Asian Perspectives on the U.S. Election

good morning good afternoon and good evening I have to say all three of those things because we are um hosting this event um to a global audience today my name is Anthony bubalo and I am the CEO of Asia Society Australia and I'll be your moderator this evening for our Global Asia Society event exploring Asian perspectives on the US election what makes this what makes tonight's event special is is that it is a combined effort of four of Asia sociey centers Asia Society India Asia Society Hong Kong Asia Society Japan and of course here uh in Melbourne Asia Society Australia we're joined we've been joined this this evening or this morning or this afternoon uh online by viewers across the region and indeed across the world as well as as I mentioned a live audience here at the Asia Society headqu bers in Melbourne and we're here to talk about something that um uh lots of people in the world are talking about um you know it's it's actually hard to say you can debate whether this us election will be any more consequential than previous US elections uh but what you can certainly say about a US election is that that it captures the attention of the world like no other election now there are a couple of reasons for that one is of course that um because of America's role and weight in the world um how America votes in November will have a material consequence for many countries uh around the world but it's also true uh that the character and the color and the drama and the spectacle of us uh presidential elections also draws Global attention and certainly the current contest and the current contestants um have uh contribute a fair share of color and drama and we saw both those factors at play in the first uh presidential debate between Kamala Harris and uh and Donald Trump um this morning or in the last 20 in the last uh 24 hours um you saw you saw everything from a discussion about the about the America's standing in the world to whether American pets were safe from uh immigrants to America so it had a little bit of everything it had that uh the seriousness but it also has some of the drama and the color so what does the forthcoming election mean for the world what's at stake for the global Community we often hear uh perspectives from America and from Europe um but what does Asia think and that's what we're here to discuss to explore tonight and to do that we've we've assembled a terrific panel from across the region drawing on the networks of each of our centers um so let me let me start introducing uh some of our speakers I will introducing all of our panelists so joining us tonight to provide an Australian perspective even though she's actually joining us from Malaysia um where she's on a research trip is Dr Natalie sambi uh Natalie is a senior policy fellow here at Asia Society Australia and uh because we like to provide value to our audiences I will also be asking her tonight not just about Australian perspectives on the election but also about Southeast Asian perspectives joining us from Hong Kong is Deborah Mau uh an asia-based broadcast journalist for Bloomberg TV and a former Taiwan bureau chief for Bloomberg News from India uh we have harsh vardan shringla a distinguished former Indian Diplomat who served as India's foreign secretary from 2020 to 2022 and who is previously India's ambassador to the United States and from Japan we are joined boir Yuki Akita a commentator of the Japanese media organization nikai who writes commentaries and analyses on foreign on Foreign Affairs and International Security issues so the way the event will work is that um I will uh have a conversation with our panelists I'll ask them a series of questions we will then uh provide uh those uh our audience here live in Melbourne but also our audience around the world with an opportunity to ask some questions so for those of you online um as you're following the conversation uh start sending your questions in um obviously we can't ask every question uh we assume that there's going to be quite a few you'll improve your chances by asking uh short uh short direct questions um anyway so that'll come later in today so um first of well I'd like to welcome all the panelists um let me start with a question to all four of you um if you had to name one or two issues that are most at stake for your country in the forthcoming us election uh or in the case of Hong Kong for Hong Kong um what would they be um harsh let's start with you thank you Anthony uh let me first of first off uh greet my fellow panelists and of course our moderator that's you Anthony bubalo um greetings to all who have joined us but I know that you're from different time zones so I just want to say namaste to everybody and of course thank you to uh Asia Society Australia for the opportunity to provide perspectives on the US presidential election Asian perspective on the US presidential election so uh to before I answer the question Anthony I thought I'd just take a few seconds to put the India us relationship in some perspective over the last two decades uh the relationship has seen a transformation uh of the likes that I think is is very rare uh we've gone from what uh scholar Diplomat Dennis cuck calls uh you know uh being moving from a strange democracies to engage democracies so today we uh and the United States are cooperating across the board on areas like trade and investment uh technology defense a robust peopl to- people engagement uh there's practically no us Fortune 500 company that doesn't have a presence in India so given these synergies it's it's obvious and it is only to be expected that the US presidential election would be watched with a great amount of interest in India and perhaps a little bit of trepidation as well um coming to what two issues could be of the most importance to India in the election uh I would say that India would like to see a strong United States that takes a proactive and constructive role in maintaining Global Peace and security uh in an interdependent and interl world what happens uh you know in a conflict in Europe can resonate adversely uh on countries across the globe thousands of miles away uh in in terms of the costs of their Rising costs of imports of essential food and fertilizer and fuel but also in terms of Tourism remittances Etc indebtedness so I speak not just for India and our neighboring countries but also the entire Global South when I say that we would like uh to see uh United States that is proactively working to end conflicts in Europe in the Middle East and maintain uh Global uh peace and security the second issue that I think is important for us in India and and again for the developing World on the whole is the need for the US uh you know to focus on economic growth and stability a stable US economy augers well for countries across the world whether it is in terms of uh you know controlling inflation or ensuring uh that currency fluctuations are minimized so from that perspective I think we would certainly like the US to play a responsible Global role uh and and essenti focus on Global Peace and security and and Global uh growth and and stability and and I think these are the foremost that come to any country in the developing world or across the world and from India's perspective of course a focus on issues like the Indo Pacific is important uh but then I think uh you know broadly those are the two on my wish list Anthony thanks harsh um Debra I like to go to you in Hong Kong next um what are the you know one or two issues that matter for Hong Kong so I was saying saying Anthony I actually um came prepared with very little to say about Hong Kong um but I am prepared to address uh concerns for the country that we're uh living in um and that is um you know giving sort of the the Chinese perspective on um on what is happening over uh in the US um so you know obviously there's a very long list of um of issues to choose from uh from you know flash points in Regional security to trade and um economics uh but I want to sort of direct people's um attention to um one piece of messaging that has become um very clear uh in recent days um coming from the um top leadership in China and um we saw it uh you know when Jake Sullivan National Security adviser um visited China at the end of last month and um since then there has been further um government commentary on this but it's it's sort of this um what the leadership is seeing as underlying uh why relations are so bad right now and and that's a need for the United States to somehow achieve a better understanding of um of China um and part of this is China's motivations its values its uh calculations um what it wants to be in the world um we saw president Xi Jinping this was the top point that he raised with uh Jake Sullivan um it was echoed by the Vice chairman of the central military commission um Jang yosa um who's uh pretty much number two to to she in terms of the military that China that that the US needs to fix what is an incorrect um strategic understanding of China and return to a more ational pragmatic um uh policy and then um perhaps foreign minister Wang Yi gave the most descriptive um uh um uh articulation of of what what what they mean by this incorrect understanding and he says the US should not speculate about China based on its own experience and should not project its own model of global dominance onto China um and all of these comments were followed several days later by a significant uh commentary in the people's daily which is um SE to be a pretty accurate guide of um what central policy makers are thinking and um again reiterating that an accurate strategic understanding of China is the first step towards any patching up of relations um so you know oftentimes these sorts of comments don't get a lot of coverage um in the media because it's it's sort of philosophical um in nature and uh but it is significant that it is coming from the Chinese uh the top Chinese leadership um at this particular point in time um and it it really signals that they uh you know the government sees um a very different um view from the US where you know any strong country would seek to dominate and and form alliances which is what the you know American mentality um tends to be and this desire to shape the world according to its own national interests um so so China perhaps you know underscoring that that that that it doesn't cover all of its motivations and interests so coming back to the question what what's at stake here in in the current election um I think China is looking for the next Administration whoever leads it to achieve a much better understanding of of China its motivations its thinking and to set aside sort of these cold war-based assumptions and to um reset the narrative with with with more uh positive thinking for the future and obviously this affects everything from you know from issues around Regional security to um the trade war and Industrial policy um and everything in between um and secondly uh I think China also is looking at at um achieving being able to align with the United States um in the future on on on issues of global significance so things like the crisis in the Middle East um bringing Russia and Ukraine to the table for talks um and um other issues crises really uh surrounding the climate and um um AI which is requiring a lot of global um coordination and cooperation that may not yet uh be where it needs to be thanks uh hero we'll go to you next in Japan thank you very much for having me so since um Mr Trump scenario and vice president har scenario are so different so please let me uh share with you Japanese perspective on each scenario so first uh Trump scenario so when Mr Trump was a president Japan did not suffer big uh shock compared to Europe on mainly because prime minister Abbe had exceptionally good relation with Mr Trump by playing frequently playing golf and also enjoying American beef hamburgers and I don't know the score of the the golf match since it is a still National security is secret but I'm sure that they enjoy it a lot but Japan is aware that uh there's no guarantee that Japan will enjoy same success next time so there is a strong awareness that if Mr Trump get elected Japan will face Paramount pressure on security and trade but that is not the real uh biggest concern that Japan have the biggest concern is that Mr Trump will may eventually make strike a deal with a country like a China or Russia or North Korea at the expense of Japan or other us allies especially on China since Japan is facing China uh Japan worries that uh Mr Trump may start by imposing huge economic pressure on China but if China will come up with the very attractive trade deal ja war is that Mr Trump may take it by making a concession at uh on Taiwan or other security issues so that will be that will maybe uh that will in long run that will destabilize Asian security situation so that kind of a uh the deal big deal between us and China over thehead of you Japan could be that n scenario for Japan rather than huge pressure on security bur sharing or trade on U Harris vice president Harris scenario of course we all uh expect that there will be a much more consistency but uh it is also likely that uh vice president Harris will not get satisfied only by tracing uh Biden Biden foreign policy for all four years so at some point we assume that Miss halis will try to differentiate and what will be the difference my perspective is that uh the generational difference uh Mr Biden spent long political career during Cold War when us played a critical leading role to fight against USSR but the vice president Harris became a senator in 2016 uh it is three years after then President Obama announced that us will not play the role of world policeman anymore so uh lastly if even though uh vice president Harris has very tough or uh tough stance against Russia and also tough on China but it may be possible that uh vice president harist will pursue more pragmatic or realistic approach to especially to China uh whether good or bad being aware the limitation of us uh state power that is my that is the kind of uh aspect that Japan will pay attention to thank you uh thanks hero uh and finally Natalie um a perspective from Australia what what matters uh from this election for Australia and and also for Southeast Asia obviously separate question but um we'll get both those perspectives from you sure thanks Anthony um look I mean in the first Trump Administration and for the most part the Australia America relationship was relatively shielded from a lot of the shocks um that was mentioned earlier with respect to Europe so we've got very strong Alliance there um and we may not be so lucky the second time around with the Trump presidency um I think Australia will be also concerned about the extent to which the United States will continue to play a responsible leadership role in the Indo Pacific now ultimately Australia is looking for the prevention of the kinds of instability that would be not conducive to economic growth not only for for itself but to its closest neighbors as well it's looking for a lack of preponderance of power and so ensuring that the United States continues to play The Balancing role and continues to become a good security partner and economic partner not only for Australia but for its Partners in Southeast Asia is of critical importance and one of the things I think underpinning the extent to which United States has the bandwidth to be able to play that constructive indopacific role is the extent to which it has domestic stability and when we look at inreasing polarization across the United States one also wonders the extent to which they might have a residence effect of the kinds of issues about immigration that we're also seeing resonating in parts of Europe and the UK in places like Australia and I say that because there have been studies that show that extreme right-wing rhetoric across American social media websites is starting to become reflected in Australian rhetoric as well and so what we don't want is a flowing effect the kinds of instability that's happening domestically in the United States to start permeating our national conversation about immigration and about Australian society and our place within the region so again that's perhaps a minor point but I think something that we're not paying as much attention to and the extent to which the political circumstances of the United States not only affect Australia in a domestic sense but perhaps also impede its ability to play that really constructive role so I think that would be the concern of domestic issues and then a wish for the United States to continue doing what it's doing um to the best of its ability now if we take that from Southeast Asia's perspective I the United States has become a good security partner for many countries in the region indeed it has a lot of um allies as well but if you look at the latest uh survey the state of Southeast Asia held by our colleagues in Singapore the isas think tank of the main concerns facing southeast Asia Elites in those countries nominated unemployment and economic recession and widening socio economic gaps and Rising income inequality and inevitably southeast Asia will be looking for opportunities not just from Japan South Korea India other partners in Australia but certainly the United States the extent to which Vietnam has been looking for recognition um to be uh a different kind of competitive economy amongst other things a market economy um these are the kinds of things that our region will be looking for from the United States so indeed um I want to reiterate a point Debra made not only will southeast Asia be looking for those economic opportunities but it will also be looking to not being continually placed in a position of having to choose um the United States will often say that it's dropped rhetoric about this pushing southeast Asia to choose between the US and China um I would hope under whichever Administration whether it's Trump or Harris that there is in de's words a better understanding of autonomy um and agency among Southeast Asian States and this is not necessarily about winning over one side or another it's about understanding the interests that siiz states have and learning how to be not only a responsible leader but a really constructive partner as well thanks one of the things that make uh the US election um very Vivid is obviously the coverage um that uh is seen around the world and it almost feels like we get to know uh the candidates you know quite intimately um so I want to ask a question that might be a little difficult to answer but let's have it go anyway um if if if your country had a vote in the in the election who would they vote for would they vote for Trump or would they vote for um uh Harris and and if if would that would that would the the kind of the popular vote align with um the desires of the the government of your country so would that would the government be hoping for a different candidate would be hoping for a similar candidate um jebra let's start with you and talk about China I know difficult question but if you had to guess if if the Chinese people got a vote who would they vote for so the timing of today's panel is um quite perfect uh because it kind of uh just ignited social media um you know of people watching this debate and and weighing in with their views so I think um based on sort of the initial reactions to what we saw this morning um you know Harris probably came out on top and um you know generally speaking uh there's certainly um less kind of distaste for Trump in China than uh there is in the United States um not to say that you know they love him but um there's I guess more popular kind of uh support for Trump than than the government um uh might signal um so the the you know social media on Trump tends to focus on his wealth um his business experience just recently um you know Baron uh Trump his youngest child um going to NYU um was was uh trending um and um generally speaking you know the the this kind of pro Trump camp in China um tends to be uh people who enjoy that he's um a realist on International Affairs um domestically he's sort of anti-woke tough on China um which appeals to certain liberal parts of the um Chinese population um the the uh pro- isolationism um is something that appeals and perhaps um you know this end to us moral high-handedness um is sort of lecturing the world that Trump um is not likely to do um so those are the things that that kind of appeal to the uh Chinese public on Harris um you know social media today say she she's younger she uh uh was was looking more you know had more vitality and she was much better at staying on topic um however there was a lot of criticism about what's perceived as you know media bias towards uh this candidate so the fact that the moderators were factchecking her um factchecking Trump um kind of played you know to her favor um and then um you know but but but overall uh she she kind of came out as as the winner today um interestingly you know WS uh her Vice presidental pick his China experience does not seem to um get very much play at all people don't seem to care um and then on the other hand um for Harris there is a lot of this taoy um uh coverage around her her you know her personal life so you know linkage linkages to former San Francisco mayor Willie Brown um you know calling her you know a mistress that type of thing and then um just recently some um details about her uh husband Douglas mhof and you know his his personal Liv so the Chinese um population is sort of all over uh the the sorted details um over there thanks hero um let's go to you next the Japanese people get a vote who are they voting for 70% Harris and 30% uh Trump that is my instinct so maybe interesting part is why 30% people may vote Mr Trump let's start from that uh Mr Trump is a very very was very very of course unpredictable and sometime uh very very uh how can I say disruptive but at the same time when we look back the first term uh thanks to Mr Trump's pressure all us allies in NATO and Asia have realized that we cannot keep sheep riding or free riding or cheap riding on US security umbrella and have significantly started to increase the defense budget Japan decided to make uh decided to double defense budget from 2022 to 2027 so in a way Trump shock halfway functioned quite well so far and also uh second reason this is only two reason second two reason is that Mr Trump basically wants to make make you make you America great again so I'm sure that he's a transactional and also he as I said he will make some he may make some deal at ex with the great power other great Powers at the expense of us allies but if he persist with that notion that America have to be great maybe it could be a last result that Mr Trump will make will not make a catastrophic decision to weaken the US leadership uh in the future so maybe that is uh two reason why but the 70% uh harest obviously she is more we can expect more consistency and also uh of course she is likely to make much of us Alliance Network and Japan and also us other allies in the US is already committed to invest more for security and in that context uh Harris is good and also lastly most importantly when I look at the today's presidential debate there was Q and A on uh Russian invasion to Ukraine and president vice president har is categorically said that we have to win we mean we have to defeat Russia but Mr Trump said we have to finish he want to want to finish the war so I think that the finishing a war by potentially forcing Ukraine to compromise on some part of territory could be could Le to a more catastrophic scenario in long run so that is another why I think Harris is more favorable thank you um Natalie who are Australians voting for oh Anthony I was going to go with Indonesia look I think it really depends in the Australian context you know if you're more you know of as hero mentioned just now if with Trump's anti-work agenda if you're of an ultra conservative persuasion then you might find someone like Trump uh more palatable you may find a strong man fig girl more palatable if you're more on the Progressive side you may look for a Harris a leadership I think if I am going to skip to the region though I think because it's important to talk about the extent to which this is looked at from a regional perspective and how hard it's generalized so just quickly picking up Indonesia as an example um looking at Trump at the potential again as I said earlier for economic opportunities bolstering you know the prospect of jobs for a large population a very young population as well but at the same time the growing discontent with the current president and the ways in which laws in the Constitution have been manipulated so potentially a Harris presidency that might promote democracy human rights and anti-corruption could equally be appealing so it's not such a clear-cut answer I think but I think the number one issue for certain countries particularly in Southeast Asia uh would be the way in which the United States handles the ongoing conflict and blood shedding data certainly uh finally harsh how is India voting so let's uh start with U kamla Harris who's of Indian origin her mother was from India uh in 2019 when she came onto center stage she was one of the candidates for the Democratic nomination for presidency uh they were this is greeted with a great amount of interest and even Euphoria in India even even some Villages uh you know around the area that a mother actually belonged to uh that that had uh you know Idols of her in in Temple so uh obviously there was a great amount of interest and U Can imagine that one of our own would assume um had the possibility of assuming the most important position in the United States of America so that was the feeling behind it but as uh you know time passed that interest seems to have wained uh I was reading an interesting article in the Washington Post a recent one in which it said essentially that as her uh you know um presidential contest draws closer uh India seems to view her differently more muted uh in terms of her uh connection uh but uh also uh you know uncertain about her uh strategic strategic stand on India um I would look at it differently I would say that uh you know um uh she's a politician she understands that you know uh in America um um you know to be identified with the AF as as a person of African uh American origin is is far more important from a vot bank perspective than to be identified from an Indian origin perspective and I think that's perfectly understandable um of course she hasn't visited India that's one factor uh you know they was she spoke in today's debate about the fact that she T the world but that did not include a stopover in India so there's less familiarity from that perspective also uh but that you know she'd have a lot of people would vote for her simply because of what would appear to be a more sympathetic consideration of issues such as women and children uh issues of relating to immigration uh Health Care education uh so there would be a lot of people who would see her from that perspective and would be inclined to support her if they had the vote uh on the other hand Trump is a known commodity in India I was in the United States when we had this uh famous uh event called howy Modi when Prime Minister Modi and president Trump jointly addressed uh an audience of 50,000 indian-americans in Houston Texas uh and that event was the most televised event in India Trump was seen in every household in India and in 2020 Trump visited India and he was greeted he received a tumultous uh welcome uh there were 100,000 people in that stadium that one Stadium to listen to him speak and and I think he got a sort of welcome that he'd never had I mean possibly never had even in the United States so essentially uh Trump is known in India but also many of his policies uh and and because he's known his policies been seen uh as favorable uh you know pushing back on an assertive uh China uh keeping geopolitical balance um you know inclined to engage on a Free Trade Agreement uh and for a lot of Indians his recent statement that Indian students studying in America could be eligible for the green card came as a major boost but Trump has one more Indian origin trump card which is Usha chilu van the wife of Senator JD Vance has been in origin so he's he's got that also behind him but I would say that uh that you know uh irrespective of who wins uh you know uh I would say uh I mean in the sense that from the from an Indian perspective uh I think there would be U um sort of uh clearly um support for both candidates uh and and as far as governments are concerned governments agnostic but I think the government here can sit back and be quite content about the fact that whether it is uh Donald Trump or whether it is uh kamla Harris uh the uh relationship would continue to receive the sort of attention that previous presidencies have given it so we're pretty agnostic about how it is but certainly I think both would get a pretty good vote and it's similar margins that You' see in the United States I would say in general so we're just waiting for our colleagues to come back online but in the meantime I think we have capacity to keep going with the conversation um one of the questions that I think that we were to discuss as well is the extent to which um that AR respect countries might meet a second Trump Administration with some trepidation and uh in this case you know if we could go around and perhaps talk about what has your country's experience been with the first Trump Administration what are perhaps the main takeaways um Deborah do you want to start off with that please I mean I think um the Trump uh Administration from 2016 to 2020 just marked this uh collapse in us China relations that nobody saw coming um and was greatly almost traumatizing um so this uh you know Trump's reorientation to great power competition um sort of caught people by surprise and you know has persisted um to to this day as we can see um meanwhile there was also a uh bypassing of multilateral organizations like the WTO in favor of um tariffs and and forms of unilateral pressure that um again was not expected and quite um disappointing um um and then there were you know there was a bypassing of China on on other Global issues like um you know dealing with the North Korea issue all of a sudden you know Trump and Kim jongan were were uh meeting um without the consultations that would have happened in the past um so since you know so China had to deal with that um by sort of stepping up and and um and uh you know there was a uh suspension of funds for the wh that you know China then had to Pony up the money to um ensure that the the uh World Health Organization was was uh funded tied it over um and so uh we're still kind of dealing with the at the aftermath of everything that happened in in the Trump Administration and and you know then since then continued um by the Biden admin rtion um and we can see that um some of that you know the The Hangover is is um affecting Chinese domestic policy to this day so we can see for example from the recent um third plenum that um a lot of their the industrial policy is is almost um in response to all of these um external shocks that that sort of began um in uh during Trump's first term and I think Natalie picked up the question as we dropped off here picked up the moderating as we dropped off there so thank you mod thank you Natalie for picking up the moderation um uh look I I want to actually now open the floor um to to take some questions we've got a few questions coming in online uh so in the last kind of 15 or 20 minutes we've got L left I want to take some of those questions um I want to start here in Melbourne does anybody have a question that that asked um wait till you get the microphone raise your hand yes um just on the front here hi hello um I'm from Taiwan so I'll go straight with the question that's related to Taiwan I guess um so I want to know what's the perspective or the concern from your region or countries on the um impact of China Taiwan issue post um us election thank you and given the time we won't go around to everyone um let's maybe let's ask you hero I was expect expecting that you will ask me to answer this question uh yes uh Taiwan issue is one of the biggest concern if Mr Trump uh become a president again because uh his a recent remark at the Bloomberg interview I think it was last month he said that uh Taiwan should pay for its defense and also he said he it is not first time but he said that Taiwan had stolen the semiconductor industry from us so uh that highlighted the his perception of Taiwan that Taiwan is semiconductor industry comp semiconductor competitor and Taiwan is a kind of like security burden so in that under that perception I wonder if how much extent will Mr pres Mr Trump uh help or devote its security commitment to Taiwan in time of contingency to defend Taiwan and Japan is very very close geographically very close to Taiwan so if there were to be a war between China and Taiwan whether Japan will like or not Japan will maybe get entangled so uh that is one point but also uh shortly uh but the Mr Trump on the contrary to M Mr Trump's individual perception I'm sure that the Trump team will have more uh strategist uh like uh kind of Hulk Str H Strat like a former Secretary of State Pompeo or national security adviser Mr O'Brien and those people are make much may will make much of the geopolitical uh importance of Taiwan so I would like to see how the those advisers will persuade Mr Trump to commit secur to commit to the security or stability of T State thank you um harsh we have a question from India um and it's and it's on uh American Immigration policy um the question is um how do you think the US Pres presidential election will affect immigration policies given the huge number of immigrants in the US from around the world and and obviously something that an issue that comes up in the Indian context we've seen a large Indian Community in the US so um you know when it comes to India uh we have a couple of issues one of course is that uh you know we believe that you know there should be Roots opened up for legal migration in other words you have to have greater access uh for people who serve your interests uh whether you need professionals whether you need skilled workers whe you need people in certain sectors those people should be allowed to come in and obviously we have no issue with tighter controls on illegal immigration uh and and one of the issues that is very important for India is the issue of the green card because only seven there's a 7% cap on every country for green cards whereas 80 or 90% of those applying for green cards are from India I mean a very large percentage is from India so we want those caps to be removed uh so we want the more sympathetic consideration there uh and so I mean both candidates have spoken about this issue and I think both candidates in general obviously want to uh look at how to stem illegal immigration but I think not enough thought has been given as to how you can uh you know provide an impetus for legal migration because that is something that every country especially given uh the demographics would need to look at and would need to uh you know um a country like America which is based in migration will have to have a that facilitates legal migration uh here I think Trump's uh uh remark and this is not too long back maybe month or two ago when he said that Indian students but he didn't qualify it he said those Indians students studying in the United States uh really should have access to the Green Card uh whether he meant that those students who were doing postgrad or those students were an H1B Visa would get green cards was not clear but it came as a shot in the arm and it also tended to indicate that he had a sympathetic consideration when it came to um you know um concerns that that uh that reflect Indian uh interests so I would certainly say that both candidates really need to uh to provide more detail before we can on immigration on on legal migration before we can really uh take a call on who has a better alternative uh right now I think uh you know the options are not very good because both sides are looking at illegal immigration and not uh you know legal migration which we believe is very important so so here's where it is and I and I hope you know my friend my compatriot who was there um feels that this is an adequate answer for him but really there is a bit of lack of clarity on this as far as the candidates are concern um Deborah um there's a question from online I'm not quite sure where from uh but a question we received quite an interesting one I want to pose to you um what are the realistic prospects of us China cooperation on either Gaza or Ukraine uh given sensitivities about China's closer relations with Russia and with Israel's opponents in in the Middle East and and how might the I'll throw in how might the election affect um the potential for that cooperation um so on uh the relationship I think China still maintains that globally there's a there's a misperception of you know where where it stands in terms of Russia and Ukraine um it it you know wangi um in this last um round of meetings um was adamant that you know the the the idea that China is um supportive of Russia is uh absolutely false um and that um is sort of a a false narrative being being perpetrated that the fact that they sell you know components that can then be uh assembled um for military purposes with within Russia is is not a situation that is particular to China um so I think China itself is is optimistic in terms of the mediating role it can play um in terms of bringing uh uh uh uh Russia and Ukraine to the table as long as there is alignment um from the United States and so um in terms of you know between the two candidates it it appears that Trump is is probably the um more likely um uh you know if he were to win that that's a more likely scenario what was the other part so yeah no I think that that's great let's move on um Natalie um a question here asking about um China's approach to um Regional forums and um and particularly the global South so the question is China's established another potential Regional flame framework for developing countries such as the the belt and Road initiative um the bricks initiative and it's enhancing cooperation with Emerging Markets um what do you think I mean how is that how is that being viewed in asan and how might uh the the election affect or shape a potential us response to that yeah it's it's an interesting one I mean I looked at the sort of T of the question I talked about the us being left behind um I think I have to to bring us back to that desire in Southeast Asia for a lot of the rhetoric talking about the options of Southeast Asian countries to drop the binary use the idea of competition the idea that the United States is losing um The Only Winners that should be in Southeast Asia should be Southeast Asian States um and to that end what Southeast Asian States needs are a menu of options and as they see it right now China is providing options these may not be the best options across all domains but Southeast asan States particularly Cambodia where I was a couple of days ago talking to the ministry of National Defense who said to me no uncertain terms if China is providing options we will look at any Arrangement any multilateral for that is a contributor to positive security environment in the Indo Pacific um but it doesn't mean that the United States has been abandoned it doesn't mean that the United States has stopped becoming a partner of choice in certain domains to security and certain economic um economic areas so I think again we have to take holistic look at the way in which Southeast Asian states are looking at the options provided to them and then see whether or not which Administration whether it's the Harris or the Trump Administration are providing options that actually marry up with the needs of Southeast Asian States not just the needs that the Americans think that these countries need um so again you know something like Biden's initiative on Democracy that has a lot of Merit in terms of reinforcing certain democratic ideals in the country countries like Thailand where the youth really wants there to be robust fair and free elections amongst other things um but is that something that all Southeast Asian states are looking for is that a priority is that something that other states are providing those are the kinds of more granular more specific analyses I think that needs to be done but first and foremost is understanding that Southeast Asian States will pursue a multitude of options and that does necess does not necessarily look like a zero some game for the United States I'm going to um take a question from the floor here in Melbourne again uh at the back just wait for the microphone hi yeah thank you um I'm interested in the future of the orcus agreement with the potential um of a trump Victory I know in the past um he hasn't sort of had the most commitment to pre-arranged um multilateral agreements I know Malcolm turble spoken about that he had difficulty um negotiating with him on such matters so I know orcus is a lot bigger than sort of the deals that they were talking about but yeah I'm interested in um sort of whether um that would hold under Trump I mean I guess it's unpredictable but yeah just your best thoughts I think that's definitely a question for you Natalie yeah thanks for the question look I've given that a bit of thought about what the potential scenarios might be and given Trump rather business Acumen uh his his disposition um is there a potential scenario under which Australia would be asked to contribute even more financially to AUST so again you know is there a potential of looking at what other options might be a fallback plan if August becomes eldy or are there enough elements of buffer in the agreement where the the the the agreement would be would be would be insulated from those kinds of whims um I would hope that very deep institutionalized ties and dialogues that we have between our department of Def defense and the Pentagon would allow for enough communication to say that it's not in the United States interest to put this kind of pressure on one of its closest and most loyal Alliance Partners so that's what I would be relying on the strength of those people to people ties those institutional links track one track 1.5 track track two type dialogues and that would would insulate the relationship from perhaps Trump waking up one day and asking for a couple of couple of extra billion dollars but um yeah we'll see what happens um hero we have a question here um on the on the future of the Quad um uh given the the prospect of a um a return uh of uh president Trump um what do you think the future of the quadr electrial security dialogue will be and will will um Japan be happy um for the US taking the lead thank you very much uh in short I'm sure that quad Will Survive whichever candidate will become a president uh quad evolved during Trump Administration as I remember they have a first minial uh meeting uh under Trump and also uh Biden inherited a quad framework and further enhanced so geopolitical environment will Define the function and Prospect of uh quad and the geopolitical uh reality will not will never change so I think it will survive and also further strengthen but the one one challenge is that uh Russia so after all India wants to maintain uh good relation both with Russia and China but Japan and us and Australian relation with Russia have been deteriorating after Russian aggression to Ukraine and it will keep deteriorating so there is a so in that context uh quad is basically ER the area that quad can focus on would be limited not Global but maybe limited to The Domain related to mainly related to China so that is a challenge I think if uh China India and Japan us Australia's stance over the Russia will uh uh the gap between between between them will get wider and wider and maybe there will be a more limitation that quad framework could do but so far us and Japan Australia is aware are aware that Indians reality that they have to rely on Russian weapon Aries and also they don't want to alienate Russia to M uh to maintain uh good uh balance of power Vis China so so far it is okay thank you um ladies and gentlemen it's always the way with these things if you were just starting to get warm up warmed up uh and we could talk all night but unfortunately we are going to have to bring the conversation online and here in the uh Melbourne headquarters uh to a close um I think you'll agree with me it's been it's been a f fascinating little taste of uh perspectives from Asia on the election uh what we have to do now is to wait the await the result on the 7th of November uh and then we can do another one of these and we can talk about what does the result mean um for Asia um obvious uh often as is often the case these events finish with an advertisement um so the AG of society policy Institute which is Asia society's Think Tank um will be publishing a compendium on the US election and its impact on Asia policy uh and that'll be out online on the 2nd of October so keep a lookout um for that that'll have a a great selection of perspectives from the region on what uh the US election means for a range of countries in Asia so it now just remains for me to thank um all of our panelists um tonight um Deborah um in Hong Kong uh Natalie in Australia but actually in Malaysia at the moment um harsh in India and hiroyuki um in Japan so please join me here in Melbourne in giving the panelists an Applause and if you're online you can give them an Applause Wherever You Are