SMASH THE NUMBERS: Michigan Football's "Big 3" Games: Texas, Oregon and OSU. Full Analytics Detail!

[Music] hello this is Ferris Khan for Michigan football at the voice of college football and today I'm going to do a deeper dive into the big three games for Michigan and the win probability of at least winning one out of Texas Oregon and Ohio State and maybe winning two and then actually winning all three and how important these three games are relative to uh the rest of the schedule now I am going to do a deeper dive I could because I did cover this topic last week I got a request to do a little bit deeper dive so we're going to go straight into Excel and I'm going to show you all my numbers and um would love to get your feedback as to for those of you who want to see the numbers in more detail um uh if I should kind of do it this way kind of going forward all right today we're coming to you from California Sun is uh just setting here background might be black or darker as we are um progressing on this video all right let's go into Excel now all right uh it is now later at night I did uh attempt to record with Excel was having a little trouble with that so I ended up cutting and pasting um so I will do excel in the future I'm going to just show you some Excel screenshots uh for now so first let me go straight into the data and kind of show you what I had from last week so you can see it um so on the left you see the Michigan schedule so starting with Fresno State all the way down through Ohio State uh the 12 games on the schedule uh I assigned a probability that Michigan would win each of these games so starting with Fresno State 90% probability Texas 35% probability now where did I get these probabilities from well I got them from the line uh so this is the betting line the actual line for Fresno State that I could find was 21 a half most of these or a lot of these I took from ESPN if I couldn't find ESPN uh I used other lines that I could find on the internet um uh for those of you who don't know how lines work minus 21 a half means Michigan is favored by 21 and a half over Fresno State plus three and a half yeah for that second row there uh Texas is favored over Michigan in the the big house by three and a half points typically uh a team that's playing at home gets three points uh for being the home team uh so you know sort of looking through all of these if if you kind of look at the lines uh that are known uh and again I found these from various sources if you have a better line or or you think the line is moved please let me know but uh Fresno State minus 21 a half Tex is plus three and a half USC we are 10.5 Point 10.5 favorite uh Washington 12 and a half Oregon we are the underdog by three points and uh Ohio State we are the underdog by nine and a half points uh of course origami OSU the paper champions of the 2024 off season uh everyone seems to be very high on them and for the fourth year in a row it appears uh that Ohio State their fans and the media um you know believe in Ohio State to beat Michigan and maybe hopefully they'll they'll Overlook Michigan we'll see all right now how did I convert from lines to probability I use the source of Phil steel uh so go to his website for more details but he did an analysis of um favorites so if we look look over here 0.5 to3 uh and the probability that the underdog would win 47.7% uh favorite three and a half to S probability that the underdog would win 35.3 so that's actually where I got the Texas line and the Oregon line so you can kind of see there's a pretty big difference 3 5% chance Michigan's going to beat Texas 48% chance that they're going to beat Oregon sorry um the difference in the line is only 0.5 so you know I believe that it should probably be more continuous rather than kind of these step changes uh a 0 five change in the line probably does not change the probability from um 35% to 48% that big of a an increase uh for Michigan to win but I'm sort of following the rules that Phil Steel Set uh so if it fits in a bucket of 0.5 to three points it goes uh to that 47.7 if it's three and a half points to Seven Points then it's 35.3 so uh hopefully that makes sense what's interesting is you know I think Michigan has a couple of negatives in terms of um impact to the line one is quarterback uh you know many people do not believe that Alex orgy can throw a forward pass if in fact he is the quarterback or maybe they don't you know there's just a quarterback uncertainty in general um people who haven't looked at the Michigan roster believe that there may be some uh big drop offs uh both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball uh on our Channel we've talked about uh some drop offs potentially uh certainly on offense certainly on at the quarterback position but on the defensive side we've actually made the argument that the team might be as good or maybe even better defensively than they were last year um uh we'll see you know Mason Graham Kenneth Grant uh you know perhaps they take a step up uh our secondary is much better than we thought you know we we'll see but uh arguably um you know I I think universally I think people think Michigan will regress but will they regress to the point of not being a playoff team that's the big question mark and that's what I'm hoping to kind of show here all right so hopefully you kind of understand how I converted uh the betting lines into probability of a win and then what I did is as we went through the season and I did do this last week but I did it at kind of a high high level I'm doing more detail here um because I got a specific request to kind of give a little bit more detail uh also I'm going to focus in on the big three games and I'm also going to kind of show the games where I think you know I don't think the line is correct so let's kind of go through that right now so first of all uh expected loss after Fresno State we're looking at a 0 one expected loss one in 10 chance that they'll lose that game 0.1 expected loss then as we kind of get go through the other games 75 76 Arkansas is 99 Arkansas State 99% probability we're going to win the game then you've got uh USC and according to this model what we're looking at is somewhere between the USC game and the Minnesota game Michigan will have its first loss uh as we're progressing through the season let me just kind of make a little comment on well I'll I'll go back to Fresno State and we'll and we'll uh kind of go through I I'll make some comments on the line uh the Fresno State Line 21 and a half okay I I guess that makes sense Fresno State is a strong team for the league that they're in or for the um conference that they're in uh Texas being a three and a half Point Underdog I I I would probably have it as a pick them I I am you know a little bit of a homer of course uh but that's that's uh how I'd look at it Texas has to go to Michigan and win the game at 11:00 a their time um and Michigan has a very strong running game probably can control the ball for a while uh I look at this as really a kind of a tossup game in my opinion uh Arkansas State uh no need to comment too much there I believe that is actually homecoming so they they want to get a win for home coming that makes sense uh USC some people are looking at that as potentially being a hiccup game uh so the line is 10 and a half so it is a very strong line in favor of Michigan uh was hoping that could be a 12 o'clock game it's not which would be 9:00 am USC time it's a 3:30 game um uh Theo on USC is that they can't play defense we'll see you know I believe they hired a new defense coordinator and um I would expect that game to be potentially a difficult game for Michigan but one that they should win uh they should beat Minnesota I'm not going to make too many comments on that I put a projected line for that one as 20 point or um yeah 20 points um the Washington line is 12 and a half so Michigan's favored 12 and a half points over Washington at Washington you know I feel like going across the country to West Coast I I think that's really a um uh that's giving Michigan a little bit too much of the benefit of the doubt I think uh I think that spread should be under 10 uh in my opinion so I think Washington will be a more difficult game than expected uh just because of the circumstances for Michigan to uh fly there uh and then have to beat a team on the West Coast uh then we have Illinois they should win that game Michigan State yeah it's a home game they should win you know I know it's a rivalry game but but uh you know let's say let's not comment too much and just say they're gonna win that game all right uh now we have Oregon so Oregon you know actually kind of looking back I I mentioned that somewhere between the USC and Minnesota they would lose their first game uh and then according to this model they're not still not going to lose their second game until almost the end of the year all right so uh the Oregon game the Oregan game uh the line was three points for that uh but it's being played in Michigan uh so Oregon is clearly the better team according to the odds here uh Oregon by the way is also favored over Ohio State by one point in Oregon so so um kind of do the math there and you can kind of see Michigan is a big Underdog to Ohio State Oregon Michigan is a slight Underdog to Oregon or three-point Underdog to Oregon uh but Michigan's a huge uh or but I'm sorry Oregon's also favored over Ohio State so if you kind of look at those three teams the spreads may not line up exactly I know there home versus away games you know that that's a fact but but if you kind of look look at those three teams um uh you know there's a little bit of a difference there now because this game the Oregon game was announced as a night game uh it does appear to me as if or that that three-point line maybe should become a two-point line or maybe even onepoint line uh we'll see but you know just something to sort of consider there does a would you value a night game probably a maze out um as worth two points maybe okay uh Indiana they should win Northwestern they should win all of you know both of those games I'm also putting a 20o projected line I don't have the actual numbers some some I'm projecting as 20 uh as the actual numbers do come in I will put them in uh this model and uh Michigan's expected to lose their second game by the Northwestern game now in this kind of scenario um this means that uh the Ohio State game would be you know if this actually happened this way and Michigan had two losses uh going into the Ohio State game I believe the Ohio State game winning that game would be uh what would Propel Michigan into the playoffs so the game would still matter to Michigan a huge amount Beyond just beating Ohio State now realistically if we look through all of the games Michigan should be able to run the table on all of the games except for the big three but according to this model we're expecting about 8/1 of a loss for all of the games outside of the big three so um not quite a one loss from from those nine games so you know nine you know the big three and then nine other games we're not quite expecting one loss out of those nine other games but pretty close to one loss so just just to kind of you know lay it out there Michigan is going to have a very exciting season and the reason for it is because they're just on the edge of the playoffs at least as we understand it their team right now the the team right now okay so now let me go over something I went over last week and I'm going to go into a little bit more detail as well what okay let's say they win out except for the big three all right so let's make the assumption that they are able to win the other nine games so there was three games left okay what is the probability that they're going to be Texas you know I said earlier 35% chance okay what is the probability that uh between Tech Texas and Oregon they win one of those games I did the math there and we're looking at a two and three chance 66% chance and then what is the probability that they win one out of three games meaning the Texas Oregon or OSU we're looking at a 75% uh chance so uh two and three chance to beat either Texas or Oregon and a 75% chance to win one out of Texas Oregon or OSU at least one okay now the probability just just so you know to win all three games is 4.4% you know as it stands right now I don't think any Michigan fan should realistically think that Michigan's going to win out and and be undefeated uh the schedule's just too tough and Michigan has lost uh so much right so what I would say is um because of the 12 12 team playoff There's an opportunity to not worry you know there's really a mulligan or you know one one loss really is not going to mean much Michigan will still make the playoffs probably still make it to the Big 10 title game two losses uh is is probably okay because Michigan has a very tough schedule I think they are still in the playoffs um three losses I think it's they're right on the edge probably out on the outside looking in they're they're a bubble team for sure I think we probably should you know I guess I'm going to coin that for um uh you know there'll be just like there is in basketball there'll also be bubble playoff teams in football and you know there'll probably be quote unquote one of the first four out uh if they lose three games uh in my view all right now let's also look at the probability okay let let's put all our eggs into Texas let's say Michigan can beat Texas Texas all right if they can beat Texas and the odds stay the same for Oregon and OSU what ends up happening well okay they beat Texas 100% chance let's just say they they beat him so it's 100% chance we're in the rear viw mirror now the probability to beat Oregon would be 48% um the probability to beat OSU incrementally is 14% so the total probability is 62% to win one out of the other two games and uh the probability of winning both is only 12% so what I would say is um you know let's kind of analyze this okay what does it mean to beat Texas or first of all it is a huge game it is at home but um uh and it does give them the inside track I think the winner of Texas versus uh Michigan has the inside track to uh to get to the playoffs uh they can afford to even you know Michigan can afford to lose both Oregon and OSU in the case of Texas they could afford to lose to two big um if they beat Michigan they can afford to lose to two big SEC teams and still be able to make the playoffs um so yeah it's huge from that standpoint but what I would say is the Oregon game is is the one I would say if I if I to take one game and say what is the most important game on Michigan schedule I would say it's the Oregon game it's at home it's at night uh it is in the Big 10 so it does uh count for the Big 10 standings and the opportunity to play in the uh Big 10 title game um one little note here Penn State does not have to play in Michigan or Oregon so they could be sort of on the outside just kind of doing their thing uh they get through the season they only have one loss they didn't have to play Oregon or Michigan and they're in the title game uh you know you know potentially instead of Oregon or Michigan so uh just just kind of keep that in mind all right so kind of going back to the overall schedule what I would say is if I were to rank the games in terms of importance I would say Oregon that's you know the idea that uh Michigan you know let's say they they win out they get to Oregon um the chances of winning against Oregon are much higher than Ohio State uh so that gives them the inside track to get to the uh Big 10 title game now let's say they lose to Texas when they get to Oregon that is the game they need to win in order to make the playoffs so that they don't have to worry about Ohio State now I said Ohio State could be very important for Michigan if they have two losses if they only have one loss maybe it's not as important and the game kind of turns into a game because both teams in theory let's say Ohio state has one or zero losses at that point um um and Michigan has uh only one loss or zero either way uh that game both teams will make it maybe they even play you know backto back two weeks in a row because they'll meet again in the Big 10 title game so that's a scenario where the game could be just a game all right now uh hopefully all of that makes sense uh please let me know if uh if there's something here that you'd like to have a little bit more uh deeper dive in a viewer actually asked me to go deeper here so I so I did it a longer video to kind of explain all the details uh with respect to this all right and um what we what I'd like to do is kind of going forward as as the lines are known I'll go ahead and update this model if you have additional factors that you think uh you know I used Phil steel as a source if you have another source in terms of uh trying to translate lines into probability of winning and then kind of looking at it game by game of course you know some factors of are uh Alex orgy as the quarterback and if he is the quarterback let's say he is uh the certainty of can he get to I think the magic number we've used in our channel is 62% completion JJ was at 72% so if Alex orgy can get somewhere in the ballpark doesn't have to match JJ but let's say gets to 62% completion keeps the inter interceptions in check he is so valuable potentially as a runner that um you know Michigan maybe running 60 to 65% of the time is okay uh just a a reminder Alabama ran into in uh ran more as a percentage of plays than Michigan last year they were in the they were undefeated in the highflying SEC they did lose to Texas but Texas was not in the SEC at the time um so just kind of keep that in mind you know Michigan still can be a very big running team they just need to be able to pass a certain you know percentage you know 30% 30 I'm sorry 35 to 40% of the time passing plays of those passing plays if they can complete about 62% I think that's the magic number uh where Michigan can maybe more comfortably more reasonably get to two losses okay optimistically Michigan probably is going to have uh let's say two losses is what I would say realistically somewhere on the edge between two and three pessimistically they lose a game that they're not you know that that they're favored in let's say USC or Washington something like that and they're not able to Lo win any of those three games so they would have four losses maybe three to four losses if you say that they would win one out of those three games let me know what you think in the comments below and uh see you next time on smash the numbers