Will Ludvig Aberg Get SIGNATURE WIN At BMW Championship? Golf & PGA Picks | Links & Locks

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Introduction networks golf betting podcast presented by B 365 I'm your host Andy lack and I'll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartor for these Best Bets episodes Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week's Tour event the BMW championship before we dive into this week's episode a reminder that the links bet365 Promo and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn't do ordinary that's why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don't stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it's never ordinary at Bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply okay Tony we're on the first te here for our BMW Championship Best Bets get us started so bet 365 has this number a Xander Schauffele little longer than ever else in the market right now and it made it long enough to point where I will take the bait and that's on Xander Schley outright at 6 to1 I know that's not the uh most beautiful number in the world but in a 50-man field I really like how he profiles and his chances this week so we're going back to Castle Pine's golf club for the first time since 2006 and it's going to play over 8,100 yards but again it's in Colorado so in actually if you're adjusting for the altitud they say that's it's going to feel like it's playing around 73 to 7,400 which and then with that in mind I think accuracy is way more important this week than distance everyone's going to be hitting the ball far in this altitude but there are an abundance of Hazards lying this golf course and um staying safe both off the te and on the approach is going to be super super important this week and that brings me to Xander shley who's been one of the most well rounding golfers over the past few months he's finished inside the top 15 eight straight tournaments and he has he's won two major championships over that stretch he's also finished runner up at the Wells Fargo and in last week's FedEx sju Championship obviously that resume speaks for itself it's been an incredible year for him and he's been more accurate off the tea than the field average in each of his past three tournaments when including the Olympics and I think that success will continue on this Jack Nicholas design track um I'm gonna my last point for this is that he clearly likes Nicholas's work because he's posted seven straight top 25 finishes at mirfield and I think mirfield will be a good comparison for play this week not only because it's another Nicholas design but that course also heavily rewards accuracy and um so I like that as a comparison this week and you can never go wrong with sha Le so that's six to one he's my first outright winner Target yeah I'm totally with you um I I I couldn't take the plunge on the outright number there were a lot more um a lot more guys in the 20s and 30s that I wanted to be able to fit on my betting card uh but I bet Xander 11 to1 first round later I actually prefer Xander to Scotty this week um I'm definitely my breakdown of the course I think is a little different I'm not as high on the accuracy over distance I I personally think this is more of a a bit more of a distance over accuracy test and I I actually think that is Xander's biggest advantage over Sheffer is his ball speed um Sheffer is a far more accurate driver of the ball than than Xander and I think that helps him at uh you know golf courses like well golf National mirfield Village uh TBC sass all golf courses that Xander plays great at too I mean he is a phenomenal total driver of the ball he's by no means inaccurate um but I think this type of golf course that is not as much of a pure accuracy test in my opinion as what we've seen a little bit recently I think the ability to spray the ball a little bit more off the te with the the the less thin air density um causes a straighter ball flight um for a lot of these folks I think that's going to help out guys like wendam Clark as well one of the things I was observing in a lot of the videos that I watched at the uh on this golf course is that the ball is just it's going to be harder to create a lot of spin um and that's kind of the big thing that I worry about with Xander the big overhook with the driver that can often get him into trouble um I think it's a phenomenal Golf Course for him I think it's going to be kind of easy um not crazy easy but I think the emphasis his his ability to putt um is is going to be tremendously tremendously important and you know the way that I would describe this golf course is it's Valhalla with Augusta's terrain uh and Xander's been pretty good at both those two places particularly balla by my note so Xander shly 11 to1 uh first round later glad to be on the same page with you there absolutely I'm going to take us back back to the outright winner Market I'm going to go after Aaron Ry 45 to1 I know Aaron Rai it's my third straight week targeting him but I just think he's in such great form right now he's made the weekend in 14 of his past 15 tournaments he's got four top seven finishes over his past six he's been absolutely dialed no matter really what part of the game but he's been really a sniper in terms of um accuracy I know we're disagreeing a little bit on accuracy this week but he's that's still it's not definitely not going to hurt him and but more importantly than that he's gained true Strokes on the approach in 10 of his past 11 tournaments so game G really be um coming together for Ry all around and um I think he just profiles well for this venue he's got dominant recent form and we see so many times in playoffs guys can kind of get hot and they can kind of run away with it a little bit like we saw that Glover winning the first round playoffs after he won the Windom last year and I just think Ry can still carry that momentum from winning the Windom two weeks ago into this week so at 45 to one I think that number is just a little long on Aaron Ry I am going to uh provide my first outright w this week in ludvig Oar at 24 to1 um I Ludvig Aberg you know I I agree with you on accuracy just kind of more of a total driving this week with with a bit more of an emphasis on distance and when I think about total driving um lck's still number one for me in this field when you combine distance and accuracy there may not be a better driver of the ball when he's on his game than ludvig o uh another kind of one of the other reasons why I like lvg on a golf course that we've never seen before is I think lvic is inherently at a disadvantage at a lot of PGA Tour courses because he's playing against players that have 5 10 years of experience playing these golf courses and for ludvig it's his first time seeing them um I kind of like the fact that everybody's starting from scrp year right I I like the fact that any course history Advantage has been neutralized um and it's just going to come down you know less so to T to to experience and and more so to Talent uh and I I'm I'm taking L vig's Talent I'm putting his talent up there with the very best in this entire field so I think it's a good bu low spot we were betting this guy to win majors at 16 to1 and now I'm getting him at 24 to1 in a 50-man field um I think it's time I think this is the time that that L breaks through and I think this is a perfect golf course for him to do it at I absolutely love that play that's a tremendous number I didn't even see I'm I'm probably gonna tell you on that I really like that I'm going to uh stick or keep us in the outright market and Adam Scott I'm going to go after a little bit of a longer shot and go after Adam Scott at 55 to one and the reason I like him this week he's just playing such a high floor level of golf right now that in a 50-man field do I think it's likely he wins no but I don't think he's out of the question at 55 to1 he entered this week in great form he's made the weekend in 12 of his past 13 tournaments he's got four top 15 finishes over that stretch and what makes me kind of about like with Aaron Ry too what makes me impressed about Scott's recent play is just a solid all-around game he's hitting the ball far he's remained accurate both off the te and on the approach he's gained true Strokes on every Green he's been on recently and he's scrambling well when needed to and he's also typically thrived on Nicholas chuses he's finished inside the top 10 in five his past 13 appearances at mirfield and I just think there's so many things that profile well for him that yes none of them are like profiling as the best which is why we're getting 55 to one but when you have such a high floor of this success across the board I just think there's worse D throws to make especially if you have a couple guys on the top Year card they're paying out less So Adam Scott at 55 to one is a play I like this week at that number love that I'm gonna stick in the outright Market um for another play in Patrick Cantlay that that 20 to 25 Zone um I bet Patrick Klay actually got a 26 on him there's still 22s available across the board uh 22 on bet 365 which I have absolutely no problems with when you get the enhanced um I bet Klay last week and it felt like that bet was dead on Thursday when he shot a plus two um and it was really unfortunate because he was one of the best players on the entire Golf Course over the next three days um and it was really just one bad round that s his tournament he just was in catchup mode uh the rest of the week but ended up moving from nearly dead last to T12 um by tournaments and on Sunday and you know this is a guy that's won two out of the last three BMW championships I think this is going to play on the easier side you know if you think it's going to play on the harder side he won at Wilmington at 14 under he won at Caves Valley at 27 under both of those treelined Parklands B grass golf courses you mentioned mirfield Village the Jack Nicholas connection he's got two wins at mirfield Village as well um this is the time of year where Klay always seems to heat up and I really think his T12 was misleading last week I I think that he really had one bad round and he fought admirably to get himself back into a high finish um I think he improves upon that this week and will be significantly in the mix uh in Denver this week yeah I absolutely like that um I'm going to do one more outright winner as well and I'm going to go after Shane Lowry at Shane Lowry 70 to1 and you were just talking about buying low with ludvig earlier I think 70 to1 is a pretty damn good by low price on Shane Lowry he's not played his best golf over the past month but we know what this guy's stealing still is he's a guy that has always elevated his play whenever it comes to Majors or whenever it's a more elevated event for lack of better words um he finished six at the us or at the Open Championship and six at the PGA Championship while winning down in New Orleans alongside Rory the ceiling is there I think just has not been playing his best brand of golf over the past few tournaments which is why we're gained 70 to1 I think that number is just too long um he's shown success on Nicholas corses he's made the weekend at the memorial in four straight years and he finished six there in 2021 um and he's like I said earlier he's just a guy that seemingly always elevates his games against Elite competition which obviously he will see this week I just think for a guy that usually scores well in major championships and tourament of that stat year 70 to1 is a very good D throw this week uh I have one more outright for us and that is Tony fenal at 32 to1 um I I Tony Finau I love Tony feno on this golf course when I when I created my Castle Pines model it was you know the useful suspects at the top Xander Scotty Rory and then number four for me was Tony fow um you know he has a lot of experience playing in altitude he was actually via his Instagram uh Buddy's Instagram that second or third hand somehow knows fal's playing golf with him at Glen Wild a golf course out in Utah that plays at massive altitude and features a ton of elevation changes a fio golf course that I reminds me of Castle Pines in a lot of ways and I think adjusting to the altitude is going to be a big challenge for these guys you know figuring out the right clubs to hit um adjusting for some of those massive elevation changes and I like a player that that's done it before has some familiarity playing at altitude um I think he could hit his I think his driver yields a tremendous Advantage at this golf course uh he's been a phenomenal iron player this year one of the best iron players in this field one of the best long iron players in this field but 32 to1 uh was an awfully Fair number this week on Tony feno yeah I was right there with you and how we typically do things on this show I have him also been the first round leader Market at 30 to1 um not to reate say just seems like a great fit he's made the weekend 11 of his past 12 tournaments nine top 18 finishes of that stretch I've taken him a lot outright recently as well and I keep just missing out on him despite like a top 10 finish and I just decid this week I'd rather just Target him on Thursday especially because he ranks 14th on tour this season in round one scoring average but um I like him for all the reasons you like him and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins outright as well I just decided to go for the little bit longer payout in the first round leader Market but I love both plays and finally he finished a he was solo first- round leader at the 2020 Memorial again just doing that Nicholas comparison but if he can do that there I think he can do that there here this week as well I love that I will give us uh since you took us in the first round later Market I have one more Justin Thomas I already mentioned the Xander 11 to1 first round later um but I also bet Justin Thomas 35 to1 first round later uh I thought those was a pretty good number on JT uh and and I actually liked some of what I saw with JT last week I know that he only finished um 30th uh in the 70 man field but he gained over three Strokes on approach he's played really well in the FedEx Cup playoffs in the past um he's a former winner at the BMW Championship he's had a lot of success um on B grass and before uh I think this golf course you know he was just not hitting enough Fairways in Memphis that is a narrow narrow golf course with thick Bermuda rough um and JT was just not hitting enough Fairways to really compete at this golf course he's got more room off the te here um I I really expect JT to allow his irons to do the talking this week I think we're going to get up a push from him towards the end of the season he needs to have a good week to qualify for East Lake he's he's never not qualified for East Lake outside of his one uh miss last year and and I think he he really wants to he really wants to come back with a vengeance and make sure he's in that season finale next week um I think we get I think we get uh get his best stuff and I think he gets off to a really hot start he's been one of the best round one performers this year uh which is what I really like to Target so JT 35 to1 first round later I like that I'm going to keep us at the exact same Mark at the exact same price and that's Cory Conor's at 35 to1 to Corey Conners lead after the first round um you just talked about round round one scoring average average Conor's ranks 12th on tour this year in that category so clearly early scoring is not the concern in fact late scoring has been the concern as someone who has been burned by this guy in the outright Market seemingly every other week but he's always a safe bet to you know put together a good round and put together a good week but he's not got over the hump at all in terms of getting um victories so that's why I'm switching over to the first round leader Market this week for Connors but this is a guy who's not missed a cut since June of last year that's 28 straight tournaments where he's played the weekend if you include the Olympics he boast 13 top 20 finishes over that stretch and I am still a firm believer in the fact that he will eventually reach that next level but again just because one I've I've getting burned by him but two he scores so much better in the first than he does the other three rounds this year I think there's just more value in his first round leader number at 35 to1 and lastly I know I've talked about this before we've both talked about this before a lot he's one of the best ball Strikers in the planet on the planet he's gained true Strokes on the approach in 25 straight tournaments that puts him in like the shle and Sheffer class of ball striking so at 35 to1 I think there's worse bets for someone to lead after Thursday than Cory Connor love that I'm going to take us into the top 10 Market uh with the number one player that Viktor Hovland missed my betting card this week uh I bet him plus 140 um in the top 10 market and that's Victor hlin I wanted to find room for him uh on the betting card this week but he just was the last man out and I'm going to be kicking myself if this is the the one he gets the victory but I've got a little bit of a hedge in place with the top 10 um you know what we saw from Victor hin last week was vintage Victor hin um you know when Victor hin is at his best he's a top five ball striker in the field and he is a plus putter not a crazy great putter but gains around three Strokes putting and he's neutral around the green um havin finished T2 he finished one stroke back of the lead he lost one stroke around the greens was Plus putting top five and off the tea and on approach right so like that is the formula for hin like tread water around the green be a good not great Putter and be you know top 10 in approach and top 10 off the te um I think he can do that at this golf course I think this is an even better Golf Course for him than the one that we saw in Memphis you know he's the defending Champion here I'll buy it at a different golf course in Olympia Fields I think there's some similarities to Olympia Fields in this in this place it's not a perfect comp but I think the winning score will be in a similar ballpark I think he'll have a lot of short irons in like he did at Olympia Fields be able to dominate this golf course off the T So Victor hin plus 140 to finish in the top 10 I'm going to go back to the first round leader Market one last time for me and that's Alex norin at 50 to1 um like Alex Noren I was talking about Scott in the outright Market earlier norin is one of my favorite High floor candidates in this field I'm not sure he possesses the juice to take down likes of a Scotti or a Xander on Sunday but I firmly believe is capable talent-wise of claiming a round and why not the opening round um he's typically been a stronger starter than finisher he ranks fourth on tour this season round one scoring average which puts him along on Scotty Xander and other top guys right around that Mark and going back to that high floor nor has made the weekend 20 of his past 23 tournaments and he's got five top 10 finishes over that stretch um again I just don't necessarily trust them with the big guys come Sunday if he is towards top of the leaderboard but in order to even get towards the top of that leaderboard that me these guys start start the tournament strong and at 50 to1 I don't think it's out of the question that noran leads after Thursday like that I'm going to take us into the top 20 Market uh and go with Robert McIntyre plus 115 top 20 I love Robert MacIntyre this play I was surprised to get plus money on him to finish basically just better than field average in a 50-man field uh one of my favorite plays on the board I mean Bobby Max coming off a Seventh Place finish uh in Memphis where you know he gained Strokes uh in both ball striking categories gained over five Strokes putting he putts great on Ben grass he's already won this season on bankr he's already won this season on a driver heavy golf course at at at the Genesis Scottish open I think his power off the te here I think his long iron play is one of the best long iron players in the field um I think Bobby Mack's going to surprise this week with a uh with a top 20 finish I I I thought that was a great number to get Plus money on him there I absolutely agree and thank you for making my job easy because my next play was Bobby Mack top 10 at plus 450 he so my uh maybe this is too simplistic of thinking but my thought PR says he just finished seventh last week as you said so why not B him to do it once again against an even smaller field he's really been incredible over the second half of the Season he has five top 10 finishes over his past 12 tournaments which by napkin math alone that makes plus 450 a profitable number obviously this field is tough right but he fired off top 10 finishes at both the PGA Championship and again at last week's playoff event against equally tough competition so in a 50-man field I just think plus 450 on a guy who's played this well and who fits this course for all the reasons you said is a good number to take for Bobby Mack to finish aside the top 10 I've got uh one more top 20 who's also uh at plus odds which I thought was strong in this uh in this very small field will alot torus top 20 Will Zalatoris plus 120 um some serious signs of life from zot Torres last week he gained Strokes in both ball striking categories uh top 12 finish one of his best in honestly a couple of months um and I I expect him to continue and parlay that momentum in the next week what I saw um from zelot torus last week it was not really um it wasn't really a flash in the pan he did it in a very sustainable way um and this is a great Golf Course for him if we get the A+ version of zalot Torus that we were used to you know I brought up you know the mirfield village and Jack Nicholas and kind of a Val Hall with a gust of terrain salot Taurus has been unbelievable on these you know Augusta benr greens long irons massive elevation changes driver heavy mirfield Village Jack Nicholas a lot of the similar deal like I think this is a great Golf Course for zot Torres if he's playing well um and I'm happy to to take the leap with him at at plus 120 uh to finish top 20 this week I'm so glad you're on him because he was literally the last guy off my card so I'm glad one of us got to him I'm going to go the top 10 Market I'm gonna go after Max grman Max Greyserman at plus 550 finish inside the top 10 he's finished runner up in two of his past three tournaments and while those right venues are against competition that was not nearly as tough as what he's going to face this week plus F 550 still feels like to generous of a pay out to pass up on someone who's in this strong of form to finish inside just the top 20% of the field he's played a well-rounded game since the US Open he's G true total Strokes in eight consecutive tournaments he's made the weekend in all eight of those tournaments and graser can get himself in trouble this week maybe if he's hitting all the rough because you know sometimes he's not the most accurate ball Striker but his putter has been absolutely on fire and I think that with how hard he hits the ball too if he's just getting around the greens he's gting up and down a lot I think his score can be pretty safe and again you just to for this to pay out you needs to finish inside the top 20% of the field so at plus five or at plus 550 and someone who's in this good a form with a good recent approach game and this hot of a putter I just think there's worse guys to take than Max graser I'm going to finish this off with a a little fun bet that I always take a Hole In One Bet look at depending on the golf course when I map out my golf course is um I know there's this is some juice toay but this is going to hit and you can parlay it if you want with like I don't know Sheffer top 20 or something like uh whatever you want but n Hull and 1 minus 250 I'm pretty confident in this one uh I mapped out the golf course I looked at the par 3s um these are not easy par 3s all the measure over 200 yards even with the altitude um I expect the four par 3S to be some of the tougher holes on the golf course like I think a lot of the scoring is going to be done on the par fives and and the way that altitude really interacts with making it easier for golfers is it takes a lot it adds a lot of yardage to your drives right where you know with iron play it's it's a little bit less advantageous and these are all tough par Theses um like legitimately what I believe to be uh will be some of the harder holes on the golf course um all these guys are seeing this golf course for the first time like I I don't see it I'll take my chances with that any day of the week so I got based on the par 3s that what I'm seeing minus 250 is is value to me I know it's it's not flashy or sexy or anything but I think it's a good long-term plus EV bet uh just to add to your portfolio this week and if you want to want to Parlay it with something else but uh but yeah big fan of that I I love that bet based on the golf course uh when I'm able to sniff out you know some of the golf courses with harder Parrs because they pretty much just put it the same at every golf course and that's silly because the Parrs are not the same at any golf course so anyway I like that it big fan of thanks yeah yeah thanks join me on it I think I will that'll do it for our Best Bets episode for the BMW championship before we get out of here a final reminder that the lks and loocks bet365 Promo podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn't do ordinary that's why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don't stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see y it's never ordinary at P 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our More Golf Picks action experts Spencer aiar and Nick brat wish return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow aruo tomorrow for our BMW champ Championship betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so for Tony stor I'm your host Andy laack and we'll see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast presented by bet 365