Monday Night Football | Sept 9, 2024 #live

Show Open - First Father/Daughter Sports Betting Show [Music] good morning happy Monday everybody another great day in the Sports World we will get to as many sports as we can here on Sports by the book please make sure and subscribe to this YouTube channel that you are on right now we are going to have 10 great shows for you weekly one every morning and then three evening shows Sports by the book football frenzies that you will get three days a week Monday Thursday and and Friday but looking to our show right now for the next hour I'm Alex white to my left Kenny white former oddsmaker and current professional sports better and also my dad now we covered High School football here together now to our knowledge I think this is the first ever fatherdaughter sports betting show yes Alex good morning and uh I want to say special thanks to Michael Gone Chris Andrews Vinnie malulo Jimmy vicero and and an I won't mention her last name an she you know was instrumental in putting this together um I kind of pitched it to Chris and an almost a year ago and building this you guys have done a great job getting where you're at I'm glad this was kind of like I had a couple things on my bucket list one was doing my own show I pitched it to CBS for five years and it went nowhere the other was a father daughter uh sports betting show and I had pitched that to CBS and that kind of went nowhere but it did go here and I think it's I think we're going to be a huge success just the way we do things and we're betting games we want to help people out to become better betters and that's why we're here and you know I just want to say I want to start because it all started here for me this is my dad and your grandfather's college football guide 1974 this was his third one I had the other couple 7273 and then seven I collated this this book this book over 50 years ago I collated this I did this one probably because I did them all I had to go through every page and collate them and put them in these binders I did that and then 76 I typed his entire guide up from start to finish because I took a typing class in junior high and I could type over 100 words a minute and I typed his entire guide in May and then at the end of the season he predicted Notre Dame would win the national championship and they did so at 14 I was hooked that's what I want to do I want to predict the future in sports betting and I've been in it my entire life I'm glad you decided I never pushed any of you kids to sports betting because of the roller coaster ride but you have uh decided to go down this Avenue and you've done a great job I'm so proud of you where you've gone and how much you've done and I won't be easy on you like Jeff was because he was really easy on you when you said some things and I cringed and Jeff was so nice to you I'm not going to do that cuz uh we need to uh you know I want you to be able to say the things the right way and how you do things and you've been doing great though you're you're amazing the the BET bash when you did your interviews and on on your panel I was so so impressed by what you did I'm very proud of what you've done so I think what this show is going to be a lot about betting and what we've bet what we're going to bet what we look ahead to bet and and that so again educating people but I also wanted to be like personalities and people to get to know us so I only got out one this week Thursday night to put in contest picks and watch the Kansas City Baltimore game and what a m what a great finish and it was a great finish for me and all I could think of was a couple things one I know someone bet 200,000 here at this at the south point on the dog and they needed that touchdown so bad I didn't want it I was under 47 and a half had one of the few 47 and a halfs in the world and was fortunate enough to win that bet but how was your weekend where did you spend it cuz we really don't discuss that a lot of times when you call me and I call you it's all about sports betting and what adjustments we made what numbers what games are we on Weekend Review and you don't use what I have you do all of your own work which is great because I've done the same thing with my dad and I do use a lot of his stuff you do use a lot of my stuff so it's it's a mixture but how was your weekend and what did you do well first and foremost that is a vision of mine for this show moving forward too is kind of helping people where I'm at right now and how I got here using the knowledge that you have and that grandpa has so we can kind of help people to make their own power ratings and then talk through that just like I would if I called you um and then other people will get to watch and learn a lot throughout that yeah and I think the the biggest part is you know there's a lot of time put into the ratings but it's very important to adjust and adjust early to what what I see is in the Box Score a lot of other people see what they've seen watching the games I I watch two games this weekend that was it uh well three I shouldn't say I did watch last night's game and it was so much fun because you know it's I said it's a roller coaster ride so my bread and butter is college football and totals and that's what I bet and but a lot of my clients that I have I gave them and I G early in the week I gave them three really strong plays I thought last week and they went one and two and then the one best total I had I gave that out it lost I went one and three I felt horrible for them and then I you know I tell people I do handicap the NFL I do bet it but I bet it at a lot smaller rate so I bet two and a half 3% on a college play of my bankroll I bet 1% on NFL bets yesterday was great uh all the contest plays were amazing uh all of all of my bets straight bets were winners and if if I go win next week NFL I'll go up but how about the Survivor contest I'm glad that we did not the biggest one the biggest one in the world the Circa it's the it's the biggest Survivor contest and roll $4.2 million to the winner what do you think about the Bengals the Carnage that they left behind well it's funny cuz Ryan McCormack and Frank niiko and I were talking about those two big games and which one we thought would be upset which one had the better odds to be upset between the Bengals and the bills right and Ryan first said I think it's the Patriots I and I jumped in I said I'm with you I think they have a good defense I think they can hang in that so Survivor & Other Vegas Football Contest Strategy we kind of use the strategy though every going to be on that game let's stay off that game in case that happens and it worked to our advantage it really did and that was our strategy that was a one of the highest percentage win games on my chart was Cincinnati but we all knew that when you're in a contest like that you've got to handicap the other players as well any type of contest you really have to handicap of who they are going to bet because if you know they're going to bet the opposite side of you you don't want to make your play because you know that that's a free winner for you possibly if you do and you're and you're out and you need a and you need to catch up then you know you've got a chance to win a full game but anyway so did you go anywhere any sports books you were here Saturday and Sunday did you watch any games I watched as many games as I possibly could how many games did you watch well so we Jeff and I and then Sean who works behind the glass does a great job we usually hang out here throughout the whole first um portion of the game so College kickoff at 9:00 we were here till about 12:30 or 1 on Saturday then I went home and flipped through some channels um catching up watching the later games and then Sunday we did the exact same thing so we watched all the 10: a.m. games here we've got one game on every TV it's a great setup absolutely love it and um yeah and then I watched the Lions game with my sister Savannah and um her fiance Trevor oh that's awesome yeah I I watched the entire game last night sitting there working on on the college football numbers but man it was just Weekend Football Watching and Working everything went well in the NFL yesterday which is such a surprise because very rarely does it go that well in one day especially first week of the season I've had really good NFL days but they usually come in week seven eight nine 10 after I've adjusted ratings and get a good feel for the teams um and we usually do well early but not that well I mean it was just that great of a weekend I'm really excited we're going to wait until tomorrow and really dive into NFL and what we saw yesterday waiting for a big game tonight which I know some of you are watching hoping for a couple of our plays for the game tonight 49ers versus the New York Jets we'll get to that in about 15 minutes but tomorrow when we break down the NFL I'm curious on how you adjusted with say the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints the Saints looked fantastic they actually scored the most touchdowns out of anybody yesterday with five um so where you adjust how much of that is the Panthers how much of that is the Saints being really good this year but we'll we can get to that tomorrow that's kind of just a tease yeah no no doubt we I'll tomorrow you're right I'll be working on those numbers after tonight's game and and putting those and adjusting those it's a lot easier to get the NFL done because there's only 16 box scores to go over I have over 150 box scores to go over in college football so uh my ratings are all updated and right after the show I'm going to run my numbers and have a have a line on every single college game so that I can start to compare and then start to bet and um earlier in the next couple weeks I'll probably be quicker to get that done but I did spend a lot of time this weekend while you were here having fun watching games wait I I I was working too I took Kenny Talks About The Highs and Lows Of Sports Betting your advice I was um updating my college as they finished all Saturday evening wow and then Jeff parl he's my witness yesterday morning here at 10:00 a.m. I was finishing my college numbers watching the beginning of NFL all right so you good good job that's I I have a hard time watching and sweating games and doing the work at the same time so and I bet so many games on Saturday and the first week it was such a roller coaster ride Thursday week one college football I got destroyed and I was like I got to go back to work on these numbers I mean I was three and 17 destroyed who does that when you put in that much work but you know I it just certain things happen Saturday uh was like the greatest College Saturday I've ever had I was in the 24 and four range on Saturday so it go from one extreme to the other I wish it was six and four every every single day that's what I'd like it to be but it just doesn't work out that way but see you have to manage your money I was able able to be conservative enough on Thursday where I still got a bankroll going into Saturday to win and then and then go but I had so many bets on Saturday over 120 bets I had on Saturday with all the FCF games and I didn't want to know where it was going so because I've got NHL that I'm working on and I'm working on women's college basketball I'm going to do that first and then I'll do the men's college basketball after I finish the women's but so my days are not watching any games and it's trusting the box score and the numbers that I see well and to your point I did not bet heavy yesterday on NFL at all knowing it was week one and a lot could happen so I was really just taking it all in I didn't feel like I had to sweat out any games so that made it a lot easier to get through my college work cuz Saturday evening was a little tough well I think you you were listening to me for two weeks saying the first two weeks of the NFL are preseason yes and that's what Chris Collins Earth was saying last night on the Detroit game that these guys are gassed in the fourth quarter because they're not used to this type of effort when they're when they're practicing in August practice and games are two different things and you you really it's a rigorous Sport and all these guys and every NFL player this morning they're having a tough time get out of bed they are having a tough time getting up because they are beaten up and bruising and it was the first game of the year it getss a little better during the season but it's still Mondays are always the tough day they don't do anything today other than they go to the go to the complex their their facility and they watch film and get treatment probably and get treatment it's treatment and film day today they're not on the field whatsoever other than guys that need to be on the field that didn't play those guys are on the field but the guys that all played so they're beat up and they're they're tired next week's going to be the same way it is kind of like preseason so again I'm only playing 1% of my bank rolling NFL plays next week maybe if I if I do as well as I do week two as I did week one I'll definitely Step It Up in in week three and I try to separate my bankroll too by sport so that it does they don't intermingle and it's it's been taking a long time to get to that discipline to do that but now it's part of my process we always say have a process trust the process and if you do you'll be very successful and you'll get kicked out of a lot of books and not be able to bet there and he says every sport we will have some baseball coming to you as well at the end of the show probably about 9:45 just 30 minutes from now but let's talk about some of those college games you wrote out a list for us we're going to start with top college football performers of week two um we're starting with Tennessee who did look very good against a good NC State team yeah Tennessee was uh amazing uh they are just right now a juggernaut they're putting up points their defense has been tremendous and I I felt their effort against North Carolina state was the best of any team during the weekend uh and that doesn't mean they're that great and I think sometimes I do this to think sometimes these teams could have a let down or a look ahead after that type Top College Football Performers Week 2 of performance this is an A+ performance and it's something I look at and I always say my power ratings I use are 75% of the equation the other 25% is a feel and tangible information like Revenge look ahads let Downs coaching matchups things like that so this could be a bad spot for Tennessee after a great effort like that because they do play a tough game next weekend uh they have Oklahoma and they've got an easy game they play the worst team in the country uh this week in Kent State we'll see um will they prepare for Kent State because I have heard that Oklahoma did not prepare for Houston all week long they prepared for uh Tennessee and they prepared for Texas and that's what they did in practice all week long Oklahoma and maybe two lane they have two lane up this weekend they didn't practice for two lane no they did not but they will now after their poor performance against Houston they probably will prepare a little bit for to Lane but they're going to continue to prepare since they got by they're going to prepare for Texas and they're going to prepare for Tennessee they're going to be ready so the players see what the coaches are doing they know that the Tennessee game and the Oklahoma game are more important than Houston and and uh this game coming up this week first too Lane yeah and then they get a little bit overconfident there but I do want to just bring up because you have always told me this you don't like to bet on bad teams so even looking at Kent State having that idea that it might be a look ahead for them with Oklahoma up next that's not one that jumps out to you that you want to put your money even if it's a 48 points here with the worst team of all FBS yeah the you know this game was probably a better first half bet with Tennessee because they're so explosive offensively that they get a big lead in this game and then maybe second half if Kent State scores in the first half I would I'll probably end up looking at the numbers and seeing I I kind of put a star NE to next to some games that I want to bet second half and make a note why I'd want to bet that game in the second half like last week the one I circled was Iowa Iowa State two good quarterbacks that total was so low I thought if they got off to a slow start I would bet it over ing game and I did when I saw what the score was and you know it was it was a winner uh I'm going to put a star next to this game and I yeah I don't bet bad teams don't lay points with bad teams because you're asking a bad team not to just win but then to cover a spread so don't ever bet lay points with bad teams even if they're playing Another Bad team doesn't matter these teams all celebrate when they win by one who celebrated Oregon couldn't believe they kicked the field goal they win oh my gosh they they celebrated like it was the Super Super Bowl and they were an 18 and Half Point favorite they should have been saying we really underachieved in this football game so a couple others we'll go real quick here because we have taken up some time of your day talking about us South let's go to Ohio State they were outstanding they did took care of business against Western Michigan South Carolina uh destroyed Kentucky which was a big shock so they were the my third top highest performing team Arkansas versus Oklahoma state which we had Oklahoma State luckily laid the better number 7 seven and a half and I still don't know why Oklahoma State went for two um unless they had to oh wa it was the second time yeah it was the second overtime they had to go for two so that that worked out very well first over time neither team scored Texas State uh my friend Ken Murphy that was his play of the week and over and they really came out strong against Texas San Antonio so that was a number five I'll round out the top 10 Clemson Southern cigan Utah State West Virginia they played an FCS team but they were very strong this week finally Texas against Michigan and BYU against SMU there's two that jump out to me that I want to get your opinion on Kentucky sitting here lose outright to South Carolina as at least a touchdown favorite they did not make your other list about underperformers for the week is that and Kentucky does have Georgia coming up here so that was a really um pretty apparent look ahead spot now looking back for the wild cats so you made you put that more on South Carolina looking good or yes okay I I put it more yeah I gave more credit to South Carolina looking that good on the road and again I they did you know two three hours on each team before the season ever started so I don't want to be to knee-jerk reaction but uh yeah they uh um were close to probably somewhere in the middle in performing and maybe a little less than than average because they did lose but they played South Carolina and South Carolina is still not a bad football team they they still have solid Talent so on the teams that did not perform well Ken state who's going to play Tennessee they lost straight up to St Francis of Pennsylvania James Madison played poorly Kennesaw State Florida Atlantic and UAB all played horrible last week and those are teams that you're probably going to want to fade because they have underachieved vers bad competition when you're playing a bad team and you play poorly uh you're going to be on my low uh rated so Kent State James Madison Kenesaw state Florida Atlantic and UAB are the bottom five in college football performances last week okay great information there and then if you saw the graphic There is five more um to Top College Football Under Achievers Week 2 finish out those underperformers for week two we're going to go ahead and move to our top five now I'm sorry our top 10 college football teams going into week three I will start it off um with my top 10 here I've got Georgia Ohio State still sitting at two um I'm gonna wait for uh there we go okay so I have Ohio State and Texas now tied at two I've got all Miss they finally jumped up moved to four Alabama five that's what I had last week as well Oregon moves down to Six Penn State seven that was a little um concerning when their defense is their strength and they really struggled the last game um Tennessee number eight Alex's Top 10 College Football Teams - Power Rankings Miami Florida nine and then LSU sneaks into number 10 curious if that is a little high and uh USC's probably gonna have to start bumping up there if they keep playing the way that they are yeah have you moved USC up I have the 16th best team in the country now uh Georgia number one definitely they they did not come to play this weekend they could have won 100 and nothing if they wanted to 60 some point favorite uh in the high 50s and um I think Kirby Smart took it easy on his opponent uh so that's why you can't adjust by final scores because if you did just adjust by final scores and you took 10% off what you thought they underachieved it probably be about a point and a half I'm not knocking Georgia a point and a half I love the effort they had against Clemson they were due for maybe a let down after that game Ohio State Ryan day has another great football team they are loaded with Talent uh Lane kein team Mississippi I Kenny's Top 10 NCAA Football Power Rankings have number number three Texas and sarkeesian uh they took care of business in the big house uh and uh they looked really impressive and I said their defense was great and it is their offense continues uh to impress me as well uh this is a team that has not fared well ATS wise on the road so I bet against them that was one of my bets last weekend that I lost Michigan plus the points took seven and a half uh at home but uh they're not ready they will be as I still have been my top 10 and people say how can you do that they looked horrible that was Texas they lost to Texas number five Oregon they haven't looked well either Dylan gra Gabriel had a really good game statistically uh but the Boise State is good and jenty the running back is the top running back in college football Alabama tied for fifth with Oregon I have Penn State at number seven they underachieved vers Bowling Green uh number eight Tennessee number nine tied for ninth Miami Florida and Michigan I'm not I'm not giving up on them they have just too much talent their defensive end is so so solid they are very solid on the defensive end the the question mark is the quarterback position and they they keep switching off and trying to figure out who is going to be their main starter but you think that'll just take time I think it will take time a lot of people say when you have two quarterbacks you don't have a quarterback they're both really good at quarterbacks they're above average quarterbacks and and maybe the pressure they're both trying so hard to win the starting job sometimes that's why people say that that when you have two quarterbacks you don't have a quarterback because both guys are battling it out you do want to have a a qb1 and that they'll they'll I'm sure they'll get to it but those guys are both pretty equally matched in Talent so we'll see who ends up you know winning the job in Michigan but they're still going to be a very good team unless they lose a couple more games and then they give up on Shon Moore that they know this is a different ship they're sailing on than the one they did with with Jim Harbaugh I can't remember if you had Notre Dame in your top 10 last week but I know they were very close Notre Dame upset by Northern Illinois on Saturday I'm curious if you think that this could be a let down spot here for Northern Illinois I I actually think their competition isn't too tough oh yeah they are they're hosting Buffalo well it's a conference game um a Mid-American game and but there definitely is going to be a let down you know there was a a party at Northern Illinois all and they're still partying right now um they're going to try to get out of bed and go to class today but it's going to be tough because that's a major major win and I Notre Dame's Loss - What It Means For Their Future did knock Notre Dame for that because you know they say good teams win great teams cover and they didn't win so that that's you know and Michigan didn't win either but Michigan lost to Texas Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois right and now I mean it it's going to be a little tougher for them to get into that 12 team playoff of course there's still a shot but they really needed to have a pretty clean resume going in especially because they don't have a conference Championship to play in to have a a bid in there but um looking ahead to week three any other games that jump out to that could be look ahead spots kind of circle on our schedule to watch some teams um That Could That Could Have look ahead or even let down I yeah we look down we we talked about that um I did that right before the show Oklahoma as I mentioned I had heard has What Teams are Going To Look Ahead and/or Let Down is preparing for that's right Texas and Tennessee and they did not look good against Houston UNLV destroyed Houston and I said to you that's not a bad loss because UNLV is good uh Barry odm's got this team playing extremely well they're a very good football team they are going to give Boise State a run for their money in in the conference so I didn't think it was that bad of a loss for Houston they knew who they were playing they knew what the line was they knew they were going to supposed to get blown out they came to play Oklahoma knew the coaching staff was looking past Houston so they decided to look past Houston and that's why the game was that way but Oklahoma still young quarterback they still have some work to do they play two lane this week I still think this is a bad spot for them because they have Tennessee next uh Tennessee has Kent State this week they play Oklahoma that may be a look ahead and a lot of these times you know these big underdogs can get blown out I like to look at the second half in these games put a star by it check the score at halftime an hour and a half from when their kickoff is see where it's at and maybe it's a spot if the dog has scored and stayed in the game I'll look to bet the dog in the second half UCLA plays Indiana this week but UCLA next week that could be a look a little look ahead Balor plays Air Force this week and then they play Deion Sanders and and the Colorado Buffalo's the next week Georgia Tech lost against Syracuse uh I think they lost I I won the game I took three and a half with Syracuse Syracuse won by then I started to think about it did they did they did Georgia Tech pull the upset but no or did they win no they did not they play VMI this week and Louisville next week those were kind of my teams that I saw that are playing a much better team next week than they're playing this week here's a couple that I found and I do want your opinion on this Mississippi State 9 and 1 Half Point favorite versus Toledo they have Florida up next yes that's that's a good one I like that that was on my list uh down the list a little bit number 23 and teams that play because I have Florida down now I'm looking at the rating of the opponent and but situational that does stick out a lot stronger than maybe a couple games that I have on my list Minnesota 15-point favorite versus Nevada they have Iowa up next and I have that at number 14 on my list CU Iowa's power rating is uh is still strong that's a great defense their defense was smothering in the first half against Iowa State but Iowa State and rock OBC they figured out a way just two more so BYU did make your top performer list they did upset SMU that was a Thurs that was a Friday game that we did have um the Mustangs in that one BYU is an eight and a half Point favorite at Wyoming who has been very disappointing and next up they have Kansas State I have BYU uh the fifth one Kansas State such a high rating and Wyoming's a let down Wyoming is not played well BYU comes off at the win over SMU which was not a conference game by the way um the next one would be um if they play this year I didn't even look to see if they play but I knew it was non-conference and then SMU their starting quarterback um is definitely not 100% he did not play well they had to go to the the the youngster Jennings who's an elect athlete but he's not a great passer and he did well between the 20s but he struggles once he gets inside the 20 in the red zone and that's why SMU lost that football game so I I knocked that team more than any other team this weekend excuse me SMU was the biggest team I dropped so I have one more and this one I think I know the answer to this but I'm going to ask it anyways Utah they are a 20-point favorite vers Utah Utah State they have Oklahoma State up next we already talked about that Oklahoma State game they were very fortunate to get the win and the cover of the opening number I know they moved up to about a 10-point favorite for the Cowboys did not cover that one that game by eight but Utah if it's an instate rivalry then that you can't really use that as a look ahead right well it's Utah does not look at Utah State as a rivalry okay they're just way better so Utah state is this is their Super Bowl so yeah I think it's a good spot okay very good well we're going to take a quick break we'll be right back when we get back we're going to talk about the ners and Jets game some bets we like in this one and maybe even a prop don't go anywhere this has been Sports by the [Music] book South Point offers all the types of 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believe he he's one of your customers so thank you everybody who did come over from Kenny white sports um or bet the Gambit which is Kenny White's new YouTube channel and new show of his own and it's been a lot of fun like I said it was kind of I a big bucket list of things to do but those were two of the things doing my own show and I've been so happy I this Shout Out to the Chat Room is week four three weeks and uh great you know support of people coming out subscribing and viewing and watching the shows and um hopefully it's good information and I'll continue to do because I'm loving I'm having a great time I want to uh continue so and and here at the South Point I'm loving this already week one of arvar we've done some shows together throughout the summer and I filled in but now it's permanent Monday Tuesday Wednesday sorry Chris I'm here for good so you have to you have to put up with me um and quickly um please subscribe here to South Point Studio and then you can be in our chat it takes about 5 minutes but then we'll get a live chat going and I will be much better about checking and um answering any questions you have for either one of us but before we get to NFL you do have some trends for us to keep us updated on college football yeah I've been I worked a lot on these last night so la last year 2023 favorites uh were 320 and 326 49% this is FBS versus FBS games and then this year so far favorites have not done well uh 32 and 50 2 wow and that's any favorite a half point or better uh 32 and 52 uh so far the totals you know college football scoring has come down it was 56 a game then it was down to 54 a game and last year 52 points per game uh the home teams uh on average won Kenny White's College Football Trends 28.7 to 23.9 that's about a five-point difference and that's my average home field advantage in in college is about three and a half and it's not everybody doesn't get the same rating they're all different because it's all about the uh environment and how big the crowds are and how loud they are uh the bigger the crowds the louder the crowds they get a higher higher home field advantage 2023 games were really split across the board in overs and unders 50% but so far in 20124 uh we have had 53 unders and 34 overs so it a big big UND swing again in college football scoring though has been the same uh 52.4 points a game so far home teams are winning by an average of 10 points a game because these are not conference games and the home teams are much bigger favorites in the first couple weeks of the Season uh Pace wise uh last year 27 seconds in between plays 5.7 yards this year 27.7 seconds in between play pace is just a little slower about a half a second slower so far yards per play is down to 5.5 uh which is you know defenses continue to get better and the Run percentage college football still runs more than they pass uh the NFL is 57% pass college is 46% pass and that's uh this year little bit more passing though 47% passing in the college ranks let's do some NFL let's do some NFL just to recap really quick 53 and 34 to the under this year in college football a lot of games gone under so far okay good stuff as always really good game coming up tonight New York Jets go to San Francisco now this game opened the ners six-point favorite a lot of news about iuk and what they were doing there also Trent Williams who is very important to this team and probably has an impact on the Betty line it moved down people loved the the points here with the Jets now it's sitting pretty strongly here at the South Point San fr Isco is a four-point favorite total in this one moved down a little bit but it's s sitting pretty strong at 43 and a half yeah this is going to be a fun game to watch two of the best defenses I have them ranked the two best defenses number one and number two San Francisco won the MNF - Jets vs 49ers Jets to Robert Salah for the Jets uh three years has done a very nice job of bringing in Talent putting in his system on the defensive side because before he took the job he was the defensive coordinator for the 49ers ERS for four years so he knows Kyle Shanahan and he knows Kyle Shanahan's offense I really believe that the Jets want to they want to mirror what the 49ers have done because Kyle shanan has done a great job for San Francisco seven years there now and amazing over the last five years there's been a lot of Heartache two Super Bowl losses and two NFC Conference Championship losses in four in five years he's lost four huge games he's won a lot of games besides that though and his team's gotten a long ways new defensive coordinator they weren't happy last year with Steve wils after the season the the defense did drop off just a little bit last year and they wanted it they wanted to get better so Brandon Staley got fired by the by the Chargers he is now a CDC for the 49ers with Nick Sorenson who was on the staff and was elevated this defense is tremendous and they're going to show it again tonight the Jets defense is tremendous solo was a defensive coordinator that's why the total has come down a little bit now let's talk about the two quarterbacks we don't have a lot on Aaron Rogers did miss the whole year last year you have some stats though from his final year in Green Bay and then you also have Brock P's um stats from last year yeah Aaron Rogers you know great career Hall of Famer uh has out with the Achilles injury now it's tough to come back at 40 years old from any injury but his last year for the Packers 50 uh 65% 65% completions that was down a little bit from his career numbers 6.8 yards a pass way down from his career numbers 26 touchdowns 12 ints a 2 to1 ratio is not Aaron roders because you look back the two previous Seasons to that 85 touchdowns just nine interceptions for Aaron roggers and the Packers were 13 and three both of those Seasons so he's far from that guy I think he's a little better maybe than the guy from the last season but it's going to take him a while to get back into game shape and it doesn't I don't think it bodess well going up against the best defense and football in your first game back so I expect a little bit of struggles from Rogers tonight Brock perie when he was thrown into the mix Mr uh irrelevant last player picked made the team impressed Shanahan enough to stick around then he got the job and started five games uh 67% completions 8.1 yards a pass 13 touchdown four ints much better numbers than Rogers had and then last year I expected the first year I thought py had nothing to lose last year said he has a starting job to lose now now the pressure's on but he got better and way better 69% completions 9.6 yards a pass 31 TDS 11 ints um he's just got so many weapons and he's been making the right decisions and Shanahan puts him in to a position to succeed um very high-scoring team but would shock most people because they actually take the longest they have um what 30 seconds per play with the ners and 31 31 seconds per play which is La they're the slowest team team and that's two years running two years in a row they're number 32 the slowest team in between plays of any team in the NFL and then on the flip side you in your on your show earlier you were talking about the Jets wanting to run the ball a little bit more we haven't seen it in the past years even when we had Zach Wilson and other quarterbacks there under center now with Aaron Rogers of course Bree Hall one of the best running backs in the league you're expecting more running from this Jets team yeah they brought in Nathaniel Hackett um because he's very familiar with Aaron Rogers and Nathaniel Hackett his dad was Paul Hackett and Paul hacket was an extremely conservative coach uh he coached at USC coached in the NFL uh he was a power run run first guy uh he would run first and second down is is how conservative he was so um I I think that's the way they want to go they have not been that way they've been passing the ball 60% of the time the last two years and they're they've been playing fast they were the sixth fastest team two years ago and the eighth fastest last year I don't I just don't think that's really what they want to do I think you're going to see more of a power Run game this year to set up the pass for Rogers and and rely on the defense so that's why I think this game's played tonight I I think this is uh it wouldn't surprise me if both teams score early and look good offensively and then those defenses take over I don't I can't imagine that the Jets want to get into a shootout with the San Francisco 49ers one of the best teams in the league um first game back for Aaron Rogers I found a prop bet that is offered here at the south point that I really like a lot and with everything we just talked about I think you will as well total combined touchdown scored in the game 4 and a half is the number the over minus 135 if you like the under plus 115 yeah what that's about the average for for a game with a total this low I'm glad you said that because I have Jeff fogle's median numbers from this first week so the first 15 games here um even looking at some of the top teams so the median was two touchdowns um in 11 attempts or 11 drives um and that's so that's the medium two per team te per team so if we anticipate two from each side there's going to be some field goals in this they are the top two defenses they're going to slow them down at least a little bit and it's early the the defenses have to be ahead of the offenses the last three years the under is 32 and 19 now I didn't go back and look what it was this we had some high-scoring games um this first weekend I I'm going to guess it was probably about 5050 it's it was definitely not a huge under Trend that's true and we started off Thursday Friday both technically went over over the closing number they both went over the closing number so all right might be a little tough you you a little hesitant four and four and a half four and a half and you're getting plus Money Getting plus I like that with these two defenses and we we have no idea where Aaron Rogers is at and we know Robert Salah knows the 49er offense inside now can he stop it yeah he's going to stop it he's going to slow it down he's probably going to be more Bend but don't break you'll see yardage between the 20s but he's going to really make it tough on them when they do get in the Red Zone it's gonna be a great game I'm really excited about it we have we're using this game in a contest I haven't put any actual money that is money though I mean you pay money to enter these contests but have you bet on this game aside from using it as a contest entry I did not um because I'm I'm I made San Francisco a lot higher I made them nine and again I tell what what I tell people is my power ratings made at nine but I don't like to bet a lot of favorites so on my charts I take 20 % off the favorite in every single game so that I make a little lower number and I don't bet as many favorites and hopefully get more dog bets because of that so if I shave off 20% of the nine that's 1.8 points 7.2 is my real number for the 49ers rounded off at seven uh I still have some value there uh and you're right we did use you use San Francisco and your Survivor some rooting for you there because of that I may bet the 49ers tonight but I I didn't bet the game again I like college football a lot better and again there's another thing when I do my work and I rate players out to get a team rating I'm rating these guys at a mid-season form so I feel like my total I made 48 that's midseason form three four five six games under your belt they're not in midseason form the defenses are ahead of the offenses just by evidence of the 32 and 16 under the last three years I have to adjust so I went back and I looked at all my totals for the last three years my average total was 41 or 47 the final score was 41 I had a six-point difference from my total to what the actual results were so I have to go with that again that's 25% of the science of making numbers and making bets to be your process so mine total is 42 in this game now after I took six points off seven and 42 is my number for tonight okay very good and that's what I'm sticking with that's my story looking at some more props that we do have here at the South Point just so if you want to get a few bets there's a lot of ways to bet this game right you can bet quarters halves um we also have total prop um 36 and a half or if you think it's going to be higher scoring 50 and a half it's a really um big number if you are going under 56 and a half total touchdown scored by the ners total touchdown scored by the Jets um and a few other great ones here from Chris Andrew sports book director are you stepping in to talk about numbers in college football no you guys are goinging great I'm just giving you the opening numers thank you we've already had like 10 changes but anyway that was those already open thank you very much 10 changes that's why you got to get down here and get the the best number let's go the the early number well that'll do it for football but we still have baseball to talk about things are heating up we're getting closer to the playoffs there is no WNBA today we will have some WBA for you tomorrow though so don't go anywhere we appreciate you watching here at sports by the book [Music] South Point offers all the types of entertainment you'd expect at a first class Las Vegas Resort did you know our 400 seat showroom is one of Las Vegas's top destinations for live entertainment enjoy live performances by classic Vegas entertainers fanss and Today's Hottest comedians plus a rock and dance floor you can also enjoy live entertainment at the Grand View Lounge where you'll feel all the Vibes of Old Las Vegas enjoy the music and if you love to laugh don't miss the dirty at 12:30 our very own free comedy show every Friday night at 12:30 a.m. in the Grand 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carpets here and then cleaning out all the seats and then he crunched all his numbers and then he put them on the board to take BS he was kind enough to walk all the way over here to hand us a sheet Sor that has the putting college football lines on so we want to make sure that everyone knows college football is up here at the South Point and next week I suggested if we know this is going to be the time we'll talk baseball first and then when we get the sheet at 9:30 we're going to talk college football and we maybe we'll do baseball the NFL game and then 9:30 on will be college football and uh talk about the opening numbers but looking at you know we got some great Thursday Friday games Arizona State at Texas State Arizona State the favorite but Texas state is is really good football team UNLV at Kansas so just just want to make sure everybody knows the college numbers are up here at the South Point get down here and bet him very good thank you for that I have Texas State as the favorite small favorite but I am I'm very excited to go through my numbers and see if I have any differences here 7 and a half for Kansas at home it's just about right I have him a 6 and a half Point favorite not enough for me to take the rebels but they have been playing very very well he's got his baseball sheet we are moving on to baseball last week we talked about Paul skin Paul skin day we're just going to touch on this for a second because the Pirates are a huge favorite in this one I don't know if there's any value to actually bet it one way or the other they are hosting the Miami Marlins with Paulk going again today yeah it took it took three people to carry carry my sheet in in the in the door today so I could use it yeah SK has been amazing I knew he was that good from college baseball last year and how dominating he was winning a college World Series with LSU I was really shocked how long it took the Pirates to bring him up because I saw he was dominating from day one in triaa baseball um er at 2.13 I thought they were going to shut him down uh earlier in this year I I really thought they're going to shut him down a couple starts ago but his uh median home start six Innings five hits two runs one walk seven strikeouts uh they've been an over team with him on the mount when he pitches the Pirates hit they didn't last game but they usually hit they do show up for him on the mount um we're going to go down to we're going to jump to the Kansas City Royals and the Yankees the Royals have been playing much better as of late Brady BR Brady singer going today um against Carlos rodon who you think you're pretty high on rodon right now and he has done very good for the Smiths team this guy's got great stuff he's a do dominating Ley and Brady singer has been really good uh has pitched well lately he's he's the Ace of the the Royal staff but rhon is last four home starts 24 Innings 12 hits just 12 hits four earn runs 29 strikeouts ra 1.5 I expect the same out of him today I think he's going to be one of the top pitchers on the card one of the top efforts uh today from any pitcher will be Carlos rodon I think the Yankees my numbers are right there it just my heart and intuition tells me the Yankees are probably a good bet laying a half a run in the first five innings because we know we're going to get our full complimentary app bats I wouldn't lay a run and a half for the full game knowing that they may not bat in the ninth inning the American League right now Baltimore with the first wild card spot Royals sitting there in the second and the twins still have the third right now Tigers three and a half games back and the Mariners three and a half games back we'll see if they can uh make a run to steal that third spot but the twins are probably happy to get the Angels yes they they've had a they've had a tough schedule and a little tough run but this sets up nice for them today cuz the Angels worst lineup in baseball or second worst to the white socks first right-handed pitching so uh they hit lefties well they see Reed Demmer tonight I made that a194 and do have an edge with the twins but don't like to lay that high of a price and again tread lightly and baseball I'm betting like 1% on on baseball myself I think the national league Wild Card race is a little more more intriguing um San Diego right now with that top spot of course because the Dodgers have that division right now Diamondbacks um in the second spot and then the Mets and the Braves right now dead even for the third wild card spot Mets have been playing very good I believe 15 of 115 of their last 20 and then on the flip side the Braves have continued to struggle and now maybe on the outside looking in during the playoffs th this is uh going to be a race that's why I love baseball and September because there's so much to play for right now the best teams never go to the World Series it seems like it's the teams that are playing playoff baseball right now in September that end up doing very well in the playoffs so the Mets are hot they're on fire uh they they haven't played this well all year and they have a good team they're getting healthy the Braves you're right uh they've had their struggles they've been up and down very inconsistent however they still have a great staff and a great lineup so even without aunia uh they are they are dangerous and these two are going to battle right down to the wire still no pitcher for Toronto um just yet and then it looks like the Mets were switching I I really thought it was Paul Blackburn coming off of um his rehab he he's missed a few well he was he was hit by a line drive on his wrist against the Padres so he was he' been out 15 days that's who I expected to I thought it was going to be Paul Blackburn so can't really give out a bet there in that one with without knowing either yeah you want to know Blackburn even off 15 days I always take about 10% of a pitcher's rating if they're off 10 or days 10 10 or more days because pitching is you know mechanics are something that you do over and over and over and over again and you would think after all the years these guys wouldn't matter if they took two weeks off of a start but it does it definitely matters it's it's definitely a 10% drop off so he is a really good pitcher Allstar with the a is three of his five starts with the Mets six Innings and one run uh so it will make a big difference whether he's in tonight or not uh but the Mets lineup where they've been really swinging it I think they could hit Chris Basset really playing for something now as of late well that was um a lot of fun we got through a lot of information hopefully you learned something new we'll be back tomorrow what we did with college football as in top performers underperformers are top 10 we will do tomorrow with the NFL after tonight's game's result what I learned new is you're Saturday and Sunday you're sitting around here watching football it's a team effort I mean it it's it's work I'm seeing I'm working I'm working yes you know it's it's good to watch I try to watch as much as I can because you learn something and I try to watch each team if I can um not as much in football college basketball is where I watch more games because that's a sport that another sport that I love to bet the more teams there are in any League the easier it is to beat when there's only 32 teams like the NFL the numbers are so sharp and you have to learn to respect those numbers because there's a lot of money being bet into those and a lot of opinions so but you need to watch you need to watch those college football teams and the more you learn the better your ratings get well I love the wmba having only 12 teams is very hard and there are Sharps out there that get the best numbers very very quickly let's go to Ryan McCormick because he has a show coming up here at 12 with Frank niiko it is a different YouTube channel you got to just switch over to punchlines FN but Ryan how are you today what are we looking forward to during your show well we will get more of Alex white on today's show Alex uh will be joining us on Mondays and Wednesdays going forward so today is a Monday so we will have Alex white we will be talking about the NFL slate of things that happened in the games um and our kind of takes on that as well as in college football looking at the big upset uh in South Bend over the weekend uh among other things uh and then we will be talking about some stuff in the WNBA and Major League Baseball being that we're getting down into the postseason uh postseason race so got to tune in at noon on punchlines FN on Punchlines Preview YouTube as Alex had said funny the funniest sports betting show in the world yeah that's what we are going for here with h Frank nicera leading the way but I've saw I've seen a lot of good clips that Frank has sent in to use for the show so it will be a very entertaining one um we'll be back tomorrow there's also another Sports by the book coming up tonight though to preview the Jets ners even more in depth with Jeff parl here on this YouTube channel at 3 pm. we appreciate you all please subscribe tomorrow let's get this chat going um even more but we appreciate the people who are in there um Keith Lyle and Tera what so CHR thank you Chris Andrews just walked back in you uh want to jump on here and I I guess I yeah jump in I'm just G to tell you good morning good morning uh I you know Kenny I don't do a third of the teams that you do but I do go through all the boxes and all that other stuff just takes me a Sports By The Book Preview, Chris Andrews Pops In while I'm up late last night I'm up I slipped in a little bit to 605 this morning you know up doing boxes again so it takes us a little time you know I do make my own numbers so we we will have I I try to get them up as early as possible we got to get the sheets we got to get them on the board we got all kind of crap uh but we we will have I I heard you talking earlier yeah so do baseball in the front end and then I'll get the sheet to you and we'll go through all the colleges later I think that'd be a great way to do it but again you're for people who bet this is a place to come because you put your opinion in the line you're not copying and pasting you do your own work and to be a bookmaker I'm 100% behind you that's the way to do it yeah you know you want you want money on the on here take bets yeah y you're here to take bets and um you know I mean some guys they take leads and sometimes they're right sometimes I'm right but we we get the action Kenny you know I mean you've uh you you've seen this for a year or two you know so you know that's just give us some money we'll kind of take it from there that's that's the way I learned to that's the way I learned to be a bookmaker when I first started in the business my loss Jeff Garrett and Bobby Davis yeah they put an opinion in their line and they knew were people would bet it and then they would be in line people would put you always put you in line but they always felt like hey we have an advantage if we're doing the work and we get people to bet on the opposite side of what we like sure and you're laying 11 to 10 so that gives me you know a little bit of an edge but I also get to see you know sharp guys and what they think of the numbers you know and a lot of times what we take on Monday I say this half the time we need those same sides come Saturday morning so you know yeah it's come on in man our good friend Tony seni would always say his dad said the bookmaker has time and 11 to 10 on their side and I always say God looks out for drunks and bookmakers what are you laughing at an hey how was the jackpot contest because I know we have a big game ton I know I'm still waiting I know everybody not everybody just about everybody missed the Bengals Patriots game if somebody had that Patriots game and wound up going chalk the rest of the way boy they probably did pretty good so we'll see we got because we got we have to put 15 it it's a long story but we have to put 15 so we have the total on tonight too so you still have two ways to go yeah oh boy somebody had the Patriots somebody one person I think I mentioned it on your show I think it was a live dog you know because mostly anti- Cincinnati you know and uh they have 12 rookies on that team like I said I know the Brown family they're the tightest owners in the NFL they just oh great we got 12 rookie contracts it's going to get interesting I'm excited about the game tonight and see what happens but you did have record number amount of entries this year right yeah God I forget I think I don't want to say but it's over 35,000 is the jackpot and we had record handle on Thursday wow I mean record handle on Friday but last year we didn't have a game on Friday right record handle Saturday and then Sunday was about the same as last year but you know so you know we're missing one game you know but uh that was great it's tough when the Standalone games Thursday Friday and Monday are such good games so of course you're going to take a lot of handle takes away Sunday Sate you know I heard you guys talking about this is we're still almost in exhibition season and I think you mentioned Kenny yeah I mean you can see that that Rams defense was was gassed they were done maybe if you had Donald back it might have been a different story but they don't you know they got to play that way and how good is Stafford and and Cooper cup I mean they they had no offensive line in front of them they third and fourth stringers in the game and they still kept him clean but he knew we got a quick routes I gotta get rid of it how does a guy like Cooper cup get that wide open because everyone knows he's getting the football he runs a 4840 yeah and nobody can cover him I mean you I don't get it but you know well especially when pukaa was out of the game right exactly they knew it was going right to him yeah but shout out to David Montgomery too because he's single-handedly ran that football down the field yeah yeah that was a tired defense at that def they were tired in the fourth quarter now they got to go extra time I was hoping you couldn't stop them once you know field goal with saved us a whole mess of money what are you going to do I'm sure it would have well thank you for stopping in thank you for the numbers NFL will be out out for next we do overnight yeah yeah we do over let me just you know we we don't the only thing we um have partial limits on is overnights that includes the NFL but once we open and that's why I don't do college like on Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening cuz we open we take full limits 10,000 in a rattle at the at the counter so I listen I got enough trouble running the south point I don't want to run anybody else's business but this is the way we do it we open it and it's good to go the the best quote I heard from an executive was Robert Walker wanted to do a lottery at the Mirage and they were standing in line they were fighting in line and Billy MCB Beth said that can't be good How The Sportsbook Opens The Lines For The Next Games for business if people are fighting in line to get make bets I don't think that's a good thing we'll open up on on Monday you know one of the funniest things it was when Scotty had the lottery some guy pulled a gun to make a bet before I was said if I pull a gun I'm robbing somebody I'm not giving you my money I think that's when Patty was there those were some days yeah P was there those were I was down there a lot myself my dad was there every day and uh college basketball season for I don't know 10 15 years probably yeah and some baseball season for games yeah by the way that and I always tell Alex say hello to your dad for me pleas but that was your dad you know this is 1981 I put up all the Cub totals and he came he says Chris you're the only one puts them up every day no wind blowing in we're six and a half wind blown out we 15 and a half you put them up and I said well thank you Pete we've kind of known ever since then we've always been kind of friend I've lost track of him but we we were certainly friends yeah yeah that's good he's always spoken very highly of you and he's you know had his has his opinions yeah yeah three generations of whites man it's fantastic really terrific it is there's another good story we'll have to get to eventually about the Cubs totals yeah when you first learned about that but we'll save it okay thank you for more than welcome yeah that's okay we don't pay overtime candy just so you know when you submit the invoice there's no over I have to call Frank San hold on there you go this is sports by B thank you everybody for joining us today we will be back again tomorrow morning same time 9:00 a.m. set your alarm and then remember there's another show coming up at noon punchlines and then 3 p.m. with Jeff parl we appreciate you can't wait to see you again tomorrow this has been Sports by the book [Applause] [Music]