Expanding the Deep Ball | Steve Sarkisian | Quinn Ewers | Texas Longhorns | Football Theory

hey what's up folks lifetime Longhorn Rod babers here joined by of course the coach former High School football coach at Bernard Capel Brownwood ran Belton also was a college football player at abene Christian coach there on multiple STS also was on the staff University of Texas for multiple head coaches it's coach Bob Shipley what's going on Coach how you doing hey I'm doing good just trying to stay cool man ready for that first cold front to roll through Texas well you got you got about a six weeks sir got he got a wild coach for that cold front his but we all wor that's that that's that first real feel of fall when you walk outside in the morning and it's not humid or hot you walk out can you imagine can you imagine playing this Saturday it's gonna be bad up playing Colorado State the next Saturday but this Saturday what what time is that big game at know yeah you're right it if it's if it's somewhere in the Southern United States and it is anytime before prime time it's gonna be hot and even in prime time man it gets a little hot so I'm with you prob prime time I don't that part of the tour days and training camp trying to basically train your body to deal with heat exhaustion that's that's basically what you're acclimating your body to it is no easy task but the long run should have the advantage when it comes to that uh with the first week of the Season uh but football Theory we always of course when game week gets around we be talking about game week specific items but I want to continue talking about more of the broad uh Strokes some of the macro items and I want to get into the deep ball a little bit Texas offensively and get into the deep ball something we don't talk about enough you know because I think sarc has curtailed it as of late uh because it was something that Texas just wasn't really good at converting but there are numbers that suggest that Texas could this year could have a much more efficient and much more effective conversion rate when it comes to some of those deeper passes down the field so we'll get to that but first let's thank our sponsor we want to thank uh the Fantastic Laura Baker for sponsoring the the football theory of the show is brought to you by accomplished Austin real to Laura Baker Laura and the Andy Allen team at K Williams can handle all of your real estate needs in the Austin area Lura is not only a die hardn Longhorn fan but a longtime Austin real estate expert so please give her a shout today if you have any concerns or you have any issues regarding real estate in the Austin area 5127840797 was um to basically they they were using it in a gratuitous manner early on in sarks tenure by throwing a deep ball a little bit too much they would get themselves behind the chains um but Texas was is never really good at throwing and converting to deep passes since sark's been here but there is hope because in the last seven games for Quinn URS his last seven starts I should say uh he went from a completion percentage of 24% on passes 20 uh yards or more in his previous 15 starts but in the last seven starts he had a completion percentage of 43% so when from 24% in the previous 15 starts in the last seven starts he was at 43% yards per attempt doubled went from 7.9 on deep passes to 14.8 uh his off Target percentage uh was 44% that number dropped in the last seven starts to 25% his qbr on deep passes uh was a you go look at overall his qbr was a 23 qbr which is not very good on 20 plus rard passes uh which was 135th in the FBS among uh 146 quarterbacks not very good but that number Rose to a 92 qbr in the last seven starts so it's clear that there was marked improvement coach on the Deep ball the question is was there enough Improvement for sarc now to start deploying the Deep ball more within the offense because there's no question he curtailed it and he seemed those deep passes seemed to drop a little bit the rate of deep passes dropped in the offense when Sark felt like they were putting them behind the chains because most of them I say close to 50% of Texas deep balls actually guys they came on first down like first down play action shots and when you don't convert those Unfortunately they lead to Second and long and then eventually third and long well you and I have talked about this before earlier uh you know one I I think we're better off on the Deep ball whenever it is play action just to hold the safeties a little bit hold the linebacker a little bit so the linebackers don't get under your coverage uh but it is it is obvious through uh you know what you just presented the facts you just presented that something happened that changed and I would like to think it's just Quinn just continuing to develop continuing to uh be wiser continuing to hopefully step up in the pocket you know that's one of the things that you and I have talked about too is wanting to see him be more comfortable stepping up in the pocket because sometimes a deep ball especially if it's a double move it's going to take a little bit longer the double move is the most effective deep ball if you time to throw it yeah and so uh that that's the key he's going to have to learn how to be more comfortable in the pocket and not bail out so soon not throw it on the run and you've made some really good points about where his eyes need to be where his attention needs to be how he needs to feel the defense more instead of focusing on them and uh you know feel the pressure I mean instead of focusing on it just feel it as you continue to watch your your routes develop and anticipating someone breaking open but another thing uh that that is obvious on deep balls is that sometimes most of the time you've got to let the ball go before your guys's open yeah you know you have to anticipate it whether he's going to run a deep post or whether he's going to run a stutter and go or what whatever it is you've got to throw it before if you throw it after he's open most people don't realize that and that's a difficult adjustment for high school quarterbacks to make to college they wanted to wait till the guy's open to throw it it's too late you got too much speed especially in the SEC in the secondary to wait till the guy's open to throw it so he has to anticipate that and he doesn't need to let the pass pressure get to him as he's anticipating this guy coming open he's got to stay focused on no no he may get hit you know and that's not the end of the world to get you know to get hit uh another thing I'd like to say offensively you know you and I have also talked on the winning Drive podcast that we do on Monday and Thursday about the fact that that Ryan Wingo is doing really well at the white out but you're you you've reported that he hasn't been able to transition into all the positions and I'm wondering maybe as a freshman is it not better off just to leave him outside and let him really hone his skills because what we saw in the spring and what we've heard is that his timing is impeccable the way that he goes up and gets the ball he has he has very good control of his body almost acrobatic type yeah uh he's explosive when he goes up he knows how to how to uh as a basketball player almost block out you know the the the defensive guy so I'm wondering if maybe not putting so much on his play as a freshman let him play wide out let him be a go-to guy that you're going to go to on the Deep ball and I think that would really could really uh help our uh p uh completion percentage on the Deep balls uh coach I love what you brought up there about that double move I'm gonna come back to that because actually I am with you 100% as a defensive back there's nothing more terrifying than that damn double move because once if you bite on it even if you don't bite on it even if it's not a full commitment uh to the initial fake all you need is that DB to have uh disciplined eyes or their footwork to be a little bit off and that really can be a a a hell of a a gamechanging kind of play if you time it out right so I want to get back to that because I think you said you need time for the double move I think there is a Personnel grouping that can give them a little bit more time but getting back to the Deep ball uh there are 14% of your's throws Quin 's throws um were considered deep passes 20 yards more and he completed overall and this is not just the last seven starts we're talking about overall 33% completion percentage on those deep passes 20 yards more there that's good for 76 in the FPS so he's basically right around average right around a little bit below or above average the reason that is concerning for a lot is because of the receivers that you had last season right the uh the the Kan C Chiefs drafted Xavier worthy specifically for the purpose of bringing the verticality to their offense because they think he's a great deep threat now the numbers would argue against that Xavier worthy uh his offt Target throws in his career Texas 22.4 4% that was the highest offt Target rate of any wide receiver in his class the uh 9.2 yards per Target uh average on deep passes was actually the worst for any projected non undrafted free agent power five receiver coming out in that class he had 94 deep Targets in his career 25% completion uh 25% uh completion rate and the uh completion rate on the catchable deep passes was 77% Al among one of the lowest numbers but a lot of the people believe a lot of Scouts and believe that it wasn't Xavier Worthy's fault that was more on Quinn's development as a deep ball passer that is something that they want to see this season and even with the new receivers I wonder if chemistry on some of those deep passes is gonna be an issue so but like based on last season he was trending the right way but getting to your point coach about the most um effective deep routes the six0 line package we've talked about this the big 11 Big 12 package we're looking for Personnel groupings that will help you push the football down the field I don't think any of them are better than the 60 line packets for Texas whether you talking about big 11 Big 12 you're averaging damn near 12 yards per attempt uh and your straight drop back rate no play action no screens uh no RPO just a straight dropback rate is closer to 50% out of the 60 line package so when Sark wants to go down field Max protect double moves I think this is the p package you'll see to your point coach about yeah you I love the D move but you need time this package here can give them the time you have a you look at the explosive explosive play rate out of the past of the six0 line package you're looking at damn near 28% explosive play rate when you're passing out of the sixo line package so I think when you present power Personnel packages it allows you to Pivot to some play action pass principles as you like but even straight dropback in that situation but you can go down field because you got the protection and the time to do it yeah I love the play action and the corner post uh we used to call it cop route cop for corner post and uh you know with the play action you're holding the linebackers in a little bit receiver will break to the corner for three steps and then on that third step he plants and comes back inside that's one of the hardest passes to defend because if they work on it so much the the quarterback has already let the ball go by the time the DB has flipped his hips back inside because he's thinking oh no there's a lot of area there for me to cover on that on that corner route out there then of course just the opposite you know the pock route the Post Corner is also a tough one but I think it's a little easier for a DB because the ball is going to have some air under it uh whereas the corner post route the quarterback has a straight shot you know just he can throw a bead right at him but if it's going to be the Post Corner route he's got to put air under and DBS have more time to get to the ball so I'd like to see us run more of that cop route the coast the the corner post route and I don't think you have to have quite as much time to do that you don't have to run it real real deep if if the linebackers are sucking in on the Run fake yeah that's a good point coach and I almost wonder who's gonna be those deep threads I love your Ryan Wingo take you know that's a that's simple uh simple transition for a young wide receiver some of those deeper routes there is less uh Nuance right you're not asking him to learn multiple positions you're not asking him to do sight adjustments you're asking him hey I need you to run a nine route need to run a post route can you beat that guy and Ryan Wingo can do that so I was wonder if he'll uh emerge maybe early on as a deep thread for Texas that can take the top off a defense we know Isaiah bun has the world class speed if you go look at Isaiah bun um he actually in terms of being a Speedster he was last season he had 18 plays where he was clocked at at least 20 miles per hour um only Xavier worthy had more plays where he was clocked at least 20 miles per hour so is bun has got some world class speed but I got this little stat found interesting if you go look at the top speed of Xavier worthy and the top speed of Isaiah Bond on deep routes um is actually uh worthy slows down a little bit from his top speed on deep routes his top speed was on deep passes was 21 miles per hour but when he ran a a deep route um apparently his top speed was 21 but when he ran a deep route it dropped to 19.9 miles per hour strangely enough um and Isaiah Bond actually his top speed on deep routes was actually 20.6 miles per hour so he was faster when running a deep route he was faster than Xavier worthy was when running a deep route last year that that's amazing I think I think one thing that could explain that is Xavier throttles down a little bit to be able to adjust to the ball either to make a burst to go get it or come back inside if he needs to whatever on a ball that may be poorly thrown uh because if you're running full speed there's only one thing you can do and that's decelerate but if you're at 78 speed and you see the trajectory of the ball you can hit that extra gear and go get it I don't think that's all bad I think that's probably a pretty smart way to run I never wanted my guys running full speed because when that Ball's just just Out Of Reach it's nice if you've got a another gear where you can go past the DB and get it but I think Ryan wingle I see him certainly he doesn't have the build of of Randy Moss but I can see him what little I've seen he seems to have that Moss attitude the ball is in the air it's my ball to me that's what I always thought about Randy Moss I mean if if you're such a bad dude that people play games named after you hey man I'm GNA Moss you you know I mean that's a guy that's a guy who this ball is mine I mean it's mine I don't care what I got to do I'm gonna get it I see Wingo by the time he leave he leaves the 40 acres being that kind of Ball Hawk of a guy not I can't say I I think uh Randy Moss was probably the greatest receiver to ever play the game uh just everything that he brought to the table uh his freakish athletic ability I don't know that Wingo is on the freakish level but I think he's going to be a guy that's going to leave his Mark at the University yeah no I'm with you on that coach he's definitely got a tremendous upside yeah so you talking about throwing the ball deep I think the personnels a big part of it uh the Personnel groupings that you put together I talked about the big 11 Big 12 package I know they probably won't use the pony package as much but also you're averaging over 12 yards per attempt out of the pony package it seems to be when you want to stretch it down field that SAR has actually had more success based on my numbers and metrics with power Personnel packages rather than with spread Personnel of throwing the football downfield mostly because defenses are geared to try to stop the run when they see Power Personnel big bodies big humans multiple backs multiple tight ends and then you can always obviously pivot to more play action pass scenarios and get the football down field to add to that before we uh end the uh episode of football Theory I would got this this is NFL number so this is not college but it's NFL but it does track with presenting more power Personnel packages and that will open up the deeper uh vertical pass if you go look at average yards per route run which is kind of the most efficient metric to uh judge the passing game uh the in the NFL average yards per route run when you have one wide receiver on the field which means you got more tight ends and running backs 2.14 yards per route run with two wide receivers on the field 2.1 average yards per route run with three wide receivers on the field officially become the spread set that's your 11 personnel 1.39 yards per route run four wide receivers on the field 1.32 yards per route run so if you're looking at and I I even got it from a 60 line package from 2020 to 2022 in the NFL when you have six old linemen on the field 2.9 yards per route run in the NFL it tracks just with SAR metrics as well when he's got the six0 line package out there it allows him insulation and pass protection to stretch the football vertically 21 Personnel in the NFL 1.9 yards per route run 22 Personnel two backs two tight ends 1.8 yards per route run uh 13 Personnel three tight ends 1.8 yards per route run 12 Personnel 1.8 yards per route run but with two if you go just three wide receivers on the field that's when your yards per route run dropped to 1.4 1.45 1.42 11 personnel is 1.37 so it tracks that if you present a defense with power they will think run and then you can pull the oky do uh the Rope A Dope if you will throw the football and gain a lot more of your vertical yards that way I think that's kind of what SAR probably could lean on this season open up the vertical passing game in addition to what you said coach more double moves more Ryan Wing go deep I like that all right let's thank our fantastic sponsor Laura Baker before we get out of here uh we really appreciate Laura Baker being part of the ow Texas football family football theory is brought to you by accomplish Austin real to Laura Baker Laura and the Andy Allen team at K Williams can handle all of your real estate needs in the Austin area Laura is not only a Die Hard Longhorn fan but a long time Austin real estate expert so please give her a shout today 512 78405 that's 512 78455 thank you very much to Laura Baker and thank you very much to Matthew behind the scenes thank you coach for all of your wisdom um we appreciate that thank you for all you guys for joining us for watching and for listening to football Theory and until next time hook horns