Palantir Stock HITS NEW HIGH‼️ What Now?

paler stock is absolutely incredible the stock just closed at a new multi-year high for the stock it is up getting close to 500% move since where the stock started out around 2023 which is absolutely extraordinary this is one of the best stock price moves we've really seen over the past year and a half to two years really out there in the stock market in general absolutely incredible stock it is a we can call it a bit I don't know if I want to call it quite a lifechanging stock yet right but it's definitely a wealth changing stock for a lot of people that were buying the stock back in 2022 in 2023 absolutely extraordinary but this is leading a lot of folks to say palente a sell now not because the business model is failing or something like that they're saying sell the stock because the valuation is too high and so I wanted to kind of react to this a little bit this is kind of like this video today is a little bit in between a main Channel video and a reaction Channel video I'm putting it here on the reaction Channel but it's kind of like a little bit of in between because I want to react to kind of something like this where somebody's saying sell the stock right now right and I want to show you a little bit of different frame of thought about you know if paler actually a sell now we're going to talk about where the stock price is going from here now that S&P 500 inclusion is getting much closer so we're going to go through some different valuations I have for this to kind of you know reference this and then we'll speak about the stock price kind of where I'm expecting things to go from here and I'll also spend some time I want to spend some time toward the end of this video telling you how we identified paler back in 2022 as a a buy right because you might say like how did this happen there was a series of things that were transpiring in P's business model along with the stock price move that was very interesting back in 2022 that made this stock an incredible buy opportunity right and since that particular time if you were buying back in 2022 certainly has changed the game for you uh when it comes to your portfolio right so lot to get into in this one here today appreciate youall joining me thank you so much for being here thank you for smashing that Thumbs Up Button thank you for being subscribed and uh I hope you always enjoy the pener comment content I put out out there I try to do you know a decent amount of content but uh anyway so let's start jumping through this guys okay is is very important so pener 80 times PE is pure nose bed now first off listen listen listen it's very easy whenever a stock is trading at a multiple significantly above where the market trades at it's very easy to say it's overvalued it's a ripoff sell the stock it's always going to be the EAS easiest Avenue to take always and the reason being is you don't then have to run projections you don't have to project out numbers you don't have to run numbers you don't have to do math you don't have to do any of that you don't have to think about well how does a stock like this in this sort of space you usually trade at given these certain growth rates versus another stock if you want to actually know if a Stock's a ripoff or a great deal you have to actually run numbers you have to actually spend time you have to actually do math it's I wish it was as simple as is I actually I don't wish it was as simple cuz then everybody would do the stock market but if it was as simple as just the stock market in general trades at a 20p this one trades way above that it's a ripoff if it was as easy as that everybody would do stock market investing and everybody would get these incredible returns right it's not as easy as that it does a lot of it you got takes a lot of work to really understand is a stock a great deal is it a ripoff those sorts of things okay so this individual they make an argument paler ADP PE is pure nose bleed paler is up over 37% since last coverage after reported outstanding Q2 fiscal year 2024 results with revenue and earnings beating estimates with strength in US commercial segment from unrelenting AIP demand as it closes record number of $5 million1 million deals and is unlocking operating leverage however with its recent addition to the S&P 500 I believe the stock has gotten way ahead of itself when taking Management's fiscal year 2024 guidance in consensus estimates thereafter with paler commanding the highest multiple in the SAS complex there's more downside than upside in the short term therefore I'm downgrading my rating to sell with a price target of 27 okay first off there's a potential that pener could ride all the way up to 40 get going into S&P 500 inclusion and then there's like a big downfall that happens for the stock down to like 34 bucks so that's something like to to take into account that could happen I'm not saying that's going to happen we'll speak more about the stock price a little later on but you know you always got to keep that in mind when somebody puts a sell rate on cuz you know it's a dangerous one to put on because like pener could run to fight 40 plus here in the short term and you know then you're going to look really really wrong and then if it even drops after that down to 34 you still look wrong in the end right because it was like what was this all for you got to kind of be banking this paler is going to go down to $27 or something like that right and I even look at obviously paler is a stock that has been tremendous for me I've made 100 and I don't know it's a large amount of money $150,000 something on the stock now at this point in time right and it's done me very well and so even I look at it and I'm like maybe maybe it is uh you know a good time to to sell the stock right well here's kind of a little deeper thoughts around this right so pener I mean forward PS 2-year forward PS we're looking at THX stocks.com there's no doubt it's way above the market right but you got to keep a couple things in mind here one is whenever you see a company trading above a market multiple you got to say how how far above a market multiple is so H's case let's say it's about four times Market multiple right so I have to then look at the industry it it's in right the sector in it's in the SAS space so SAS companies always command a much higher p ratio than an average company that's just the way it is those are the Holy Grail business models their margins are incredible they're very sticky business models they have many times the best of best customers so SAS related companies usually going to trade big Market multiples over the market right so we can say okay if it was trading at four times maybe an average stock it's sass so let's say it's maybe three times so then we can say okay is this company is this company's earnings per share growth and revenue growth at least 3x let's say for instance in Average stock right well if we think about kind of average stocks and we think about where paler is at next year earnings per share growth for paler expected to be 48% uh most many stocks are kind of in the 8 to 12% range so we're talking you know at least 4X here right next year Revenue growth expected you know analysts are kind of at about 20% I think that number is really low I think it's going to be significantly above that but if you look at many stocks they're kind of in that 4.5 to 6.5% range so we're talking around a 4X as well so if you're got a stock that let's say is around 4X the the valuation of an average stock right and they're doing about 4X the the growth rates well is is it really that rich then no it's actually fairly priced right it's actually fairly priced now if you say it's really about 3x because this sort of company is going to always command a much higher P than the market trades at then you can say you can make actually an argument that paler is undervalued today undervalued this is where it be you know it starts to be very interesting to run the math and start to run numbers around this right as with many things in life the easiest decision is usually not the right decision the easiest decision is to say p ER trades way above the market so it's a ripoff when in reality you start running some projection you start running some numbers you start thinking about this logically and you start to understand oh maybe it's not that and I understand like when I first got in the market I thought the same way a lot of people think like oh this stock trades at a 30p it's a ripoff it's a 40p it's a ripoff the market trades at 15 oh gosh this is ridiculous right I thought the same way and I learned kind of Warren Buffett philosophies right about value investing Ben Graham right intelligent investor was one of the my first like big investment books I read and that works for for Value investing but growth investing is very different paler is not a value stock paler is a growth stock the growth rates this company has is exponentially better than value companies right this is no Coca-Cola this is no Pepsi this is no McDonald stock this is a whole different animal here with whole different growth rates and whole different margin profiles right and so you have to treat these sorts of companies so when I first got in the market you know in my first few years started looking into Amazon I really liked Amazon I was like man there's this AWS thing that looks interesting mainly I was thinking about it from the e-commerce side and I just knew as somebody that was a young person at that time right I'm like this e-commerce is going to be huge like everybody's going to be ordering stuff like in the future from Amazon right and I was right about that but I wasn't able to get an Amazon back in those days I wasn't able to build Amazon into a big position until the 2022 drop right because back then I looked at Amazon when I was first getting in the market back in you know 09 2010 2011 I said Amazon the PE Ratio is ridiculous like Amazon back in those days traded at PE ratios like in the hundreds or something insane and so I was looking at it I'm like that's that's ridiculous Walmart trades at a 20 right and so I couldn't do it and ultimately I just didn't understand how to actually properly value grow stocks would be able to look at something like this on an educated level right now let's run some projections here so if you run you know 27% Revenue growth on average for the next several years which I think is very doable for paler I certainly don't think a guarantee but it is definitely a doable number and they could do net income growth about 45% a year which is also doable given that they getting more and more operating leverage in this business model as their revenue continues to go up they put them at net income margins about of about 37% in 2028 which would be you know very very high but I think it is possible now if you value the company at just a 20 or 30 PE sure the stock looks like a ripoff today right but why would a SAS company growing revenues at 25% plus growing net income at 40% plus on average why would it command a 20 to 30p that doesn't make any sense people wish companies like paler traded in the 20 to 30p range because that would be more in line with the market multiple but why would a company that is far superior to the 99.9% of companies why would it trade anywhere anywhere close to a 20 to 30p that doesn't make any sense right so we got to run some more realistic projections here so let's say we run the same numbers right 27% Revenue growth on average for the next 4 years 45% net income uh growth over the next four uh four years on average right but we run it at a little bit more of a realistic ptio range right so for this one here we're running a 50 to a 70p ratio right which is about 2.5x to 3.5x to say an average stock in the market which is actually much more realistic for a company like paler that's growing at that would be growing at these sorts of growth rates right this means a kagar compound annual growth rate on the low end for paler would be around 14% And A compounding annual growth rate on the high end would be about 24% right now you got to assume that if peners really piling up that net income they'll probably do share BuyBacks that that could honestly help their earnings per share as well so that's something that does you know you kind of got to think about there it's paler likely to D loot shareholder value over the next few years no not not in any significant way right if anything they're likely to take shares off the market so that could even help earnings per share as well so when you begin to look at it like this you begin to understand something very important in regards to paler paler does not trade cheap paler is not going to trade cheap for a long time and you either have to be willing to accept that or not accept that because the bottom line is if you're hoping paler is going to trade at some 20 to 30 PE it's not happening in this decade likely you you might get that opportunity in the 2030s in regards to paler if they have much lower growth rates and things like that but you're likely not getting this company for a 20 or 30 PE in this decade because the growth rates are so much better than an average company right and because they are so well positioned in the marketplace compared to almost anybody else so when you when you have a company that is perfectly positioned with the perfect products and services in a marketplace right Additionally the growth rates are significantly above average companies you're not going to get the company at any sort of normal growth rate anytime soon or excuse me at any sort of normal p ratio anytime soon you're going to have to pay up for a stock like this is is premium quality right this is the you know this is like a Ferrari of the stock market and guess what you know you might look at a Ferrari You may wish you could get go get a new Ferrari today for $30,000 like man why can't I get a Ferrari like I can go get Civic for 30,000 I can go get I don't know Honda Accord I don't even know if those are still 30,000 for for 30,000 why can't I get a Ferrari for 30,000 I want a brand new Ferrari for 30,000 uh uh why do you think you can't get a Ferrari for 30,000 like like you got to wake up at some point in time because it's a premium car paler is a premium stock you're not going to get it at the same valuation that you're going to get Pepsi and Coca-Cola and McDonald's you have to wake up at some point in time and realize that right like the more you start to think about it the more you start to say this is actually Common Sense this is common sense to begin to understand this right and a lot of people unfortunately don't have common sense that's a whole other subject there no if we want to run paler at some higher growth rates right like Alex carf has always talked about before the whole 2022 interest rate hikes and all that happened right Alex karp always used to talk about we're grow grow 30% Plus on average a year right and obviously when the FED raised interest rates that changed everything for a lot of companies right it very significantly hurt a lot of companies growth rates and paler was just one of many companies that growth rates obviously plummeted in 2022 but let's say they get back to that 30% plus growth which honestly if you look at the growth rates as company been putting up they've just been going higher and higher and higher and higher so I don't think it's impossible for the company to get back to like a 35% growth rate right especially with AIP and all the excitement there and all the deals are likely going to close for this next bit of time so let's say they do like 35% on average over the next few years that would be able to bump them to at least I would say 50% net income growth on average uh over those coming years we put them at a net income margin of about 33% here which is a little under Mr Softy I believe Microsoft somewhere around a 34% or so right no 50 to 70p ratio which honestly is low if penter grown 35% Top Line 50% bottom line for a company that's put into the SAS space 50 to 70 is way low you're looking at likely 100 plus but we're going to run 50 to 70 here they' give you a compounding annual growth rate on the low end of about 18% on the high end of about 28% right so this wet dream can we call it of people wishing paler would trade at that 20 to 30p it's not happening it's not going to happen and so if you're looking at pal Ander stock and you're thinking is a stock a buy or sell you've got to look at it further out you've got to think about what are the realistic growth rates for this company over the coming years when it comes to revenue when it comes to net income do you think they're going to dilute shareholder value over the next few years or you think it's more likely they're going to take shares off the market in the next few years right do you think they're likely to come out with any future game-changing products and services over the next few years their next AIP right something like that how much money do you think they're going to start to make from that how well positioned do they have any competitors that are really on their tail doesn't seem like it and so it seems like if anything they're building a bigger moat around the business right now which if you got the bigger moat you have along with being ass SAS company guess what you command even a bigger valuation and you attack on great growth rates that are way above market growth rates suddenly you have a stock here that's going to trade Rich for years to come years and years and years it's an Amazon phenomenon Amazon's always looked Rich right I actually I think right now Amazon's is probably the first time I've ever seen it where Amazon actually looks cheap on a p ratio basis 4 p ratio basis right now but Amazon really in its whole you know 25 years the Market's always traded uh 25 plus years I believe now Amazon's been public it's always looked Rich Amazon you know another stock that's always looked Rich guess what it is Tesla Tesla's always been Rich the Stock's always looked overv valued it's always looked like a ripoff people would always say it's a sell right and yet has Tesla not been one of the best stocks in the stock market since it when IPO back in what was that 2010 2011 yes it's it's been an extraordinary stock right Tesla's returns have been ridiculous despite every step along the way people have said Tesla's a rep off every step think about that for a moment like let that sink in Tesla people have been saying the entire time Tesla's been a sell and what do they have to show for it Tes up 14,000 in that amount of time right that's a little food for thought in regards to that and why do people like myself still shareholders of this company I was buying back when you know back here I was L back when the stock had that dramatic drop at late 2022 into 2023 right why are we willing to do it well Tesla's going to outgrow the Far Far majority of companies over the next 5 10 years that's why we're willing to pay up for that company even though Tesla looks at it get trades at very rich you know P ratios so that's a paler phenomenon that you got to understand here right it's always going to trade Rich for the next long bit of time now in regards to S&P 500 inclusion that is coming September 23rd 2024 4 so we can call that about 10 days from now right now I'm looking at options here in regards to pener and it's interesting so I was looking at September 20 27th expirations here and it looks like if you want to buy a $35 strike which right now the Stock's $ 3550 so let's look at 3550 30 3550 you got to pay about $123 for that right I mean I got to be honest some people are going to look at that as pretty attractive still and I got to say that that actually leads me to believe there's probably a little more upside in in paler stock in the very very short term meaning the next week or two because actually like I was expecting to see 3550suite 500 inclusion coming I I would say there's a high probability that paler still probably goes up in the short term and given that I I think the premiums are still a little too cheap here you might get some gamma squeezes as well which bodess very well for paler in the short term so know am I going to play it no no I own my good chunk of shares and a paler goes to 40 bucks over the next few weeks great right but at the end of the day like you know I I'm not I don't want to play that game of trying to time this one out perfectly in regards to options I'm just looking at it I'm just saying like I think there's a decent probability the stock still does go up in the short very short term we're talking here right then after S&P 500 inclusion happens and you got all the funds starting to buy in you know we'll see what paler is going to go in at but if this state baby keeps going up I mean it's possible paler goes in at 90 billion or100 billion market cap it's possible right if if pener keeps going risk on next thing you know is stocks 40 plus come September 23rd which is a possibility right man I mean that's going to be a lot of forced buying in paler when they actually get an S&P 500 so I do think that's kind of interesting I'm shocked the premiums aren't more if we take a Peak at September 20th here and we look at 3550 calls here 89 cents man I'm shocked I'm shocked guys I'm shocked because with how much momentum's in this stock paying less than a dollar for 350s I mean it's possible paler could be 40 bucks at this time next week with all the momentum in the stock that's interesting that's interesting like I said I'm not going to play it from a short-term perspective on the calls but I'm shocked it's not higher very very surprised right no I want to show you guys in educ this little education portion of the video well actually the that part was a great education as well as far as value and growth stocks but I want to also kind of take you back in regards to what we saw in regards to palente here right back in 2022 that in in 2023 that led us to this decision obviously build it into a pretty decent sized position that ultimately became you know a great performing stock right so one thing was pener was showing that it was continue to grow Revenue even in a tough time for the business right but meanwhile if you look at their expense profile it was stagnating so you had a company here where revenue is trending up and their expenses were not trending up anymore right and so if your expenses are not trending up anymore but your Revenue keeps going up you're going to start getting some incredible operating leverage in regards to business modeling at the end of the day you're going to start to produce real money on that bottom line right and it's going to start to grow exponentially especially if you can continue to keep those expenses in check while your Revenue flies up even better and so that's why we looked at paler in 2022 and I was like dang this is actually a great opportunity there was a stock that had crashed right you had a stock that had crashed where their expense profile was flatlining and their revenue was continue to up even in tough times with a balance sheet that was creme deeme ooh okay now now now we're talking in regards to a company and plus you know great great obviously products and services everybody that I'd ever talked to about paler products had nothing but good things to say right and we were doing research in the private group back in February 2023 on the stock we were talking about it extensively right we were looking at things like this this is back in 2022 um IDC worldwide artificial intelligence platform software Market shares and they're ranking paler as number one this is before everybody in their grandma was talking about AI right even though it was already a thing and paler was number one in the marketplace in 2021 in terms of revenue for AI so like that was boting very well right and a lot of people in private group like I can only imagine the cumulative amount of money made from paler stock now in my private stock group like it's got to be ridiculous number cuz when you think about just the money amount of money I made and I know there's a lot of people with so much more money invest in paler than I have invested in paler like the cumulative amount of money made now in paler stocks got to be ridiculous but you know people are taking advantage 808 somebody's buying in the eights they just picked up 100 shares uh they bought 100 shares at 813 here uh somebody bought uh 200 shares at 9972 the amount of money made in paler has got to be ridiculous we did a poll this is back in 2022 this is September 2022 we did Andre did this poll and it said how many P year tier shares do you own and uh it was 11 people owned between a th000 and 3,000 shares uh three people owned over 6,000 shares uh 17 people owned between 500 and 1,000 shares uh nine people own between you know Zer and 500 shares and then three people own between 3,000 and 6,000 shares so do you imagine the amount of money made in regards to paler stock it's got to be extraordinary right and obviously it's been a great stock for me it's now one of my top performing stocks it's not number one but it's up there right it's performed tremendous it's starting to get up there with a meta it is uh not quite up there with a Tesla yet it's still got a ways to go in regards to that and it still has a long way to go in regards to trying to get to an elf but if they can get these growth rates as far as Revenue go back above 30% oh my gosh it's going to be a GameChanger right so if you want to take your investing more serious and learn how to identify these sorts of companies you can click the pin comment down there apply private stock group private wealth group we help out people all the time understand this stuff play this game on a much higher level so then you're not just one of these people that is like oh the stock looks expensive oh this stock it's going down it means it's a bad stock like it doesn't work like that man there's a lot of lot of things you got to understand about these companies it's very detailed and uh I teach all that stuff in my private stock group so if you want to apply to join us in there for access to that we'll see if we can get you in there maybe in the next couple weeks much love and have a great day congrats paler bowls long way to go