull away but if Clemson can turn him over a couple times stay in it this could be a surprising one I think we learn a lot about both teams here but in terms of uh kind of risking risking money week one this isn't going to check the box for one I'm going crazy with but um also how about that breakdown by Rob voo in terms of uh you know the legal system there in Athens Georgia for some reason they're always having issues it is a fun town I'll tell you that from personal experience I tell you what uh well you know you twoo going to have fun when the entire Sheriff's Department's on the payroll did I say that out loud I think I did uh say that out loud it's amazing what you can get away with there uh all right guys so there we go Georgia and Clemson uh one of the big games obviously coming up in week one uh for those ACC homers like Drew and myself you're a little partial to this next team here uh as the U is getting ready to start their season and nothing breaks me out in hives more than thinking about betting on Mario Chris Ball uh in a game in which he's a favorite in the swamp on the damn road uh I'm I'm telling you Ralph I'm getting nauseous just thinking about it uh cuz I really want to bet the you but I know how terrible uh the only saving grace in this is that Napier he's only expected to win four games this year so if uh if the youu could get lucky I guess maybe this would be the year they could go on the road and win a game in North Florida uh are you buying chryst ball in Miami over Florida well Joe one thing you have to remember is this Florida's only picked to win four games because they have the toughest schedule by far it is insane how much tougher their schedule is than than couple notches down so you know while you can't say Florida's gonna suck because they're playing because their win totals four you have to say Florida's win total is four because of the schedule they play you know last year Miami and Florida only played the number 59 schedule so they were not even tested and yeah you know I am semi buying into the Kool-Aid that this is finally the year in cristal's third year here and Charlie I mean Charlie Ward I mean we all I say Ward and I think back to Florida State and Charlie Ward so you know Ward comes over from Incarnate Word than Washington State and yes he's the most dynamic quarterback but there's still a lot I mean when you look at a run and shoot offense that ward has and what he had at Washington State there throwing a ball 75% of the time they have receivers that are accustomed to that I'm not sure Miami is so accustomed to that and oh by the way Joe you know I had to go to the database let's quantify what you said about christable let's see he's been here at Miami for two years he's eight and 17 against the spread and he's been a favored up to minus 10 six times he's lost two of those games outright and he's 0 and six eight ETS there is no way I'm backing Miami I am with you 100% Joe home opener for Florida nobody's giving them a chance but they still are a talented team they just had a defense that completely fell apart after six games and you know let's use a very cliche is on defense uh teams went through Florida's defense like knife through butter last year but that that side I think is going to help get picked up Miami having to learn a new offense with that quarterback I think they're going to struggle a little bit early this is one where I will take Florida for this is just a light opinion I'm not getting to the window on it but with Miami's new offense and the new quarterback I'm gonna give them um I'm gonna call them to struggle a little bit early I will back the gator first half in this one on the money line yeah I I mean I can tell you the chat rooms right now are all over that uh King cheese to is like mark my words Florida's going to win it time running out with a field goal just to put the dagger in the hopes and dreams of all the you fans here but Rob Vino uh how about it you think Billy Napier's got uh anything up his sleeve here can uh do you think he can pull out the outright upset here as a home dog or is this just uh the beginning of the end for the University of Florida and Billy Napier this year all right well I don't know what what the time stamp is on how long this show has run so far but it's run this far without me using the word over so we better a good point stop it right here Joe and I I think this game I I don't understand the downward trajectory even though only a point but why B it down from 55 to 54 to me it makes no sense um both teams are fully stocked skill position wise Graham Merz he was what he was at Wisconsin but last year in Florida um with Billy Napier as his head coach I mean 73% completions and a 20-3 touchdown to interception ratio and the entire skill position unit back this year that's pretty good numbers right there and Miami's well stocked as well Joe I'm surprised you don't have your Xavier Restrepo Jersey on because he's a number one draft pick at Wide Receiver right and I'll talk about cam Ward for a minute here and Ralph's absolutely right Incarnate Word air raid go to Washington State have your uh head coach or OC excuse me follow you to Washington State remain air raid oh all right I think we I you know what because he wants my Restrepo uh Jersey I think that's why there Veno all right I was going to give it to you but go ahead you're back go ahead talk to me uh pick it up I know guy wants the Restrepo jerse I'll give it to him go ahead Rob he's one of the best in that conference right um and I I will I'll go back real quick and just talk about Shannon Dawson the OC at got a ton of experience running air raid with West Virginia he both under Dana holgerson um this offense is gonna be tailored a little telling you man he's stuck on Restrepo man I don't know what it is in this offense this year I think we froze again no you got yeah we got you rob go ahe you got it okay I thought I froze again but he said there's going to be a little more uptempo in this offense to suit cam Ward so I think you give Cam Ward the Weaponry you give Cam Ward um the OC who's familiar with the air rate and it'll be just fine there is a question about offenses first week right we saw it last week SMU supposed to be this Powerhouse offense it didn't work out for Preston Stone and Company Hawaii supposed to throw points up all over Delaware state it didn't really work out for Timmy Chang and Hawaii so there's some year of stumbling out of the blocks but last year Florida averaged 28 points a game Miami averaged 31 points a game it's a big game for both I think the offenses are better than the defenses personnel-wise and with um Miami pushing Pace a little bit I think this game gets over Joe to me 54 is a little light I could see something in the 30 27 range here if that would fit to our chat which thinks that Florida will win by a field goal at the end so maybe it's Florida 3027 but I'm going to play it that way up and over 54 up and over uh 54 I knew vo would have an over in him when it was all said and done somewhere here Drew uh but listen Drew you know as well as I do the only thing more fun than delusional University of Miami fans the use back baby uh is absolute delusional University of Florida Gator fans they might be even more delusional than Miami fans here but something's got to give uh you got to love the talent at Miami it's the coaching my issue how are you approaching this game sure Joe yeah I love your point I mean being a living in Florida you learn a couple things about college football fan bases and one of them is you have mixed emotions you almost kind of root for some of them but at some point you bring up Florida fans you bring up Miami fans it almost brings a smile to your face when they're not you know all that great at teams because it kind of dampens uh uh the fan bases and and what they can really say but overall guys breaking this game down man talking about the Miami Hurricanes being in South Florida for more than half of my life it's just every single year oh the U is back the U is back and we're getting that again this year hey will it work out this is a great one to start off 3:30 on ABC in the swamp I can't wait for this one I'm actually talking about a mile away from the swamp right now in Gainesville Florida I would break it down this way Joe Florida is was one of the the youngest I mean if you go by the amount of freshmen they played they were the single youngest team in all of college football so coming back after that and adding a top 10 portal class in I think Florida's going to be one of the more improved teams in the country I really do not to mention they they returned their starting quarterback Graham Merz who just broke the school's completion percentage record over 72% last year a 20 to3 touchdown two interception ratio in the same system he should be in now Ward coming to Miami I think that that is a a great setup for the Hurricanes as well I'm kind of buying into it but to Rob's point you know who would be betting the UN the under the one angle I'll bring up is new quarterback new system week one on the road hostile environment it doesn't always work out well you know it would almost be better if they were playing this game for Miami a little bit later I think it actually helps the gator side of things and then coaching you brought up chrisop Bal Joe I mean in terms of game management he he's all recruiting in terms of game management I you you could make the argument he's the worst coach I mean that Georgia Tech game last year how bad was that we can't forget and he's up against Billy Napier who his tenure in Florida hasn't been great obviously but we can't forget he's a two-time all Sun Belt coach head coach of the Year this guy can coach um I think it sets up even better for the Florida Gators in their season win total which you guys touch touched on a little bit you could get over five at plus money right now they got seven home games um it's obviously a tough schedule SEC schedule for some reason they're scheduling Miami and UCF in there and they have to play Florida State so it no doubt about it the schedule's no joke but they got seven home games two winnable trips to Starkville and Tallahassee I actually like the Florida Gator season win total over and we get it at plus money and it correlates here with uh I do like the gator uh against the Hurricanes listen No Doubt the the swamp is an impossible place to play in uh and crazy things usually happen in the swamp and crazy things happen when Mario Chris Ball calls plays too but that's neither here nor there I kind of tend to agree with you I do think that number is a little low on Florida's win total over the season but there is uh no doubt week one should be a absolute uh rip here get starting tonight we got tonight we got Friday we got Saturday we got Sunday we also have the ability for you guys to partner up with Ralph Michaels with Rob voo with Drew uh and anybody over at wagertalk.com it's fairly simple buy two weeks of all access get a third free doesn't get any better than that that's three weeks to kick off the college football season as well as the NFL season in fact all access means all sports all plays everything that these guys play including Major League baseballs we get ready for the postseason and nobody knows it better than these guys here so the opportunity to partner and right off the bat build that bank roll this football season buy two weeks of all access get a third free that is the way to do it all right don't forget hit that thumbs up follow us shout out to those you guys Momo Tommy and company over on Tik Tok appreciate you guys welcome into the wager talk family grind at all times on Instagram hang in with us uh those of you joining us on X as well we certainly do appreciate it uh we'll be back again tomorrow we get another five big games that we're going to break down for you here on the college football tip off show but the best news is if it's individual game breakdowns you're looking for uh nobody has more of those than we do here at wager talk TV in fact just go ahead and click on that video on your screen right now and check out all the Standalone single game video breaking everything down with all the best bets that you need to know right there on the screen best of luck with the plays we'll see you again soon here on the