Belarus MASSES Troops on Ukraine's Border!

is bellarus massing troops on the Ukrainian Border in preparation for an attack and has Russia launched a massive drone wave across Ukraine I'm Paul US Army Combat veteran let's talk about this potentially serious story okay so this is actually Ukraine who outed bellarus and the Bellar Russian military as massing near Ukraine's border what Ukraine calls quote under the guise of exercises and you might recall that in 201 20 Putin also massed his army on the border with Ukraine also claiming to be exercises obviously that was a Prelude to an invasion but the question is is this act by bellarus also an invasion well Ukraine is saying that a significant number of personnel being concentrated along the northern Ukrainian border with bellarus what they call under the guise of exercises minks says they're concentrating their special operations forces as well as tanks artillery mlrs air defense systems and engine in equipment near the Bellar Russian city of G and this is about 30 km from the Russia Ukraine border but what's also troubling is that Vagner PM PMC troops were also present in the area right now lucenko explicitly said uh this summer he sent about a third of his nation's Army to the Border um and luceno did not deny that a buildup was happening but said it was a result of misunderstanding between belus and Ukraine but it's not clear what that misunderstanding could be that would warrant this um of course the Bell Russians say this is purely defensive these air defenses are simply uh to shore up their border with Ukraine now what is actually happening here well we know that bellarus is a is effectively a Russian proxy State they host Russian troops and missiles and aircraft um but lucenko has actually uh been very prominent and very public with the fact that he doesn't want his troops involved in this um he has said repeatedly Putin has tried to persuade lucenko to involve Belarus directly in ground combat in Ukraine but lucenko has continually uh uh sort of curved him and the reason is pretty clear the B Russians unlike the Russians uh they know that they have no dog in this fight right Putin's whole rusky Mir nonsense and greater greater Russia well there is no greater Bell Russia so for lucenko and more importantly generals they've said listen we're not doing this we've seen the casualties that Russian Armed Forces take and we're not going to sub the Bellar Russian military to that same rate of casualties but has he it's possible that those generals have finally lost out and that uh Putin has made them an offer they literally can't refuse certainly this is the time when I think Putin would put the squeeze the hardest on Belarus given the fact that Putin really wants to be able to do two sort of uh differing things he wants to get the ukrainians out of KK and he wants to continue his denet offensive the only way to do that of course is to spread the Ukrainian forces even thinner and that would involve bringing bellarus into the fight but we're going to talk about if that's the only strategy that works but first of course if you feel like your spread a little thin take it on too much at once you don't have to enlist your shady autocratic neighbor instead you can just bump up your caffeine intake that's why I want you to check out strike gum if you're somebody who drinks Energy Drinks like Red Bull or Amp energy or any of those other energy drinks that you get at the gas station they're like five bucks a can I made strike gum for you this is this has all the caffeine of an energy drink plus 100 milligrams Alpha GPC in each individual piece right but it's got zero sugar so there's no sugar crash so you just pop it in chew it you get the same Rush of energy of an energy drink better in fact because we use ingredients like natural caffeine that's derived from green coffee beans none of the weird labade encapsulated stuff that they put in energy drinks right plus it's a refreshing mint flavor you're not going to smell like 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actually they only have about 63,000 active Personnel that's a lot that's still a lot because remember you're only looking the entire K incursion is only I think 10 to 15,000 reportedly um they're a very small uh military and take up only just 1% of the Bellar Russian GDP for context the American Military spends about 3% of its GDP on Military Affairs and the NATO standard is about 2% uh and they have less than a billion dollars of military uh expenditure so they would not be able to for example Drive uh you know drive all of this um you know drive a ton of uh territory right sees a ton of territory but what they would force Ukraine to do in all likelihood you could see here that when you look at the map you could see that bellus owns the majority in fact of this Ukrainian Northeastern border and what I think their goal is to create a situation where either they literally just even if they don't want to take territory they force the ukrainians to deploy a large number of brigades to sort of stop these troops here um but it's also possible that this is just a show now I point this out because let's say Belarus threateningly moves their army to the border and Ukraine what are they going to do they're going to have to respond so they're going to move let's say they move their own Brigade to the border right so again that would be still a pretty bad outnumbering right you'd be a brigade would be about 3,000 Ukrainian troops standing off against about the what 20,000 Bell Russian troops so you've got this sort of tradeoff and then what does that mean that means that a whole Ukrainian Brigade is out of the fight and I point this out because without firing a shot bellarus will have taken Ukrainian Brigade or Brigade plus out of the fight entirely this is one of this is a classic example of sort of the power of kind of deterrence and and uh the ability to sort of drain an opponent without necessarily firing a shot this is also an illustration of why it's so important to do intelligence work because let's say the CIA knocked on zelinsky's door and said Hey listen we can't tell you why we have very high confidence that lucenko not going to invade and that case Ukraine may just resort to firm words to say don't think about invading and that's it but let's say the CIA knocks on the door and says listen we have no idea what he's going to do well then you say shoot I can either pull a brigade off of these efforts or I can risk losing all of Chaya vblast right so for zalinsky you see the value of these intelligence officials and their ability to efficiently allocate their resources one other thing I want to point out that's troubling you notice Ukraine here we're looking at hundreds of drone strikes being launched across the uh the entirety of Ukraine you can see in KF air defense is being activated across the area lots and lots of drones being taken out lots and lots of drones hitting reportedly this was around 200 drones and missiles being fired by the Russian military at Targets again potentially deep in Ukraine you could see them being fired near uh a whole a variety of towns uh particularly in the East and of course in the central area of the country near Kev this is pro it's hard to say what exactly this is about this may be seen as punishment I think this is likely a counteract a counteraction to Ukraine launching its drone jet uh Russia just wants to send a reminder to Ukraine that says yeah you can have better drones but we still have these cruise missiles and quantity has a quality all its own one other story that I thought was really interesting we talked earlier about zalinsky meeting with Modi the um prime minister of India and we talked about the fact that Ukraine's economy just doesn't have a lot of economic uh uh credit to offer to India to say listen you don't have to partner with Russia I know they're making you a lot of money but there are that you should instead have your loyalty to Ukraine and you should abandon buying cheap Russian oil and selling them uh goods and buying from their military Manufacturing well zalinski wasn't able to offer him money but he was able to offer him something almost as good when you are an emerging power like India and that is prestige he in fact came out and said I would support India hosting the next peace Summit so hosting a major International a Global Peace Summit would be a massive boom to India right this is again a country that like China aspires to rise to be a global superpower and they have all the parts right they have a large population they have a really robust Technical and education sector right India has a space program okay they're only one of a handful of countries on planet Earth with a spa with a with an independent space program right again that's something that most European countries don't have so I say this because it would be prestigious to broker an actual peace deal and KV is hoping to bring in countries from the global South into kind of kev's uh uh fold so to speak the reason is of course that when you have Russia has really expanded its efforts to kind of pull in the global South right um Russia spins this narrative that says oh even though we're in Europe and we're an industrial country and uh we aren't the West we're not the big mean Colonial West uh we prefer to dominate our even though they're literally engaging in a colonial war um trying to uh Annex an independent people fold them into this Russian sphere of influence despite them literally actively doing that they're still knocking on the doors of African countries particularly dictatorships and saying listen don't go with those Colonial westerners with their constant hand ringing about human rights and trying to grow your economy come into the Russian fold we're going to be a better more honest partner and for zalinski and Kev they say listen we can't lose the global South right they're still collectively a very powerful block so having country that's considered the global South again they're a bricks country but to have them host the uh second piece Summit would be a very appealing offer and something that doesn't physically cost Ukraine anything other than just trading off um Prestige but again is zinski in danger of losing the support of Western Europe no are they in danger of losing the support of the United States also no so you might as well use this uh this tool this peace Summit to try to get what you want to try to get India to come over right of course it's a long way away uh and it's still again money talks in this world Prestige is good but money is better especially for a country like India who's really needs to make sure it's continually lifting its nearly a billion people out of poverty anyway guys that's all I had uh be sure to subscribe to the channel That makes a huge difference for me it tells YouTube algorithm that I make quality content and of course thanks to our Colonel tier members like James jerling Steve 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