271: The Electoral Landscape Past & Present with Dr. Whit Ayres & Dr. Lindsay Chervinsky |...

hello and welcome to politics war room with James Carell and I'm Al hunt this week Our Guest are prominent Republican poster Whit SS and the executive director of The George Washington Presidential Library Lindsay trinsky now remember we love taking your questions so write into politics wroom atgmailcom or send a tweet to ticon for next week's show we're going to get to as many as we can but don't forget to tell us where you're from now before we get started get out your calendars get them out right now we have exciting news James and I are taking politics war room on tour so come see us live at the 92nd Street Y in New York City on September 19th with Senator Bill Bradley NBA great and has a wonderful documentary be a fascinating conversation in Atlanta on October 12th October 12th Atlanta that is at the Variety Playhouse or Boston's Schubert theater on November 2 get tickets at pon.com SL tour and we can't wait to see you there now get text updates about what's next for politicon and politics War Room by signing up at pon.com and tell your friends about us remind them to subscribe on Apple podcast Spotify or wherever you get your podcast and please check out the links to our sponsors zbiotics mintmobile and 3-day blinds we thank you for supporting these sponsors it really helps make this podcast happen all right James we have a really interesting guest Whit A's Republican poster coming up to talk about the state of the race and all that but there are number of things that happened I mean the Arlington Cemetery incident despite Trump's effort to lie about it and get people to lie for him hasn't gone away he really did uh stomp on Hallowed Ground and it was interesting that this week Jimmy McCain a 17-year veteran and the son of John McCain came out for kamla Harris and said and noted that he has three ancestors his father his grandfather and his great-grandfather her buried at Arlington uh and it was outrageous that Donald Trump uh treated hollowed ground that way uh I didn't think it was going to become a big issue I don't think it's going to become a defining issue but I don't think it's going to go away either well okay I think for to leave it alone not that it's not a disgrace it is he's already said this soldiers are sucker why we about to do that and and his photos don't care and that you said look the fames wanted this and every minute you're talking about that you're not talking about his abortion boat in Georgia true I mean look is it is it an outrage but there's been so many outrages that don't matter that any other person wouldn't couldn't remotely sustain this no other person would actually say would tell General Kelly that soldiers are suckers or would say his son's grave site so of all of the egregious things that he's done Visa the military this just kind of medium but we just we got him on the run on this Florida vote and he doesn't like it and it it we got to be careful not to go for new shiny things here I know it's outrage and people should be outraged about it but that's not where we're going to win this election we're going to win this election on the whole question of you know Reproductive Rights I you know I think you're right uh but I think I still think there is a I don't know a second tier basket if you will not just of Arlington but of Arlington telling his own chief of staff that fallen soldiers were suckers and losers deme denigrating demeaning John McCain who was a war hero and saying the other day that you know really Medal of Honor winners uh they're dead so you know that's the I think you put that all together it's not like abortion it's not like project 2025 it's not like trying to overturn election but I think in I think selectively you know it still could be useful I look maybe they can do day with National Security all of EX Admirals and Generals and [ __ ] but remember in politics to do one thing is not to do another and that's the hard thing because say we just do one more thing and I I you know it's great question for him at the debate I'm sure he'll get it but I just think we got him and I don't know what the rules are James because you know he'll lie about it and the question is is it going to be like a last debate if she has some good jokes as I said today one joke is worth 100 fact checks it doesn't matter he he he now knows that he lives with impunity but right he he is really caught on this Florida thing I mean really caught really uncomfortable and B this thing is so good because when they accuse Paris of flip-flopping from her 2020 presidential campaign she can just point right to this easy this this is a because he said a it ought to be a state issue and when he has a chance in a place where he votes he has sided with a six we abortion correct that that is all the above is indisputable that's correct and it's indisputable that this is the best issue that the Democrats have had maybe in my lifetime yeah and and don't don't get too distracted here that'd be my message the numbers show kamla Harris surging in the South and putting Trump on the defensive right now it looks like her biggest opportunity May lie in Georgia how important would a win there be James well it's critical you you got seven states and you know Georgia you want by 11,000 votes it's actually with Virginia the two southern states that have two Democratic senators but not by very much and I I you know you ask me you know what's more important Pennsylvania Georgia Michigan Arizona it's like asking you what child's better okay they're all really critical but Georgia is at the first Rank and the other thing is is that the Atlanta Metropolitan Area is a huge percent of the voters in Georgia and it's decidedly Democratic and we have to do very very well if we're gonna win that it may look close but Harris has a secret weapon James and I are taking politics war room on the road to Atlanta for a live show on October 12th at the Variety Playhouse we're going to rally the troops host a special guest as they try to turn Georgia Blue now how much are you looking forward to seeing our listeners there James I'm I'm really looking forward to it and I promise our listeners this if you come out we'll do something we we we'll come up with some new ideas and maybe some new attacks and some new things to think about so we can all get excited I love going Atlanta uh I think this thing is going to be really really successful I think we'll have a a really special guest of people and for sure it's you know right is you know coming down the hom stretch at election and I can't imagine that there's a democrat in Atlanta metro that doesn't want to come to this because it's going to be a lot of fun absolutely and I want you to come to this incredible show that we're going to have uh in Georgia at the Variety Playhouse in Atlanta October 12th now don't wait the tickets are going fast and we want to see as many of you there as we can so please head to bon.com tour that's politic con.com tour now to get your tickets the road to the White House will start now absolutely come and see us in hotlanta let me try uh one more and that's um B Netanyahu who I think there's no doubt that BB Netanyahu has no interest in uh some kind of a truce which I think the majority of Israelis favor the IDF favors his supporter he couldn't wouldn't have these many of these weapons without the Americans uh and I think Biden has tried to say he's not doing enough I think Harris can go further uh I think you know basically uh you know you have to I agree I'm not anti-israel I'm quite pro- Israel she can say I agree with your defense minister I agree with your former prime minister miners I agree with the IDF I agree with uh the majority of Israeli citizens if you don't go to the to the to the table now negotiate a truce uh it's going to affect American support for you well understand how much financial support the United States has given the state of Israel right it's since Camp David the Iron Dome the the Munitions that that the everything and Netanyahu says we our country fine pay own way I mean that that might be too startling for some people but the idea that the United States government doesn't have a right to recommend policies to the state of Israel and the United States government has every expectation that the state of Israel will not do things to harm the interest of the United States because the United States has funded I don't know how many hundreds of billions of dollars in in every kind of thing that you can imagine the trade that we have with Israel is is is robust and it as it well should be but we we have some leverage here that we can exercise and I don't know if we need to say it public right away but you can certainly dispatch our ambassador or you know the Secretary of State say hey look dude this the way to C rate the Cabbage we don't have a serious talk here and James you can but he won't listen he has he has two interests he wants to stay in power and avoid jail and secondly he wants to help Donald Trump uh because if Donald Trump's elected he feels the pressure is off I I I agree but also the people of Israel very sensitive about the relationship with the United States right and you just got to bring some heat but it's just true you know if you want to do this extemporaneous Wild Man crap do it on your own time they can't do it that's why that's why you got leverage to get their attention yeah I think you're right about that James we're going to have quit airs on uh and a few minutes but anything else you want to talk about before we move on well you know I just I still think that this debate on September 10th is going to be a huge event and I think ABC is doing everything they can to try to keep it alive I think you don't know what he's going to do till the morning of September 10th he he could just decide that he's not going to do it you can see that he's torn uh and she just can ex I'm I'm showing up it was a contract we said we'd be there I believe in honoring your obligations and he's said he's in a tight spot here he doesn't want to do this he wants to get out of it but he doesn't quite know how and he's scared that he might need it to you know get a little bit back get a little bit mojo back so it's going to there's a this thing has got a lot of questions left to answer here I agree uh he wants to get out he'll be there he has no choice I thank you right but he you know who I mean he doesn't it's the one thing we know his advisors ain't got anything to say about it I mean his chief new advis on women's issues is Cory leowski and they have something in common both of them are adjudicated sexual harasses or molesters or something like that well I'm sure they're comfortable with each other totally okay uh we will we will keep on this [Music] hit the ground running after a long night with zbiotics if you foggy the next day it it it affects your judgment it affects things that come out of you and boy 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and get 50 15% off your first order when you use pwr at checkout zbiotics is back with 100% money back guarantee so if you're not satisfied for any reason they'll refund your money no questions asked remember to head to zbiotics decom pwr and use the code pwr at checkout for 15% off the link is in our show notes [Music] hey James Our Guest has long been one of America's Premier uh political pollsters Whit SS who is the founder and president of Northstar opinion research there is no more respected Republican poster than Whit airs Whit first of all thanks for being with us Al great to be with you and great to be with James I've always found him one of the most entertaining people out there and you one of the most insightful well certainly James has never been D he's also insightful but with too much to go with tell us what you think is the state of the presidential race today I think it is what everyone obviously says it is and that is basically a dead heat that will boil down to seven critical swing states that are also a dead heat uh kamla Harris has had a remarkable five or six weeks uh since Joe Biden got out of the race uh Joe Biden had depressed Democratic numbers in polling and way way below normal because the vast majority of Democrats as well as uh people around the country uh who are Republicans and independents thought he was too old to run again once he got out of the way and Kam Harris got in the polls snap back to normal normal in a polarized very partisan age means a dead heat which is what we've got I think she has run a very good race so far with only one significant error uh which we can talk about if you want or we can go on to something else don't tease us talk about what what was it I think it was a very significant blunder not to put Josh Shapiro on the ticket with her Josh Shapiro is a wildly popular governor of the most critical swing state and the largest swing state of Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes you lose Pennsylvania you got to make up with two of the other swing States instead she took a popular Governor from a state that has not voted for a republican candidate for president in a half a century I saw a poll this last week that said that a Harris Shapiro race would be six points ahead of trump van in Pennsylvania and so I think it was a major blunder that could cost her the election uh she might win in spite of it uh but it is a it is a horrible missed opportunity from the perspective of the Harris campaign and my judgment well I certainly thought she should have picked Shapiro um still do but walls has been a much better candidate than I thought he was going to be yeah I mean he's he's a good candidate he seems to be a good guy with good Midwestern values of decency and respect for others and as a native of Ames Iowa I I like those smalltown Midwestern values uh but the fact remains that he brings nothing to the table that she didn't already have and Josh Shapiro could bring the most critical swing state that is currently a tossup so to me it's a was a no-brainer to pick him and I for the life of me don't understand why she didn't let me ask you this how important is next to Tuesday's Harris Trump debate and what does each candidate have to do or hope to do well I think at this point you have to say it's critical anytime you have a tie race uh any significant event has the potential to be critical it could be a non-event or it could be a watershed event and we just don't know I mean we think back to the last debate with Joe Biden most of us didn't think it was going to be a watershed event and yet it completely upended the race what Joe what what kamla Harris has to do is come across as a competent and reasonable potential president of United States and what Trump has to do is focus his attacks on enormous policy differences between the two and try to avoid the sort of personal uh bullying schoolyard Antics that so often come out of his mouth uh we'll see if he can do it I know his team wants him to do that uh we'll see if he has the discipline to pull it off my doubt it but well let me ask one more Point James and I have have stressed that the only way that the one-time Republican party that you knew so well can return to its brand smaller government free markets strong National Security Reagan Bush Lamar Alexander Bob Corker is for Trump and trumpism to suffer a really huge defeat on November 5 yet there was a fascinating piece a couple days ago in the bwork by Jonathan and last that argues even that wouldn't matter the trumpism now is so embedded in the Republican party and that nothing in the foreseeable future is going to change that your view I I disagree with Jonathan on that I think that Donald Trump is Suey generous I think if he is no longer in the picture there will be others who will try to pick up the mantle but there's no one out there like Donald Trump and the people who've tried to pick up the manle have for the most part suffered defe feat at The Ballot Box when they ran for Senate or for governor so I I think it would be a fundamentally different party it would be a party that would have to marry the more traditional Republicans with the magga Republicans so I I don't think we're going back to a Reagan Bush party uh but it's hard to imagine exactly what the party would look like with a fusion of magga Republicans and traditional Republicans uh but I I don't think it's locked into a trump mindset without Donald Trump to drive it James so we do campaigns people don't do this kind of question but we would ask people I'm going to read you two statements which one do you mostly agree with that Donald Trump was uniquely skilled politician that came on the scene that was able to put together a coalition of people who xenophobic uh that uh were against immigration that were sort of misogynistic uh kind of isolationist foreign policy and he just brilliantly exploited Republicans around the country to follow him there's another view by a Senate candidate named Kathy bornett who was a black extreme trumpist candidate in Pennsylvania she said you have to understand something magga was here before Trump he just came in and rded us and mega will be here after Trump which of these two statements comes closer to R's view um probably the second uh but not with the conclusion and the second that uh the trumpism is going to dominate the party trumpism is basically a populist movement which is anti it's anti-establishment anti-immigrant anti- press anti- expertise and that has been a theme not just in the Republican party I mean going back to Williams Jennings Bryan and huie long were populist politicians uh George Wallace was a populist politician in the Democratic party but we've had Pat Buchanon giving a speech in 1992 which Donald Trump could have given um and so we've had that element in the Republican party for a long time the difference is that a populist had never been elected Ed president before and that's what really made this difference so Donald Trump took a theme that was there and magnified it and grew it into the dominant force in the Republican party and so I think it's it's more the second than the first James so there are any number of Republican friends who you know say look if we ever want to get somewhat nationalistic low tax lighter regulatory touch more tradition party back then Trump has to get wiped out and I that's even possible and look at go gold got wiped out in 64 Republicans came back in 1 in 68 mgov got wiped out in 72 the Democrats came back in 1 in76 and that that that's the way that we can Purge the party of this rot well I don't think you're ever going to purge the party of millions of Americans who believe in Donald Trump and believe in his message Donald Trump will go away eventually I mean if he gets elected again he's going to go away in 2028 because he can't run again and if he he loses he's going to go away because he will have led Republicans to five straight defeats in 2018 2020 2021 in Georgia and 2022 so he will go away eventually and then it's going to be an interesting amalgamation as I said of the magga voters and the more traditional Republicans that'll go forward so turn back to I just make one point if Harris wins in 2028 in 20 years it'll only be four years of Republican rule right and I think the average Republican at that point is going to be open to how do we how do we and they're going to have Supreme Court appointments and all the [ __ ] and foreign policy and all of the stuff and I just think if Harris wins the Republican party is going to be a lot more focused on winning the election in 2020 8 and than previously well you're probably right James uh I wrote a whole book about how the Republican party needs to adapt to a new more diverse America and my argument was that the basic principles of free enterprise and individual liberty and strong National Defense and a reasonable size but not overweening federal government appeal to people across racial and ethnic lines uh Donald Trump I think got a hold of that book decided to do the exact opposite on every one of the recommendations in the book but I continue to believe that the Republican party I continue to believe that the Republican party needs to and must adapt to a changing America and that it has a capacity to do that and be victorious okay Albert um Whit JD Vance is probably off to the roughest start of any vice presidential candidate since uh Dan Quail you know maybe Sarah Palin why and does it make any difference I think that when Donald Trump picked JD Vance as his VP he this was before Joe Biden dropped out and he thought he was picking the magga successor for himself as opposed to someone who could help him win I'm not sure he would make that same Choice today I suspect someone like Marco Rubio or Doug Burnham Maybe would have stood a better chance yeah uh but I think he was Donald Trump was very very confident he was going to waltz into the White House when he made that pick but let's not forget as you mentioned Sarah Palin had a really rough roll out did I mean really she just saw Alaska from her front porch Whit I mean after all now come on that was Saturday Night Live live but that's F wasn't her but but you know you're right I mean had an incredibly rough roll out uh and it didn't seem to have that much effect on the election although I will say I know plenty of people who wanted to vote for John McCain but who were resistant for doing so because they didn't want Sarah Palin One Heartbeat Away from the White House well my other example Dan Quail got a you know had a terrible roll out and it didn't make any difference at all I mean he his his his opponent as the Vice Presidential nominee was Lloyd Benson who got a great roll out and uh bush clobber decacus in Texas so uh it if if if Vance were to call you tomorrow and say okay what can I do now two months to go hadn't been very good any advice you could give him Al JD Vance would never ask for my advice in a million years but I think you just have to sound like a reasonable person who wants to be president of all Americans uh rather than taking pot shots at various people you don't particularly like uh that doesn't go over very well anytime you criticize someone because of their identity you offend everyone who shares that identity uh whether it's childless cat owners or whoever it is uh and so it's a good way to make a whole lot of enemies and not win a lot of friends well obviously we love podcast um here uh with but JD's problem too is he went on too damn many podcast four or five years ago and said all kinds of loony things but James go ahead so uh before we go the the posts were not good in 2020 they read uh Biden went in Wisconsin by eight Pennsylvania by seven Michigan by and they were taking late they say all right we learned that lesson in 2016 we're going to pull right we're going to pull through the end they were actually dead on in Georgia right but Trump really he really underp posed y'all is the industry trying to take something to or can we have more confidence in Poe today than we did four years ago no I think so the whole industry has faced that James and I think we're doing a lot more to make sure that we have the proportionate number of non-college whites in our samples uh we're taking various methods to try to reach out to people differently I mean most polls now um are doing some landlines for seniors a lot of cell phones for young people and we're also doing a lot of text to web where we can send someone a text and say if you'd like to take a survey go to this website and take the survey here so most of us are using some combination of a multimodal strategy to try to overcome that ultimately James the proof is going to be in the pudding we're going to find out if we've been successful but our our polling in 2018 and 2022 was was dead on the money we're pretty good in 2020 too uh 2020 as well but it seems like Donald Trump is is the real challenge uh we we don't have a problem doing a good poll When Donald Trump's not a part of the mix uh but there are people who will vote for him who simply won't take our polls and that's been the challenge for us so I just for before I leave you a lot of posters Democrat Republican I don't know if I'm sure as but no one wants to get it wrong I mean they they will not I mean they I've known posters that love to come in and tell you bad news like they almost like Greenberg would get excited you know we're losing guy you know literally but but my experience in Al you probably the most experience that's conducting polls and journalism I I don't I don't I think 80% of the people in this industry really take pride and trying to get it right oh there's no question James I mean if if we don't get it right our reputation suffers and the best way to build our business is to get it right not necessarily to pump up the side you happen to be working for do anybody any good well I'll just say this picking up on James's point at the Wall Street Journal for what 16 years uh we had Peter Hart and Bob terer doing polls you know they were two of the very very best we had one maybe two polls that really weren't right that's a pretty damn good percentage when we were doing 12 a year but both times you know they agreed to throw one out but God it they were reluctant to throw it out I mean they kind of knew it and the same thing with one Anne Selzer pole uh at at Bloomberg she too is in the wit A's Peter Hart Bob terer League uh but James's point they want to get it right and um they will reluctantly agree when they have one that just doesn't work which happens and we we have done that I mean one out of 20 polls is just going to be screwy ain't that a mathematical certainty of course 95 I know can't do the math but people that can said it's a it's a certainty it's like gravity one out of 20 you has to be bad right right 95 times out of a 100 the true number is within plus or minus x per of the number we're showing you right that's 95% but that means 5% of the time it won't be and most of us can see those polls because they just look off they look off from everything else we've seen from everything else that's out there and we have thrown polls out and said to our client I'm sorry this is that one out of 20 and we go back and redo the poll but that's part of being a holster with some Integrity is recognizing those things and then being willing to throw it out and go back and do it again yeah I used to say well taken po speaks to me I can hear it when I'm reading it it's talking to me okay it makes sense and then you would try to see one number and guess the next number so if the direction of country was one thing all right then you would like to connect something else or party self-described party ID with something else you would try to link it to something else and there really well taken POS which I've had the honor of seeing quite a few in my life I've seen some bad ones they they they talk to you when you're when you're going through them you almost have it a conversation they hang together right they they make sense as you say you see one number and you kind of know what the next number is going to be and and a good poll is internally consistent and makes sense to people who are experienced in the business that was that May 23 po about bid and I kept looking and it was actually worse than I thought I started okay I'm trying to guess this number it was [ __ ] 10 points worse and I say guess this number it was 10 that's what I said we're not coming back from this you have two candidates with 100% knowledge and you can't you know you can say oh yeah but Harris wford came from 40 back that was different no one knew who Harris was you're exactly right these numbers were so bad and I would tell people you don't understand they much worse course then you it's not just that he's five down they're not even listening to it exactly no you were right on Biden's age all along it is unfathomable to me that a year ago he didn't look at reality and get out and give the Democrats an opportunity to have a contest and may the cream rise but he stubbornly hung on until he had no choice but to go with with Harris and if Harris wins he will he'll be fine he'll be judged for what he did as president uh which I think will be pretty good if Harris loses he will go down as the guy who threw away this election by his SE I'll just make one other polling Point uh you know you do adjust you do adapt if you have a lower percentage of women or a lower percentage or higher percentage of blacks you make some adjustments one time I said to Anne Selzer I think we have too many too many I think Democrats in this poll uh I don't remember which party it was and she said I don't like to adjust for how people are self identifying I mean that's their choice I mean it's not ours it's different than do you agree with that um I don't I have a lot of respect for an she's a very fine pollster but we know that party ID doesn't vary dramatically from one poll to the next we know it can all it can migrate a little bit but it's you're not going to have 32% of Democrats in one poll and 40% in the next poll and have both of them be r it politics just doesn't work that way and so if you don't adjust the one with 40% Democrats versus the 32 every number is going to be more democratic by eight points we know that so yeah we we do adjust we adjust on on an average of party ID over time to make sure you don't have one of those that is just wildly out of balance well we mentioned an Selzer and Stan Greenberg and Bob terer and Peter Hart and that Pantheon of great posters there's wit airs too so I can't I hope we can get you I hope we can get you back in you know toward the end this stuff I'm happy to talk about this stuff anytime you want well we we won and we'll get back to you Whit airs thank you so much my pleasure gentlemen you have a good afternoon we'll do thank you [Music] stay connected and save with mmobile you know if you think about these things and you get something that you save that kind of money you got to think of it not just how much money you save in a month you look at it how much money you're going to save over threeyear period and from everything that I know about this product it delivers what you need at a much much reduced cost so if you could get something just as good cheaper why wouldn't you take it yeah well you know we love a great deal as much as the next guy but we're not going to walk through hot coals just to save a few bucks it has to be easy no hoops no BS so when mintmobile said it was easy to get wireless for 15 bucks a month with a purchase of a three-month plan you know they were called on it it turns out it really is that easy to get wireless for 15 bucks a month the longest part of the process is sitting on hold waiting to break up with your old provider now 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mintmobile.com warom that's mintmobile.com warom cut your wireless bills to 15 bucks a month at mintmobile.com slw room $45 upfront payment required equivalent to $15 a month new customers on first three-month plan only speed slower above 40 GB on Unlimited Plan additional taxes fees and restrictions apply see mint mobile for details or look for the link in our show [Music] notes hey James Our Guest is one of America's Premier historians on the presidency Lindsay trinsky historian at the George Washington Presidential Library at Mount Vernon her new book a biography of John Adams and the important presidents the nation's second president set for America Dr travinsky first of all it's a great honor to have you as our guest and we want to talk about some of those important one one imp particular precedents but first your account of the crazy quilt election and political machinations of 1800 is riveting the context just briefly after Washington uh after George Washington after eight years Adams defeated Jefferson in 1796 they faced each other in 1800 imagine a rematch and it was a bitter contest and after more than a month of voting they ended up essentially tied so it went to the House of Representatives on the 36th ballot the finalists were Jefferson and not Adams but Jefferson's own vice president vice presidential candidate Aaron Burr God that must have been unsettling for a new Republic Lindsay yes it was I think the first real constitutional crisis and you know what let me start and say this thank you so much for having me it is a delight to be both with both of you you are both icons and I'm a longtime listener and it's uh just wonderful to be with you um but yes 1800 was just a really calamitous moment we I know we'll talk more about it but the threat of violence was so real and the threat of it all completely falling apart was so tangible that I think sometimes because we know how it worked out we downplay that threat in our minds but they really didn't we want to talk about one of the maybe as important a precedent that Adams said it was about the peaceful transfer of power uh that was a bitter election as you said both thought the other was a danger to the nation Adams may have gotten a bad deal he may have had cause uh to complain to contest or whatever yet he accepted after the House vote he accepted the outcome and you knowed he hardly wish Jefferson a prosperous Administration that was a really important thing wasn't it it was you know I think he gets um a little bit of a the short end of the shrift because well first he lost and he went home peacefully that is a radical thing to do at any time it is even more radical in the age of Napoleon which was when he was living so he lost he accepted the outcome he went home I think he deserves Applause for that but he also set the terms of what that transition would be in that he instructed his cabinet members to cooperate with Jefferson to give him briefings so that he was sort of what we would think of as like intelligence reports so he was up to dat on what he would be walking into he had him over to the White House so he could meet with some of the staff and see the building and told him what you know carriages and horses belong to the executive brand so he didn't have to over bu and those are actions that were not required they were not written down it was not mandated and he did it anyway and and and at that time those two really were bitter foes they really disliked each other uh in 18801 uh so so so this was this was something special and and and you are a student of the presidency and that critical precedent that you just alluded to which helped to find America it hell didn't it without exception for 220 years until Donald Trump four years ago it did you know I think it's really the Bedrock of what it means to be a democracy because all of the other things you know you can kind of quibble over the definitions but if you don't have a transition that is decided at The Ballot Box and then carried out peacefully it's something else it's no longer a democracy and so much of the nature of that transition isn't in the Constitution it isn't required and it it takes repetition over decades and centuries to get American citizens to care about it to cherish it to uphold it and you're right that you know I mean the Civil War was kind of a weird anomaly but even then the South left because they accepted the outcome they didn't contest the outcome they accepted the outcome and they left and so while certainly it wasn't an ideal transition January 6 was a turning point in American history and was one of the things that really unlocked Adam's presidency for me James so Prof I I you know read a little bit of reading your book I read a previous book about Adams I watched the I don't know HBO thing or something and I kind of don't like him what should I like him more than I do yes you should for two reasons one he was a little bit of a beloved kagin but we have to have a soft spot in our hearts for kagin because then you know what else that the second part is so much of what we think of as as the negative stuff that we think we know about Adams was actually brilliant propaganda that was written by Hamilton and Jefferson they were the two all-time greatest propagandists in American history so they like the Lost Cause yeah they were even better than that because no one even questions it in fact historians for centuries have taken what they wrote about Adams In the Heat of a political environment when they were competing against him they've taken that as truth to be accepted and not to be challenged and it doesn't mean that there wasn't you know a little speck of Truth in there but it certainly should not be taken at face value and so I think he actually was you know he had a brilliant wife that he adored he was very funny he was very self-deprecating very aware of his own flaws um totally brilliant committed to The Republic and I think there's a lot there to really like I mean so take a minut order I understand he and Franklin didn't get along well that is true they well they had a lot of respect for one another the problem was that they were operating they were both diplomats in France and Adams was not well suited temperamentally to be a diplomat in France because he really didn't like that they didn't seem to work very hard it really annoyed him that they seemed to just be having these parties and they started the day really late and they spent all this time in bed and it had it was a very sort of intangible form of diplomacy that Franklin excelled at when Adams went to the Netherlands and he was at the he or even when he went to London he did great because they got him there was a cultural Affinity there but I think he and Franklin just were so different temperamentally that there was a little bit of oil and water um but it doesn't mean that he couldn't get along with people who were different than him I mean he and Jefferson actually were really pretty good friends for more of their life than they were not so before I turn back this is I guess I can't get out of he was kind of anti-immigrant the Ali in Sedition Act he he wasn't not a great civil libertarian it what's the defense of him why what make me feel better about him yeah no it's a it's a really good question and the Sedition Act is without a doubt the darkest mark on his presidency I think it's worth noting so first all of that legislation he didn't ask for any of it he didn't try and you know Curry votes for it or Curry favor the Federalists in Congress and this was at a time when Congress really was responsible for starting the legislation it's not like the president was like pass this bill um and so they they passed the bill he did sign it he did accept the Sedition prosecutions 100% that's a dark mark the alien piece I think is a little bit different because Congress passed a number of different bills that made it harder basically for immigrants to become citizens and to votes to try and undercut the political support of the Jeffersonian Republican Army but they also gave Adams enormous authority to just Deport immigrants at will and he never used it he never actually used that Authority because he didn't think it was appropriate without due process so I think that is requires a little bit more Nuance before I turn it back to so you listen to our show you know alen who would we have voted for in 1800 oh well yeah you probably would have voted for Jefferson thank you I love I love go ahead we we always go for the pretty face Lindsay right that's such a great question that a great question um let me I mean Adams was a critical figure in the revolution a critical figure in the founding the the Declaration Constitution first president after Washington the nation's icon yeah he did a couple bad things as you mentioned like the Sedition Act but just know good things too like the peaceful transfer yet history does not seem to place him in the pantheon of the extraordinary Founders Washington Jefferson Madison Franklin even Hamilton do you think he should be I do I mean I think you know I think his presidency actually really belongs in the contributions he made one of the biggest things he did was he knew how absolutely miserable it was going to be to follow Washington anyone who followed Washington is going to have a terrible time because they were going to absolutely fall short by comparison and there were a lot of questions especially especially foreign policy questions that were starting to come up that were going to need to be resolved and yet he did it anyway he showed up and I think that contribution is much less sexy than winning a civil war it's much less exciting than winning World War Two but it matters and it's it's important and you know he was instrumental in the Declaration of Independence he ensured that Washington was in charge of the army he signed a number of really critical treaties that kept the US economy afloat and then defended American sovereignty and then as president he did the things we've talked about peaceful transfer of power showing up but he also got the Treaty of Mora Fontaine which was signed in 1800 passed and that ensured peace with the United States and France which is the longest lasting one of the longest lasting pieces in the United States Lindsay is there I I hate asking this question shows my ignorance is there any Adams Memorial any Adams Monument it's a great question it's a really important one most people when you know you ask that question they'll say well there's the Adams Building at the library of Congress which I don't think really counts because Jefferson also has a building and he also has a very large Monument on the in you know around the mall on the Title Basin there is actually a commission in Congress right now to try and create an Adams Family Memorial which I think is a really good way to look at it because they saw the Revolution and Independence and then the American Republic as a family project and Adam's contributions would not be possible without Abigail's participation she kept their life going she raised their children and she was his most important adviser so I think seeing it as a family project is a really good way to go yeah let me try you know just one more before I turn it back to James to close this is uh you mentioned the treaty with France I believe that was signed and when he was a lame duck uh and uh at the end of his term it's a great model what he accomplished after uh he had been defeated is a great model uh for Joe Biden today it is a great model you know he he got the treaty signed and ratified which was was a challenge and actually took a lot of assistance from the Secretary of State John Marshall and he managed to get a new Judiciary bill passed which Jefferson called super political but it was actually really important and it created reforms that created basically the Appellate level of the judicial system and is very similar to what we end up having today he was careful about the transition he was careful about the crisis of 1800 and um he set the tone for what it meant to manage in a crisis and I think that those are really important things and and things worth applauding and studying for the current President James you want to wrap this up yeah so Professor when I look at Adams what I know about it he does not look like a revolutionary okay he looks like a he he looks like his his instinct is more of stabit arianism what drove him over the line to be a revolutionary and obviously a very kind of effective one if you will what what was you don't think Justin you can see him being a revolutionary that wasn't hard live in Franklin but Adams I give him a lot of credit because I don't think that was his natural default position well he definitely wasn't instinctually super radical you're right I think that that's true I think there are a couple of key attributes that made him a super devoted revolutionary and early on I mean he was one of the earliest voices for Independence in Congress and Prett essential in getting it pasted so the first was that he was incredibly principled and quite obstinate and he did not mind doing something that was unpopular if he felt it was right perhaps that's ringing some bells for you gentlemen over the last couple of months so he he really didn't mind you know and this first comes up with he decided to to represent the the British soldiers after the Boston Massacre because he wanted to demonstrate that the colonies were trying to be a place where where principles really mattered it wasn't a mob rule Society it was a place where the rule of law was important and the revolution they were talking about was based on the rule of law and so I think that obstinacy that sense of righteousness the sense of principles and right and wrong was really important to him I also think that he cannot be understood separate from his New England Puritan Roots he had great pride in being a New Englander being a multi-generation New Englander he was a man of Harvard and so there was a great deal of independent spirit and pride in that background that clashed with the idea that they were somehow less than the British Homeland or other British subjects they had a lot of Bride and being new englanders and you know really would have resented being told they were second class okay so this is my suggestion Adams Legacy they should take a major building and named after is is the exec office building have a name Al butt uh it's the Eisenhower Building isn't it yeah well just take I think it's Su and name it after it and then use it as a reonal teaching moment to tell the country how sacred this trans peaceful transfer popular power is yeah here because as good as your book is one more question before I go I when I was reading your book it struck me I was thought that foreign policy back in hell you had the Indians to away and they had the Atlantic Ocean and there wasn't much in between and that is decidedly not true they had a they had to really manage some kind of sticky foreign policy issues didn't they they they really did you know Not only was foreign policy quite present because there was constantly the threat of war with France Spain Great Britain but foreign policy was the primary responsibility of the federal government and the expectation that the president would spend the majority of their time on foreign policy and of course the president is really the only person responsible for foreign policy policy So Adam spent the majority of his presidency trying to figure out how to keep the United States neutral because he understood how essential trade and intellectual commerce was to the future of the United States and that war would destroy that thank you thank you Professor Albert close well I I hope everyone out there will get uh Lindy triny's uh biography of John Adams and the important precedence that he said it really is uh a terrific book uh we're so glad you joined us and I must tell you James I am lobbying her for her next book I want her to do her next book which she hasn't ruled out on Grant and Eisenhower and and I think it could be a fabulous book because you know she's one of the great historians in our country so Lindsay I'm Gonna Keep after you on this one I appreciate it I really like the support thank you thank you thank you so much profess I hope if we can come back home and you know give us some historical markers as we enter this pretty uncertain time to say the least anytime always glad to join you guys thank you [Music] man transform your home with three-day blinds I think look we we talk about this a lot on the show about sleeping and but when you can get that blacked out room that's a real real important too and this stuff works let me tell you it works and it's really a lot better sometimes in the summertime because it gets light 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according to Politico behind this referendum which was intended to energize turnout you know in Kansas Ohio Kentucky among others all resoundingly approved abortion rights measures if it fers in New York it's because the New York state democratic party and the state produces some outstanding Federal officials like know Hakeem Jeff but the New York state democratic party uh is a near disaster and if they screw this went up they really they really deserve all the blame they can get yeah there's so many factions it it's never it's always been a state party at war with itself right you know Mount rage is the whole prolife movement okay I grew up cradle Catholic I don't know how many sermons I've listened to about it's plain and simple abortion is murder uh they had the human life Amendment they were adamant they they presented themselves as having the moral High Ground that there was a real sense of what was right and what was wrong and at a time you could say well I disagree with him but you got to at least give them the fact that they're principal people that they really believe this and this is very much part of who they are and when you watch all of the back and forth and you know 16 weeks or should we have six or should we have this and they they they're they've just exposed themselves is just a pack of Hypocrites that are trying to save themselves politically and I I don't know how many human right Amendments have been in the Republican Party platform how many sermons have been given on Sunday morning and they just quit and it's like well okay well if you got to be for 12 weeks that's fine or you need exceptions that's fine all right and maybe there's an element of political practicality they have who who is James Corville to criticize somebody for being politically practical or politically expedient but that's not what that that would that's not the way you ran your your your business here for the last 50 years you ran it as this that you were some moral Superior moral High ground and it turned out you're not on a high ground you're just in a sludge pit with everybody else yeah excellent point [Music] hey and now for our always great questions from our listeners James I just love this first one this is one of the all-time greats Susan in Washington D.C says I am starting to finish James's sentences before he does is there some sort of self-help group I can join does Mary meline provide some Zoom counseling well I okay all I can tell you is uh Watch the documentary it'll be on CNN on October 5th and you you could see a lot of Mary and uh that's very complimentary thank you for saying that but I'm I think what you're telling me sometimes my thoughts are consistent and that's a very high a high high compliment that is a high we we'll we'll check with Mary about whether she provides any Zoom counseling Susan Gordon in Norwood Michigan says fact Checkers are bending over backwards to classify Dem talking points on Project 2025 and abortion as misleading what gives well first of all Gordon factchecking uh I think had more value 20 years ago or so but uh Donald Trump told how many tens of thousands yeah he was fact checking and it didn't matter he doesn't care he he is proven that you can just run rough shot over over fact Checkers I still think they add I still rather have them than not have them but they do bend over backwards and so therefore if there are 10 10 statements made and Trump lies about eight and the Democrats exaggerate about two and you have a 5050 that that that really is uh that really is is is not good journalism but you know I think Trump is just Trump has really uh really hurt if not ruin the factchecking industry well so so let's take the fact check industry and let me tell you something and I defy anyone to disagree on this by 5 to1 they would rather fact check a misleading Democratic chain claim because there so because Republic are so many so they want to we're just we're just onir man we're just caught like it see it we we don't really have anything and of of course there are times when Democrats exaggerate use but this is the my thing is if so would how would you fact check World War II How would would you fact check Tojo in roselt how would you fact check yamamota in in nimit all right would you just say well down the line uh he made a mistake here but you know he said that or he was deceptive or you know Tojo really came from more humble backgrounds than roselt no and and they're treating this like this is just a normal time where you got a you know shirts and skins and we just call them like we see them and you I think the whole industry has to decide what is our role here is our role to be objective impartial observers that report as accurately and fairly as we can or is our role here to try to help save the Constitution of the United States because they're two different things yeah you need how would you fact check Lincoln and Jefferson Davis yeah how you how do you fact check well you know Davis was actually Secretary of Defense he was in the United States he was actually more qualified than Lincoln I think by any measure in the late 1850s Justin Davis would had more quality Lincoln was only a one-term congressman so the fact Checkers would say well yeah he's been one term Congressman he's a very good AR but on other this guy's been a very respected uh I think it was defense secretary and he was a very important United States Senator he he certainly had a a nuance and deeper background in Lincoln did that's the way these [ __ ] would do it today yeah have to go out of their way to you know well you know Yamamoto was a you know Gambler he like to play ruette and you know it logistical genius and he was finger was shot off at tashima uh there's all kind of good things you could if the fact check of the day would find give you something to like about Yamamoto and something to dislike about nemes it's not a not a fact ja James some of our some of our listeners like to jump ahead Pete and Raleigh North Carolina says when the writing is on the wall on Election night and Harris is elected should she call Trump and tell him she'll get his criminal charges dropped if he concedes the election congratulates her and Promises never to go back on on it again no yeah and you cannot negotiate I mean in whe you know the peaceful transfer of power is not a negotiable thing in the United States now she may matter what he says anyway wouldn't keep word you know but you know maybe she'll figure to the best interest of the country too Parton him I don't think she will and she'd have to certainly give you would want her to get good reasons but I I don't think you can say if if you accept the law I'll do this for you no right if he gets a pardon it will be it it should be a with very very very tough conditions monetary and political and it should be right on the eve of him going to The Slammer uh and and that's the only way and that's debatable Mary in B Colleen Ireland boy it's good to have huh oh from from the whole country the native soil says uh what are your views on Harris's chances in Pennsylvania and why is she devoting so many resources to places like Georgia when it looks like psylvia will be the key to winning uh well first of all uh Mary I'm going to tell you that I lost a bet to Paul Bala in 2016 when I bet with confidence that Pennsylvania would go for Hillary Clinton I was wrong but I placed another bet the other day Pennsylvania will be with Harris I know the polls are very close but if you look at the state and you look at the demographics of the state and the population of the state and the growth areas of the state which are those four huge Philadelphia suburbs cast more votes and Pittsburgh and Philadelphia put together she will do probably even better than Biden did last time with that population growth she'll do a little bit better in Philadelphia uh with the black vote May do almost as well in alagan and the rest of the state which James has called Alabama Trump may do a little bit better but not a lot and I think when you put that all together uh I really would much rather have her hand in Pennsylvania than his well the I would have to say the PO pennslvania little stubborn all right it was some Spade of them came out here recently and I think it's more I mean I think you're probably right at the end I'd rather kind of rather be her but not by a lot but I'm going to address a question about resources they have so much money they gave 25 million to House and Senate candidates and you have to be able to compete in Pennsylvania and Georgia at the same time you have to be able to compete in Wisconsin and Arizona at the same time you have to be ready to compete in Michigan and Nevada North Carolina which I'm big on at the same time I mean it's only seven I actually think there's eight but I'm one of very few people that do but I mean there's seven classical swing States here and you got to be in all of them and you have the resources to do it you got a a vice presidential candidate that all of the the congressional candidates are clamoring to come in W is way more hot item to campaign with congressional candidates and even Harris is Right which they got a lot of resources you know they do James I think the only time where a choice is necessary is probably in the closing weeks with candidate time but uh certainly you're right they can certainly spend you know they can spend it all in Georgia North Carolina Arizona Nevada as well as the BL wall yeah you can fly from Pittsburgh to Sur around in two and a half hours yeah I mean it's just you got resources and I don't you know where you pick IND look if you go to Pennsylvania do you campaign in Philadelphia to try to get traditional democratic institu out you campaign in maybe York or Eerie or I don't know I I mean it's not just where you the state you show up in there way you show up in the state you show up in that yeah that's true James Ray and Donaldsville Louisiana where's Donaldsville Donaldsonville is where I went to high school it's about I don't know s 17 miles down river but it's on it's a West Bank Town uh it's a old at one time was like the Louisiana Capital uh it's a you know it's a town place for the interest in history and I graduate from bensin cathic in Donaldsonville Louisiana yes well Ray asked he notes that Democrats have been successful in Georgia by registering more young and black voters and he wants to know are there any organized efforts being made in Louisiana and Mississippi to do the same not I mean there's always some but I would say this in y remember very much of Louisiana and at heart I think Mississippi might be a more fruitful place down the road in Louisiana it's black population is I think ours is like 33 we're second but they're like 38 and a half 39 in terms of raw population and uh but but they could be more but some of the registration figures I see are actually pretty encouraging around the country it was some out before but not So Much Anymore pick up in your point about Mississippi my son's candidate Brandon Presley only lost that Governor's race by less than three points right uh that's not a landslide and that you know it's probably not there now but it could be there you know four or five years from now it could and they they you know it all depends if they got to feel some really good count but in Louisiana you know had John Bell was once in a lifetime political figure who had the you know very good fortune of having really really I think at the end of the day kind of weak opponents I mean David bter was you know had a lot of issues and that uh Ron guy that ran against him 2017 right John in Philadelphia Pennsylvania said I hope both of you were stuck in DC during 2006 I think I know what he's getting to because my daughter takes after you two more than me it's her first time voting and she wanted to kick off the election by seeing politics War Room live in New York City on the 19th of September unfortunately we can't make it did we miss our chance you know 2006 as big Believers in our democracy and Constitution I think Jam j s I would advise us to take the fifth on that but I want to tell John something you're in luck you'll miss Manhattan on the 19th but James and I have a live show in Boston at the Schubert theater the week of the election November two three days before the election and you know it's not that bad a drive or train ride up to Boston so you and your daughter John can do it the energy is going to be crazy what about it James with us there I think I think I'm excited Boston's such a great City it's easily accessible you I promise you we're going to have a great program it'll be Lively it'll be interesting and you know hopefully we can even that late in the cycle can break some new Turf here we're going to try to for sure three days before the election I can't imagine a more exciting time and a more appropriate place than Boston Massachusetts we want everyone listening to join us on the tour during the final stretch you're going to rally the troops hear from a special guest and it's going to be a celebration of Harris's upcoming win all you have to do is go to pon.com and get your tickets for November two at the Schubert theater in Boston Massachusetts now don't wait they're going fast we want to see as many of you there as we can so head to bacon.com now to get your tickets we'll see you in Boston November two come see us in Beantown hey James uh Brian in Long Island City New York uh says Republicans have asked why kamla didn't Implement her presidential plans and policies uh during this Administration what's the best response Brian she was vice president vice presidents don't Implement policies they follow presidential policies they may advise but I'm you didn't hear of Biden policies during the Obama years you know you exception might be Dick Cheney but that's rare and uh you know I think uh that that uh she can easily adapt and has and promote some new policies but you know you can't you you you can say that she was involved in an Administration that she thought had bad policies I don't agree with that but you can't say she should have implemented her own policies during the last three and a half years I I agree 100% And I do I wrote to dat she's got to tell us what she wants to do I mean go not you know can't run say them would be just like the last person and no one's ever done that to be to be fair Bush may be an 88 a little more than you know most people but yeah that's about it James our last question is almost as good as our first question that was from Susan who's finishing your sentences and needs to have a you know some kind of Merry Zoom call this is Allen and Wester Massachusetts who says my wife is pregnant with her first child due in December what is one one piece of advice you would give to all new dads or parents and how would you suggest teaching our kids about becoming interested and participating in politics and civic affairs well I've always had this Theory btom times when you get married your life doesn't change much between you and your wife the first kid it it switches because she BS the burden of having a child of taking care of it and so they it's like you do something you know I'm doing all the work here and it's you know I I I I I don't know I the only thing I try with my little grandson to the extent that I get to spend time with him is just be curious and if you're curious everything else will follow I I know plenty smart people that are not successful I know plenty people who are not that smart who are pretty successful but I don't know of unless it's some kind of math prodigy or something like that I most all successful people I know have one thing in common they're really curious and if you can just have that kind of environment I think everything will be fine Allan two bits of advice this is it's it's different our first child was born over 40 years ago and someone said to me when when Judy was I don't know five or six months pregnant go see all the movies you can and I thought what you know what what's talking about this is when we went out to a movie theater and the answer was that once your child's born yeah you'll get a babysitter when you have to go out for a dinner party or an engagement but you're more reticent uh if you want to go out and see a movie now it's a little bit different today with so much on on U on on the home screen but theaters or whatever have you your life's going to change and so just think of how it changes and the second and as far as interested in politics and civic affairs I spent the weekend with my six and a half year old grandchild and he asked a question about Donald Trump and KLA Harris didn't know very much and we had a wonderful half hour conversation and uh I'm not going to say that he is uh he is a James Carville now when it comes to knowledge of politics but he was interested and we I you know I think uh you know maybe we wetted his appetite some so talk to your kids about this yeah I uh you know the other thing ID tell you when my sister had a first baby but she came out the living room the mother said you have to understand you you'll never be you can only be as happy as your child is oh boy so if child is not happy you're not going to be happy and it's it just it just the way it is your self happiness and the way you feel about things is going to be more determined you know we can gut through when our wife is not happy but if we have an unhappy child it it really really dages us down but it's a great experience too when you when they're happy you you get really happy too you know there was the famous New Yorker cartoon about a new yorker's view of the world in First Avenue to 10th Avenue was about 95% of the map and then it went to I think Witchita and then New Deli which was 5 well that's what your life's going to be like before the child uh it's going to be Witchita New Deli and afterwards it'll be First Avenue to 10th Avenue I I remember that cartoon and I I thought it was a great actually was great and maybe too much truth to it sometimes thanks for listening to politics war room with James Carville and I'm Al Hunt now remember get your tickets for the politics War Room Tour live appearances James and I are bringing the podcast to you live on stage at the 92nd Street Y in New York City on September 19th with our guest NBA great and United States former United States Senator Bill Bradley the Variety Playhouse in Atlanta on October the 12th and Boston shuber theater on November thei 3 days before the election you can get tickets at pon.com tour and we can't wait to see you there as always send your questions for us by email to politics warro gmail.com or tweet them for next week's show at picon following this episode we'd really appreciate it if you check out the links to our sponsors zbiotics mint mobile and 3-day blondes and our episode show notes we thank you for supporting them because when you do it helps make make this podcast happen now to keep up with us subscribe to politics war room on Apple podcast Spotify or wher youever you listen and check out our substack at politics warroom.com James and I are constantly adding new content so go take a look you can also find other shows you might enjoy on the politicon YouTube channel or when you search politicon on your favorite podcast sites now remember please rate the show with a five-star review we'll be back next week with another show as we continue our war room planning [Music]