DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks | Southern 500 | Darlington

Intro what's up everybody Welcome to the video we're here breaking down the cookout Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway aka the track to tough to tame blooding the black either way one of my most favorite tracks in the Nascar Cup Series this will be a night race on Sunday night September 1st around 700 p.m. Eastern and really quick I just have to mention last week that was probably the best atona race I have seen in quite some time we were three wide two wide insane Rex we had a couple flips well one flip about a half a flip and just an insane finish a cool storyline Harrison Burton winning with his dad in the booth and just such a wild winner too Harrison Burton over Kyle Bush being pushed by Parker rlof I mean that just completely describes Daytona all the junkers from the back came to the front a lot of them finished high just absolutely incredible race hopefully you all enjoyed but anyway this happens to be your first time here what's up my name is Chris Pell I break down NASCAR DFS each and every single week on this channel videos on Saturdays live streams on Sundays this will also be the last live stream of the season with Football starting so if you want to come in say hi for the last time live I'll still be doing my videos probably planning for around an hour or two before the race starts so come and say hi always a good time and usually I would shout out last week's comment contest winner here but nobody picked Cody wear which again Daytona Cody wear are the highest scoring drivers so if we want to back this weekend we're going to go back to the lap sled so all you got do is comment down below who you think is going to lead the most laps and how many in the winner will get a cash prize if you enjoy make sure you a like down below subscribe to channel if you're brand new let's dive right into it all right let's talk some strategy here for Strategy Darlington kind of a unique track just because there's not really another track that really exactly plays out how Darlington is the way it's shaped it's not a 1.5 it's also not a short track 1.3 mil in length kind of egg shaped I guess if you will and I would say the most similar tracks to Darlington are going to be Homestead when you can Rim ride and it also eats tires which is exactly how Darlington is just not as big and then also Dober it's a steeper tract and it eats tires just it's smaller at one mile and then homestead's 1.5 so I guess it's kind of like if they had a baby but then the concrete just didn't really take over if that makes any sense that's what we're going to call Darlington here and you can also look at the other 1.5 mile tracks we've been at this year I think that's probably the best way to go about it but we do have more laps here than we did in the spring with this being a 500 mile race 367 laps if you take that by 7 not doing the math in my head but it is a lot it's more than a 1.5 mile track so we're going to need at least two dominators and we could even startch to three depending on how qualifying works out and the pricing and guys that could potentially dominate but you're going to want at least two and I don't think we have any weather concerns this weekend but I do want to show you guys green flag speed sheet just to give you guys an idea of who we should expect to be fast based off their speed rankings at similar tracks whether it was last year this year combination of either but we look at the intermediate tracks which we are classifying Darlington as an intermediate this weekend as you can see it's usually the same faces almost every single time it's going to be Hamin lson as always and then Byron reic Trux chest name Bell if you look at the 2024 overall which you can weigh in once again Hamond Larson Byron 3x reic and it's usually some combination of that if we're looking at the specific Tire combination which I believe uses Homestead last year I think there's a DOA race in there and some mixture of 1.5 remember at the top of my head but I I did remember when I was doing it so this is accurate but once again even with the tire combination it's Hamlin Larson and then Ty Gibbs surprisingly up there and then blay Trix reic and if we look at the overall the way I want to wait this we have hman Larson once again Byron re TRX plainy and Gibb so if we didn't have practice but I'm assuming we are but it's always a good extra data to have but these are the guys you'd expect to be fast and I believe if you look at the Vegas odds it does kind of reflect pretty similar to how this list goes and finally moving on to the driver by Driver Breakdown driver breakdown I do mention one thing first that is of course if you want to join the best Nascar DFS Community out there link is down Bel the description or the pinned comment for that also NFL content coming very soon which I do do it in a very similar fashion to NASCAR so if you like the NASCAR stuff they probably going to like the NFL stuff you can join the Discord the optimize ownership projections I run simulations for the entire slate do that for NFL as well so you want to come in check it out and you where to find it link will be found down below and as you all know I'm a partner of stochastic and you can check out the NASCAR Sims tools which you can upload mine your own or the already custom one set on these site projections and see which on St up the best in tournaments or which drivers offer the best Roi before the race starts want to come in check it out and tell them I sent you make sure you hit the link down below and make sure to check out our sponsor outlier the best betting platform out there you can have all the tools you need for posi VV betting insights data statistics and much much more making betting easy easier you can use the link Down Below in the description or the pinned comment for a free trial give them a try and I know you'll love it all right it's the next day and practicing qualifying just concluded and I would say there was some surprises for sure you have Bubba Wallace Carson josar and Chase Brisco as the top three drivers in qualifying I would say no one probably expected that but while it's the least surprising of that Bunch but uh a little interesting there but they are surrounded by some pretty lead drivers who would expect to contend to win the race practice I'm not really sure how much I want to put into practice because it just seems all over the place ignore Ricky stouse he wrecked in practice so he did not get to do a qualifying lap and since he wrecked early he didn't get to make a long run and obviously a Darlington the longer your run is the more you're going to fall off so when you don't do that many laps yeah obviously your averages are going to look a bit better same with Eric Jones as you can see nothing here these guys have nothing here like yeah they're going to end up averaging just a little bit better when you're not running as many laps as some other drivers so that's something to keep in mind but I mean of group a who is in the yellow and then Group B is in no shading Ric Larson did look like the top dogs I thought Denny Hamlin looked really good as well didn't look as great in the long run but again I'm I'm not really sure how much I want to put into that practice session so I'm not going to talk about a ton is a driver's track and the guys that you would expect to perform here usually end up doing so so let's start with the five figure range in up first and these are my this is my first run down through the entire slate with you guys more polish stuff will be on the patreon in the live stream tomorrow tomorrow but looking at this range obviously all four of these drivers you'd expect to be race winning contenders sty hman Larson reck and Byron you guys are wondering what bets I have this week and I actually have like four outrights not all of them equal up to one unit I think it's less than three units total but I do have Den hin to win at plus 750 reic to win it or 700 reic to win at plus 750 Byron to win at plus 1200 and then Gibbs to win at plus 1,600 which I don't hate any of those as of right now which dny qualified a little bit better but I do think all those guys that have some pretty strong cars so we'll see what we can come up with but anyway Denny hman up here at $11,000 he'll be starting a 14th and I do think he's an excellent play here he's obviously very good at Darlington he's been great at these types of tracks fired off quick and practice faded off a little bit but again I am not going to get too caught up in some of these practice numbers and if we have the darling nextg numbers pulled up is he a winner no but is he one of the best dominators and one of the best finishers and one of the drivers with the best average running positions and whatnot yes and starting 14th you get a littleit of PD upside I think there's nothing wrong with Denny over on fandel probably going to have more of them over there just because the dominer points aren't going to add up as much and starting deeper in the field it's going to be harder to get dominer points but he's $1,000 cheaper than the most expensive driver and you g me more PD with race wining upside yeah love Denny hman over there KY Larson Tyler reck and William Byron I feel like we should probably group these guys together because they're all going to offer very similar upside all these drivers have ran extremely well at Darlington in the past they're all pretty fast at these larger intermediate well I shouldn't say larger but at these inter intermediate type tracks they're all pretty decently quick in practice so I would really just mix my exposure between them if I had to pick one projection wise I think KY Larson will end up being the highest for me he is the most recent winner here for the southern 500 uh earlier in the year it was I believe Brett Kowski who came up with the win but Tyler reic absolutely dominated that race so all look like excellent options but ranking wise I would say it's probably how their price with Larson Ric and William Byron but if larsson's going to be like the chalki of the three love pivoting to reck and Byron in tournaments moving down to the 9k range we have Brett Kowski at 9800 bucks he's starting in 12th most recent winner here and Kowski is really good at managing his tires so no surprise he is pretty solid at Darlington where it's a track where it's going to eat up your tires you can see has a win here two top fives and four top 10 in five races I'd expect Brad to be Contender is he going to win the race I'm not going to rule it out but I would say he's probably going to be a borderline top fiveish car throughout the day Martin trcks Jr he started in fifth he has been snake bitten at this track he runs exceptionally well here he gets a lot of dominer points as you can see here at Darlington he only Trails Tyler reic and Denny Hamlin in the next gen era for laps LED at this track he's also second in fast laps only behind Tyler reic Martin trick Jr runs awesome here the problem is he just can't finish I think he has four dnfs and five races only has one top 20 finish to show for it despite overall extremely good numbers 11.7 outage running position but a 25.8 average finish so I think he'll be good it's just a matter of if he can keep it alive I think he's an excellent tournament play starting in fifth he's also very good at managing his tires and he should be quick here and while we would pretty much view him safe for the playoffs he still needs to get a pretty good run here Christopher Bell 9,300 bucks he's starting at Ninth I don't think I'm going to have a ton of Christopher Bell I'm not going to roll him out just to play some of him obviously he is one of the best drivers in the series but I do think there's other drivers that will probably have a better chance of getting dominer points in this race like TRX like keslowski Byron reck lson ha everyone we talked about I would say he's definitely a step below these guys so probably I'm not going to have too much Christopher Bell and Chase zot starts 11 spots further back I feel like they both have very similar finishing position upside and if you look at how they've ran at Darlington the next gen era average finish is pretty much the same running positions a little bit worse for Chase Elliott but two top fives three top 10 like I feel like Elliott can pretty much be the same finish wise as Bell maybe just a little bit worse but when you're going to start 11 spots for their back and be a little bit cheaper and $2,000 cheaper over on FanDuel I would just take Chase Elliott in that scenario droing down the AK range Ryan blay 800 bucks not very good here at Darlington but he has been getting better has strung together a couple top 10 finishes in the next gen era probably not a huge fan of him on this SL I'd rather play Chase Elliott personally I'd rather play Joey Lano who starts many many spots further back and just kind of eyeballing this AK range he looks like he might just be my least favorite play of the bunch so I'm probably not going to play that much blany joeey Lano starting all the way back in 23rd like him on both SES here um Ford did run pretty well Ste host did earlier in this season here and then RFK as well but Joey Lano specifically at Darlington been pretty good in the next gen era does have a win when he kind of bodied William Bay out of the way two top fives some Downer points in the fourth best average rank position I believe starting all the way back in 23rd I don't think he's going to be a top five Contender but if he can be like 10th around 10th I mean perfectly fine with me so I don't think Joey's a bad play in cash games but f is very cheap busher almost won this race early in the season got into it with Tyler reick at the very end but he was right there in the mix I think he's a fine tournament play Tai GBS feels like the same exact play as Chris buscher but with him starting three spots further back I would prefer him on DraftKings being $200 chaper but over on FanDuel $2,000 more expensive than Chris busher I'd probably just rather play busher over on the blue site so I guess just we're on DraftKings we prefer Gibbs on FanDuel I would say busher because upside is pretty similar I would say rash Tain cheap on DraftKings cheap on fandel we starting in 22nd this has been a good track for him in the next gen era does have a couple of recks here which has kind of muddied the numbers a little bit but he has been a dominator in the past he does have the third most fast laps as well so starting in 22nd I will definitely take some stabs on Ros chest say I could see him being pretty chalky too at that price point going down to the 7K range Kyle Bush I got to give him respect for not wrecking Harrison Burton I think a lot of people people would have done that in that scenario especially Austin Dylan his teammate but clean racer and I guess we'll give him some respect for that but pretty cheap on draft K 700 bucks cheap on fandel as well he runs pretty good here at Darlington but again it's just been really tough to trust this a car because more often than not they just don't end up working out I'm not going to roll him out though I think he's like a slightly worse play compared to Ros Chastain and they know they really have to fight for the playoffs here so it's got some extra added motivation but the same can be said for a lot of drivers just because someone wants to win and needs to win doesn't mean they are going to win you have to keep that in mind so he's like probably going to be Fringe as far as making the player pull for me then we have Bubba Wallace the PO sitter at only 7,700 bucks and I think there's a legit chance he could dominate a good portion of stage one we seen him have a lot of speed intermediates before I trying to remember off the top of my head what the most recent race was at a intermediate I can picture it on my head but I forget the track oh Michigan larger track than Darlington obviously not the same configuration exactly and obviously the surfaces are much different but Wallace was extremely fast early on then obviously got caught up into some issues but starting in the poll here with clean air he's starting beside Carson josar which we would assume bubble Wallace is going to beat out Carson josar he's going to have Chase Brisco in the second row the main issue here is that we have Cy Larson also in the second row and then obviously guys like Ric Byron TRX just sitting there waiting but B Wallace can pull away 7700 bucks for dominant points for a guy that probably has a chance to finish in the top eight or potentially win the race we've seen Bubba win some races like this before I think Bubba's fine 7700 bucks for a cheap Dominator there's a lot of laps in this race and if you look at the darling to next 10 numbers Bo Wallace has actually been really good four top 10 finishes which is tied for the most with guys like William Byron and Brett keslowski so yeah I think B Wallace like tournaments maybe even cash games could be pushing it as the poll Setter because I don't think he's going to dominate the entire race and then if he Fades back enough he could just completely erase those dominer points but I think he will be strong in this one so I don't have an issue with it I guess the only issue I have is that there's also some really good PD plays he's right by you have roses in 22nd bush in 17th Bowman in 27th who's had some decent runs at Darlington in the past Eric Jones incredible here obviously in a legacy C so can't really expect too much but it was quick early on in practice so there's definitely risk with bubble Wallace but there's also a pretty high ceiling and if he can lock in 10 15 diamer points at the beginning of the race that's going to be enough if he can stay within the top 10 which he typically does here at Darlington B Jones fine PD plays I'm not going out my way to lock them in but on both sites they're pretty cheap and they have top 15 upside Chase Brisco I will be fading I if Chase Brisco beats me starting in third so be it if he's going to be optimal he's probably going to have to beat up Wallace at the beginning of the race and lead some laps which I think is an unlikely scenario I would rather play Josh Barry his teammate who ran very well here early in the season starting at 15th he could be a fine turnament play as most people will probably flock to gron Eric Jones Bowman but Wallace Kyle bus in this price range I would assume rco be the lowest and then probably Josh Barry next and then Noah gron in same equipment as Josh Barry starting far enough back double the spots where yeah he's fine starting at 29th pretty much the same category as Jones or Alex Bowman you're just mixing and matching those guys for the most part Austin syri probably a fade for me starting at 11th don't really see too much upside there then we have a full-blown 30s here for the qualifying and then we have Ricky s in 36 so I feel like a lot of people are going to be sitting in this 6K range just to fill the rest of your lineup out so we have Gillan in 33rd I like that McDow in 31st Wars in 32nd SVG in 34th yes all these guys are going to be playable you want to Pivot Austin Dylan would be the guy but I just don't really think it's necessary we have stous starting dead last because he got uh into it in practice and couldn't make a qualifying lap so it's not like he earned the 36th Place running position so yeah St house is probably my favorite and then after that honestly just kind of flip a coin on Suarez McDow and Todd Gillan SVG would be my least favorite of that Bunch but plenty of good 6K plays here to round your lineups out with no chance I touch hos ofar starting in second if he dominates the race whatever I've lost worse ways before for the Joy No thank you in 19th please just try to find some extra money for these 6K guys there's so much more upside there and a better floor Justin Haley I'm not going to Ru Justin Haley up just because for some reason really good at Darlington five R sample size 12.6 average finish the running position 20 seconds so obviously he has been getting lucky but still three top 10 finishes in five races I think he should run top 20 is and he's only 5700 bucks and if some of these guys just end up getting into issues they finish 25th and Haley squeaks out a 14th yeah I don't mind that in gbps Ryan priest is also in play if you're just looking for a punt but after that I don't think I'd play anybody below Ryan priest so if you're playing any 5k drivers Haley and priest for me other than that I would stick with stous Suarez McDow gilland as your cheap place Outro with that being said that's all I got for you guys this week so I hope you enjoyed if you did even if you didn't make sure you a like down below subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet done so we posting my NFL video Sunday morning if you want to come in check that out there look for week one in the last live stream of the season will be later on Sunday if you want to come in and slay high for the last time I'd love to see you that being said that's all I got I wish you the best of luck and I'll see you all next time