Palantir CEO Alex Karp JUST SAID WHAT‼️

welcome in folks got a four piece for you here today four videos for me to react to first one up here Palante tier CEO Alex karp with some interesting comments that I want to go ahead and react to here that I I think is definitely worth addressing then we're going to get into this one from 4 hours ago Ed yarn Denny Ultra doish Cuts may be off the table after CPI report hm okay we'll get in that one Mike Wilson if you don't remember Mike Wilson we used to react to Mike Wilson quite a bit on this channel back in 2022 and 2023 and the reason was Mike Wilson was incredibly bearish incredibly bearish well I haven't seen Mike Wilson for a while right and so he would on Bloomberg here today Mike Wilson on the FED inflation artificial intelligence looking forward to getting into that one and then the man that used to be bull bearish way back in the day Mr Big Short Steve eisan he also went on NBC a few hours ago talking about what he expects a fed to do what he sees in the economy all those sorts of things so looking forward to reacting that one appreciate youall being here as always thank you for being subscribed by the way I forgot to mention we are now over 50,000 subscribers here on the reaction channel so I appreciate each and every one of you for being here it's been quite a climb over the past I think this channel is maybe 2 years old now so I appreciate yall being here p and comment about down there today I put together a brand new workshop for you guys I'm already thinking about next year 2025 put together a brand new workshop about what stocks to buy now for 2025 how to position your portfolio if you want that via email or text we can send it over either way let's get into this h he would come in like this on Friday paler uh was admitted to the S SMP which is an enormous momentous occasion for every palarian it is enormous because the way in which we built the company should have precluded membership to the most elite institution in economic life the S&P 500 in order to be on the S&P 500 you have to be Gap profitable which is a a financial way of saying you have to make real attendees subtracting everything after subtracting every form of renumeration that could possibly be included including your well-deserved equity and we did it and how did we do it we built the best products in the world we started off in one area of the West CL candescent Services we migrated into the military into spec ops into US commercial into us into commercial globally and how did we do that we built products first PD PG then we built Apollo then we built products for the spec ops then we built uh Maven then we built Foundry then we built the ant something very important I got to touch on here extremely important everybody understands this okay he's just running you through the product road map they've been on for the last you know 10 20 years right listen here's the deal there's going to be a lot more products coming over the next 5 10 years and we don't see today and that's what it's important everybody understands whenever you're thinking about owning paler stock or you own paler stock or you know you're considering it things like that there's going to be growth opportunities for this company in ways that we never could foresee as of today okay so that's something very important just like AIP is this big thing nowadays like 3 years ago 5 years ago you know no one was thinking about that right uh you know you could say foundaries this big product nowadays you know many years ago Foundry was nothing right so this is just something to keep in mind and uh we then integrated that into AIP all of these products were conceived and productized and now are being platform iiz meaning we are taking them and making them the base substrate of what Enterprises do I.E using us instead of what sometimes could be described as a a monster internally that prevents the use of the most important Technologies of our of our lifetime I.E Ai and large language models uh as an end user and these were conceived again and practised in some cases a decade before anyone else even thought that you would need them much less that the whole Enterprise would turn on a platform uh that actually could power Ai and large language models it still r iCal to the point where people do not completely comprehend they do not comprehend how we could have turned a switch and gone to Gap profitability and it and gone from what adults professional managers and some analysts thought was a Frankenstein monster powered by a freak show leader me to uh a a dynamic clearly profitable company worthy of and admitted to the S&P 500 and we did it our way while everyone is now running around talking about how they should build platforms how you should try to get palarian uh how realizing that no credible institution in commercial life can really be built without paler or an ex palarian um we had already begun this at the DPO we rejected Professional Management people everywhere discussing how to build companies in a way that keeps the somewhat if not uh uh toxic uh often carcinogenic uh uh uh influence of people who've written PowerPoints out of your company paler did this naturally our products reflect that our culture reflects it our Revenue perect reflects it our quality of Revenue uh affects it is a is reflects it and by the way our investor Class People Trend to use the term retail investor which is another way of saying people courage enough to invest their own money otherwise known as tendies in what they believe in and look at the list of the people our partners I hate the term clients but look at the list of people that use our product the most important clandestine Services the most important special operators the most important AI targeting work in the world the most important allies none of whom were ashamed to support in private or in public they on paler look at our list of commercial uh Partners in the in and outside the US but especially in the US that use paler either at Foundry the anology AIP all the above and are beginning and in some cases are already using uh our platform as a platform and then look at our structural Advantage you know the thing the thing I love about karp right is here he is he he makes a point he'll make a point and what's it he always bring it back to it never fails what's he always bring it back to the product the product the product the product and I just I appreciate that and I like that about him and um yeah man it always ends up coming back to the product he'll make a point and it's back to the product right having this a company built around what you ought to build not what you were told to build in some weird otherwise called uh artistic program that's kind of academic and imposed upon you by people that have no skin on the game we resisted that we are going to continue to resist that not just for our sake but for the sake of our partners that rely on us in any case everybody all of you who are inside the company and around the world should celebrate that the rebels won the rebels won on Friday I don't know any other occasion like this where the rebels actually got inside the gate and helped the institutions transform themselves and there's no better metaphor for that than being admitted to the S&P 500 and while it's maybe not the most important thing I am really really really happy uh because we did this we did this together and the future belongs to us so let's go have let's go attack have some fun and celebrate a momentous occasion thank you yeah so you know he is very happy and this is something carp's wanteded for I mean gosh when's the first time he mentioned S&P 500 inclusion it might have been two years ago now uh probably at least a year and a half ago he's wanted this for quite some time and so yeah I could see him being just as happy if not happier than probably anybody else out there just to be quite Frank with you guys right and uh I I think the main reason my personal belief is the main reason he's really wanted in S&P 500 over everything else is palente here does sell to a lot of big companies right and a lot of big government organizations and it is an extra boost in my opinion to your sales repertoire when you can go ahead and say you're an S&P 500 company right it's kind of like the Holy Grail right I mean some people would look at like the the fortune list Fortune 500 the S&P 500 if you're an S&P 500 company like you're seen as like the the crem delic creme right you're the best of the best like you've got products and services in the market that are special truly special right and so it just gives you an extra kind of leg up when it comes to sales and so do it here's a question for you does S&P 500 inclusion help only the stock or does it help the stock and the fundamentals of the company my personal belief is by getting in the S&P 500 it's mainly going to help with the stock but I believe it actually will help the fundamentals of the company cuz I believe now that they have this kind of branding there I do believe that there is a real power in being an S&P 500 company when you're selling to other big companies right or smaller companies that are in the SP 500 you're looked at like wow you're really like the cremee your products and services are special because usually you only get an SP 500 if you're truly a special company right so that's a little Foo of thought in regards to that edor Denny Ultra doish cutson Maybe off the table after CPI report what great to see you again I don't know if I agree with this thank you I know you've ridden last few days about expected chop in September you wrote about China uh last night but I wonder does this core CPI print uh should it be considered a threat to the doves well I think to the extent that there was some heightened expectations that there would be a 50 basis point cut in the FED funds rate uh next week which would be sort of the ultra doish position I think that's uh off the table now and I think you're more likely to see 25 basis points I shouldn't say it's off the table I don't I really don't know what the thinking of the FED is other than that they've uh certainly pivoted away from being concerned about inflation to being more concerned about keeping the unemployment rate down uh but the data today was pretty good uh take out rent and the uh headline inflation rate was 1.2% we've been talking about getting to this level for a few years we thought that it would come down so uh things are going right on inflation and I think the surprise is going to be that the economy is more resilient than people are thinking if that's true if you're wondering why was the stock market down so much earli this morning right and why did it come back my belief is the early drop cuz here's the thing when I before I went to bed last night Futures were already dropping big uh after what happened last night the debate right and uh you know the consensus certainly was was Harris won the debate and so being that the consensus was Harris won the debate you know people could view that as uh you know her odds of winning the election go up in that sort of situation right and so therefore the market has to price that in the market doesn't necessarily love some of her tax policies and those sorts of things right we know about that um and some of the changes she wants there and so the market was kind of pricing that in but then you got CPI and ultimately do I do I think the market took this CPI as a positive my belief is yes I think you know CPI coming in at uh you know 2.5 I believe the market liked this CPI report I believe this was a CPI report that you know months ago I called the the the dragon B Slade right in regards to inflation this was a sort of CPI report that if you were on the side if you were still like uncertain about inflation right this has to be the CPI report that just slays the dragon once and for all in your mind right like you if you're still worried about inflation at this point in time I don't know what to tell you like like you know look at what's going on in the Commodities market look where these Commodities have been heading the past year right look what you're seeing in all this different data if you don't like the government data go look at true inflation numbers right like you know there's just I think if you are still in the camp of like inflation is this big problem the FED has to worry about that I just think you're way off sides in regards to this that was like the game of a year ago two years ago uh we're on a new game now and the Fed number one focus and attention really has to be on the economy and employment market now at this point in time did you make the bank commentary yesterday and did that move the conversation meaningfully well Carl I I only listened to what supported my story the fellow from Bank of America Brian moan certainly was very positive on that Jamie Diamond's been kind of pessimistic about the Outlook since uh May of 2022 he's been a longtime pessimist but I think look you can't really generalize about the consumer uh we clearly have consumers that are struggling that uh maybe have maxed out on their credit cards but then we also have plenty of other consumers particularly the Baby Boomers let's say there's 70 million of them that have 78 trillion worth of assets a lot of them are retiring and that's why the savings rates down and they're spending money there's no doubt about it they don't have mortgages they don't have to pay for college education so I think it's a mixed story on the consumer and when you kind of add it all together and that social security has been getting bumped up right uh with all this inflation so that's true true true it still looks pretty good as you know the Atlanta fed estimate for consump consumption during the third quarter real consumption is 3 and a half% that's Gang Busters I'm I'm thinking of all the big things you've written about Ed in recent quarters uh namely the generational transfer wealth right which you've talked about the productivity progress we're making and the export of deflation out of China shouldn't those all be considered positives for the the US economy absolutely I think the US economy is the big winner here you know uh when the FED started raising interest rates in 2022 through 2023 uh it was logical to believe the tightening of monetary policy would cause a recession and uh the reality is there was a recession it was just happened to be in China they have a property depression and they're exporting deflation and that's one of the reasons that our CPI inflation rate has come down so rapidly is because able Goods inflation and we import a lot from China in that regard uh that's come down into deflation again uh so yeah absolutely all those things are good for the economy you might say why are some of these solar stocks bouncing big here today well you know why come on put the pieces together the debate last night right that's why you're seeing First Solar up big here today that's why you're seeing n phase up big here today and positive for the stock market Ed did you read the beige book I mean more more districts Contracting I mean also it it does job with some of the recent commentary I was looking at DAV Busters today not necessarily that that's the most indicative of the economy but tough kind of consumer environment many others are feeling the pressure uh Petco CFO choiceful and value there if you listen to companies and look at the an anecdotes it's full of weakness and softness on labor market on the consumer 100% and that's why the FED needs to get moving here 50 basis points you know everybody's acting like oh they got all this time in the world they got to get moving man they got to get moving a very good point it just seems that a lot of the survey sort of data has been more pessimistic than the actual data and it's the actual data that that matters I mean real GDP is running at 2 and a half% the actual data edar and Denny in all due respect sir when you say the actual data you C talking about the government number that we know they get screwed up all the time and they manipulate come on Ed I don't know during the current quarter and that's even with July being affected by the weather and as I said before the consumer is running as the Run rate is three and a half% in the in the third quarter so I I think that uh for some reason the surveys are picking up a more pessimistic tone than the data is actually reflecting initial unemployment claims remain extremely low uh you know everybody kind of got bummed out by the uh parall employment report uh for for August but actually the work week Rose and so aggregate hours worked was an alltime record high and I think retail sales are going to surprise to the upside as will personal income because uh not only did we have more people working an aggregate in terms of ours uh we also had a nice increase in in wages and to the point you made Sarah about real wages are absolutely up and L brard was absolutely correct and saying that can only happened with productivity doing well we'll see what retail sales brings us Ed interesting to get your forecast on that hopefully talk around that as well good to see you yeah so the bottom line is right now right look forward to getting into Mike Wilson I heard Mike Wilson talk in a while this is going to be interesting here Mr Mr was very very bearish over the last couple years but I I think he might be flipping so here's a deal okay CPI 2.5 fed funds rate where's that at 5.25 to 5.5 so have about 300 basis points right 300 basis points of too much just the fed's way too tight the fed's way too tight right now 300 basis points too tight that's an extreme amount in a perfect world you would say the FED should lower interest rates 300 basis points they should lower by three full percentage points now right they're not going to do that because that causes all types of Markus rate that would cause crazy volatility in the bond market and treasury markets and all those sorts of things they wouldn't do that right they're going to have to go over a course of 12 months or whatever right or 18 months but they have to get moving here do 50s 50s 50s why not like like if I if I could talk to Jerome pow right now and I could talk to all those fed people and they let me speak up at the table for two minutes I say why not just go 50s non-stop for the next several months what are you scared about and inflation that's not an issue we know that's not an issue CPI is at 2.5 commodity's Market's dead for the past year it's not doing a dang thing so that means that that bodess very well for next year's inflation numbers right what's the deal here right we know the employment picture is getting softer that's clear as day right we know companies for the most part have uh okay things to say or bad things to say right you're getting all the D to really kind of justify like we got to get moving here man to go 25 and then a 25 oh my gosh man it's going to take us 100 years to get these fed funds right down and the longer that takes the more damage you could cause to the economy and the more you're going to end up in a huge huge situation and then it's going to get ugly because then the fed's going to have to come in try to back stop everything the money print is going to go on right it's ugly so just get ahead of that you know they go 50s right off the bat here you know 50 50 to end the year 100 basis points and then keep it moving in 2025 Mike Wilson on the FED inflation artificial intelligence eastern time for clues about how much the FED will cut rates this time next week concerns lingering over whether the central bank has waited too long Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley writing until the bond market starts to believe the FED is no longer behind the curve growth data reverses course and improves materially or additional policy stimuluses introduced it will be difficult for Equity markets to trade with a more risk on tone Mike is with us around the table Mike good morning to you sir good morning how are you I want to pick up on that quote and we're doing great I want to pick up on a line that you're focused on the difference between fed funds and the front end of the yeld curve fed funds in a twoe and that quote how important is that well that's a signal that we're getting from the bond market the bond market has historically been a pretty good indicator of where the FED is relative to kind of what they need to be doing and we saw this by the way on the upside too right in the 2021 time frame the two-year got ahead on the upside so it's the same picture just on the other side and and you know people complain oh they don't complain they say look at the stock market is is behaving fine but that's not true internally once again you know defensive stocks are really doing extremely well so I think the B I think the stock market is taking its cues from what the bond market is saying it's not saying hard Landing yet what it's saying is that growth has continued to disappointed so since April we've been on this program many times since then I would say the the the the data has been you know distinguishingly negative in terms of growth data also the labor Daya has been much worse so how has the equity Market dealt with that well it's pivoted from what I call Quality growth to Quality defensives we made that pivot in in in May and that's classic late cycle Behavior so I think everything kind of sinks it's just we're waiting for the you know like can somebody give us the keys to the test you know the cliff notes whatever it is like how's this going to end and we don't know ask you thank you I'm going to ask you basically you've said we need one or two things either the FED Cuts aggressively or the labor market starts to improve and improve quickly for Equity markets to perform well so have you got a base case is it one or the other do we get one or the other well what I would say is that the FED could get ahead of the curve they decide but the problem they're constrained okay they're constrained by two things not inflation by the way inflation's over as far as I'm concerned inflation they they thank you Mike Wilson thank you Mike Wilson we might not agree on a lot last uh you know year or two but hey we definitely agree on that that what there with the issue is now is the currency Market if they come in and start cutting aggressively the the Yen dollar relationship is going to create some stress so they they got to be careful with that the other thing I would throw out there is we've looked at this when the FED starts a cutting cycle with 50 basis points as opposed to 25 the chance of a soft Landing goes down materially and they know this they know this data they don't want to signal that so they're they're in a tough spot the fed's in a difficult spot they've done a they've done a you know a good job of trying to navigate this you know challenging different environment that we've been in for the last several years but now the markets are pressing them and so next week I don't really care what they do next week what I care about is how the markets react how do the markets behave after they've done they're going to do 25 probably and then what do they say in the press conference The Vibes whether they actually work for the market or not I'm curious though before we go into quality growth and quality defensive and what that actually means you said something about the currency differential are there certain Target levels that you see sort of unwinding some of the Longs that still remain out there do you have a a sense of just how disruptive the ongoing long tra so I mean yeah you can say there's there's risk to doing a 50 right off the bat there's so much risk to doing a 25 including to Jerome Po's Legacy if they could do 25 and we get the big recession everybody is going to be looking at that and saying dude you had all the signs inflation was dead the labor market was starting to face weakening you had a lot of companies complaining about their businesses weren't strong and you went 25 off the go when was a 300 basis point gap between fed funds and where CPI was like like boy that's going to be rough right that's going to make the FED look really bad at least if they get out here and start it with a 50 right off the bat then you could say okay the fed's serious about getting these rates lower 25 is you know it's just signaling like yeah you know we got all the time in the world and then all of a sudden you know it proves not to be right and then you look really wrong dollar really will be potentially down the road I mean I don't have a specific level but I do feel like they're trying to defend this low 140s level between Yen dollar so call 142 if we start to you know 130ish you know 138 139 I think that could cause some stress in other markets meanwhile you talk about shifting from quality growth to Quality defensive I've struggled with these uh monikers quite a bit simply because what does defensive what does growth mean where does Nvidia fit into this where does the tech trade go given the fact that people have gotten an AI trade that is so inflated in terms of expectations and uh and timing what does that mean to you quality defensive you know defensives are your classic defensive sectors whether it's utilities Staples healthc care things that are positively correlated to bonds okay they they and they did not trade well by the way up until sort of April it was really the quality growth stocks now the other thing that's happened is the AI dream has t you know a little bit of that luster has come off and I really gauge that by what semiconductors are doing it's not just Nidia it's it's semic is r large and a lot of those stocks have really come off and that makes sense to me I mean just we just got overcooked on the whole AI theme doesn't mean it's over we've WR about this extensively like we're not Believers that this is going to change productivity materially in the short term that's a long-term story and everything kind of got bit up on that so with that that theme now gone the market is looking for a new theme on a gross side there isn't one so what it does is it hunkers down into defensive highquality assets until we get the next thing whether that's a bad outcome or or a positive outcome they're going to hide out in these areas Mike you say inflation's over we do have CPI data though today so I'm curious to know how do you think the market would trade if we get say a hotter print say it's is it too volatile or softer print would the market start pricing in 50 or look at a sof print and say wow we are cooling down faster than even the Fed was expecting and bad news really is bad news yeah well when I said inflation is over I mean the rate of change on inflation is over and it's kind of over for Equity markets and quite frankly it's over for the Fed where inflation is not over is the price level right the price level is absolutely squeezing the heck out of businesses and consumers and so it's like a vice and so I don't think inflation is over in that regard but what I would say is that you know a hot number I think is probably pretty bad for the stock market today I'm not expecting that but if if we got a hot number today then all of a sudden the FED is going to stay behind the curve they're kind of stuck if we get a if we get a really soft number then we go back to our old thesis which is pricing power is gone okay so we kind of need to thread the need here a little bit too I mean break evens are at 2% now break so what are we talking about we're already at 2% and it's not like these things stop on a dime they have a you know there's a risk that we undershoot on the downside that's good for bonds and it's bad for stocks typically and by the way that's how the stock market that's how the markets are trading so I think I think the markets already understand all of this once again they're going to do something next week to try and you know manage the situation 25 is what we think and they'll signal for more 25s not 50s and then what do they do with the balance sheet I think that's probably the bigger wild card do they do they talk more aggressively about ending QT more more quickly do they find other other Provisions to provide liquidity that's the bull case in my view that's where we could be surprised on the upsite is there more liquidity coming into the system from other sources and after yeah because the FED has been reducing their balance sheet considerably for really uh honestly it's been about two years now at this point in time or so uh they've brought it down by last time I checked it was at least a couple trillion dollars everyone's going to really be focused on the US election Goldman Sachs RBC they talk about how earnings will be much higher potentially under Trump Administration if he gets his tax cut plan rather than Harris who's calling for 28% how do you view next year earnings growth based on these two proposals assuming that the economy is in a soft Landing okay that the FED hasn't overstate its welcome and and by the way I think that risk is still on the table you we're in the soft Landing camp but it's that to me is way more important than the outcome of this election in the ne 6 to 12 months so let's assume we're in a soft Landing um our views the same we think that basically Trump is kind of PR growth kind of bad for bonds good for stocks okay and that's how we would look at it and by the way last night when the uh debate was going on wait wait wait say that again election in the ne next 6 to 12 months so let's assume we're in a soft Landing um our views the same we think that basically Trump is kind of prog growth kind of bad for bonds good for stocks okay and that's how we would look at it and by the way last night when the uh debate was which means exactly the opposite would happen the betting markets kind of went in favor of Harris and the stock market futures kind of traded out a little bit okay but I do think the stock market is more Pro Trump I mean the stock market has traded better when his odds go up and vice versa so bonds are good under Harris and stocks are bad under Harris in theory I mean like at the margin I would say that's the setup and the reason being is is really taxes tax taxes is the one thing and that requires some Congressional support too but to me that's the big issue not tariff so much both administrations have tariffed um and then immigration I think both parties are going to have to deal with that in some way so taxes is the issue obviously Trump is talking about cutting Paris is talking about raising them that's bad for stocks good for bonds wanted to ask you this question I want to squeeze it so Trump isn't necessarily great for the market and and I think that's what investors got to understand um you know people could make a uh like a argument that Trump's great for the economy right or for jobs or for the average person things like that like if you want to make that argument you can but I can tell you have somebody that experienced the Trump presidency in the market the full time with a lot of money invested right he's not always good for the market there's a lot of different reasons for that he's very volatile we all know that right uh and so he can you know flip and change his mind on something real quick and it cause a lot of volatility in the market right he can do tariffs trade Wars those sorts of things caused a lot of disruptions in regards to a lot of big global companies and that creates volatility in regards to their stock prices in regards to their business models it creates disruptions and those sorts of things and so you got to understand like in Trump's first uh term he got the the 15 percentage Point drop in corporate tax rates that's not coming in his if he gets a second term that's not coming he's he's not going to be able to even touch corporate taxes this time around so you got to understand 14 percentage points of Trump's gains in the stock market when he was presidency was just from getting uh at least 14 percentage points was just from getting corporate taxes down from 35% to 21% that's not happening again right and so when I look out there I know a lot of people are like really excited they think the stock market's going to Boom under Trump and I'm just here to tell you like you know don't get don't get too excited about that okay um as a lot of people get too sad and disappointed over certain presidents they think oh the stock market's going to do horrible like a lot of people could have thought the stock market would be trash under Biden right stock market's done pretty dang good under him right and so a lot of people you know people run to these conclusions with just not understanding like what's actually going on underneath uh the market and the surface in regards to these sorts of situations so you know don't don't get too bullish don't get too bearish on who's going to be president or who's not going to be president Lisa was knocking on the door are utilities actually defensive they're up like 20% this year the issue is people get so emotional when it comes to politics right U you know I I'm able to not get emotional cuz I don't vote but so many other people they vote so they get so emotionally attached and it's like rooting for their football team or their basketball team and they think like we're going to win every game right and they think the other team's the devil and they're always they're the worst right and um and allow and that emotion then overflows into their opinion on how they're feeling about investing in the stock market and all sorts of things and dud anytime you are wrapping up your emotions with stock market or anytime you're even thinking about like a pres This president's going to be good or bad you're already lost in regards the stock market I could promise you as somebody that's been doing this 16 years I think that was one of the points I made in that that great video I released what last week on the main Channel what was it called U 16 years stock market device in 52 minutes right I think it was one of the points like if you ever you're lost if you're making your investment decisions based upon who might be president or who might not be president or who's going to be president and who's not going to be president like trust me it doesn't doesn't work the way you think it works I trust me feel like everyone's getting whatever they want from utilities it's defensive it's attached to AI what are utilities so this is a very interesting question so you know we we agree I mean we we don't think we were one of the first ones to talk about utilities as an AI beneficiary back in February March I think that's probably got a little over done to be to be honest but now utilities are definitely trading with the bond market so they are the defensive properties of utilities are I think dominating their performance in the near- term here's the here's the interesting about ities their balance sheets are typically are not great okay so you got to be really careful with utilities if it's going to be hard Landing these things are going to start trading really poorly so I would caution listeners if utility start trading really poorly and the stock market's not ripping that's a bad sign that would be a sign that oh we are actually getting closer to potentially hard Landing risks that's hasn't happened yet but you know if you look at things like low volatility parts of the of the stock market or defensive they've gone almost parabolic and if they start to sell off hard without a stock market rally then I get concerned about hard Landing risk that's not the case today interesting I already Mike Wilson Mike Wilson's a little bit more playing it I would still say after watching that do I still feel like Mike Wilson's more of a bear than a bull I would say yes I feel like he's still more on the bearish side than the bullish side but I will say he's much more even Keel compared to how he was certainly in 2022 2023 when I would react to his videos uh fed will cut rates by 25 base points next week Mr uh Mr The Big Short here Steve eisan everything with the big short long ahead of time was able to see what was happening Steve we come to you on a lot of issues because you have been so incredibly right on some of the bets you've made where do you think things stand right now for the financials because it does feel like a little bit of inflection point we heard from Bank of America yesterday saying that things look pretty good but you also heard from Jamie Diamond saying that there could be some concerns out there on the broader Spectrum you haven't been worried about the banks in a while you still feel that way from a systemic perspective systemic perspective not been buying Banks but you have not from a systemic perspective I lose absolutely no sleep about the banks they extr they're extremely well capitalized they're far better run they understand their risk better than they ever have um so and there's nothing to worry about with respect to the banks so I will say I trust Steve eisman's judgment immensely in regards to a subject like the banks if there's one man who really understands uh who is not technically a banker right but really understands the business and the books of these guys if Steve Eisman says there there's no issues with the banks like uh I'll take him as his word of that right and when I look at the banks I would say for the most part no even in a recession like sure they' all get hit but there's not like that that sort of um out of control nature to them like there was maybe in 07 08 09 right in kind of what we went through in regards to that so yeah I think that's fair to invest them is another story yeah you didn't like them a year ago that's good point to invest in them is a different story feeling about them now I I don't think there's a story with respect to the banks I mean I I find them to be trading vehicles um people use them as a a means to express how they feel about the economy you know right now what's facing the banks is the fed's going to cut rates and that's going to hurt net interest margins which is what JP Morgan said yesterday credit quality is getting slightly worse on the margin which is what allies said and people got hysterical and took the stock down over 20% um but I I there's no story with respect to the banks right now if it's a trading vehicle and JP Morgan shares were down $111 on concerns about net interest income is that an opportunity to buy in on a trading um moment you know this is what I don't do I I don't trade so if there's a long-term story I'll own it um there's I don't think there's great long-term stories generally in the in the financial sector there are few you know here and there like you can own Visa long term because it's a great business um there's there's no great story in the banks right now one way or the other what do you anticipate from the FED next week if it doesn't matter fin for financials it does matter beyond that I actually think it there's reality and there perception and I mean I think people spend a lot of time trying to figure out what the fed's going to do my guess is the Fed will cut 25 basis points and that'll be fine um that it's important on the margin it's certainly important on fed day I don't think it's really that important for a long-term investors we were talking in the commercial break ahead of time about your prediction that Donald Trump was going to win you came out with that prediction a while ago I said that 100% certainty 100% certainty it was days before Joe Biden stepped out of the race so in my own defense I will say that I made that prediction before the first debate between Trump and Biden um I felt very strongly about it I that prediction was looking really good after the debate and I withdraw it um you know I did not anticipate that a sitting president of the United States was going to drop out of out of the race it's never happened before I think the election is a tossup I mean if I had to St my life on it I would say still probably Trump wins because he'll win Pennsylvania um but it's it's too hard to tell yeah that's that's exactly what I would say it's really really dang close and you know that's why it's always dangerous to assume like you know you got something in the bag cuz then something happens that you never saw coming right and it's just like what we're going to follow up you got a lot of question and I and I owe you an apology uh because the last time I was the last time I was on I have no idea where you're going I'm SC I know you don't um the last time I was on you pressed me about the fact that the lowend consumer is having problems and I gave you very short shift about it because I didn't think it was important with respect to the market one of the so okay let me just think back on on times you've blown me off no I can't narrow it down um it was the last time I was here no I'm kidding no I remember that yeah you know you and the reason why I gave you short shrift because nobody's asked me about the lowend consumer in since 2008 they should have extended that I was actually interested to see where he was going to take that uh in regards to lowend Consumer nobody's asked me about that since 2008 where was he going with that man like why they shut it off right there like that that was about to get really really intriguing I think we were going to get a better view into his mind there and maybe put some pieces together that's disappointing man that's disappointing I would have loved to see that play out and see where that was going to to go they had a they had a good moment there man but they lost it all right guys appreciate you joining me as always thanks so much for being here if you want my brand new workshop I made for you guys last week stocks to buy now for 2025 how to position your portfolio now for 2025 check out the pin comment down there enter in to get that Workshop via email or text we'll send it on over much love and have a great day