Tour Championship Round 2 DFS Preview + Live chat: Draftkings Showdown, Underdog + Prize Picks Props

e e e e e [Music] [Music] welcome on go fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our round two DFS in prop live stream out out there for the Tour Championship going to break down what to expect from East Lake Golf Club as well as how we're going to attack things over there on the showdown in prop side of things with some of our exposure so hopefully you're having a are having I should say a fantastic Thursday evening and you're ready to talk about everything we've got out there for Friday so you got any questions let me know down in chat you just want to see high down there feel free to go ahead and do that as well we're going to do our normal stick over here on the channel got a little bit more time tonight don't have a dinner reservation as close to the live stream so we're going to be able to go through some of the pin locations talk about the course setup um do a full Deep dive over there in Underdog and priz picks as well as talk through The Showdown slate to go ahead and kick things off so you guys know the deal you've been here for a while it's going to be our typical live stream just hoping that you guys are having a fantastic Wednesday let's go ahead and started off with our look at our presenting sponsor of the live stream which of course are friends over there at the shipit nation shipit Nation are a great source for all your needs on DF us not just what we have over here on the golf side in fact over there with the shipet nation you have football starting in a few weeks hockey NBA MMA NASCAR a bunch of different sports that you probably haven't even heard of when it comes to DFS you can get projections player pool stuff over there all the advice that you're looking for for the different pieces of exposure that you're playing so if you're more of a well-rounded player not just a one trick pony that goes out there and plays golf lineups U maybe you're playing some of those other sports that are mentioned or showed on the screen right there U make sure to check out the shipit nation crew they're uh first off great if not the best resource out there one of the best and when it comes to pound for pounds like what you're getting for your money shipit nation has all the other big sites beat they're not going to price scou you they're not going to make you spend uh a million dollars a month to go out there and join their site and if you use code Luke 10 you'll also get a discount off any membership which helps support the channel and give you guys a little bit of a better price tag over there on that side so make sure get to check that out if you guys have already of course rate presenting sponsor a lot of you guys are probably already familiar but if not maybe you're new out here in the DFS scene if you're looking for that all-encompassing site um they're a great resource to have right if you're a onetick pony on golf um they do have a golf only tier over there as well so you know if you're using my content using other resources uh you want to add on something on top of that um or even if you're just starting out and looking to join a golf site out they've got some great stuff over there on that side I got the D gen 75 Stone Tambo hoop all great resources let's talk about this golf course which today played like we called for so I don't know if I was the only T to say this but I thought it was going to play relatively easy um maybe not two and a half Strokes under par easy right out there with nearly a 4.75 birdy average but I did think one and a half maybe two strokes under par was what I would expect out there for the field average so reasoning for that of course were some of the design changes that they've introduced you have the extra par five you also have whole eight with which is going to be scorable the entire week and it wasn't drivable today they didn't quite move up the T boox but they are going to do that in one of the next few rounds heck might even be two of the next three rounds that we get so we'll have to see what they choose to do there but there were some part Theses that were moved up in fact I think all four par 3es were a little bit shorter um than usual out there for today he also had some generous pin locations I would say nothing that was all that difficult outside of hole number one I mean I guess there were a few others like 13 wasn't the easiest pin location but the par fivs were all really getable even if you missed in the bunkers you had no problems getting up and down they're likely going to change that as the week goes on so this two and a half underpar average is probably as easy as the course is going to get in terms of how it played I mean I got to see the course of the pram got to see the content creator classic um helped a lot with trying to get a gauge on the golf course but it's going to get a little bit harder as the week goes on so you know they might move back some of those par 3es tomorrow they might decide to use some less generous pin locations out there on the par fivs whatever the case may be probably around 200 par maybe even a little bit harder than that out there for round two rounds three and four they're likely going to ramp up the difficulty even a little bit more so they still might move up hole number eight right that would make the golf course a little bit easier on that one particular hole but the four par 3 is all being moved up um they're really really simple pin locations out there is probably only going to be a round one thing so we'll have to see if round two they go out there roast the of course again maybe that's not going to be a factor but at least based on what I saw out there I thought it was a very um scorable setup I think they tried to make it as easy as possible out there for the players um and you saw the players take advantage of it let's see what's going on we got uh Bart down there Bo darling as well hopefully you guys are having a great time and he said bounce back for roran aberg so we're going to talk about um Oar for sure we'll be talk about the DFS plays but uh everyone is capable of bouncing back it's only been one round at this stage um so especially somebody like Rory or Oar more than capable of bouncing back but I really like Oar and we'll talk about why here in just a few minutes it's going up Bart Scotty said hold by beer he indeed did a seven shot lead I believe he's like minus 300 on books so yeah I think hold my beer was a good way to put that he said looking good Luke s's hat yeah no hat out there I've got a little bit of the the tanning issue going on I don't think I'm as taned towards the top of my head as the bottom but uh yeah I was out on the Sun all day the Hat was kind of just getting old of being on the head so uh we took it off we pulled a Rory I guess and went hatless for today it's going on karum pouring up a crown of coke on my behalf um I haven't had any yet this week but uh with dinner I'm going to um what was one of my favorite meals in my life the last time I went to this restaurant and I'm for sure getting a smoked old fashion so I had that that was fantastic it's a steakhouse called Marcel over here in Atlanta and uh it's not anything crazy it's not like you know Michelin star a restaurant or anything like that but uh I got a steak there last time and it was unbelievable like I literally said it was like maybe the best steak that I've ever had so we're going back there tonight it's a little bit of a later reservation it's all they had available um even just out there um for a small reservation but uh is what it is I browny Coke might be in the the cards as well we'll have to see so fade Scotty in single entry uh we'll talk about the DFS stuff here in a few minutes but uh um he's going to be real high owned that's for sure and uh sing entry might even be like 50% plus so you're definitely at least going to have to consider that out there in your process cap I'm not sure if I could do it myself but uh you'll have to make that determination yourself let's talk through the weather out there for tomorrow which is not going to be a huge Factor really any of the four rounds um when you only have 30 players only about I think it's like a three and a half four hour spread for the tea times um you're not going to have an opportunity for one side to really get an advantage now if the winds randomly kick up at let's say like 2: p.m or something like that right then maybe there could be a little bit of a microedge to go out there and take advantage of but in this kind of setup no cut field I mean even a 70 player field right it's hard to find that kind of Advantage a 50 player field BMW was the same kind of thing it's hard to find anything to squeeze out of that um I think this week if you're playing the weather you're probably overthinking it but if you are using it to break a tie let's say that there's somebody going off super early tomorrow as opposed to going off super late maybe you could shy towards the guy with um you can see around like 3: 4 p.m. there are some winds that are going to kick up um again this could be just noise out there in this HR model um if that ends up happening right maybe the morning guys get a little bit of better conditions but it's only for an hour right that the winds are going to be above six miles an hour and if that's going to be the case I mean that affects three maybe four holes out there for the players and the reason why this is coming through is that there's a chance of a thunderstorm out there tomorrow afternoon so obviously if a thunderstorm comes through the winds going to kick up a little bit just before and then during that storm but if if there's a thunderstorm if there's any sort of you know Thunder activity out there in the area they're not even going to be on the golf course so as I said I think the weather you know going out there trying to find Advantage would be a Fool's erand to go out there and do so and uh that's how I'm treating it out there for tomorrow I think it's much more of a game theory slate than anything much more about going out there trying to find some lower owned players um which could be tough on a 30 player slate I have to say right uh even 65 players after the cut can be a little bit tough sometimes but when you only have 30 it is even more so the case right tough to go out there and find some of those sub 10% or I guess in this case like sub 15 percenters they can go out there and play in lineups but there are a few that you can get to out there in your exposure so that's I think where all the quote unquote Edge is out there for round two Showdown because there's no weather to go out there and try and play um you know it's not round four Showdown we're not worried about the placement points um there are going to be some super high-end players so I'm going to try and point those out when we go through the spreadsheet on here but outside of some super mega chock I don't think that anyone is unplayable so we we'll talk about a few of the guys that are garnering a little bit more steam than maybe they should be but outside of that you're going to see a lot of like medium to low owned players that I'm using um just like I did for main slate I'm probably going to leave a little bit of salary on the table when I'm going out there and building lineups and uh I'm going to perhaps use lineup construction to go out there and be my friend as well um whether that is uh an extreme studs and Duds which I'll be doing quite often out there or being extremely balanced with some 8K players you know there might be a few funky ways I'm going out there to make sure I'm getting different but uh most of that is going to come down to um just avoiding some of the super chalky guys and I'm going to point out here in a second then on top of that maybe leaving a little bit of salary on the table let's talk about the ownership thing so right off the bat before you even touch on any questions or comments uh I want to talk about the Scotty shiffler ownership so he's going to be about 40 I think I had him at like 43 44% on projected ownership uh I've got a well over the 40% Mark though and uh I think in single entries um some maybe more casual contest we don't have as many sharps in it he might even be close to 50% ownership out there in contest so let me get a sip of water here and at that 50% Mark right show on it's just a no thank you as if you were going with the 2x Mark right that means you'd have to lock them pretty much lock them out there in lineups to get any sort of Leverage to them and uh he kind of Lux sacked it with the putter today um I mean I saw it Force firsthand front n especially is when I was following his group he did not look all that sharp out there with the ball striking it was I would the average at best which for Scotty is well below his standards um putter though bail him out for a few birdies um back nine um I watched him for the first four or five holes and it was a lot of the same right especially when he started to get on that little bit of a birdie run and then I watched the last few holes on my phone as it was in my Uber ride home and what I saw on that was what was it 17 he made like a 25f footer a last putt wasn't that straightforward but it was like a 10 maybe 12f footer he went out there and made those kind of putts don't always drop for Scotty shuffler so you know if you're going to play him assuming that he's going to go out there and just repeat that kind of performance um I I think he could shoot minus four tomorrow I think I think that's probably what Scotty shuffler is going to do which is is far from a problem starting there at minus 16 he'll probably still have the lead by like five shots if he goes out there and does that but reality is because the golf course is so scorable because there are so many birdies to be had on birdie average was nearly five per round today by the way uh we'll talk about that a little bit more later when we get to the prop side of things but with all those birdies being made if somebody down here does better than that which is very likely if that kind if that's going to be the kind of scoring that we get um then you're going to have to have them as opposed to Scotty shuffler in round two Showdown so you got to throw the placement points aside you've got to consider that ownership angle when going out there and building lineups uh I think owners ship in single entries could be a little bit wonky with Scotty uh I think he could be 50 60% owned out there in some single entries and I think in some of the more sharp contest believe it or not he might be closer to like 30 40% owned um as a lot of your sharper players right tend to go out there and play that ownership game a little bit more and if we're going to get him at like 30% out there in some of those like quote unquote sharper single entries then maybe he's a play at that sort of ownership mark because I've still got guys like Xander at 25% um even an oar who's quote unquote a low owned player on this kind of slate is still 18.4% owned so you know if Scotty is only going to be like 30% out there in a few contests I don't think that he's unplayable any means uh at that kind of Mark in fact he might actually be a pretty decent play but personally I think he's going to be closer to like like I said like 43 maybe 44% ownership so um he's the main guy I would say out there from the ownership side but uh there are a few others I guess that would catch my eye so and Adam Scott is probably a little bit chalkier than he should be assah theala because he's at minus 7 is also probably going to be a little bit more popular than you'd be hoping for uh a Keegan Bradley and Windam clerk are both garnering a little bit of steam themselves a Sam Burns they're at minus8 after the first round and we're all guys that I think are going to be well over that 20% ownership and in some cases even over 25% owned so and I'll just tell you that out of those four five he pointed out that I'm playing one of those still right out there in my lineups so it's not like it's the end of the world it's not like I think that you can't use a super chalky option it's just that if you're going to use a Scotty up top if you choose to take what I think will be about a 40 maybe 50% player out there at $112,000 you probably shouldn't be pairing them up with those 20% owned guys down low and uh it would be really easy to fall into the Trap of wanting to use like an Adam Scott in that kind of lineup because you're going to need the salary right after spending 12 Grand on a Scotti it'd be really easy to want to go down there and maybe a saw theala um after using a $112,000 player right he's only $6,900 what you do in those kind of lineups is as opposed to taking the 25% in guys down low is where it's where you take a pivot right it's where you know we're going to talk about sep as a potential pivot um even a 15% owned Tom hogi down here um is going to get you a little bit different to some of the other options that's where taking that approach maybe leaving a little bit of salary on the table can offset that crazy ownership number up there with your first option so uh like I said I'm not playing Scotty if I didn't say it before I'll just say it clear as day I'm not using him out there in my lineups I just don't think that he's gonna make as many putts out there could he for sure right we've seen him do it before we've seen him go out there and boat race a field so uh I don't want to act like it's impossible for him to go out there and do so but would I count on that absolutely not in fact right I'm obviously on the side that he's probably not going to go out there and have that kind of day which is why I'd prefer starting with like a l big go bear so we'll talk about him in a second I know somebody had a question about Oar and whether he was an option uh he's actually the first guy we're going to talk about so uh for sure right somebody I'm considering where were we at we had a what's going on Phil says yo Luke you me Allin on Dey once you saw the uh red question mark on his name yeah they did the same thing with McIntyre so I'm not sure if you guys saw that for the round two Showdown but they have a questionable tag on Robbie Mack which makes no sense because all all things I've heard he's good to go out there for this week so uh not a bad idea and uh he didn't play horribly today right minus one uh very respectable out there round one hopefully he can get things fired over this weekend what's going on Samuel he said you bet Scotty was saving his best for this tournament um I know that he's got the chip on his shoulder that's for damn sure uh he's uh he's had a lot of disappointing finishes here he's been in this same situation before actually out there at East Lake and then gone out there and crumbled he's even had a six shot lead on Sunday and then gone out there and um completely choked away that um it's hard to you know look past that right so he does have this big lead um he is like minus 300 books to go out there and win and it's world number one I definitely wouldn't bet against them but at the same time this golf course has had a knack for getting them off his game now it's renovated it's a little bit different this year so so maybe it's different this time around right that's uh if anyone has a Scotty ticket right that's reason to be excited about it it's it is a quote unquote different golf course this time but uh maybe it's just Atlanta that has his uh has his number just like uh Louisville Kentucky did right shall we be expecting most to be hitting five plus birdies that'll depend on pin locations so I guess we'll Circle back on that but uh not 100% sure what was hell's ball striking like today do I like him for a bounceback um I we'll take a look at it Michael I was not looking at it myself um ball striking stats if they're decent you can get to them for a little bit of a bounce back I'm getting a few texts right now so let me make sure that nothing's going on oh okay look looks like my cat sitter got into my house and they're sending me pictures of my cats so I was like spammed with like four or five texts when the same number I was like a [ __ ] what's going on uh good texts I guess from my cat sitter making sure that they're okay so yeah well I guess let me look at Billy stats for you man we can do that here real quickly so his ball striking I guess I'll just spill the beans was horrible out there for today he lost two off the tea a little bit over two off the tea little little bit over two out there with his approach it's not like he can't shake it off so that's the one thing I'll say about your round one stats is you can use them especially like if you see somebody that loses two three Strokes putting like uh that's probably not going to happen out there for the next day um but somebody like Billy I mean it'd be great if we saw him out there gaining with approach and Putter and you know sorry approach in off the te then he you know maybe lost like four strokes with a putter but even if it is real ugly ball striking stats it's only one round right you only played 18 holes so I don't know if you want to read into that too much right go out there and make all your decisions based on what you saw just for today because golf's a Fickle game right sometimes you wake up you just don't have your best stuff um unfortunately for a lot of players that's on Sunday when all the eyes are on them and sometimes it's round one you saw it for Windam Clark at the Olympics went out there nearly uh went out there and medled um Victor hin same thing round one even round two wasn't his best stuff rounds three and four had some of the best rounds of anyone on the golf course um somebody like Bill ho right who has a lot to play for right he's not one of those guys that's uh super mega Rich right out there in the PGA tour right his check this week right difference between 30th and let's say like a 15th out there for Billy hoe right means something at this kind of event so I would expect him to grind so even though the ball striking stats aren't that great I would say that he's still got a good chance to go out there and bounce back he's he's going to be one of the few guys that even like Saturday Sunday if he's out of it is probably going to go out there and give it his best stuff where there are certainly other guys out there in the field that uh I don't know if we can say that about right certainly guys I would say that would go out there maybe quit out there on a Saturday Sunday uh I don't think I have that same kind of issue or same kind of like worry out there with Billy horel let's talk about a few other players are actually I guess let start up top with the first highlighted play um and that's going to be a l b go bear and as usual guys right you don't have to use these players yourself if you agree with my reasoning you agree with the play go out there right use them in your exposure if you'd like to but what I like about Oar and what I think you should be looking for in some of your players tomorrow um is he just lost a bunch of Strokes putting that's not something that I would think would happen all week he's a very sporadic putter you've seen him go out there light it up the first three days and then completely disappear on Sundays we've also seen them you know start a little bit slow at golf tournaments and then go out there and find like two three shots into the positive when it comes to the flat stick so you know he's 10 grand he's going to be a little bit lower owned than some of the guys around him uh less than half the ownership of Scotty shuffler when it comes to the projections but lower owned than theander than guys like a Rory Hideki matama so if you're looking to get a little bit cute with ownership right trying to get a little bit different with your you know first man in out there in lineups he could be that option at about 18.4% projected ownership what I like even more about L viig go bear is the fact that he has that positive putting regression so you know if you can go out there take advantage of that go out there have a spike round with the flat stick you hit the ball more than fine today hit a lot of darts I saw him hit one out there in whole three out there to about two feet goes out there and does that maybe the putter doesn't even matter out there for round two but if he gets anything working with the putter which you've seen him on Bermuda this year have a lot of really good performances in fact you take a look at the Bermuda numbers he's gaining over a half a stroke putting per round and uh we could be really cooking out there for our round two lineups next up we got what is it Patrick kley at $9,200 he's a 24.3% own so you're not not going to get any different by taking Pat or Klay but that's kind of like par for the course down here in the 9k range in fact I've got guys at more like Mora nearly 30% ownership as same Burns is also nearly 30% owned himself so while a 24.3% owned player right looks pretty you know shitty from the top level view reality is he's actually about average if not just maybe slightly above average ownership over there in this 9k range and what I like about Patrick Klay is that he had a decent round not a great round for his standards at least and he lost a bunch of Strokes with the putter so just to give you some exact numbers I'll give you guys the Oar putting numbers which uh for OAR he lost 1.3 Strokes putting and uh still Tia green was a little bit negative off the T as well which uh you're not used to seeing for L big Klay though granted he shot minus two right so it's not even like Klay had a bad day so let's not completely raid you know on his parade here but he had lost 2.86 Strokes out there with the putter so outside of that gained around the green gained with the approach play was also a slight Gainer with his off the te play he's the exact kind of player that I could see going out there flipping that flat stick and having a super low round so I love that for Klay you know he's coming with some ownership because he you know starting at a slightly better score but I'm still somebody that I think is more than playable also like a big dick Vic he had uh a really good score when it came to Fantasy performance you played him in Showdown today you were certainly happy about having him in lineups but he's also the kind of player that played much better than his scorecard would indicate in multiple double bogeys on the round he also had a bogey on top of that to take away from his actual score so minus two right doesn't look that great on paper but uh the fantasy scoring the birdies that you took from if you played them in Showdown today are the exactly what we're looking for out there in round two so you know 24% ownership right it's not like he's low owned out there in this range but he's lower owned than Keegan he's lower owned out there than a Windam Clerk and arguably is playing better golf than both of those players ball striking stats heading in by the way for Victor and he's only $8,400 too which is uh just way too cheap for somebody of his talent level you're getting a really good price tag a guy who's hitting the ball well played well out there in round one and is not going to be chalk right all those things are normally things that are conducive towards somebody being Mega chalky and you see I only have them at about 24.1% also like a little bit of sjm here at 20.6% uh had a really rough start to his golf tournament I believe was plus three through his first three holes Assam hit his drive on four I had not seen his first three holes out there and uh he hit it to the side I think he wiped it to the right I couldn't really see where the ball flight was for my position but what I did see was him slamming the driver down which you know I thought could go one of two ways you know when you see that from a player it shows that they care right so they're still grinding out there trying to get their score going but sometimes they can get in their head right you see him spiral out of control you know go from plus three to maybe plus five plus six in a hurry he went out there got the thing under par by the end of the day so clearly took that as a challenge was engaged was just trying to grind it out out there and now even though the scorecard doesn't look like he had the best of rounds he made a lot more birdies than guys that were shooting like even minus three minus four rounds out there so um just like hin I think a guy that should be getting more Steam and it's not like he's Mega low owned at that 20.6% Mark but at the same time that's about average for that range which by the way there's only 30 players so your average ownership in the field is about 20% so if you're telling me he's about an averagely owned play despite what I think is really positive momentum heading into this rounds and I'm going to be a buyer all day so that's why I'm using him in lineups uh same thing with some of the other guys we've mentioned right no one here is going to be above your average ownership right like guys like Klay hins might be slightly above the average when it comes to that ownership but in no Bear right overlooked especially compared to some of his peers and uh with these last two plays that we talk about here in a few minutes it's going to be much of the same so if you could guess right guys like sahith you're going to be a little bit chalky a uh I think even like Adam Scott you'd throw into that category like a Keegan Bradley are just guys I'm not going to get to right if they're going to be chalkier then I think they should be if they're going to be getting any sort of Mega steam out there in round two right it's only an 18 hole sample I'm not going to let that go out there make my decision-making process and more importantly I'm trying to look for things and players um for sunjay by the way he also let's sort this by putting he was also a loser with the putter so he gained in the three T to Green categories uh actually slight loser off the T but gained on approach and gained around the green but he lost 1.44 Strokes out there with the putter so um that was the clear problem for him and just like a can't lay right just what we talked about with Oar um I think that's a reason to get to some guys here right if they went out there they ball stroke it well it's a brand new golf course brand new greens maybe they're still trying to get used to it a little bit hopefully they can figure it out try and find that BCE back for us um which would be huge out there in our lineups worth noting with uh good old hland the putter was into the positive he was a a little bit hit or miss out there with the ball striking stats but uh the big reason why he's so negative off the T for example is because he lost 1.8 Strokes off the T on a single hole the reason why the putter wasn't like three Strokes out into the positive is he lost a stroke putting out there in hole number 10 approach plays a lot of the same a lot of big losses on single holes so I think that's another way you can look at some of these players as well is if it's only like two three holes that held them back from having a really good day then you could argue of course that there's upside for them to correct that and then go out there and have the kind of round that you're looking for so I would say that that's the case with havland and uh you could say the same thing about sunjay of course I'm starting three overpar through his first three holes which uh was sub ideal as somebody that played a ton of them this week what's going on Blake said Luke my man hope I enjoyed the tournament today I did it was a lot of fun just really hot out there he said you like Oar up top fenale mid tier and then Benny Anne for tomorrow uh Benny an's one of those guys that could pop off with the flat stick so I'm right there with you Tony feno maybe a little bit more of a sneaky play but uh I like it dude who's my favorite bounceback golfer so Sam honestly I think almost every player that we're going to talk about here would be a bounceback golfer so you're going to have a lot to choose from so I'll let you choose favorite out of the ones that we've talked through but probably one of those you know the waves may have been influential um not sure what you're talking about there's no waves that's for sure hold up hold up Luke without the Hat yeah it's it's a first it's it doesn't happen often that's for sure uh will I ever play a guy in round two that had a great round to run yes I do it so there are definitely guys that I'll play after having a low round but it is rare I would say I don't use them very often unless the ball striking stats were just popping off the page or if the eye test is really just something that and I think they're super confident I think that they're going to carry that day today it's usually hard to predict who those players are so I in general don't play as much chalk as I would say other people out there do but there are spots where I will now round two I don't think that there are any like true chalky pieces that I'm using out there in my lineup so it's a kind of a Pur late thing right sometimes I do sometimes I don't and you saying that Henley is looking good to you for example so yeah you could get there I don't think he's going to be Mega chalky either so I think he's going to get some steam out there at his score I don't think it's going to be anything too crazy right yeah gained on approach slate Gainer off the te and with the around the green play so I can't complain about it yeah I think he's an okay option like if you're going to take a chalky player to me I think you just maybe have to be a little bit more careful about it right if you're going to take somebody that's average to maybe above average ownership just really make sure you're deep diving the shots gain metrics right make sure that they're playing in a way that is sustainable from dayto day something that you're comfortable with after round one and everything I see there with Henley it's pretty decent do I have any videos to help you understand terminology I do actually Ally great question um there's a video on my channel where I talk through some of the main golf DFS terminology so I think for the sake of these live streams that' probably be the most helpful out there for you and you're saying you're leing uh you're learning you're understanding Strokes gained in birdies but you need help with everything else that would be a good place look at it if you're looking for like golf specific things like when it comes to Stats um I believe there are a few videos out there as well that weren't published by me that uh would probably help you out there too so check out that video on my channel uh that's more DFS based that's more talking about like fantasy sports if you're looking for golf stuff I would i' probably look on YouTube elsewhere because I don't really have a video on that in particular at least yet it's going on Mark round score props are lower than yesterday um taking overs was profitable you must have gotten lucky then Mark the scoring average was minus 2 and a half so I profited by taking overs on birdies and unders on Strokes so I think that you just picked some lucky combinations mark because uh if you're just joining us we went through this before scoring average was 68 and a half right which is uh the same if not lower than a lot of those Strokes lines so yeah they're they're lower because the golf course was easier which in a few cases probably makes sense I do think that pins are going to make things a little bit hard for tomorrow so you know if you could find some value on some overs I think you might be on to something out there for round two but yeah round one if you profited with uh overs on Strokes I I think you got a little lucky if I'm being honest that's uh again not a dis at all congrats that's good stuff but I do think you may have got a little lucky there if you did you meant that for the tournament waves does not seem that influential yeah there's no way to do it for a 30 player field right for 50 player field for example right it's just like not a thing full event stuff when you have 156 players um even if it's like 120 out there for like an Invitational that matters for sure right we talk about that every week right that's that's a huge focus of ours over here on the channel not so much when it's a 30 player field though and uh Sam by the way it's because the guys started with Strokes right so the guys that were teen off later for the guys that started at the top of the leaderboard so I think that's why you're saying that man what's going on Hamza you should stream one day out there uh I would get kicked out unfortunately Hamza or else I would and uh is Keegan Bradley on steroids or something no he uh he had a very average round if anything had a very good day over there in Colorado but uh good tournament I should say out there with the win but uh no he's not on steroids he just had a good Dr a good week last week all right let's talk about some lineup construction stuff let's build a lineup together and get this thing going and uh by the way if you're saying that because of his prop today he had five birdies but he made them like from 10 15 feet so congrats to him he Lux acted the Putter and got to five birdies which was just slightly better than the field average so yeah I don't think you need to be on steroids to go out there and gain3 birdies to the field but uh maybe you do I guess damn your secret is out now you're saying out there with the the waves okay there you go dude I honestly don't know what you're saying all right let's build a few lineups together so what we're going to do here is just kind of talk through the things I'm looking at when I'm building a lineup U which varies from contest to contest but for the sake of this we're going to focus on The Big Field gbps which is pretty similar to what I'd be doing there in single enturies uh the one difference I'll say is that gpps were really going to have to force in differentiation um reason for that these large foot gpps are so topheavy with the payouts that duplicating is just a complete death sentence when it comes to your long-term Roi um now single entries the reason why I say I'm not as worried about this is that it's a lot harder to go out there and duplicate yourself but in a 30 golf or field it is much easier to go out there and take the same six players as opposed to even when you have like 50 or 65 players if you know anything about you know the math of combinations out there um permutations would be different but this is combinational math out here um it's it's in factors of uh what is the what's the word for it it's a it's the exclamation point a factorial oh I've went to engineering school I'm electrical engineer by trade so I should have known that a lot quicker it's that information rubs off rather quickly when you get out of the industry yeah you you have to use U the exclamation Mark math out there which uh is Extreme it scales even more even more so than like an exponential graph um so when you go from like 30 players 60 even to like 65 70 like you get in a a cut event that has maybe more players that make the cut your chances of duplicating don't just go up like twice as much right you think maybe some of you out there think that's it's like okay there's 30 players as opposed to 60 like it's like maybe twice as easy to go out there and duplicate yourself no it's like 5,000 times we like actually more than that it's like I I can't do the mental math right now but it's like a million times more likely to go out there and duplicate yourself so even for like normal main slate stuff unless you're taking a bunch of chalk you're probably not duplicating yourself that often out there in gpps but in a 30 player field you have a infinitely high it's not actually infinitely higher but you have an infinitely higher chance of going out there and duplicating yourself which is why in those big field contest you better be getting different you better be going out there maybe leaving some salary on the table because if you're winning first place place maybe you chop it you know you're happy that one week longterm though that is going to have a massive impact against your Roi so I would say if you're going to play The Big Field gpps you're going to play in the 150 Maxes big $5 big $25 whatever it is go out there and play it the right way if you win make it actually matter don't go out there chop it with 10 other people uh maybe it's like more realistically right like chopping with like four or five people go out there to win and win by yourself which is real simple to do you could do it even playing with Scotty you could even do it with playing like Scotty and you know a chalky guy down low like sahit theala you could take those two kind of players if you leave salary on the table you leave 500 maybe even ,000 Dollar on the table you take those chalky pieces all you want so I think it's pretty simple when you're going out there and building lineups guys you know just cater it towards the contest that you're entering you're entering the large field gppp make it a priority to make sure that you're not going to duplicate yourself if you're going to enter out there in like a single entry contest you want to be a little bit more focused on just taking the best play play but even at that point you still need leverage against the other entries that you're playing against so you know if you're going to take a pretty chalky Scotty shuffler um maybe you don't accomplish it by leaving salary on the table but maybe by not taking the chalky saah down low right maybe that's where you're forcing in some 10 to 12 14 percenters maybe down there in the six and 7K range to go out there and offset a 40 to 50% on Scotty so that's what I'll say about lineup construction we're actually going to build a lineup uh together here in a second if you have any DFS questions uh we're going to be going on to props here in a few minutes so go ahead let me know down in chat what you guys are thinking and yeah if you're here for the underdog and prize pick stuff will be on that in probably about two three minutes so just hang tight we'll be talking about those here in a few minutes and dub we'll get after it we'll need some shots from the stands if possible uh yeah so I have a few pictures Sam so if you're in the Discord I'll try and throw those on there um I threw a video over there on the prop Channel if you want to check that out now Sam but uh yeah I took some pictures some videos out there uh that I didn't end up posting on Discord yet uh I got a few videos off the tea I got Windom who anytime I see Windam with a driver um I turn and walk that way right if I see Windam on a t-box especially a power five like iy was able to catch him on today um that's a no-brainer right it's like seeing Rory with the driver right you see Rory stepping onto a t boox you go okay I I want to watch that right and you walk that direction so I got a few um t-shot videos I got Rory driving I got Windam driving uh coincidentally both had probably the worst driver swings of the day when I went out there and took the video but U yeah I'm sure I'll be sure to post them dude factorial exactly golly that's the thing dude when you're in school and then you don't use it for like or even out in the workforce like I was right and you get out of it for like three four years like I am you lose it quick that's for sure it's like Spanish I went to school I took seven years of Spanish um high school and in college I added on top of it if I went down into like a restaurant I could order I could do like normal things but it would take me a second or two to compute it it'd be pretty embarrassing for somebody that was nearly fluent at some point uh now I'm nowhere close to that that's for sure uh you see I got a tan already yeah pretty much am I gonna play the course after or just go back home can't play the course after it's a private course East Lake if they invited me out to do so I 100% would go out there and just stay and play unfortunately don't have my clubs with me so I'd have to rent a pair out there from the club but uh unless they're going to do that unless they're going to invite me out Hamza unfortunately I won't be able to it's a like I said a private establishment can't just make a tea time out there at East Lake or else I absolutely would it's an unbelievable golf course after seeing it in person you'll be looking forward to those absolutely Sam I got you I'll post a few uh before head out to dinner let's build this lineup here so when you're building this is going to be for like the larg fille gpp um I'm just going to use Scotty here just for the sh sake of like showing you how you could make one of these lineups different um this is not a lineup that I'd be getting myself so like for example we're going to use Scotty in this lineup I'm also going to throw in a s theala at $6,900 both of which by the way aren't in my player pole but the reason why they're throwing these two in here is that they're going to be much higher round than some of their peers and for as much of a sin as I think that is right you should not be going out there just taking chalk at all six spots even if you do it in two spots and you have the 40 plus percent out out there with Scotty shuffler you can still make this lineup work and I guess I'm just doing this to prove prove a point to show you that as long as the rest of your lineup is built properly um you're going to be good to go even in like the big five or big $25 so for our next man in we're going to go down here and find a little bit of a pivot now we're still going to have to take one more spend up so you know we not going toble to take somebody that's super low owned out here with this kind of play but this is where you avoid the Sam burns the Keegan Bradley's the Windam Clarks that are going to be really chalky and maybe where you take a chance on a Tommy Fleetwood maybe go down a little bit further and rather than taking a Russell Henley this is where you force in a billy horel as a pivot now I don't think you have to go that crazy out there in lineups so maybe you go down here and you throw in an oxe there at $6,800 um we're actually going to have to take one more spend up so let's go out there and just do that right now let's throw in a Victor $8,400 and then for your last man in so we've got the Scotty thalach um fleetwood's a little bit low owns but he's still over 10% as pretty much everyone is out here on the Slate in fact I believe all my projections at least everyone's over 10% owned uh btia same thing right he's in that 10 to 15% range havind we already know right he's a little bit over that 20% because we really don't want to duplicate ourselves here and uh just for the sake of this lineup right it's one of the Big Field gpps we're going to leave some salary on the table so we're going to go down here you could throw in a Sanjay I think as your last man in and because you have $500 left on the table because you were Mindful and played somebody like a Fleetwood um took a few other low on options like a batia in this lineup you probably get away with it out there in the larg fille gpp right this probably wouldn't be duplicated um it might and if it is going to be duplicated it's probably only going to be once out there in that kind of contest and you're accomplishing a lot of the things you're looking for you still have some of the higher projected owned plays right if you want to play like a Scotty theala lineups um and no one hears a horrible play like you know sunay I like a whole lot I love a hland out there Fleetwood baa maybe not my favorite plays in particular but still guys that project for about an average projection out there in round two so I wouldn't knock you for playing any of those sort of players so that's what I'll say about the Slate is that even if you want to take some chalk I guess you can pull it off I prefer to take some of the slightly lower owned options but you know do your thing up top right if you really want to plant your flag in Scotty um one of those other guys that's going to be like 25 to 30% just commit to them right go out there maybe a lock them maybe go out there and take them 75 to 80% of lineups just make sure you're getting over the field make sure you're getting some benefit out of using them in your player pole uh unless you're 150 maxing you're 150 maxing you could go 50/50 out there on Scotty uh maybe not my favorite approach to go out there and play DFS but you could do it it's at least reasonable if you have like 150 lineups if you're entering like five to 20 then forget about it right go out there commit to One Direction or the other on somebody like a Scotty which uh for a 5 to 20 5 to 20 maxer is probably either playing them in every single lineup or going out there and avoiding them in all five to 20 lineups so that's what we'll say about that that's all I've got out there for DFS uh I don't have any lights on in here by the way the place I'm staying has lights above I shouldn't say lights just holes in the ceiling with glass on them obviously uh that lets some of the natural sunlight through and U as the sun is going down I'm getting darker over here so I might have to turn on a light here in a minute hopefully you can see me where we at you heard him playing at the content creator classic oh boy I wouldn't be pretty crew I probably would have beat like two people out of the field that they had this year so yeah if I play bet against me if they post props for it on any of the sites just tell them do you know who I am hey one of these days we'll get a big enough following that maybe they'll consider it and uh if I started to do actual golf videos you know maybe I could build that kind of Channel but I don't know if that's something I really want to do not really something that I Aspire for myself but I would say that the golf videos with me and my buddies would be a lot of fun there'd be a lot of things said that would probably make a lot of people mad but I guess it would be fun who knows my friends are a hoot they they just do not give a [ __ ] they say whatever is on their mind and uh I'm sure that there's people out there that would be triggered by the things that they say it's going on Hamza like over five and a half birdies for an easy cash um who you saying that for not sure but yeah five and a half birdies easy cash I don't know if I would use that in the same sentence but I guess Golf Course played easy right what about master two gloves so he played pretty well today right went out there he posted one of the better scores out there in the field I would say that he's an option but he is getting some steam um partially because how of how he started this week right that's part of that um yeah that's what I would say about it Luke over five and a half birdies of easy cash you're saying oh so I I see what you're saying now instead of like you Luke I don't know about that I don't know about that I would say that if they set my line for 18 holes around East Lake that a one and a half birdie line would probably be fair and that would be with like easy pin locations they give me PGA Tour pin locations I'd be that 0. five line that you saw for John Daly at like the PGA Championship I'd be that 0. five line that you saw for VJ Singh I think it was at the Open Championship yeah it would not be great it's just too long of a course for me to play from the tips I'm not that long off the te I hit it 280 when I hit one good and that's with roll out of course I don't carry at 280 yards so it would be a tough scene you had some guys out there that really played well are there Cuts so no cut this week Rez uh good question it's a uh 30 player event so everyone will play the four rounds um rounds three and four you may have to look at motivation as a factor as uh even though there's no cutline if you're completely out of it you might not care as much as some of the other guys that are closer to the lead or at least in the mix out there for positioning um so yeah no cut line but there's that to consider I would say and of course I got you dude all right let's talk through some of these averages and then talk about the underdog and prize pick stuff so the averages from today already mentioned the scoring average of 2.53 under biring average was 4.65 I would say that that's probably going to go down a little bit um assuming that they're going to have slightly harder pins and then this bogey average here at about two per round I'm not sure if that one's going to change that much actually um I would say if anything it's going to go slightly up um just like the birdie average going slightly down out there with some harder pins but I think the bigger difference is going to be that the super easy holes so your three par fives um like hole eight like I think it might be a slightly harder setup for tomorrow so I guess we can stop guessing let me see if they've posted the pins over there on Twitter yet if they have I want to do a little Deep dive on them as I think it's going to have a massive impact on scoring so it doesn't look like we have the pin locations quite yet which is unfortunate but is what it is but when we get those I'm thinking that the par fivs are going to be a little bit more tucked than what we had for today um would not surprise me if they moved back some of the par 3s U maybe not playing them at their full distance or full length but maybe just you know a little bit longer than what they were for today they were all moved up significantly when it came to their yardage so that's why I think that the averages might get a little bit harder um Fairways probably not going to move I think eight per round is is probably a pretty good barometer of what to expect and then this green regulation average it might go marginally down if they were to tuck pins a little bit more but that average isn't going to move all that much so I think that the bigger change might be from the scoring aspect if they go out there move some stuff around uh maybe they move those par 3es back that could also lower the green regulation average a little bit but outside of those changes these averages are going to be gold they're going to be things that we can use out there for our analysis and uh I guess just to give you a barometer of what I'm expecting I would say about two underpar I'd say about four and a half birdies I'd say like 2.1 Bogies at worse per round um eight Fairways I think is a good number and then this green regulation average maybe it's like 12 and a quarter per round uh might even drop that whole point5 like I'm calling for right there or maybe it's like I don't know like 12.6 per round 12.5 per round or something like that um you guys get the idea though that those are the kind of averages that I'm expecting and that uh I'm going to be running through these props with so let me refresh Underdog let's refresh prize picks uh Underdog did not have anything posted before we went live at least and then prize picks still doesn't have anything posted quite yet so yeah it looks like we got some stuff over here on Underdog which is clutch and uh they added new pictures by the way uh which is one of the first things that I noticed when bringing up their app today of course Sam said thank you for all the all the hard work time for dinner and best best of luck yeah D I can't wait for dinner myself it's going to be a lot of fun and I appreciate that man best of luck tomorrow let's go through this though so The Strokes lines and Underdog aren't really that much different than what they had for today right so just to go through those like Scotty is still 67 and a half um Rory was at 68 heading into the week let's see what else guys like Sam Burns at 68 and 1/2 pretty much the same as heading into the golf tournament um havland is a 68 and2 oh boy so they didn't adjust the board very much which I kind of agree with if I'm getting be honest with you because if I think it's going to be like a minus two scoring average you know having a guy like morawa at minus three makes sense given that he usually gains to the field right at about a stroke per round in fact over his career H okay so I kind of agree with what they're doing here but I also want to bring up let me see if DraftKings or FanDuel have anything posted which uh I'm not sure that fandel is actually going to let me bring it up which is crazy uh this laptop by the way whatever it is when you're like at a state or you're in a state where like some of these books are illegal sometimes you can bring up the props sometimes you can't depending on where you're at so here's Draft Kings we're definitely going to have that to look at but I would prefer to be able to look at a FanDuel as well as you guys know so let's see so Fleetwood 16 and a half and he's Juiced under okay good to know the these look like identical lines to what they had yesterday by the way oar minus 15 155 pretty much the same number Rory is actually at 67 and a half now so they bumped that one down a little bit but he's Juiced over as you can see with the minus 155 69 and a half for the gala and he's Juiced under um I ended up betting that today in that hit which was pretty sweet what was he at over here so he's at 69 flat in terms of a projection let's keep going through this even money for Xander at 675 and pretty much the same thing for Scotty which is a little bit surprising I thought they might put him down to like minus 140 juice but uh he is at even money right there and compared to the Sportsbook ODS I think that they're dead on with most of these right like so Rory was 67 and a half and Juiced over he's at 68 Strokes um somebody like a sath right was Juiced min what was itus 155 under 69 and a half he's down there at 69 Strokes so it looks like they pretty much copied DraftKings or maybe DraftKings went out there and copied Underdog when it came to their pricing but maybe a few that we could take advantage of so one that still out what was kley at so yeah kentley is minus 130 towards the under if you weren't with us when we were talking about the draftking stuff before talking about some of the Showdown plays Klay lost the most Strokes out of anyone on the field today when it came to putting in fact by the way he's one of the better Putters so that's why I say that you know so surprised out there with Patrick kley and he still shot minus two you see he lost about three Strokes out there with the putter so I I honestly think that he's going to have a really good day at least he's due for some positive regression I would say so I'm going to throw him in there it's not the most juice but at the same time I I liked him even before right we were looking at the sports book ODS auror at 68 I don't think is the worst idea but I do prefer these guys at like 60 8 and a half or or maybe even like 69 and a half Strokes as I prefer to stay away from the ties when I can um let's see clerk was even money right is that right so Windam Clark he was closer towards the bottom yeah he was uh I guess marginally juice towards the under he looked really good out there so the reason why I was line shopping for him and I wanted to look at the under is uh Wendy looked really in control of his golf ball he was confident he was putting the ball well as well which you're not always going to get from him but he is one of the better Putters out there in the PJ tour I think he looked pretty good out there so I don't know Gavin's pointing out oxy at 69 and a half yeah is that on Underdog I'm assuming it is right because it's the only board that we've got up here so maybe even a silly question of me to ask so yeah 69 and a half H essentially be asking for a field average round right is is what we're asking for oay batia worth noting that he is a below average player but to have a field average round I don't think is the craziest thing to ask what we have to kind of consult here is we need to look at the shots gain metrics so he did lose on approach today he did lose off the te so these shots gain metrics are probably the only reason I wouldn't play that myself but with the scoring average that we're expecting right around a minus two scoring average you're not asking him to do anything crazy to go out there and shoot minus two so I'm probably not going to play that one myself but I would certainly lean towards the under um Tommy Fleetwood by the way just saw this one on here he was what was it minus 145 towards the under so maybe he's the pairing that we go with out there with a Patrick hlay um just to show you the shots gain metrics of Tommy Fleetwood I guess we need to Deep dive it before we commit to it he lost two strokes on approach which is horrible that's the about the opposite of what we want to see and then he gained with the putter now the one thing I'll say about Tommy and the reason why I'm going to forgive him for this and probably take him for the slip here is Tommy has been unbelievable hitting the ball recently in fact you take a look at like the recent form heading in he's a top five ball striker in the field now the issue the reason why he hasn't been winning golf tournaments with that kind of shots gain metrics is he's been losing like a half a stroke putting per round last weekend on Saturday round four Showdown brought this up that's why Tommy Fleetwood was one of our conviction plays for round four Showdown round three he went out there and gained with the putter which was like the first time he had done done it in Forever um just like Max homo by the way right he gained Strokes off the te round three was why he was such a nuclear play out there for us in round four Showdown last week which by the way round four Showdown went really really well one of the best rois I've had a showdown for quite some time without a takedown but that's the exact reasoning that we got to him and now he gained round one so the issue the thing that's been holding him back from having these low rounds has seemingly been figured out because the last two rounds last week the first round this week he's into the positive that off the te play that approach play has got to get better for him to go out there and have a week but it's Tommy Fleetwood I don't know if I'm that worried about it he's a striper hits the ball straighter than pretty much anyone outo um hits a bunch of Fairways also a really good iron player when he's dialed in so yeah 2.3 Strokes lost out there on the irons was not great today but uh I'll definitely play them so for the sake of this slip I kind of like those two but I want to find a fade if possible to make this payout a little bit better and H the average was only two per round it's a little bit risky with a pavon if we were to go with it but like he'd be the kind of guy I'd want to fade right a guy that's lower level worst form of anyone hitting into the week um what do they have these other guys at so like guy like morav was at one and a half I just want to see where they have like the better players so two for an Adam Scott I mean he could be a fate candidate out there at two bogey that's for sure so maybe there's a better options maybe we can find a shitty player at like two Bogies to go out there and fade but let's see what we've got so two and a half for a lot of these like lower tier guys um yeah two and a half for sep two and a half for Aaron Ry is crazy if anything I I think they under an Aaron Ry would be uh what I'd take for him in particular let's see let me gu about this water too once one thing's for sure guys if you guys head out to the golf tournament this week I know I had a few people on my Discord ask me about it today drink some water it is unbelievably hot and humid out there so what do they have pave on at for strokes right I don't think he had like a DraftKings line but what would he be at as I guess the question right because they do have sath at 69 and a half now granted he's minus 155 Juiced what would a shittier player be at my guess is 69 and a half and Juice over if we had those for comparison um FanDuel by the way it's not going to let me bring it up here on the live stream not GNA let me bring up the the odds I tried to yesterday it wouldn't work I'm gonna bring it up on my phone so it will work on my mobile app maybe it has to deal with like the wifi or whatever with why you can't bring it up but let me see if they have any like the shittier guys posted because I just want something for reference a little reference point to go off of so they have a lot of the same guys posted up top that you saw over there on DraftKings all the same players so far unfortunately there's uh Tommy is minus 140 on that site what was Klay Klay is minus 120 over there on FanDuel no shitty players everyone's decent I guess Keegan right he's 68 and a half and he's jued minus 140 for the over 68 and a half we could just go with the two man we could just take the worst payout on that 2.75x or 2.7x I guess for that combination but ideally if you guys have a fade that you'd like to PL or you know something that really stands out if you mix it in you're going to get a much much better payout so I guess just to show you what that would look like or if you find one it'd be 6.29 X out there for a three-man slip which is uh actually one of the better payouts that you can find across the industry I guess going through these like an Adam Scott at two like might not be the worst play let me bring up the stat averages on PJ tour.com just to to double check where he's at for the season long leaderboard he might I think he's like number 67 or something like that when it comes to his bogey avoidance but let's see let me share the screen and if it's exactly 67 then we're going to fade him because that's a that's a sign if I could remember that off the top of my head ah he's number 59 so damn close I guess last week his good performance at the BMW had him improveed on that quite significantly that's not bad actually he's he's got one of the better bogey of Witnesses on tour at that kind of number at least in this field two Bogies though there's a ton of push Equity at that kind of number oh yeah that's that's a tough one it's the same payout pavon is undeniably a worse player right so if you're going for over Equity pavon has more of that going going to three plus Bogies or worse the issue is that the projection on Adam Scott right gives us a lot of leeway with this two bogey projection it's a tough one we'll we'll have to Circle back on that hopefully after we have a prize pick sport here so let me refresh list let's see what we've got if not we'll go to pick six hopefully delay enough to go out there and get a prize picks board but uh yeah let's go to pick six so nothing posted on prize picks quite yet there's PGA Tour get off my screen we do not care thank you I can't even play Pick six so I especially do not care so at 67 and a half you've got a few more players posted over there on the site 68 and a half a lot of the same cats that we have over there on Underdog so nothing that really stuck out at least for The Strokes lines that we had there um five and a half birdies for the top two expected but I would never take an over on somebody at 5 and a half birdies I think just asking too much unless it's a joke of a golf course while it's easy this is not a joke of a course that's for sure and then four and a half for a bunch of mid tier players oh God uh by the way I think that's probably the correct projection for a lot of these guys and if anything I think you would take their under at four and a half birdies as I think the average of the field will probably be at about four and a half and I guess outside of like Aaron Ry he's probably better than average I mean even like a hor like these bottom four players even like Adam Scott I guess you can include it in that they're below average players in this strong of a field that's what you got to remember with these props right is like normally OE I know we had like the question about the 69 and a half Strokes um if this was a normal Tour event I would be hammering that because asking him to have an average round in like a regular Tour event is Cakewalk for him right he does that all the time um this kind of field though right he's even like a below average player so we gota we got to remember that when we're doing these props because it could have a massive impact on how we're going out there and attacking things I've got to say this picks six board is not my favorite like I guess in terms of like plus EV stuff this over on mavor Strokes uh is Believe It or Not plus EV everything else though is pretty much a tossup like I guess the under un cantlay right we were pointing that one out like you could play that on this site too but the rest of these 68 and a halfs are all pretty much a tossup I did like Windam Clark so if you're just trying to find something to put together and you're you're not like worried about it being Mega value out there that you're entering like you know technically Rory's value but guys like can't lay Windom I don't think it' be the worst leans at this four and a half you know if I was going to mix in anything here like maybe an under on straa for birdies and I still think he's capable of having a pretty good round but at the same time four and a half birdies is asking quite a bit so I'm probably siding towards like these top three like maybe even these top two if you just want to enter like a twom man slip out there for tomorrow but this board especially because we just don't have that many guys to choose from right it's like eight birdie lines and uh 10 Strokes lines to choose from it's just not it's never been the best product uh they've been trying to change a few things lately uh to make the payouts a little bit different uh which I think is great I think they're trying to you know improve their product but right now it's it's still leaving a lot to be desired for me so let's Circle back to Underdog hopefully we can get a price fix board posted before we get off live stream here but uh let's let's figure out what we're actually going to do with these props because you know I would say this Fleetwood prop we're locked in on I'm like 100% I'm committed to playing this Tommy Fleetwood prompt the can't lay one I'm at like 60 65% on whether I want to play that one or not this Adam Scott one I'm 5050 on maybe chck and help me maybe if you like one of those you can sell me on it but I'm still I'm still a little bit ify on those other two any matchups that I like so it depends on what kind of matchups you're talking about so whether it's like three balls um I guess it wouldn't be three balls this week it'll be head-to-heads over there on books or whether you're talking about like birdie or better matchups so just uh clarify for me and then I'll let you know if Adam Scott hits exactly two bogeys and pushes does the slip pay out like a Twan rate yes and I think the way that they do it with golf because golf has the multipliers right you got to treat it a little bit differently than some of the other sports is I think it just like pays you half so if it's like 6.29 X out there for the three-man I believe a pushed Twan slip would pay like 3.1x or I guess like 3.09 X if they choose to go that Direction with the rounding but I believe that's how they do it so don't quote me on it I think it could be different but that's that's at least what I think so yeah you're talking about the matchups I'll bring them up on DraftKings so I can't bet any here so I'm in Georgia unfortunately I think all sports books are illegal here I might be wrong on that by the way they might not be and if not I guess I could have you know few other ways to get exposure but uh yeah my book that I use down in Florida I can't use up here in Georgia so I'll look through them but I can't play them myself unfortunately so we're just going to look at the ones without a tie I I prefer the play of the market where you don't have to worry about that plus 550 tie and these of course right if they tie if they have the same score it it would be a refund which I prefer over that other scenario and uh going through these and it's really dark now you guys probably can't even see my face it's getting so dark in here uh which is great I have a little bit of a headache so it's great for my headache though the lower lighting so I'm actually not going to change it but going through some some of these two balls let's make sure the right tabs up it is cool so Xander versus Adam Scott Xander is the clear favorite but minus T25 odds uh I guess you could play it if you put it in a parlay because I do think that Adam Scott is due for some regression uh I think in general you know Xander shafley is is probably going to get a lot better than what we saw for round one so I think there's a lot of reasons why you know I think Xander is going to crush Adam Scott tomorrow but minus 225 is a lot to lay so if you're going to play it I guess throw it in a parlay if you can but uh I'm not sure with the DraftKings roles on whether you can actually do that over there on that site but uh yeah minus 225 I mean if it was closer to like minus 175 I'd probably be hammering it minus 225 feels a little bit more appropriate but still definitely the lean H Dei versus Keegan is an interesting one because I would say the H Dei should be a much larger favorite than this minus 145 which isn't unsubstantial juice right it's still minus 145 but you got to remember like an even line over here like you see this is like minus 115 versus minus 110 is minus 115 so yeah Hideki just clearly the better player than Keegan I would say that the form between the two is pretty close all things considered because uh sure Keegan won last week but Hideki also won the week before that and before that Hideki was playing better golf than Keegan rad so I actually think that out of all of these matchups that that's like by far my favorite that we've seen I think that Patrick kentley should be more than a minus 120 favorite over Russell Henley I think Henley's a little bit of a fraud if we're being honest I think that kentley's like just clearly the better player so let's go ahead and throw him in there I don't want to take all favorites but I am these two in particular they just I think they should be Juiced a lot more than what they are considering their opponent don't love any of these underdogs especially against guys like havland Oar that every they like tomorrow just uh probably not the best spot to take a fade I think Benny Anne is live for a sneaky round but uh Tony fenal is a tough guy to try and pick against honestly between these this batia and hogi if hogi was plus money if even if this was like plus 100 odds which it's pretty damn close to it out there at minus 105 I I'd be taking Tom hogi versus batia as hogi had a a much better ball striking day than oxe and oxe lost strikes off the te and on approach so yeah honestly minus 105 might even be good enough to get there but yeah th those would probably be my favorite two balls you know going through them the guys that are like minus 170 minus 180 like you see like Fleetwood for example is minus 170 versus Kirk like that's why I think Hideki should be like a Dei should be like minus 175 versus Keegan and it's it's not like it's a discs towards ke but like Hideki is just clearly the better player between those two options that's what I say on the matchup side man let's see any board on prize picks yet I'm just hope I'm just hoping that they post that over there so uh we'll have to see on this exposure I'm not sure if we're going to be able to decide on this before we get off live stream as uh price picks unfortunately has not hooked us up with a board quite yet but of course guys for all the different exposure that I'm taking make sure to check out the patreon page on there I'm posting every single slip that I'm putting my money behind and giving you guys all the thought process and reasoning for getting to all of those options so on there of course right I can tell you right now I will be playing that Tommy Fleetwood prop 100% uh that kly props probably closer to like 70% now that I'm going out there and playing still kind of 50/50 on the atam Scot one but if I end up getting to all of those you're going to get the full breakdown the full projection breakdown on why I like all those different options that on top of that right that's the prop tier that'll give you access to this Underdog and prize pick plays also we've got the DFS tier over there for The Showdown side so with that spreadsheet that you saw with all my projections that were blacked out for everything on there uncensored including my entire player pull out there and contest uh all my projections all the ownership out there for tomorrow slate I'll make sure to check out the DFS tier for that but that's all I've got guys I've got dinner reservation in an hour which I've got to shower for I've got to get ready get into the Uber and all of that so I appreciate everyone stopping by as per usual best of luck out there with everything that you guys are doing tomorrow and uh yeah we'll have we'll have a light next time I'll have my ring light behind the camera there so you guys can actually see me as time goes on and uh yeah round three four live streams We Begin right back after it out here for this week so I'm stoked for it still got a whole weekend to come hopefully round two treats us nicely out there and you can go out there and have ourselves a week it's all got appreciate you guys and uhu catch you guys for the next live stream