Why Republicans should LOVE Trump's polling numbers right now

all right guys so I saw this tweet that was in regards to the general election head-to-head polls that say Harris plus one Harris plus two Harris plus three why are conservatives encouraged by those polls well it's for a number of reasons and and this is a good point here you can see I've seen some Libs ignorantly wonder why conservatives celebrate polls with Harris up by one or two just a general head-to-head election the below is why hope this helps the electoral college has been a thing all this time and so but it's not just because of the Electoral College weight if you will which we're going to talk about the the actual math behind all of this and why come on I mean we saw it with Biden he won by four and a half and barely won I mean Joe Biden could have won the popular vote by four points and lost the election now of course liberals will be pissed off and say that's why the Electoral College sucks that that's another story for another day we we do need the Electoral College otherwise you're going to have states that let's be honest have not been very good decision makers in terms of their local state politics like California New York that's why people are fleeing those States they would have enormous immense say with their Lifestyles over what the country gets in terms of a political leader it would be I mean New York and California their weight in terms of just a pure popular vote election would be so massive it would really hurt and and and and even when you talk about the Electoral College it's not like North and South Dakota are getting 10 electoral votes or anything like that they're still getting a very small amount but there is a reason we have it obviously that's another story for another day the multiple reasons why if I see a CALA Trump head-to-head poll with Camala up by two or three it's encouraging for Trump number one point blank period the polls have been ridiculously inaccurate in the past in both of Trump's election Cycles 2016 and 2020 in 2016 I think the popular vote it was a little bit closer but it still overestimated Hillary by I think a point and a half and then 2020 it was crazy Biden in terms of an aggregate just head-to-head based on real Clair politics which they only take the the really good pollsters or at least the normally the really good pollsters that have a decent rating into their Aggregate and into their overall average Biden led by 7.2 in terms of the popular vote so for that to be 100% accurate Biden would have had to have won the election in terms of the popular vote by 7.2 points he won by 4.5 so Trump outperformed that by almost three total points in terms of popular vote so that's number one why if you were Republican you should be very encouraged if you get a head-to-head pure popular vote poll that has Harris up by two or three because number one Trump already outperforms those we've seen him do it in 2016 and 2020 not to mention all the swing state polls especially when you look at the Rust Belt with Wisconsin Trump outperforming those polls he's outperformed so many polls in Florida in both 2016 and 2020 North Carolina is another state Trump polls a lot better in or excuse me he he he does a lot better in than the polls indicate and then you've also got this meth and so you can see how big is the electoral college bias well this shows you if Camala Harris wins let's just say by half a point or one point in terms of the popular vote just the popular vote Donald Trump I think would probably have 100% chance to win now this model I don't agree with 100% just because based off of where we're at right now in terms of what the swing states are because if you factor everything and you and you weigh everything you could say and and really argue if if camalo wins by three points in terms of the popular vote I would say Trump probably has like a 60% chance to win because of how close these margins are and how much they run up in California and New York now this you know you can see this has it at an 88% chance 89% chance if the margin for Cala is between three and four points Trump only has a 10% chance I would disagree with that I think if if she wins by three and a half again Biden won by just over four points and he nearly lost the election he was within 40,000 votes in key swing States and that was an election that dragged on for days and Trump was up and the betting odds late in the night on Election night had Trump minus 600 to win at one point so it wasn't like that was an easy election for Biden to win that was a very close election in a few key swing States so that's why if you do get polls that have Camala Harris up by two three even four based on how they already underestimate Trump the these are really good numbers and then obvious obviously if Trump wins by you know half a point to a point I remember the narrative back in 2016 there were liberals saying well Hillary can win the election but lose the popular vote just with the election Dynamics that's changed completely I mean if Trump wins the popular vote I'd say he's got 100% chance to win the election just in general and then obviously if he wins by more it's easier for conservatives to where Trump can lose the popular vote because of how ridiculous the margins are in New York and California he can lose the popular vote I think by three or four points and still win certainly if he loses it like if you get a poll that has Harris up by one and a half or two I think he's probably got like a 75 80% chance just based off of where we're at right now in terms of the electorate with all of these states being so so ridiculously close they're going to run up huge numbers in the big population areas like Illinois California and what have you and obviously if this were to change if you wanted the rating to change and and maybe like the Democrats could win the Electoral College without winning the popular vote that would mean that Trump would be way more competitive in California they would not be able to run up big margins so the margin in California would be a lot smaller but the Democrats would still take all those electoral votes because they'd win the state Trump would you know squeeze Illinois maybe she only wins it by Five Points he would bring down the margin in New York and then he would very narrowly lose the all of the the big swing States so then hypothetically if Trump was able to bring those margins down he could win the popular vote and then lose the electoral college but based on where we're at right now with the ridiculous margins in the major swings in in the major population hubs especially Illinois New York although New York and Illinois are kind of coming down a little bit California uh you know it's going to be very hard for Trump to I I actually I think Trump can still win the popular vote but it's just a dynamic where if the Liberals lose the popular vote it's very very basically impossible for them to win the election based on how it is right now and then you just look at this update and it's unfortunate because the main uh for forter that I liked they're behind a pay wall now maybe I should pay for it's like I I I mean normally those pay walls are like a dollar or whatever to go on these sites but it it is like like 25 bucks per month but no no no I should pay it I know but you can see this is another one this is just a forecaster this is a decent one it's got Trump at a 46% chance certainly I think Trump's got a way higher chance than that but if you're factoring in all the polls I can understand having it as like a 50-50 race right now it's certainly a lot better than 538 and the polls that they take but you can just see all the important States Arizona and Nevada these states are just virtually 50/50 right now they do give Harris a higher chance in the three rust Bel States I would disagree with that especially for Pennsylvania based on recent polling I think Trump leads in Pennsylvania I would probably give him like a 60 to 65% chance I think the betting has Trump as the favorite right now in Pennsylvania Michigan I could certainly see Harris as the favorite based off a recent polling Wisconsin I would have about 5050 in terms of that that's interesting they have that District in uh main as a trump lean considering the recent poll we got out of there but you can see obviously Trump started with a big lead we had the Harris kind of Boogeyman hype what whatever you want to call it I mean there's just so much Ridiculousness about it and now she's finally doing an interview with uh with Tim Walls she can't do a solo interview she has and it's on CNN of course but uh either way you can just look at the update maybe Trump gaining a little ground to me this is pretty much meaningless if we went into an election night and the forecaster had Harris at a 54% chance I think Trump wins 100 times out of 100 it's based off how Trump has performed in 2016 and 2020 against the polls just the just the net head-to-head polls and also the swing state polls Trump always overperforms those as we've seen but then you could see I mean Pennsylvania I would say by far is the most important state 20% Tipping Point which is basically means it is very important North Carolina Liberals are trying to put North Carolina back into play obviously that's a state that is very important for Trump I'm interested to see what do they think about Virginia here um yeah so it has moved a little bit the last time I saw this this forecaster they've got it down to a 77% chance I think it was at 83 or 85 so there have been some recent plls there and I think Trump's going to get so much momentum in Virginia and kind of like the Liberals like oh North Carolina's this huge swing state I think Republicans can do the exact same thing with Virginia and I mean to be fair North Carolina's been very close the last two election Cycles but based on the internal numbers things look a lot better for trump it would be very surprising if Trump lost North Carolina based off of all the internal data points we have they're all better for Trump than they were in 2020 and 2016 and Trump won North Carolina both of those times it was very close especially in 2020 only winning it by about a point and a half but he still won it both times so Trump if he can make Virginia a tossup I mean that's going to help him so much in terms of these overall numbers because that's just another Avenue for him and I do think we will see these states shift back and forth I do think this is really good right now they have Harris winning the popular vote by about one and a half which I I mean I guess you could say based on the forecast it's it's it's it is what it is I still think Trump's going to win the popular vote Maybe by like half a point at this point um but you can see the most important States Florida and Texas obviously are going to Trump uh but you do have all these important states there there yeah Virginia might move up depending on if we get more polling see they've got a margin of 6.3 right now I mean based off the last two polls based off of trump GNA be in Virginia I think Trump needs to have a massive rally in Virginia with yunan with how liked yunan is just there's some very very good polls out of Virginia especially when it comes to the approval rating oh I guess maybe not I guess I guess she's actually gone up in terms of it I don't know I don't know where she's get where they're getting this in terms of I mean like the last three polls have been very very close so you would think the numbers would come down in terms of you know chances of her winning this state based on two straight poll within the margin decided by three I don't know if they factored that in or not so that that is that is kind of surprising but I would say Virginia is a state that if Trump can put it in play uh it just becomes that much more important Minnesota I think's probably definitely going to go to the Democrats at this point Nevada is important but it is only six electoral votes I mean that could be the decider I mean that's a 12-point swing if Trump can win it and not give it to Kamal that's TW you know in terms of laor votes that's 12 votes because it's taking six away from her and giving six to him so it is still very important taking back Georgia is important I mean Trump has if he can win Virginia he's got so many options you win Pennsylvania you Wing Georgia the election's over just because you've got Florida and Texas and again this is another thing they're doing they're trying to make Texas this swing state because there's some recent polls that have it close polling Texas is very hard I think Trump's going to win Texas by a bigger margin than he did in 2020 eight or nine points possibly which is what the Republicans really need to do based off of the dialogue surrounding Texas in terms of oh they think they can make it this swing state and they think it's going to be you know a Democrat remember they were saying that 2016 as long as you need to stretch the lead back out because it has been getting closer 2012 2016 2020 the margins by getting closer in Texas you need to stretch that back out even with all the the the people moving in from California and these liberal states it seems like Texas has been able to withstand it and and they're still pretty conservative you would hope because that's obviously extremely important um I would say definitely this election cycle 100% chance Trump's going to win it there's no doubt about that but just in general I do think this is a good kind of map and gauge to where if Harris in terms of these General polls is up by two three four or even Five Points it based off of how Trump overperforms the head-to-head General popular vote we've seen it happen in 2016 and 2020 if you get a poll with Harris up by two it's perfect you're perfectly happy if you are a trump supporter head-to-head match up with Harris up to people don't really understand well why would you be happy if it has her winning well no it has her winning it's a poll number one which underestimates Trump already and it has her winning the popular vote uh not the Electoral College so if she wins by two points in terms of let's say it's 49 to 47% I think 100% chance Trump wins the vote alignment and how it's spread out Trump would have to perform way better in California basically for Harris to win I know it seems confusing but because of the margin that she wins California by it over inflates her popular vote numbers which in turn makes it easier for Trump to win the election even if he loses the popular vote by three points or even three and a half points I think there still has a chance he could win based off of what we saw in 2020 with Biden winning by over four and nearly losing the election but I think it's going to be a lot closer than that that's why it's so hard to see Harris winning this election as long as we get it's just so important because the states are decided by like 40,000 votes but you've got Biden who was pulling astronomically better astronomically better than Harris is right now and he wins the election by 40,000 votes that alone along with Trump's better approval rating along with you know some people having some Nostalgia about Trump we see how bad the inflation is there's just so much in Trump's favor going into this election obviously we've still got a lot of stuff you've got the debates that are going to be you know very important at least for setting the narrative considering Harris has made the debates more important because she won't do interviews so now it's like the debate's huge and she's flip-flopping on everything and her AIDS have to come out and anonymously leak it to all these news sites and say oh she's now she wants the wall now she doesn't want to ban fracking now she doesn't want to take away Private health care um this is absurd so this is why it's so hard to see I mean we can do all these numbers and there're these are just models and they factor in polls and if there's a poll that says Harris is up they're going to impute that and say Harris has a better chance of winning but when we take all of the narratives at Play It's it would just be shocking if Trump lost this election shocking and they'll break out and they'll blame Russia that's fine but I mean there's just so much that's positive in comparison to 2020 for Trump in terms of internal numbers in terms of polls in terms of where we're at right now as a country um the only thing that's really negative and and what happen was Harris's approval rating going up significantly which I did not expect goes to show you and and I mean they're just the total I mean those people I I don't know I I don't understand how and people may say well it's it's fake and I agree I don't think her approval rating is plus two two now but to go from minus 14 to whatever it is I mean it might have went up by 10 points just because of mainstream propaganda I mean that's basically it so uh that is unfortunate but even still if she's at like minus four Trump's at minus 7 Trump's got a huge Advantage remember Trump was like minus 13 in terms of approval Biden was plus five he still nearly won the election so that's an 18-point difference now it's like a three-point difference imagine what's going to happen but either way guys that is going to do it for this video make sure you follow me on X link to that's always in the description