Extended Sunday 5 PM Tropical Update: PTC 6 forms in the southern Gulf

Well, good Sunday afternoon. The time is 452 central time. We're here to bring you the latest on the tropics. It had to happen sometime and here we are, it's potential tropical cyclone six. Now, it was formerly invest 91 just a few hours ago now has been upgraded to PTC six from the National Hurricane Center. So this is a current look at it with our satellite observation here. Check it out, it's our, check it out rather, it's kind of disorganized at this point. We're seeing this large area of showers and storms in the sun and Gulf of Mexico for the Bay of Campeche. So this is where we've been tracking this system over the last couple of days. It has now strengthened a little bit with its wind speeds. Now gusting at 60 MPH, sustained winds at 50 MPH. Now PTC SIX is still lacks a well defined center, so there's no center of circulation to track just yet. The NHC is investigating this and they're continuing to, you know, compile data on that. So we're still waiting on a center to form and it looks like it will form getting into tomorrow. So strengthening is certainly on the horizon likely to become tropical storm Francine by Monday by tomorrow. So this is what we have going on. Now, there has a cone now initiated for this and getting into the next several days, this is gonna change up since there's no center of circulation yet, this cone will probably shift a little bit maybe more to the east or to the west in the next couple of days. So still waiting on that center of circulation to form PTC six. Now expected to become a tropical storm though tomorrow maintaining its strength as a tropical storm in the warm Gulf waters getting into Tuesday, hugging right along the Texas coast. Again, this is the initial cone here cone here showing that it does strengthen to ac story one hurricane by Wednesday. So landfall expected somewhere either in East Texas or western Louisiana sometime Wednesday or early Thursday. Again, this is the initial cone forecast calling for it to strengthen to a category one storm by later Wednesday or early Thursday. So again, this is something we'll be watching very closely in the coming days. Just wanna bring you the latest on what's expected with this. Then it will be moving inland, getting into Thursday and Friday and then into the heart of the country later in the week. So this is what we have at this point, really what we're expecting here in our part of the Gulf some unsettled weather for several days. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will bring us kind of that soggy stretch, some gusty winds and some coastal flooding. So we'll get into the more details or more specific details with that for the New Orleans area in a minute. But we'll be talking now what it kind of looks like at this point. So like I mentioned, kind of lacking that well defined center, but since it's so close to land, that's why the NHC has called it PTC six is initiating these advisories because it's so close to Mexico and it will continue to bring impacts to parts of the Gulf coast and getting into the next couple of days. So this is what we have the strongest winds placed on the southwest side of the system and getting into tomorrow, it is expected to take that better structure, that better form. And tomorrow we'll probably be calling this tropical storm Francine. So right now we are sitting under this nice cold front in our part of the Gulf. So we have been dry today. But getting into tomorrow, moisture will start to creep back in to the Gulf of Mexico and to or through the Gulf of Mexico northward into the Gulf coast. So Southeast Louisiana, South Mississippi, sure we'll start to creep in starting tomorrow. But we're watching down here for the southern Gulf of Mexico to see what eventually will become Francine will do. This is the Spaghetti models So going into the next couple of days, this is what we have getting into Wednesday, still hugging the Texas coastline by Wednesday, drifting up to the north at first and then it's expected to make that t that turn to the northeast on Wednesday again, landfall either in East Texas or western Louisiana Wednesday or early Thursday. This is the initial forecast, but something to kind of hang on to here and make your preps. Now to let you know, we do have some rough weather coming our way during the midweek time frame. It looks like a big rain maker for us. There is just gonna be a whole slug of moisture coming into Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, big rain maker for us. More soaking rain and more flooding rain expected here at home. So let's just kind of walk you through the next couple of days. Really? Let's focus on the impact since the cone can still change. You know, the intensity can still change. We'll just really focus on the impact for Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi. So the rest of Sunday quiet, a nice rest of the day we have tomorrow also for Monday, trending mostly dry, but I mentioned that moisture in the Gulf of Mexico starts to creep up into the coastline, starts to travel a little bit farther to the north. So tomorrow, I think we'll see a couple spotty showers and storms for our coastal spots. But Monday largely looking like a dry day. So tomorrow trending mostly dry aside from a couple spotty showers and storms for our coastal locations getting into tomorrow afternoon and in the evening, Tuesday is when we start to see the influences of this tropical disturbance. So PTC SIX starts to bring some more moisture in our direction. So Tuesday is when the tropical downpours begin. So tomorrow if, if you know your house floods really easily, you'll live along the coastline. It wouldn't be a bad idea. Tomorrow to maybe pick up some sand bags doesn't mean you'll definitely need them no reason to panic. But if you know that your house is really susceptible to flooding and you live along the coastline, that's something to kind of keep in mind because we could see again those flooding rains, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and also maybe some coastal flooding for some of our locations. So that is something to keep in mind for us. Nothing to stress too much about. We've been through way worse. This storm is not anticipated to blow up into anything uh, unimaginable and, and major. But again, it could be a cat one strength when it makes landfall in western Louisiana or East Texas by late Wednesday or Thursday. So focusing on the impacts Tuesday, we'll start to see some passing downpours during the day, maybe some heavy showers here and there, Tuesday through the morning and into the afternoon. So we could maybe see some localized street flooding on Tuesday, especially given all the rain we got over the last few days, flooding be as difficult to achieve. And that's something we'll have to watch as the winds kind of pick up midweek. With this. Could we get some, maybe down trees, some power outages? It's possible we get that even with a summertime storm. So just wanna throw it out there. It's, it's a possibility for the midweek time frame maybe because the ground is so saturated, flooding can be done a little bit more readily and maybe we could see some of those weak trees go down if we get some strong wind gusts working in there, Wednesday and Thursday, something to kind of keep in mind for a couple days this week with this rough weather expected. So Tuesday is when things kind of start. Tuesday is not going to be that bad, passing down, pours Tuesday a little breezy, especially at the coast. I don't think we'll see the roughest of the weather until Wednesday and Thursday. So Wednesday and Thursday, Wednesday, in particular, that's going to be when we see the most rain and probably the strongest winds and the coastal flooding. So this is the European forecast, of course, the big global model honing in on this. So like I mentioned now, still lacking a defined center, just a PTC six. It's gusting winds up to 60 MPH. So the winds are there, but this is what we have Wednesday. So fast forwarding through the next couple of days, it is expected to strengthen its sitting over the very warm gulf strengthening up to a tropical storm, maybe category one hurricane by Wednesday. So this is again, one model run, we know how these change up a little bit, especially as we get better data in in the coming hours in the coming days. So this is what we have the European model Wednesday evening landfall looking like maybe western Louisiana. Again, this will change up a little bit. But keep in mind our part of the Gulf, Southeast Louisiana, South Mississippi, we're on the eastern side of this. We're going to get the rain. We could see maybe some quick tropical spin up tornadoes, very small chance for that. But you can never rule that out when you're on the eastern side of this. You could see maybe those quick spin ups. We'll have to watch those, especially for our coastal spots getting into Wednesday and early Thursday, maybe some quick tropical tornadoes, some brief spin ups with that plus the heavy rain, the gusty winds that will begin on Wednesday and some coastal flooding, moderate coastal flooding expected. So this is what we have into Wednesday, Wednesday. The the rainiest of the weather coming in that lasts until late Wednesday through early Thursday. Again, the timing can still change with this as well. This is just the preliminary initial forecast Thursday, still dealing with some rain and rough weather early in the day, but it looks like it'll be darting off to the north along the Mississippi River by later Thursday in the afternoon and then we'll see some drier air wrapping in behind that. So the second half of Thursday, Friday into next weekend, dry, nicer days. GFS. Other big, uh, global model, of course, pretty good consensus here that this landfall will be happening later Wednesday, maybe early Thursday. GFS a little bit, I think farther to the west slightly, but it is very close. So that's good. The models are in good agreement but still again, things can change. Don't cling onto this forecast since it's the pre preliminary one that we're putting out here. So Wednesday night, landfall, Western Louisiana looking like could again, maybe be in East Texas. But models indicating a western Louisiana landfall. We're on the sloppy side of this, uh like for lack of a better terminology, rainy weather for us, Wednesday, rough weather Wednesday into early Thursday. And then this pulls up to the north along the Mississippi River the rest of Thursday. Now we have the drier air wrapping in behind it. So it looks like the second half of the day, Thursday while it will remain breezy, we'll start to see drier air filtering in and nicer days for Thursday, the second half of Thursday at least. But Friday into next weekend, that's when we see some calmer days, some calmer weather. So rainfall totals area wide over the next few days. Anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of rain is expected from this system, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. So 4 to 6 inches of rain spread out over those three days. But we can see some locally, higher amounts of rain that can induce the street flooding. And I said we just had so much wet weather the last three days. This is not gonna be good for us for some of our locations that could see just pretty um easily flooded streets and easily uh flooded bodies of water. So our small creeks and streams, some of our waterways, our rivers will have to watch for this because of the additional rain that we'll see from PTC six, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. So the biggest thing, I think this is going to be a rain maker. A lot of soggy wet weather. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, make sure you drive carefully, you avoid those flooded roadways, you bring rain gear with you and we just kind of get through this thing. It's, it's this time of the year. It's the peak of hurricane season and we do have a system coming in our direction. So let's quickly look at the wind gust. So this is the wind gust forecast, so not doing much. Now, then we see this strength, this tightening, this better organization through tomorrow. That's when it will be named Francine. And then we get into Tuesday, still hugging the Mexico coastline. The Texas coastline just offshore of the coast for Tuesday. But winds starting to pick up for them. A little breezy for them, winds gusting up to 30 MPH here at Home New Orleans area. Make it a little breezy Tuesday. We'll see winds coming in from the east. This is when we could maybe get the minor coastal flooding beginning because of the sustained east wind pattern, Tuesday and Wednesday. So could see some minor coastal flooding beginning for the high tides on Tuesday in our part of the Gulf, also winds starting to pick up for our coastal spots may be gusting 2025 MPH on Tuesday. So it gets breezy Tuesday. We'll have the passing tropical downpours, but the roughest of the weather again coming in Wednesday into early Thursday and then take this farther out in time. This is Tuesday night, still seeing the storm turn to the north northeast. So that's what we'll be watching. How much can it turn because exactly where it makes landfall this week will really depend on how much of the impacts that we see from this, how the extent of the impacts at least. So this is a sustained wind speed forecast for the next couple of days, winds picking up and then going into Wednesday, taking that turn or curve to the north northeast. These are sustained winds. So Western Louisiana seeing those strong sustained winds picking up 5060 mus 5060 plus MPH, probably even higher than that. If we're talking cat, one strength, we're in the 7080 range for uh sustained winds right in the center of the storm. So Wednesday, this is what we have Wednesday evening. Again, that's when the storm really looks like it will be pushing inland. And then for us, the windy weather in our part of the Gulf, Southeast Louisiana, South Mississippi, New Orleans, strong winds expected Wednesday, especially for the coastline and for our western most areas so strong winds expected Wednesday, but check out the sustained winds for New Orleans 2030 MPH, coastal spots will probably see sustained winds closer to 40 MPH. Um Getting into Thursday, this is early like midnight. So late Wednesday, early Thursday, strong winds spreading inland gusty winds continuing for us into early Thursday. And then as the system pulls away, things start to calm down the second half of the day on Thursday. So again, roughest of the weather coming in Wednesday, Thursday. Sorry, I'm being repetitive, but I just want you to know the impacts. That's of course the most important thing. Does it get a name? Who cares at this point? What do I, what's gonna happen to me? What's gonna happen where I live? That's really the most important thing. So let's take a closer look at sustained wind speeds for us. So this is Tuesday again, like I mentioned getting a little breezy during the day. Tuesday. Nothing crazy just yet. Maybe winds getting a little stronger for the coast on Tuesday, Wednesday. That's when it, I'll call it a windy day for us. Sustained winds coming in from the east. This is when we could see a and the coastal flooding for eastward facing shorelines, even our south southern facing shorelines. So really our coastal spots can be dealing with some coastal flooding for Wednesday because our winds will be coming mostly from the east southeast. So that's why we'll be seeing maybe some moderate coastal flooding. These are our sustained winds around 2025 MPH, maybe 3035 mile per hour, sustained winds for the coast on Wednesday. And then we get into early Thursday. So this is like the middle of the night when the storm looks like it will be moving inland, sustained winds, maybe 3040 MPH at the coast 2535 MPH inland. So it's just gonna be a windy late Wednesday, a windy early Thursday and then that system pulls away. Winds will start to calm down. Getting into Thursday afternoon. Still a little breezy though the first part of the day, day, Thursday night, that's when things kind of wind down for us as it looks now again, the timing with this can still change. But let's talk more about the impacts. This is going to be a weather impact alert day for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Because we will see flooding rain, tropical downpours coming in waves starting Tuesday really picking up an intensity Wednesday. And then last thing through early Thursday, Wednesday is gonna be a nasty day. Just a lot of rain, just kind of a nuisance. And you wanna go from point A to point B driving is gonna be a real pain because we'll see those passing tropical downpours. We'll probably see some street flooding during the day on Wednesday. But really Tuesday, Wednesday into early Thursday could see some street flooding across the area. Also, our bodies of water probably going to rise a little bit because we've gotten so much rain over the last several. So this will kind of exacerbate the flooding issue when it comes to the smaller bodies of water, our small creek streams and we, we know how that goes when we pick up a lot of rain. Also, it's gonna be windy. So it will be breezy Tuesday winds strong on Wednesday into early Thursday. Wind gusts may get up to 40 to 50 plus MPH at the coast. So maybe we're talking wind gusts up to 60 MPH for the immediate coastline. Inland New Orleans Metro wind gusts probably 4045 MPH. We'll be honing in on the details of this in the next, you know, subsequent forecast, but just plan for some strong winds across the area on Wednesday through early Thursday. The strongest of those gusts happening for our coastal spots. With that we'll see coastal flooding. I think of 1 to 3 ft above normal high tide. Could it be 1 to 4 ft? Maybe? It just depends on where the storm looks like it will be making landfall. So coastal flooding is expected across the area. Um That's something that certainly keep in mind if again, like I mentioned before, if you know that you're pretty susceptible to flooding, not a bad idea to pick up maybe some sandbags tomorrow while tomorrow is gonna be dry and a quiet day. So a recap again, weather impact alert for Tuesday, Wednesday especially and then through early Thursday, it's why there's asterisk there because that's when the roughest weather comes in Wednesday, Thursday plan for heavy rain. This is going to be a rain maker. If you could take away one thing, it's just gonna be a soggy couple of days, heavy rain for us, expected gusty winds and we could watch for some street flooding and coastal flooding. Plus just our bodies of water running a little bit higher. Um None of our, our bodies of water in, in Southeast Louisiana are in a flood stage. We're not in a flood stage at all, but that's something we'll have to monitor. If you know where you, where you live, there's like a creek that floods pretty easily and it's kind of running high from the last couple of days. Just something to kind of keep in mind that might be something we'll have to deal with during the midweek time frame. Always watch for street flooding when we get these systems coming in. And of course, the coastal flooding of 1 to 3 ft above normal high tide, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. So I'll leave you with the seven day forecast. Again. Tomorrow is gonna be quiet, could see a couple spotty storms tomorrow. Humidity coming back tomorrow, mid eighties and then Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. That's when PTC six, which will probably be Francine by tomorrow. So either tropical storm Francine or hurricane Francine coming into the Gulf coast bringing us some impacts Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday by the second half of Thursday as it looks now will be drying up Friday into next weekend, dry, nice quiet days to clear out from this system. So thanks for tuning in. We'll be back in a few hours with the latest update from the National Hurricane Center to see if there's any shifts in the track. Make sure you do check back in online. We'll be back also for the evening news tonight at 10 o'clock. So thanks again for tuning in. We'll be back in a few hours.