BMW Championship Round 3 DFS Preview + Live chat : Draftkings Showdown, Underdog + Prize Picks Props

e e e e e e [Music] [Music] [Music] welcome on in go fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our round three live stream for the BMW Channel chionship going to break down what to expect from this golf course get you ready to enter some Showdown lineups any prop slips over there on Underdog and priz fix as well as go over any of your questions down in live chat so we're going to start it off with a look at the golf course in the weather what to expect both from the tea times setup and perhaps whether there's an edge for targeting one side of the tea times or the other and then towards the end of the video going through some of my top DFS plays also a few props on Underdog and prize picks that are sticking out and throughout the middle all of that going to be filled in by you guys the gaps all of those questions whatever you guys are curious about out there for Saturday whether that's pin locations a weather forecast a different prop a different matchup that you want me to look at just let me know down there but other than that hopefully you're having a fantastic Friday evening or again after it maybe have some plans out there for this evening and if you don't well go out here build some DFS lineups with us I've got to get out here to a dinner in about an hour so we've got to keep this one in about 40 maybe 45 minutes but uh yeah hopefully you're having a great evening and uh let's get on after it Antonio down there say hi down in live chat as you guys get into here and uh let's get on after this thing so first off just want to mention our presenting sponsor of the live stream which of course are our friends over there at the shipet nation they are a source that is great for all your needs with DFS not just over here on the fantasy golf side and I know while we focus on Showdown over here on these previews over there on the shipet nation side they've got you covered for football in a few weeks they've also got projections for basketball hockey when that comes around um they've had some um stuff up there um for golf obviously out there for every single round so if you're a player that goes out there uses multiple different sports is trying to get exposure maybe for MMA you can see on there college football Nascar or other sports that they cover as well um then make sure to check them out they're a great all-encompassing site they're not going to overcharge you out there for what they're offering and it's one of if not the best product in the industry especially if you're looking looking for an all-encompassing package they've got you covered for projections with all those different sports they've got ownership a lot of process based stuff over there um very specific content creators for all the different sports too that'll help you out with your process along the way so I know a few weeks ago maybe maybe you saw me out there with the MMA takedown well my projections were from the shipit nation that week so obviously I went with a little bit of my own player pull out there but used their projections out there in the optimizer I was using and ended up having a really good week so code Luke 10 if you want to sign up that will give you a 10% discount off any membership over there and uh nothing but positive things I can say about them but let's take a look at this golf course from today and uh try and learn from what we saw out there which in terms of a scoring average between morning and afternoon it did Play Slightly easier out there in the first half of tea times but it was about a three shot difference so it wasn't a half a shot difference like I was kind of calling for and a lot of that was because of the wind forecast it was calling for much more significant wins in the afternoon than what we actually got in reality and you could see towards 2 to 3 pm which was maybe like the last two hours of play you saw the wins kick up to what they were forecasted at which was 12 to 15 miles hour sustained but it was only for like the last eight nine holes for the last few groups and a majority of the field right at least like two-thirds of them were already done with their round so it didn't have a massive impact outside of the last few groups on the golf course and and that's why it was a little bit flatter than I think what we are calling for before so obviously these weather forecasts can change a little bit um they can flip on its head sometimes that's not really what happened today it was just more so that those really heavy gusts that were going to blow these guys off the golf course just didn't come in as early as what they were expected so um the early forecast this morning by the way were calling for some extra stuff this morning which didn't really come through you can see 11 miles an hour at 11 I guess that was a little bit of a spike um same thing at 7: a.m when they first started I guess it was a little bit windier right there but even that forecast was also a little bit off so the Castle Rock weatherman I don't know if it's the modeling in that area has not been very reliable this week uh day one for example it was supposed to be really windy out there um was actually relatively calm for most of the morning out there Thursday and that wasn't really what they were calling for in the forecast so we're going to talk about the weather here in a second we're going to talk about that as we always do right try and break down what to expect but take it with a grain of salt is what I'll say this forecast has been changing quite a bit in fact like every 15 to 20 minutes I've seen an update over here on the HR forecast so if you wake up tomorrow morning if you're up before lock uh I'm sure many of you probably will be with I think it's like a 9:20 start time tomorrow just take a double check at the weather right Circle back on this because what I see here over the next five minutes might be completely unusable got Samuel down there what's going on we got Steven down there as well says thanks decky another one today's another one uh yeah Hideki withdrawing was great for my main slate stuff not for the few Showdown lineups that I played so yeah I would say forgive him dude he's a golfer he lost a whole lot more than you did um out there withdrawing from this event I mean the guy was in second place right out there after the first round so yeah I try to forgive the guys and Yeah tomorrow's a new slate so uh forgiv and uh forget I would say if you can at least I know it can be hard for some people but I've been doing this for a while right it's a little bit easier for me with that long-term perspective to forgive and forget but uh I would recommend it it's it's going to happen just kind of got to suck it up and take it and uh like I said Hideki is probably going to lose like half a million dollars from that withdrawal so he's hting the most trust me what's going on Hamza says Robbie Mack came in clutch he sure did he uh played really solid golf today really didn't make any putts so I think he's got some positive out there on their Horizon we got a Wayne down there let's find some winners Amen to that let's find some winners in indeed what's going on Antonio aberer is like a robot uh that shot on 14 in particular Antonio was an absolute stripe show uh was like 316 yards out there to six feet yeah kids a robot as you said what's going on Samuel are we expecting another five plus birdie Fest yeah probably it's still going to be relatively soft out there we'll start to firm up a little bit so we're going to circle back on that here in just a minute when we talk about the weather but especially early yeah Goldfish Memory always works exactly that's what I would say about it just try and you know Let it Go and frankly these players they don't withdraw unless they have to um I think the worst one ever was when Colin moraba with Drew I believe Two Shots off the lead on Sunday morning um devastating out there to anyone that had him in lineups and that one's the perfect example of like there's just nothing you could do he woke up with a stiff back had to go out there with draw this is a similar type of situation right he was up there towards the lead and had to leave uh again he lost a lot more than you so I don't know if I could be too mad about it let's go on Barry let's go Luke let's go Mor Cabo for round three I could see it so let's talk about this weather situation so terms of what we're going to get tomorrow here's the forecast and it looks spicy out there from about noon onwards you can see the wind gusts kick up to about 18 miles an hour about noon they're in that 15 mph range go out to like 13 mph around 3 it looks like a big storm might come through around 5:00 p.m. which is probably when they be finishing up play over there so this might not impact the guys unless they're the last few guys out there in the golf course you can see goes up to 22 miles an hour of sustained wind not only that but you can see the wind gusts go from about 10 miles hour maybe 15 about there around noon uh maybe a little bit before that like 10 11 a.m. afternoon though it's in the mid 25 mph range so the winds whether it's sustained winds or your wind gusts um get much more significant as the day goes on and the one thing that you're going to get without any rain in the forecast is I think slightly firmer conditions in the morning I still think it'll be more receptive than Thursday though um that is uh something I want to point out from the scoring average perspective but as the day goes on as it's sunny out there right evaporation happens um that wind is going to start to dry out the golf course a little bit by the afternoon I don't want to say it's going to be back to what it was for Thursday but this minus two scoring average if we remove this from like the morning afternoon right minus 1.96 scoring average average might be a thing of the past right even with moving day pins um you'd expect them to set it up a little bit easier um out there for Saturday just uh give a little bit more leaderboard volatility we'll St out there with the setup but with the fact that I think it's going to get slightly firmer it's most likely going to get a little bit more difficult with the scoring and as that firmness right starts to become more and more of a factor I think you're going to see conditions reflect that and out here for round three Showdown we're getting a really good setup out there for our Showdown lineups but because the guys that are out there in the lead that are teeing off towards the end of tea times and just to show you the tea times out here for tomorrow and go over here to the other tab you see graser's going off by himself first by the way um that would be because of the Hideki withdraw but we go down to the bottom your leaders are teeing off at what'll be like 11:35 local time over there in the Mountain Time Zone um you can see your first starters are going to be at 720 local time over there in Colorado so there's going to be quite a wide range of tea times out here so your guys that are teeing off about 11: a.m. those will be your leaders um maybe just a little bit after 11 out there with your leaders almost immediately about half an hour to an hour into their round are when the winds are going to kick up so almost a majority of the round maybe 16 of the 18 holes is going to be played in windy conditions and the firmest conditions of the day whereas if you take anyone's that tee off before that and ideally like the earlier the tea time the better here you've got lower sustained winds you've got lower wind gusts your a move it to the right so you can see it pass by big head out there in the bottom left a blocking the good view out there you can see the lower sustained winds and the lower wind gusts out there at that time of the day um that's going to be huge out there for your scorers so um those players coincidentally are also lower owned out there in gbps because they're not towards the top end of the leaderboard so we're getting a little bit of a double whammy right we're getting what I think are going to be the nutted conditions out there for Saturday and players that aren't going to be as owned out there in gppp and I don't think you have to go like all pivots out there in your six player lineup but you could make an argument for going out there and doing so for just trying to jam in as many low owned players as possible um maybe in gpps you could go out there and do that in a few builds you probably don't have to be as ambitious some mid to late starters uh especially maybe some chalk that's been playing well this week that you want to go out there and take for round three you could do that in moderation but I think a majority of your exposure should be the guys that are going off early and I would classify those players as the ones that are starting at like 7:20 of course maybe even out here to like 910 a.m. so if you're starting at like 9:10 a.m. you'll be finishing up your round around like I don't know 100 PM most likely out there with the two sums out there um it'll move faster right than thre sums on a golf course so if they're teeing off around nine they're finishing around 1 maybe 1:30 their last few holes will be played in windier conditions but it's only going to be their last three four holes so yeah I think the guys are around like 93010 are still in play but before that would be the guys I think with the nutted conditions out there for tomorrow um again the lower winds more receptive greens that might add up to like a half a stroke to even a stroke Advantage when it's all said and done so today right it was a minute Advantage right there was only like an hour or two of tea times that were really affected tomorrow it looks like it's going to be a much larger portion of the day now that could change right just like today's forecast right changed a little bit on us out there in the morning um we'll have have to see what happens out there for Saturday right maybe it ends up being this forecast that they're calling for which onto the surface right as of right now looks like the morning guys are going to get quite a big Advantage out there so let me bring up our DFS sheet we're going to talk through some of my top plays now um also catch up on chat see what's going on down there and uh figure out what we're doing out there for our exposure so we've got a game plan I think the early starters are be good for some leverage but that doesn't mean I'm only playing guys that have played horribly the first few days there are going to be some Scotties that we're playing who's uh by the way the highest owned player on the Slate but I'm still using them out there for tomorrow a Victor hin who's a little bit lower owned a Tommy Fleetwood who continues to just not be able to read the greens out there at every golf course that he goes to um we'll talk about it though we'll talk about why I think Fleetwood has some potential um Victor hin to Scotty shuffler as well and what you should be looking for out there in plays to go out there and get your exposure not so much to give you guys plays to go out there and use your yourself of course if you agree with any of my takes feel free to go out there deploy the players as you wish but more so trying to point out how to cater your process out here for tomorrow the things to look for in players the sort of players that maybe I'm avoiding out there in my exposure I'll tell you what the green flags and red flags are out there for uh tomorrow's action so let's catch up on chat see where we were and uh figure out what we're doing your data has helped you so much just subscribed appreciate that Carlos the kind words over there and uh glad to help so let's keep it running go out here for round three and let me know if you have any questions if you're new to golf if you're new to the golf data maybe my spreadsheets in general um there might be some stuff on there that you're not sure about just don't be shy at all to to ask questions Carlos I've got you graser day tomorrow that's right you were saying that earlier Nick so uh Nick is a huge fan of the guys going off by themselves out there in a onome and yeah I have a feeling that Nick is playing graser tomorrow what's going on Antonio you would absolutely love carnage for at least one round um Keegan and kentley's approach are just dialed with the High wins yeah they honestly held on pretty well right I can't lay went out there made a birdie on a hole in number 18 for goodness sakes um crazy stuff Keegan looks like an absolute God right now um I faded him today out there for Bogies and he went out there and had a a really good day H craziness but yeah it's probably gonna come down at some point right Saturday Keegan's the thing going full Keegan has been uh what is it copyrighted at this point for goodness sakes with with how he plays out there in Saturday Saturday Sunday we'll have to see and uh Carnage circling back to like first comment there I think you're going to get it Sunday right if it doesn't rain tomorrow if it holds off for Sunday as well before that afternoon if the winds kick up like it's supposed to out there in Sunday it could be pretty difficult so we'll have to see again there's a lot of factors that have to come together right no rain and high winds but if we get that scoring average could play well overp part this golf course would not surprise me we saw that out there Thursday afternoon I think it played like nearly a stroke over par with firmer greens Sunday pin locations like that is it could be some Carnage it' be a lot of fun too can I believe that decky withdrew you were shocked uh yeah I know that's very sarcastic by the way out there with Nick and uh I tend to agree with you right Nick he with draws all the time it's kind of like something you have to accept out there um it's a very low percentage thing right if you play him over a season he might withdraw once maybe twice out there in the entire calendar year but when that happens you've kind of got to accept it so yeah I wasn't that surprised when I saw it in fact I had to have a little chuckle about it because um it happens so often it's like usas in right over there he hasn't done it as much on the LI tour but he was a Serial withdrawer before leaving for that side and it's a joke at a certain point um who else uh brand snedaker withdraws all the time uh outside of that not many other at least current players really do that kind of thing go on Antonio do the wins affect my player pool at all will be targeting guys with the low ball flight so I'll talk about what I'm looking for in players but a lot of it's just ball striking based um normally the better ball Strikers the guys that are hitting the ball better separate themselves out there in windy conditions you'll hear that from the world's top players uh a Brooks says it all the time right he wants it to be as windy as possible at major championships because it eliminates almost the entire field right he says that there's only like a handful of guys that he has to play against when a course is playing very difficult and it's the elite level ball Strikers that thrive in that kind of environment um you're going to miss greens you're going to be out of position it's about playing strategically and playing for the best score and guys like Scotty would be a huge benefit if that were to happen um in general though out there for tomorrow I'm not playing a ton of late starters right a majority of my guys are maybe like mid starters that I'd be taking in that kind of situation but if I was going to play a chalk guy that was out there in the last few groups it have to be somebody that is just hitting the ball beautifully like they can't be out there gaining like three four strokes putting because that's not going to get it done out there tomorrow especially when it gets hard out there in the afternoon maybe Dey needs a Sleep Number bed yeah usay and takes his uh bed around with him now so he actually has credited that for his Better Health maybe he needs to start doing that himself or not taking Spirit flights like he saw from him a year ago despite the two wins in June Scotty not winning after April is a real thing yeah and it happened last year right he had a really solid season was up there there towards the top uh ended up choking out there Saturday Sunday it's unfortunate I think it's in his head I think that's why he's so frustrated this week and uh yeah unfortunate what are we doing with Mr Rory um let me talk about Scotty first then we'll get to Rory maroy how about that Nick so let's start talking about our plays here start talking through some of the strategy ownership out there for tomorrow and what I like with Scotty up top is the fact that his ball striking today despite the fact that he shot even par was better than his round one performance and in round two Showdown he was relatively chalky out there right people got there I still I still think people are going to get there out there for round three but his ball striking stats were elusively better or at least uh maybe surprisingly is probably the best word for it better than what he had for round uh round one he's the kind of player that you'd expect to go out there in gain strs with his ball striking and he had a few really dumb mistakes today which made pretty average shots gain metrics actually look a little bit worse than they were in reality he was the kind of player that should have gained a stroke and a half out there in approach but two really bad shots again untimely erors from him where the reason why he lost over a stroke combined on those two shots alone and then off the te it was the same kind of thing whole 13 missing the Fairway a few other dumb mistakes lost him about s Strokes over like three drives um overall though his ball striking stats looked back to the regular Scotty shuffler he was HD shots to five to 10 feet um day one he was missing by 15 to 20 yards at times out there with his distance and uh round two it looked to to be a little bit more in control so rounds one I thought he luck booxed a little bit that was part of the reason why I faded him for round two which worked out for my Showdown exposure but for round three I would not you know count on that continuing uh it looked like he figured it out right him and Teddy Scott must have found a formula that works out there for his distances and if he's going to continue to hit the ball like that I think that he has a chance to turn around the putter by the way in terms of the shots gain metrics I'll give you those for Scotty out there today so if we go to round to me scroll down find Scotty sheer here he gained 81 shots off the T should have been closer to about a stroke and a half like I was saying before his approach play was 018 Strokes into the positive um that should have been closer to at least a shot gained if you removed some of the outliers and the big issue the reason why he only right shot even par today is because he lost nearly three Strokes with the flat stick that's the part of the game that is going to be um very volatile out there for Scotty and just to give you any semblance of Hope out there for his performance well round one he gained 1.73 Strokes out there with the flat stick so I think he figured out the distance I think that's going to be a huge factor out there with his ta to Green play if he can putt like he did Thursday marry it up with the TA to Green play that we had for today um it's one of those vintage super low Scotty shuffler rounds so I think that's within his range of outcomes even as a mid to later starter the kind of guy that I'll take as a conviction play so up top I'm looking for ball striking stats I'm looking for breadcrumbs out there with the putting that shows me that they're capable of making putts at this golf course if they've done nothing over the first two rounds I've got to see really good ball striking to make up for that but up with Scotty right we have one one good round of putting one really sour round of putting that we had for today and uh maybe he can figure it out out there for round three next up you got Victor hland uh I guess I'll give my thoughts on Rory before we talk about our next highlighted play here so Rory we had a question from Nick about that before but 10,300 what I like about Rory maoy for tomorrow is that the ball striking stats particularly approach play out there for Rory um has been sneakily good so he's lost with the uh around the green and the putter over the first two rounds which fer Rory isn't commonplace right he's a pretty stout short game player a pretty streaky putter too for the years gaining about a half a stroke putting per round so for him to be negative in both categories is uh definitely pretty surprising over the first 36 holes and the issue at the TPC Southwind FedEx St Jud was not the putter right it was the ball striking out there at that event so he's kind of flip-flopped the issues now he's the kind of player that's trying to go out there uh he's just can't make a putt right he's setting up a lot of Birdie looks particularly today um with the short game too he had some very simple up and downs that he just wasn't able to convert so it's uh if you take a look at the scoring let's take a look at his scorecard real quick I don't think it was the worst I think he made four or five birdies on the day so deceivingly decent start to the week and he's T15 right so we can't uh we can't you know hold it too much against him only three birdies I guess out there on the rounds but plenty of putts that were with missed within 15 to 20 feet which Rory maoy is normally automatic from that range in fact in round one he went out there uh he did lose point6 Strokes to the round but was able to convert on some of those longer putts so hopefully and it's it's a huge hopefully he can figure out what the hell to do with the flat stick um because the ball striking this week's been a lot better and I had huge question marks actually heard from people on site that Rory was struggling with figuring out the iron play and to this point that has not been the issue and minus three I think a lot of people would look at that score um and you know kind of be disappointed with it especially when you have Oar minus 9 you've got Adam Scott minus 13 out there just lapping the field but this is still right about field average actually just a little bit better right that field average over the first few days and he's positive in the two most important shots gain categories uh both off the T and on approach which uh to me is again what I look at the most out there for my players tomorrow I like Victor hind as well and speaking of that same kind of shots gained profile well everything I just said about Rory you can apply to Victor havin he's gaining off the T he's gaining with the approach Play Over the first few rounds he lost just under two strokes putting out there on Thursday and today that same story right just under two shots gained lost um putting to the field and collectively he's gaining about three maybe just under four strokes T green over the first three rounds it giving away all of it with the flat stick actually even a little bit more into the negative out there with the putter which is inexcusable he's got to figure that out to go out there in post a low score but the one thing we know about Victor havland is that he's a solid putter you've seen it lately you've seen him at the Olympics go out there Saturday Sunday make like 10 birdies over those two rounds a lot because of him just making 20 to 25 Footers and when he figures out the greens he can often times go out there and run the table so hopefully he can get the green speeds dialed in if he can just like he is able to over there in Paris he's got the kind of shots gained from the approach and off the te play which again most consistent from round to round uh the most important shots gain metrics that you should be considering um so far in this kind of event he's checking the boxes that we're looking for so I'm going to go out there and play him in lineups he's uh got some ownership it's not like he's super low owned out there at 16.6% but compared to a Colin I've got it over 20% worth noting that guys like Rory I have over 20% as well um even Xander shafley in fact of the guys that are $9,800 and up so from Colin more cabba upwards all of these guys are at least 20% owned out there in my ownership projections so um regardless of who you take up here I think you're going to be you know sharing them with a good portion of the field and even in this 9k range you know I've got Tony slightly lower owned and I only say slightly because he's still over 10% um out there in contest so even from like Corey Connor's upwards maybe with the one exception of Tony fenal ownership is extremely spread out um down here in that 9k range guys like a Patrick KL are just under 20% I've got Oar as the highest owned player in this range at um about 25% ownership to give you a little bit of a ballpark idea compared to my projections of course you want the exact number right just go over there to the patreon page and you guys can check that out but a Windom Clark down here at $9,000 I've also got a just under 20% ownership so so I would say from 9k plus you kind of just play your guys um you can get cute with guys like aony feno uh I guess Victor hland at 16.6% you could say the same thing about right he's um one of the lower owned guys in this range but even those kind of players are still well over the average ownership out there in this portion of the board so $9,600 I still like a Victor Holland it's not so much that he's going to give me all that leverage up top it's more so that I think he's hitting the ball well and has the upside for a low round if there are guys up here that you're taking and they're still at like 20 25% I don't know if I would sweat it all that much so from the lineup construction segment I think you've just got to be okay with eating some chalk up top so Xander for example right you want to back that up a Rory with those ball striking stats maybe you want to tail that out there a Klay an oar right oar is a I've got to say if there's anyone that's like a little bit chalkier than the rest uh it definitely is OAR $99,100 but even if you wanted to use him out there in lineups I think that it's not the end of the world because it's not like he's going to be 40% ownership and these other guys are going to be like 10 15% you're talking about like 18 19% ownership as compared to like 25% with ill bear so sure you're sharing them with a little bit less of the field right if you were to go with like a can't lay as a compared to an O bear but it's not a massive difference at the end of the day so that's the case for most of the board 9k plus uh ownership pretty spread out so just know that when you're going out there and building your lineups uh and again I think if anything that just means play your guys where we at if I have somebody in over 75% of my weekl long lineups do I just fade them over the weekend um it's not my uh not my favorite thing honestly he's uh I don't play guys 75% ever so I'm not really ever in that situation so just thinking back I played 100% John ROM out there at the Mexico open I didn't fade him over the weekend so I would consider still playing them right if you were have that much of a conviction play you took somebody in 75% of your lineups it probably means that they were a flag plant for you right the kind of guy that you're like okay taking regardless of ownership so yeah I'd say that much I think that you could still play them you could talk about fading him right just the self hedge I guess that's like what you're thinking about but at the same time I I like the conviction play I like standing behind it and trying to um play your guys especially if you thought so highly of them hey need to give you a shout out and say thank you your projections convinced you to go aberer and Scott you're feeling good heading into moving day by far the best golf DFS show out there I appreciate that Blake thank you man and uh you said you got to aberer and Scott so yeah I played Oar this week hopefully can win this event uh we got kley up there who else uh Clark at minus four is at least in the mix out there for an outright too let's run hot this weekend man that'd be pretty sweet what a day in golf yeah it was a lot of fun I enjoyed by the way the happy hour quite a bit um you had Smiley Kaufman out there with wind Clark who's the other one Sam Burns they had out there in the broadcast uh Sam Burns by the way sounds just like Scotty shuffler they both have that monotone very laid-back voice I found that very entertaining and then uh yeah when they when they had Windam on there he was saying some funny right they hit the shots to like five feet and be like oh it's okay because I think he hit the shot to like one foot out there on 16 so he was just uh big the entire time just out there like yeah nice shot to five feet I hit it to like six inches I thought that that was great too what's going on Antonio thoughts on Clark feels like his minus four could have been minus six or better same thing as round one gu just making a ton of birdies iron play has been dialed in even off the te he's been hitting a lot more Fairways than usual hutter today he only gained 6 Strokes to the field Which is far from an issue it's it's better than most out there for today's rounds but he's normally gaining like two three Strokes to the field like you saw him for round one so I think that he's well within play um even at his kind of ownership and uh I can't give away too much but I do think he's a great option for tomorrow so uh a good chance I'm using him right what's going on Kim jum thoughts on phen now relatively low owned uh round one showed us what he was capable of so once again I can't give away my take on every player in the field let me get all right hopefully you can hear me my mic unplugged there so hopefully it wasn't out there for too long but what I was saying about yeah I I saw hopefully you can hear me now he um what I was saying about Tony fenale though I guess the mic unplugged it because uh it didn't want me to spill the beans on it is the fact that he showed us that he could make putts in round one is almost enough for me to get there there alone um he's normally a great ball Striker we actually haven't really seen that the first few days U maybe it's him struggling to get used to the altitude which is a bit surprising given that he's from Utah and um practices out here all the time this time of the year so he's the kind of player that I capable of figuring out and then when he does is dangerous because he showed us that he can make putts out there in round one so I think he's in play he's gonna be relatively low owns because he's like the worst score of anyone in that range and uh yeah if anyone could let me know if the mic's back that'd be great but I'm assuming that it is because uh my my mic looked like it's in over there in the mixer so we should be good what's going on Antonio was I shocked with uh X's back nine his struggles came out of nowhere I was what he finished like Plus four his last like six holes uh was a little bit uh sketchy for sure it's going to make him a lot lower on than he otherwise was going to be um because of that finishing stretch so his score he ended up at What minus two he was yeah like plus four over those last few holes if he was minus six he was going to be like 35 40% out right he was going to gobble up like all that ownership from Scotty he was even going to take away from guys like Rory that are like 22% now he's lower owned than more C he's lower owned than Rory he's lower owned than Scotty obviously up there at 28% so if you're going to play Xander I think the time is now right you like buy the dip on him I don't think he's a horrible play by any means that being said you can't play everyone up top so there's also a case where you might want to fade sander right if you're you know a little bit worried about the momentum towards the end of the round so for as much positive as you can say about it right the lower ownership now uh the end of the round was was pretty sketchy that's for sure Mike's good for you good sh sh I only thought it was out for like 10 seconds so we should be good all right let's move on to a few more plays so we talked through havland a little bit um only 16.6% owned Tommy Fleetwood is a lot of the same as Victor hland Tommy Fleetwood cannot buy a putt for his life but his ball strike in the first few rounds has been absolutely magical and just to give you guys some exact stats for how he's gone out there and performed Tommy Fleetwood round one he went out there gained 1.5 Strokes out there in approach was a slight Gainer with the putter which was huge for him honestly not something that we've seen from him for quite some time but out there today lost about two strokes with the flat stick but out there with his ta green play gained three Strokes which was uh let me sort it out there in the field it was number two in the field when it came to shots gain T green so today didn't get all of his score out of the round right he shot minus three but with the TAA Green stats if he had even shot even uh you know been a neutral out there with the flat stick that would have been a minus five round so I think that he's got some potential out there the Putter's been a problem for a few weeks so if you're not willing to buy in on Tommy Fleetwood um then don't take him right he's definitely a little bit out of form he's a more of like a gpp flyer in my opinion but he's the kind of player that if he flips the flat stick could go out there and be a nuclear score I mean he's got the T to Green play of an oar that shot minus n today and just didn't make enough putts I mean he literally he was just behind Oar and it came to shots g t to green and number two in the field out there in the category and he lost those two strokes of the flat stick so and by the way longterm Tommy Fleetwood a decent putter somebody that gains about a half a stroke putting per round out there in the PGA Tour so it's not like this guy is completely lost it's not like he's a Lucas Glover it's not like he's a Justin Thomas that really sucks out there on the greens um he's the kind of guy that usually gains on the greens is a little bit Funk lately and when he snaps out of that like I said it it's a low round he's hitting the ball maybe the best that he has this entire season and uh yeah the upside is there that's for damn sure made some profit today in Showdown your 85% of pendrith and 44 of oar is paying off in classic there you go you need dietre to go nuclear yeah you and me both I've got quite a bit of d3e exposure um I haven't taken a full look at my lineups as I was doing projections doing prop stuff so I was a little bit preoccupied couldn't really take a look at my exposure but I know D3 is going to be in a few lineups that I want have Vault up the leaderboard and let me take a look at the player pole real quick and just kind of think through it I think Cam Davis it would be a nice one if he could pop off just a little bit more a Tom hogi first shirt minus four I've got quite a bit of exposure there a seaw Kim I would like to see continue um his solid play OE batia 2 those are some of my uh choke points I would say like guys that like minus four they if they have a low round tomorrow um could get into the top 10 or even top five hitting into Sunday which is uh huge out there for your Sunday positioning so let's talk through U let's talk through a few more plays on here and by the way good out there with your lineups Phill going out there and uh making some profit uh let's run it back for today so going through a few more guys we talked through Fleetwood it's go to sahith now so sah same kind of thing he's losing Strokes putting and very surprisingly as typically he's one of the better Putters that we have out here in the PJ tour and his te the green play has been beautiful over the first few days so you'd expect a little bit of cutting regression out there for the positive out there in sath and he's only $8,100 and the ownership's only there at 10.7% so you're getting a little bit of a pivot play here compared to some of the other guys in this range and a player that has something to play for he's out there into East Lake out there next week but he's playing for starting Strokes if you can go out there have a few pop rounds maybe get into that top 10 top 15 then he could move up a few spots or maybe even an entire stroke or two out there on that start Strokes leaderboard so you know 10.7% give me a guy that's engaged that's hitting the ball well that just like Tommy Fleetwood has got to find that magic with the flat stick which you can see on vent POA he is very used to doing Jason day a player that could make East Lake if he has a solid end to his week and $7,400 and you could see sub 5% ownership out there in the larchfield GBP is the kind of flyer I'll take right all of these guys in the field that made it to this point in the year are capable of having a solid 18 holes and what I more so care about and I guess what we'll talk about now um we mentioned ownership we mentioned weather a little bit we also mentioned a little bit out there with uh and I guess I'll mention out out there with motivation out there for tomorrow a players's motivation is start to you know going to start to come into play here because there are guys that are already mathematically eliminated out there for East Lake I Believe aom's eliminated uh there's a lot of the field out graser is now eliminated mathematically out there for East Lake and those kind of players some of them will still care because they're still playing for money this week um they're playing for world ranking points they're playing for their pride some players though that are maybe more established maybe less mentally strong than some of their competitors could very well mailed in over the weekend what you get with Jason day is low ownership so he checks The Game Theory box he also gets the weather Edge because he's going off early that's why he's low owned of course they're at a plus three score and you're also getting the motivation side because if he plays a strong weekend um he could make himself um into that top 10 or top 30 I should say out there to get to East Lake so to give you an idea of where he stands at this point he's plus three but he has per data golf a 34% chance of making it to East Lake and I'm not sure exactly what he has to do to go out there and make it to the top 30 but my guess would be that he has to go out there and move up to like the top 20 which at this point would be like minus two so he's got to be out there go aggressive try and get get maybe under par after NE you know tomorrow's rounds and a player like that that I know is going to die on his shield I mean he's already the kind of guy that doesn't really quit to start with but we know he tangibly has something to play for and he's sub five% owns like give that to me um there might be other sub five centers that you can play that have played horribly the first few days um it's not so much the form that would worry me in a few cases but more so the guys that have no chance out there so just to show you what I wanted to point out let me go over here to DraftKings sort this by their chance to get to East Lake uh let me go back actually we'll do it over here on this side you can see there's quite a few that are already mathematically quote unquote in per the the model so you can see over there all those guys with a check but more so I'm going to show you the guys here at the bottom so anyone that's got like a sub 1% I'm pretty much going to call them dead to go out there and make East Lake so you can see graser's got a pretty much a 0% chance H's 0.1 dead 2% for Cole dead 5% for cam young you get the idea right they've got Fitz down there hadwin Jagger um even Cam Davis that is down there in no man's land and the whole way up until maybe Davis Thompson here at like 5% anyone from 5% down I think is within reason a fade right all of these guys are going to be low owned I will say that a lot of them are also have those early tea times because of their position on the leader board but from this 5% up Mark is where I think guys actually have a chance so Davis Thompson though he's plus six Ra's not in the best position to go out there and make it to East Lake if he has a couple low rounds you can see he still has that six% chance to make it so if you're going to play him I guess you do it for round three Showdown right if he has a bad day round four Showdown when he has a 0% chance at making East Lake is probably not the best chance or best spot I should say to go out there and play Davis Thompson you move up a little bit further you got like a seu Kim at 6.5% all these guys in that like 15 to 30% range I think are well within reason out there for Showdown and then uh anyone that's within this top 30 already right the check marks anyone that's got a really high chance I think are perfectly usable as well they're still playing for starting Strokes they're playing for money they're playing for their positioning out there at East Lake and uh that's enough to you know stay engaged over the last few days the guys he'd worry about the guy he use this n with is this bottom end of the board so I think the cut off point for me would probably be Nick Dunlop who has that 4% chance to make it to East Lake maybe you be more conservative about it you go down to Austin eot who is a t32 because I guess like if Dunlop won this thing right he's at minus three he could make it to East Lake or I think even like a second place finish so well let's let's include him with the usable options let's go from ekro down to graser out there for those sort of plays these guys I would be very uh I don't want to say like against playing but I would be very careful with using any of these players down here if you're going to do it make sure that they have something else that they're playing for for example Adam hadwin is playing to try to get into the President's Cup he's trying to impress as much as he can to go out there and be a captain's pick um so he's playing for that right maybe a cam young is playing to try to make the President's Cup team um a cam Davis same kind of thing so you know you could find some other narrative to mix in I suppose but yeah you'd be grasping at straws in my opinion at that point so that's what I'll say about that narrative uh wanted to point that out with Jason day as he saw in there he had that like 34% chance of getting there let's catch up on chat how am I feeling about e root and Ry heading into the weekend um I think eek Root's in an okay position he's even par so he's probably what is her what is it what are the odds for East Lake I think he's still got a decent chance to make East Lake he's uh yeah two 2% so not great but uh I hope he has a good weekend he's a good course fit is what I'll say about Austin NE Ro really my only thoughts on him are that he's accurate off the te he's a good ball Striker um as I mentioned those are the main two key stats that I'm looking for in players and he checks both of those boxes so I played them for main slate it's why I'm I'm hoping that he has a good weekend um outside of one really bad mistake today on hole number 16 um had a good day you were feeling uh Thompson with those missed birdies uh I wasn't tracking his rounds Phil so I'm assuming he was missing some shorties um he was hitting the ball well that's for sure I could tell that from the shots gain metrics Antonio says you've watched every shot from thala's rounds the last two tournaments because you bet him and his approach is very off he withdrew from the pr holding his wrist the shots gain metrics though Antonio say the complete opposite so it's it's an interesting conundrum I guess because if you take a look at the first two rounds you sort the field by approach he's uh towards the top half of the field so he's a 66 um shots gained approach per round over the first few days he's positive off the te he's getting his stroke there and then he's losing Two Strokes putting so that's interesting to know about the wrist being an issue but he's he's losing Two Strokes putting at least per the stats that's the issue on paper at least with the stat guys right what's going on Joseph said thanks Luke of course thanks for shop and byy Men thoughts on Jason day seems like round one was kind of fluky maybe a little bit fluky but at the same time he's a super low owned guy that you might want to get to for some leverage so I actually think he's in play and uh yeah I think he's he's a at least a flyer that you could use in large field gvps price SP is kind of shitty hope they add more people they probably will I haven't taken a peak yet but you know it'll probably look like it did for rounds one and two I would imagine Phil says did matama withdraw hurt me a bit hurt me today with Showdown but for main slate it's helpful because I didn't use him in that format so you know a little bit of give and take right you're not going to win every single withdraw situation and I'm the sort of guy that really doesn't hold it against the players uh they have a lot more to lose from a withdraw than you know you you and me out there on that sort of thing so it is what it is day is minus 105 and JT is minus 120 for their two ball I'd probably take Jason day uh JT looks broken with the putter uh I took him today for a birdie prop and he only made three despite having like three or four misses from five feet for birdie it was a it was a tough scene and he was on the ESPN plus coverage so you got to see every single miss it was real ugly too all right and the only putty made was the one they showed on the main coverage out there on whole 17 which was a slider real quick 8ot putt and he drained it of all things and was missing the the straight 5-footers the entire round next up though we got Denny McCarthy who is playing for his positioning out there at East Lake so kind of like that you know narrative that we were mentioning before he's going out there and trying to extend his season so despite him being plus one I think that's only going to give him a better tea time it's also going to keep this ownership in check out there at just 7% and the kind of player that has not been gaining a bunch of Strokes with a flat stick and is usually one of the best Putters in the world on the surface so if you're looking for somebody to get some positive putting regression go out there and gain Strokes on the greens right you'd normally expect him to do so um just ball strike it the way that he has to this point gain Strokes like you'd expect from Denny McCarthy and he could have himself a low round um sep straa $6,300 uh he's actually getting a little bit more ownership than some other guys that I'm getting to but what I like about SE or the ball striking stats uh Tia green both off and approach play in particular um have been well into the positive over the first few days and the putter which can hold him back at times um has been the problem over the first few days so you're just hoping that he can go out there and gain on the greens because if he does could go out there and shoot something like minus four minus5 so uh it's the ball striking stats that I like right I mentioned that out there with a few players and with this golf course you've noticed that the rough is getting longer and longer as the week goes on um that rain that they got is just only going to give it more um nutrients to go out there and grow um SE is $6,300 um keeping the ball in play this week being an accurate driver is I think just going to be huge over the next few days um it'll be important tomorrow and it'll be especially important out there on Sunday when there's been even more growth over there over the weekend um so $6,300 step I liked him this week because of that accuracy because of that iron play um I think for Showdown he sets up particularly well and then the last player I want to point out would be pavon down here at six grand um he's got a really good chance to make it to East Lake um regardless regardless of how he plays this week but regardless it's not a lock so he's got to go out there stay somewhat engaged over the next few days he's only six grand and the ball striking stats have not been horrible to this point of the week so he hasn't been impressive you can see the bent POA stats are also really impressive um gaining just under a stroke per round on the surface so the kind of player that I'll use to fit in a Scotty shuffler up top I think he's got some upside he's also super low on at just 4.6% and more so I'm just looking for guys that you know are going to give a damn down here I mentioned hadwin having that President cup stuff so maybe he's going to be engaged um pavon though because he's you know pretty much into East Lake right he's just playing for his starting Strokes is also a player that is going to Care over the next two rounds so you say that about him um Cam Davis as I mentioned he's got a lower chance though and some of the other players down here but straa is playing for his playoff life a uh Fitzy is out of it so he's one of the guys I'd be worried about um same thing with graser right he was towards the bottom of that list but like a McIntyre is playing for his playoff positioning like these are the kind of guys that I think um should be this towards the top of your consideration so let's catch up on chat see what's going on down there we'll build a lineup together as well for this lineup construction segment and uh get this thing rolling and by the way if you haven't already smashed that like button first off what are you guys waiting for also subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any of the content to come including a round four live stream which we'll be doing out there for Sunday's action and of course the rest of the playoffs and out there during the fall swing on top of that we've got football season coming too so if you are a big Showdown player big main sleep player out there on DraftKings football um we're going to have you covered for that as well so make sure to sub up if you guys haven't already and uh we'll get after it yeah screw JT as Hamza said in a little bit more colorful language it missed out on 1K because of them yeah dude uh the putting was crazy bro uh definitely didn't seem locked in I think that's a Fair take and that's unfortunately been like the trend lately he just hasn't made anything going on Kim said would I be able to go through some matchups yes so kind of like I did the last live stream just remind me towards the end I'll try to remind myself we'll do it after props Antonia says thoughts on homo birdies 4 and a half at plus 130 so we'll talk about those kind of things but yeah the birdie average was like four and a half per round today uh we're going to talk about the exact average later but somebody like H that has nothing to lose he's just going to be aggressive as hell maybe the plus 130 is a good idea especially because he's got an early tea time right it'll be pretty receptive out there I don't know if it's the worst idea hate to Brea Antonio but h's not getting five birdies yeah maybe not the best play right there're probably better people you can get at plus 130 I would say but H is going to do the like no give a attitude right he has nothing to lose he's not making East Lake he just has to play golf the next next few days and uh I would imagine he's just going to take aame at every single pen at least that's what I would do um what can we watch with you on uh on Sunday um I can't do like a live stream of the golf I could do like a watch through or something like that um I've could consider doing it especially for like a Sunday sweat if I have somebody in contention um because uh of course I put out my betting card right so a lot of people tail it so we can do a little bit of a community sweat if we have that kind of thing happen um let's see what happens with round three coms up if we end up getting like a bear uh Klay maybe Clark up there in like the final group we might have to consider it be fun to do I don't know how many people would tune in I'm sure uh quite a few of you probably would um but we could sweat that out and uh have a good time with it for sure all right let's make a lineup together so that's right I thought we had any uh I thought we had a few more plays to talk through but that was it out there for the plays let's hop over the DraftKings now and build a lineup so what we're going to do here is just talk through the thought process when going out there and actually clicking players um because making a player pool is great right knowing what to look for on players um create your player pool is one part of the process the other aspect is actually going out there and finding the right combinations um building lineups incorporating salary considering lineup construction Game Theory product ownership um all those different things that we could look at when building lineups it's uh probably the harder end of the spectrum I would say building my player pool um is probably about a third of the time I spend on building my lineups and the other twoth thirds is actually going out there in executing on that player pole um there's maybe different groups that you want to set with building lineups especially like round four Showdown you want to make sure that you have enough guys towards the top end of the board um in lineups like you might want to force in like two three guys that are starting in like the top five top 10 out there in a Sunday Showdown those kind of things are what I spend most of my time on so um let's you know take some time here to build a few lineups talk through some of the things that I'm thinking about when building lineups um to give you some insight on maybe what to consider yourself so first off when I'm building a lineup uh you want to consider what kind of contest you're entering and uh for the sake of these this will be most of my exposure out there for tomorrow would be for a large field GBP so a big 150 Max a big you know $5 big $25 um out here in the case of Showdown um where I'm either going out there entering like 50 to maybe 75 lineups um tomorrow it'll be about 50 lineups I go out there and enter so out there in that kind of build I'm trying to mix in guys um that are low owned right I mean those kind of contests is this the one right here yeah this is the big $25 right here um you're trying to beat about 10,000 other people which isn't as bad it's like a 30 to 75,000 entry GBP but uh this is still substantially harder to take down than a single entry and uh even with 50 lineups right I'm going to have a lot of bullets to work with um it's not the full 150 that's some other players are going to have so I've got to keep things pretty tight right I can't completely just disperse by player pool like I would for a 150 Max where I think for this week I had like 26 27 guys on my player pole out there for main slate I think my Showdown exposure was closer to like 22 23 players so if that's the kind of boat that you're in right if you're not like 150 maxing this contest or you're entering large field gpps you should probably be um condensing your pull a little bit compared to what you're doing in 150 Maxes um that's something that I'm doing myself and in these kind of contests as I was saying like if you're entering these kind of contests condense your poll if you're not 150 maxing and then also take stands against the field with at least three maybe even four spots in these lineups you should be taking guys that are sub 10 maybe even sell maybe 12% would be a cutoff line for those three four players you could have one two pieces that can be a little bit higher owned and as I said before there is a world where you just jam it six guys that are starting early to remind you guys of why that's a thing if you take a look at the forecast for Castle Pines early in the day it looks relatively calm but then as the day goes on you can see that the wind gust and the sustained winds get more significant and the one thing that we're going to get is the golf course drying out as the day goes on so early on I think it'll still be pretty receptive with that rain that they got Thursday evening but by the time we get to the afternoon it really could get firmer so if it's firmer and you have the higher wins it's why I think jamming in some early starters which will coincidentally be lower owned is such a good idea so let's show you what that would look like so let's start off with uh a leverage option out there with let's use Rory M up top who's a little bit of a step down in ownership from somebody like a Scotty shuffler second man in I'm going to throw in a Windam Clark who is getting some ownership but uh you'll see what I'm taking with our last four spots in a large field gpp I'm not going to be shy at all to just take pivots for the last four spots in this kind of lineup so you could throw in a JT if you wanted to um has I guess what is his what's his chance for East Lake I know it wasn't very significant but let's uh let's least double check on that so GT has actually he's got an 89% chance of making the playoffs so he still has a really good chance at making it but he's playing for positioning so um I still think he's in play for gpps I thought it was closer to like 40 50% so um was still going to be in play but I thought it was a little bit closer to 50/50 even though he has a really good chance of making it he still wants to in theory maybe get to minus one right minus at that starting score and if he's going to make that kind of Dent and actually get another stroke or two out there at East Lake I mean he's got to shoot like minus 8us 9 the next few days right he's got to go from plus four try and somehow get into that top 10 top 25 which is probably going to be that minus four minus5 score so I like the I like the incentive for him to go out there and try and get after it a little bit um so you could use him as a real low owned option out there at the 8K range um here in the 7ks let's throw in a Davis Thompson who's going to be super low owned let's throw in a Jason day and then even for my last man in here I don't think that Camy young is my favorite play just because he's not making it to East Lake so maybe you use a Shane Lowry who let me just double check on his chances yeah he's uh yeah he's already into East likee there at the check mark these sort of players that we know are going to have in s of to try and play well we're even leaving $400 on the table and with everyone but these top two players we've got sub 10% ownership um that's going to be absolutely beautiful out there in our Showdown lineup so we've got all the leverage that we've need uh the $400 is pretty much going to guarantee that we don't duplicate ourselves uh maybe not now right that I'm posting this or or showing this there in the live stream but uh you get the point there right in theory this kind of lineup with that much leverage with that salary on the table um would be very unlikely to be duplicated out there in the leville GBP so that's the kind of lineup that I'd be getting to in my exposure and on a week like this where there's only 49 players uh a lot of times for round three four Showdown when there's like 65 to 70 players that we're using um I'll start to maybe leave salary on the table just so you're not always landing on the same few players as your last man in um if you do that by the way it just gives you different combinations compared to the masses that are almost always going to spend all $50,000 um so just by doing that alone it gives you a much lower chance of going out there and duplicating yourself um but in this kind of slate where there's only 49 players right you had to Hideki withdraw so it goes from 50 to 49 um it's even more so the case you're going to have a much higher chance of having duplication so the way to avoid that is to go out there and maybe leave some salary on the table just give yourself a little bit of extra cushion when it comes to duplicating um because on a week like this you're going to see a lot more dupes if you guys uh saw the ownership report out there for the main slate there were probably a lot more dupes than what you're used to seeing and uh that was likely the main culprit for it is day and Denny a foolish combo in single entry I don't know if I would go that low owned at least with Jason day in a single entry I think that Denny is totally a fine play out there in single entry um he'll be low owned I think he's got some upside because he's hitting the ball at least half well the first few days Jason day though is you know he's going to be unowned it'll probably be like three two% owned out there in a single entury but you're taking a real shot is all I'll say on it he's he's somebody that could get there you saw it around you know you've seen him have decent rounds lately um the form by the way heading into this F he's gaining over a stroke per round to the field over his last 12 measured rounds so that's not completely on him out there um I don't think he's completely out of play singu entry might be at least for me slightly uncomfortable but if you're okay with being uncomfortable you can play them that's for sure who is my favorite Canadian for tomorrow um last time pendrith was in contention he his pants yeah he's not my favorite play I'd say out there with Taylor pendri my favorite at least part of the shots gain metrics would have to be Cory Connor's um he is hitting the ball beautifully over the first few rounds did Ho out for Eagle today um which of course boosted the shots gained approach a little bit but I would say Adam hadwin right he's playing for his positioning uh over there in Montreal heavily over the next few weeks I'd say him without sharing too much what are some of the favorite rules using the optimizer yeah good good question yeah I'll share so I'll probably do 498 K room just to give you like the max salary aspect I'll probably do 498 in my gpp lineups I'll just take it down $200 that'll eliminate probably like half the duplication chance out there with just that alone and uh it's not like you're doing anything crazy leaving $200 on the table every lineup so that would be the main thing that I would do who else I at least for tomorrow I'm not going to have that much that I do because I have a very contrarian pull I have some pieces of chalk up top but down in the 67k range outside of like sep he's like 12% I think I have a few other guys that are like 10 to 12% owns in the 7K range outside of those guys I don't have any quote-unquote chalk out there in my lineups so I don't really have to set rolls for this slate what I'll normally do especially like for Sunday Showdown is I'll set a roll to make sure I have enough guys towards the top end of the board so I'll put all the guys starting in the top 10 top 15 out there in a group and I'll say I want at least like three guys from this group so that's something I'll do on Sundays out there for like a normal Showdown slate if I want to make sure that I'm trying to take a few early starters for some leverage sometimes I'll put all the loow guys out there in a group and I'll say like I want at least two guys from that group so that's something that I'll do like for a SL like this um I would want at least probably three early starters I would say early to mid starters maybe you make a group for and you say like I want at least three guys from this group out there in every single lineup um if not four out there in every lineup uh just because right it looks like it's going to be more receptive and lower winds out there in the morning um I would say you want to lean into that quite a bit so maybe even make it 4 amm guys out there in every single lineup but the way I'd do that is i' just split tea times down in half and I'd say maybe at least three four guys out there from the first half you really like hadwin yeah me too I think he's a I think he's a good low- owned option what's going on he said see any big dogs worth bidding outright so I haven't seen the board quite yet but let me take a look I'll do this real quick I uh I'm going to be partial to the ones that I bet outright of course but let me see what the current odds are as much as I want Oar Klay or uh Windom Clark to win let's see what the best like actual live number is so looking at the board Bo no chalk with an Adam Scott Oar uh both of those would be a pretty silly bets at this point you're looking for guys that have legitimate upside to like have nuclear rounds if you haven't gone to the Windam train yet 40 to one I think is within reason uh he's one of the few guys I could actually see having that kind of run over the next few days um Rory's 50 to one now he's a minus three so he's got a lot of work to do but I guess you never know Scotty is 50 to one but he's starting at minus one so he's got he's got a ton of room to make up uh that would probably require Adam Scott to come back to the field but I I guess you never know my favorites probably Windom at 40 that's probably it's I don't know if it's the best number right I'd have to run my win Equity C but it's at least within reason I would say for him to go out there and win that's probably it I'd probably go Wy you'll be at Castle Pines tomorrow let me know if you want to get any info yes so when you come back to the live stream tomorrow night Hef just let me know if anyone hit the ball particularly well or the flip side right wasn't hitting it very well um and then I guess whether the greens were firming up just let me know just those two things if you notice anything with a player then uh maybe the green firmness is the one thing and uh have fun out there dude should be a should be a great day of golf and uh enjoy it it's always a great time to be onsite at an event which uh next week will'll be out there at East Lake so it'll be a lot of fun it's going on Antonio is Fitz too broke broken to bets oh and like a head to-head he also he's not making it to East Lake so that's a that's a pretty bad scene there too I don't know if he's broken but I don't like the motivation aspect maybe I'm not talking about btia for a reason but what are my thoughts on him uh yeah we we'll say that I'm not talking about him for a reason but he is playing particularly well I mean approach play has been pretty solid he's minus four I bet him this week right for top five top 10 I played him in a bunch of lineups so I don't know if I need to get a bunch of exposure tomorrow right to overload myself at this point but you know I have I have nothing bad to say about batia I think he's doing what we were hoping he would right over the first few days uh what what is he at this point like T10 over the first few rounds just keep doing your thing o Shay go out there make it to East Lake uh you can see he's actually already a green check mark so I guess he doesn't have to worry about that all that much but uh yeah go out there earn yourself an extra stroke or two that'd be great for the kid and hopefully he sees the incentive in going for that because uh it'd be good for our bets and for my main slate lineups this week it's a circle back to props if you guys have any questions with DFS do not be shy to go ahead and throw those down in chat U of course if you're just here for DFS we still appreciate you guys stopping by the live stream just go ahead make sure you smash the like button before you guys hop on out of here and uh subscribe so you don't miss any of the content to come best of luck with your lineups hopefully you take down a gpp or to make make your boy proud and uh have yourself a day so have yourself Friday night best of luck out there tomorrow and uh let's get after it but in terms of our prop stuff let's go through some of the stat averages here in a second and uh then talk through some props so I'm assuming that Underdog posted a full board um they had some stroke stuff I'm not sure if they had birdies posted so at least they have them posted now if they didn't have them on there before and then yeah it looks like prize picks is the bit again not let just look at the projection so yeah we'll start with Underdog then hopefully we can get price picks to cooperate over here and actually let us load the board let's see last time I was just patient with it and it worked so we'll see maybe when we come back that'll be working there let's talk through these stat averages so in terms of the scoring average right they they all pretty much improved even more than what I was expecting I thought it'd play at least a stroke of depart maybe a stroke and a half um scoring average is actually an entire Two Strokes under so you can see there right scoring average is just marginally over 70 per round birdie average I thought was going to be at least four per round maybe 4.25 um that right just a little bit better than expected as well so bog average same thing where was only 2.32 per round so the soft Golf Course the easy pin setup that we did point out on live stream um had a massive effect out there on the scoring and though we haven't seen the pin setup out there for moving day most times it's the easiest setup of the week so you imagine with a little bit firmer greens that conditions will get slightly harder but the moving day pins are at least going to be similarly easy to what we had out here in round two so scoring average I'd put in the minus one to minus one and a half range bird average in that four to four and a half range I do think that there's a chance it goes down a little bit mogy average probably two and a half per round um maybe even just a little bit more than that I would say uh as some moving day pins can be tricky um out there to safe par if you miss um Fairways I would say it would go down a little bit with the course getting a little bit more dry um rounds one for reference it was 9.7 per round so you know maybe it goes down to 9.9 or 9. like eight out there for an average but I don't think it's going to go down like anything drastically um green regulation average it was about 12.2 sorry 12.4 out there in round one it was 12.9 today so once again maybe you split the difference between round one and round two so it's like 12.6 12.7 out there for round three um that's what I would expect so like I said it's going to get a little bit more dry one day removed from that Thursday rain but I don't think it's going to be as firm and fast or as difficult as what we had out there for Thursday so let's talk through a few props so as I said we've got this Underdog board um I do want to bring up DraftKings and FanDuel and Caesars so that we can do a little bit of line shopping if they have anything posted and uh find some value so what I'm thinking for the next round is that some overs on birdies are ideal especially like for some of my Elite tier players I'm thinking some four and a halfs might not be the worst idea and then I do want to see what they have the books at least the books have the odds at uh I don't know if DraftKings is gonna have us looks like yeah DraftKings hasn't posted let's see if FanDuel has and I'll share my screen so you guys can see what I'm looking at not just my face at least my forehead here I guess with my mic too high Let's uh bring up the rest of the odds we got rounds score posted doesn't look like we have birdie props quite yet um maybe you have them down in chat Antonio I know that you said for some reason showing up for you and not me sometimes so if they have birdie props on FanDuel if you could let me know what like a Klay would be at um maybe an oar perhaps like a Windam Clark would be at for birdies because uh those are guys I'd potentially be looking for xanders at 68 A2 wow that's wild minus 145 for Tommy Fleetwood at 70 and A2 um McIntyre was Juiced a little bit over before it refreshed for some reason um kle is at 69 a half is Juiced a little bit over so probably around a 70 projection I say Scotty is close to even money at 68 and a half I'm just pointing out some of the more notable players um lug is Juiced well under 70 and a half so he's around a 70 projection um Rory is slightly Juiced over 69 and a half just good data points to have in mind I was looking at this before so they do have Rory at like 69 and a half I know that one off the top of my head um this Scotty under 69 might not be the worst idea he's the sort of player that um he's going to be starting towards like the mid-end of tea times if not towards like the beginning half because he's only minus one so you can see here at 10:55 a um eastern time tea time which means he's going off at 8:55 local that's like a perfect tea time out there for tomorrow and at 69 Strokes minus three would be him tying the field average if I think the scoring average is going to be like one and a half under par this means that him like gaining two and a half three Strokes to the field would be enough to go out there and cover this and you know most players I probably wouldn't be comfortable doing this with but it's Scotty shuffler we've got 0. five value compared to the sports book line um let's see if we can get prize picks to work so let me uh I guess reload the tab bring it up in a different a different browser and then bring it over uh yeah I don't know what's going on with prize picks not letting me see the board but I do want to see where they have Scotty I'm assuming maybe 68 and a half Strokes if I had to guess that's probably where they have them but uh I'd love to have confirmation on that but for whatever reason prize pick has no interest in letting me see the board unless they are right now oh there we go now it's working let's see where they have Scotty at if they have a board posted so Scotty shuffler is at 68 and a half okay just like expected so 0 five line value compared to prize picks as well um and over there on Caesars um let's look at FanDuel right we didn't look through this so Scotty is also about even money at 68 and a half so yeah we we'll put that in the shopping cart not 100% sure we're going to take it but that was one of my first few leans also maybe a fade of Adam Scott could be in play so I just want to see where they have as odds so he's at 71 a half over here on FanDuel he is Juiced 140 under so maybe closer to like a 71 projection but that is still higher than the 70 and a half mark So if we needed a fade I guess he could be in consideration uh leader playing with some pressure uh he's normally pretty inaccurate off the team he's been hitting a lot of Fairways this week so that's why he's playing so well but I think that could come back to get him at some point let's see what else we've got my cat wants in here but she's she's going to crash the stream if she comes in I'll probably knock something over so let's uh let's not do that okay I like these two but I I want to try and make this like a three or fourman card so the best way to do this is not just like to try and blindly find the players that you want to use is to try and find guys that are hitting the ball well right and that you think you might be able to find a decent line on so I think Oar has proven to us that he's capable of just making birdie and bunches so if we're going to take somebody for an over on birdies I don't hate the idea at all of taking like an over four and a half um I think that Moving Day pins are going to help them make you know at least a respectable amount of birdies right probably around like at least 4.25 per round and uh if that's the case somebody that's made at least seven birdies the first two rounds uh is the exact kind of guy I'll try and get to for an over at four and a half so let's mix him in there maybe even one more Fade to try and make this like a four-man slip normally we don't do this right normally it's just a Twan but for the sake of the live stream let's go for the bigger card this time change up the juju a little bit try and go for a little bit of a bigger payoff like why not we can ensure it still but let's go for at least a few more legs what else do we have so I'm looking for guys that are potential fade um so guys that are out of contention go out there and make East Lake uh could be a good spot for like an over on bogies because they're going to be hyper aggressive and they could be playing with you know a little bit more disengaged than some of their counterparts so you know I don't hate the Adam Scott Fade because he's up there in the lead but let's try and find somebody that has had a bad start that maybe doesn't even have a chance of making it to next week that we can kind of exploit so I kind of like the idea of a Camy young but this is point NX so I don't know if it's the best play Let's see zot Horus is still in Play I Believe maybe we just go with this three man right maybe we don't try and extend it too much this would be a 6X payout out there for this thre man combination so I'll say for now if you want to run this as a three man you can go for it I'm not sure if I'm going to break this up and take it as a thre man or maybe as a Twan afterwards and try and bring in another prop um heck maybe I even make this like a a four or five man prob we'll have to see after we get off live stream here but for the sake of this and trying to move on to prize pick at some point um let's go ahead and just show you these three out here for the live stream of course right just like the spreadsheets that you can find on my patreon page um where it has all my projections player pull out there every single slate if you want all my prop content all the different prop exposure and prop slips that I'm taking uh make sure to check out the patreon page as well if you all missed off on Underdog prize picks over there on that side so uh feel free to check that out so o is minus 125 over okay and then Klay is minus 140 over o I like that and then Clark is also minus 140 so in terms of these props like some of these four and a halfs like could be money for some overs right like so like kley is at four and a half uh Windam Clark is at four and a half so like maybe rather than strokes and maybe because oar's towards the top like maybe expect a little bit of regression but like a Clark where is he we passed him up right there's uh Patrick Klay I don't hate the idea a of this iser and the reason why I'm including this fade by the way is if you were to just like take two overs on birdies it'd only pay 2.5 um X or a little bit under 2.6x I should say so it's not like the worst payout in human history but it's definitely a little bit sour out there for that kind of combination so uh play it how you wish but in my opinion you should try and find the fade to mix into a few of your slips as a it'll make the payouts much better let's see so oh okay so we got these projections up let's see what else we're working with so Strokes goes the whole way up to 71 Strokes wow that's a that's a pretty tight stroke sport compared to where they had it days one and two I get it with the easier conditions also Moving Day pins so I guess I can't blame them for doing so but if I was going to take anything I think I like these birdie lines a little bit better uh especially like if you're taking a PM guy that's going to be playing in the windier conditions I I think there could be some mistakes in potentially even double bokies depending on the pin location so you see right have Windam Clark at four and a half like uh you can already see I didn't hate that play also this is Patrick kley prop over here on prize picks if you were to take it as a Twan combination so right maybe you take those other props we had in there before and then you just mix in these two birdie props over here because you can see the payout is 2.75x so yeah that's what we'll say over here on prize picks the uh Strokes board I think is pretty tight uh especially on prize picks uh they have these guys even like0 five lower than what they have over there in Underdog but they still have at least a few birdie guys posted and the payout is a lot better compared to what you get on Underdog so it's probably the best place to play those kind of plays whereas an underdog you can do like the anti-correlation with the thre man and uh get that 6X payout on the 3an which is H on a thre man you'd only get 5x over here on prize picks um so you're getting the better payout on Underdog so just again cater slips based on the slip that you're playing on um to try and get the best EV possible on your combinations let's go to pick six now and then um we'll look at a few matchups like you're being asked about before I've really got to go pee so I'm trying to do this quickly uh so you can take care of that of course so in terms of the pretty props we've got can't leay on there again Windam Clark there too so you guys know I wouldn't be against playing those two uh I think a Rory at four and a half would be a really sharp play out there at that kind of number so just to change it up a little bit take the Rory there we'll look at some of The Strokes lines as well so I don't hate the the 69 and a half either if for being frank and then what do they have for pars yeah I hate these par props but 11 and a half makes sense for most players in the field so yeah just like the other birdie props I mentioned before like I don't think these are a bad idea uh maybe you take the Rory out and then you take them for like an under 69 and a half because just for comparison what is this line over here on prize picks he's at uh I guess he's at that same number 69 and a half uh what is his line on the sports book I guess would' be like the more appropriate question here he would be at 69 and a half and he is uh Juiced a little bit towards the over honestly I don't know if I agree with that that much so yeah that in terms of value there's not much to be had on this board like actually maybe it even fade a Tommy Fleetwood but you can't even use that to make this a three-man slip right the reason why I was looking for an under on Strokes by the way is that if you have an old on slips you have to have an under to make it eligible because you can see down here right it says PGA Tour picks means you need at least one in one over and one under to go out there and make it eligible and uh yeah we have two overs on birdie so I don't know Rory is not a plus EV play so if it's not your thing maybe avoid it um sheffler was at least even money at 68 and a half so maybe he's a slightly better play uh if in terms of birdies there's no one here that I would really like for an under um fantasy points might be another way to go about this so somebody that could be right for a fade might be Tony fenal he has not hit the ball well over the first few days so it's uh a little bit sketchy whether he'll turn it around out there for round three so maybe make that your slip out there for pick six but in terms of value just because we don't have a lot of options out here for either category it makes it a little bit tough so in my opinion I think this thre man combination would be worth entering but it's not like it's one of those Mega value slates that we used to get sometimes where the odds would be drastically off compared to other sports books so that's what I'll say about that we'll go ahead and uh check on some of those matchups now that people were asking about before where' we leave off reminder for matchups yeah I got you Keegan and Scott are both four and a half and plus 130 uh the one thing I'll say is that they might be a little conservative right especially Adam Scott because he's out there in that lead I still think that they're they're decent value though after the show you're going to go back and rewatch it over again okay there you go Jack says you're trying to use your 05 token on Underdog uh what would be my favorite play to use with it so probably like a0 five birdie or I guess like a0 five stroke if they allow it to go out there and take an over but like if it's a 0. five birdie like an over on pretty much anyone's going to hit uh if you could do strokes and you do an over it'll be a guaranteed hit so a Strokes over would be the best thing you could possibly do if not probably an over on birdies be the best way to go about it gotta go good luck chat and uh you said thank you for everything of course absolutely let's uh do some of these matchups so I know we had a few questions about it um a few people on replay that would probably enjoy this but this is over here on FanDuel these are the the round head to heads let's look at the two balls because these two balls are going to be the same from book to book um I got to pee okay we're going to go through this quickly guys because I got to go to bathroom so Dave versus Thomas I've got to say that I think this is a pretty close to a queen flip so I I think minus 105 isn't enough to get me to bite on Jason day but like if he had been like plus 100 or plus 105 I probably would have bet Jason day against a Justin Thomas SEO sunj I think sunj is the rightful favorite but minus 150 is I don't want to say heavy but heavier juice than maybe I'd like to bet Klay versus Clark I think that that's a very fair matchup I think that having the Slate favor as Klay is probably appropriate uh that one's a no bet for me I I like both sides of that bet Kirk an that's a no but let's look at shley versus Davis I mean obviously sh Xander decide to bet but he's minus 340 um Adam Scott versus Keegan br it's actually a pretty even matchup if I was going to you know decide between these two players I would go Keegan Bradley main reason being is that his T to Green play has been just as good if not a little bit better than Adam Scott whereas Adam Scott has been Lux sacking it with the putter so if there's anyone that has a more sustainable skill set between those two players who are you know at the same stage of their career right similar Talent level players you know I'd rather have the ball Striker than the guy that's going out there and gaining a bunch of Strokes putting so in terms of the first bet this is probably it I I'd probably take key in minus 120 I think that's a pretty fair line on him you've got zot Taurus versus Tom hogi there um I'd rather have the Tom hogi side so at minus 110 I don't know if it's enough for me to bet it like I would hear with Keegan Bradley but it's definitely a lean over there on the Tom hooki side Burns versus melroy I think that Roy is a a decent favorite but minus 165 might actually be pretty fair odds so I would like shop that I'd go maybe on data golf they have a line shopping tool that you can use just go out there and make sure that's the best number but yeah I I think that Rory's got a a pretty good leg up on Sam Burns I would say uh Oar versus noren rightful favorite only minus 175 I I think that maybe even that one's a BET right maybe you like parlay you know roria then Oar out there in these two balls I'm not sure if every book is going to allow that but something I would at least try to do out there on Hard Rock bet it's like at straa hlin that's a no bet for me Sheffer hadwin minus 400 I'm not eating that that's for damn sure McCarthy horel actually kind of like the McCarthy side there so plus 110 I would probably bet Denny McCarthy pendrith versus Connors actually might even bet uh Taylor pendrith there um just because I think he's doing it more sustainably right like Cory Connor looks like he's striping it with the irons but part of it is because he had a whole out eagal today um Harmon we already talked about Harmon actually Harmon Henley I think is a no bet um Young bazine Who yeah that's a no bet because these guys are out of contention um between thala ekro this is two guys that are actually in contention out there for East Lake I'd probably side towards theala because of how he's ball striking it but minus 150 is pretty tough um fenale McIntyre it's a no bet I believe I think the minus 150 is pretty appropriate um yeah towards the bottom end of the board see anything really stick out no not that last U maybe Eric Cole versus Jagger um Eric Cole's been really hitting the ball well the first two days so I'm not against that as a bit I'm trying to find ones that are closer to even money because I I hate taking this like minus 170 to minus 200 juice um between Lowry dietry I don't hate Lowry Lowry has a lot more to play for than dri at this point pavon Vitz Patrick I love pavon at plus money actually um Fitzy right can't make it to E like whereas pavon can so I think that you know could be something that you can exploit out there in that two ball um H versus Thompson same thing hoba has no chance versus Thompson can maybe Max hoba is a little bit too aggressive out there tomorrow and makes a few mistakes McIntyre feno versus Tony uh that's probably no bet as I said yeah that's probably it for the two balls so my favorites are probably like these it's not like I'd bet a bunch on them but like these ones where it's like pavon versus Fitz and like the plus money is on the guy that is actually playing for something that's the spot I want to get to so like even this Lowry versus Detro like I think there's a pretty good discrepancy there um those would probably my favorite two balls out there for the the next round all righty guys that's all I've got for the live stream hopefully you feel a little bit more prepared for all of your exposure tomorrow I'll catch up on live chat before we hop in out of here but go ahead smash that like button if you guys haven't already and subscribe so you don't miss any of the content and stop on by out there for the Sunday stream out there tomorrow night but let's see what we're doing any questions you meant to say what would I say to to pair with the 0. five play so uh yeah my favorite play would probably be the Windam Clark over four and a half birdies um that's the one that I would use over there in underdog if that's still available Jack um and hopefully answers your question but uh yeah like I said that's all I've got looks like we're caught up on chat we're good to go so uh like I said go out there have yourself a day out there for Saturday and uh have a great Friday evening as well it should be a fun one uh great scoring likely expected right something around like maybe one and a half under par and I think someone's gonna keep take it deep right maybe it's a Scotty that shoots like 78 under par uh maybe it's a Rory that shoots like seven eight under I think you're going to see an Elite tier player go out there and be at full flight so hopefully it's a few guys that we played in our Showdown lineups that we can use for some props and uh hopefully we can run good out there for tomorrow's action so I appreciate your support here guys best of luck as I said before and uh I'll catch you guys tomorrow night