Yes, Watch Prices Are Falling: Rolex, Patek Philippe, Plus a Few Watches That Don't Lose!

[Music] thank you hello I'm Tim maso welcome to watch us tonight this is watchbox Studios this evening watch prices are falling except where they aren't we chat live and I share your viewers wrist Shots tonight on watches tonight remember to check out the redesign homepage of the watchbox.com where you can keep track of watch prices literally by the hour we are posting new watches 24 hours a day because our business is global we have many offices around the world so open another window keep me streaming and check out thewatchbox.com while we give our stragglers a few minutes to file into the audience consider an eye raising episode from the last couple of days have you ever gotten in over your head over bid or overpaid for watch you just had to have imagine your Panic if you noticed too late that your commitment included a few too many zeros well that's exactly what happened last week during an online auction for a Lincoln Blackwood pickup on the popular auction site bring a trailer this Infamous sales debacle from 2002 has at least some ironic appeal now the two decades separates us from the stigma of its loser image today it's worth about thirty three thousand dollars in perfect condition but this bidder probably lost his lunch when he realized he just committed Duesenberg money to a plastic wood-bodied Ford in Lincoln lingerie I agree with the next comment that bid should do it either somebody flat fingered the keyboard or that pickup is crossing the border with a few dealer installed options and by dealer I don't mean Lincoln all right welcome to the Box guys fortunately God loves a fool and the bid was ultimately canceled you can see the succession from five million dollars to four thousand dollars that's probably the greatest instance of Automotive depreciation in all of recorded history so with that as the stage Setter we have so marenke joining in from Budapest we've got Thomas Burnett Edward Ludden we've got diet 2086 from Western Massachusetts we've got a monk says hi friends VC on today we're doing like a virtual risk check let me know what you're wearing I'm wearing my Dan reuter dr-02 time Hill from Virginia we've got Boutique from Poland but tonight in Prague which is very nice our tow Charles from New York City Edward leadden from Sweden we've got John Carlo P we've got Tom Hill we've got the real to fly from Bethpage my old neck of the woods on Long Island and James Fernandez from Phoenix guys keep piling in SJ Singh welcome from New Zealand and thank you for getting up early with us we've got two friends today we got Sid and we've got Sean on the switcher we're expanding our team we are a growing company and a growing media department so welcome Sid okay viewer wrist shots number one I asked you answered let's see what you got Amy H Sports the evening's ultimate watch with her watch box bought Brigade tourbillon Skillet fully skeletonized and engraved with Daniel rot designed tourbillon movement it is as good as good gets I would even say it is great Amy thank you for trusting our company we've got Nishant P of Florida who rolls with his BMW M8 and the mbnf Legacy machine Perpetual in Palladium I like them both Austin L and Edmund K both fans share a double shot with rye and Rolex from Montreal looking good on both counts we've got a Min s from Dallas shares an appetizing view of Fine Food and his spectacular Yacht-Master David D shares his watch box bought brega tradition in yellow gold and thank you so much David for trusting our company guys send your wrist shots to Monday mailbag at the watchbox.com to see your wrist on my list okay jumping into the box caliber yqg saying wow that's an awesome Brigade Brigade right now so underrated and people are like oh but it has nothing to do with Abraham Louis Brigade I'm like yeah well there hasn't been a Patek or a Philippe running Patek Philippe for quite a while we still love them okay what else is going on here Abdul joining in from Germany we've got hail Bop and Dan CT all from South London welcome aboard guys in case you haven't seen yes watch prices are falling it's no secret that speculative Assets in general and watches in particular witnessed a market Peak that coincided roughly with the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine a surge in Energy prices related by the way newly restricted monetary policy by Major central banks and various types of quantitative tightening by these authorities everything after that point has been nuts it's been quite a year watches aside how these risk assets fared I'm glad you asked because I have details here is the U.S NASDAQ Composite year to date from that little origin point about two-thirds of the way through that is our year to date and you can see it's Tech heavy and the most speculative of the major U.S indices the news is mostly bad and it's well into a bear market like inflation this trend is a global one here's the Hong Kong Benchmark Hang Seng uh-huh here's the German Dax here's Francis cac-40 you notice a trend guys downward and in case you're wondering yes Britain's ftsc the ftse is down to but it's had a chaotic year in a narrow range as the UK's finest Minds rised the challenge of 10 inflation at this point I think they have roughly equal competence and Authority on this matter that said one of these figures that you just saw if we could jump back Sid has a proven history of lowering the price of Staples like food the other wants to cut Ronald's taxes I'll leave it to you who you trust more all right now you'll be delighted to know that your dollar can buy more luxury watch as of the third of October 2022 because if you are spending dollars the dollar is strong like bull right now it is one of the craziest currencies of the year that is what you call a safe haven and cash right now is king So what could you buy with your newly potent US dollar well consider the fpjorn chronomet blue which is one of the most challenging watches of the last few years first because of the way scarcity and prices spiked and now because there's a little bit of a pullback so a quick history lesson this model launched in 2009 and it became the single most sought FP Jordan watch by the fall of 2021 one could say it was already the most sought before that but things went really crazy in late 2021 by January of this year the watch was trading in a range between one hundred and ten thousand and one hundred and twenty thousand quite literally this is a watch that retails for thirty seven thousand four hundred dollars which is up quite a bit from the original 2009 retail of under 20 grand but still when you look at a hundred and twenty thousand dollars for a thirty seven thousand dollar watch that is probably unsustainable when that thirty seven thousand dollar watch is still very much in production so I was thrilled to see this kind of energy behind a dress watch that's the good news normally it's the sports watches that get all the love it was pretty cool to see a small-ish 39 millimeter uncomplicated non-water resistant or very minimally water resistant dress watch get this kind of love from the watch collector fraternity but I didn't understand why this tantal and Beauty was such a unique fetish in a world that also includes gorgeous micro rotors from Laurel ferriere and Geneva seal Louis chopards that languished for very little money on Chrono 24. a quick survey of our recent prices reveals a moderating Marketplace for this watch now it's still trading at well over twice retail but the heights of January 2022 will take some time to regain I'm not a Jordan Fanboy but I'm optimistic about these in the long term which I'm going to Define as half a decade to a decade it's not that long and frankly anyone with the money to buy this likely can look back on Decades of time and Marvel how quickly a decade passes so if you got in at 110 don't sell now as with stocks there will always be a bottom and there will always be a recovery so if you own this watch right now don't sell distressed hang on to it enjoy it and if you must sell sell down the line when you can benefit from your patients for now it's just a beautiful watch to enjoy and still one of the most in-demand timepieces in the world okay vacheron Constantine oversees self-winding blue dial a watch that went from an AP Patek like sort of also ran it was very much like a Royal Oak it was very much like a nautilus or an Aquanaut but no one paid that kind of respect in its first few years on the market it went from that also ran status to a heady seventy thousand dollars and then in this in the course of one year this year it went from 70 grand to about half of that so this has been a roller coaster ride you saw the foot seat before well this is just like the British stock index these things have been up and down dramatically really just in the space of seven months no mass-produced reference in this class has been more volatile than this one in 2022 the model was the definition of a bubble and the bubble has burst and it retails for twenty two thousand five hundred dollars so isn't it rock bottom probably not it seems that the last assets to balloon are always the first to burst this watch didn't hit Peak until nearly four years into the fever for integrated bracelet sports watches and there's currently a pretty big Delta between the price of one of these things with a blue black or brown dial and the silver dial which means I think there's a little bit more leveling do in the market as these watches are still very much in production and vacheron made as many as they could sell at closeout prices for the first five or so years it was on the market all of which means there's a pretty good Supply out there and there's a lot of real inventory floating around at pre-owned dealers and on Chrono 24 so I do think prices will sink a little bit more here maybe not tremendously maybe not to the retail price but a little bit more from where they are right now the global economy is far from out of the woods so anything that isn't specifically a hedge probably has a little bit more time to bleed whether it's this watch or many other assets consider the S P 500 probably The Benchmark index in the US and maybe for the world it's about thirty seven hundred dollars right now it could absolutely shed another 10 to 15 percent but almost certainly isn't going to repeat its 23 slide from January to today could it anything's possible I don't think it will if the bottom line for you is the bottom line stay away from this watch for now if you're interested in the experience of owning the watch then buy it and enjoy it no one ever cares about the retained value of a purebred dog or a trip to Europe or a year of eating at a fine restaurant you never get that money back but we're kind of fixated on this idea that watches are going to make us money or cost us nothing to own we never take that attitude to any other facet of like the luxury lifestyle so if you're into luxury watches don't worry too much about the price of this one again long term if you buy now you're not going to lose but if for you long term means six months there are better options and I'm going to show them to you Okay jump into the chat box right here we got Titus a oh by the way because Titus andronicus was that the band that put out the album the monitor that was pretty cool he's saying first generation overseas Reigns Supreme very very neat very neat by the way I know there was another Titus andronicus but Sean Hansen saying maybe we can get these pieces at MSRP at the ads soon we got Huxley Orwell and Rand I noticed a theme there saying hi Tim it's Walter from New Jersey Walter welcome I'm so happy you're watching what else is going on we've got Luke and B saying vashron is a dead end I don't know about that but I'd say of the Holy Trinity it's definitely the sick man of Europe think Ottoman Empire Circa 1914 or what else is going on we have a question from Titus have I heard anything about the new 70th Anniversary 50 Fathoms no but I could probably reach out to Jeff Kingston and find out a little bit more than I'm supposed to know so uh hold your flyer I'm gonna find out for you what else is going on in the Box Abdul are saying watch collecting is an experience so there should be a cost to it Neo saying Tim writes extortion of Alex the watchmaker is absolutely disgusting that's why I stay a million miles away from the politics of YouTube watch Channels I have no interest in that crap frankly I don't even watch most other YouTube watch Channels so I stay clear of that crap and I talk about watches and people who want to talk politics do like the bush League version and they talk about you know YouTube watch politics if I go into politics it's going to be on the advocacy side as a second career after this I'm going to keep it separate from YouTube and certainly separate from watch YouTube what else is going on Kent D is in the Box all right guys let's take a look at the Eternal bridesmaid to the Nautilus no not the overseas it's stable made at Patek Philippe the Aquanaut the Patek Aquanaut 5167a so for a moment in February and early March it looked like the Aquanauts time had come confirmed reports of one hundred thousand dollar transactions for the strap Cloud Model illustrate the definition of an overheated Market when the retail price of the model after all was only twenty three thousand seventy dollars almost four times that was just nuts it was nothing futs as they say now prices in the high 40s and low 50s are reasonable for a steel Aquanaut right now and even bracelet variants now trading range from about fifty thousand to sixty five thousand dollars so we have seen a huge intra 2022 deflation in this model in all its forms and steel whether it's on a bracelet or on a strap frankly I can't imagine paying a hundred grand for an aqua not on a strap but there was a period of about I'd say 60 days when that was a thing so even on a bracelet this watch retails for just over twenty six thousand dollars so the market is anything but a bust if that watch is still pulling down 60 to 65 000 take note both the hydrology stainless steel Market slide and the decline in steel Rolex sports watches started in China during the first quarter I was talking to some of our friends over there and they were telling me back in February and March no one wants the Nautilus no one wants the Aquanaut no one wants gmt's daytonas and Subs so it's interesting to look at China which used to be a market and sort of a world unto itself as now a bit of a canary in the coal mine for the luxury tree watch Market globally it's fascinating because for many years China didn't lead the way Hong Kong and Singapore and Japan LED in the market and led as taste makers and now we're starting to see a world where China does that both on the new watch side and on the pre-owned side where previously Chinese customers had very little interest so I see a sea change here and it's fascinating from a inside the industry perspective another example of a market in flux is the new for 2022 Rolex GMT Master II vtnr this is a first of many a bunch of interesting firsts here they debuted back in March the green bezel it's black and green Lefty GMT retails for eleven thousand fifty dollars which frankly is quite Fair it became a 47 000 used watch literally the moment after the first one hit Chrono 24. so it's been falling ever since this one has come down to earth like a meteor you're right like the meteorite bearing The Blob it wreaks destruction all will be consumed current transaction prices in the high twenty thousand dollar range are common that's still a fine premium over its retail price remember eleven thousand bucks is fair for watch that can sell for almost three times that used but how many dealers right now are in way over their heads with this watch that so many Chrono 24 asks are priced like it's still April of this year also look at how many of those are photos of real inventory this isn't a dealer saying pay me and I'll try to get the watch this is a dealer saying please please bail me out and that's not good news right now you shouldn't pay more than 27 to 29 000 for one of these and that's just the state of the market anyone asking 46 is nuts all right by the way if you are allergic to nuts I've got a couple of watches coming up that are very fairly priced their markets haven't moved up their markets haven't moved down let's take a look at the box right here we have a lot of friends joining in and this chat box is moving like absolute lightning we've got Edward Lettin saying unfortunately it looks like the obsession with I think he's saying the obsession with appreciation is the big enemy of our hobby Kent D is happy to see the Lefty and then right here Abdul is saying no one wants to buy flashy Instagram watches because of getting mugged on the streets increasingly true around the world and then right here we have Mark as saying Tim will you please please do a 10 31 22 Halloween themed episode oh you better believe that's gonna happen actually I don't know if I can I'm going to be in Switzerland I don't think I can do that maybe I'll do some sort of live stream with my phone it'll be like you know found footage think like The Blair Witch product except unlike that particular product It Won't Suck so it'll be like the Tim massowich project and it'll be really neat and a lot of fun we'll go full blown Wiccan in luxury watches that's a paradigm we have an explore Lord okay what else is going on here we got slow course saying they used to be 15 000 then 35 000 what about now if you're talking about the GMT think 27 to 29 okay what else is going on let's jump back to our regularly scheduled program citizen switcher he's doing a great job and I really appreciate that viewers chats number two Eric oh captures a sensational his and hers in Napa including his retirement Rolex Daytona newly bought congratulations Eric and joy you're a retirement May It Be Long healthy and fun Mike P shares an impressive tandem of his Audi S5 and Carl F Bucher Monero flyback chronograph Miguel J and his Omega chronostop soar at the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta I always wondered how these things work like you can't really control where they go how do you recover all these balloons who follows you on the ground I have so many questions but it looks cool we have Marcus G wins the evening I believe with his shot of his tantalum titanium and rose gold Seamaster and some Chic Tim maso themed accessories Rondell a and his Grand Seiko spgv 243 hit the road on his Harley-Davidson Road King very cool guys let's take a look at what watches by the way if you want to send me your wrist shots send it to the email Monday mailbag at the watchbox.com and if you have an Instagram account include that I'll tag you but let's take a look at watches that we shouldn't worry about buying right now these models briefly if ever experienced the bubble-like inflation of the watches we mentioned before and we're starting with a well-known piece from last model year the Zenith chronomaster sport this was the most controversial watch of 2021 and it wasn't debated for its resale value but that's worth mentioning in light of the Zenith performance relative to its obvious inspiration the Rolex Daytona you can see back and forth between those two it's very clear that one be got the other and I have nothing against Zenith for doing this you know the low-lying fruit Rolex has a hell of a wait list and the chronomaster sport is a nice watch but take a look at steel daytonas they had confirmed 52 thousand dollars at their peak in the first quarter that's the current generation steel ceramic watch with a white dial and now they're consistently at twenty seven thousand to thirty two thousand dollars again a little bit underneath thirty thousand dollars in some cases with the black dial and the black bezel combo so the Zenith is actually outperformed the Rolex on the market this year let's consider the Zenith in the same period This is a watch that retails for eleven thousand dollars right now that's up a thousand dollars from last year but still a fair price it peaked at just under ten thousand dollars as a used watch in the first quarter of this year and now they're available widely for about nine thousand dollars so relative to the Rolex Daytona this watch that went from ten to nine is really beating the pants off the Daytona in 2022. the Daytona has shed tens of thousands of dollars worth of value whereas the Zenith is down about nine percent not so bad wouldn't you say that uh nine to ten percent decline is a bit easier to stomach than the Daytona's roller coaster this year I would if you want to read more about the market for the chronomaster sport economics professor and watch blogger Brendan Cunningham has a whole discussion of the chronomaster sport and market prices over at his blog herolynomics highly recommended a good read and not just for this article bookmark it you will enjoy it okay that the Box what's going on Mob is saying still impossible to get Rolex at retail waiting lists are growing shorter and if you want certain models you can take delivery right now do you want a yellow gold data no problem do you want a Cellini no problem do you want something that's a 2022 model your watch or one of the big three steel sports watches you're probably going to wait what else is going on we got Hans Zen saying hi Timmy hi Hans good to see you and then we've got Abdul saying hi to Hans that's what I like about our chat box we've got a great audience the best on YouTube so few trolls here and even our trolls are fairly witty and enjoyable all right what else is going on well what else going on chopard and the Alpine Eagle 41. this is a watch that launched in 2019 and it bowed at the right time for this type of timepiece but show part has mostly held the line on price at thirteen thousand four hundred dollars new The Price is Right for the quality that's offered inside and out its dial is deeply textured beautifully gradiated and achingly gorgeous the closer you get the more impressive it is the movement is cosc and in-house 60 hours automatic winding and the size that 41 millimeters is ideal it's over 100 meters water resistant so this is a great all-around watch it's even more scratch resistant than standard steel it's got everything going for it so the size is ideal and the aftermarket is same because we're going to take a look here at watch charts which is a fun Market aggregator that you should check out and they have a range that includes the highs the lows private sale and aftermarket pre-owned vendor so what you can see right here they didn't get the retail price right retail price right now is 13 400 but it indicates a roughly 10 percent price slide for the model also note the narrow spread between private sale and pre-owned dealer the band looks wide but when you look at the scale it really isn't a quick survey of asks on Chrono 24 backs this assessment asking prices in this range could easily lead to transaction prices within about five hundred dollars of watch charts estimated value and watch charts if you didn't get a good look at that chart is estimating about a ten thousand to ten thousand five hundred dollars private sale to buy one of these used a little bit more to buy it from a dealer so if you're looking for something that's as much fun as the vashron but potentially less volatile with less to lose the stability of the show part even amid declines is quite appealing never inflated the Alpine Eagle isn't likely to crash as a result all right in the Box time Hilson hard to beat the chopard we've got Messi Day saying when they copy Patek Philippe I think it's more of a matter of them copying Patek uh Laurent not Laurent Ferrier but the laureado from Gerard perigo the Audemars piguet Royal Oak the Rolex Oyster courts many many watches but remember it copied them long ago as the current Alpine Eagle is a Revival of the 1980s chopard Saint Moritz which was a contemporary rip-off of all of those better known sports watches so it has some real historical authenticity behind it even if it's no less derivative it is a very nice watch for the money asked we've got Peter K saying let's go love catching a live show with Tim thank you so much Peter I appreciate you catching me live and then we have Abdul arsene I'd like the eagle in 36 non-date version hey the Royal Oak 14790 in tantalum is for you Abdul all right jumping back into the wrist shots provin K explores traffic in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia with his Rolex Explorer fitting Aldo s and his Brigade tradition are in good hands thanks to Dragon Ball Z heroics more of an R wins the photography Stakes with this shot of his green Sub in Nassau I love the color there look at that water my gosh we have quangdi who proves that quartz is legit luxury with his 9f powered Grand Seiko sbgn003 and tamim a joins from Bahrain and looks like he's in maybe a club I can't tell but he asks me to guess which model I guess milgauss best on based on the picture send your wrist shots to Monday mailbag at thewatchbox.com to see your watch on my box okay now we get to the anomalies these watches are surging in a falling Market there actually gaining substantially with a lot of those gains backloaded in the second half of the year making it all the more exceptional alango unzona the steel Odysseus reference 363-179 I don't know what's going on but this watch popular but not crushingly in demand out of the gate has become a watch priced around thirty thousand dollars and they were selling 60 to 70 000 in the spring which told me back then longa had fully Advanced the same status as the likes of AP and Patek and vashron so they joined the Holy Trinity integrated sports watch club with respectable premiums over retail but then things continued to get crazy even as the others started to flag again we look to watch charts with a focus on the high-end transaction prices between eighty thousand dollars and ninety thousand dollars now in October of 2022 are common and a quick look at the asks on Chrono 24 that's real inventory for the most part aligns with this notion of eighty to ninety thousand dollar prices that are transacting in the eighty to ninety thousand dollar range so while Chrono 24 prices often exceed transaction prices by a fair margin even a discount from these asks land solidly in the mid 80s note that the listings appear to have actual watches ready for delivery this is so important because it suggests that the dealers are able to deliver at whatever sale price is agreed so this is a real sales proposition not Pie in the Sky not a number they'd like to get and the watch they hope to find I don't know what's driving this especially since longa as a brand is considerably weaker than the likes of Audemars piguet or Patek Philippe but right now the Odysseus just goes from strength to strength the white golden titanium models too all the more maybe I don't know what's driving this but maybe it's just a good product that's objectively scarce the Odysseus launched in 2019 is scarcer than any steel Nautilus than any steel Aquanaut than any steel Royal Oak and that's working in its favor okay longa makes The Hit List twice with the long running but suddenly red hot zeitvert in white gold it is one of my favorite watches and one of my true Grails from the time I started in the watch industry and it's been around for a while this is not a supernova exploding newly into the market it was made for the first time in 2009 and it's been available continuously since then so I'm not sure why its time is now but it definitely is look back to 2016. these things were selling used for 45 to 48 dollars throughout 2021 they were higher than that but they were pretty consistently 62 to 65 000 used in the spring of 2022 they still sold for 70 to 75 000 but the trend continues upward even in the last three months as of late 2022 as of right now they're selling in the 85 to 90 000 range which puts them within an earshot of the retail price of the watch these things have recouped all of their losses and given how long they've been on the market and how many are in circulation it surprises me to see this because if there's one factor that weighs against high after market pricing it's usually a short production run and scarcity this watch while rare compared to something by Rolex or Omega is fairly common by longest standards and I don't know what is putting pressure upwardly on these I'm glad that it is though this is an example of a meritorious watch that is actually worth the aftermarket price this is a watch you buy for its case back I admit but also the fun jumping time display that makes the 42 millimeter zeitverc one of the most appealing longest from the dial side you don't feel like you have to wear it upside down to get the most out of this watch and that sets it apart from just about every dottigraph and longer one and 1815 and saxonia ever made okay here's a bit of a shock the Audemars piguet code 1159 perpetual calendar this was an incredibly controversial model line when it launched because back in 2019 the automatic and the chronograph were kind of ugly well good news for the Chrono it's flat all year this year between 39 and 41 000 used I haven't seen a lot of upward or downward movement meaning if you like it this is a great time to Pile in but what really struck me is that this code 1159 oops gotta jump back there there we go this code 1159 was the one born beautiful everyone agreed that the adventuring dial and the rose gold case was stunning from the first and it's defied the marketplace in a year that has seen the Royal Oak jumbo 15202 down least 20 percent on the aftermarket the code is just absolutely breathtaking both in terms of its appearance and its performance and I don't know what is driving this it is the perpetual calendar with aventurine dial that is everything Audemars piguet could be in our dreams it's beautifully detailed from the adventuring to the rose gold accents to the Prismatic three-dimensional evacuated case the buttress-like lugs and the photorealistic moon phase transaction prices around ninety thousand dollars or within hailing distance of the watches roughly 95 000 retail price most impressive is that this code calendar search has been concentrated in the last 90 days which defies the trends of equities cryptocurrencies classic cars and nfts during this period AP did a lot right with the code 1159 but the perpetual calendar was the best of them and in a time when ap's steal sports watches are starting to suffer a little bit on the secondary Market perhaps we're waking up to the potential of Audemars piguet dress swatches all right guys viewers chats number four let's see what you got Muhammad Ian is Grand Seiko GMT sbgn011 ride with Porsche in his Macan S SUV we've got Karsten M of Montreal visits New York City with his riocendo cave blue Grand Seiko sbgk15 I love that dial nice shot against the Statue of Liberty by the way we have with that K reporting from the road in mescat Oman in Muscat he's rocking his Grail watch the Brigade 52-77 looking great behind the wheel where it long and prosper I love to see someone who realizes his Grail Stefano B portrays his full bracelet Omega sea Master diver 300 meter 007 Edition looking good if you get that watch you kind of have to get the bracelet and then Chris T and his Zenith powered Rolex Daytona watch the Singapore Grand Prix spoiler alert it was a Red Bull Victory if you haven't seen it I'm not going to tell you which Red Bull and they drive us home with F1 power and speed Chris thank you guys send your wrist shots to Monday mailbag at thewatchbox.com the party continues afterwards on my Instagram that's Tim underscore maso check me out all 60-second watch reviews I've got over 2 000 of them you can binge watch them to your heart's content it's also where I post the newest and best watch box inventory this is where the rare stuff goes up often before it hits our website so guys check me out I want to thank Sid he did a great job Sean and Sid they are getting up to speed on a very difficult process to coordinate these graphics and the monologue and they did an awesome job guys thanks so much make the best job in watch as possible timeout Tim out thanks for logging on