PGA Golf Picks and Odds | 2020 BMW Championship Preview | ⛳ Tee Time from Vegas

welcome everyone to tea time it is my favorite tea time of the week four o'clock eastern time we are here to go over the pga tournament we are in playoff mode and of course joining me every week my fellow experts dave koken nick voorman uh gosh just a completely weird tournament i can't think of anything that compares to it uh it wasn't great for watching purposes it wasn't great for betting purposes it was just a whole lot of block so dave coke and i'll start with you um you have said that you hate when tournaments get to 20 under so congratulations we did not have a winner that was 20 under he was 30 under dave i'm assuming this was not a great tournament for you for watching purposes it wasn't a great tournament for me for any purposes because i took three gun i took i played three guys and none of them made the cut oh so i i i basically uh you know look i i i've had a run where i've been in serious contention on sunday for a whole bunch of weeks in a row and had the one nice win with morocco and then the stupid non-play of maracao at the pga which was still the biggest mistake i've made in any sport this year uh so i guess i was due for a for a four and i got one and that's all i have to say about that to be nick go ahead uh what did you think about the tournament man uh well i hated it uh not only was it i'm like i didn't even watch on sunday which i mean the tournament was over we're gonna watch for i did awful um anybody that that purchased my package last week i i had wager talk the customer service reach out for a credit so you can get this week's package to try to make up for it so it was awful week on top of that my wife went into emergency surgery last week so last week golf put kind of put back on the afterburner she's okay though now so it was just an awful week all together but thanks for asking yes no problem um i made the uh colossal mistake of backing jason day i made the mistake of thinking tony b now can figure out how to putt in the playoffs it was just it was it was it was really blah but i do think there are some things that possibly we could learn for from it because i like going back and saying hey we lost bets why did we lose that 30 under and 10 other guys were 15 under or or or better nick is there any takeaways from it is dj in one of these zones this is first and second before this he was miscut withdraw is dj starting to get into one of those groups what do you think it's possible um he is a very ebb and flow player and when he gets hot he stays stays hot for quite a while and he's got uh two wins in a second in his last six starts um so that's nothing to shy home about and yeah i mean you think of dj as a length guy which is true um but he's doing just as well um just as much damage on the far force right now too and him close to making a lot of birdies so you know with that in mind it's he's he's a hard guy to not expect to be up there um of course the betting markets are i mean eight to one for an outright is very very low as the favorite this week but it's hard to argue that he's not you know he shouldn't be priced around that number i mean he just looks very very scary and we've talked about it before you have especially you know when he gets off to a slow start he kind of seems to wrap it up early right and kind of lose his focus and yeah here's my towel i'm going to throw in exactly and he's gone before the weekend this weekend he's guaranteed four rounds so maybe that's even more scary if he does have a couple bad holes or a couple or one bad round maybe he can't throw in the towel and he just keeps going so i don't know he's i expect him to be good he's probably gonna be right there this week possibly right there for the tour championship it's hard to see otherwise um but i don't see me betting on him right now because i think there's just i mean the problem is gonna have to give as far as the price goes for me to want it back at eight to one and now right all right i just don't do it go ahead i won't play an eight to one yeah that's just so hard isn't it it's crazy well it's easy not it's easy not to yeah yeah well here's the thing if you're playing in eight to one you can't play anybody else because then your return gets so low that it's it's just not correct so i um so if i left him off if he plays like he did last week well you know then i guess i lose uh hopefully you'll have a little bit of a bounce even the best players bounce and uh he was so amazing last week i've got to think that he'll cool off a little bit this week yeah um get your questions in on youtube uh michael accidentally posted an nfl question i'm sure we can get to that uh matthew fanduel uh matthew says fanduel offering patrick reed versus patrick the the battle of the and uh jordan thoughts on laying minus 175 on rom over noren and hoblin as top continental european so let's just jump right into the bets nick what do you think minus 175 on rom over norah and hovland this top continental european what do you think nick i he played very well last week he ended up where he ended up in the top five minus 175 i don't really want to lay on him i like if i'm gonna pet anybody in that group it's probably hoblin i think he uh he's been a very good consistent young player he's got a lot of potential upside he played well last week as well he faded a little bit on sunday um but i'm probably not going to back him i'm not going to say he's not going to win i just minus 175 i don't see a lot of value in taking him over two other guys at that price so if anybody i'd go with hovel there just because i think there's more value on his side but i think ron's going to be there i think he's uh going to play well this week and he's the guy that's probably going to be there right for the tour championship as well i agree minus 175 not great value uh dave uh john howard asked my hair harris english he had harris to win last week came so close seems like he's playing so well the last few maybe this is a guy to keep a close eye on plus 3 500 to win this week dave what do you like about harris english this week um no i i think he'll have a good tournament but i um it's really difficult when a guy plays and he didn't win you you shoot minus 20 and you don't win boy it is really tough and you get blown up you get blown out i mean this is my ten strokes uh look the way i do this uh and this is just my philosophy i prefer guys who are really good players off bad tournaments because they just don't generally string together bad tournaments so you look at guys who missed the cut last week the shambo missed the cut marakawa missed the [ __ ] jason day cantley uh fee now as well uh maybe not to win but final to be somewhere in the mix good players top 20 guys don't miss cuts two weeks in a row and they usually come roaring back that's part of the reason they're top 20 guys yeah yeah um and then uh another quick question from jonathan bryson won on this course in 2015. does that give him an edge on the field this is a no this is a tricky tricky question with the new bryson dave what do you think no it's first of all it's five years ago so you know clayton kershaw might have been the best left-hander i've ever seen five years ago and he's not anymore okay so things change um the course might not play the same he's not the same clearly i mean i'm not i'm not going i'm not saying anything against him i think he's going to be very much in the mix this week but uh no i don't that's ancient history i barely look back one year because form changes so much let alone five years i'm with you on that dave i think a lot of times people take course history me personally i i like momentum and recent form a lot more than i do course form i i know it's important but i i like your point that yeah it's really gonna look back a year or so but going back three or four years what does it tell you really well and here's the thing um if it's just one course appearance then it's not really course form uh if you've got a guy well i forget the tournament a few weeks ago uh simpson he didn't win but it was he finished like third or fourth uh it was two weeks ago and it was on a course where he is always i mean every year he plays there he's he's in contention that's course for him to pay attention to yeah but a one year if you look down the and it doesn't exist this week obviously because so i don't have anything to refer to but in most tournaments that are played in the same course you'll see completely varying results for guys where they finished top ten one year missed the cut the previous year finished 18th the year before that finished 60th the year before that that's just the way it is it's way more on present form than than uh than past form yeah um so uh nick uh we we've kind of gotten this little flow where we go to you to talk about the course this week much much different uh uh than in boston so we're up in chicago this week we've got a couple of hundred yard par five stones none of this uh none of these 525 yards are fives uh what can you tell us about the course that chicago is going to bring us this week all right well uh this olympia fields is that like we've talked about the 2015 uh amateur other than that it hosted the us open back in 2003 so the point being that this course if it's hosted the us open can play difficult and this week they're expecting the rough at four inches which is ridiculous normally you're talking about two and a half inches uh the other thing to note here that i'm looking at i think this week a lot is the fact it's a par 70 you only have two par fives which you mentioned are both over 600 so that alone yeah there's still scoring opportunities because you're most likely hitting a short wedge end of your third shot not a lot of guys are going to get the home into and most probably are going to play for the position of that third shot as opposed to trying to you know squeak 200 to 300 yard shots out of the hole so what i think is important this week is is iron play and par four scoring there are certain guys that are ahead of the field in par four scoring this year and i think at least hey listen we all have different thoughts and ideas on how to attack of course any particular week as far as betting goes and that's what i'm looking at um one guy which kind of sucks for me that i i love coming into this one uh and he's the number one scorer on par fours this year is webb simpson but he was true today yeah now i'm like uh you know he was honestly gonna be my my number one bet as far as outright goes than anything else he's he's 63 under par communal score this this year on par fours which is bryson is the same number jt is at 43. and then you got a few guys in the 40s and the top after you get out of the top 10 you're talking about half of that you're under you're at 30 under bar or less i mean they're they're a big jump these top guys in part four scoring so that what's what's unique about those guys is it's their irons they play very very well uh in proximity to the green uh excuse me to the flag and then they hit a lot of green so i think that's going to be important this week more so the distance this is a long course for a par 70 but uh a lot of the yards is coming on those two par fives one of the par threes is 250 yards so the park are long but nothing out of the ordinary for the guys so i'm looking at parkour scoring this week and unfortunately the number one power force gorgeous with drew though bryson is the next guy that is in that category which i would have thought honestly was surprised i would have thought he was the guy that was you know thompson par-5s with his lengths but he's actually tied with webb for the number one scorer of our fours on tour this year uh yeah one other thing here by the way what's the nickname uh chicago has shot watch out for that i mean you know that that could be a factor this weekend it's i mean there was basically nothing happening there wasn't even a russell uh in boston last weekend there'll be some this weekend in chicago so that can affect uh some of the play and it often times it's more windy in the afternoon or windier in the afternoon than in the morning so tea times could also be of some interest here yeah uh a couple of questions here in the room gee wrens thanks for joining us man ball striking uh is important adam scott at 45 to 1. seems too good to be true no why uh gee let me take this real quick i'll throw it to dave uh real quick um we we me and my gambling friends call adam scott mr softy um i just don't trust that guy there's just nothing to suggest that he's at this level thank you dave yes thank you i mean you know where is it he's he's still a good player but and you might be i i'm not going to say you're not getting some value at 45 to 1 but what's the right price 35 so i mean if you just go if you're just going in in odds to relation uh to where they are to what they are or where they should be to what they are yeah i can i can make a case for adam scott but i mean he just he's only played what two tournaments since since they want things back up he doesn't have a top 20. um he's gonna have to show some dramatic improvement to be a serious contender in this event and his first his first event back he bombed a lot of putts like that score was a little bit deceiving about how good his driving yeah he still only finished 22nd exactly yeah with that uh g wrens uh brings up morikawa nick uh 25 to one more cowboys coming off that's a that's a very good price by the way 25 is 20 that's that's the best price i've seen on him the issue with morocco on that price is he was 26 to one last night i made a lot of notes i was like dang he's 17-1 right now with draftkings he dropped big time yeah um and while look uh we'll just throw this in uh he's a perfect 100 off a missed cut yeah he's missed he's missed one and he won the next event so yeah one one thing i looked up on morocco i'm going back to my you know i'm looking at par four scoring right and again i could be dead wrong this week but morocco we always talk about on iron play and i was like oh he's probably going to be up there he's he's only number 48 on tour and par 4 scoring he's 10 under par in all his rounds this year compared to like i said those other guys at 60 under bar was surprising he's he's been eating up par fives he's actually doing most of his damage so i don't know if that hurts him this week and again now the price has dropped you know basically 10 10 to 1 on his number so a little bit of a a loss in the value on him i did like him though even with that with those stats at 26-1 at 17-1 i'm probably not going to be on him this week just because i don't think he's gonna he doesn't have the par fives to eat up and again i was surprised that he wasn't as low on the far forward scoring i thought that's where he'd be he'd be doing but you probably have a good week bounce back is a big thing dave you're 100 on the money with that uh and i do like him to play well i'm just probably not gonna have on my car yeah i i gotta say i i worry about uh hoblin morikawa and wolf on courses like this i think these guys are the part of the younger well they are the younger generation of golfers and they just go for all the par fives if there's a par five that's getable and two they're going for it even if it's out of the rough they think i'm gonna i'm gonna slam it up there and if i'm in the bunker or if i'm in the rough i'm gonna chip it up there and get it in there and i think this course is tougher for them i think they'll figure it out as their career goes on but i'm staying away from hobbling i'm staying away from uh wolf and i'm staying for morikawa for for those reasons um i think they really really love the courses that they can tear apart on the longer ones i think this one's gonna be a little bit different i think it sets up for the veterans so um all right uh paul casey 55 to 1 seems high from jonathan uh i think that's low okay paul casey's coming up a 49th and the 31st i know he had the amazing second place finish before that he had two miscuts in the 67th i want nothing to do with paul casey and yeah nick webb simpson one of my favorite bets was webb simpson over rory mcelroy this week lock it in and and then it got taken away all right let's turn our attention to uh the betting markets uh let's talk about some of the favorites uh we're gotta narrow we gotta narrow down field obviously dj for good reason is is the top billing dave you said eight to one is ridiculous you can't like that so we're looking at johnson rum justin thomas shambo for the life of me i cannot figure out where why rory is in the top five uh well to be funny he he's got he doesn't even have a top what a seven straight tournaments he doesn't even have to top ten yeah so so to me um 16 to one or thereabouts on a guy who's showing no current form it's just not a sharp bet yeah i i i can't believe that he's below like well web withdrew but i'll take xander berger uh morikaw even day off of the the horrible miscon would you take sheffler over rory mcilroy right now nick i think i would yeah i wouldn't this week i i would say maybe not this week but on a typical basis i would say yeah he's probably getting good value i think he's plus money and he's been playing very well lately and rory hasn't so if you just go off of that he's worth you know a few bucks on feeding rory he's probably not i don't think he's paired up against rory is he i actually didn't look at that ahead yet no i i don't know i i say this shufflers obviously playing really good golf yeah back back to back top fives but now the expectations are there in the in the price true because you know he's in that 35 to one range this week which isn't terrible but i think now you know whether you may have been some value with scheffler i think now you're getting at best true odds on him yeah um i there's no value in these guys is there anything with 20 to one or less is there nick well the argument to be made on that normally we all agree that that's usually not but this week you're half the field right so the odds right now and actually the one thing i noticed is everybody in this range drops one like from 15 to 13 more power from 26 to 17 after a symphony withdrew because that's just one big name more that's out of the mix so who just withdrew oh yeah yeah they all dropped by a couple points um in these top range and again i think it has to be there because you only talk about 70 guys next week is going to be really difficult because you're going to be you know the favorites are going to be five to one so it's you know but but you're more likely to win it of course too so i i think you can't rule them out this week because they have to be there and you know if anybody if i'm looking at anybody simpson was my guy uh so my other guys i liked in this range were burger i mean how can you not like what he's been doing love my burger nick i know you've been on them for so long you know what we're still cashing tickets with them he's top five top ten every freaking week it's amazing every week the one guy i have not been on at all recently and because he's been overpriced and uh i'm not saying he's not overpriced this week is bryson i just think he might have a week this week and i'm really just using that par four scoring metric that i was looking at before he's right there number one on tour so i'm hoping maybe he he's the other guy in the top field that's going to do well this week nice uh dave we wow uh jiren says xander is a chump bet on xander shockley i kind of like zander this week so dave i want to uh throw three guys at you because we have questions in the youtube chat room guys get your questions in uh also real quick it is two dollar tuesday on wager talk uh marco's got an nba pick marco's hitting 71 on nba which is pretty much insane and he's got a bet that was normally 25 bucks and now it's two dollar tuesday which is the single greatest promotion in the gambling industry two dollar tuesday so um uh go to wages talk and get your two dollar tuesday pick uh i already have bought it i already know what the pick is but i'm not going to spoil it it's great um got a couple nba games today uh but dave um xander shockley was brought up and then kisner and final was brought up i will point out that kevin kisner who i normally love betting against has finished 25th 19th third and fourth last week is this is is this the side of a golfer that's coming into really good form or is this a guy that is getting ready to fall apart what do you think about kids well i don't know about fall apart but kisner has never been one to maintain that good of form for extended periods which is why he's not a top 10 player yeah um so i i can see maybe a little bit of decline from him this week final i would expect to have a good tournament i don't think he's going to win for you know there's no reason to just continue to rip the guy first for his sunday play but i don't i don't think he'll win uh but i think he'll be a top 20 guy this week sharply is just always in the mix uh he's just not winning right now he's not he's had one really two really good runs at winning uh since the restart and didn't get there neither one probably not in his best form right now but you know he's never a terrible bet to finish top ten yeah yeah yeah that's that's a really good point um man uh female and jason day missing the cut like not even seeing saturday and sunday when dj goes out there and shoots 30 under yeah i don't mind that for jason day i don't mind that at all he had four straight top tens and just didn't he didn't hit the ball uh uh last weekend so we got two days off and that might you know for a guy you know when we talk about jason day's uh maladies if you will physically uh yeah i kind of like the idea that he got two extra days off i i think he'll play well this week well i was following jason dave's shot tracker uh pretty hardcore because i had a bet on him and he was minus two so he's one shot below and then he missed a two foot putt and then he missed a 16 inch putt which put him to minus one and then he had to swing for the fences in the par five and he had a quadruple voki so uh yeah he i'm not saying he was going to compete for a top 10 or anything but the guy that's a two foot putt and a 16 inch putt that's pretty out of his element now female we would expect putting issues like that um it is i've just gotten word that it is state law that we have to talk about tiger woods because entire is playing so um i will say it was interesting saturday and sunday tiger was paired up against rory and you could have taken tiger plus money i believe both days in those rounds match up and rory was awful and tiger was pretty good which i did not expect on the weekends nick is there anything we can take away from tiger woods's really good weekend performance that got him into 58th place nick all i can say about that is that you know i really enjoyed the pictures of him and rory having a post brown burger together so it appears that they're good friends you know after after the tournament which i don't think we would have ever seen tiger back in his heyday having lunch yeah i don't know what that means but i didn't note that in my head uh listen tiger has been the same guy the last also all these tournaments since the restart and obviously for quite a while he plays well enough to make a cut and he plays early on the weekends uh this week no cut all four rounds maybe it's a little different um i honestly don't think we're gonna see him to defend his tour championship next year i think he's gonna or next week i think he's uh he does better in these limited fields uh but i just what is he what'd you say is that 56 57 somewhere in the neighborhood for the cup he's got to play his win big time here i don't know if he's going to get there i just don't think he's going to be a guy that's going to get to with the field as good as it is as good as everybody calling it now i don't think he's going to get a defendant title next week i think tiger will i think tiger will be a top 20 guy this week okay wow really well it's top 20. okay you know it's like you know i don't think anybody's going to go jeez he finished 17th wow [Laughter] but i think but i think he could come into that range okay so you want you know what are you gonna get you're gonna get like good probably won't get him in either i would think i think he's gonna be top five to make it to the yeah but i think i think he'll make a run at it i just don't know that he's that he can get there but a top 20 bet on tiger would be what about uh five to one somewhere in that range let me tell you no no no no top ten what would top ten be uh let's see 35 about seven to one top five yep 350 on the top ten yeah um i might take a shot with that interesting wow wow some some tiger love i i i don't want to say tiger i like the idea here's why i like the idea of his playing a second straight week yeah i think for him that's a good thing yeah um maybe he gets a little more of the muscle memory kicks in because you know you're playing once every three or four weeks man i mean that's just tough even for the best player ever uh but coming off you know it wasn't it wasn't a disaster last week he made the cut no sunday was really good yeah he played well at sunday i think i think he's going to play well this week okay uh g ryan's andy who's your mid-range favorite bet i leave the outright winners to uh dave and nick they're a lot better at that than i am i stick to the head-to-head matchups i gotta say uh mid-range it's harris english yeah at 35-1 i'll go i'll go deeper if you're looking for because i don't know is that sonic is that really mid-range i'll go to horshel i think marshall had a he had to bounce last week that was a tough loss tough loss the week before and i expect him to play poorly last week and he did but russell's been in good form and and i think he can get right back to that good form um so i think hershel is somehow some someone who's got a good chance to be on the leaderboard someplace this week and you'll get some decent plus money on a top 10 there yeah yeah um nick let's just keep going with mid-range guys let's talk about guys that are let's call it 70-1 or less we're looking at bums i mean guys like gary woodland the last three weeks uh you got your russell henley a couple of top ten finishes in a row yeah see that's the intent henley goes back into that group like i was talking about with the kisner yeah good players but asking them to go top ten three weeks in a row they just don't like well they just don't do that that's they're not top ten guys and that's a reach for a guy who's for a guy who's not a top 10 guy to get three top tens in a row in fact not even a top 20 guy to get three top tens in a row i i think that's asking a lot yeah okay nick and anybody else in that in that price range you're looking at maybe even if it's just head-to-head match-ups first rounds anything like that guys you're focusing on a little bit so uh speaking of pricing here i've noticed from from when i wrote up my notes for the show last night and some of you guys like harris english you mentioned already i i said last night he was 45-1 at draftkings he's 35 to one now wolf was 50 to one he's 45 and one i mean it's not big swings but it's enough to go huh kind of you know that stinks the one guy that i think uh just just by the pure numbers of them that we really haven't been talking about a lot but he's he's in the goods you know statistical categories for a lot of things is uh neiman uh he's 175 to one i mean it's way down there he's nine to one for a top 10 22 to one for a top five i mean 22-1 for top five is pretty good now the reason i like him i don't understand the price on the first ball his numbers are he's number 23 on tour shots game t to green and number nine in approach so you're talking about a guy up there in the rankings uh but he just hasn't he's not getting any love in the market i don't think he's playing particularly hardly yeah i'll disagree with that so i i don't know i i disagree with you on neiman i mean not he's up he's he's capable of playing great golf but his form stinks yeah i mean he's hey well it does miss cut 42nd miss cut 50 second miscut 31st 63rd he hasn't been i mean he's been getting done early he's rested he's guaranteed four ounces and anything can happen when you're in that midwest sure yeah yeah you're at mid-range you're not really playing for much on saturday sunday that's where you can get these guys that come up and get that top 20 or get that top 10 out of nowhere so yeah oh yeah for sure that's jim herman syndrome i still like to see at least something so you know you look at a cameron smith now he's got nothing that stands out i mean it's not like he's been sensational but he's been pretty steady and he did play reasonably well in boston so he got that so i i i give him a chance to to have a decent tournament um and the other cameron cameron champ who he's inconsistent as hell but you know he missed the cut last week i wouldn't be surprised if he comes up with a good effort here and he might be a guy who can you know can shorten this course a little bit with his length so if he's hitting if he's hitting irons well he could make some noise i'm with you on cameron champ uh dave for sure i i i think this is one of those courses where he's either going to be miscut or top yeah well obviously not miss cut but uh you know he's going to be like really really horrible or he's going to be good because his length is i've i've watched him play in person several times and i he he swings like it is so aggressive it's almost like bryson before bryson started swinging like he did and i've i've said he swings so hard he just doesn't know where the ball is going to land and if it lands in the fairway he's he's going to be really good it was just an off-week form i would totally go back on especially he's 7 500 in draftkings for you uh daily uh draftkings players i think 7 500 for a guy like champ has incredible upside i love that guy uh in daily fantasy just because of the points he gets for his uh his driving yards um for you for this one um i don't like camp this week he's 100 he's second on 200 driving distance 165th in accuracy 63rd in greens and regulation and the problem with that 173rd and up and downs so if you're not hitting greens and he can't get up and down and you got four inch rough and he's not hitting fairways i mean yes he could get hot he could hit the fairways if you sit in the fairways he's gonna have an advantage because he's hitting you know two clubs shorter than the next guy but i don't know i i i'm too nervous of him not hitting being in play i think the fairways are going to be important this week and you know anybody that's that's spraining a little bit off the t we've seen it in some of these tournaments where they're you know they're not they're not advancing it to the green they're chopping it up there maybe 20 30 50 yards short and then they have to do that that around the green short game 173rd i don't see a lot of up and downs if he's not in those greens so that's for me i told you nick he doesn't know where the ball's gonna land it's gone but i'm gonna avoid it yeah um uh dave any other uh sleepers it's tough when you got like 75 you know it's it's actually less than that what is that 69 guy field yeah yeah you know how deep are you going to go whoever's ranked 71st i so the worst guy in the field would probably be i guess carlos ortiz is probably uh the long he's the longest shot no jim herman jim herman the guy that totally screwed you guys a couple weeks ago yeah yeah well you know i'm sure he's a nice guy but i hate him um you know i mean those guys hog if one of those guys comes up and you know henry if higgs goes wild uh he had a good tournament boston actually maybe if he carries it up but i'm not i'm never on those guys never there's a reason they're they're i i almost never play triple digits and triple digits almost never win and if they do you didn't have them anyway nobody had herman right nobody i don't know anybody who had a ticket on herman um so you know they're they're in the field but they're the guys who are probably gonna be playing at eight o'clock on sunday morning yeah um i have one guy i'll throw out there that i'm avoiding uh okay and that's woodland he's not playing well yeah he he's not playing well and i go back to my my par four scoring i i don't know why i just feel like that's going to be important this week and he's number six on tour in part five expected right he bombed the ball uh but he's got one of the biggest disparities he falls all the way to 67th on tour and part four scoring he's only minus two cumulative for the season so he's uh he's a guy he doesn't do well in part four so i i say that of course he's one of us open which i think this well i know but here's the thing everybody talked about you know the new body of bryson deshamble and you know with good reason right that's exactly right he went the other way he dropped like 25 30 pounds um might want to put the weight back on you know get the freddie steak burgers buddy because uh you're not playing as well the thinner gary woodland is not playing as well as the uh slightly chunkier gary woodland maybe he had doctor's orders or something maybe it's a health issue no he talked about it he said he he thought that uh he wanted to get in better shape he probably is in better shape but it's not helping his golf game true you know i i've always wondered why if you're doing really well why change something what do you want to mess with it for i agree i agree uh jonathan wants to know um taylor well we have to say it uh correctly here so taylor good uh nick what do you think about the gooch taylor gooch i don't think he's improving three straight tournaments miss kevin 18. he's gotten better i don't know i don't care i don't i don't think much about him i'm not looking at him other than that i mean honestly that's all i can really say i haven't looked at him in any weeks recently i'm not looking at him again this week i don't have any notes or data on him just because i haven't looked at him so that's all i can really say on it um matthew asked a really good question dave i'm going to throw this to you this is a fundamental betting question when doing outrights are you taking a percent and splitting it amongst multiple guys or firing a full bullet on each guys no no no i split it up okay so dave talk me through your your bets um this is important a lot of people don't know how uh how you guys do your outrage uh uh winner certified for my myself i take one unit one my own one unit each week and i'll split it among as many players as i want to play the most i think the most i've ever played is five that's normally two or three this week it's two and by the way i didn't put a package up at wager talk if you uh i'm just not gonna bother um if you're on my all access you'll get those two plays they're both two percent place so nothing big but no that's uh for me it's one betting unit split among however many guys i'm playing yeah i don't go crazy with this stuff nick how do you how do you do your betting units because i i feel like the three of us do it all a little bit differently so nick how do you split up your your percentage for the weeks yeah i'll do this i'll do it similarly to dave i'll uh i usually do four or five guys um and i aim i mean most of the time i'm not under we talk about the 20 to one price up most of the time i might have one single guy that's under 21 but most of them have fallen in that 30 40 50 range uh that's where you know all it takes dave mentioned it you know on morocco when we both won back at the workday you know he was 35 something like that to one at that point you win one of those yeah yeah you lost four of them but you netted 30 to one on his ticket now you're covered for even if you bet five times you're covered for the next six weeks without without a worry so you don't hit them often you can't bet a lot you're gonna quickly go through your bankroll if you're about a big percentage of it all these things because you can go 10 weeks without a winner and it's easy yeah longer yeah it's going to happen so uh especially especially if you get you know i hate it's just the way it is i had i think three tournaments in a row where i had a piece of the lead or the lead in the final round and didn't get any of them yeah and that's you know that that that loss a couple weeks ago with kim really hurt i mean you know i'm looking 40 to one of these two strokes clear of everybody going in and that's one way you gotta i was i'm a six to five favorite and uh those are the ones you're supposed to win and then i had i had horseshoe that same week who overtook him and then through the entire day until freaking herman you guys got jimmy um me personally i do it different um i do weight less bets i will have maybe three or four head-to-head matchups and i'm aggressive with the amount of my bankroll that i bet per bet i it's not uncommon for me to throw five to seven percent of my head-to-head match-ups because i'm not betting as many bets i'll do this with my nascar vets as well as my golf any bets that i put out you can rest assured i have my own money on it so when you when you get dave's vets when you get nick's best i love the the difference in um in the types of bets that the three of us do i think it's really important and i love doing a show with guys that that that we all learn from each other and and we get different bets so um good stuff uh the boss was tough yes john yes you're right thank you awesome stuff my my heart hurt for you guys it was actually worse for nick because i basically i i knew i was dead after the sixth hole yeah i took the driver out hit the ball into you know the next county um and took the two-stroke penalty it's like see ya uh it it was worse if you had horses because it really looked like he was going to win the tournament until 16. so i had it all um okay uh i have a philosophical question i need to ask you guys but first i want to uh go over what you guys are working on right now nick uh man you're the soccer god you and carmine man do the best in the business uh talk about what you're doing with soccer right now yeah soccer i'm excited we got uh you know two weeks still to go but then the premier league la liga all the major european leagues start coming back so right now it's champions league just ended had a great run through uh the three weeks of that tournament um you crushed it not a great run you crushed it 20 22 and 7 for the for the run absolutely fantastic so that was fine of course uh right now it's mls i got two plays going tonight um and that you know from the last i do a little bit of liga mx which is mexico's league and that's really the the two soccer leagues that are going to get me through uh until until the european league's come back france did start so a little bit dabbling in that for a couple weeks but it's a little bit of a quieter time but it's only two weeks now is the time to kind of look ahead and start making the uh whatever adjustments i need and plans for who's going to be the teams next year to bet on early before the markets catch up to nice and uh dave you're knee-deep in baseball and hockey yes yeah uh i wish there was a way to play this so it would be my strongest soccer bet ever um uh on uh how long it would take me to fall asleep uh watching the game wait a minute wait a minute wait a minute i just i just i've tried and i just i give up okay there's always movement there there's 45 minutes straight of play yeah there might not be a lot of scoring but there is action non-stop for 45 straight minutes listen i i'd like the best the ultimate broadcast for soccer would be if the announcer actually said what was on his mind which was holy [ __ ] there was almost a shot on goal you know it's it's a beautiful game and then and billions of people watch it guess what else billions of people eat mcdonald's hamburgers and they start they suck okay um they're just not good there's so many better burgers out there but again if yeah that i'm only making fun of it because i like to make fun of stuff all right oh hell yeah oh listen oh wait a minute i do bet it oh okay all right i mean if i get if i get a good bet you know i don't know anything about ufc either but when i get uh yeah if the greek's on something or well kyle anthony's on something hell yeah i'm gonna bend it uh because it's probably gonna win my stuff uh this stuff i actually handicap is just it's more limited uh the main focus is the nhl in major league baseball right now and i guess it'll be college football in the nfl shortly um keeping the fingers toes and eyes crossed on that uh i i i have my doubts as to whether college football will complete a full season or not but we'll see and i do have 76 teams power rated so i'm ready to go no fcs though i i i'm not i don't do the fcs so the game this week no some people do i know major matt loves the fcs and he's good at it uh but i i don't uh i don't do that so i won't have anything on that that game that's coming up well you know dave just ripped soccer so um i'll go to another sport i'm sure dave doesn't like nascar no i love that i'm sure dave is real i do i i actually i i i'm not a nascar capper but i actually enjoy the sport because and you're bored of whatever you're is that they they take you into the car they take you into the pits and i like to see the behind-the-scenes stuff to me is really interesting and i i do enjoy nascar very much nascar is one of the i knock nascar all the time they're they're so goofy they're so hilarious this is this is one of the top three winners of the covid um their ratings are way up and i'm i'm not you can take this for what it's worth but we saw a lot of backlash uh from nascar fans i'm never gonna watch again and we saw a lot of backlash from baseball fans because there were some knees taken and the ratings for both those sports gone way way up way up yeah so i guess the boycott i'm boycotting uh that movement didn't take off very well you know but i just love that nascar embraced and said hey this is a sport we can do without fans we don't need the fans we're going to make the sport have i mean they're running back-to-back races which is great for the gambling world uh for for me and rocky and steve merrill for liking the fast lane um uh you guys mentioned ufc we had a killer show on saturday i mean killer we hit a six to one a two to one nice four and one on live bets on the show we do have a name for the show it's called take down live now and i will have a ufc picked up now johnny has finally convinced me to do ufc packages so we'll do that we will be live every saturday and every wednesday when there's a live usc event um and then yeah my golf my goal package is already up uh i i called it uh mistakes were made last week not this week uh because i over thought some of the best i want to get to a philosophical question this should be fun for everybody dave and and nick so here's what happens god bless you to leave barcelona oh god i know round one round one started on thursday and it was just it's one of those tournaments where it's obvious your bets aren't going well like the scores aren't going well your fantasy lineups aren't going well draftkings is not going well and somebody uh one of my golf friends he texted me and he said we're gonna lose this week guys and we all said why and he said because i doubled what i normally bet on golf this week because we've been on fire which is the kiss of death nick we lost do you believe in the kiss of death that he my friend one person upped his bets dramatically without telling us do you believe that is why we went two or three this week he's a butch no see that only works when he tells you he did if you didn't know like if he tells you ahead of time then you got somebody oh you mushed me you mushed us for this week so no i don't think so i think i think it was just you know it was bound to happen eventually we were running too too good for too long so that's that's the ebb and flows of the game right now there's no such thing no there isn't i i have fun i have fun with it but there's no such thing right okay um uh but the serious part of that is you don't double up your bets that's stupid money management it just is it's stupid money management and those guys those i'm sorry those guys those guys all they're losers they are they're losers guys who don't know how to manage you look you you have to take your bankroll and treat it like a business if you're not doing it like a business you are going to be a loser if you are treating it like a business and playing percentage of bankroll and staying with it you'll be in action for your entire life and you've got a much better chance of winning yeah yeah so so i i pondered this and then we ended up going two and three and every bet was done by friday by the way and so i did come to the conclusion i hope this helps people watching so what happened like why do people increase their bankroll or or increase like why they're betting a certain amount i think it's because life if you're on a hot streak if you're on a hot day like oh ten and one this is easy i'm on fire and so now it's time to like really double up the best well guess what doesn't last long well here's the thing though here's the weird part most bettors actually don't take that approach the the the it's the most disastrous approach in betting it's why a lot of bettors go broke they they increase their bets when they're losing it's like well i'm due to win and they want to get it all back they want to get it all back uh i i can't tell you how many betters are you and believe me i was on the other side of the counter for a long time and betting habits haven't changed i had a lot of guys who if they were up on sunday afternoon uh they wouldn't bet on monday it's like well i'm taking the profits it's like that doesn't make any sense yeah if you like the game on monday you should be playing it if you don't like the game then don't play it uh but the guys who lost on sunday they were the reason i bought expensive cars every two years because they come in they come and fire it on monday and they want to get it all back and yeah and that's chasing there is nothing worse than chasing those those are the guys it's just like a stock market right as your bankroll grows or your stock investment grows every time two percent of your yeah listen that two percent was worth more than the year prior so if you start off you start off with a one thousand dollar bankroll yep and you have a good year and you double it your three percent bet which was 30 bucks is now 60 bucks correct that's how you build a bankroll okay it doesn't it's and you can't do it in one fell swoop it's it's just something you have to accept there's going to be a grind you just stay disciplined and you'll be all right if you only bet a percentage you're bankrolled you could never go broke yes you're right that's right um all right guys we are up against the clock all right uh that is nick gorman follow him on wager talk yeah uh incredible soccer stuff incredible stuff uh that's dave kocon the one the only legend uh nhl baseball i mean pretty much everything my my uh golf package is already up oh well i'm gonna have to replace the web simpson from corey macaroni bet but my golf package is already up uh nick when is your golf package up you guys okay it'll be tonight and dave uh i'm not posting a package it's only for my all access guys so if you're if you have a subscription you'll get the two two outrights i made this week and they're just two percent place so we'll have some fun with it and otherwise but i'm not putting up a separate package uh because i don't love anybody this week and also um i i just i don't want to charge for something that i'm not all that wild about myself so well there's a reason why he's the best in the business uh so um guys if you like tea time the show please hit uh please hit that like button just just give us a few likes takes a couple seconds on your part uh thank you everyone for joining us uh we're up against the clock nick thank you dave thank you um good luck everyone we hope everyone makes a lot of money we're looking for a really good rebound week on tee time and uh we'll see everyone next week uh we're wrapping up the pga season getting ready for the next one to start got a couple majors coming up and we'll see you next week on tea time good luck everyone