Bitcoin (BTC): This Major 584 Day Long Support NEEDS TO HOLD!! (WATCH ASAP)

Intro. okay megaw team welcome back to the channel thank you for tuning in I hope you're all having a fantastic day today in today's video we are taking a look at the macro and the short-term price action discussing the recent correction to 57,000 what implications may this have on the high time frame charts what are the next short-term expectations and the key levels you should be paying attention to we'll also be discussing the daily chart in massive amounts of detail as well as the weekly technical levels you should be paying attention to before we do get into it smash that like button hit that com button and subscribe to the channel WE Post daily videos of Bitcoin focusing on the facts the data the technical and the structural information no hype no BFS no emotion pure raw ta if that is the kind of content you interested in join us on telegram it is the first link down below you'll get access to charts updates videos educational posts news events and everything you need to stay in 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of things behind the scenes that goes on when we see these large Corrections there's some rumors saying that this move was to liquidate a large entity that was Overexposed in Long positions but nevertheless whatever the consequence whatever the cause of this correction was is irrelevant the fact of the matter is Bitcoin has now seen that correction we're now sitting at 59,000 uh as a consequence of what was quite a steep correction over the past 24 to 48 hours now what we have seen over the past 24 hours is that Bitcoin is more or less holding relatively steady at that range low of support if you do remember prior to the break upwards we had this horizontal consolidation of course we had that Range High Resistance which we eventually broke toward the upside resulting in a continuation to our prior area of support retesting that as a resistance we with unable to sustain above that region which resulted in a small draw down towards that prior resistance as support and that is when we saw that cataclysmic correction on the short term taking us all the way back down to that range low support of the horizontal consolidation so for the most part we can take a look at this recent breakout and ignore this St point and look at the horizontal consolidation we have still sitting within we'll be doing that in today's video discussing you know what is the likelihood of a continuation what is the likelihood of a continuation downwards and what are we watching for either of these scenarios to actually activate and to trigger we'll also be jumping into the daily charts discussing what implication this short-term correction has really had and particularly what the midline breakdown really means as it doesn't really mean what you probably think it means we discuss that in detail today and of course we're discussing the possibility for a high time frame downtrend and what really needs to happen for Bitcoin to finally break through this bullish consolidation so again we'll get into all that starting on the market data that was a quick update 24-hour volume down 3.52% 153 billion 24 liquidations down 46% still quite a fair amount at 168 million of the 168 million in liquidations 99 million come from Longs and 68 million coming from shorts the dxy has seen a small little bounce again DXY, Economic news & S&P500. this is going to be our sside liquidity as we've said this is going to be our first reversal point for the correction after which we broke down from that yearly uptrend if we do lose this local low at 100 we are expecting a continuation to retest 99.5 until then this may or may not be a point of which that could result in a continuation to potentially reject and retest that yearly uptrend while we remain underneath this yearly uptrend the macro expectation is that the dxy is going to eventually continue downwards however that the short-term price section now is at a local support and therefore we do not expect immediate Corrections on the dxy while this level is able to sustain however like we just said we have broken down from a a multi-year this is a year and a half long symmetrical triangle formation which if we look at the measured move does indicate a price target of around that 94 to 93 level so a massive potential correction for dxy is looming in the coming months if we are able to sustain underneath that uptrend pay attention to that the S&P 500 has seen as a consequence of the dxy bouncing money flowing out of risk assets we talked about in our prior video we have seen a little bit of correction here for the S&P 500 again unable to break through that prior High Point not too much of a concern as we mentioned we do want to see the price sustain above that 5,300 level until then we are just developing a range so until we break below 5,300 and actually break that range low we're going to be chopping between this range until we make that directional decision are we going to see the break upwards or are we going to see a high time frame downtrend remember under 5,300 we enter a high time frame downtrend we are officially now bearish for the first time in the S&P 500 since we broke out of that resistance all the way back at January 2023 that would be when we become bearish on the S&P 500 until then we are expecting continuations and particularly if we break over that prior High we look for 6,000 that is it guys let's jump into Bitcoin a quick word from today's video sponsor if you do want 15 to 45% discounts on your trading fees for Life sign up to bit Unix BX and bitat down below using my referral links you have to sign up viy those links to get access to that you'll also get access to around $5,000 in trading rewards you can sign to any or all of those links but you don't need to of course sign to all of them it's kind of pointless choose one to trade on you will still get that discount on your trading feves and you'll still support the channel you can find out more information about a couple of those exchanges in a 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when we break through this midline we generally see a Complete daily analysis. directional continuation to the Range High and we break down below the midline we generally see a directional continuation to the range low however there is a Nuance to that statement as well when we break from the bottom side above the midline there is a greater probability that we see a Range High retest first over a range low retest and to show you the exact example of what we mean we're going to be utilizing this particular example right over here so let's go ahead and take a look at this scen scenario we saw that daily candle close underneath the midline we saw a correction but then we saw a continuation back above that midline and then we saw a correction to a range because at the point of the breakdown of that midline from that point onwards the probability of an eventual range low retest is greater than a Range High retest we will eventually retest the range low at a greater probability prior to retesting the Range High so that's the key word prior to retesting so when we broke above that midline after retesting the range low there is a greater probability we will eventually retest the Range High first before then retesting the range low now we can look at other scenarios of India's Channel such as this scenario here we broke through the midline there was a greater probability we would then retest the range high before retesting the range low we did do in fact that we can look at the next scenario we broke down from the midline there's a greater probability now from this point onwards we retest the range low prior to retesting the Range High that is a tick we did that and we can look at this scenario again a greater probability we retest the Range High prior to retesting a range low a tick so we're can see how the retest or the Breakthrough of midline doesn't necessarily and we never said and we want to make very very clear that it doesn't necessarily mean we're going to see those immediate continuations to the Range High as we've said many times the distance from that midline to the range high is a massive massive area of resistance it's going to take a very long time for the price action multiple weeks potentially to see those continuations what is very important is when we look at this trigger point understand what the trigger point means it means when we break through that trigger point the probability we'll see a Range High retest prior to a range low retest is greater so that is what we're still going off and if you're looking at the midline you're saying we've lost the midline is game over well we can look at scenarios such as this we've seeing that breakdown then we see a loss of the midline again only to then eventually see the continuation so what is really important is we look at the short-term trigger points that they're going to really Define where Bitcoin is going to go next and then use the high time frame context as as a a as Confluence for those statements so on the macro chart Bitcoin is still technically bullish right there are a lot of warning signs developing there are a lot of things on the charts that I don't like to look of we'll get to that into a second however we do have to take this formation at a face value this at the end of the day is a descending Channel formation and while we remain between the Range High and range low all this chop all this sideways sporadic price action this unclear directional continuations in the short term all of it should be expected we are in a consolidation range only upon the breakout of the Range High and the breakdown of the range low will we then get a definitive answer in regards to where Bitcoin is going to move to on the high time frame charts until then any movement between that low and that high is expected and normal healthy consolidation that is what we have to pay attention to again it is the depth of this Channel and by depth I mean the volatility or the percentage change between the range range low and Range High that gives the illusion that these moves are unnatural and gives the illusion that these moves have more significance than they actually do we have to watch the high time frame trigger points of the structural consolidation to then determine the directional continuations so for now we haven't seen much change on the short term we have seen a correction and let's go ahead now and discuss that so what we have seen guys on the short term is a correction we have retested our critical level of support at 58,000 if we do look at this is going to be our short-term consolidation range we then break upwards we failed to continue higher we rejected from that prior area of resistance this is our prior support turned into an area of resistance we do know for a fact that this is going to be our weekly resistance we do need to break above to then see a continuation into the upper part of the channel again we do have Confluence here with that Weekly RSI we'll come back and discuss the weekly RSI in a second but more importantly on the horizontal scale we definitely need to break above this region to then see a a continuation high as you can see the vrpb starts decreasing as we push past this region as opposed to increasing into that region of resistance you can see a very clear difference over here so again we do need to break through 64,000 we need to sustain above 64,000 which is going to be our current resistance to see those directional continuations higher on the downside we do have a local support support at 58,000 we''ve also got our cell side liquidity at 56 and we've got our critical base of support at 54 which is also now developed into 53,000 which is going to be that range low of the consolidation that macro consolidation that range low region if we do not sustain above 53 to 54,000 on the daily chart if we look we have never seen a daily candle close below or above this region if we close a daily candle below or above this consolidation that will be adequate to assume that we are going to see directional continuations so worst case scenario Bitcoin could see this Wick fill and the price action come back down to this region that it's worst case scenario but we are still likely to hold onto this consolidation while we are within only upon the daily candle close below would we inv validate this bullish structure as well as enter a official High time frame downtrend according to the gon channel on the 3-day chart which we'll come back to and discuss in just a moment moving back to Complete short term analysis. the short-term price action there are a few scenarios of which Bitcoin could undergo over here of course for us to be confident in a bullish reversal Bitcoin will need to break above 64,000 that is a must okay so that is when Bitcoin will turn bullish again on the higher time frame and we would see a continuation into that $ 69 $70,000 region on the short term we are at a area of support this is a critical area of support that Bitcoin will need to sustain we have also got our cell side liquidity which we could see liquidation weeks down to before continuations that is also a key point we should be watching if we drop below this 50 what is it going to be $56,000 level the sside liquidity it is a very very high chance we then see a continuation into 54,000 to 53,000 to retest that low point until then I would assume Bitcoin is closer to a reversal than a continuation low so we're watching for reversals to develop from this Support over here if we do see this liquidity range retested I would expect bounces to develop if we lose that liquidity level that s liquidity I would then expect a reversal to in uh complete towards the range of the channel at 54,000 to 53,000 again the price action is immensely choppy here it is very very hard to read what is happening again there's a lot of manipulation going on a lot of hedge funds trading against each other a lot of large transactions occurring pushing price action very rapidly in either direction but we have to take a look at the information we have available what can we see developing we can see immediately on the hourly chart that momentum is starting to show initial signs of bearish exhaustion at support and therefore we are again assuming this level will hold a support until proven otherwise support is support until is not we can see already that RSI is slightly peaky its head over indicating momentum is starting to to flip back positive we could then see a continuation upwards into that midline resistance yet again so keep your eyes on that guys again I I'll summarize the most important levels the most important levels are going to be our short-term supports at the current point of retest 58,000 to 56,000 we have got our macro High time frame support at 54 to 53,000 which is going to be our range low and then we've got our major point of resistance at 54,000 which we need to break above until then we are still chopping sideways nothing is really happening don't get caught up too much in the short term the weekly chart is something of massive Weekly and 3 day analysis.19:25 significance and this is going to be that Weekly RSI we need to see for Bitcoin to continue higher within this Channel and potentially breakout this weekly RSI needs to break positive it is as simple as that but it needs to break positive prior to a breakdown of this horizontal level at 44 if we see a break down of the horizontal level of 44 which is a indication of the prior low point for Bitcoin right over here okay if we see the RSI break below this region prior to a breakup that would almost guarantee the fact that we are going to see a very strong correction and invalidation of this channel in fact they may occur around about the same time if it were to develop okay this would tell us that this strength okay strength can be represented momentum at this point in the price is lower than the momentum strength at this point all the way back in October 2023 which is an indication the price has overextended and we then could see a continuation downwards into a high time frame downtrend that would be a very very bearish thing if we were to see that furthermore if we look at the 3-day chart if that were to occur it is highly likely that Bitcoin will be breaking below the goian channel lower band okay for the first time in over a year and a half since January 2023 again this is a bullish flip in the gon Channel this a breakdown would be a bearish flip in the gzone channel you can see we have not done that yet and we wouldn't have done it for Jan since January 2023 23 up to present so if we were to see the 3-day breakdown here we would also see the weekly RSI breakdown we would very likely see the bullish structure invalidate and we would then very likely enter a higher time frame downtrend with price of 50,000 49,000 potentially even 42,000 watch out for that that is the worst case scenario do I think it's going to happen I would say according to the current data it is unlikely but it is always a possibility watch that Weekly RSI that is what I'm watching most importantly thanks for tuning in guys have a fantastic day we'll catch you guys in the next video see you then