Round 3 Preview - 2023 BMW Championship : DFS Showdown, Underdog and Prize Picks Plays w/ Gsluke DFS

foreign foreign [Music] golf fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our round three live stream for the BMW Championship gonna break down what you need to know both for DFS and for props tomorrow to go out there and get your research process started we'll have some fun as we go through it and make sure that all of your questions are answered too so if you've got anything that you're curious about it could be a player at any point maybe it's some strategy notes over there for DFS maybe it's a prop question well it came to the right place right just throw it down there in chat even if you don't have a question don't feel shy to go ahead and see high down in chat as well so welcome on in and uh let's get this thing rocking shall we so if we take a look at the golf course today it played pretty easy once again right in terms of your scoring average was actually even slightly easier than round one and a lot of that was because of the low winds unlike round one we didn't have those 30 35 mile an hour wind gusts and you really saw that with play pin locations though they weren't tough today I would say for maybe slightly more difficult than they were in round one especially on some of like the easier holes they weren't quite as scorable as what you had for round one so just to give you an idea like first off the first par five right played about point one two shots harder you take a look at the other par five what was it whole 16 right that also played slightly more difficult today but also a lot of the shorter par threes on the back nine you can see this stretch um 10 through 12 right um did play slightly under par today but yesterday I guess it wasn't that huge of difference but 13 right there was a huge difference between the two days so um go of course maybe set up a little bit differently but for rounds three and four as it gets slightly firmer and faster um and you know they kind of spruce it up when it comes to the pin locations as they typically do on weekends at tour events you're going to see a lot of volatility with the scoring average I think if we get good weather for Sunday you might see scoring tomorrow just kind of getting ahead of my myself um there are going to be some wins out there um so you know with windy conditions probably going to play over par Sunday if we get calm conditions might play under par again so it's really going to come down to those wind gusts and I guess just speaking of we'll hop into it right here for Saturday it looks windy from right about 8 A.M until dawn so whether you're an AM golfer going off early because you've been dog [ __ ] to this point uh whether you're one of those Elite tier players that's in contention uh you're pretty much gonna have like you saw I don't want to see just as bad as what you saw day one but much more similar conditions to day one than what you had today right you're gonna have a few holes that are playing into the wind you'll have Crosswinds to deal with on quite a few holes and yeah fortunately right you'll have a few holes that are downwind but even those are a little bit tricky in terms of controlling your distance so the scoring average of day one of about 0.28 shots under par I think is a decent measure of what to expect for Saturday day if not maybe slightly more difficult if the place is getting firmer and faster it's also worth noting right there's not going to be preferred lies so that's also going to make it slightly more difficult than what we had for Thursday and on top of that we're also going to have I mean pressure I mean I guess we'll just talk about that too so if we sort this on the right over here by FedEx Cup ranking we're starting to get a good idea right of where players are going to land and right now there's a handful of players that are within Striking Distance of getting into the FedEx Cup um that I guess we should just focus on right now right let's go through them because unlike some of the players that have like next to no chance of making it to East Lake that are way behind the eight ball at this point right they might just give up right I mean if they're starting off early tomorrow they're let's say uh 15 to 18 shots off the lead like a few players are um then they probably have no incentive to go out there and succeed right like shame is power for example has a zero percent chance of making it to East Lake so not many people are obviously going to play him tomorrow I probably would caution against it from motivation wise the only thing he's really playing for right would be his uh Pride I guess or his ego right going out there just uh having some fun out there and then obviously the paycheck that comes along with placement too so um the guys I'm more focused on are the guys that are here on this bubble so let's go down to 85 these guys that are like 95 or above right they just have to go out there and like not completely tank over the next few days um and they're gonna make it into East Lake but uh starting here with Brio right he's at 85 um you've got ham to 80 right here like they've got to at least go out there and uh keep it around even par right over the next two rounds obviously if they can go out there and shoot a low one that's gonna do wonders for their chances of making it to the east lake so with these two players right I think that you're gonna get 100 motivation today and tomorrow from them but these guys that are like 50 like they're gonna really be feeling the nerves so like adjusting Rose except straka right you know they're going to be motivated but maybe a little bit more nervy than these top two players and then the Sam burns the golliff it's Patrick right they've got to move up the leaderboard to go out there and get into East Lake they're going to be extremely aggressive so even the guys are going to be a little bit nervous here in the middle tier I like a lot more than their peers especially compared to guys down here that have like a one or like a point four point three percent chance of going out there and making it to East Lake so um these kind of guys they're like I said playing for their pride a little bit of a paycheck this week so don't completely undersell them but if you're comparing somebody at a similar ownership number I'm down here with like a point five percent chance of making East Lake to somebody up here that has like a 50 chance of making East Lake and is a similar ownership number I'm gonna take the guy that's in contention all day so it's just a psychology thing we've seen it play out before last week a lot of guys like a cam Davis really sticks out right went out there and moved himself into East Lake um a few other guys like Adam Scott there uh who else Justin Thomas right on Saturday went out there and had a new clear around because he was on the precipice we saw it happen for the you know Saturday Showdown last week I think it would be a wise idea to go back to that same kind of narrative so uh like I said this 85 Mark feels like their guys are really having to work to go out there and get to East Lake anybody from let's say Grio down to let's go down to JT posted maybe cam young down here I think has some sort of incentive to go out there and have a nuclear round uh the guys like Cam Davis that are like one percent Adam Svenson um maybe the kind of care at this point but uh I think the guys that get the tangible Edge out there are probably going to be the ones that have a much higher percent chance of making it in terms of a weather Edge I don't see one for Saturday so if you're trying to play one wave or the other I mean you're trying to like lock in a weather Edge I don't see one right the edge today really actually flipped on us I thought the morning would play easier than the afternoon and it was the exact opposite so here for Saturday I think it might play the same way where the afternoon is slightly easier than the morning um the reason for that by the way was the temperatures right morning wave was a little bit cooler than the afternoon and with a long golf course with long rough when the temperatures die down it just makes it play all that much longer so you might see that same kind of effect that doesn't mean go out there and play all the chalky players which I guess is what we'll talk about right now we'll hop into chat here in a second but uh it's the perfect segue into the DFS strategy so without a weather Edge right A lot of people may question like oh what's the point of playing Saturday Showdown right well it's all Game Theory right even with conditions that are slightly favoring maybe the later starters that are also coincidentally obviously going to be higher owns that's how Showdown works for Saturday uh if you're new to the party here um so the guys that are higher owned in the better conditions obviously we want to play a few of those guys but you also need to take the Chasers that are going to go nuclear like we just said with a few guys that are further back they in a lot of cases still have a lot of incentive to go out there and have a really good day tomorrow especially if they're on that FedEx Cup list so what you need to do for tomorrow is you got to take some chalk right if the conditions are going to be good for the late guys they're playing well they're in contention they fit the golf course obviously like you'd be dumb not to play a few late starters right there's going to be plenty of them that go out there and do well there's also going to be quite a few late starters that go out there and completely flop right there's the nerves of being in contention uh you know it's hard to back up a good round all of that sort of fun stuff but what I want to take advantage of right are some of the early starters that don't have anything to lose right they're going to be lower owned we know that right the guys that are further back in the leaderboard are almost always going to be two sometimes three times lower owned than some of their chalkier counterparts at the top of the board so we're getting the game theory Edge there and then also players that are going to be more aggressive so though conditions might be better for the pmwave golfers I still think you're going to see at least two three maybe four or even five ceiling rounds from the guys going off out of contention I think the prime candidates for that would be the people on the precipice of the FedEx Cup or just players that are rookies maybe not as established tour Pros like in Eric Cole Patrick Rogers kittyama that even you know a week like this making 100 200k matters to them right if you're uh Hideki or you're I mean let me find you an example right of somebody that has a zero percent chance of making it to East Lake that probably won't give a [ __ ] like Adam had one I feel like he just does not care right uh Hideki obviously he withdrew right he had like a 0.2 chance of making East Lake guess how much he cared he just withdrew from the golf tournament right so um if that tells you that motivation can be a factor uh uh obviously I think that that does so who else uh Brendan Todd has next to no chance um I guess that's really it a lot of like younger players are at the bottom of the board I guess like Tom Hoagie right he's got next to no chance of making it to East Lake uh and I guess cam young you could throw into that argument you could say and then I'd probably cut it off at that point right a lot of the rest of the top tier guys are confidently into Eastlake at this point but if there is anybody that has that concern it's a very valid concern here for me this week so um you want to take some of those chalky players like I was mentioning we're going to go through quite a few options on the live stream that fit that description and then some of the Chasers like a genre right that are going to get maybe slightly worse conditions but are gonna be like three times lower owned than their counterparts so all right we'll uh talk about players here in a second let's go through live chat see what's going on what's going on mark thank you for the max homocall of course yeah hovland had a pretty decent day today too um Patrick can't lay I mixed into a few lineups played well it was an okay Showdown day it was slightly positive for Showdown so will definitely take it you DM me on insta do I still use it I don't Brett but I can check it I still have access to the account so I'll check it since you let me know Max had a day absolutely where I prop was I profitable had a bad date I did I definitely profited yeah uh we had plenty of ceiling performances I play in a large little gpp so I played 50 lineups yesterday um and I made about 1.5 x on chat on Showdown myself so I don't know what you do I have no idea on your exposure who you played right I only talk about like five six players in my player upon this live stream anyways so while you'll have to let me know man what's going on Evan you're new here by the way well hey first off welcome to the live stream uh cheers to you for stopping on by and hopefully we can teach you a thing or two about DFS so we're going to go through a few people I always profit that's not true I do not profit every slate and this guy I'm just gonna ban him I can tell he's a smart ass because of what he said yesterday uh what a name I got a say dude you're you've got quite the name there let's hop into this so like I said though hopefully you learned a thing or two about DFS we're going to go through some plays on here sometimes they work out like a Max Homer yesterday sometimes they don't right that guy just was a smart ass was like oh you always profit no I don't right first off Max home I did great yesterday but troll hadn't completely sucked right there were definitely guys in my player poll that didn't play well today so like I don't know the guy was just being a smart ass over there completely ignore him but we're gonna go through a few guys I like you don't have to play them obviously but more importantly pay attention to why I'm playing people right my thought process behind getting to a John ROM or maybe taking a more chalky called morikaba um it's the reasoning that's a lot more helpful to everyone out there than who I'm playing right you're still building lineups to try and beat me in large Hill gpps right so like bear that in mind that even if you completely copied my player pull right you'd only be doing as well as I am right you're trying to beat me in theory right in these large field contests so uh just just keep in mind that you don't have to tell everything that you see here you can definitely the guys I'm highlighting here I just have to say they're my favorite place for tomorrow but hey they're my favorite place they don't have to be your favorite place so first off John Rahm he's one of those Chasers that I'm mixing in so he's gonna come with low ownership right that's part of the incentive to playing guys in the slightly worse conditions and then John Rahm is a stud is more than capable of making up for that right going out there I'm having a decent day um just overcoming you know 10 to maybe 15 mile an hour winds and I think the only issue tomorrow right I think the weather the winds are going to be pretty flat is temperature wise right and John Rahm is an elite tier bomber an elite to your driver like he's I don't want to say he's immune to some of those early soft conditions but like if anyone's gonna overtake that and be able to handle it right it's John ROM so he's Hobie volatile he's either going to shoot well over par like he did today um or go out there potentially shoot five six under par um I'll just say at this golf tournament when he won in 2020 he was 10 shots off the lead after two rounds and then won the golf tournament in a playoff at minus four so I'm not saying that he's going to win the golf tournament he's what 12 shots back right he's even further back um that's completely unrealistic um it's also a completely different test right you're not going to have guys coming back in terms of score um like you had in 2020 but he's very capable of going out there and back during a top ten right you see that from John ROM a lot you see it from guys like Scotty shuffler um after lackluster starts all the time and don't be surprised if that just happens out there once again so I'll be telling John Rahm most of it is because of the ownership right we're getting a player that we can use as leverage in gpps to try and move up in terms of the standings right now everyone's going to have John ROM right so when he actually performs well for us and goes out there and hits um a somewhat near Optimal Performance it's not going to be everyone and their brother that has John wrong right it's not going to be like oh we took the girl that was 50 owned for tomorrow right and uh we're playing against 10 000 other people that's the issue with taking the mega chalk up top just to give you an idea Rory Scotty shuffler gonna get some ownership right Patrick can't lay gonna get quite a bit of ownership tomorrow it's all very predictable your highest owned player max Homa right um huge surprise right he's -10 and in the lead it's all very correlated to the leaderboard um and also just how popular certain players are so like Ricky Fowler minus five a lot of people are playing him people love playing Ricky um guys like Brian Harmon at minus seven are getting some steam and even Maddie fits it minus seven Chris Kirk like I said it's uh all very predictable and it's not like you have to fade all of that right like I said they have the slightly better conditions in my opinion but only take two maybe three of them in the lineup and then you've got to mix in a pivot like a John ROM and you don't have to Pivot up top right my favorite place to Pivot we're gonna skip around here a little bit so um bear with me here guys I would be down low right A lot of my Chasers so just to kind of like lump them in with John ROM here are in the 6K range right down low where there's guys like sepstraka who have a really good chance of trying to get into the playoffs right they've got to go out there um have a decent performance over the last two rounds if they can make it to East Lake stepshack was one of those guys right he'll be low owned because he's plus five and no one wants to play a guy who's plus five um Adam shank same thing now what is Adam shank's East Lake chance let's see he's uh actually at 100 chance so he's playing for um placement anyways right trying to get more Strokes over there at East Lake you want guys that are going to have some sort of attention span right Nick Taylor same thing he's into East Lake now let's see where's Nick Taylor at on the standings let me double check on his actual percentage chance so he's yeah he's 100 into East Lake but also playing for the standings out there so a lot of my guys down low right are low owned out of the golf tournament right people aren't willing to play them because of their standing yet they still have that incentive right to go out there and try and get at least some sort of FedEx cut points this week so um that should give you an idea of the kind of Chasers that I'm taking and uh down low right up top we have the John ROM Chaser right there's a few other guys uh that maybe started off a little bit shitty uh Terrell had I'll just say I'm going right back to the level until Rohan uh he had a let's say a lackluster performance today you know ended up plus two but I'm going right back he's like four or five percent owned at this point uh let me double check I'll give you the exact number for my ownership projections but like he he just has shitty rounds like that happens it's golf right like I don't hold grudges against players just because they screwed a few of my lineups from the day before I'm just not to do that right so let's see where's where's trollhan four point seven percent owned so yeah sub five percent ownership count me in on those sort of guys um in terms of chalk up talk we'll talk about a few of them here but like more Kaaba Fleetwood a few guys and I'm definitely playing that fit that description uh then uh I am playing one of Rory or Scotty if you want to see who it is check out the patreon right I've got to leave at least a few plays behind the paywall but yeah I am playing uh one of these two up top which uh shouldn't be a surprise they're the best players in the world they're playing well um they're both highly owned right so if you're going to play one or even both of them um you've got to take them in like 40 50 of your lineups so like playing both of them completely X's you out from like most of the other guys up here at the top which is why I think maybe just taking a stand on like a Rory or Scotty shuffler uh is probably the prudent move see what we've got you got yourself a margarita yeah I've got a little Crown and Coke here so cheers to you uh hoping to bounce back we've got you you're in the best place tiered bro uh this is a good spot to find some information you did well round one well there you go can you please check your patreon DMs when you get a chance I can dude uh wanting to get into the Discord you should be in there dude I recognize your name what happened uh Mark says Keegan I'm not a huge fan that's chasing right he had a decent round today uh his ownership's not out of whack I can just tell you that offhand but yeah I'm not a huge Keegan guy he had his uh decent luck round one and decent luck today I'd say too Mark uh kind of feels like you'd be chasing at that point but let's go through a few of the chalky guys I like so murakaba um Tommy Fleetwood here both of them have played well to this point but have not gotten anything out of their routes I've not gotten anything out of their golf tournaments moracaba is experimenting with a few different putting techniques um you've seen it out there if you've watched the coverage and it hasn't really worked um towards the end of his round today he started to get a few of those mid-range putts to drop so maybe he's starting to see progress with it but he's leaving the flag stick in that's one of the changes and then I see a change with this grip and I think the putter that is using too so it looks like he's made wholesale changes to what he's you know his process out there and if we are starting to see a little bit of progression there the rest of the game is on point right he's -3 which isn't Earth shattering over the first two rounds with like the world's worst putter in fact let me just give you the shots game metrics for him if we take a look at his shots gained over the first two rounds uh with the putter that is he's at 0.5 shots gained which is honestly a lot better than I thought I thought we were going to see something like minus one maybe even minus two shots gained putting but even if I mean the 0.5 gained I have no idea where he like Spike putted to actually get into the positives but imagine if he starts to get the more of those mid-range putts to drop his green regulation percentage right now he's uh at 64 that's excellent he's a top 12 in the field in greens and regulation rate he's uh been decent around the green which is kind of surprising for calling more cabba but either way he's kind of just been squeaking along right shot minus three day one right shot even par today and like is at minus three like it's still like I don't want to say In Contention but with an earshot of contention so 17 and a half percent ownership I think is fair um compared to a few other players around him uh he's slightly higher owned than a hobland I have them also slightly lower owned than somebody like Xander shaffley uh so it's not like he's chalk it's not like he's a pivot um over here at the top of the nine caves but still at least based on what I see like it's the eye test with called more Cabo for sure that makes me want to play them it looks like he's just oh so close to having a good round um Tommy Fleetwood same thing he's also at minus three despite like just not doing much like he's just been so average to this point you take a look at his shot scheme metrics uh he hasn't gained more than a stroke in any one category he's slightly losing Strokes on approach to this point he's number 14 in the field in greens and regulation he's number two in driving accuracy so clearly right he's like strategically plotting himself around the golf course just not getting anything out of it right maybe it's you know a bounce or two that he's not getting on the greens where he's not getting the ball close or maybe it's just the putts that aren't dropping too right he's not gained many strokes putting um kind of like boracaba only gains 0.6 Strokes putting um over the first two rounds so maybe he gets a few more here to drop I'm here for Saturday's rounds I just these kind of guys that are spinning their wheels their Elite tier players but they're not playing horribly are the kind of chalk that I want to take right they're going to get the better conditions that's also another little boost that they're getting in my projections because of where they are and why I like them even more Cameron young down here at 8 700 I'm considering him as a player towards like the Middle top end of the board his putting today was horrendous his approach play actually wasn't much better so if you take a look at the shots gained on round one he gained three Strokes putting today nowhere near to that right the problem today on why he shot even part is he lost two strokes on approach so um the ball striking wasn't there but once again he finds himself in the top 20 right the top half of the field if they had a cut of just the top half of players um after round two he would have made the cut right so like I know it's not a sexy scorecard right you're not looking at a player that is checking every single stat box but you're getting low ownership and explosive High birdie percentage player that just a few weeks ago nearly won a golf tournament right um out there rocket mortgage was killing it through the first three rounds gained over nine Strokes on approach that week so I know like the approach play wasn't great today but he's not all that far removed from going out there and absolutely killing it so eighty seven hundred dollars I like him there let's see let's see what's going on in Chad I need to get some uh Crown and Coke in me here any questions oh we're good actually sweet if there's anyone you want my take on let me know um but uh let's go through a few more of these highlighted plays so Tom Kim Tony Fino um these aren't guys that are in contention right so the cam young Fleetwood more cabba plays right we're all guys are going to be in the better conditions uh now we're talking about low owned Chasers so instead of being like 15 maybe 20 owned they've got Tom Kim at 4.3 percent if it got Tony finao at six point four percent right both of these guys um you're gonna be getting for leverage purposes so maybe you're starting with like two of these chalky plays uh there's even more chalky guys I'm taking right I'll remind you I'm taking one of these top two in quite a few of my lineups um down here again I if you want to see who it is right just check out the patreon but uh there's going to be chalk that I'm taking right so maybe I'm using John ROM to get some differentiation and I can take a chalkier player down here in the AK range but if I'm starting with you know one of those top two you you've got to take like a Tom Kim attorney fee now right you've got to get some differentiation hopefully get that Spike performance from a chaser and I think guys like Tom Kim Tony finau who aren't playing to get into East Lake but are more so playing for position points to go out there and get more starting Strokes um might be worth considering out there Cebu Kim same thing right playing for positioning we talked about some of these lower tier options before but up top it's more chalk for me right a few Chasers and then down low it's where I'm I'm really hammering the Chasers right so that's what I'm looking at in terms of lineup construction there's going to be a few like hybrid builds I do a lot of them are going to be spearheaded by John ROM right also Terrell Hadden right I mentioned him as a chaser that I'm taking towards the top of the board if I'm starting a lineup with one of those two as one of my first uh or second man in in the lineup right and then maybe I can take more chalk down here in the 8K range right and I guess just to give you an idea of like block that I'd consider is you know I guess Maddie fits right I'm not playing Maddie Fitz but if I was starting a lineup with John ROM like you could play Maddie Fitz if you wanted to like he's been excellent this week um if you wanted to go down here and play Chris Kirk like you could play him if he started a lineup with John rum uh Justin Rose right he's got a lot of incentive in terms of the FedEx Cup he's also going to be a little bit chalky uh who else that's probably it like if you want to take any of these mid-tier chalky options um then just start off with a John Romer Trailhead right your lineup is going to be a lot different up top in terms of ownership which means down low you might be able to splurge a little bit when it comes to ownership down there um outside of that let me go over to my ownership sheet and give you guys an idea of a few other like maybe surprisingly chalky players because every time I go through this slate there's always a few guys in my model that uh surprised me a little bit so I'll give you guys a few of those so just bear with me one second here yeah it's column e isn't it yeah there we go all right so in terms of surprising ownership Ricky Fowler going to be really chalky tomorrow so I've got it up on the other tab here if you're on patreon you can follow along but Rickie Fowler have got it 20 plus Xander shaffley I've got it nearly 20 so I don't know if that's surprising but I'll just at least throw that one out there um Corey Connors actually pretty popular and it's because a lot of the 8K range is lower owned uh let's see Adam Svenson a lot of it comes down to Price Tag he's also like the only 6K guy that's under par at least in that part of the pricing so he's like 15 owned so I thought I would throw that out and then I guess Denny too Denny's like 15 owned too so like it's not just the top end of the board but some of those value plays and I think this is where the ownership is really going to help you for for Showdown tomorrow is some of the guys that are just super cheap and that can help you spend up for an extra stud are way way more expensive than they should be so that's if you have my ownership projections you can run them in your model and whatnot that's going to be something to keep an eye on like if you think playing 15 of Jenny McCarthy tomorrow is going to get you leverage you're going to match the field on them right that's that's the point of the ownership projections that's why you need to know these sort of things when you're going out there and building your lineups um because No One's Gonna Play and I'll just give you the thought process okay this is what the algorithm goes through so No One's Gonna Play Sheamus power after his first two rounds like literally no one like guys plus eight right so um Hodges same thing let's just sort this by score I'll give you an idea like Taylor Moore straka all these guys at the bottom of the board right are just going to be like half the ownership of what they were for main slate contests the result of that is not only are these top-end guys going to be even more chalky is the guys at the bottom that aren't playing like complete [ __ ] so let me sort this by salary so I did this wrong like a Svenson look at this he's like him in English are like the only guys under par in this entire range everyone's gonna play them down there right when uh they're out at the bars tonight if they're out at dinner with their family I'm just not really paying attention to stats right not bringing up shots games they're not doing projections right building their lineups they're gonna see oh Harris English is playing really well oh and I heard that there's a a weather Edge for the PM guys and they're just gonna play Harris English they're going to play Jenny McCarthy because um he's playing well over the first two rounds right so if you're going to take somebody like an English or McCarthy tomorrow to get proper leverage you're gonna have to play them in like 30 of lineups like not 15 like you typically would be able to for a showdown kind of slate so it's it's a little different right the you know obviously after the cut for most events right it cuts down and it gets a little bit um the ownership condenses but especially in this kind of field where we have 49 players he did he paid off quite well today that was for sure thoughts on Wyndham tomorrow let me double check on his stats for you and I'll probably give us the best idea so we'll go to data golf we'll bring up these live tournament stats and I yeah I'm going to look at specifically round two he had one really bad hole where he made a double bogey so it was off the T numbers or definitely skewed a little bit so we're gonna have to keep that in mind it's okay he's here at minus three um today he slightly lost off the tee um so he actually gained off the T except for that one hole like I said he hit about OB so that was over shots gained loss I'm in that one shot and he slightly lost on approach so he was hitting Green's regulation I can tell you that because I bet his greens crop and he went over for me today so he was hitting greens but wasn't hitting it close right that's what we can tell from that one shots gained lost I don't think he's the worst play in human history but you know it kind of worries me right that it Not only was the off the tee on that one hole but he also lost Strokes on approach um overall for the rounds so I still think it's okay like I wouldn't let that talk you off him just on that alone but I didn't like him that much otherwise like he wasn't like screaming to me as like one of my top end plays in terms of line of construction if you're putting together a large-scale gpp lineup like I said how you start your lineup is going to dictate um really how you build the rest of it so maybe you want to start at the bottom of the board right A lot of times you know we'll start up here we'll click one of those guys you know up there in the 10K range maybe we want to start down here in like the 8ks because I feel like this is where your slate is made where you can definitely find some pivots I think that might win you all the money tomorrow so I'm gonna throw Tony Fino in there he's my favorite Showdown playing like history I'm gonna throw troll hand into this lineup so right now right just starting off our lineup I've started with two Mega pivots right two guys are gonna be like sub five percent owned up here in the eight and nine K range which means I could take all the chalk I want right so let's say I'm playing Scottish shuffler tomorrow right let's assume that he's the you know either him or Rory right I'm playing Scotty let's assume that to be the case I'm not telling you that's the case by the way um let's just say that we can start this way now right you have two pivots so we can take a a chalky Scotty shuffler and in fact we can take another chalky piece if we want to we don't even have to just stop there if you want to take a Matt Fitzpatrick who I think is more than fairly priced at eight grand now we can do so right and even in terms of salary right we can make this work you go down here we throw like a Nick Taylor in uh he's got a lot to play for um considering his FedEx Cup position and then he rounded off with your favorite guy at 96 uh 6900 bucks right or cheaper um there for the rest of your lineup this sort of line up here has some Chalk in it right you've got two super chalky players um Nick Taylor's probably a pivot if you wanted to take chalky ass Danny McCarthy that's fine right because you've got two pivots in the mid-tier range and then even Nick Taylor right he's not going to be like 20 owned so you can make that kind of lineup work so even just spending all of your salary right if you get questions all the time about leaving salary on the table well if you have pivots like female and hen you don't need to do that right that'd be Overkill uh that would just be I think taking it a little bit too far just make sure that you have some Chalk in your lineup that's okay right in some pivots just you gotta have a mix of both of them out there and then that's that's the way to build a proper DFS lineup if you're in a single entry maybe you make it a little bit heavier in terms of chalk right so maybe it's only like one two pivots in a single entry kind of lineup as opposed to like two or three pivots over there for a gpp lineup but very similar kind of idea if I was playing in cash I would play all late guys so unlike my GBP lineups like this is where I would play that weather Edge right so um Chris Kirk at seventy one hundred dollars is probably going to be the highest owned cash play um that's typically how it works um who else Paris English is probably going to be like your second highest Jones player um for cash contest so we can throw them in there let's throw Rory let's take let's take Houma and Maddie Fitz so again I can't give you a whole lineup right DraftKings gets pissed off if you do so but if I was playing in cash I would be taking the late starters um not only because they're going to be higher range which is good for cash I know that sounds wild right after telling you that you know you want to be differentiating yourself for your gpp lineups but in cash when you're only trying to be half the field ownership is just fine in fact it's actually a good thing when you're playing in a cash contest so I would stick to those players um in most cash slates but especially when they have the better conditions right um that's kind of just like the icing on the cake there so that's probably what I'd be looking at for a cash kind of build outside of that uh that's it for DFS so if we don't have any questions we'll be hopping into some props right now let's see what we've got you still sticking with your 14 or 15 under winning score yeah I think that's pretty accurate should be interesting to see where they finish I think that's pretty accurate yeah I heard a few other people mentioning like 10 to 12 under par um as their winner even after today so we'll have to see yeah I think that it's gonna get tough on Sunday right I think the winds tomorrow are going to make it a little bit harder right than you saw today right maybe it plays close to even par so I don't see like Houma get into like 16 17 under right like maybe he shoots a few under and gets to like 1200 tomorrow um I don't see anyone going from like way behind the pack to like minus two or better right like I don't see it happening like that um and then Sunday who knows what the conditions look like right if it's windy again maybe -10 wins it right maybe they go backwards it's so dependent on the weather conditions that uh yeah I'll stick with my uh my 14 or 15 under it's probably best not to change it right uh Justin says you find it hard to predict ownership for around two and three um no it's I have a lot of back testing done Justin so I go through I track it almost every single week even rounds two and three are extremely correlated to the leaderboard so when you're looking at the top end guys they're almost always at least a little bit higher owns now on Sunday it's more pronounced right the top end of the board is like two three four five times higher owned than the rest of the guys right like it's it's on steroids but it's it's it's definitely doable especially if you back test it adjust your model right try and account for different things um one thing I've had I've had to start to account for which has made my life a lot harder actually is people playing the game theory Edge right you don't have as many uneducated people um going out there and playing Saturday Showdown and they start to take care of the guys right so rather than them being like two sometimes three percent owned now to see them at like five six percent so it's a moving Target there's a a lot of adjusting that goes on on my end when I'm trying to put together projections for ownership but it's definitely doable it's uh especially if you track it and you know see how you're doing right like if I'm sure if you're just doing it round to round you're going to get a few guys wrong but if you can figure out what went wrong this is the key right figure out you know what's going wrong in your model and then adjust for it right like I've had a lot of things I've had to adjust on my ownership model um like I mentioned the game theory side of things I've had to kind of tone down um some of my models and then weather Edge or you have to incorporate that into your projections like I know me talking about a weather Edge on here first late right might not have a huge impact but people aren't dome right they can do their own research right so if I see a weather Edge other people take that into account and factor that in so um there's it's it's a very difficult I'll just say that it's my ownership models both for main slate and for Showdown take up most of my time when it comes to my modeling projections in terms of actual Players golf courses that sort of fun stuff um it takes time don't get me wrong right but ownership stuff is because it's changing so much um I have to spend a ton of time on do we not even have a board up that's unfortunate all right we'll still talk about what I want to do with props but yeah we've got no board up I want to we'll double check on prize picks right you might be hiding on us here no it doesn't look like it all right maybe if we stall enough and just talk about props we can um finesse a board right get it to drop for us on here on live stream if not of course all my props will be posted on patreon you guys know the deal but I'm gonna give you guys something for the live stream right a little bit of a Green Goblins out there let's see what we've got so for props I do think it plays a little bit harder right I don't think it plays difficult though so there's a difference right just because I said it think it plays harder tomorrow doesn't mean I think it plays like two over par I think of realistic scoring average uh would be like even par I I would say would be a good median for tomorrow um and you can see it's going to be for the entire day like the morning guys aren't really getting better conditions than the afternoon um so don't think that just because I am taking morning guys on my DFS poll that I think conditions are going to be better right it's more so for the game theory side of things right I'm playing them because they're super low owned and they've still got to shoot a low score to go out there and make the playoffs um there's a huge difference between that right in them having better conditions so when we're looking at props right 50 50 type of scenarios you know I don't really differentiate between the early and the late guys um the late guys are in contention of this event right they're going to be pretty locked in we know that the morning guys um they're locked in for other reasons right just try to go out there and make it to next week so you know unlike a lot of Saturday or Sunday slates for props I don't know if motivation is going to be as big of a factor for me right because like everyone in the field kind of has that going and like I said for a 50 50 prop right completely different situation than DFS it's just it's not something that I think is actionable so um and even par scoring average I think is the important thing to note that I think that greens are going to be a little bit harder to hit I would imagine because they're going to be a little bit firmer and faster um same thing with Fairway so if you take a look at the averages from round three let's say round two uh you can probably extrapolate those out there for tomorrow in fact I guess we have the time here I can just do it right now it takes me like two seconds to do so I'll just do it why not right so this will give us a good idea of what we're going to do for tomorrow sorry I gotta add the right stats on here it'll take me a minute so if you have any random questions or any random comments throw them down there right now we'll just uh chat a little bit while I do this analysis but uh all I'm going to do is just average up the greens and accuracy over the first two rounds so this isn't going to differentiate between um rounds one and two unfortunately so I mean that's not great obviously but we'll we'll make do with what we can here see so the driving accuracy to this point was 0.58 percent so sorry not point five eight percent fifty eight percent obviously which with 14 Fairways is 8.12 so after day one the average was 8.26 so obviously since that went down after day one uh we had a little bit of regression there so that's good to know now let's check on greens see and the reason I know that by the way the average from day one is I did the same thing yesterday right okay so the green and regulation average today or should say after two days is 69 percent which is 69.8 actually which is 12.56 greens and regulation Which is higher than what it was for day one so believe it or not they hit more greens regulation today um than what they did for Thursday which is probably because of the wind right um the fairways went down the greens went up so that's worth noting the averages within 0.5 to 0.1 of what you had yesterday so there wasn't a huge difference that might have been because of weather in either direction so in terms of the boards you're probably going to get similar pricing right so on prize picks if they do post a golf board you're probably going to see you know guys that eight eight and a half Fairways again maybe nine for the elite tier players um in terms of greens regulation you'll probably see them from like 12 and a half up to 13 and a half maybe even 14 again so I'm just giving you an idea of what to expect there if for some reason right they post a board that's lower or like way higher than than what I'm calling for right there then you know which way to bet is essentially what I'm saying there um and the same thing for Fairways right I think it'll be from like eight up to nine Fairways if it's anything but eight up to nine Fairways you can figure out which way in a bit right I'm using that as a Baseline let's see are we do we really not have a board yet I feel like by this time almost every single slate we have a board but it looks like we don't all right we can probably find something else to do here for a minute um what other categories I guess birdies we should calculate the birdie average that's not a bad idea so let's do that I think I think I can do that here real quickly on data golf actually might even make my life a little bit easier let's see is that a thing it might not be all right we can still figure it out okay I'm just gonna add this up real quick get ourselves a little birdie average and uh I'll just share my screen so we can follow along together so I'm just I'm just silent for the next minute so 0.31 .45 0.51.58 0.78 so you can see me doing mental math on yours would be great 107 um 121 139 143 147 163. um 1.99 213 242 66. 295 303 3 336. okay that should be accurate hopefully um that so 3.36 birdies per round literally by the way that's one of the easier ways to calculate the birdie average so they go through and add it up so 3.36 birdies per round if my uh two crowning Cokes in mental math was correct which again might be off don't take me 100 right on that should be correct though that should give you some perspective out there too so on prize picks you might see a few guys at three and a half right that are like average tier players and then your Elite tier guys I probably expect to see them at four maybe Rory and Scotty at four and a half birdies again um heck they might even be at four birdies on prize picks so you know because the average is only 3.36 right so you know to put guys at four and a half an entire birdian you know 1.2 1.3 birdies higher than the average it's kind of asking a whole lot let's see has our bullshitting had a board posted yet has not all right guys we might not have a board for the live stream you know what we'll do I'll post a slip over there on Twitter for you guys so uh for anyone here on the live stream that's still here well make sure you follow me on Twitter okay I'll be posting a free slip on there tonight uh to give you guys a little bit of exposure out there for Saturday for the rest of my action make sure to check out the patreon right of course on there I always post all the slips that I'm entering um not only just for you know what we do here in the live stream but all of my exposure right like all sometimes 15 20 cards that I'm entering for any one day so best of luck out there let's catch up on any last second questions then hop on out of here freebie says best golf content on YouTube I appreciate that uh there's definitely a lot of good ones out there I don't know if I'd say I'm the best but hey I appreciate that boss give the guy a like and a subscribe and get those Algos bumping I appreciate you boss yeah we're at the end of the live stream it's at that point where I ask for a like right hit the like button if you feel like you learned a little bit about tomorrow's process let's go out there and have ourselves a day right hopefully see you guys at the top of the board Chris Kirk tomorrow I'm thinking he's an okay play he's gonna be a little chalky but you know like I said they're getting the better conditions right so you know the fact that he's playing bow I think is you know bodes Bell for him but just know if you're playing Chris kirkmark it's coming with a lot of ownership right like he's going to be one of the more popular players down there in that range so just know that right if you're taking Chris Kirk take a John Rahm or take like a trollhan for some ownership leverage there too they're scared to release the lines hey they've got to post them at some point so we're coming for it anyways Evan so uh yeah like I said guys check out the Twitter I'll be posting a slip on there but we'll get after it of course Curtis appreciate you let's get this cash couldn't have said it better myself all right guys that's all we've got for the Saturday stream I appreciate everyone and all the support here let's go out there make Saturday one to remember and go out there and get some green we will be doing a Sunday stream so make sure to check that out tomorrow evening uh there's some UFC he fights on so I will be sweating those in the background and I'll talk to some golf once again but until then guys like I said best of luck I'll catch you guys