Josh Pate's Oklahoma Win-Loss Prediction + Big Questions (Late Kick Cut)

what is Oklahoma going to do this year what's their final record going to be I have some thoughts here here's what you need to know over under wi total seven and a half tough schedule really tough schedule we'll get to that in a little while they have the eighth best odds to win the SEC throw the ball out there and let's play that's essentially the attitude around the Oklahoma fan base and the program Brent Venable's third year here okay so with odds sandwiched between that of Missouri and Auburn to win the SEC what do I think I know about this team I think I know defense needs to be the identity of this team you're telling me I got Brent Venable's third year in and they've recruited top 10 classes every year they've portal in the top 10 every year that means you've got your players there three years in is plenty long enough for you to have your thumb print Therefore your identity to be the identity of your team this should be a defensive oriented team this year they've got 11 of their top 13 tacklers back should be a defensive oriented team this year and I think it will be I'm not saying that uh defiantly I think it will be Gavin Sawchuk I think I know could be one of the breakout players of the Year nationally now he broke out last year he had a stretch of five straight 100 yard games I think last year Health has been a little bit of an issue for him he's the running back there by the way uh if that guy's healthy for a majority of this year Gavin Sauk is the kind of kid who doesn't enter the preseason conversation for leading the conference in rushing but could be right there in November and the third thing I think I know is Oklahoma has that stuff about it that's kind of hard to quantify I don't even bother with it I just know there's some programs that have the right thing when you cut that program open and Oklahoma's had that Oklahoma's got it Oklahoma's had it so here's what I want to know about Oklahoma what level of offensive line play is it fair for me to expect I don't expect Elite I don't expect really good so I'm starting with the ceiling at above average and I think the worst case scenario is it's horrific what's fair to expect that's that's a question I don't have an answer for you that's a question uh the offensive line returns zero starters we all know that it's August everyone knows that by now um injuries have been a bit of an issue out there there's a lot of uncertainty about how many ERS they'll even have from an inexperienced group as they head into week one uh another question quarterback is Jackson Arnold the man he was brought in there to be the man first full year as a starter coming up this year uh very very limited sample size the bowl game he turned the ball over spring turnovers were an issue as fall Camp has gone on the Intel I've gotten is it's looked better and better on that front so fingers crossed on that front because obviously I mean they had some games last year where they turned it over and they lost they had some games where they didn't turn it over and they won I know that's a shocking statistic to hear but it is the most important stat in all of football but I love the mix they have at wide receiver both the portal guys and the guys that are already there and still there so if they can take advantage of that now obviously all this works in conjunction I I need to have him protected and then I need to have him make good decisions but if we have that they got the tail back they've got good collection of talented wide receiver it could all fall into place that's why this team shouldn't just be forgotten about there's some ifs here but shouldn't be forgotten about third thing I need to know is is this defense just pretty good or is it like a wrecking crew of a defense is it the kind of defense that can take over games because they're hoping it's the ladder they're hoping that they've got a crew out there Havoc rate turnovers defensive score non-offensive touchdowns it's the kind of defense that frankly Brent vbl was able to put on the field at Clemson he was able to do that because of the kind of guys they had up front they're building that kind of depth now those those Clemson defensive lines were Elite and I don't know that they're at that level maybe they're not far off maybe they're not they got a ton of confidence that they know something the rest of the country doesn't know in Norman about that defense I don't doubt that how good are they is it over the top good is is it good enough to wreck a game the coaching staff here we got all of them graded head coach coordinators support staff uh Brent venables is only entering year three so we like to have three years on a head coach before we grade him so there's an incomplete grade on Brent venables you can think about him whatever you want to Seth Latrell is the offensive coordinator there we got him graded as a solid four-star offenseive coordinator pass heavy systems been pass heavy in the past is that the way they operate this year I'd be surprised if they do try and operate that way is that the best course of action given the conference they in now we'll see I tend to believe he knows more about it than I do uh Zack allly is a three and a half star defensive coordinator according to our numbers so Brent venables is also one of the most elite DCS that we've graded in the past 15 years I mean like Kirby smarts way up there Brent venables is like in that category the defensive support staff is top 25 on this team the offensive support staff's top 45 so not an elite offensive support staff there not bad it just not Elite and again that stuff changes year-over-year the schedule's brutal they play six teams in the preseason top 15 they got Tennessee and Auburn a two-e stretch here week four week five Tennessee comes in there into Norman Josh hpel returned to Norman then they go to Auburn the very next week you could sell me on them going 0 and2 you could sell me on them going 2- 0 I think most people would just choose to split it and go one in one uh that will determine the trajectory of the rest of their season well they got Texas but there's a byee before Texas so those two games there will tell you a lot but also think about this they've got a road game against Old Miss the 26th of October Old Miss is off a buy they got a road game against Missouri the 9th of November Missouri is off a buy so there are no favors whatsoever dealt to Oklahoma here their best case record this year I think is 10- two that would involve offens line playing above average CU I think that's the ceiling of that unit that would involve turnovers not being a big issue for Jackson Arnold that would involve injury not being a concern for them candidly it would probably involve a couple of teams on their schedule not living up to preseason expectation and I think they could go 10- two I think their worst case given the schedule and the uncertainty on the o line is five and seven they absolutely if you've got those kind of concerns and this kind of schedule there's a world the bottom falls out of the final record you got to acknowledge that that's before we even talk about injury you got to acknowledge that I uh and the model agrees with this I got Oklahoma going eight and four right now as their most likely record but look I got them power rated number 12 so it's not that I think they're a bad team you're not always what your record says you are eight and four are you think in your mind Fringe top 25 team maybe it's not the way I see the team I see a number 12 team playing a really tough schedule and therefore my most likely record for them is 8 and four [Music]