Kamala Harris GAINS in Post Debate Polls~ Trump Vs Harris Presidential Race

welcome back to conservative American predictions as you probably know the presidential debate between vice president K Harris and former president Trump happened a few nights ago and most people seem to agree including myself that KLA Harris did win the debate and that we'll give her somewhat of a boost come November now this boost might not actually happen it might kind of wear out by then but you know it's it's still an important factor of this race as it is any other presidential race and I want to talk about how the polls are showing the race going as of now and kind of what the race could look like again this isn't an actual prediction more how the polls are sang but also what it could be like and you know what what the map you know probably will look like to an extent now I don't think this is going to be the exact map to any extent because I don't have States like South Carolina likely as of now you know I don't have you know there's a lot of margins I disagree with some states I disagree with but again overall this is how I see the race going according to the polls as of now and kind of the polls reflection on the race so as you can see on the national level the polls have kind of bounced back to about where they were it was about 2.8 and then at the the day of the debate it was 2.7 the day after 2.6 but now it's back up to 2.8 so a couple of post debate polls have come out and as you can see the four National ones that have come out since the debate have been Harris plus three Harris plus 3 Harris plus 5 and Harris plus 5 no I do want to point out that one of them was done by OnPoint politics and Red Eagle politics whose poll somewhat overestimates Republicans and that could be true in this poll again so keep that in mind but again overall it was about a Harris plus you know four average of these plus4 polls so you know that's pretty good news for Harris if she's winning the popular vote by four point she's definitely going to win and you might be like okay well that's a little less than Biden won the popular vote by 2020 but Harris doesn't need to win the popular vote like Biden did to carry some of these states because I don't think she's going to do as well as in some of these you know deep blue States and that's where it's going to hurt her on the popular vote I don't think she's going to do as well in some of these deep Republican states same thing but she's going to be able to win the swing States most likely and that's where it's going to kind of balance out but it's not going to be enough you know completely cancel out the effect so there have been a couple of states that according to the polls are going to be you know likely Republican also um ignore this ignore that gradient of coloring I'm just I'm trying to space it out a little bit the these two gradients are fairly close to each other so just ignore that one for now but there's a couple of states that are going to be likely States most likely for Donald Trump according to the polls and some of them or a majority of these states only have polls done from before the debate but they still have mostly likely morgins those are Alaska and Ohio and out of Alaska there's a trump plus 10 pole released and out of Ohio it usually ranges from about Trump Plus 8 to Trump plus 12 now in South Carolina there aren't actually any polls but again if Harris is doing this well and if her momentum continues she definitely could keep it under 12 points as she improves with Suburban white voters and African-American voters and then for Kam Harris the same thing applies for States like New Mexico Minnesota Nebraska's second district New Hampshire and Maine at large so these are all states that I think will be likely margins but there is actually one exception here main at large according to the polls will actually be a safe margin as most polls released between Harris and Trump show her winning by double digits in the state which is very very interesting again the rest of the states are likely margins I think New Hampshire's average is something like 6 and a half for kamla Minnesota is about seven for kamla New Mexico I think the average would be about 7 or eight there isn't an actual average shown and then Nebraska's second probably about five or six for Harris according to the poll now again like I said Maine at large is a little different and as you can see Maine's second district is fairly interesting too so Maine I don't think the second district will vote for kamla but as you can see according to this she is leading by five points in the second district which would be about a 12o shift to the left from 2020 which would be very good news for the Democrats and this would be a likely margin and a flip but again that's very unlikely to happen still though according to these polls will and then the next State Virginia which I think the average is probably around like four or five points for Harris as there were there was actually two polls really showing Trump winning but then there have been a lot of polls recently that have countered that there was like a you know Harris plus 14 Harris plus 10 you know a couple of high leaning poles for Harris so I think that would balance it out enough to where she leads by likely margin so good news for Harris and then after this we have a couple of states where I do believe you know Trump is going to win by a fairly good margin you know States like Texas and Florida but some polls recently have disagreed with that and I'll start with Texas because or all start with Florida actually it's a slightly smaller State less electoral votes and the aggregate shows up being a 4 plus 1% win for Trump and as you can see there haven't been any polls released since the debate and it's going to be interesting to see where those polls uh show the race but again this this is a lean margin for Donald Trump according to most most of the recent polls and probably what the post- debate polls will show because again Harris did win in my opinion and I think the polls will reflect that for sometime maybe not for a super long time but it will show that Harris did in fact win the debate and then Texas this is a trump plus six margin and I believe it yeah it shrunk a little it was a 6.1% lead for Trump as you can see there was no poll released post debate I think if there is one released soon it's going to be probably around a trump Plus plus 45 margin which is going to shift the average down but again the average is still a likely margin for Trump which is good news um it is interesting to see a map where Texas is voting to the right of Florida again because that's very unlikely to happen you know potentially it could this year but again very unlikely to happen and then there's another couple of states that I do want to talk about that um they they haven't necessarily releas any polls since the debate but again they are going to the post- debate polls will probably be out before long but we can kind of guess where they stand as of now so in Arizona this is a state where Trump has a lead of 0.6% and as you might know according to my new prediction I do have Kamala winning the state very narrowly and I do think that the average will flip back to kamla after uh some polls come out probably showing her winning by a decent margin um the most recent poll does have it Trump does have it Trump plus 0 or Trump plus one but I doubt that'll hold and I doubt this average will hold at least for now where chose Trump ahead but again he is leading as of now but uh at the end of the video I'm going to discuss a couple of scenarios and what uh could happen after I kind of go over this polling the next state Nevada another state where I don't think there have been any post debate polls coming out however when there are again another shift towards Harris this is a lead for her by 0.3% according to the average and the most recent poll was done on the 6th through 9th so before the debate it showed Trump up by 1% like like Arizona so another tilt Victory however this one is for Harris good news for her also Arizona is a flip for the Republicans next state we'll go to I guess we'll go to Wisconsin so out of Wisconsin again I don't know if any post- debate polls have been released as you can see it's a 2.9% win on the national level and again there have been no post debate polls released but again she probably will be shown leading by around a similar margin because she's already being overestimated by quite a bit but probably about 3 or 4% out of Wisconsin so still a lean margin out of the state for Harris so definitely some good news for her and then the next state we'll go to actually interestingly enough North Carolina for kamla Harris this is a state where the aggregate is actually showing her up as well very very interesting stuff she's up by 0.3% and the most recent poll was also done on the 6th through 9th which is also a one point margin for Harris so this is a tilt margin for Harris as many polls had come out recently showing her on top but again this could change don't think this will last long but with the debate happening with post debate polls not even being shown yet I think this margin will kind of be Amplified a little bit and probably will get up to close to Harris plus one but again this won't last for super duper long but again the debate will have at least a short-term effect on the polls and potentially on some early voting now if there's a second debate maybe that changes it but Trump has already said that he will not do a third debate or technically his third debate but a second debate with Harris maybe that'll change it would be interesting to see if that will but if it doesn't then this debate might stay in the minds of Voters for a little longer the next state I want to go to is I guess Georgia so Georgia Trump I believe the last time I checked he was leading the aggregate I could be wrong but yeah so he is still leading the Aggregate and as you can see the most recent pole doesn't have does have the race tied but again with Trump leading the aggregate this is a win for him so a tilt margin for Donald Trump and another flip but the the Georgia flip kind of cancels out with North Carolina going blue as they both have 16 electoral votes and now the next state I want to go to is Pennsylvania which Pennsylvania is definitely going to be the state along with Georgia and maybe Arizona that decides the race in 2024 I state that both candidates want and need to win Harris is up in the aggregate by 0.9% and as you can see the most recent poll does have the race tied now this most recent poll was still done in September and forgot to check when the poll was done in Georgia my apologies for that as you can see the most recent poll out of Georgia this is actually a uh debate day poll but it didn't you know it came out on the day of the debate so it still was pre-debate and again I think Georgia will flip back to Harris after the poll after the debate polls come out I think in the Sun Belt the debate is going to have more of an influence as there's more kind of traditional Republicans who don't like Trump and might lean towards Harris now so I think it might have more an effect there but still there might be an effect in Pennsylvania I think that the aggregate will go up to about maybe a point and a half for Harris but a 0.9% lead out of Pennsylvania is still a win for Harris nonetheless now the next state I want to talk about is Michigan which Michigan is kind of the odd one out of this video so as you can see Michigan or as you know Michigan did vote for Biden by fairly decent margin in 2020 like 2 and 1 half points I believe and in 2024 it's predicted to go to Harris by 1 Point four according to these polls now if you scroll down interestingly enough there was a poll released after the debate this is the first swing state to do so from September 11th to the 12th and surprisingly Donald Trump is ahead by one point in the state meaning that the post debate poll here does show him ahead now this might not be a super accurate poll there might be serious problems with this we'll see how it goes the average does have Harris leading but the post- debate poll does have Trump up so this is kind of a bit of an interesting uh shakeup I don't think it'll last and I think the I think the next post- debate poll that we'll see out will show Harris up but again that's just my opinion so this is the map according to the poll averages and the most recent poll in Michigan's case uh for you know kind of after the debate it's where it stands before a bunch of polls are released there's only been again one poll released out of a swing state that being Michigan but again there were four polls released on the national level which all show Harris up by four you know between 3 and 5% but an average of 4% so what does this mean for the also I do want to mention that the polls uh that were only Harris plus 3 they were both done from the 10th to 11th so that means that some of the responses were taken the day before the poll or the debate or the day of the debate so technically they might be they might still be underestimating Harris a little because as you can see the ones done that simply after the debate were actually more Harris friendly so again that's something to factor in so if Harris were to win by 4% uh if she were to win the popular vote by 4% this is how I think the map would go so of course all of these all of the Swing States you know they're still going to be competitive and stuff um I'll talk about each state uh real quickly so I do think that you know these likely States would still be likely uh main at large would be a likely margin for Kam Harris instead of safe and Trump would only win Iowa by a likely margin Nebraska First District would be very close to being a likely margin and he would still win main second by a likely margin um that that poll showing kamla winning there not very accurate and now we come down to the states that you know are really going to matter in the results I do still think that out of Florida Trump would win the state by a likely margin even in a Harris plus4 environment and by the way I do have the popular vote being about Harris plus three as of now so I'm figuring about a point shift from where I see the race and also this is probably what the polls are going to show in the coming days probably even more Harris friendly than now but again more polls are probably going to show Harris leading and doing better again as she did have a better debate performance than Trump in my opinion Texas I do still think would be a likely margin but barely just that 5% margin and I do think that it's possible it drops to a lean margin but again I think a likely margin is still more safe as you know it's going to take a lot for Harris to do super well there I don't think this is the year of Lexus or anything and Trump is still favored there now States like Michigan though I do think would be lean margins for KLA Harris around 2 and a half or 3% in this scenario where she does win the popular vote by four points and again like I said earlier just because you know Biden won the popular vote by about four and a half and KLA wins by four that doesn't mean she does worse than Biden maybe she would in some states like in the deep red and deep blue States but as a whole she's going to do better in the swing States in my opinion or at least she will in some of them even in a normal year she'll do better in some and then the next CA or the next state Pennsylvania I do have Harris winning it by about one and a half to two points in this scenario I do already have her leading the state so just an increase in the margin and this is what the polls are probably going to show in the coming days so again a lean margin here and then also Nevada I'd say a lean margin probably by about 1.5% Harris will improve here by and again I have her winning as of now so she probably would win the state by about one and a half in a Harris plus 4 uh environment which is about a point more than I think it will be and then out of Arizona also a lean margin but a closer lean margin probably about a 0 point I don't know five or I'm sorry A 1 Point probably just 5% win maybe a little little under than other than that but still a lean margin as they do have kamla winning the state and then out of Georgia also I do think it would be either a low lean or high tilt margin as I'm very undecided on the state but I do have Harris winning it as of now and this would be a lean margin for her as well so good news for her and then out of Wisconsin a tilt margin for Harris even though the polls uh think differently I do think that in a Harris plus 4 environment she would win it's still buy a little less than Biden but it's one of those one of the only where I think that would be less than Biden's margin and then North Carolina tilt margin for Trump by about 0.75% maybe 0.5% I have the margin being about the same as 2020 but in a plus4 environment I do think it's a tot margin now where do I think the polls will stand after today or after the debate well let's just figure that I'm not going to talk about the states where you know there's obviously a polling mess up or you know it's it's not a super close Race So ignoring main second the obvious you know bad polls out of there and then also taking away you know more likely Democratic states just take those away now we're left with the true Battleground States in this election also take away Alaska so Arizona Nevada Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia now keep in mind the polls have ARS up already by about 3 in Wisconsin I think it's going to be by about four after this debate so a lean margin probably between three and four there isn't a whole lot more room to inflate Harris here so it's going to be hard to go up a lot but still a lean margin and then out of Michigan also a lean margin probably by about three maybe two and a half to 3% I don't think she's going to increase just too too much here but still there is going to be an uptick in the polls for her in my opinion maybe only to two and a half as we did see that one poll come out showing Trump actually doing better now so maybe again the debate will have more an of an impact in Harris's favor in the r or in the Sun Belt than the rustbell but still I think Michigan will be a lean morgin and then psylvia lean margin as well bringing it up from that 0.9% margin to probably about Z or I'm sorry 1 Point probably 5 to two points so a lean margin for Harris and then Nevada I think will be brought up to a lean margin by about probably it it'll probably show Harris leading probably about 1.5% in my opinion so not a huge increase but still a win for her and then out of Arizona this is a flip from where the average shows it now I do have Harris actually probably leading the polls in the coming week or so I do think that she's going to take the lead again but very narly and then out of Georgia same thing I expect her to take the lead here by about probably 0.5% as well again these Sun Belt states these are going to be the ones that matter because Arizona and Georgia they both have Trump up in the aggregate as of now but I don't expect that to hold as again you know these states have a lot of traditional Old Guard conservatives who are not thrilled with Trump and that debate performance is just going to you know hype that up even more as he was kind of harping on more populist rhetoric and more you know anti- Old Guard rhetoric and that's you know definitely not going to help but also I think Harris came across as more um civil uh for some of the debate I'm not saying she had a good performance by any means but she just had a better performance than Trump when it came to actually you know her appearance policy-wise and you know like positions I think Trump probably won overall there was a couple of topics where Harris definitely won but again on per uh performance and you know appearance Harris won and then out of North Carolina I think the polls will show her up by a lean margin probably as you know she's already up by a tilt margin and I do think the polls will amplify uh Harris's win in the debate and that's going to that's definitely going to show in the coming days I could be wrong about this map but again this is what I think the polls will show in the next coming days so like we do already know Harris is definitely doing better than she was I mean we didn't see we we have seen a couple of you know Harris plus four or five polls but you know the last two polls did show Harris up by five and then the two before that Harris plus three so this could be potentially very good news for a campaign this could be what it takes to put her over the 270 to win and this could be what makes her America's first female president so I hope you did enjoy this video comment down below what your prediction is and what you think the polls will show in the next few weeks and if that debate actually does matter so again thank you for watching and I'll see you guys next time