Free Best Bets and Expert Sports Picks | WagerTalk Today | UFC & College Football Picks | 9/4/24

Introduction [Music] everybody to wager talk today the best daily sports betting show on the planet and we have a ton of actionable information coming your way Ralph Michaels will be guest number one he's going to look at the Missouri Buffalo college football game he has a first half bet for us on that game he's also going to take apart Carolina and New Orleans full disclosure I love his pick in this game he has a chart as well how to bet NFL week one which is right in front of us and obviously an important chart Kyle Anthony is going to join us we're going to throw some UFC in and guys we're GNA keep with UFC all throughout football Kyle will be on on a regular basis it's a great sport to bet tons of value and Kyle is a phenomenal better in this sport he's going to look at sha Bradley Brady against Gilbert Burns and Ryan span against OSP that's what we're GNA call him art to Caesar at the end of the show book maker from the Westgate we're going to go through where the money is coming in a week two college football as well as week one NFL Teddy's got his big game breakdown which we'll talk about in a second and starting today the daily presidential address is back we get a 100 likes I'm going to delve deep into a single NFL game today will be Dallas against Cleveland one of my favorite games of the weekend Teddy covers my co-host what is your big game breakdown big game breakdown we're going to talk college football Arkansas against Oklahoma State an SEC Big 12 Showdown and of course and what better is learned we're going to respond to a viewer question from yesterday if you have questions comments put them below we take a look at them and in this instance we're gonna respond to a question that we got on you from yesterday's show yeah and it's a great question guys so stay with us that won't be uh that that'll be right after the Ral Michael segment Teddy I thought my opening was nine8 eight out of 10 what do you think yeah you nailed it again Lawrence so what are we doing the show we started doing the show you and I this version of this show in 2020 and this is the first time I think you've done two good openers in a row so you're getting there well you know what I'm back on the bike in the morning so I'm all pumped up I got tons of energy shout out to everybody who watched the NFL presidential address yesterday 5500 of you so far already I got a lot of great comments but a lot of people said why didn't you mention Green Bay and uh Philadelphia was in Brazil I just forgot I know it's in Brazil but it's not a game I'm betting so I didn't dive deep into the game in the first place Total screw up just forgot move on Teddy covers let's bring Ralph Michaels on Ralph man we are here brother it's week one NFL week two college football I'm pumped how are you man how are you doing doing great impress you talked about that chart we're gonna end my segment with how about this there's an 84.2% System since 20 14 we'll finish the segment with that I buried the lead Teddy I've now rated my opening a s out of 10 well let's start with Missouri against Buffalo college football uh this coming weekend uh Missouri minus 20 and a half in the first half wow uh where are we going in this Ralph: CFB Week 2 - Missouri vs Buffalo one well guys this is an actual client release I already posted this there were a couple 20 and a half out there I'm okay with laying the 21 as well but Missouri is in a situation that I love I'm going to still one of maros phrases if you look at the box score and you're a Missouri fan you're gonna say uh Hey folks uh Missouri 151 to nothing they're fat and Sassy but it's actually just the opposite they are not happy at all you look at Eli drinkwitz what he said he said it starts with fundamentals route running timing the quarterback setting his feet when he makes his throws the receivers did not P perform well drifting after he throws with the quarterback wide receivers have got to run their routes to the correct depth we've got to explode out of the box and quarterbacks have to make the throw he actually went into many more rants about his team that he was not happy that makes me excited backing them early in this game when I look at teams off a shutout win in week number one and they're at home again at week number two guess what those teams have covered 69% against the spread and if that team is off a shut out win at home and their opposition is off a home win as well that changes to 86% against the spread you look at Ball State they had a nice easy win last week against n fcso they have a very winnable game last week this is Pete lambo's second game as the buffalo head coach when you look at what LMBO did at Ball State he was only a dog four times of 21 or more points the average score in those games in the first half 40.4 to 4.7 in the second half he only got outscored by 0.2 points per game the opposition scored 11.2 his team scored 11 so he's been a very second half oriented player where he keeps playing as a big dog that's why I went first half in this stage I look at the Buffalo defense they're a 4-25 defense they're a very small defense they're made to cover the other Mac offenses this Missouri o line averaging over 35 yards per play and oh yeah by the way while Buffalo did win handling they were up 16 nothing in the first half they ended up beating Lafayette by a score of 30-13 they still allowed a team at home and FCS opponent Lafayette to complete 69% of their passes add it up color me the Missouri Tigers I do believe that logo there's the right logo I think that logo we had on first was thewest Missi bear thank you so I said to Teddy sorry I said to Teddy in the middle of that segment I'm like I'm sure that's the wrong mour Miz logo Teddy didn't move so he was probably so shook up at the moment but yes D got the right logo what I'm impressed I didn't think it was anything that we could fix or do anything about and the fact they were able to fix that behind the scenes as quickly as they did more credit to the staff so many guys who work so hard behind the scenes you see us on camera you don't see a lot of the other guys make no mist about it they're working their butts off their tails off every day to make sure that the graphics are good and the show comes out properly Ralph when it comes and one more one more thing about that the funny thing is that that that was the uh Southwest Missouri State Bears logo the first show yeah that's where CJ aabana used to be the quarterback and he actually played against Missouri a couple years ago at Southwest Missouri he ran for 97 yards so while he only rushed for 19 yards and five attempts in his first game he didn't have to run that is another concern when you have a merry mobile quarterback against the number two and three defenses later in the game that a mobile quarter rack can uh break out and lead to a couple late scores so just real quick Ralph I want to ask you about the Buffalo we SP a lot of time with Missouri on that and I want to ask you about the Bulls because this is a program that was on the upswing under Lance Leupold you know they had three consecutive strong Seasons 18 19 20 how far has this program Fallen then is Buffalo the type of team we might want to be betting against on a week in week out basis you know I I don't have LMBO as an a coach I don't have limble as a d or an e coach so you know we have to give him some time but I I will say this Teddy I think the downfall of Buffalo and to see what Leupold does says more for how good of a coach Leopold is and what Buffalo was left with having trying to replace him so again you have to give a new coach a fair period of of time I think when he looks ahead as the Buffalo Bulls head coach you have a win you have a winner ready you have a very winnable game against UMass that you're hosting next week if you don't get out to an early close game here I think it's uh throw throw in the towel and and just worry about getting the win next week to get to two and one well Michaels joining us uh guys if you like what you're hearing take a second out of your day and hit that thumbs up button please we need to get to a hundred likes uh every single show so uh greatly appreciate it if you do and also make sure to subscribe to our channel 167,000 of you already subscribed it takes a second to do that as well well we've got a division matchup in week one a few of them obviously but we're going to talk about the Carolina Panthers against the New Orleans Saints really not much as uh not much as expected out of Carolina coming into the season but let's be honest here Derek Carr and that crappy coach uh for the New Orleans Saints Dennis Allen I I've gone blank um their careers are on the line uh New Orleans got to get out fast and they've got to have a good start to this year uh where are you Ralph: NFL Week 1 Panthers vs Saints going in this game well it is a tough one you you know you look at Carol and you say oh my God this is the worst offense there is and you know you look at what Young did and can they turn it around they were winless on the road last year you know they I think they did go three and three ATS against their division but I will say this you know while I am not a a Dave Canales fan as far as the head coach the guy does know how to coach up QBs you know you look at what he did to Baker Mayfield you look at what did he did to Gino Smith you can only think that's a positive impact on Bryce young then you look what the Panthers did to improve that offense that was so horrible yes they still have a bad o line and they're going to clearly have to play better but you know you bring in wide receivers Deontay Johnson and you draft Leed in the second round that gives you more weapons on the outside that makes his Mobility even more impressive if you can spread the field a little bit you talked about Dennis Allen pre Del Dennis Allen if you look at every game he has coached in the NFL as a head coach he has gone 2742 and one against the spread that is 39.1% when Dennis Allen is a favorite he's gone eight and 15 ATS that is 35% and when he's in a game with the lines between the four and a halfs so from a four and a half Point favor to a four and a half Point dog against a closely matched opponent he is only 33 .2% against the spread and how does he PR prepare his teams if you look at the first four games of the season with him as a head coach they are one in 10 ATS as a favorite or a dog to plus three and in those games he failed the cover they were by 7.8 points per game as a favor he lost 10 of his 24 games outright he got upset 10 out of 24 games as a favorite and oh yeah couple things we're going to talk about with the charts let's mention them now let's not forget that division teams a division dog in week one 70.6% against the spread a division dog excuse me a a division dog 70.6% and a division dog of two or more even higher than that and if a team is playing a division info in week one and they have double revenge and they're a dog of three or more 22 and 17 against the spread 76% yes it's ugly to take these week one dogs I think there's value with the Carolina Panthers so Carolina lost 11 of their 11 of their 15 losses last year came by a touchdown or more they had the worst offense in the league New Orleans when we're going to make we're going to complain about the same saints were not going to complain about their defense much their offense that defense on paper is solid um what makes you think that a new head coach and a new offense and a quarterback that couldn't do anything last year and a good defense that they're facing is suddenly primed to show dramatic Improvement in game one against a quality defense wouldn't you prefer Carolina and against a bad D than a good one yeah but again you know you look at and and to your point Teddy I think New Orleans has been a top 10 defense for four straight years so that's impressive doing it one year is great doing it back to back but I just see the Saints keep getting older not really improving not bringing any people into the fold so with Carolina getting better and we know as a season progresses a team can just throw in the towel and just completely have a season go down the toilet in this case there's a reset with the new coach there's a reset with a coach that understands as head coach and and a quarterback friendly head coach so you know it's always a gamble in the NFL week one but again we're going to show in a minute that these you know these division dogs are there for a reason they're familiar they got beat twice last year they get to uh they don't have any pressure on them where PR did make a good point the Saints actually have pressure on both Carr and the head coach so uh I still think there is value again they're a division dog of four for a reason but I do like him here speaking of division dogs Ralph Michaels uh you've got a chart for us that includes that type of information for week one I hand the mic over to you my friend I will say this guys this is one chart I have six of these charts for beted on it today in the NFL and college football make sure to check that out later today but let's simply look at week one do I bet favorites or do I bet dogs and some of this information over the last few weeks as I was breaking down some games I might have mentioned it but since week one is here I want it fresh in everyone's mind so if you say to yourself week one is it better to bet dogs or better to bet favorites let's take a look at the top line of this Ralph: CHART - NFL Favs and Dogs in Week 1 chart and it's pretty easy to see since 2014 if you basically bet every NFL week one dog you have won 56.4% now look at the next Division division dogs and non-division non-division dogs basically 5050 so let's say you you have a non-division favor no problems playing that but division dogs 70.6% division home dogs 77.8% and division home dogs of plus one and a half or more 16 and three against the spread since 2014 84.2% there is one team that applies to that and that is the Colts plus the points versus the Texans but take a look at the very bottom line how unusual is this since 2014 game one division home dogs of one and a half or more 84% non-division home dogs of one and a half or more 36.1% the complete opposite depending on looking at division foes or non-division foes and Ralph do you have a list of all the division games this weekend or do you want me to run through it real quick uh the division home dogs again only the Colts the division away dogs uh that fit into that category the Jets versus San Fran Washington versus Tampa Jacksonville versus uh excuse me those are the away dogs for non-playoff teams I I misspoke there I do not have the division dogs down here Teddy my apologies on that I have a different chart for f on it uh I did the pre completely dis spazzed there and was reading wrong information that's the so just real quick the division the division dogs this week include Carolina at New Orleans we've got H uh Indie against Houston the Raiders are division dogs against the Chargers I believe those are the only three for week one thank you teddy Ralph Michaels what do you got to promote it's football guys I'm excited I'm just going to say this there's absolutely no reason not to take advantage of the three-day for $49 special doesn't matter if you want me or anyone on the site you know you can sign up now and one thing I want to remind people when you sign up for a three-day all access you can put in that you want your package to start on Saturday or Friday where as soon as we load plays earlier in the week even if you are getting a three-day package you'll start getting those plays immediately so that's something you want to make sure you do as you're looking at those three-day all accesses sign up early in the week and as we all release our plays you'll get an email update with those releases as soon as they happen Ralph Michaels a well said great promotion guys make sure to take advantage of that also again guys in the chat room Joseph appreciate the kind words of about my uh NFL presidential address so hard to do every game in 10 What Bettors Learned minutes but a lot of fun nevertheless Teddy lots of shows still to come Kyle Anthony art to Caesar I'm G to do a deep dive into the Dallas Cleveland matchup and you my friend have a big game breakdown but first what did betters learn sure we got a question uh yesterday in the comments that I thought was worth discussing for today Corp lv8 uh left us the question and I'm just going to paraphrase here excuse me he said have you seen lines sharper since rapid growth of legalized gambling other words is it harder to find an edge to today compared to you know five 10 15 years ago and my my answer to that question press is yes and no as always there's two sides to the equation yeah on the one hand look lines move quicker in the modern Marketplace information comes out boom if you're not there you missed the number l certainly the markets take Advanced metrics into account better now than they did 10 20 years ago they cut limits quicker now than they did 10 20 years ago and there's lots of competition in the marketplace to get these numbers so all that's tougher on the other hand the sharp money the wise guy money they tend to look at the same thing stats and more stats and stat-based capping rules the markets so if you can find stats that lie you can make money I think you can make money consistently in the 2024 Marketplace that's the number one thing I look for lying stats and then of course we start talking about spots but that's a whole another discussion but pre let me ask you I said yes or no when it comes to sharper you know is is the market as a whole sharper now that it was and this an argument I've heard every year since I've been in Vegas so they would say yeah the market sharper now it does get sharper over time but it doesn't mean it's not beatable what do you think Lawrence well whether it's beatable or not I guess is somewhat irrelevant to the question the concept is it's sharper than it was in relation to it being sharp Teddy the answer is yes and no as well and my thoughts there really quickly for instance and this is a great question for AR de Caesar which we should ask when he comes on later in the show is I don't think the lines are any sharper on the big matchups you know for instance the Rams vers Detroit this you know prime time Sunday night tomorrow night Casey Baltimore I don't think the lines are any sharper than they were 30 years ago I think where the lines have become sharper and I wouldn't say verse 10 years ago I would say verse 30 years ago is on the Kell State North ridges and the pacifics in college basketball you know on the uh on on the the the lower tiered you know uh college football uh teams the games that were never on TV 20 30 years ago that never garnered a ton of public action I think the lines are sharper on those games now than they were but from a prime time perspective I don't think they're any sharper today than they ever were and from a legalizing betting perspective I don't think that really made any had anything to do with anything in the sense that Wise Guys have been betting before legalized betting wise guys are betting after legalized betting all the big money that is coming in and all the sharp action that is coming in has no relevance to legalized betting it is the general public that has jumped on board in legal since legalized betting came about they're parlaying all day long they're changing the lines all day long the books don't care about them anyway uh as far as they're not worried about losing to them so yeah it's a yes and no but it is a kick ass question Teddy anything to quickly add oh my God read that Teddy wrote you are more boring than Marco right now boom you insulted two people in one go Kyle freaking Anthony what up brother solid line though that's a solid line I I can appreciate that anything making fun of PR is always going to be good yeah well Kyle make F of and Marco with the same little uh you know seven words right two birds one stone there two birds one stone yeah Marco text let get yeah Teddy I will introduce Kyle you relax I'm GNA try not to be so boring so Kyle good we're gonna keep you going all the way through NFL and college football but we're going to do these segments fast with no follow-ups we're going from one to the next that is the way it's going to be and we say that with love sha Brady versus Gilbert Burns where are you going in this matchup all right so in this spot here Kyle: UFC Vegas 97 - Sean Brady vs Gilbert Burns we've got in the main event we've got uh Sean Brady here he's around minus 190 on the comeback here you've got Gilbert Burns he's plus 160 165 now you got Brady here good wrestling good grappling on the other side you've got um uh Burns who really is you know UFC veteran does have some grappling and some power now money has consistently come in on Brady in this spot here but to be honest you know there are some holes in his game he's going to be looking for wrestling he's going to be looking for that control time but the big red flag for me is a recent fight that he had against balal Muhammad now an Noble Hall is the current champion but this guy is a lay and prey decision machine uh you know out of his 19 UFC fights he's 153 and one with 14 going to the decision and you look at that he was able to finish Shawn Brady on the feet with boxing moving forward and a big issue for Brady is the fact he doesn't have a plan B there is no plan B for him if he can't get the takedowns he struggles on the feet and that's going to cause problems and now you have somebody like Sean um like Gilbert Burns who is gonna probably present some of the same problems that he had against against blah Muhammad and the big thing here is that you know a lot of people can't take burns down burns out of 15 UFC fights he's only been taken down four times and out of that span it was chamaya who took him down twice in 2022 and Damian Maia took him down twice in 20 20 besides for that he is on the feet he's standing I think that the Striking is going to be there for burns I think that he's going to have the better striking the overall power and also you got add in that there has been some iffy cardio from uh Brady when you look at it he really was tailing off in the second round that's not good in a main event five rounder I think the five round experience also does help Burns here so I like Burns here I like the plus money and I think it's a good spot for him to get the job done live Underdog in the main event UFC Saturday night right here in Las Vegas Kyle Anthony says take Burns it's a big app plus price let's talk about one fight on the undercard Ryan span versus alance S prio maybe uh sano's a pretty big dog in this one uh I'm seeing Span in the minus 330 minus 340 range total in this fight one and a half juice to the under the markets think it's going to end pretty quickly break it down for me S prio Kyle: UFC Vegas 97 - Ryan Spann vs Ovince Saint Preux versus span undercard on Saturday yeah so in this spot here you got Ryan span big favorite minus 350 roughly on the other side you got OSP we'll use that PR uh OSP who is at the plus 275 Mark and when you look at this spot here you know you've got two fighters that are big light heavyweights that are finishers that are untrustworthy and that alone is already going to provide variance to the highest degree and you've got a wide line here in this spot and you look at it here I think the big thing style-wise is that you know span is a good Hammer he's a terrible nail I mean this guy when things are going well he'll move forward he'll Land good shots you know get some takedown submission hunting all those things work but if it doesn't go well I mean the guy really starts to collapse makes terrible decision and that's one thing that you see consistently through his career is his fight IQ is I mean it's just not good it's very low level um you know he makes mistakes consistently you know he he'll he'll be in a dominant position and all of a sudden he's vulnerable making mistakes and I think that's a spot where I think that OSP can capitalize on in certain spots but you also add in the fact that span is a BigTime front runner I mean big- time front runner we looking at it out of his 14 UFC fights nine of them have ended in the first round and then he's also five and four over that fan not the greatest and you also got to add in the fact that he's on an 0 and3 run in the UFC got finished twice I think those are lot of red flags you're were talking about a guy that's minus 350 and then also you got to look at it as that OSP has had some issues you know he's definitely you know not looked good in certain spots but he is coming off the best performance of his career against Kendy is a chiu where he landed 143 significant strikes that is that Eclipse by far the most strikes he's landed in his career I don't know if he had his weedies or sipping on some secret juice or something but this guy all of a sudden has looked good I think OSB is going to have better striking I think he's going to have the better power and as well spans power a little overstated out of his 21 wins only six Knockouts so it's not like he's out there blasting people I think this is a recipe for you know bad things for span overall especially at this price and again both these guys not trustworthy but OSP is not the minus 350 favorite here I like to plus money on him to get the job done boom mike drop Kyle Anthony every want two massive dogs Burns plus 165 oh Vince plus 275 uh guys the reason we're going to keep uh UFC going throughout football season is Kyle literally Reigns money down on us he's number one in Roi in all sports at wager talk he has won 22 of the last 27 events in in MMA up 83 units in MMA this calendar year an absolute Ving machine Kyle in 20 seconds what do you got to promote hey hey last week we ended up uh cashing on here or two weeks ago plus 210 plus 245 and a plus 500 sprinkle so let's uh let's also not forget that but we do have some plays up for this weekend 4% is up right now I'm 15 and six on the year on those as well as I already have a 5% up for the following week which is a big card UFC 306 have a 5% there on a 10 and0 run on the 5% so again it doesn't matter if it's high level high level or low LEL even the one that we cashed two weeks ago was a very level card we took uh seven units in profit so there's always opportunity to make some money in MMA I don't know what that was for Kyle Anthony everyone Teddy covers my computer's running out of battery I got to run and get a charger it's time for your big game breakdown big game breakdown let's talk SEC versus Big 12 on Saturday National TV affair on ABC 11:00 a.m. local start that's noon Pacific 9:00 am I'm sorry noon on the East Coast 9:00 am here in Teddy: BGB Oklahoma State vs Arkansas Las Vegas and on the west coast of course that would be Oklahoma State and Arkansas the early week money has flown for the Hogs has shown for the Hogs there were nine n and a half at the open we're looking at seven and half eight as we talk about this midweek and the total has been bet up so we've seen some Arkansas money we've seen some over money beautiful day in Still Water 84 degrees and sunny outside and I agree with both of these line moves let's talk about Arkansas for a minute this is a team that was 4-8 last year under Sam Pitman just one and five in games decided by a touchdown or less they were good road dogs though despite their struggles three and0 against spr as Road dog in fact nine and three for Sam Pitman in this road dog role since arriving uh as the Arkansas head coach 74 is a home dog I mean we like kit Pitman catching points we like him a lot this is the thing that really stands out when you look at Arkansas 17 games away from home over the last three years only two losses by more than a touchdown in those 17 games away from home over a threeyear span none last year now Oklahoma state they're one of the favorites in the Big 12 whereas Arkansas is an afterthought in the SEC this season Mike gundy's been there for what 20 years now he's been a good coach and he's been really strong as terms of straight up records on they're 19-2 straight up on this field since 2021 although both losses did come as favorites South Alabama and West Virginia and of course we've got two teams off disperate performances last week Arkansas well they had 10 possessions they scored touchdowns on all 10 of their possessions against Arkansas Pine Bluff it wasn't that easy uh for Oklahoma State against South Dakota state but it's worth noting when you're talking about two teams that both played FCS opponents how good were the FCS teams well South Dakota state would probably been a 40-point favorite or 35 40o favorite against Arkansas Pine Bluff so the fact that Arkansas scored 10 TDS on 10 possessions take it with a grain of thought so when we look at this Cowboys team they return a whole lot of talent you know in terms of returning starters basically everyone back from a team that won 10 games last year they were loaded but I've got two concerns about Oklahoma State in this ball game first and foremost I worry about Sam pitman's track record and Arkansas's track record as a road dog they've been really good and I'm not convinced that I'm gonna step in front of that second the quotes from gundi after last week's game talk about facing Arkansas this week they only average 3.8 yards per carry against that Squad you know um they give up big plays on defense in that ball game you know four long pass plays South Corda State here's gundy's quote when you play a team in the SEC you're going to play girth we need to make good strides between last week and this week to be able to block a front that is better than we saw last week from a technique standpoint the team we just played was excellent they just don't have as much size as what we'll face on Saturday I think Arkansas is going to give Oklahoma State some problems on the defensive front I believe in pitman's track record I'll take my chances with the Razer backs plus the points on Saturday and remember take advantage of that three-day all access just 49 bucks you get every play every day choose as many handicappers as you like and pick your start date whatever you want that three-day all access available for all the cappers at wagertalk.com just 49 bucks great opportunity to get on board this weekend there's your big game breakdown back to you Mr Art Dice Talks Money Moves in MLB, NFL and College Football PR Teddy covers 10 12 minutes left in the show we got art to Caesar coming up and we still got my a daily uh NFL presidential pick it'll be on Dallas and Cleveland Art deas are joining us art uh my apologies for telling you you were on second I messed up I had to move guests around I forgot to tell you let's get straight into it uh do you think lines are sharper today than they were 10 15 years ago it's a good question I mean I've been in the business eight years so I can only really talk about it from my perspective having been in it um I think your right press in the sense that maybe the Little League games as we call them like the extra games and the FCS games y I think those are a little bit sharper now I will say this though the fact that they're sharper and they are on TV now you can get everything on espm Plus or streaming doesn't mean the general public bets them that's still all sharp money so you know you still have to book to the sharps in that respect but you're right when it comes to these Prime Time games and all the these games that get all the coverage you see a lot more general public people hop in even look at a sport like the WNBA I mean that's seen a big growth here in these last couple of years especially this year where it used to be all Sharps and now you see some general public people jump in so obviously the expansion of gambling has helped kind of raise up a lot of the lower tier Sports all right we're going to go through college football and NFL but before we get into that we got a great question from Bill sandville Teddy feel free to wait wait in here um do you guys tease NFL spreads or totals uh is one better than the other I'm going to tell you right off the bat I never tease totals ever ever ever uh but art I'm curious what Teddy you go and then afterwards art I also want to know what the general public is doing not only your your opinion in in this Teddy so no self respecting wise guy or if you're serious about betting you would never have a total on your on your uhh teaser card plain and simple so the answer is sides and sides only and of course we talk about the Wong teasers that's your classic teasers where you're teasing short favorites you know sorry I say short underdogs of less than a field goal up to more than a touchdown and you're teasing bigger favorites of more than a touchdown down to under a field goal capturing all the key numbers that's the standard methodology for Wise Guy teaser plays do you see any other action that's not that art that that that of any volum no and I mean obviously teaser cards are very important to sports books and you see a lot of them come across the counter on Saturdays and Sundays to obviously back with you guys say you never tease totals you like you said you never see a sharp guy do that I know for me just my perspective I love a two- team Sixpoint teaser in the NFL that's like my favorite thing to bet I love betting those Teddy mentioned it I love going over key number of seven or taking someone like you know yeah like perfect example PR I would take Dallas plus eight and a half and I would take Cincinnati minus one and a half yeah I mean like that's like a perfect setup teaser for you why you mad at me that's exactly what I was gonna ask you was what your teaser was for this week and the answer is Dallas and Cincinnati there we have it uh so let's so NFL Sunday college is Saturday let's start with college football where are you seeing the action coming this week what was your let me start with it what was your best decision last week what was your worst decision last week in college football and then let's talk about this week's card where the money's coming who the pros likes who the Joe's likes so our worst decision was Alabama shocking a huge huge favorite we took early money on them at 32 closed I believe 34 but we had multiple five fig bets on Alabama and so like going into Saturday we were pretty good Thursday and Friday were good Saturday not as great we did well on the LSU game because ingame was pretty good for us people laid LSU second half in that game so that was good for us as well and I'll tell you what the Monday game was incredible there was so many things tied to Florida state with teaser or I'm sorry with moneyline parlays probably some teasers too and then we had a house player come in and drop a sixf figure money line bet on Florida State so oops you know yeah when Florida State loses outright like that as an $89 favorite it's going to be a really nice weekend and it really wrapped up which was a good first week for us in college so let's talk about this week what we're looking at the card for week two in college football tell me right now where's your parl liability who are all what are the sides that the the Joe's are uh uh lining up on early and where have you seen the most sharp action in early week college football betting for week two yeah let's start with the public Teddy Public's laying the short favorite with George Tech minus 2 and a half at Syracuse now listen their win against Florida State doesn't look that great anymore Syracuse is pretty you know spunky team they were actually good for us last week against Ohio so they're laying the short favorite there they're actually taking the points with NC State at home against Tennessee they took seven and a half it's eight now so they actually the numbers gone against them there and they're taking the over in Boise Oregon the public over 61 figure to be a lot of points there Sharps laid Virginia Tech Min -7 at home against Marshall coming off their bad loss against Vanderbilt they also laid Arizona State minus 4 a half at home against Mississippi State that's now 6 and a half the Buffalo Missouri unders saw some good sharp money at 52 a half and 52 now sitting at 51 and you got to talk about the big game the game of the week obviously the early 9:00 a.m. Vegas kickoff Texas at Michigan we open that 6 and a half really respect it better we like and you know usually like to book to laid the 6 and a half went to seven now sitting at 7 and a half I think at some point we will see some Michigan public money come in hasn't happened yet though you think even I mean isn't the public just going to bet what they saw last week which is Michigan not uh not really dominating or is that is that gonna I mean you think that Michigan's going to get some love because they're the defending national champs I think Teddy because they're at home because of the defending champs and you know we've talked about this and I I know a lot of smart people say there are no key numers and a lot of Spar people who say there are key numbers in college football but I think they're going to see that seven and a half sitting there now and go well I'm getting over a touchdown with Michigan at home I just have to play it and to me that's when the general public will start to come in because obviously the sharps have already laate the six and a half and maybe even the seven moving that number up to seven and a half art uh love having you on the show man thank you for joining us every Wednesday art the Caesar everybody uh listen we're going to talk NFL we've done no baseball today at all period uh one of our listeners save the clock tower where he's in every day he says any baseball so uh real quick any uh baseball suggestions for today I I'm sorry I really don't have any it's so funny once we get into this week I mean last week was busy but this is the week I mean we got NFL tomorrow we got both college and NFL I wish I had some public or sharp action to give you on baseball obviously baseball really start to take a backseat here in this last month it will rev back up for baseball playoffs but right now there's not much going on Teddy real quick we do have a b real quick we do have a baseball show on this channel it's called first pitch it's up now wager talk TV you get all the baseball you want sorry go ahead my friend no that's perfect that was a perfect lead we've got just a few minutes left with Arthur de Caesar raceing Sports risk management supervisor at the Westgate super book here in Las Vegas Art let's talk about the NFL right now Thursday night Friday night Sunday night Monday night four National TV games talk about those first if you're seeing any pros versus Joe's and anything else that stands out to you on the card yeah absolutely you know I've talked all summer Baltimore is going to be a need for us on Thursday you know we saw nice Kansas City money come in and trickle in all summer minus 2 and A2 minus 120 same thing with Friday game Philly open minus one now sitting at two and a half we will need Green Bay in the game the Monday night game you know jets are as high as six saw a lot of money come in we went to as low as three and a half there's been some buyback on San Francisco San Francisco's been putting a lot of moneyline parlays as well that game has trick trickled back up to Jets now plus four and a half so we're still probably going to need San Francisco in the game but obviously a lot can happen because that rolls into Monday night and anything else stand out to you for week one on the NFL card what about totals have you seen anything with the totals Ralph had a chart with the divisional underdogs are we seeing you know the you know the divisional dogs take money uh talk about some of the non- Marquee games for week one in the NFL before we let you go yeah absolutely couple things with the public Public's laying the Saints minus four at home obviously against Carolina who was one of the worst teams obviously the worst team in the league last year Public's also taking the Colts Texans over it's one of the high totals on the board at 49 they're not worth that it's a divisional game they're taking the over Sharps took over 40 in the Panther game now 42 they took over 41 in the Steeler game got as high as 43 it's now come back to 42 Vikings big flip they were a dog in New York minus one or getting one now they're minus one and a half Jacksonville was seeing a lot of money at plus three and a half will need Miami in the game and a couple other ones that were three and a half that saw some money Raiders and the commanders saw money three and a half we've now moved to three but right now to be fair our biggest need because we saw a couple of house players come in and lay Buffalo minus five and a half minus 6 our biggest need right now on Sunday is going to be the Arizona Cardinals art what do you like he gave us his teaser yeah press I'm I'm he might like some other stuff and the teaser accidentally slipped out of his mouth no no no I'm I'm in on that teaser and I think the Cults are worth teasing as well I think the Cults getting them getting them to eight and a half at home in a divisional game I know everyone loves the Texans and the Texans are probably going to be great and win 10 or 11 games but I think frisky and they're at home I think the Colts are worth the tease as well I am with you I think the Colts win the game so I'm with you on that art what do you got to promote listen guys I you know there's some exciting stuff and I you know it kind of broke after we were last week you know we I got to promote what we're doing at the Westgate minus 108 on sides in the NFL All Season minus 109 in college football season so that's a big thing that we just rolled out last week that's going to start every Monday every Monday between you know noon and 1 pm. Vegas time we're going to put that out you're going to come in you'll see them on the sheets you'll see it on the board all sides in the NFL minus 108 all sides in college minus 109 art the season love you brother we'll see you on Wednesday next week uh guys thanks for all the love uh we got ourselves 100 likes it's time for your daily presidential address okay everybody um there we go Daily Prez Address - Cowboys vs Browns okay everybody I'm Lawrence presman a wagertalk.com I've got a h bet for you on the Dallas Cleveland game before we get into that and I'll take that apart in great detail I have a 5% NFL play up this Sunday uh these plays are rare and I absolutely love this play we got a sitewide promo for any handicapper you want only $49 for three days of play I highly suggest you purchase mine I have a game on Thursday College uh all day Saturday and I have a huge card on Sunday let's get into this Dallas Cleveland game Dallas plus two and a half against Cleveland and I'm going to uh I'm going to tell you I don't understand this line at all I know the Browns have a great defense number one last year in yards allowed but they did let teams score more than 21 points a game on them last year and that put them in the middle of the pack their defense is completely overrated as for their offense man Watson might end up crippling this franchise not only is he the worst contract signed in history but he might continue to completely suck Plus chob is out for the next four games and I'm not high on this offense at all now don't be sleeping on this Dallas team I know a lot of Talking Heads out there they think oh Dallas sucks this isn't going to be their year but this is a team that is coming into the season with the fifth best defense in the League last year allowing points which is by far the most important statistic from my perspective a hell of a lot better than Cleveland's defense and they were the number one team in all of football in scoring points so I look at both the sides of this game Cleveland's D is worse than Dallas and Cleveland's offense well they're like a Tootsie Roll compared to Dallas's Toblerone I know there are these are last year's numbers I get it but I don't think Cleveland did much to fix their team except get Watson back and Dallas didn't exactly lose everyone on their roster and don't forget their best off well we already discussed the fact that Nick chub is out bottom line here Dall has the best player on the field on defense in Micah they have the best QB by far they have the best wide receiver they have the better dunit they have the much better offensive unit they are a veteran team that knows it needs to win out of the gate maybe the only reason the boys are a dog air is they went four and five on the road last year well they did beat the New York Giants 40 to nothing in their first game last year and that was on the road this is an absolute no-brainer pick for me take Dallas plus two and a half against Cleveland and PS This will be Brady's first game ever in the booth the most boring man on the planet will be exciting to hear him speak that's it thanks for watching Teddy covers take us home we'll see you guys tomorrow for another edition of wager talk today between now and then enjoy the games and best of of luck with all your bets