Why 0.008% of the U.S. population might determine the election | About That

BE 5,000 PEOPLE SWITCHED FROM BIDEEN TO TRUMP, ALL 16 OF THOSE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES WOULD HAVE GONE TO TRUMP AS WELL. THIS GETS CRAZIER. ARIZONA RAZOR THIN MARGINS. BIDEN WON BY 4,057 VOTES. IF 5,000 OF THOSE PEOPLE CHANGED THEIR MINDS TRUMP WOULD HAVE TAKEN ALL OF ARIZONA'S ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES. FINALLY, LOOK AT WISCONSIN. BIDEN WON BY ALMOST 21,00010,342 BIDEN SUPPORTERS CHANGED THEIR VOTES TO TRUMP, WISCONSIN'S TEN ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES WOULD HAVE GONE TO TRUMP AS WELL. SO WHAT'S THE POINT OF THIS MENTAL MAP? IF THOSE ROUGHLY 20,000 PEOPLE ACROSS THREE STATES CHANGE THEIR VOTES, HANDING TRUMP THOSE 37 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES, SUDDENLY, WE END UP IN THE ABSURD AND ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED OUTCOME OF A PERFECT TIE. 269-269. WHAT HAPPENS IN THE TIE? THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DECIDES WHO WINS. IT GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED, BUT ONE POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF THAT VOTE IS THAT DONALD TRUMP BECOMES PRESIDENT FOR A SECOND TERM, ALL THANKS TO 21,461 VOTERS IN A COUNTRY OF MORE THAN 330 MILLION PEOPLE. THAT, MY FRIENDS, IS SWING THE MATH. AND IT'S WHY DONALD TRUMP AND KAMALA HARRIS HAVE SPENT SO MUCH TIME IN THE SEVEN BATTLEGROUND STATES. >> HELLO, PENNSYLVANIA! HOW ARE WE DOING? [CHEERING] >> I THANK YOU NORTH CAROLINA. >> Andrew: THAT COULD DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION THIS NOVEMBER. SO LET'S COMPARE HOW POLLSTERS PREDICT WHICH STATES WILL BE KEY BATTLEGROUNDS. HERE'S A MAP OF THE U.S. MOST OF THESE STATES HAVE CLEAR ENOUGH VOTING PATTERNS THAT IT WOULD BE A SURPRISE IF THEY STEPPED WILDLY OUT OF LINE, LIKE WITH CALIFORNIA. THE JOKE IS THAT DEMOCRATS COULD RUN A CARDBOARD CUTOUT THERE AND STILL PROBABLY WIN. IN ALL, THEY LIKELY START WITH 226 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES IN THE BAG. THAT'S NOT FAR OFF FROM THE 270 NEEDED TO WIN. BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE, A HUGE SWATH THERY, THIS REPUBLICAN BELT IS SOLIDLY RED. THAT GIVES REPUBLICANS 219 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES THAT THEY CAN COUNT ON, WHICH LEAVES THESE SEVEN STATES WHERE THE MARGINS BETWEEN VICTORY AND DEFEAT ARE SO, SO THIN. IN 2020, LESS THAN 3 PERCENTAGE POINTS SEPARATED THE WINNER FROM THE LOSER IN EACH CASE. AND EACH OUTCOME WAS A MAJOR SHOW-STOPPING HEADLINE. >> JOE BIDEN, YOUR PROJECTED WINNER IN THE STATE OF ARIZONA. >> THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS JUST CALLED WISCONSIN FOR JOE BIDEN. >> JOE BIDEN HAS WON MICHIGAN AND GETS THE 16 ELECTORAL VOTES. >> Andrew: AND HERE'S WHERE EACH SIDE CAN GET REALLY STRATEGIC BECAUSE YOU DON'T NEED TO WIN ALL SEVEN OR EVEN THE MAJORITY OF SWING STATES IN ORDER TO WIN THE ELECTION. EITHER SIDE CAN WIN WITH AS FEW AS THREE OF THESE SWING STATES. IN TRUMP'S INDICATION, THERE'S ONLY ONE WAY TO DO THIS, IF HE WINS, NORTH CAROLINA, AND GEORGIA, THE THREE BIGGEST MOST VALUABLE SWING STATES. IF HE DOESN'T WIN EXACTLY THOSE THREE STATES, HE'LL NEED AT LEAST FOUR OF THE SWING STATES TO SNATCH BACK THE PRESIDENCY, OR ELSE HE'LL NEED TO GENERATE ANOTHER SURPRISE ELSEWHERE ON THE MAP. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE SEVERAL COMBINATIONS OF THREE-STATE VICTORIES THAT GIVE HARRIS THE WIN. BUT THAT'S JUST A MATHEMATICAL LOOK AT THE SWING STATES CAP THE VICTORY. HERE ARE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE PATHS FOR KAMALA HARRIS AND DONALD TRUMP. >> THE MOST STRAIGHTFORWARD WAY FOR HER TO GET ELECTED IS STILL TO CARRY PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN AND THE ONE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IN NEBRASKA THAT SOMETIMES VOTES FOR DEMOCRATS. THAT WOULD PUT HER AT EXACTLY AT 270. >> I THINK HER STRATEGY IS GOING TO BE TO TRY TO GAIN THE SUNBELT STATES AND STATES LIKE ARIZONA AND GEORGIA. >> FOR DONALD TRUMP, THEIR PATH IS TO HOLD, TRY TO FLIP GEORGIA OR ARIZONA, OR NEVADA, AND THEN RUN THE TABLE IN THE RUST BELT. >> AND RELY ON THOSE WHITE RURAL WORKING CLASS VOTERS IN MICHIGAN WISCONSIN, AND PENNSYLVANIA. >> Andrew: AND WORTH POINTING OUT, IF EITHER CANDIDATE WINS ANY FIVE OF THE SEVEN SWING STATES AND THEY HOLD ONTO EVERY OTHER STATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO THAT'S ENOUGH. THAT GETS EITHER ONE ACROSS THE 270 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE FINISH LINE. SO EASY, RIGHT? YOU JUST HAVE TO WIN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE OF THE SWING STATES. HOLD THE OTHER 20 OR SO STATES THAT EVERYONE JUST EXPECTS YOU TO HOLD ONTO, AND YOU'RE GOLDEN. WELL EACH SWING STATE IS DIFFERENT. DIFFERENT ISSUES, DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHY, DIFFERENT VOTERS. PENNSYLVANIA IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF THAT. IT'S WHERE HARRIS BEGAN A FIVE-DAY BATTLEGROUND TOUR TIM WALZ AS HER VICE PRESIDENT. >> GOOD EVENING, PHILADELPHIA. >> Andrew: JUST ABOUT EVERY MAJOR NEWS ORGANIZATION HAS PUT PENNSYLVANIA YEAH IN MUST -- PENNSYLVANIA IN MUST-WINTER STORY, THE MOST OF THE STATES. WORTH 19 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES. >> THERE'S GOING TO AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY IN PENNSYLVANIA. WHOEVER WINS PENNSYLVANIA. >> A BIG PART OF WHY TRUMP WON HE WON PENNSYLVANIA ALONG WITH WISCONSIN, THAT HAVE BEEN RELIABLY DEMOCRAT. KEEP IN MIND, HE'S ALSO FROM THERE. >> JOSEPH BIDEN, JR. WAS BUILT IN SCRANTON, SCRANTON, PENNSYLVANIA. >> BIDEN DREW OFTEN ON HIS PENNSYLVANIA UPBRINGING, BUT HARRIS DOESN'T HAVE THAT SAME EDGE. POLLING SUGGEST SHE'S WEAK WITH WORKING CLASS MEN. STRIKING THE RIGHT BALANCE, WINNING OVER VOTERS IN BIG CITIES AND RURAL AREAS ALIKE WILL BE KEY IN THE KEYSTONE STATE. >> IT'S AN UNUSUAL STATE BECAUSE IT'S SO LARGE THAT IT HAS VARIOUS REGIONS. >> SUSTAIN THAT SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING IN THE UNITED STATES AND REFLECTS A LOT OF THE SHARP DIVISIONS WE HAVE. >> Andrew: IN WISCONSIN, ONCE UPON A TIME, THIS WAS SHAPING UP TO BE A BATTLE FOR FREE AND ASTILL MIGHT BE. ROBERT F. KENNEDY, JR. HAD FOUGHT TO GET HIS NAME ON THE BALLOT IN THIS STATE AND HE SUCCEEDED. THE PROBLEM IS, HE'S SINCE THROWN HIS SUPPORT BEHIND DONALD TRUMP. THIS IS ONE STATE WHERE HE NOW CAN'T SEEM TO GET HIS NAME OFF THE BALLOT, WHICH COULD BE CONFUSE THES. MICHIGAN AND NORTH CAROLINA, HE HAS MANAGED TO PULL OUT. SPEAKING OF NORTH CAROLINA, IT'S THE ONLY SWING STATE THIS TIME AROUND THAT TRUMP ACTUALLY WON IN 2020. SO IT'S A KEYHOLE. >> NORTH CAROLINA IS THE ONE THAT GETS AWAY FROM DEMOCRATS EVERY FOUR YEARS. ZROOU BUT THE MARGIN OF VICTORY LAST TIME AROUND WAS ONLY ABOUT ONE PERCENTAGE POINT, AND DEMOCRATS DO HOPE THIS WILL BE THE GEORGIA OF 2024, MEANING A STATE THAT HAS A DECADES-LONG, ALMOST UNINTERRUPTED REPUBLICAN HISTORY, BUT THAT COULD BE A DRAMATIC AND CONSEQUENTIAL FLIP IF OTHER SWING STATES GO TRUMP'S WAY. >> IF WE WIN THE STATE OF NEVADA IT'S OVER FOR THEM. >> Andrew: NEVADA HAD A SLUGGISH POST-COVID RECOVERY, AND HAS AMONG THE WORST UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN THE COUNTRY. MICHIGAN HAS THE COUNTRY'S LARGEST PROPORTION OF ARAB-AMERICANS. A DEMGRAPHIC WHOSE SUPPORT OF BIDEN TOOK A HIT THE U.S. STOOD FASTLY BY ITS ALLY ISRAEL IN THE ONGOING WAR IN GAZAA. IN GEORGIA, BLACK VOTERS MAKE UP A THIRD OF THE VOTING POPULATION EASILY THE BIGGEST VOTING BLOC IN THE UNITED STATES. >> BLACK VOTERS ARE AMONG THE MOST LOYAL AND DEMOCRATIC VOTERS IN AMERICAN POLITICS. A LOT OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF ATLANTA HAS BEEN AMONGST BLACK VOTERS. >> Andrew: AND ARIZONA, THE GRAND CANYON STATE, TRUMP HAS A BIG ADVANTAGE HERE. >> ARIZONA IS A BORDER STATE, WHICH MEANS IT WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE RENUMERATION FIRSTHAND. >> TRUMP HAS REPEATEDLY ATTACKED HARRIS OVER THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION CRISIS, AND HE'S VOWED TO CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY. ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO A VERY EKS ELECTIC RANGE OF ISSUES, THAT EACH PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL WILL TRY TO MASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO MONTHS. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THEM IS THAT THEY DON'T NEED TO FIGURE IT ALL OUT. THEYED THE RIGHT HANDFUL OF VOTERS IN THE RIGHT STATES AT THE RIGHT TIME.