Tour Championship Round 3 DFS Preview + Live chat: Draftkings Showdown, Underdog + Prize Picks Props

e e e e e [Music] [Music] [Music] welcome on go fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our DFS impr live stream out here for round three Moving Day at the Tour Championship going to break down what to expect from the weather conditions tomorrow a look at the DFS side of things and how I'm attacking that slate in towards the end the underdog and prize pick Sports to bring you guys some value out there for Saturday's action so first off hopefully you're having a fantastic friday whether you've got some plans out there with friends and whatnot and are ready to talk some golf out there for Saturday so whether you're watching this live we already one of the you know 14 people here early go ahead smash that like button or if you're a part of the replay crew go ahead and smash the like button as well as we get more and more people in here let's go ahead and pump those numbers up and go out there and take advantage with our lineups so as per usual going to start it off with look at the golf course and conditions what I saw out there in the golf course at today then afterwards we'll talk through The Showdown side some of my top plays what I'm looking for in players out there for Saturday and then towards the end is when we're going to talk about all of that prop stuff so if you're new here just going tohe going out there giving you a little you know schedule of events to come and uh as you said as I said before go out there and hopefully you're having a fantastic friday it started off with our presenting sponsor of this live stream which of course are friends over there with the shipit nation shipit nation is a great source for all your needs with DFS if it's not just golf that you're going out there and playing I know a lot of you out there probably playing fantasy football in a few weeks they've got you covered from that side of things but not only just football Golf out there but sports like hockey NBA MMA NASCAR DFS out there on website that's more of an all-encompassing sort of membership but you're not going to get price gouged for all that they offer right they give you all those different sports projections modeling uh process based tips for all those different sort of sports and you're not going to pay you know A1 thousand out there for every single sport right it's not like those other sites out there if you were getting all that much value you'd be paying literally thousands of dollars per month uh it's much more reasonable over there with the ship it nation and part of the reason why we partnered with them over here on the channel so use code Luke 10 if you guys are signing up over there as you will get a discount off any membership and uh help support the channel as well so make sure to check them out if you guys haven't already um definitely a great site for all those DFS needs we talk about the golf course here in a second we got Metro down there says evening thanks for the props of course Metro hopefully you're having a fantastic night what's going on Jason sunjay is going to make his move tomorrow with a pinseeker I sure hope so because I'm right there with you what's going on BART what's going on Bo hopefully you guys are having a good one I've got some water here so another really hot one out there it was just it felt like an air fryer out there the entire day so going to keep it a little bit chill here just kind of recuperate I took a shower a little nap actually during the the weather delays to to try and get a little bit back to normal sea because uh we definitely got to get some extra water in the system over the next few days it's uh only going to be hotter out there on Saturday and Sunday so no crowning Cokes quite yet going to have a few dinner or dinner reservations not till 10: tonight so I have a little bit more time with you guys out here in the live stream but for now it's water I got to kind of recuperate a little bit and it was only water out there in the course today too it's just too hot to have any sort of uh alcoholic beverages because if you did you'd pretty much be dying out there how do I VI a guy like Klay who's been a really bad tea degree but putted lights out so I'll Circle back to that when we get to DFS but yeah that's a tough one right I would say uh it's tough to play them with confidence but they definitely have some potential's going on Jam Miz you're sure hope LV got on the putting green um same thing with sunre I agree with you dude there's a few guys that have been bleeding Strokes on the greens that every week end up turning it around I mean Allah um Tommy Fleetwood last week so you might want to take a shot on them dude I'm not going to tell you how to play your lineups but maybe you should let's talk through what we saw today which the golf course in general was a little bit easier I would say than what I was expecting I thought it'd be like two under par per scoring average of course day one it was about two and a half under today it split the difference right played about 2.25 under so it wasn't like it was drastically off expectations and they started to move back some of those Par 3 T boxes so you saw it with whole 15 played a little bit longer um still not difficult at about 170 yards but rather than 130 like you saw for whole uh round one uh round one they uh moved it back right they made it a little bit more reasonable out there for uh round to and moving day you might see them still move up some t- boxes it's a going to be a score ball round or at least normally moving day is one of the more scorable rounds that we get at these tour events so I don't think they're going to make it especially difficult out there for round three but round four you're probably going to see a lot of what we saw for today in fact they might even make it the full 215 yards there hole number 15 hole number nine played I believe it was 220 yards out there for today's round which uh played as one of the more difficult holes out there in the golf course that can play 260 you can see up there right whole n is 260 yards if they play it from its full distance you might see that Sunday probably not out there for tomorrow so that's what I'd say about the golf course setup is that in terms of scoring it'll probably be in this like same sort of range where it might be like two and a quarter under par maybe even slightly easier like you saw out there for round one um I just I'm expecting some moving day pins which usually pretty soft for the most part and on some of the more scorable holes like like the par FS uh they might make 17 driveable for example there's been talk of that by the tour the entire week they're going to go out there and do that the best day to do it is out there and moving day uh you saw that with hole number eight today right they moved that up and made it drivable so uh I think you're going to see some of that out there for moving day so the prime candidate would be 17 but maybe they do it with eight again maybe both holes end up getting moved up out there but it's uh the sort of day where they normally Embrace that scoring aspect so compared today 1 and two I guess that's the main thing to keep an eye on in terms of the weather it looks pretty flat just like Days 1 and two and because there's only 30 players just as I mentioned out there for Showdown yesterday there's not going to be much of an edge to go out there and take advantage of especially when the weather from you can see about um they're starting about 11 local time over here and they're finishing around 5 maybe 600 pm. if there's not going to be a delay you can see that the wind is between 2 to 6 miles hour of sustained wind the entire time right from 11 the whole way till 5 and six and there's not like a defined wave to go out there and take an advantage on either right if you're starting at 11 you're finishing at like three or four you can see the last two three hours of your play are going to be played in maybe slightly windier conditions and then if you're starting later it's the same thing right you're playing in pretty much the same weather as the guys going off earlier so just like I said out there for round two Showdown I think if you're playing a weather Edge out there for tomorrow you're probably overthinking things maybe the first few groups off get a slight Advantage when you compare them to the last few groups off but a majority of the field right you're not comparing the extreme on one side to the extreme and other right A lot of times you'd be comparing somebody teeing off at let's say like noon as opposed to somebody teeing off at like 12:30 p.m. right that like 30 minute discrepancy and in those kind of situations it makes little to no difference now I guess if you were trying to break a 50/50 and you did have somebody that was truly at one end of the spectrum and than somebody that's maybe going off super super late as opposed to the other guy going off super early maybe you could in theory side towards the guy going off a little bit earlier but as I said I think that would be getting a little bit too cute and outside of those very specific sort of like tiebreaker scenarios I don't see you know a reason to be considering the weather out there for round three so that's what I'll say about the Slate it's more so going to be about your game theory um lineup construction right catering that towards the kind of contest that you're entering that you want to worry about out there for your Saturday Showdown lineup so we'll talk about that we'll talk about a few players you can get to for some leverage that I want to point out in this video and then the lineup construction segment just as it was for round two is going to be especially important I think in gbps I think leaving salary on the table is almost a must out there in like the big five or big $25 and I think if you're going out there playing cash or single entries you don't have to go as crazy but you still want to play that leverage game out there in those kind of formats so uh maybe not cash more so I mean like single entries and playing that leverage let's go ahead bring up our DFS sheet and uh start to talk about the Slate a little bit so we're going to go through our highlighted plays you can see oar is towards the top so I know somebody already mentioned his uh terrible putting performance today you guys know I'm a [ __ ] for some putting regression so we'll talk about that one here in a minute but uh let's catch up on chat shall we it's too bad they aren't going to play 15 from the back's it'd be a lot of fun and yeah I doubt that they're going to do it like I said in my like course breakdown because the green is just way too firm for it if in theory I think there's one pin location that they could probably do it with Kim it' have to be like a middle left pin which is close to that little runoff area that you have but at least if they do that there's enough room with your long irons and I guess they could like in theory have the guys go for it but it'd be a absolute Carnage if they played it from the back te so yeah I think the 170 saw today was probably as long as it's going to play all week but uh it would be a lot of fun that's for sure and I don't know it's playing easy enough the golf course where I guess you could throw in one really difficult hole and it wouldn't make them that mad so let's cross our fingers maybe we'll see it on one of the last two days third round whole locations are up that is sweet and uh good to know Jam is I'll take a look at it when we get to prop stuff let's talk about the DFS side of things right now so and in terms of DFS as I mentioned this is much more of a game theory slate and in terms of the like the mega chock up top I guess I'll just point that out right now so I've got Scotty at over 40% again I've also get Xander over the 30% Mark so in terms of your highest own plays it is those two players up top was the same thing for main Sate was the same thing for round two Showdown and uh yeah round three nothing has changed given how they've played over the first few days also got Colin morawa catching a lot of steam minus 17 with how he's played the first two rounds you would probably have expected that but also guys like a Windam Clerk and Adam Scott guarding a little bit more ownership than you might expect um saala went out there as chalk and smashed for round two Showdown which uh was not great as I did not have him in lineups but it is going to make him an extremely popular play out there for round three Showdown so you know as was the case for round two where it's tough to go out there and back up a low round some of these guys that have gone out there and done it for the first two rounds are in theory right in an even harder position to go out there and even tougher position I should say they go out there and back it up out there for round three and what you're getting with the ownership is a lot of those players are the ones that I mentioned as the mega chock across the board right saw hith in that 7K range guys like Adam Scott down there in that top end of the sevens um so on so forth 8K chalk 9k chalk 10K chalk are all the guys that are like binus 12 or better so what you can do out there in your round three Showdown lineups is you don't have to fade every single player that I just mentioned but if you fade three four maybe even five of those players that I just talked about that's an easy way to just cross off a massive portion of the player pole because a lot of you casual players people that maybe aren't as too into to golf this week you know no cut aspect it's playoff event a little bit you know fluky for some so maybe they're not watching or as tuned in as some of the more hardcore fans like you know me and you out here watching this on a Friday afternoon um whatever the case may be though those sort of players are the ones that you can leverage against rather easily because the fact of the matter is there are no placement points in play out here for round three Showdown and it's not like everyone has an equal chance to succeed uh the guys that have form that stands for something that matters that's why you know the two ball matchups the projections of like Underdog and prize picks right A lot of times reflect their round one and two form because that matters but it's not the end all Beall you still have to compare hit rates between different players and what you get with a lot of the ownership stuff is guys will be like double sometimes three times the ownership of guys around them and they're not going to have two three times the hit rate so the reason why a lot of people will talk about trying to fade a lot of those players is that there's guys around them almost in almost every case or not always if there's not then maybe you do play the chalk maybe they're worth playing in a few cases but in most cases there are guys around those chalkier players that you can take at the same ownership a lot of times like even half ownership or a third of the ownership that have the same if not a higher hit rate out there in gpp so we're going to talk about some of those higher upside option guys that I think have a way to go out there and get to a ceiling and I think Oar would be a perfect example of that the first few rounds has not had his best stuff but still out there in a very respectable position right shot underpar round one I believe it was three underpar out there for today but he bled Strokes with the putter the first two rounds in fact I believe he's lost five Strokes putting the first two days which is one of his worst starts to a tournament out there with the flat stick and he's normally one of the better Putters out there on tour in fact you can see on be grass usually gains about a half a stroke putting out there per round so if there's anyone that is kind of due for some putting regression it's him and outside of that he's been playing fantastic golf he was I believe number one in shots gained off the T today at least the last time that I checked he was top three out there with a shots gained approach I believe had over shots uh three shots gained approach out there at one point um so obviously was dialed in out there with the ball striking and if you can go out there and even putt to a neutral out there with the Putter and I'm not even talking about gaining two three Strokes of the putter he does that book it right it's like a 9 underpar round out there for OAR but if he's even like a neutral with the flat stick that's minus six today right that's one of the better rounds of the entire day um let alone the upside if he goes out there and finds a way to get a few putts to drop so that's the kind of play that I want to get to out there for round three Showdown because he's hitting the ball the same if not better than some of those chalky guys that are quote unquote playing a little bit better right now but just can't get the putts to drop into I can tell you from on watching o bear I got to see a lot of the back nine um he was just lipping out time and time again I had him for some props I had him for over four and a half birdies he had four birdies through his first 10 holes and his last eight holes he lipped out I believe on four of the last eight so half the holes right lipped out out there for birdie which uh excruciating for somebody that was live watching him and live sweating him out there for a bit but more excruciating out there for his fantasy scoring so if there's anyone do for some putts to drop and I hate to say do but that's what putting regression is Right somebody to start getting back to what he typically does is lug Oar and if he does it's going to lead to a massive fantasy score so let me get a sip of water see what's going on horrible gambling day for you Hamza hate to hear that but hopefully you can bounce back is it the best you've seen moraba play for months 10 birdies is wild and uh yeah did he make 10 birdies today I didn't know was a whole 10 out there out of his 18 holes but yeah he's playing some good golf that's for damn sure and uh yeah hopefully you have a better day out there tomorrow dude it was uh a pretty average one for me I ended up up on Showdown slightly down on props but it was like down like 0 five units so I don't know can't complain on that side right the 0.5 unit days into the negative are going to happen but uh yeah hopefully you can have a better one out here for Saturday dude so starting off with L big we already mentioned that play also like hii at minus 9 so you can see I've got him at 19.9% and it's worth noting right I mentioned o bear as a potential leverage play up top yet he's still 20% own so just like round two Showdown these leverage plays that I'm talking about are not going to be as low owned as what you're hoping for in a lot of cases um we got a few sub 10 10 percenters today so that's worth noting with the ownership is that in my projections now we do have some guys that are actually sub 10% projected but a majority I think almost all of those actually are guys that are in that six and 7K range I think there's one exception to that role I think there's one 8K guy that's going to be sub 10% um when we get him I guess I'll mention who that player is going to be those guys are going to be I guess like the only pure leverage options that you could get to out there in your lineups but at the same time there still going to be like 9% owned like I think the lowest owned was like 7. like % or something like that out there with the lowest owned player on the Slate so these guys at like 20% they're still lower owned than their average player in that range but at the same time you're not going out there and taking guys that are like 5% own like we sometimes get right like sometimes on a showdown slate like we can find guys in this 8K range that are like eight and a half percent um Sunday Showdown it might be a little bit more like that when we have the placement points in play I do think that people out there are going to have to you know take those placement points like maybe up top we can get some guys that are sub 10% but round three Showdown we're probably not going to get that you agree with Luke he's too talented yeah I agree with that too and that's the case with golf like it's not it doesn't doesn't even have to be o bear like he's a talented kid he's definitely going to bounce back but even if it was somebody that was less talented like a lower tier player if you're putting below your Baseline you're bound to bounce back that's just how stats work right and when it's somebody like ly you know stud viig as some people would call him then it's even more so the case right because the kid is so talented out there so yeah he's a he's he's a good one he he's definitely good for it with the mentality too he's not the kind of guy that I think is going to pitch quit out there I'm more so worried about him at least based on his track record this year when he's out front when he has a lead out there on Sunday specifically so I uh I like him in this kind of scenario for sure so Hideki what I like about this play is as I said you know relatively low ownership but what I like $9,500 also price tag I think is very reasonable but he's kind of going under the radar right minus one the first two days um really hasn't had his fast ball out there for either round but at the same time he hasn't been drastically off in any one category so maybe that back stuff is is giving him a little bit of a fit but if he goes out there warm weather by the way I think really helps anyone that has a stiff back um I haven't had a stiff back to this point fingers crossed knock on wood whatever I got to do to make sure that doesn't end up happening anytime soon but uh what I've heard from people with stiff backs I've had uh many of like you know friends of family all complain about that um I'll say though that when it's very warm out right it it loosens it up right you've heard that with tiger with some of his surgeries um the lower back surgeries that that he had in the past so Hideki hopefully we can get him a little bit looser out there here for moving day and he can make a move up the board because the first two rounds as he said he's been way too stagnant he's been losing Strokes losing leaderboard positions over the first few days but at the same time he hasn't played horrible golf either and coming in you can see he was my number three total mono ranking number one in that recent form ranking so if you're looking for somebody that's playing some of the best golf in the field recently that then he's your guy so that's why I like a Hideki a little bit of a bounce back uh once again not playing drastically bad in anyone category which I I think gives him some sort of promise or some sort of optimism to go out there and turn it around it's not like he's like bleeding Strokes out there on off the tea bleeding Strokes out there on approach in fact if we go to his shots gained metrics over the first two rounds and uh we take the average let me uh bring up the leaderboard find him on here he's uh within a stroke into the positive or negative in every category it's uh about point4 Strokes that he's losing off the te um it's PL eight Strokes on approach so ball striking has been a little bit off right you can definitely say that for him but he's slightly gaining around the green and he's losing like 02 Strokes per round out there with the putter so um as I said not great right there's a reason why he's lost positioning since the start of the week but at the same time um that's why we're getting them at reasonable ownership out there in Showdown and why I think he has some upside out there in gpp contest Patrick L here at 9 Grand another one of these like 20 percenters that I'm playing who um you're going to get you just a little bit of Leverage up top they're not going to be those like 35 to 40 percenters like you're getting in a few cases what I like about Klay is the upside with the putter um round one he lost like three Strokes with the flat stick which was just very questionable you knew that was going to turn around in fact he went out there and gained more Strokes today with the putter than he lost out there in round one so flipped the script completely uh some that you'd expect to see from one of the best Putters out there on the PGA tour and that's what I'm expecting to see out there for Saturday and Sunday and while the ball striking today actually held him back a little bit um he left a lot to be desired out there with his off the te PL and out there on approach he's the kind of guy that's been playing a lot better golf recently in fact you take a look at the shots gain metrics over here um heading in he was the number 12 recent form ranking player if we take a look at some of the specifics let me move this out of the way so we can click at the last 12 measured rounds you see he's gaining 6 shots approach out there per round um which is uh maybe not the best out there in the field but it's one of the better numbers up there towards the top end of the board um he's the kind of guy that will take for a bounce back in that category so un liked what I saw from the putter I didn't like that out there in round one I thought that it would turn around just Unfortunately today he wasn't able to marry up that putting out there with the same kind of ball striking that he had out there for round one so he's uh kind of been a little bit all over the place a little bit of jaal and hide over Thursday and Friday but if he can marry that up right he's shown us upside across the board now at this point over the first two days if he can find a way to kind of just pick the best parts of his game over the first two days um has nuclear round potential out there and uh that's why you play out there in Showdown um you're trying to take the guys that can shoot minus 6 minus 7 or better and go out there and break the slate and the kind of guys that have that potential are the ones that can Spike across the board and you know hasn't happened the first few days but he's given us glimpses of being able to do that in every category so hopefully he can piece it all together out there for moving day next up we got Windom Clark who's actually I believe the highest owned player that I'm using out there in my exposure and the reason why I'm playing Windom he's you know got some ownership just like guys like Adam Scott um Sam Burns who I mentioned before so you know like I said you don't have to fade all those chalky players um Windam Clark is maybe that one piece of quote unquote chalk that I'm eating the reason for is that he hasn't had his best stuff over the first few days yet he's still there at minus 12 right up there in contention over the first few rounds he's uh the kind of guy that's kind of just been hanging around the last month or so um has yet to really go out there and assert himself with one of those nuclear rounds what I can tell you is that when he's raising his game like he's a very streaky player he's a he's the kind of guy that when he catches form will usually sustain it for quite some time his form lately you can see over here to the right he's the number seven ranked player in the field which I know doesn't sound like anything crazy but this is literally the best field of PGA Tour players that we have so he's the seventh ranked player recently it doesn't really have that top finish to show for it right so that shows how consistent he's been that shows just how solid his golf has been over the last month or so and uh what I really like about him at this spot is he's kind of like a sleeping giant right like he's he's been good lately but not great and what we know Windom for what he's he's known for I mean went out there one Pebble Beach on this alone is going out there for having new grounds for going out there maybe if he even starts horribly right going out there at the Olympics really rebounding over the last three days I think we're going to see a big round out of Windom soon it might not be out there tomorrow but if it is I definitely want to be there um might be Sunday might even be the next event that he plays over here in the fall if he decides to Tee It Up um probably going to be a win if it's a start over there in the fall and he has one of those days so I'm going to play him at eight grand the price tag is also very reasonable so though he's coming in with some ownership I'd rather play him than a chalky at on Scott who's lost on approach in both rounds so far I'd rather play him than a Sam Burns he's a little bit more expensive and still in that same sort of ownership range um give me somebody that I've been kind of eyeing for a while on that I think is playing some very impressive golf over the last month or so and that is coming with some ownership but I guess I just wanted to throw him in this video in this uh live stream for everyone that's joining us live here um just to show you that you can take chalk you can take a few guys that are maybe a little bit higher owned but uh don't go crazy on it and it's crazy right I'm calling him chalk and he's 25% as opposed to 20% up there with these quote unquote leverage plays towards the top but uh that's the craziness that we get on this kind of slate it's uh that that's why I don't think you have to worry about it all that much right like if the the quotquot shocks like 25 to 28% then it's probably not that big of an issue yeah so any thoughts on Rory and Fleetwood says Kim Jung I would say Rory looked a little bit better today uh the issue today was mostly the iron play just didn't hit enough irons close um at least on his back nine front nine iron play was actually fantastic for Roy Mary the putter on the front nine though he lipped out on his first like four or five holes so I would say that he's due for a few to drop so he's maybe not my favorite play out there um there are a few other guys in that range that statistically kind of stuck out to me a little bit more but at the same time the guy I mean just could not putt better without getting puzz Dro first two holes he left the putt like Point like a half an inch short or something like that it was hard to tell out there from the side but he Lally walked up and like breathed on it and they ended up both going in um hole three lipped out um hole four I believe also ended up going out there and lipping out it's it's hard to think that's going to happen again so yeah keep playing like he is I think he's going to see a better score who played too well today to go out there and fade for me it's Windam and it's kind of been how he's played the last month or so that makes me say that as in Hub should be fade because oh okay so you're saying something else actually so you're saying who should be fade because they were too good today okay and all good kep and it was a little confusing for me but you you put the second message so now we're good to go so usually what I look for in that are guys that puted way above their Baseline and I think the prime candidate it's not going to be a stud so maybe I'll give you a few of them but like the prime candidate would be Tom hogi and the reason why would say that he played too well today uh in minus three right it's not even the best kind of score just marginally better than the average actually about 75 strokes but he gained three Strokes putting in round two and lost two strokes on approach what we expect to see from Tom hogi or normally gains out there on approach he's normally an okay putter but he's not always right one of the best Putters out there in the field in round one it was the opposite he went out there he gained on approach and lost out there with the putter today right complete opposite of that so I would say that would be very surprising he probably played well above his Baseline there um so that would be a huge red flag for me but if we're taking a look at like other guys on the board Xander Schley maybe but he still gained on approach so maybe not the best example um and Adam Scott is probably my favorite option uh it' be for days one and two out there for Adam Scott so let me go ahead and actually do the average over the first two rounds Adam Scott over the first two rounds is losing 1.77 Strokes approach per round so he's lost over three and a half over the first two days and he's gaining 2.4 Strokes out there with the putter So Adam Scott he's not he's not he's not like completely immune to going out there and gaining with the putter like like he does this sometimes where he'll go out there and have good putting weeks but normally when you go out there and you're one of the best plays out there for Showdown it's because you're going out there and gaining with the irons and he hasn't done that so far so I would say that would be a red flag and somebody that's maybe playing a little bit too well and that you might want to fade all righty let's keep this thing moving so you have any more specific player questions just let me know down in the chat guys uh but we're going to keep this thing going as quickly as we can so we got Justin Thomas is the next player that I want to point out here who is once again getting some ownership so I hate to call him a leverage play and in the 7K range 20% is probably not a leverage option he's uh actually maybe a little bit higher own than the average down here but what I like with JT is that he's playing some solid golf so far this week he started at even par so he's truly minus 7 over the first two rounds and he's a $7,200 golfer he's probably a lot cheaper than what he should be um that kind of guy that helps you save a lot of salary out there in those lineups so at 20.2% you know you can get different out there with your lineup construction you can leave some salary on the table and gpps if you need to it's not the end of the world to take some ownership out here for tomorrow so you kind of just got to live with that it's so much different than what we normally talk about here in the channel we're normally in Showdown especially rounds two and three we're talking about all the leverage in the world that we can get uh it's just not going to be there out there for tomorrow Showdown slate so these last two options are about as different as you can get out there on this kind of slate um I'll point out the sub 10 percenters right now by the way Chris Kirk I've got at sub 10% ownership I've got Christian bazan Hood At sub 10% ownership as well I've got Billy horel I believe at like eight 9% ownership and then let me see if there's anyone else I think that's it I think it's just those three or four players that I pointed out uh maybe one more that ended up forgetting about mixing in there but outside of that everyone else is in that like 15 to 25% range so um you've got a few guys up top that are like 30 40% in Xander Scotty uh maybe Sam Burns Windam Clark right end up getting some extra ownership out more Caba too up there in that 9k range but down here towards the bottom guys like aaka 16% or even a pavon down here at 14.8% they're about as different as we're going to find and what I like with both of these players is that they gained a bunch of Strokes out there with their irons today and then lost Strokes with the putter uh that was the you know case out there for straa round one uh kind of the case from the last month or so out there in the PGA Tour has been okay with the irons just cannot make a putt for his life on Vera grass is a slate positive putter so there is a glimpse of Hope out there on the surface uh you've SE him have a WI out there on Bermuda grass in the past down there at the Honda Classic and with pavon he's actually somebody I faded today so I was tracking and following him out there in the golf course and he played a lot better than I think his scorecard indicated ended up going over Bogies which was nice out there for my prop today but at the same time he probably shouldn't have because he was hitting his irons beautifully he kind of got shafted on one of his t-sh shots over there on hold number seven so out there for round three after watching him today he he seems like a class act as well now we're going to playing them and supporting them out there for moving day so uh in terms of the shots gain metrics I guess I'll just find those and give them to you exactly um pavon gained two strokes out there on approach today and lost about one and a half out there with the putter so round one he gained out there with the flat stick was about a neutral out there with the approach play so hopefully he can continue that momentum with the irons try and find some of that magic with the putter that he had on Thursday because if he does that's the the recipe to go out there and have a low round so what I'm looking for in players as you could tell on here um with JT by the way he's hitting the ball well too right so I could have pointed that out but that's the case with pretty much all these options is about guys where the shots gain metrics are relatively sustainable and the kind of guys that aren't going to be Mega chalky um I'll just say it now I'm not playing Scotty I am not playing Xander shafley which might end up burning me but they're 11,000 they're $122,000 out there on The Showdown slate um so I just want to spend my money a little bit more efficiently out there in lineups into 33% golfer 33% of golfer I should say out there with Xander and a 45% of golfer out there with Scotty shuffler end up burning me I'm going to have to live with that out there in my Showdown process uh I've got to get different at some point I'm getting different by fading those two up top and then by fading guys like a a Sam Burns right I'm not going to fade all of these guys that I'm mentioning by the way but I'm going to fade the sort of players that you might want to consider fading for this week so like a Burns an Adam Scott a thala like I was mentioning before these sort of guys that are going to be at inflated ownership numbers you probably want to think about feeding most if not all of those sort of options so that's what I'll say about The Showdown slate is try and incorporate As Much Game Theory as you can because we don't have that weather Edge to lean into that uh can usually be also helpful out there on Showdown and without that we've got to go back to the fundamentals which would be you know making share and larchfield gppp that we're not duplicating ourselves making sure that we're going out there have enough leverage in our lineups to move move up those gpps and uh try and attack some ball Strikers right after round one I usually try and say pump the brakes a little bit using the shots gain metrics but after two rounds we do have a little bit of a better idea of what to expect for some players um so if you've seen some Trends over the first two days that are pretty consistent then maybe you can lean into those out there with your process as well so let me see if there's any questions on specific players if not we're going to go over to the lineup construction side and uh build a lineup or two together and it looks like we're going to questions so let me bring up DraftKings real quick and let's build a lineup here so what we're going to do here is we're going to talk through what I'm thinking about when building a lineup and yesterday by the way if you played that Scotty and then theala lineup I think that one would have done rather well out there in the larf gpp so let's try and build another uh pretty competitive lineup out here in the live stream and what we're going to do is I'm going to show you what you do for like the big $25 gpp so this would be for like one of the larger Showdown contest that you'd be entering and this is where I'd probably be considering leaving some salary on the table and the reason why I'm personally fitting guys like Xander and Scotty and the big 25 would be because I do want to leave that salary right if you're going to spend 111,000 it becomes a little bit harder to leave 500 to $1,000 on the table whereas if you're starting a little bit further down the board with a cheaper option it's a little bit easier to go out there and pull that off so I'm going to throw in an oair there I'm going to throw in a hii into the kind of lineup I'm also going to throw in a Winden Clark down here at $88,000 and then in the 7K range in fact we might even take another 8K player in this kind of build so let's throw in a can't lay at nine grand actually let's throw in a straa at $6,600 so we could go the whole way up to 6,900 for our last spot like you see up there but as I said because this is for the large field gppp and U even with a bunch of like mid to low on options here windom's got some ownership as I said before but uh the rest of these players are like average to maybe below average ownership we could you know only leave like a few hundred on the table but because this is for like the big $25 again the largest contest that we're going to have in Showdown you might want to leave a little bit more salary than like $200 $300 so this is where maybe going down to a Benny an leaving $400 uh might make a little bit of sense if you want to push the envelope a little bit more uh heck you might even want to go the whole way down there to pavon and leave $900 on the table this would this would be my recommendation because longterm you know the worst thing you can do is go out there and duplicate yourself there in gpps and because the ownership isn't as spread out as what we'd be hoping for it's just going to be really tough to go out there and pull that off so I think the other way that you could do this is you you could try and find somebody that would be Mega low owned and if you do that maybe you can actually spend all of your salary so showing you that you know what would that uh look like so let's go ahead and throw Kirk in there at $6,200 I've got him at sub 10% so now you can probably spend almost all of your salary so if you wanted to go up here and take like a Justin Thomas and this kind of lineup because you have Kirk at sub 10% I think you're going to have a better chance to get away with this kind of lineup but if this were any other week right we'd be saying that this lineup is too chalky we'd be saying that like oh one one sub 10center right isn't enough to go out there then get the leverage that you're hoping for now might this be unique sure it might be right you have a chance to go out there and make it unique if you've got that sub 10 percenter but it's usually not enough you know differentiation it's not enough leverage for most weeks out there on tour so that's why I think maybe even leaving a little bit more salary on the lineup in this kind of in leaving on the salary on the table on this kind of lineup would make more sense so like playing a Lowry at 7100 maybe even going down here and taking like a b at 6,900 is still probably even the move out with like a Chris Kirk lineup so that's what I'll say about Showdown is that in the large fi gpp you're probably going to have to get a little bit wacky with how you're building just like you have over the first few days and the rounds four showdowns probably going to be even more so the case there um ownership's going to be extremely condensed on the players at the top end of the board and unfortunately because of the placement points we're not going to be able to avoid those players out there for tomorrow slate so what we're going to have to do for round four is probably eat some of that chalk and try and find even more creative ways to go out there and get our differentiation and make sure that we're not going to duplicate ourselves with a bunch of lineups out there for Sunday so I think that Sunday is going to be an especially difficult slate to go out there and trying to find an edge but one where if you put in the work you really think creatively uh kind of like even like what you do out there for a showdown slate out there in football which I'm stoked by the way out there for Thursday's matchup h a great one to go out there and start the year and uh we're gonna have videos dropping for that I believe Monday out there on the channel out there for our first NFL video but you've got to think of the think like this slate especially tomorrow Showdown slate kind of like one of those right you've got less players to choose from you got to kind of think it through it like a script out there with your Sunday lineups it's a it's going to be a tough one but definitely one I'm going to try and take down so let's see if there's any last second questions uh if not we're going to go through some prop stuff what's going on Derek says hope you are doing well I am I appreciate that and do I like for a bounceback day he said he seemed like he has potential so I can't tip my hand too much onto whether I'm using him but I think that there is a lot of potential there as you said so if you take a look at his stat profile round two he was about neutral across the board but round one and just recently in general I mean he's been on point with his ball striking he's been gaining well over half a shook per round both off the te and on approach uh you can see round two like like I said it was like very mediocre across the board rounds one he gained with a putter but once again pretty mediocre in most of these categories I would say that he's kind of like one of those sleeping Giants he kind of reminds me of this Hideki stat profile like round one very unimpressive right round two very unimpressive but it's Hideki and Victor hland right two guys that we know are worldclass talents um guys where we wouldn't be surprised at all if they went out there and got things figured out in a hurry so those are the kind of guys that I'll play out there on Showdown um even without the best kind of form so I would would say like the stats maybe aren't the best out there for either option but uh yeah I think he's got plenty of chance to turn it around uh of course Joseph says thanks Luke and of course and best of luck out there with your lineups man that's all I've got for the DFS section though so if you just here out there for The Showdown slate I appreciate you guys stopping on by as per usual only thing I need you guys to do before you hopping out of here is go ahead and smash that like button for me but uh plenty of content here to come so we're going to talk about props over the next 15 maybe 20 minutes here on live stream and uh try and find some value on that end but uh that is it for the DFS side if you do have any questions with that you can go ahead and just let me know down in live chat but uh let's Circle this thing over there on the prop side so in terms of the stand averages as I said I actually thought it might play a little bit harder than what we saw today um most notably I thought the birdie average might go down to like four and a half per round but I also didn't know that they were going to move up hole number eight beforehand so I took a bunch of overs on birdies that was actually where I got most of my exposure for positive stand plays uh which ended up turning out really well for the most part um should have turned out even better if guys like go be sjay would have bed their birdies out there on the back nine but you can see that's why the birdie average was 4.66 per round which is a one 100th off of what it was for round one so it was a pretty much spot in line with what you had for Thursday a bogey average though as expected um we thought they'd move back some t- boxes particularly out there in the per 3es that is where the golf course got slightly more difficult so out there for moving day there's a chance they move up 17 there's a chance that eight is even moved up once again um if they don't do that and they move back some tea boxes the birdie average in theory could go down but what I'll say about the PGA Tour is that historically the most scorable of the four days is going to be out there on Saturday so you know if they're going to move stuff up out there on Friday out there for these tour Pros you'd have to think that Saturday they're you know thinking of doing that same kind of thing somewhere so I would say that the birdie average you know it's been the same for the first two rounds is probably going to be about that same number out there for Saturday this bogey average is where I think it could go up or down I would say with some tougher pins maybe them moving back some of those par Theses again maybe it stays around like 2.3 maybe it goes up to like 2.4 per round um I don't see it going way down though so I would say it's either going to stay around this like two and a quarter per round or maybe go up ever so slightly but uh yeah birdie average I think is probably going to stay about the same your Fairways greens I think will be pretty consistent out there from day to day and uh they did go I believe green average went down a little bit out there compared to round one uh about actually yeah about over a green per round actually with difference between Thursday and Friday a lot of that because they moved back those par three te boxes faery average though was relatively consistent out there from Thursday to Friday so um fairy average probably going to hover in that eight to eight and a half range for the entire week the green average is going to hover based on those Par 3 te boxes um I would say for moving day you're probably going to see an increase in Greens regulation as a as I said before like it's usually the most scorable out there on Saturdays but Sunday you're probably going to see about this 11 and a half average that we saw out there for round two so um when we're doing the live stream tomorrow night we'll probably Circle back to this round two average sheet as a I think that this is probably what we're going to see out there for Sunday U maybe even a little bit harder if they use some of the back pins out on nine or 15 uh nine of which uh would be 260 yards would be maybe the hardest hole that you have on the PJ tour the entire year um especially because nine green is also one of the hardest greens that you have on property then uh and by the way if you're short on that 260 yard hole you're in the water so that's what makes that hole even harder uh and then 15 can play 215 yards to the island green it's like 17 at TBC Saw Grass it's actually a smaller green than what they have at 17 at TBC Saw Grass and it would play like 70 yards longer so maybe they do that on Sunday right that could really Jack things up but that's what we're looking at for moving day of course Derek thank you he said thank you for showing the stats you want to run Xander and more CWA in your lineup it seems a little bit too chalky so yeah with those two in particular you could start with those two up top um as I said like even the chalk is only like five to eight maybe 9% higher own than some of the other guys around them so if you took those two guys up top just make sure you're leaving salary on the table if it's in The Big Field GBP if it's a single if it's single entry like smaller field kind of contest I don't know if I'd even be worried about starting with those two up top so it's a it's a tough slate yeah they're definitely going to be a little bit higher owns but if you like the shots gain metrics you think they're going to go out there and ball out I wouldn't talk you off of it what's going on says what's up just found my channel let's get some wins Amen to that cheers to that it's a just water here sometimes it's a crowning cke here on the weekends but uh let's get after it so those are the stat averages now let's take a look at these prop sites and I do have a dinner reservation at 10 I didn't realize we're already 45 minutes in but uh we should be good I do want to see what we have for uh these prop lines over here so I have some of the sports books up that we can use for comparison I'm not sure if prize pick has a board up it looks like they do over here on this side I'm curious where they have these birdie lines at so got lvot five you got a lot of guys at five birdies that were at five for today's round and a lot of the same guys at 4 and A2 so let me refresh this on Underdog there was already one fade that I kind of knew that I wanted to get to so what I was waiting for was some birdie lines so let's look at Aber Berg's birdies uh I guess I'm a glun for punishment I want to go back so he's at five so maybe not then moving on to five might be the Saving Grace keeping us from taking that kind of prompt but I want to see who they've gotten at four and a half half birdies that we can take and maybe a havland is in play he's uh one of the best birdie makers in this field and uh it's moving day as I said uh if anything I think they might give these guys a bone out there with a potential drivable par 4 they might not even if they don't I still think the birdie average will probably be like four and a half per round just because the golf course has been so scorable over the first few days why am I getting a phone call H I'm away right now all right let's do the uh Victor havind I get distracted easily so that's why I get uh triggered by that sometimes so let's take that Victor havind over and then let me show you what I was looking at for a fade so I do want to do some line shopping over here on prize pick first though so what do Adam Scott at so he's at 68 and a half on both books so I was kind of thinking that he might be at 69 over here on prize picks because if you take a look at his sports book juice he's a minus 150 or at least was earlier so if we go up here to Adam Scott not Scotty shuffler it's fine Adam Scott I know he's on here so you can see he's here at minus 150 towards the over um that's about as plus EV as you're going to find for one of these players on the board and well I don't think he has a line over here in draftings oh he actually does he's minus 155 towards the over um that's usually one of the better you know line values that we're going to find so I'm not sure if we're going to play this over here on price picks or on Underdog uh he is also at two bogey so that could be another way for us to go about it which Speaking of right if he has like a five birdie round he makes three bogeys that would be a minus two round he makes two Bogies and pushes that would be a minus five I think The Strokes Line's probably the way to go especially if that's where like all the the Sportsbook line value is out here on this kind of prompt but we could also consider taking that over here on the priz pick side so let's see what we can use as a pairing and try and find the the best spot to to try and take this prop so over here in prize pi I haven't say it's lower tier guys that they have at four and a half over here on Underdog we had Victor at 4 and a half let's see who else I'm not going to play guys like a a hogy pavon stuff so yeah I know they're at four and a half but there's a reason why I'm not pointing them out a Windom right I mentioned that I really like him out there for tomorrow like he could certainly be in play if we take a look at his shots gain metrics from today I'll show you that as well so you can see he gained on approach he gained with the putter round one he gained on approach gain with the putter that's vintage Windam Clark right there so I have no issues with that kind of stat profile and to show you the odds over here on Caesar's William Hill so let's find uh havland first so uh Windam Clark here minus 140 towards the over uh Victor hland is minus 165 so um I would say that the the hland one at least if you're looking for plus EV would probably be the best option and in this uh we're actually going to enter this slip here it's a minus 165 prop and a minus 15 5 drop here with the Adam Scott and we're getting almost a 3X payout because of the anti-correlation so yeah that's going to be what I end up going with out here for this combination I'm going to enter it over here on my phone on the side but uh yeah that combination because of the anti-correlation I think makes a lot of sense and uh if you're a plus cev player you're somebody that likes that aspect the prop betting I think it's a a very good strategy for a lot of sports including golf it's not the best strategy for golf uh sometimes especially if the board is like dra ically off but I think that these Sportsbook lines are are pretty sharp for the most part especially after two rounds they've gone to see the track uh they kind of know what to expect from the setup so we're going to put a pretty good chunk of change out there on that prop and it's G to be the Victor havland over on birdies the Adam Scott over on Strokes which uh like I said two at least minus 155 props minus 165 out there in one case not going to beat that kind of value over there on that kind of prop site so I agree with both takes and the reason why by the way I like the Holland over is uh he's one of the top birdie makers in this field he's top 10 in the category um so obviously with what I think is going to be like a 4.65 average if he's a top 10 birdie maker that puts him like over a five birdie average and uh considering how he's played the first few days I'd say he's due for some positive aggression and then Adam Scotts for the exact opposite right he's playing over his head he's lost on approach the first few rounds he's been Lux sacked completely by the short game the first few days he's the kind of guy that I could see going the other direction so I would say that the fade if you're trying to find props to enter are going to be the much sketchier things to find um just because I mean the golf course has been playing pretty easy this week I mean it's a very talented field uh it's going to be a hard time to try to fade any of these sort of players um at any golf tournament but when we're at a golf tournament like this where it only has the top 30 guys you're G to have to find somebody to fade if you want to go out there and do any or anti-correlation so it uh it can be pretty tough to do that but let's look at prize piix now after doing that over there on Underdog so prize piix has very similar pricing to what they had in round two at least from what I'm looking at right now actually might even be0 five lower out there on some players so there's Keegan I'm curious on whether he has a line so he does and he's minus 155 towards the over which is interesting and let's see if he has one over here on fandel and he's also minus 150 so you know I already pointed out that Adam Scott was available right at that same number over here in prize picks but maybe we can cook something up over here with his overun Strokes as well so and uh the reason why I would like a Keegan over is he he's not playing as terribly as an Adam Scott but round two he lost across the board round one was a lot better out there for Keegan but even then he still lost on approach so you know he won the BMW Championship right congrats to him right obviously very good um a good thing for his season in his career going forward but I mean he looks like he's back to the old Keegan Bradley that we've seen here in 2024 so I don't hate that here in priz piic and let's try and find ideally I would like to try and find a positive stance play to try and make this a regular 3x payout but if we have to take a second fade and just do a two and a half xer I am not against doing that what's going on Ian is that you calling me by the way let me see I was getting a call I have a feeling it was right yeah it was youan yeah I'm doing a live stream bro what's going on though um would I look at the pins yeah I'll do that for sure course is so pure dude it's absolutely insane and uh yeah I had a feeling you were calling me let's go through these pin locations though I'm 100% willing to do that this is gonna it's moving day right so they're they're probably gon to make these things juicy trying to get some birdies out there with the field and uh the course by the way Ian it was minted three like three weeks ago it's the first time that like they actually opened up the golf course and uh outside of these tour Pros I think there were a total of like 30 rounds played so uh mint is about as good of word that we can say and are we playing when we get back yes Ian let's play uh let's play ASAP when I get back I'll be back Monday so I have some I have some football [ __ ] to start doing Monday but uh yeah Monday afternoon or or Tuesday let go golfing let's take a look at these pin locations so this is for round three hole number one is a a very difficult hole but that pin location I would say I mean if you hit a good shot you can actually get it close there the reason why I say that is it's a long iron and you have enough room to to actually use like the green to get close to it um you're going to have enough room to like run up the shot and there's a little bit of slope to the right that would move shots close to this pin location and I actually want to check this out I think there's a back stop but I want to double check on that before I say it with any certainty I believe hole number one right in front of that bunker there's some slope coming back in so let's double check on so actually there's not even a bunker there so what am I looking at that overhead view yeah no bunker there in that overhead view but uh yeah there is a little bit of slope to the right that could help you out there hole two is a part three that one's going to play especially long unless they do shorten up that t boox so today that one if we go over here to Hole number two played about 170 yards I believe out there to a front pin location if they play it with this back TX it's probably going to pay like 220 which uh would make it a very difficult ho but because it's moving day this could be a candidate for a hole to be moved up we've seen that East Lake in the past they've taken hole two even before they changed up this green and had the t-box up out there for round three round four so we'll have to keep an eye on that one I would say that would be a prime candidate for something to get moved around a hole that's not going to get moved is hole number three so hole three is pretty much scorable no matter where this pin location's going to be and you can see here with hole number three it's over here on the front right so it's on a little bit of a crown actually so believe it or not I mean you would think from the overhead view that this would be one of the easier pin locations but because you have the slope to the left side which will take balls away from it a little bit of a slope over there to the right side as well um you're going to get penalized for any sort of dispersion left and right so I would say that hole number three is a sneaky hard pin location and that combined with what we saw at hole two uh does not look quite as easy as some of these normal Moving Day pins let's look at hole number four so hole four is in this back left it's got a little bit of a back stop so I think that's going to help some players out particularly with the kind of firm greens that we have this week and because you have a lot of green to run up a shot and it's not like right on top of a shelf back here in the back left I think that you're actually going to see more birdies at this hole for tomorrow than what you saw for today so maybe the first example of like a true Moving Day pin hole five is back down the hill so you see some monster drives at hole number five which means that if you hit the short stuff you're likely coming in with a wedge out here at whole five and uh over here on the front right it's not like it's in a bull or anything but you do have some room in front to potentially um try and uh run something up if you're coming out of the rough but if you're hitting a wedge I me you can see the shot here like Scotty shuffler hit today right it hit and only like rolled out like five maybe six feet from where the pitch point came in um that shot by the way would be perfect out there for the round three pin location I think that that one is also a pretty accessible one especially because a lot of players are going to have wedge in hand there hole six is a back left pin so let's go to the next toll show you that one um this is a par five so it's a good thing to have a back pin location on a part five as they're easier to access you've got some slope to the left so you for sure do not want to miss over here in this left bunker um really any of these left bunkers I think you'd be pretty much dead but if you miss over here on this like right side or really anywhere on the right side of the screen because you have this back stop over here you see this massive slope right over here towards the left side of this green um you're going to be able to use it as a little bit of a a cushion right you can hit it up onto that slope it's going to roll back and get close to that pin location so I would say that this one's like a true Moving Day pin as long as you miss on the right side of it if you miss to the left you make that kind of mistake um you deserve not to make a birdie because if if you don't or you miss anywhere else especially on that right side you're going to have a lot of room to run that shot up whole number seven is a front left pin and this is a longer downhill par for so unlike five that's a little bit shorter this one you're not going to have a wedge in hand unless you're like Benny and Rory maoy and you're smashing it down there and the front pin location especially if you're not one of the longer hitters is uh going to make this one a little tricky so yeah definitely some tricky pins that we've seen here uh but definitely a few that I think are scorable as well hole eight is back here towards the back left um if they don't move up the T boox here at hole number eight this one's going to be very tricky but I'll say because they are tucking it and putting it in the very back I think there's a chance they move up this tbox like you know this is a very difficult pin location for me to think that they would play if they're going to have them playing it as a layup hole then going at it with a wedge this back ho location it wouldn't be impossible but it would certainly be pretty tricky compared to what we had the first few days so um I would say that they're they're definitely not laying over and giving these guys like an easy Golf Course out here for round three but it wouldn't surprise me I just want to throw it out there for them to move up the T box again because I think a lot of people enjoyed that today had a ton of fans around hole number eight when I was out there and it's a really tricky pin location like sometimes the really tricky pin locations mean that they're doing something with the hole hole n is over here on the right side so no idea if they're going to move up this t-box out here for round three but the PIN location at least is in a pretty favorable spot it's on the easier side of the green you're going to have a little bit of a back stop over here on the right side so uh depending on where they put the T box that one could be a little easier than today if they move it up um or could play probably about the same if they leave it there a little bit further back ho 10 now is like a front right pin location so it's over here on this little section it's uh tucked just over this bunker which I think could be a little bit difficult but still a wedge in hand if you can go out there and hit the Fairway so I don't think that one is like too easy too hard by any means but maybe a little bit trickier than what you had for today's round whole 11 is and that one was moved up for today's round now that it's a center pin location you can see there on hole number 11 I doubt that this one's going to be moved up like it was for today so this will probably play to its full length but it is a center pin and probably the easiest that you're going to get there hole number 11 so uh probably moved back but a much much easier pin location hole 12 is a front left pin so this is a scorable hole just because of how short it is but it is tucked just over the bunker so I see some guys making bogeys out here but you are going to be rewarded for hitting some good shots so what be on whole 13 at this point so 13 is going to be a front right pin location uh this one's a little bit of a longer hole but uh also it's not the it's not the hardest pin but these front pins on a firm Golf Course uh maybe aren't as easy as they would be on a soft Golf Course uh 14 is tucked towards like the middle left of that green so let's go to that one so that's a part five by the way so the fact that it's at least a little bit further into the green I think it'll help guys with trying to make Eagle but it's a tough up and down if you short side yourself in this bunker and a little bit tougher of a chip if you leave your ball short is it's a little bit further into the green 15 is a front right pin so I'll say because they're tucking this one a little bit closer to the water that it probably won't play the 215 yards so it might play to like the 160 yard T box kind of like what they had for today reason why I say 160 right is it's going to play shorter out there to that front pin location but uh I can't see them using the 215 yard T box to a difficult pin like that front right it's just not going to happen they won't do it with a with greens this firm whole 16 is a back pin it's way back in that back corner I got to say these these Moving Day pins are is harder than normal 100% is what I'm getting from this U pin sheet here um now they might move some te boxes right that might be where they kind of you know counteract some of the tougher pin locations but they're in that back little you're going to have room to to run up your shot if you need to but it is a small landing area right back there in that back corner 17 is a prime location that they could move up uh the T box they can make this one drivable if they want to and uh 17 to show you it's over here on this right side I don't know I think I think there's a good chance they move up eight or 17 I guess we're going to have to see which one they do if any out there tomorrow and then finally 18 is a middle left pin so it's a your finishing part five you have at this golf course so it's over here on this top left shelf I believe let me double check yeah so it's 11 Paces from the left so let's uh let's see where that one would be at yeah so it's going to be just above the shelf out there at hole number 18 H I think that they're trying to to ramp up the difficulty here a little bit right because obviously if you miss it over here to the right it makes the putt really difficult to try and make an eagle on if you miss the screen especially to the right side it's going to be a tough up and down because that pin is just over the sh do definitely I think a little bit trickier than what we had for round two so good call to go out there and look at some of those pins it makes me feel really good or at least maybe a little bit better about the Adam Scott Fade that we took before and um definitely makes me want to take this Keegan Bradley fade so let's try and find something to to go ahead and match that up with the greens are firm like cement that's for sure this course has turned easy with no lettuce around uh I don't know if I'd call it easy but yeah definitely easier than most people think a 400 milligram tobacco tincture that's crazy what the [ __ ] thoughts on more Kawa and Xander over five and a half birdies U five and a half birdies is a pretty crazy projection you can get them at four and a half on some other prop sites like what you can see on like Underdog um five and a half I'm assuming you're getting some juice towards the over so if you want me to consider that just let me know what they have out there for like the number on like FanDuel or whatever because that matters morawa has a decent chance over five and a half I don't disagree with that yeah he's been going off this week he's done it the first two rounds he's he's he's been a baller so far did I see fat Perez walking around the course today I did not James I didn't know he was walking around the course or else I would have kept a better eye out for him but uh he's a pretty noticeable character so yeah unfortunately I didn't James let's find a let's find a pairing for this Keegan prop and then I've got to get out of here because uh I've got a dinner reservation calling my name so Tony fale could be a potti potential overs spot he's one of the better birdie makers out there in the PGA Tour and out of the guys that they have on here at four and a half birdies he's probably one of the better players also a Justin Thomas uh he's not afraid to go after some tucked pin locations what I want to see though is what we have for like a a line for comparison so we're looking for Tony feno we're looking for Justin Thomas which I'm not sure if they have a line over here but let's double check so F now is only minus 125 so Sports Book value isn't really there and then I don't think JT has anything for comparison so H not the best there let's see if anything on if there's anything on FanDuel there might be rounds score nothing nothing up there for birdies okay and let's see what they have here in draft games round score [ __ ] that so yeah nothing to compare out there with JT uh Tony fenel is marginally Juiced towards the over and after seeing those pins I don't want to force in anything so what is this line on Underdog is he 69 I had a feeling he was yeah he's already up there at 69 he is down there at two Bogies or worse though so maybe that would be a spot to go out there and get that exposure but for now I do want to try and get this in there though so somebody's taking some ban unders I guess which uh maybe it's an over at 69 Strokes I guess I shouldn't judge a book by its cover but let's see what we've got on here so SE has been playing some okay golf hitting the ball well with his ball striking so not somebody that I'd be shy against taking an under on um pavon 69 no thank you if he was like 69 and a half or 70 though I would be considering him for an under as a I do think that he's got a low round in him who else do we have on the board maybe it's a two- fade kind of slip we don't have to make it like an over and an under um we could go with the double fade slip which would pay less but based on what we just saw with those pin locations it might be the proper play so we could go Adam Scott but I'm I'm going to try and differentiate this a little bit um going to try and uh Shuffle our cards a little bit right hedge our bets a little bit by not taking the same guy twice that's something that I've learned with prop bitting by the way is that they're going to get some bad beats and uh to protect yourself a lot of times it's a good idea not to like double up on players so the kind of guy I'd be looking at here would be like Billy horsell he's not had the best week so far um just to show you some of these stats he uh round two was better than round one but he did only shoot minus two today and uh yeah like I said better than round one but round one lost two strokes off the T and lost two strokes approach so if we look at his averages over the first few rounds he's losing a stroke per round off the te a stroke per round out there on approach so like I said today was a slight positive out there in both of those categories but it wasn't anything great out there from Billy hoe so I think the scoring average is probably going to be about two underpar and uh Billy hoe who I think is an average to maybe below average player in this kind of field is the kind of guy that I would take an over on so yeah for the sake of this we're actually going to take this as a slip so if I put 200 on it it'd be to win 500 let's do that all right Keegan Bradley over it be Billy Harel over on Strokes uh they moved the propt before I could take it here on live stream so now that's what we're doing gez Louise and yeah I'm not submitting it with the 69 now yeah we're not doing that all right we'll take the over on Billy horel still and try and take it with something else it's always something with prize picks right sometimes they're not letting me actually see the board sometimes they're bumping stuff before I can even take it so this Patia over caught my eye as well he's also not playing particularly well so we saw that with horel and maybe it's a Saving Grace with Keegan right maybe tomorrow is his bounce back round and that was uh the betting Gods protecting us from taking something bad but uh look at this right approach negative out there for oxay round one also into the negative so let's do that maybe it was the gambling Gods going out there and saving us and we're going to put 200 on those two to win 500 so that was a Billy Coro over in Strokes oxy batia over in Strokes which again we don't have lines for comparison but if guys like Keegan are minus 155 if guys like you know Adam Scott who's playing really good golf actually um right was in contention last week is is up there towards the top of the board this week or at minus 155 towards the over you have to think guys like Billy hoe oxy that aren't playing as well would probably have even more juice towards their over so I think that those ones are especially good plays which is why I'll take them for a 2 and a2x payout uh which is sub ideal right three X is uh the standard over here on prize picks for Twan and I'll do it when I think that there's so much line value on those two players so that'll be it for the live stream I got I've got to get out of here and get to dinner I've got 20 minutes until my reservation so I don't want to be too late out there to the steakhouse uh we'll see if there's any last second questions and then uh hop on out of here people been uh chirping Billy Ho on Twitter and he's taking time to clap back yeah that's funny I have seen that Jack I've been liking his tweets clapping back at people so while yeah me fading him by no means right me saying that I don't like the guy but uh I did see that I found that quite humorous but uh that's all I've got guys I appreciate you guys stopping by the live stream as per usual I've got it caught it off now as I've got that dinner reservation but hopefully you feel a little bit more prepared for all of your action out there for Saturday go ahead smash that like button if you guys haven't already also go out there and hit that subscribe button if you haven't already as well that way you don't miss any of the content to come and all the different pieces of content throughout the rest of the year we'll have our Sunday Showdown stream going over props and Showdown out there for Sunday out there tomorrow evening and then during the fall swing covering all of those golf events and uh as I already talked about earlier also that first piece of NFL content that will be dropping either on Monday or Tuesday um out there for the Thursday night football slate so I'm looking forward to it should be an absolute blast best of luck out there with everything that you're going with and uh have a good night guys and uh yeah of course Rick best of luck out there yourself appreciate that um out there with the the thank you note and let's have ourselves a day guys