How B.C. United’s collapse could reshape the election

James let me start with you how would you describe what's happened here uh three to six months ago I would have said that the NDP were probably a shoe in to be reelected now I would say it's about an even split over what the outcome will be I mean this is dramatic it's it's not uncommon certainly on the free enterprise Side Of The Ledger and BC politics for there to be shifts we've had sreds conservatives BC reform BC liberal BC United now back to the conservative party of British Columbia I think you know the center right Coalition broadly speaking the free enterprise Coalition is pretty agnostic when it comes to label but when they unite under one tent they're a power powerful political force and they win most of the elections in British Columbia and chuchi same question to you just in terms of putting this in perspective especially for people outside of BC what would you say Well it definitely represents a pretty historic reset in terms of the fact that this is a requium for for what was the BC liberals now BC United a party that was at one point in UND feable indefatigable Juggernaut and BC politics that reigned Supreme for the better part of two decades uh and it is no more what has reformed in its place almost Terminator 2 style right it's it's the liquid molten uh metal that that just keeps reforming and coming back is a party that is now going to pose the most significant challenge to the bcnp since 2017 since they they took power back uh after a very very long term in opposition and what's significant this time is that while the BC liberals slbc United were a center right Coalition this is very much a right center Coalition and so we see the party has moved uh further to the right this this this new thing whatever it's going to be uh but it's going to leave the NDP fighting for every vote particularly in Metro Vancouver where this thing will be decided it is very much now a rural urban battle h a battle divided along uh age lines and age demographics and a battle very very much concentrated in the suburbs outside of the city of Vancouver So shuchi the plan here of course on the part of BC United and a lot of people who are support right of Center parties is that their supporters will go to the conservatives and defeat the NDP sounds like you don't think it's it's as straightforward as that well to start with we knew even going in months before this happened because the conversations between BC United and the BC conservatives have been going on for months that about half of BC United supporters and this is this was an an Ever shrinking base day by day but among those who were left and saying yes they'll they'll stick with BC United about half said look if there's no other choice we'll move over to the BC conservatives no problem so the big question along the margins now and this is a game of inches is what happens to that other half do they shrug their shoulders and also migrate over to the to the BC conservatives because for them the prospect of another term under the bcnp is is not palatable to them are there those that simply stay home because they feel orphaned are th are there those that also uh maybe actually CAU cast their lot in with the NDP because uh their perception of the party under uh John rustad the BC conservatives is a party that's too extreme for their tastes we are now going to see a reintroduction of the culture wars into this campaign and we are going to see um really where does that last remaining 5% of the BC United vote end up going and that may end up being the deciding factor in in who wins this James I would guess the partisan part of you or your former Federal conservative MP is happy to see a United right opposition to the NDP um but more broadly are you concerned about this increased polarization overnight basically in BC politics of of very left of center party and an even further right of Center party well I mean that's frankly been the most of the tradition to the sweep of British Columbus history right is that you have a broad center right Coalition and a broad Center left or relatively Center left Coalition of of the new Democrats and then you fight over the middle 10 20% of the ground some of that has gotten blurred with populist politics and the left and right economics inflation and a lot of the cultural issues that shachi talks about a lot of traditional new democrat voters are not particularly pleased with high price of gas and and sort of open drug use in the city of Vancouver and elsewhere and that kind of crosses over that left right divide but yeah look I think it's healthy for a democracy to have a clear choice and a clear alternative to shi's point though that you know when you whenever you have a merger like this or a combination like this you hope when you're on the on the combination side that one plus one doesn't just equal two it equals two and a half or even three there will be some supporters traditionally of BC liberals who may not come aboard but you hope that there are a lot of people who may have checked out of politics feeling that the center right has become hopeless that may not be reanimated to reenter the race and and reenter the their their voting habits and that's where the opportunity is presented to John rustad and the conservatives to put forward a meaningful platform with credible spokespeople and potential cabinet ministers such that British clemans can think that they have that their vote really matters again that there is a real competition and competition is a good thing in a democracy shachi is it possible that personalities and and and politics don't matter here that it's just about a name I mean the conservatives had less than 2% of the support in the last provincial election but that brand seems golden right now it really does seem golden and it has been a moment to watch the federal conservatives uh cut a swath through British Columbia and the Battlegrounds but this is also about issues surrounding the level of dissatisfaction the British Colombians are feeling towards the bcnp when you look at the issues that are most important to BC voters uh access to health care cost of living housing affordability these are the things that British Colombians are are pretty unhappy about but the big question then becomes do they feel so strongly that they are going to cross the street ideologically over to the BC conservatives uh and and can the BC conservatives sort of make the case for change these are the things that are going to Define this campaign tough time for incumbent governments we're seeing that over and over again in shachi curl James Moore thank you very much thanks Ian thank you