Kelley Ford Breaks Down K-State Football, the Big 12 and More!

[Music] this is Casey Sports Network proudly presented by m prize Bank hello and welcome to another threea pod I'm Cole mck your host today batting solo from the threea crew but that's okay as I'm joined by one of our favorite guests that we have on threea college football data scientist Advanced analytics expert Kelly Ford is with us today to talk case State football as well as the Big 12 Conference as we look ahead to the 2024 season which as we record today is only 68 days away but who's counting having Kelly on the show always calls for a toast from our friends over at holiday Distillery go pick some of the holiday distilleries Ben holiday bottled in Bon bourbon from your local liquor store and get stocked up for your tailgates for this season which is only a couple months away true story was over at my neighbor's place this past Saturday someone I consider to be a bourbon expert and he was giving rave reviews about the Ben holiday bottle Bond bourbon he bought recently so don't miss out go pick some up or grab some 360 bodat if that's your drink of choice Kelly appreciate you as always uh jumping on with us had you on a couple times last year like I said you are one of our favorite guests hope the summer is treating you well and uh I guess just to to level set our listeners that are maybe aren't as familiar with your work maybe tell us about your power rating statistical models how and when you got started doing this Etc absolutely Cole well thanks for having me I always appreciate it and I want to touch on one of your opening comments there you said 68 days till college football returns you know but who's counting over at k for ratings.com literally on the homepage we do have a countdown that is down to the second it started as soon as the 2023 national championship game was over and we've uh we're having it down so we're ready I'm right there with you I'm very excited as well but yeah really quickly you know about the ratings um I started them publicly back in 2019 it was uh but I've been messing around with it for a few years before that even so those that are listening and and enjoy my content potentially certainly will know Bill Connelly and Brian foro SP plus FEI those two guys to me are the Godfathers of college football analytics they are the best that have ever done it and probably always will be um so when I started out I was just really trying to mimic them the best I could you know research about them listen to their interviews read the things they were writing what goes into their power rating system because as someone who loves college football and also has a knack for numbers that is a lens through which I have chosen to view kind of initially at a 30,000 foot View college football teams and Conference races National Championship races things like that so starting out trying to mimic them certainly as I've gotten going here the last you know almost decade uh found my own way put my own spin on things kind of have my own Flavor now and the end product is the k for Ratings that is a power rating for every single FBS team so using Kansas State as the example from my preseason V1 ratings uh Kansas state has a k for rating of 14.2 so what that means is that by my model Kansas state would be favored by about 14 points two touchdowns against the average FBS team on a neutral field so you can find kind of the football points per game difference between any two teams in my power rating by simply subtracting their two uh K4 ratings and then applying whatever home field advantage you feel is appropriate based on the venue and that would be the k for projected spread if you will so I'm able to use my power ratings to then make game projections for every single game involving an FBS team uh you know you can project you know win total both overall and within the conference which then gives you an opportunity to evaluate you know the conference landscape the conference races which of course Kansas State in the new look big 12 here in 2024 certainly going to be a contender uh it has a really exciting opportunity in front of them to make it back to Arlington this year and repeat the feat from just a couple years ago um but what goes into them the last thing I'll say what goes into them in the preseason there's three things and again it'll sound familiar to anybody who's a fan of Bill Connelly it's returning production so how much of last year's team did you bring back and that includes transfers both in and out uh that's the biggest weight of the of the preseason component and then the second thing is how has your program performed in recent years so how good was Kansas State in 2023 how about 2022 2021 with the more recent years weighted most heavily and then also how how well have you recruited in the last few years and Cole I have tweaked this summer with a lot of back testing the weights of those three inputs because in 2024 college football uh it's much easier to turn over a roster in a single year given the transfer portal The increased usage of it and also now the uh the immediate eligibility of all student athletes as they transfer from one institution to another so maybe it doesn't matter as much in 2024 how good your team was two or three years ago than if we were having this conversation five six seven years ago so I continue to evaluate the model make tweaks make adjustments um I never want to make knee-jerk reactions but everything is is is based on back testing and historical data and what improves the overall accuracy of the projections as we get more and more data every single year into my database well I guess let's just start there because I was going to ask you about that we'll get into plenty of Casa talk and Big 12 talk as well here but I mean I guess how how much have you had to adjust your portal preseason projections due to the the transfer portal and players coming and going from rosters and and maybe how do you adjust or project guys making the move from the FCS level or group of five school to one of the power conferences and how do you translate the impact they can potentially make when you you're doing these preseason models yeah these are the right questions Cole and certainly I'll take them in reverse order there you know how do you adjust for different levels of opponents faced in terms of production because certainly if somebody's transferring from you know Eastern Illinois in the FCS ranks to Kansas State we can't expect that their production that they added Eastern Illinois is going to be equal to that which they would produce in Kansas State but similarly you know if you take uh maybe not of Kansas State but if you take you know maybe like a ball state in the Mac if somebody's transferring from you know Kansas State to Ball State well certainly maybe their production at Ball State might be enhanced from what they experien at Kansas State given the uh relative level of competition that they're going to be facing in the Mac as opposed to the Big 12 so I have scalers or modifiers um that again I back tested it's not an exact science you could only make it as good as the data that you have available but every single year I get more and more transfer data right and so those scalers those modifiers I feel more and more uh confident in each and every year so that is absolutely a part of the process to try to adjust for the level of competition bced uh how much production we expect somebody to be bringing to their new team also how much are they losing off of their old team so that that's taken into account and then you know how much have I changed the weights I would call it significant because in the world of analytics just a few percentages a few percentage points can lead to significantly different outcomes in the grand scheme of a zero to 100% we're probably only talking a couple points which might not seem like a lot but when you really dive down into it it can make significant changes over the course of 134 teams in the landscape of college football so I haven't gone crazy nothing wild again everything's been back tested and supported by the by the data that we have but returning production which was already the biggest input the most heavily weighted input has continued to see its portion of the pie grow as as I mentioned the two other factors the recent recruiting and your recent K forward rating it it still has predictive power and it still matters how you're doing in those areas but it matters less now because in in one summer in one offseason one spring you could turn over your roster at a rate that prior to the the common transfer portal era the the the usage that we see now it had never been done before we hadn't seen that level of turnover you you weren't able to take a roster that won you know one game last year and turn him into a bll team more times not over the course of one season now you can turn over almost everybody on that roster and so your your turning production and continues to be important the other two pieces are but maybe not so much by the way before I forget go to k for ratings.com check out all the Kelly's tremendous work over there again that's k for ratings.com or give him a follow on Twitter at K forward ratings that's K forward ratings Kelly's a Kelly you're kind of blowing up on Twitter here lately I think you soared past 15,000 followers are probably going to be on your way to 20K before college football season gets here well Kansas State fans have I I appreciate that Kansas State fans certainly have played their part there I I posted you know as as we're releasing all of the the team projection graphics and I started with the big 12 intentionally I put a poll out hey which conference do you want me to start with and the Big 12 one not surprising because uh a lot of my followers come from Big 12 country Big 12 teams um and so Kansas state is who I started with because I went kind of in the projected conference order there and then I did a quick little you know analysis of okay which posts as I post all the power four and I'm now into the group of five and all that which post got the most interaction you know the most retweets the most comments the most likes the most Impressions and it like it didn't matter which metric I looked at like Kansas state was number one so I appreciate that Cole I appreciate your listeners I appreciate the the Kate fan base um I would say you know no fan base out there is gonna is going to be 100% positive and fun to interact with but I will say Kansas State I mean you guys are bad what like 95% and that is unheard of on Twitter so I really appreciate the Kansas State fan base um it also helps that my my modelto each of the last few years has has viewed Kansas State pretty favorably right so it's easier to get behind something um that that is speaking positively about your team but I promise I'm not fudging it like that's just what it is and the fact that Kansas State fans are so great is just a a bonus for the the content that I'm well as always got to tell you about our friends over at HomeField apparel get on over to HomeField apparel.com and check out all of the great kstate year retro Sleek t-shirt hoodies Kate hats a Kate shooting shirt that John CT's on three M can't wait to get his hands on as well those retro hats that they have I think they got three of them on their website I'm rocking a retro copper bll shirt if you can see it on the screen I might have to adjust but 1993 copper bow shirt from HomeField apparel this is a long sleeve version of it I've also got a white copper bow t-shirt in my closet as well from the 1993 wiser loock cerw over by oming that Kansas State dominated tons of retro stuff a big eight champ shirt from 1977 Etc just as an example of some of the awesome retro gear that they have over at HomeField apparel.com so go get stocked up with the inner discount code three ma23 when you go to check out again that's promo code three ma23 and you will get 15% off your entire order no matter how much you buy so 15% off with discount code 3 M23 go check them out HomeField apparel.com we appreciate you supporting KC Sports Network by listening to our podcast you have helped us become the highest ranked Chiefs podcast Network in 2022 and 2023 and don't forget about our daily substack newsletter the best written analysis you can find on the Chiefs straight to your inbox every day kcsn dos substack docomo just the Heartland you know like it's kind of sad with where you know realignment has taken as because I think as you saw just Big 12 fans are passionate there's a lot of fans there's a lot of passion in this you know central part of the country and uh you know hopefully we can keep things on track here with college football realignment being such a challenge but uh you know things hopefully have settled down for the time being at the very least we will uh we will see there hey I I did want to Circle back Kelly uh you mentioned adjusting like recruiting looking back at the history and I think I asked you this before but as a refresher like when you look at Chris kimman even when you look at Bill Snyder coach teams often overachieving right on the level of recruit that they get you know they turn a two star or a walk-on or a three star into you know a potential five-star production at times Chris Kleinman has been tremendous as well at taking some guys that were maybe a little bit more under the radar and overachieving how how do you account for that do you look at that and see like okay they're taking this two star kid and they're making the production far greater than your average two car K two star kid that comes in and signs with the school I absolutely look at that and again there there's a reason that your your recruiting your recent recruiting rankings has the the least amount of weight assigned to it in the preseason portion of of my power ratings and that is because of things like you know uh not not being able to truly capture the the development aspect that's why you know your production itself is most heavily weighted because I don't care what your star was how how how productive were you on the team that's going to be most important what's your recent k for rating so hey when everybody's playing together here we're all moving in the same direction capturing that cohesiveness that development that coaching Talent how good is our team that's number two and then it's finally the high school recruiting right with the recruiting rating services and I don't just use one like there's there's a message to that Madness too but yeah I mean Kansas state is a team that if I look at kind of my weighted four-year recruiting rankings um is going to be you know top 25 maybe sniff in the top 20 but then if you look to see how good this team's actually been 2022 they were number 12 2023 you're number 11 20 uh 24 here in the preseason you're number 17 so you're consistently performing and and you're on field results are higher than that of your recruiting ranking if you will and so yeah that to me tells me one of two things that your your coaching staff is really good at developing the talent that's coming in um or you're finding those gems in the recruiting process that actually should have been higher ranked by these services but haven't been but again your your staff great at identifying that talent and then developing it once they get to Manhattan um and putting a really good product on the field year over-year there at Kansas State so um again no model is perfect mine included uh not even bills or Bryan's no model is perfect um it's a good approximation it's a good starting point for conversation about the quality of teams the quality of conferences things like that but there's certainly going to be things that a model cannot capture and the way a coaching staff develops Talent um is certainly one of those things it's captured tangentially kind of indirectly but not a specific input well let's look ahead to the you know case State specifically and then we'll talk Big 12 you've already mentioned some of the numbers regarding K State I was looking at the model again if you're a college football fan you can't get enough of this k for ratings.com you have K State with a 68% chance to win seven Big 12 games or more a 36% chance to win eight League games or more and I think a 9% chance Kelly to go unbeaten in the Big 12 which is the best odds uh just ahead of Utah at 5% chance to go undefeated in Big 12 play and you also have him as a 78% chance to win at least nine overall games and a 53% chance to win 10 plus games maybe just expand on that what does your model say about K State's chances to to win the Big 12 this year get to the conference Championship and possibly the college football playoff yeah so Kansas State like I said uh number 17 in my preseason V1 power ratings I've already started work on the V2 should be ready by about the end of June uh did a quick peek at Kansas State before doing this show here with you today Cole and don't expect a ton of changes for Kansas State so I I feel pretty good you know right there around number 17 is is is a good spot for Kansas State but it it's twofold with Kansas State because all those numbers that you just said those are right you can find them on the website k for rating.com under the Big 12 section and Kansas State's going to be right there because Kansas state by my numbers has the the highest average projected Conference win total at 7.0 so my model suggests that seven- two is the most likely Conference record for Kansas State but as you said 9% chance to make it 9 and0 you know a 36% chance to at least eight games um you've got you got a 68% chance to get to that seven win mark in conference play meaning there's a 32% chance that Kansas State fails to reach that it's the number one projection though in the conference seven projected conference wins Utah is number two at 6.5 and the number three is actually Arizona at 5.9 so there's about a 1.1 game buffer between Kansas State and that number three spot and again you just want to be in the top two everybody wants to be number one of course you just want to be in the top two give yourself a chance in Arlington in early DEC to win that game and then get the what is more than likely to be a top four seed in the cfp and that buy that comes with it it's going to be all important so the numbers really like Kansas State but it's not just because Kansas state is the best power rated team in the Big 12 it's also because the schedule that Kansas State plays is very favorable for Kansas State this year if we look overall at scheduled difficulty out of 134 or excuse me out of 68 FBS uh Power Conference teams Kansas state has the 63rd most difficult schedule so it is among the easiest schedules overall for any power four team here in 2024 using the V1 projections of course that can change as we get going in the year but as we're making these projections now I spend a lot of time looking at scheduled difficulty both overall and within the conference once the season gets going Cole I actually Dro those things off the dashboards because they no longer matter but they're great talking points uh here in the summer they also provide context for records at the end of the year so My most deserving rankings will certainly reflect the the schedule difficulty phase but more importantly for this conversation with Kansas State it is number 16 out of 16 scheduled difficulty within the Big 12 so Kansas state by my numbers has the easiest Big 12 Conference slate this year out of any team in that conference again it's a little bit tooold there Kansas State cannot play itself right because it is the most uh it's the highest power rated team in the Big 12 you can't play yourself you also Miss Utah which is really really important as Utah is you know the number two power rated team you get Arizona but that's in a non-c conference game I'm sure your listeners are are tracking that's actually it's such a a Nuance of the schedule this year kind of that return game from the home in home but it's going to be a great litmus test you know early on Kansas State they get UT Martin on they go two2 Lane so watch out there like let's make sure we're focused on that one before Arizona comes to Manhattan then in week three that's a great game because it should be a really good litmus test for both teams both teams are going to be tested right now my numbers give uh Kansas State about a 74% chance to win it but regard the Winner's going to feel really good about themselves the loser okay we know we need to work on we know how we're going to get better and you haven't caught that l in the conference standings just yet as it's a non-conference game so that lines up really nicely of course if Arizona was a conference game maybe Kansas State wouldn't have the easiest Big 12 Conference schedule but as it is they do and so that to me you're the best power in a team you have the easiest conference schedule that's the recipe for being projected number one in the conference standing so you know if you go down the schedule Kansas state by my numbers right now favored in every single game a road trip to West Virginia in week eight is the lowest win expectancy 57% and then pharmageddon at the end of the year going two ases 63% chance to win at Iowa State in week 14 those are the only two games on the schedule right now conference or non-conference in which Kansas state has less than a 70% win expectancy based on my numbers at the moment so again every single week right now my numbers say Kansas state will be favored of course you're most likely not going to win every single game that you play but to be the favor in every single game has to make Kansas State fat feel good I would think about their prospects this year yeah I know You' got Casa 17th in the power ratings I think Oklahoma State 21st and the power ratings then you got Arizona 26 and on down the list Iowa State West Virginia around 35 36 and the power ratings and so when I was looking at that I mean K State only plays one team in the top 25 in your power ratings and that is Oklahoma State around Midway through the year and that happens to be a home game but agree with the model with what it says about West Virginia and Iowa State because he spoke about returning production and those teams have a lot back off of successful Seasons last year particularly Iowa state which uh you know has a ton of returning production they were a young team last year as well as you know Kelly I guess I'm curious about Utah's schedule strength because I when I look on paper at their schedule it looks to me like it it's pretty easy and they dodg some games as well how do they Stack Up comparatively to Kansas State strength the schedule are they right there one a one B yeah so Utah's number two and the easyest Big 12 schedule um and let me dive into the numbers really quickly here because what I can do I can actually tell you what the difference is between those two uh with regard to the uh projected conference wins uh or excuse me the the the what the conference wins projection would be if if the same team faced every single schedule so if you have the same denominator how does that stack up so I have 7.4 uh projected conference wins for the number 12 team in the country if they were to play Kansas State's conference schedule 7. three if they were to play Utah so it's very very similar I mean Arizona UCF also right there Kansas there's not much differentiation between some of these conference schedules at the end of the day I have to assign an ordinal rank of 1 to 16 and so sometimes that get skewed a little bit but it's very very close between Kansas State and Utah with regard to which team has the easiest conference schedule so close in fact that you know in the V2 projections it might even flip uh if we're being honest that's how close it is as the team's power ratings change very very um with with small margins Utah is also an interesting situation playing a big 12 team in a non-conference game they get Baylor early on in the year at home again a return game from a home in home so uh those are just interesting to keep an eye on Baylor certainly not at the same level from a power rating standpoint as Arizona so a a stiffer test for Kansas State than it will be for Utah but still it's a good litmus test I I it I don't like generally when Conference teams play each other in non-conference games I understand why it's happening in these situations in particular um but since they are being played it is going to be a good test for these teams to kind of see all right where are we early in the year before we get into conference play and make some tweaks that we need to to have success in the conference portion of the Season well we spoke last season Kelly a couple different times I think you had mentioned and correct me I'm wrong if I I frame this up incorrectly in any way but I think the Big 12 was perhaps the conference you were most looking forward to watching last year because it on paper according to your model was arguably the deepest league in terms of the quality of depth in the league I guess how how do you handicap you just rattled off some of the teams in the Big 12 how do you handicap the new look big 12 with Oklahoma and Texas gone how does this Stack Up comparatively in terms of depth to maybe some of the other power leagues yeah it's a really good question and so if we just quickly roll through kind of you know who are going to be the contenders in the Big 12 how deep does it go you know Kansas State and Utah as I'm counting here on my fingers as we go are the two teams projected to be the conference favorites to make it to Arlington but then you've got Arizona Oklahoma State Kansas all within a game of second place a game with within the second place of the projections on my big 12 projected Conference standings then you've got TCU Texas Tech UCF Iowa State and West Virginia all within two games of that second place so that's 10 teams right there I mean 10 out of 16 are projected to be within two games in the conference standings of second place then you have a bit of a drop off after West Virginia so you know 10 teams that you could arguably lay out a case to make it to Arlington I think that's pretty good if I go look at the AC c 1 two 3 four five six seven eight maybe teams that are in that race the Big 10 honestly I'd be surprised in the Big 10 if the two teams in Indianapolis are not some combination of Oregon Ohio State Penn State Michigan like it would be pretty surprising USC and Iowa both kind of have an outside chance so let's be gracious here and give them six that's certainly not anywhere near the Big 12 and then if we go to the SEC three four five six seven maybe eight uh teams there so yeah right there with the quick math the Big 12 certainly certainly has the most contenders I would say teams that have the potential to make a run to the conference Championship game of course only two can make it and if you're asking me to you know who are the who are the two you'd say I would say either Kansas State or Utah like I would be surprised if the Big 12 championship game did not include at least one of those two teams but as I've said in the past like it's more likely than not that somebody from outside that top two is going to make a jump and H and have a good season uh but I think at least one of those spots will be taken by Kansas State Utah and then you know you've got eight teams potentially that might fill that other spot as well so the Big 12 certainly this year even with its new composition even with half the league being new members within the last at this point 12 13 months um it's crazy how much things can change while at the same time remaining the exact same just we don't know what the big 12 is going to look like every single week you should have tossup games and the bounce of the ball one way or the other is going to shape how this season plays out and that makes it really fun and exciting for also probably pretty anxious for a lot of fan bases too but as someone who who's a neutral Big 12 fan I don't have a necessarily a big 12 team in in the fight uh it should be a lot of fun to watch from a national perspective as a golfer for years I've been hearing pxg say nobody makes golf clubs like they do period know what they're right I went in for a fitting and saw for my SW I went in and swung the P pxg Black Ops driver total Game Changer no longer have to sacrifice distance for forgiveness no matter how good the tools getting f can take your game to a whole new level and they'll even give you a dozen golf balls free just for doing it the world class team of phg experts will analyze every aspect of your swing with every club and give you feedback 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docomo project as we sit here in June Kelly but as you rattled off Kate strength the schedule Utah strength the schedule I think hypothetically about Kansas States chances the playoff if they don't win the Big 12 right if they don't win the Big 12 championship and get that automatic buy and get the automatic bur into the college football playoffs so let's just say hypothetically K State goes 11 and one in the regular season and let's say they play Utah who's maybe a top 15 team and the Big 12 Championship that game they they drop and they finish 11 and two is the Big 12 a strong enough league in your eyes to get two teams into the college football playoff and with kstage strength of schedule harm it too much in like a scenario like that at 11 and two I I know that's really hard because the season hasn't even started but I'm just curious for your thoughts yep so I would say and that'd be a fun hypothetical to play out with my most deserving rankings uh over the summer here to it would depend of course on what other convers races look like but Cole here's what I would say until the committee proves to us that they are going to look deeper than the number uh the number in the Lost column I don't think there is a world especially in the 12 team era I don't think there's a world in which a power Conference team with 11 wins is left out I really don't I mean I think if you get 11 wins even if you don't win the the the the AQ obviously from a power five or power four conference I think you're in I I I don't think because who are you getting compared to you're getting compared to nine and three teams from the or the Big 10 right I don't think the committee would look at 11 and two big 12 and say you know even if my own most deserving suggested it from a scheduled difficulty standpoint it which it may or may not I'm not sure it would depend I don't think the committee would look at that and say you know what this nine and three Old Miss team yeah that that's the team that should get in over 11 and two Kansas State I really don't think so um is that right is that wrong I can't say because I don't know what my most deserving would suggest I I believe we should be in a world in which the committee um takes into account schedule difficulty and adjusts what how difficult is it to achieve a certain record against the schedule and compare that to each other so hey 11 and two against Kansas State schedule versus I'm again I'm making this up nine and three against Old Miss schedule or whatever it is which one was more difficult to acheve aieve like math could help tell us that and I'm not sure that the committee um to this point in the 10 years of existence of the playoff I don't believe the committee has shown us that they're willing to do that level of analysis and so until they show us that if I'm a Kansas State fan and we get to 11 wins I think you know what whatever happens in Arlington I would feel good about our chances to make the playoff given the committee's behavior in the past sounds like you would because I was going to ask you about this when the college football selection committee is making going through their process we've seen on the basketball right like they've started to incorporate some of the more advanced analytics like Ken Palm they look at that and as part of the net formula they they encapsulate that they look at some of the efficiency metrics strength of schedule Etc sounds like you would probably and it makes complete sense as a analytics guy at Advance stats guy would like to see some of that maybe baked into the college football playoff structure that that maybe isn't there currently I certainly would and again I talked earlier about how there's no model that's perfect every model has outliers every model misses things I would use an aggregate like an aggregated power rating of of teams so you know Bill Connelly Brian foro I i' certainly advocate for myself to be in there right like that would be very cool but you know regardless of of which ones are included I think having you can list them all out or you can make it the aggregated one whatever it is having power ratings be a part of the conversation not from a not from a who should be selected standpoint because if you're the number one power rated team in the country but you've lost four games because of flukes or whatever it is you played poorly whatever like I'm not advocating that you should necessarily make the playoff just because you're the number one power rated team that that's actually not at all what I would suggest but what I would suggest is using power ratings to serve as the engine if you will for a most deserving or strength of record type metric which then can be applied to every team and then using that I mean I guess I don't want to say that it's like the de facto this is what we're going with but almost like yeah this is hey is your strength of record that ESPN put out what's your k for most deserving that goes out there your your resume SP plus that bill Colin puts out like Brian has his you know wins up uh against Elite or above average or whatever like everybody has their own kind of resume metric those are the things that I think we should be using to determine the the the teams that participate in the playoff because those are the things that have have objectively evaluated every single schedule and determined okay winning eight games against this is actually more difficult than winning 10 against that or whatever it is kind of taking the subjectivity out of it because over the course of 12 games um we have or 13 with conference championships we have a big enough sample size for everybody that everybody's had their chance to impress especially with a 12 team playoff now like there's a path for everybody to make it um let's determine who is the most deserving the most worthy based on some objective metrics as opposed to you know like what we saw last year and I don't want to rehash it with Florida State um of hey you know they did it on the field but we don't think well no no thinking here like what do the numbers say what does the data support that's that's that's what we know so let's go with what we know not what we think we know and I think we'd be better off for it yeah I certainly think it should be part of the equation for sure when they're making these decisions I have you diving all over the place Kelly but I guess circling back to Kansas State just to to break them down a little bit more in depth what are some areas of strength maybe an area of weakness when you look at the offense defense Etc I know the model last year loved Kansas State's offense I think add it as the sixth rated power or the sixth rated offense in all of college football what stands out about Kansas State's profile this year yeah certainly the offense again of the two units is projecting to be better as you touched on last year um in 2023 actually had Kansas State more highly power rated than I did in 2022 the year that Kansas State actually won the Big 12 Championship um and people will say well Kelly how could how could they have been higher power in in 23 than they were in 22 when they won in 22 and they didn't in 23 you know there's some luck that goes into this too maybe and not to say Kansas State didn't deserve to win in 2022 certainly they did they proved that being a good TCU team in Arlington as well um but you know maybe some of the bounces of the ball that went their way in 22 they didn't go their way in 2023 and so even though they had a slightly better power rated team from from my number standpoint didn't get that luck factor that you need to succeed at the highest levels a lot of times and so they felt short of Arlington last year even though they had maybe a slightly marginally better team the offense like you said number six last year year the defense was number 32 for me uh last year so this year the offense right now according to the V1 numbers is projecting as number 19 the defense is number 26 but more important than just you know what ordinal rank are our offense and our defense this year it it's really it's matchup based right and so if we go down the list of every single game that's going to be played this year against FBS opponents you know it's not until the final game of the year against Iowa state that my numbers don't suggest that Kansas State should have a pretty you know notice able advantage on the offensive side of the ball and this is denoted with shadings of of green or red on the the graphics that are online and if it's white that's really kind of like a uh neither team really has the advantage here it's pretty close matchup it's green green green green Green of varying shades for Kansas State all the way until that final game against Iowa State on the offensive side that's because that Iowa State Defense comes in at number 20 nationally so it should be a pretty good matchup there if you flip it over to the other side there are some games in which Kansas State's going to have the advantage or the projected advantage the defensive side but there's a few more games where it's white or maybe even a little bit of red tint in there meaning that the Kansas State Defense might be uh the inferior unit as a compared to the opposing offense never anything drastic I mean again I said kanada States number 26 with a k for rating of 84 out of 100 so kind of the 84th percentile there you know against Arizona in week two that offense right now is number 14 Oklahoma State uh excuse me in week three Oklahoma State in week five that offense is number 16 and then you got a two- game stretch in the middle of the year at West Virginia at home against Kansas those are both top 25 projected offenses so there's really maybe four games in which the Kansas State uh defense might find themselves at a slight disadvantage going into that game um but on the offensive side you make there's really only one game that Kansas state does not have the projected Advantage so again that's why when when you look at it holistically favored in every game on the offensive side should have the advantage just about every week on the defensive side maybe there's a couple more toss but still going to be favored more times than not going against the schedule they they're going against with the number 17 team like everything's really falling into place for Kansas state from a projection standpoint of course we know you got to go out there and win the Gams and it's it's always easier said than done but based on what Kansas State's been able to achieve in recent years you would certainly back them to have another successful year here in 2024 you're talking about the the kind of fluke or or luck factor of ball not bouncing their way last year Kelly reminisces in my mind the what rankings you had last year which uh you know I think Kansas State fans saw that graphic you you tweeted out several times last uh last year during the season which had Kansas State as I believe the number one team in the country in the what if rankings which uh probably had some Cas State fans wanting to dous themselves in some B holiday bottled in Von bbon when they see that and think about the what if may could could you expand on just maybe briefly what that entailed and and what that meant I kind of kind of forgot about this yes you're absolutely right right so uh I do this uh parallel universe if you will basically you know what if every single college football game that was decided by one possession what if it had the other outcome the opposite outcome so Kansas State last year lost a handful of games by eight points or fewer that one possession threshold so in my what if world I flipped that result instead of losing by five you actually won by three or whatever that is right and so as I flipped every single result of of of one possession games that gives you a new projected standings of course if your team wins by 14 points you still win in the Whata if world but all these games that are decided either positively or negatively by one possession flip them and then I can Al I can then apply my most my most deserving formula to it and as I did that Kansas State at 11- one at the end of the regular season came out as my number one most deserving team that that 11 in one that Kansas state would have had in the world of what if where every single one possession cof ball game is split Kansas state would have had the most impressive record of any team in college football like that 11 And1 was stronger than any other record that anybody had in this world and so yeah by the end of the year I totally forgot Kansas State fans at first I got thought it was a joke and then they were like no seriously stop showing us this um and I was like I'm sorry like I'm committed to doing it every once a week every week uh and so that's what I did it was on Wednesdays what if Wednesday uh but yes Kansas State last year it's a really good point as we talk about how maybe they had a slightly better power rating in 23 than in 22 um they did not have that close game luck in 2023 that is for sure and it's not all luck there is some you know there is some skill when it comes down to it to winning close games like that that's a trait coaches are some coaches are better that than others just ask Nebraska fans uh how that goes for them um but it is at the end of the day also a lot of luck in those games and what we see is that year-over-year you will regress to the meet so last year Kansas State you know didn't have the best record in one possession games you could probably guess that this year it would be unlikely for Kansas State to lose that many one possession games again without at least winning you know a somewhat comparable amount of of those types of games too yeah I think the game that obviously stands out in everybody's memor is the Texas game where I went to overtime and they were six yards away first and goal to win that game which would have been huge and potentially would have lifted Kansas State into the Big 12 Championship I I have to ask you Kelly when you know another kind of projection type model here because this is specific to Kansas State but you look at a team like K State that has Avery Johnson at quarterback obviously a prolific Dynamic recruit that came in he's going be a true sophomore but Avery's only started one game and that was last year at the position started one game at quarterback but he has the 10th best Heisman odds According to some sites in all of the country how do you project a team with a guy like Avery at such a critical position at quarterback who has such high expectations on his shoulders but there's maybe a lack of proven production to go off of because will Howard accounted for most of the stats on the offensive side of the football l year quarterback of course is the one position that is the most critical the most important to a football team and when we have uncertainty surrounding that position it diminishes your confidence and A team's rating now Kansas States I'm not saying I'm not confident in their in their power rating but there is more uncertainty around Kansas State than there is some other teams and you get this with other things too you know coaching changes uh bringing totally new staff so much turnover through the rock or through the transfer portal like Kansas state is just one of a handful of teams that has this type uncertainty um but yeah it is difficult and you are going on projection you are trying to say okay here is how he performed when he was in here is what he was ranked in the recruiting process remember we also know that Kansas State staff here recently has done a really good job of developing talent that they've recruited so no matter what his ranking was is he actually going to be is he going to perform higher than that ranking as many Kansas State players have done so it's a balancing act there is some there is some art that goes along with this science I try to minimize the arc portion as much as possible however what I learned is that it's impossible to run a projection projection system especially in the summer in the preseason without some art now once we get going in the year and the preseason weight gets phased out that art gets phased out with it and you've got the hard data that will support you know and inform what the model says of any team moving forward but right now this time of year yeah you're using historical data for whether it's the player in question the position in question uh players of a similar style at that position whatever it is you're using the data you have available to make an informed estimate as to what you can expect from that player that position that unit whatever it is and there's a there's a band of outcomes right like you're trying to probably find that middle ground but there is a world in which he plays much better than the model suggests and maybe instead of being number 17 this is actually you know the number 10 1112 team in the country maybe he plays a lot worse than we're projecting right now and this is actually you know a team more around number 25 in the country so you're you're you're you're doing what you can to fill in the gaps and the data that you have and Avery Johnson certainly is one test case that presents some some gaps that need to be filled I feel good about what we saw when he was playing I know a lot of other people do too that's why he's number 10 in the Heisman odds but also keep in mind like this is by a lot of metrics a lot of power Raiders but you Utah is in this conversation too but but for a lot of folks Kansas State's the favorite in the Big 12 the Big 12 was one of the powerful conferences therefore when you're playing quarterback at a favorite in a power conference your Heisman odds are going to be inflated that's not a slight at anybody that's just the fact this is a this is largely a Quarterback Award and it goes to people that either are incredibly Dynamic which you could argue okay he checks that box and or is going to be on a team that wins a lot of games okay yeah probably maybe checks that box as well so um I'm not surprised that he is where he is in the preseason Eisman odds but I also um I don't read too far into that at this stage just given what we know about how that award uh is earned yeah you're an Ohio State guy right Kelly I am so yeah if we need to talk if we want to talk will Howard here I'm certainly all ear I'm kidding I know your fans he's gone we don't want to talk about it but uh yes um iio state is my team again I I don't allow that to influence what the power rating say and everything but uh yes I I'm excited to have will Howard I certainly think he represents an upgrade for Ohio State at the most important position in football and so I feel for Kansas State and and for really I I feel for for teams that lose their quarterbacks to whatever the situation is um but in this instance I'm excited for what he brings to Ohio State and potentially running that offense there in Columbus which uh should be very high powerered well to be candid with you I think it was best for both parties Kelly I think it was kind of a mutual understanding that Avery Johnson was going to be the guy this year and uh that's not a knock on will Howard at all obviously commanded the number six offense in your power ratings last year in all college football so um I think it was a great great setup for both teams as Avery takes the Reign to Kansas State and will Howard is surrounded by a ton of talent and Columbus uh get you out of here just a couple questions here you been more than generous with your time as always I I am curious Kelly and you might have done this before in the past but have you ever gone back like over the last 20 30 years of college football and ranked via like your power ratings retroactively to like who some of the best teams are in the history of the sport I I do do that every summer and I you're I'll be get pulled up as I try to filibuster a little bit I had I missed it I'm sorry I missed that I was just curious like I think about like 1998 K State and some of those early Bill Snider teams in the 1.0 era and I was curious I'll have to play around with that and go check that out no you're all good it's actually um I I haven't posted the historical ratings or or rankings of teams online just yet people have asked me about that I certainly want to get to a position where I'm able to do that but right now it all just lives on my back end uh let me see and like plug in really quickly the Kansas state so you're you're asking you know who's the best Kansas State team by my numbers is that where we're going that that works and then I I was also curious like I don't know if it was Bill Connelly that did it at one point but I was curious like not only the best Kansas State team but how that best Kansas State team might stack up to some of the best teams in college football over the last 20 30 Years or or comparatively and that maybe that's a project uh you know that I'd love to love to see but and maybe you've already done it but yeah I'm curious like you know some of the best teams in college football over the last 30 plus years via the power ratings yep so let me just highlight quickly looks like I've got you know in in the in the best 1,000 college football FBS or their highest highest level of college football played in any given year going back to the beginning of college football in 1869 I have um eight Kansas State teams that c crack the top 1,000 uh that's 20 2 1999 1998 2000 so a lot of Bill snd teams right there at the turn of the century 2012 97 2023 uh and 1995 those are the teams that crack that if I then though filter for just you know the last 30 years or so you have to give me a second to do this um because the the the highest power rated teams here 2002 and 1999 are literally back to back um number 284 and number 285 in my historical data set going all the way back to the very beginning of college football um but if I'm filtering you know let's let's just go back to that time of 2002 like because that's who I have is the best Kansas State team or maybe 99 because I know a lot of people think it's the 99 team um as well let me go back to 1999 filter by that filter by the overall um it looks like we have scroll up here the number uh there we are right there it is um well I'm really struggling here I I I put you on this spot and you are a wizard with this stuff I'm struggling to filter so it looks like in the last you know what is that 30 year or 25 years is or so out of it was 284 overall you are top 175 is for those two teams in the last 30 plus years again it's a power raing it's it's an estimate and it's also it's it's less about let me say this to it's less about what is your rating year-over-year comparisons and the power rating system is really designed to ordinar rank teams in any given year so in 2002 in 1999 Kansas State finished the year you know number four in my power ratings but number four in 2002 is not necessarily equal to number four in 2024 for example so while it's fun to sometimes talk about and make these comparisons that's not necessarily what the system is designed to do so I wouldn't say that Kansas State in 2002 is the 175th best team in college football in the last 25 26 years or whatever it was it's more about trying to ordinally rank within a year but being in that conversation can provide then kind of the the basis for a debate about you know Kansas State in O2 versus you know Auburn in 2017 or Oklahoma in 2002 or Virginia Tech in 1999 to some of these other teams that are around them USC in 2007 there just other teams that are around those teams in in the power rating no it's fascinating stuff I mean it's also very interesting just to hear that about the O2 team which I think went to the holiday poll and played Arizona State but had so much talent and went through some quarterback issues early in the season before El Roberson took the Reigns and I think that's a very underrated kst team 1998 is the team that still crushes Kansas State fans obviously so I shouldn't talk about that because that will uh bring back terrible memories that and by all means I don't think there was a team anywhere close to being better in college football than Kansas state that year so uh anyways Kelly hey you were more than generous with your time as always appreciate the heck out of you we'll probably get you on again at some point during the season to talk about what you are seeing as uh things go through but appreciate the preview on the college football season and all that you do for college football and the sport and giving us something to talk about here we try to get ahead to football season and get to the fall so go check out k for ratings.com again that's k for ratings.com if you are a college football fan which I believe most of you are who are listening to this you will enjoy the heck out of it the data is so easily consumable uh easy to understand you don't have to be a math Wizard or statistician to be able to consume it I'm not that smart with this stuff and I'm able to easily consume it Kelly does a great job team charts for each team breaking down every game chance to win offense defense special teams breakdowns Etc and also give Kelly a follow at k for ratings on Twitter as well so Kelly appreciate you man as always thanks Cole always appreciate you thanks for having me on and uh best of luck to Kansas State here this year appreciate it Kelly and appreciate all of you for listening to another episode of three Mall