4 Overvalued RBs In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

Intro I'm Nick whan from Roa wire in this video I'm going to tell you about four of the most overrated running backs in fantasy football this season let's jump right into it Aaron Jones of the Aaron Jones Minnesota Vikings look I love Aaron Jones I'm sitting here in Wisconsin filming this video I can confirm that not a single person in the state was happy to see Aaron Jones go especially to the Minnesota Vikings but there's considerable downside here for a running back you still have to take in the fifth round in a lot of drafts Jones will turn 30 in December he's going from what should be one of the best offens in the NFL and Green Bay to what I view as a significant downgrade in Minnesota a team now quarterbacked for the foreseeable future by Sam darnold this likely will not be a high-scoring offense we may not see a ton of positive game scripts for Minnesota Vikings also have sneakily one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL this season they're currently slight favorites over the Giants in week one after that though they're underdogs in seven of their next eight games could be a long year for Minnesota by far though the biggest red flag when it comes to Aaron Jones it's the injury history lower body injuries soft tissue injuries those don't tend to magically reverse when a a running back changes teams and turns 30 years old even on a per game basis last season Jones finished as the RB 26 huge chunk of his value came late in the year a couple big playoff games against San Francisco and Dallas which of course don't count for Fantasy that's at a time when Green Bay's passing game was really clicking things were opening up for Aaron Jones I'm not saying he doesn't have any left in the tank I think he still has another good year or two in him but I'm just not optimistic about this situation in Minnesota yes he'll be the clear starter but Tai Chandler still a factor there bottom line is if you're buying in on Aaron Jones it really requires some optimism on the injury front and that's just not something I'm willing to do at this stage of his career in Minnesota the upside calculation just isn't there for me if I'm taking a running back in that range I'm leaning more towards safety looking at somebody like David Montgomery and Detroit if you're enjoying this video and honestly even if you're not please hit that like button please subscribe to the roadwire YouTube Channel I know we always say it but really does help us out a ton next running back on our list Austin Ekeler Austin Eckler put it this way I've done a ton of beste ball drafts I've done a bunch of redrafts I do not have a single share of Austin Eckler this season and ultimately I'm okay with that you're not paying nearly the same price as you were for Eckler in years past of course but that's for good reason his overall numbers took a massive dip last season his efficiency yards after contact Miss tackle rate all those have been on the decline now for a couple of years and perhaps most damningly Austin Eckler did not pass the eye test last season if you watched any Chargers football Eckler did not look like the same guy I don't know how that you know magically changes course year over-ear as he gets a year older Landing in Washington it does present Eckler with some opportunity it's not the worst landing spot but he's now in a defined time share with Brian Robinson and one that he could end up on the short end of as the season goes along Robinson is not exactly Christian mcaffry not saying that but he shouldn't be going behind Austin Eckler which is still the case in a bunch of drafts now much like Antonio Gibson last season Eckler will have his moments no question there will be some weeks where he puts up numbers in PPR leagues four or five catches maybe a touchdown but his best days to me are are firmly in the rearview and this is a Washington offense that is still somewhat of a mystery we got a new head coach we got a rookie quarterback a new coordinator we're not quite sure what this is going to look like what the breakdown is going to be between Eckler and Brian Robinson I will say the acquisition cost is now low enough for Eckler that taking a flyer on him it's probably not going to kill you but I'd rather get my hands on a firm starter like somebody like Devon single Terry at that point in the draft or perhaps chase some more upside with a younger back like Chase brown or Taj Spears I I just don't really get the appeal with Austin Eckler best case scenario is maybe you get a return on your investment but it's hard for me to see him dramatically exceeding his ADP Tony Pollard next on the list Tony Pard of the Tennessee Titans this time last year could not have been more fired up about Tony Pard everything was falling into place he's finally the lead back in Dallas did not go like we expected Pard regressed in just about every key metric last season and that was for the number one scoring offense in the NFL Dallas led the league in Red Zone possessions last season with 71 Pard at the sixth most carries inside the 10 yard line last season converted only five of those into touchdowns finished the year with six total touchdowns overall while Dallas does have its own question marks it's hard to argue that Pard is not in a significantly worse situation now with the Tennessee Titans new coaching staff new full-time starter at quarterback and will Levis who brings a ton of variance to this offense Titans by the way failed to reach 300 yards of total offense and have Levis of starts last season this was one of the worst offensive lines in football in 2023 and yeah they've taken some steps to address that but I remain skeptical I mean what's the best case here is that this is maybe the 22nd 23rd best offensive line in the NFL worst of all though Tony Pard is now back in a time share with a similar but younger player in Taj Spears Tennessee for their part they're insisting that you know both of these guys will be big factors they're going to ride the hot hand week to week I mean that's all well and good if the hot hand is Tony Pard but what if Taj Spears comes out of the gates looking like the better back I mean even as the backup to Derrick Henry last season Spears threw more targets than Tony Pard he's certainly the more explosive of the two at this point and he's going two plus rounds later than Tony Pard in CBS leagues right now perhaps the change of scenary and the return to a time share maybe that rejuvenates Tony Pard I'm open to that but there are just too many risk factors at play here at a very basic level it feels like a 50-50 proposition between Spears and Pard and of course there's the chance that it is just a true time share if I'm chancing it on one of the Tennessee backs I'd rather limit my investment take Spears after pick 100 and hope that he ends up being the guy De'Von Achane fourth and final running back on our list Devon Anan of the Miami Dolphins it would not be an overvalued running back list without mentioning Anan and this what hurts because hn is one of the most electrifying players in the NFL probably the most electrifying running back in the league and it's fun as he may be though is he really worth drafting as your rb1 at the end of round two maybe even higher maybe in a best case scenario you know H is a top five fantasy running back behind some monster weeks you know he gave us a preview of that upside last season no question about it but this is a dolphins offense that has plenty of options they don't need to lean on Devon hent you got two Elite wide receivers and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadd you have two other capable running backs and Raheem moer you know bring in a rookie and Jaylen Wright in the fourth round he should see plenty of work hn is the home run hitter he's the upside play but we're still not exactly sure what that workload is going to look like week to week I mean Raheem Ard ran for 18 touchdowns last season now I would bet my mortgage that he's not going to do that again but as long as he's healthy he's going to be a significant factor in this offense Jaylen Wright for his part he's looked great in the preseason he's still the clear number three to me but the Dolphins are going to get him looks much like they did Devon Anan last season and then you have the durability component when it comes to aan he's a smaller back he's missed essentially six games last season with his frame health is always going to be a concern and I expect the Dolphins to be on the Forefront here they're going to keep a close eye on his workload they're going to make sure he's not overextended as much as possible which is great for hn long term it's great in real life might not be ideal for Fantasy in terms of what the that workload looks like week to week moster right they'll both be in the mix I don't think we're going to see a ton of games where hn is a true Workhorse back seeing 20 plus touches now the argument against all that is hey maybe he doesn't need 20 touches a game to be effective and look some weeks that is absolutely true Anan is the biggest game breaker at the position if he rips off a 72 yard touchdown and ends up carrying the ball nine times total you're okay with that you got your value off that one big play but let's be real here he's not going to average 7.8 yards per attempt again there's virtually no historical precedent for that especially doing that two years in a row teams are going to be better prepared to slow him down as we began to see toward the end of last season when Anan averaged under four yards per attempt in three of his final five games bottom line when it comes to Anan I love the player I don't think he'll be a true bust injuries aside but to me he just doesn't profile as the type of back I want to lock down in round two too much injury risk too much volatility week to week just enough competition in that back field to scare me away at Cost all right those are our four overvalued running backs for 2024 again please like subscribe to the Roa wire YouTube channel and go take a peek behind Roa wire's pay wall for free go to rotowire.com trry just put in your email and you're good no credit card no obligation to cancel none of that very simple rotowire.com try