DFS Stream 2023 BMW Championship : Draftkings GPP Pool, Ownership, Prize Picks + Live Chat w/ Gsluke

foreign foreign [Music] s it's your boy GS Luke here with our weekly live stream this time we've got our AFC Championship game right we're heading into the Super bowl next week over there in Atlanta and we got to figure out who the contenders are going to be so here on this live stream gotta break down what you need to know both for props and for DFS and if you got any questions don't be afraid at all to go ahead and throw them down and chat this time is as much of yours as it is everyone here so uh if you've got thoughts any ideas you want to balance out bounce off of me or really anyone down in the chat too feel free to go ahead and let us know but until then welcome on in say hi down in chat if you're already here uh like I see a bunch of you have we have a Jackson Nick down there Antonio Mark Curtis Martin uh first off welcome on in fellas a few comments we've got here so first off Jackson I appreciate the kind words he says Luke has been insanely profitable here um for this year you have a 2v2 that you're curious on so you've got Glover versus Haddon um and I guess that's versus right a Hodges and svenny or is it uh you're doing it by like the top tier versus the bottom tier okay so I like that better it makes my job easier Jackson so it's a Glover versus Haddon up there towards the top and then you've got Hodges and Spenny towards the bottom so frankly I think if you're going hand up top I think I like maybe Hodges a little bit more down low the reason why I say that right is the ownership you know is kind of distributed differently between those four players by taking a hand in a Hodges you have one chalky maybe one slightly lower owned player in a trail ahead and then if you started with the Glover right well then you kind of want to get different down low right that's where I think Svenson who's maybe a little bit lower owned than Lee Hodges might make sense for you there so I would say it kind of depends but just make sure that you're matching up right maybe one of the higher owned guys with one of the low roads that would be my advice to you there that's going on Nick he says uh do you think anybody will just throw all 50 guys um into the optimizer I can guarantee you they will in fact I think a lot of the top tier 150 maxers are going to use that same strategy I mean we've seen it even in like 70 player Fields um I know at East Lake last year there were at least four or five Pros that went out there and played all 30 players now on the 30 player field a little bit easier right than what you have here with all 50 but you're gonna have a lot of Pros that go out there and play 35 to 40 players right and it'll be all about how much of every player that they're taking right certain guys I'm sure they'll be over the field on and then you know even taking everyone right you're going to be under the field on at least probably half your player to pull too um the thinking there Nick right for the people that are doing that is that you can cover more outcomes right when there's only like 50 or in the case of next week right only 30 people um so you can afford to do that right you don't need to have um double the field on every player when double the field is going to be like 45 to 50 percent right for some of the chalky players but you only have 50 players you may only need like 25 to 35 percent of everybody to touch enough outcomes to feel comfortable with it right and that's so dependent on each Pro's strategy so I know a lot of the guys that do like 400 lineups they do exactly that and this week with 50 players I would be shocked to not see at least a few do that uh what's up bro Loki feels like a major this week yeah I agree with you Antonio major championship field major championship type of golf course what's going on Mark what's going on Curtis we got Martin and the best way to be unique I would say lineup construction wise uh let's bring up the weather we'll talk about that here in a second but yeah Nick to answer your question it's a great question by the way um it's really tough this week right the ownership um is a lot more condensed because there's only 50 players and like even our low owned guys like the guys that are unowned this week are like five percent out right so to get different it's a little bit more difficult right we got to be a little bit more creative about it I would go the lineup construction method I'd go out there try and take players that are um a little bit more balanced right if you want to do it let's just go over here to DraftKings right you got to fade the top end of the board right if you really want to get different this week a really easy way to do so is with line of construction a lot of people and we'll talk about this when we go through the actual player pool are going to go studs and Duds right they're going to try and take at least one of the guys up there in the 10K plus range uh they're at least at the very least gonna take a 9k golfer right and mix them in with one of those top end players if not taking like two of the 10K plus guys I mean really making it at studs and Duds kind of lineup because we have the 5K players again right if you haven't noticed I'm sure you have right here on a Wednesday of course uh none of you are just getting into your lineups now um fifty five hundred dollars right you can afford right two of those 10K players so if you're gonna get different this week Nick ownership is always a way to accomplish that right it's a little bit less efficient this week because of some you know only 50 players to work with but maybe you do with a lot of construction right maybe you fade the top end of the board you say you know what I think enough of these mid-tier players are going to hit this week that maybe you don't have to have one of these top three you don't have to have the chalk can't lay right or a lot of people are playing hobland in Fleetwood right that I like in my lineups you know maybe you start with a Fleetwood right instead of him being like your second or your third man in and you completely avoid the 6K range right so it's like a two-headed fade right you're fading the top end of the board and then in your case Nick right you can also fade like the bottom end of the board um I've heard that idea thrown around a little bit um by a few different people I have respect around the industry I think it was a toe tag and Tambo that said it on a Mayo stream today and uh I'm not doing that just for full transparency I might have a few lineups just by chance that end up a little bit more balanced but a vast majority of my build will be uh studs and Duds so I'm going with the ownership perspective uh frankly in a week like this it's like not a good GBP week right like I'm still playing in the GBP because I enjoy them right it's just one week right I can go out there I can throw my entries into there um but if you're going out there with most of your exposure right and you're really worried about Roi um for me at least with main slate this week I'm not worrying about it all that much I know it's going to be volatile I I'd probably play single entries right I would try and avoid even worrying about trying to differentiate yourself because it's it just feels so negative EV right to avoid the top end of the board right I'm lending you know that's a way to differentiate yourself but it just it doesn't feel great right especially when like you have guys at fifty five hundred dollars that could reasonably hit this week it's a yeah it's a tough one I'll say that it's gonna be a fun week with DFS we'll have to see how it works out let's talk about this golf course so we'll get into questions we'll get into some strategy stuff here in a few minutes but let's focus on what we're gonna see here over the next four days which the last time we saw this Golf Course Olympia Fields Country Club maybe it's Golf Club not sure Olympia Fields either way over there near uh Chicago Illinois uh played really hard in fact uh per John ROM per a few other players in the field I played exactly like a US Open U.S open entails long rough really difficult hard to hit Fairways out there and a firm and fast conditions right and the last Factor there right the first few are going to be the same this time around but firm and fast conditions for really what defined it there in 22 20 so that's why I played 1.8 over par in fact that included one round where the scoring average was just .33 over par um over there for Sunday's round which might be a little bit of foreshadowing for some of the rounds that we see this weekend um there on Sunday the winds died down and the golf course that was still firm and fast but without some of the external elements was left to be exposed this time around we get a soft version right so I mentioned it's not going to be firm and fast they've gotten a ton of rain over the last three or four days in fact I think it's just over two inches that they've gone since uh the weekend um they're on the Friday or Saturday is when that count is from which means just like we had for the last few weeks on tour right might be lift clean in place early in fact tomorrow because of some of the chance of rain early um I think that'll definitely be lift clean in place but the issue is at least for tomorrow now for Friday through Sunday I just want to say this now I think it's going to play way easier than what we saw in 2020 I think you might see a scoring average under par for a few days and that's a huge hot take by the way I can guarantee you there's no one expecting that over this weekend but I you might see it you might see an under par scoring average reason why I say that is Sunday right in 2020 it hardly played over par right .33 shots over part of there on Sunday and it was still firm and fast on Friday we're going to look at some of the weather forecast here now they're calling for no wins right you can see early right I guess it's like it's 10 mile an hour winds right but it's going to be receptive out there they can take this place under par so like don't be completely mind [ __ ] if this golf course is one it like I said minus nine I think on my course preview Monday I've adjusted that to minus 15. I think these guys especially from Friday on are going to tear up this golf course now let's talk about tomorrow tomorrow is not going to be the Rarity Fest that you see for the rest of the week and there's one major reason why each Triple R forecast this has been in the forecast the entire week this wind storm that pretty much lasts the entire day tomorrow um has not just come up out of nowhere in fact this forecast for the wind has been very consistent this week I couldn't tell you why I'm not a meteorology student I'm not somebody that pretends to be a you know a meteorologist out here what I do know is that every single weather forecast here is calling for just ridiculous winds tomorrow now some of them they're calling for like 40 mile an hour wind gusts like they have with the Nam some of them are a little bit more tempered like you'll see with some of the ones here right where you can see it's like 20 to 25 miles an hour there for the afternoon hours but they're all nasty like no matter which way you split this up they're all going to be extremely unpleasant conditions the reason why I say it's going to play so much harder tomorrow is not only does it affect your iron shots right but the off the T Fairways that are already hard to hit here that five six inch Kentucky bluegrass off is going to be hit all day right it's going to be next to impossible to hit the fairways the greens out of the rough are going to be next to impossible to hit um so you're going to see maybe a few players that can navigate The Wind that happen to keep their ball in play which is just going to be a feet and a half tomorrow and then I think might shoot like three four under par I think you might see a few guys do that uh your first round leader if I had to guess would be like four maybe five under par tomorrow but you're gonna see a lot of over par rounds if you even slightly off if you're even you know one inch into that Kentucky Bluegrass rough uh it's gonna be you're gonna be [ __ ] out of luck you're gonna be out there looking for your golf ball perhaps not even finding it just like a foot or two off the Fairway that's how deep some of this rough can be and it's not just you know if you're off the tee shots right the rough surrounds every single green so unlike a TPC Southwind right where like the rough is really just a factor off the T it's a factor around the green at this golf course right similar to Oak Hill Wings foot some of the other U.S soap and kind of setup so that you've seen would you miss these small greens which I believe like 5 000 square foot greens which are like slightly below the tour average in terms of size they're not tiny but uh they're definitely not like large greens they're small targets out there you're going to be penalized for it so tomorrow conditions I think will play similar to what you saw there um in 2020 uh so maybe like this 1.8 over par scoring average that you solve for all four rounds I think that's a good Target for round one the the issue is right for the rounds three uh sorry two through four I think I don't want to say it's going to be a birdie Fest right let's not go that far you still have to go out there and execute your golf shots but I think you could see something like seven to eight under par if the if the winds die down like what we're gonna see here for Friday so I know a lot of people this week right are using very difficult narratives they're using oh we got to look at major championship setups to do our analysis and I was doing that there on Monday I'm not doing that now right I've adjusted some of my thought process I've uh definitely come around to the fact that I think it'll play easy for the last three days you can see on Saturday if it actually is a little bit more windy right maybe that's a more difficult round right where it still plays like a stroke maybe stroking a half over par but if any of the last few days are like we have here on Friday especially Friday afternoon where it looks extremely calm um at least that's that's GFS let's see what Nam looks like that's apparently better for Friday afternoon yeah it does look like Friday afternoon might actually be a little bit calmer than what we have in the morning um then maybe they go out there and kill it there on Friday afternoon right she's someone like seven to eight under par so uh you're definitely gonna have to have your execution down to take this course low but compared to 2020 I think you're going to see a different kind of leaderboard some of these shorter hitters uh like a Brendan Todd Mackenzie Hughes Atlanta Griffin um Brian Harman for example I don't think you're going to see on the leaderboard this time around those kind of players were able to get by with How firm and fast the fairways were they got a lot more roll out than they're going to get this time around the ball's just gonna stick where it lands and when that happens I know you might get um preferred lives for like round one I mentioned to that there's a possibility um so it would be an advantage to be accurate maybe for that first round but after that right it's going to be all about getting it out there and getting uh more carry distance on your still definitely think it'll be driving distance based um out here in 2023 but uh maybe a little bit easier from the scoring perspective that I think a lot of people out there think I think it's you know maybe tomorrow right it'll be difficult by the time we get to Friday uh people are gonna be like what the heck I thought this was a major championship type of venue uh it is it's a difficult golf course but any golf course when it's receptive and there's no wind um is going to be under assault I can guarantee you that all right let's hop into questions let's hop into Chad and then talk some DFS um afterwards of course we'll be going through props so if you hear for those we'll be touching on those towards the end of the live stream probably like 15 maybe 20 minutes from now uh but yeah for that time period it's time to talk some DFS let's see what we got is it a good strategy to leave one to two case salary on the table for an event like this my thought process is that a lot of your top end players a lot of you know especially because it's such a strong field it's almost like a major championship um it'd be hard to leave that win equity on the table now if this was an alternate field let's say it was like a wacky you know 50 to 70 player field but it was like a Puerto Rico opened type of strength I would definitely like that strategy but uh maybe not with these kind of guys playing like a Rory out there I can tell you that doing that uh would make you instantly unique right no one's going to do that this week Jackson says thoughts on ending with two guys sub six and a half K I like that Jackson I'm gonna have a lot of lineups like that so um I have no hesitation doing so I don't see a huge difference between some of the guys that are like 6 500 and then some of the guys down here in the 5K range maybe there's a difference in form you can see a lot of the recent form ranking guys um that are down there in the 40s are 5K golfers right so it's very related to recent form but it's not like a Sheamus power a Tom Hoagie um a Patrick Rogers right any of these guys down here can't go out there and pop any given week right a few of them are tour winners great power Hoagie Patrick Rogers not a tour winner yet but has definitely had his fair share of like top five top ten so um I have no hesitation doing that for sure especially because of what it buys you up top right that's the more important part single entry not in our community contest okay so no duplicating going on here right so you've got hovland's Fleetwood Homa young English and kirayama is it too chalky I think you're all right so hofland's Fleetwood actually a little bit lower owned than I was expecting and you've got a kittyama in there English you're probably okay Mark it's it's tough to say there's gonna be a lot of duplicates because there's only 50 players um John says sup Luke you were wondering if leaving salary on the table can help to be somewhat contrarian it can for sure I'd probably leave like 500 on the table though um two Grands people are saying like one to two k that's just overdoing it um at least for most slates this is like not like your limited field kinds of stuff if you leave 300 on the table you're differentiating yourself from like 99.4 percent of lineups so like right there you're pretty much accomplishing everything you need to now in a week like this people are going to be a little bit more willing to leave that salary right we've already had a few questions over it just like the first like 10 15 minutes here so maybe you do leave like 500 to maybe a thousand on the table as opposed to like 300 to 500 like you would for most weeks but don't like go one to 2K right I think that's just like a little bit too much yeah a little bit of salary John I think it'll work out it's like it's like they're playing in the windy city or something exactly right uh super windy conditions uh did Fitz lose all his powers when the braces came off I would love to see a little graphic right of when that happened and then his shots gained afterwards but uh in all seriousness it's a pretty good fit for him this week so maybe it comes around how am I handling Kim Young with his ability to pop uh he's a core play for me so he's actually a player that I've met out right I'm playing him over there for DFS so I'm not sure if you've seen my core plays video yet um if you haven't I have a whole segment where I talk up cam young but I really like him here I think that it's one of the better fits that he's ever had on the PGA tour in terms of a golf course right one that rewards distance off the tee and then won that Agronomy wise matches up with what he plays ball is there more scoring many conditions are cloudy with soft and wet conditions or when it's sunny and greens are firm um it's very nuanced so you can't really just look at one factor and determine that it depends on whether it's a long golf course to begin right a shorter golf course I'll say for this week right if it's soft it's going to play Easier the reason why it'll play easier if it's soft is that the fairways will be easier to hit right I mentioned there's like four or five inch rough right so like that's obviously going to help and then with hitting greens out of the rough if you do happen to miss the Fairway having receptive greens is the only way to hit a green out of the rough like at a five six inch rough if you go out there go to a golf course that actually has that kind of rough you'll see that you get zero spin on the golf ball and if they're firm greens too I know you mentioned that it's like hitting a trampoline right it's like literally dropping a golf ball on a piece of asphalt or a trampoline and you have zero chance of getting it to hold so the receptive greens what 100 help it'll make the golf course longer I think with some of the rain it's going to be a little bit more difficult early tomorrow but like Friday through Sunday it'll play a lot easier at least in my opinion Antonio says what is my betting card is Cam young it is Victor and Tommy Fleetwood I have three players on it nothing crazy do I comp this course to Oak Hill and or Winged Foot yeah I do so on my course breakdown video I comped it to those two um there on a Monday a lot of people watch my course breakdown and then paired it throughout their content so I'm sure you heard that in a few other podcasts and uh now you're asking me about it yeah they got it from me from my my course breakdown there on Monday so uh Winged Foot because of the rough small greens um Oak Hill as well right all of the greens are surrounded by deep rough rather than shipping areas so yeah I compared to those kind of golf courses as opposed to something like a Southern Hills because the Southern Hills has a few shipping Hollows like a a players championship for example right has you know shaved off Fairway areas around the green um Oak Hill Winged Foot and then this golf course and there's not many others that come to mind I'm just like it's rough everywhere and that's what it is this week also a bunch of trees what's wrong with phenow and does he have any chance I think he's got a good chance in terms of what's wrong I guess let's look at the shots gained I mean I guess the putter right other than that it's fine Teeter green very on brand right gaining across the board and then losing a half a stroke putting so um he's just not putting well happens right guys sometimes get into a little bit of a drought if he snaps out of it setting up for a pretty decent week right D young thoughts on Tom Kim and I worry about the distance Factor here with the Tom Kim not so much with it Betty Anne my worry with Benny Ann at least why I'm not playing him in the large field gpp would be ownership right he's one of the higher owned plays on the entire slate right not even just um down here in this range actually believe it or not he might be the highest known to play around the Slate let me let me think here second highest known to player on the entire slate um is Benny Ann and that's uh the only guy who's higher owned than Benny Ann by the way just for transparency is Rory McIlroy right and he's like 24 25 of something like that in my last set of projections so that's the issue with Benny Ann as I think too many people like them so if you're just betting out right if you're taking match-ups um Heck if you're just doing anything but a GBP lineup over there for DFS so just like a single entry um anything but like the big five or twenty five dollar contest he's fine I like them it makes a lot of sense but uh you know my exposure right what I'm talking about here for DFS is through the filter of the large five dollar GBP right that's what I play every week that's what we review there on the live streams so I'm not gonna love him because of the ownership but hey like I said if you're not in those kind of builds that's fun you can definitely play them what am I doing with Hideki dude is an enigma I agree with you on that he's very hard to predict I'm not playing in them here just because of the off the tee play he's a little bit sporadic there and uh there are a few guys around him that I just like a little bit more but up top if there's somebody that you have a lean on especially somebody like Hideki who's not overly Mega chalky this week right in fact I think he's one of the lower owned players I'd say um here in the 9k range I have no issues getting there whatsoever any Eric kolov I think he's just a good player Jackson I don't think it's a good golf course for him at all I think it's one of the worst actually on tour um in terms of a course fit but he's just a gamer and if you think the gamer is going to come through I have no problems with that Kevin says what am I what are my thoughts on Rose and shank um Rose I think sets up decently for the golf course uh it's not a very strong take though right like I think he's an okay play and then Adam shank I actually really like here he plays well at golf courses that are kind of off the tea heavy um Innisbrook comes to mind a few recent tracks where it's been a lot of drivers off the tee that he's played well um with the receptive conditions I think you're going to see a lot of you know drivers from players this time around I like Adam shank this week definitely one of my hotter prospects if you're choosing between English and colmark you've got to ask yourself what you're looking for right if you're looking for upside you know I'd probably side towards English right English more of a track record when it comes to top fives if you're looking for consistency right you're in a single entry maybe like a single you know a cash contest maybe you know maybe you look at Eric Cole right he's been a little bit more consistent so uh it depends on what you're looking for Mark but you know to me English is a little bit more volatile but also has a lower floor James says thoughts on Grio really good driver of the golf ball so if you're looking for that this week like I am uh he's going to pretty much be somebody you have to play right the issue here kind of like a Benny in is that he's Mega chalky like everyone's playing a milliona Grillo which is deservingly so right like I said is just on an absolute heater right now but you gotta ask yourself is he twice as likely to succeed um is all the guys around him and in most cases maybe a few cases that the answer there would be yes but in most of them the answer would be no so it depends on the contest you're in if you're in a single entry smaller field kind of contest I think he makes a lot of sense why does it feel like Rory is about to boat race the field it wouldn't surprise me Antonio if he keeps the ball in play in fact if Scotty does if Rory goes out there drives it like that I mean Victor Holland we know he can hit the ball in an absolute string out there if any of them get in the zone they could win this by five six Strokes it's that kind of golf course where you know if you're not missing I mentioned like seven eight under par being a possibility right John wrong shot six under that last day there in 2020 when the winning score was minus four this time around I think you're gonna see even more of that kind of volatility and you know like I said if someone gets into that zone their proverbial Zone that we hear about could very well go out there and nuke the golf course yo I I could see it man for sure maybe it's Rory maybe it's someone else you're choosing between hovland or Fleetwood so if you have the salary and you don't need to differentiate or anything right you take Hopland now the reason why we mentioned that is you might have a little bit of a chalkier build to worry about there you might need to you know save a little salary to upgrade one of your other five spots right in that lineup um it all kind of depends on the rest of your build if you're comfortable in terms of um salary in terms of lineup construction um take Victor hovland right I have no problems with that but if you need any sort of differentiation take Tommy Fleetwood in fact you might even want to leave the salary on the table right maybe you spend up a little bit more with another spot but spending down the six hundred dollars is going to make it really easy for you to at least leave like 200 to 300 on the table and can help you out if you're having problems with differentiation so I don't know it depends man depends on the rest of your build what's going on Bobby he says another huge beak let's make it another one huh that'd be nice Maga says this week has been the hardest to try and predict usually you feel good but you don't feel confident at all maybe that's a good thing then Maga right I don't see winning gpps every single week right so maybe it's a good thing a higher scores seem to throw you off yeah it's for me it's the small field right you only got 50 players um ownership is so condensed it's just kind of wonky how uh does Hodge does Hodges model well um for this golf course uh based on his recent play it does so if like if you like take a look at his last 12 rounds um they 100 model row and he's super cheap too right what is he um sixty one hundred dollars I'm mostly looking for guys that can drive it pretty straight and long um he's been doing that over the last month or so um that can put it decently in their good iron players right he checks those boxes the issue is and I mean it doesn't fall off that much I mean don't get me wrong here but it starts to fall off a little bit right the more we zoom out right the putter is no longer you know a stroke around um he's still pretty good off the tee still pretty damn good on approach so he's a good play this week but I kind of worry about his uh the fact that it's so recent it feels like you're kind of buying at his Peak doesn't it um you'll ask do I think Glover can get a top ten for sure I think anyone can there's only 50 players right so a top 10 is just a Top 20th percentile performance for somebody like lover you just gotta sustain what you're doing right if he goes out there he continues The Hop play what is what's his price tag he's 9 100 bucks guy is an arm and a legless this week in terms of price tag you get 100 top 10 do I think he's going to no but can he absolutely you can't uh anyone in this field that's made it this far could definitely top ten it feels like nobody talks about Davis and he always top tens or top fives every week look at his uh beginning of the year stats he doesn't top five or top 10 every week in fact he missed like eight straight cuts to start the season uh I love him to death I'm playing them this week don't get me wrong but he's he's a volatile mofo he's he's not that consistent guy trust me uh you win you're not MaGa on DraftKings so you win uh gpps every week damn you should be giving us the picks then man I gotta say that much what about kirayama in the top five uh I think that he's got a shot too right I mean anyone in this kind of field right top five is the equivalent of like a top 15 or 20. right it's it's not like it's a crazy performance to finish in the top 10 percent of this field right that's what a top five would be out here so um kittyama if anyone's gonna you know if you're gonna bid on top five I know it's a strong field I the terms of like odds in terms of the value that you're getting I think long shot top fives aren't a bad idea right there's the whole psychological thing you're like oh it's a top five and a major he's not playing against 156 people or like 140 people like you get with an Open Championship it's it's a different ball game and I know you're like oh but like 50 through 120 like they don't matter like they do matter not not as much right don't get me wrong I'm not saying they're as good as these top 50 I mean that's obviously not true but they matter right they change the odds Davis was sick at the beginning of the Season allegedly um yeah I saw that too I think I'm not sure what he had going on but yeah he obviously is a little bit better now but even before that dude he was not uh not Mr consistency he was like uh Mr 55 Cut Rate so uh it's not just like a this year kind of thing is Dave being overlooked this course fits him to a t he's played horribly here and at these playoff events over the years back in 2020 did he start he did he finished uh six from last place there were only 70 players two of them dnp'd so there were only 68 players and uh he finished in 64th Place that included losses of over nine Strokes ball striking so I don't know if it fits him honestly maybe like the like course fit model is okay on them let me see what I have them at I'll bring it up on my other tab I'm not sure if he models well at least what I'm looking at maybe with what you are but yeah he's a where's the ranking number 34 in the field at number 19 in pricing so yeah my my model wasn't as uh big on his prospects whether it's tomorrow I think a slate Edge towards the guys going off a little bit later if you're gonna break any ties I meant to mention this a little bit earlier right maybe you take the guys going a little bit later so if you look at the actual hour-by-hour forecast we'll go to the H Triple R it's the most up to date let's go ahead and just refresh this uh make sure we're working with the most up-to-date and uh yeah you can see really early they're calling for like 30 to 35 mile an hour wind gusts um they're teeing off at like I think it's 8 45 local time so it's only going to be for like the first maybe hour of play where the wind gusts are really high so like if you're teeing off from like 11 A.M onwards I think you might have a slight Edge tomorrow now earlier today they were calling for lower winds in the PM than what they are for right now it's actually gone a little bit worse this forecast um as the day has gone on um so I don't think it's as big of an edge as like what we had at like 2 3 P.M um today but it's still like a slight Edge right you don't want guys teeing off like first tomorrow because over there for Friday morning it looks like pretty ideal conditions right if you're one of the first ones off there on Friday morning which if you're one of the late starters right there tomorrow you're going to be one of the earlier guys tomorrow I'm sorry I should say for Friday um you're gonna get perfect conditions right so like if one set of players is dealing with like 35 on our wind gusts one of them is dealing with perfect conditions the next day um I would slightly favor right the ones that are going off late but it's not it's not too crazy I just realized I thought I had my weather projections up that was fun let me show you what I'm talking about I was on the wrong tab uh yeah I refreshed it it looks very similar to before but you can see here right from like seven until 10 a.m they're calling for those really high wind gusts um so you might see that slight Edge but it's it's nothing crazy don't overdo it I would say let's see it's go through a few players that I like and then I will talk some props so in terms of player pull right I still like hobland Fleetwood um came young I'm just keeping my betting card to those three as a it's a limited field right you can't bet like five six players uh and get away with it in this kind of field so uh just not gonna go crazy in terms of exposure there's a good chance that I'm gonna live at somebody at some point right maybe after Friday's rounds they go out there find a live ad that's uh worth taking but uh until then yeah just gonna go with those three players in terms of this middle tier range in terms of exposure there's not a bunch of people that are highly owned here right like Lucas Glover's getting some attention but outside of that ownership is really spread out so if you're looking for a pivot it's in this range um Jason day I know I trashed them for his performance last time out but he's like five percent out so if you're looking for any sort of pivot he's a really good guy to consider for that kind of lineup let's see you've got uh Ricky Fowler here right he's in Crazy form he's relatively low owned Sun JM he's moderately owned two you can consider him in this range Corey Connors Windham clerk I know that they're not in sparkling form coming in especially Windham Clark where he's number 40 in the field when it comes to recent form ranking but just look at his performance at other offiti heavy golf courses um we're out there in one multiple times right yeah multiple times I know Quail Hollows I don't know if we call his other you know solid performances like driver heavy golf courses but the win at Quail Hollow undoubtedly right a really driver heavy Golf Course LACC and maybe maybe not so much I know it's a U.S open but that Golf Course wasn't that demanding off the tee um but yeah he's he's made for these kind of tracks right he's big he's strong he can extricate himself from all that rough that he needs to so uh I like him just wanted to point him out um Matt Fitzpatrick going way overlooked I know he's number 50 in the field last when it comes to recent form ranking but if he snaps out of it you're getting him it literally no ownership and that seems pretty intriguing in terms of chalk we mentioned Benny Anne right Emiliano Grillo um getting some ownership down here um Adam shank a little bit steamy you got a little bit of Steam on Eric Cole um not as much as like a Lee Hodges Lee Hodges one of the higher owned players um down here towards the bottom and then Believe It or Not Patrick Rogers because he's just so damn cheap and Patrick Rogers like I know the form's not amazing but like he's had a decent year right all things considered um he's get he's over 10 percent of it I think he was like 11 owned the last time I checked that's just crazy to even think right that the cheapest player in the field is going to be 11 owned so just know if you're taking pivots down here and you're thinking that you're going to get somebody that's like one two percent owned think again okay I think the lowest owned player down here with Sheamus power and he was like 5.5 percent owned so when you're getting to line up construction right just know that you you kind of are forced into pivoting in the middle tier range a little bit more right normally like especially when I build like studs and Duds kind of lineups I can kind of Bank on the fact that my 6K players are going to be like one maybe two percent owned at the very most that's not the case this week right if you're gonna get different right you kind of have to force yourself to be uncomfortable towards the top end of the board which is where like a Wyndham clerk would be extremely useful right because he's low owned this week um if I'm not playing Jason day I have zero interest but if you wanted to right he would be really useful for doing that I mean to get yourself a little a little bit different right let's see uh Matt Fitzpatrick he fits that description so there are chalky plays I like like a Fleetwood a Victor hovland uh Rory in fact I I can't believe I'm gonna say this I'm playing all three of the big three this week I'm playing all three of these guys up here right I'm gonna take them at high ownership high price tag spread out my ownership pretty well across these three players right I'm gonna have to take some uncomfortable plays with them right to offset the ownership to try and get some sort of Leverage to the field to take advantage of and that's the key this week it's not who you play it's how you play them this week okay that's the key to go out there and have yourself a profitable week at least from the gpp perspective let's go through um some line of construction notes real quickly and then uh talk some props nope wrong screen sharing the wrong [ __ ] that is all me here we go all right let's hop over to DraftKings let's throw the community contest lineup down in chat let's go ahead and do that right now actually look at that by the way Club could see is the highest average points of anybody in the community contest so uh if you're down there go ahead and talk your [ __ ] down there foreign that's the real Flex by the way right beauty contest I mean the highest average points uh that's the real Flex um I'm gonna go ahead and throw the community contest link down and chat for you guys of course it's the one dollar single entry uh get your lineup reviewed talk some [ __ ] right try and make some money in the process but I mostly brought it up so that we can go through some lineup construction notes so if you're building your lineups this week let me show you how easy it is to take like two of these top end players so let's throw ROM into a lineup let's throw hovland in two um two guys right 10K plus this week you're down to 7 100 remaining you may go oh well that means you can't take anyone in this mid-tier range right you know those differentiation pieces you were talking about Luke you can't even take one well let me show you you can go ahead and still take Wyndham Clark and I'll show you how you go down here and you take a Kirk idiom it's that easy your back up to seven Grand remaining you find a guy in the 6K range you like to I mean there's there's a bunch of options uh you have to throw a Denny McCarthy in there for the heck of it and you take your favorite option at 7 400 bucks I mean this kind of lineup even if you took Rio right you left zero salary on the table I know it's maybe going to be duplicated once in this large field GBP hopefully zero times right there's a chance that it's maybe one of like one or two duplicates and you just deal with that if you really want to make sure that you're not duplicated right start from Taylor Moore right and take somebody from there on down in the pricing right leave the 200 on the table with three maybe even four pivots in this kind of lineup rates three in this lineup um if you were to take like a pivot down here you can get away with that right especially if you have a little bit of salary left on the table so I know people were like asking about leaving like 2K on the table so like maybe with your last pick here going down to the 5K range and trying to play somebody I just think that's overdoing it right like if you were gonna go down maybe you leave like 600 700 on the table here with like a Putnam or a Brendan Todd but that's what I I wouldn't do anything past that like maybe a shank right you really like shank or English obviously those are plays that I like this week so maybe I would just slightly push it a little bit further but like at the most like 1K on the table right if we took Harris English with our last spot here right that would be a thousand dollars on the table like that's I think that would be very aggressive with leaving salary if you're playing cash this week um call 1-800 Gambler uh no just kidding if you if you're playing cash this week and I don't see a massive Edge to be had I would probably be a little bit more balanced in the cash lineup I try to avoid some of these like 5K players if I was playing in cash but yeah it's it's pretty damn degenerate if you're going out there and you're playing cash this week it just doesn't feel like a large Edge to be had in effect with PGA DFS these days doesn't feel like a great slate in general to be playing a cash contest so we'll leave it at that for DFS we'll go over to any questions um any letter left for the DFS side and then after that um we'll talk props so if you're hopping on out of here right now you're done with the DFS talk you don't do props appreciate you hit the like button on the way out as well it does show up for our live streams for showdowns for rounds two through four I'll be doing the same thing talking Showdown and props there for Friday through Sunday so look forward to that enough best of luck this week but uh I know a lot of you sweaty try hards out there are ready for first off a few questions to get answered out here for DFS and then out prop side which has just been I I we talk about it all the time that it's a print Fest for the props but it literally is like it's not just me saying that like a lot of talents out there like oh this will be a print Fest this week they go out there they lose money on their laps like no literally I've taken out in terms of props over fifty thousand dollars just this year from props let alone last year was all into the six figures right I mean we're it's literally a print Fest when it comes to props um thoughts on sepstraka his irons caught fire last Sunday and he's in really good form Chris so um I'd like him as a flyer the issue is that he's one of the earlier tee times so if you are looking at the weather Edge uh that's probably going to hurt his chances a little bit but uh I'm okay playing them regardless right it's only going to be for like an hour or two that's an issue anyways um you like Tom Kim thoughts not a huge Tom Kim guy this week for me it's the uh off the T play that worries me right he's accurate but not very long but it's it's PGA DFS guys play well at golf courses that don't fit their games well don't let that talk you off of them you totally fine playing Tomkin he's been playing really well of late do I like Taylor Moore he [ __ ] the bit on Sunday but finished strong uh I do like them this week Antonio because he played Mo last week and he's been playing well for a few weeks now yet still came in he's lower owned than like Lee Hodges by like four or five percent that was enough for me first round leader I don't have any hot takes for you but I would save me though if you're trying to bet one I don't hate the later tee times I mentioned perhaps the guys going out later getting the better end of the spectrum like they're gonna have slightly lower wins uh it's not going to rain during play right for the guys going off late like maybe you take a I'll give you one here well well I'll give you one name okay it'd be like one of these late guys right if you're if you're trying to narrow it down I would take one of the late guys I'm trying to find you one that's just like a crazy long shot because it's probably not going to hit right uh let's be honest there's 50 players picking the the best score at a 50 is a two percent proposition but let's go Tony Fino if you're gonna bet anyone that pmwave just randomly Tony Fino reason why I say that by the way is uh if he just catches heat with that putter instant version later um can you give us my Ryder Cup team I love it Antonio and I absolutely will so if I was putting together my us team right now um the automatic qualifiers I you know honestly pencil them in let's just talk about the bubble right only the only only people that matter right on the team are the ones that are just hardly going to get in so uh if I were gonna pick the team and it's not like who I think is actually going to get picked 100 Brooks is on the team even if he doesn't automatically qualify uh which I think he's got a really high chance to automatically qualify but let's just say the hypothetical that he got pushed out for some reason uh he would 100 million percent be a captain inspect and I do think that Zach Johnson will pick him if that happens by the way but on top of that I would pick Bryce and D shinbo for the Ryder Cup team if I was running it and I would pick Dustin Johnson and I know a lot of people are going to disagree with that I do not really give a [ __ ] I watch every single Live Tour event I know how it works I can I first off their form over there is ridiculous for both of those players and they've shown up at Ryder cups in the past and absolutely killed it um DJ's been quoted as being the best Ryder Cup teammate in U.S history by multiple players um azinger as one of the co-captains had said that multiple times about him um players agreed with that so DJ for me I know the form is not like insane but he's like a shoe-in for the team because of the other stuff like what he does outside of the plane and I think that makes him so important so I would have those two on the team which means he'd have to kick out um a few guys on the bubble right so for me Keegan Bradley not a Ryder Cup player Lucas Glover not a Ryder Cup player JT definitely not a Ryder Cup player um I love JT he's one of my favorite players by the way he's just he should not be on that team um who else Max Homa I don't think should be on the team unless he plays really well this weekend at East Lake um those may be a little bit of hot ticks that's my take on the situation I think that Denny McCarthy making the team would be ludicrous I think that is there any other like bubble guys I guess to worry about I think Sam Burns making the team is like 50 50 to me like if they're not going to take in by the way they're not going to take Bryson I I know I and or DJ I mentioned them as I mentioned DJ 100 right being on the team maybe Bryson they're not going to take either one I can just tell you that I don't think Zach Johnson will pick either one of those two but that's where Sam Burns comes in right like he'll probably make the team because of that and then Keegan Bradley he probably makes the team especially if he plays well this week um because they're not going to take those kind of players so it's a tough one man tough one for sure so that's your current lineup on what are my thoughts let's see so it's on FanDuel right so you can go kind of crazy with the top end options looks like a pretty good lineup man Henley thoughts I think he's a decent player this week James one of the last players out of my pole um just because I couldn't play everybody but if anyone that's a shorter player um is going to get it done here it's an elite accuracy guy like Henley right he's number one on the tour and accuracy has Scotty become a Bonafide Luke list world-class ball Striker or putter I don't know if I'd put him in that category he still has a few Spike weeks uh Luke you know Luke list is lucky to have one two Spike rounds um a year let alone uh one two Spike weeks so I'm not sure if we're there yet you were surprised to see after the math there's still like 15 mil combinations from a 50 pole um for sure yeah there's a lot of different combinations but there's only so many playable combinations that's the issue issue self right you go in there and you do 60 choose six whatever it is sorry 526 you get like 15 15 million right no one's going to play the ones that are like all five thousand dollar golfers or all the ones that are like four or 5K golfers and then one 10K golfer right you have to do playable combinations which there are ways to solve for that by the way um those playable combinations are way way way lower I mean I'm talking in the magnitude of like a hundred of thousand right as compared to 15 million so respect the stats work self but that's a more nuanced question than that that's why there's less combinations than I think you realize um Ben Swizz thoughts on your lineup I think it's decent Ben um I'm not going to tell you like who to play or who not to play but I can just tell you that you know on FanDuel you've got a few pieces that are going to give you differentiation right Putnam kirayama should be relatively low owned but uh yeah it's up to you man there's guys up top they look like good players so I have no issues with them but uh in terms of like construction no issues what's going on you've got Homa Clark and Fowler under 71 and a half yeah I don't agree with that boss I think it's gonna play really hard tomorrow if I had to guess a scoring average I'd guess like two over par um the reason why I say I wouldn't recommend that either gust is that like on the sports books um you're gonna get like a good idea of what they're expecting tomorrow so let me go ahead and just refresh it for you here let's see what we've got on those bets so maybe they've turned in your favor I would have no issues with them so with fricky I have no issues with 71 and a half on him so I got him a jock Market on the same number so 71 and a half of Ricky I'm fine with 71 I'm not so it depends on what site you're on I know an underdog I think he's like 70 and a half right so like I wouldn't want to take his under on this sort of site but if you're getting the 71 and a half number that you can see here on DraftKings I don't hate that the issue is that's minus 140 right so if you're going to get on a prop site where you can get like minus 110 odds like you get on most of like the prize picks Underdog kind of sites um it's pretty close to like a minus 110 implied odds don't hate it but maybe not at minus 140. and who are the other ones you have a homo and clerk right Homa I don't hate either at that at 71 and a half at least I don't hate it I took his fate at 70 and a half so a guy like is over at a stroke lower obviously but like if you're gonna get a better number on it don't think it's horrible see where's Max at is he not on the board he might not be they don't have everyone up that are on blind yeah they don't have them up right now but like just for I guess a little bit of perspective Windham Clark right he's pretty much even money at 71 and a half I'm okay with it like what what did I take for a fade on window let me double check can't give everyone all my slips obviously so let me double check on that so I have his under fantasy points actually so I don't think I hate that at all if 71 and a half because with my calculation it was like if he shot 70 or worse he went under on fantasy points but that was me assuming that he's probably gonna shoot like a 70 or 71 so yeah I don't I don't hate that at all gusts I think that makes sense it'll it's going to be hard out there tomorrow so it's going to be a hell of a sweat I can just tell you that much you're going to be sweating buckets the entire time um with these bets because it's going to play hard because of the wind this it's going to be real Gusty out there tomorrow uh let's see what else we've got is Roger's gonna cook we'll see I I hope so it's 5 500 bucks I'm using him as a random flyer value play so probably not dj 50 last Ryder Cup exactly and Bryson I think was like three one and one or something you think Harmon or Clark are automatically in yeah I think that's true too why do they have so many automatic qualifiers and why are they so centered around the majors from just this season right like for me a major championships matter don't get me wrong but just like winning a major championship shouldn't be enough to get on the Ryder Cup team so like for harm and especially it's a little egregious for me Wyndham Clark at least went out there also won the Wells Fargo right so he has that going for him um but yeah I agree with you man of course that's a good point yeah it's uh you got to cut down those outcomes a little bit Patrick Reed 3-0 and Ryder Cup singles has been Rory Sergio Stenson ROM Casey I'm not even gonna name them all but yeah everyone right on the Euro team uh I actually kind of agree with that too I don't know if I'd put him on the team because of how he's played on live gotta say right I watch all the Live Events if I'm gonna talk up DJ if I'm gonna talk up maybe even who tra I didn't even mention Gooch before Gooch could probably be on the team too if we're being honest I'd rather have all of them over Patrick Reed just because Reed hasn't been playing as well over there but you bring up a really good point with the track record right it might not matter right like Poulter shows up to Ryder cups playing like complete [ __ ] and then kills it can you deep dive power real quick he's too good of a player to be playing this bad I agree with you let me bring up the stats over here but I'm playing them for a bounce back at least I'm hoping that he snaps out of it but yeah let's look at how he's been playing it's not been good he's losing pretty much across the board uh slight Gainer with the putter there point four strokes and then over the last 36 you can see it's kind of similar in fact he's only gaining 0.1 Strokes at the flat stick uh I hope he I definitely hope that he snaps out of it but it's been a prolonged issue for Sheamus it's been like two three months of course I got you just wanted to see my general Vibe yeah it makes sense for me Ben uh sometimes people come in here just like asking you know for picks and whatnot which I'll give a few but yeah just more than anything right you gotta like your own lineup right that's why I answer that sort of way and uh in terms of How It's constructed your line makes plenty of sense so uh cheers and best of luck boss thoughts on thigala talented player at least in my opinion not the best course fit right he deals with issues with driving accuracy um he's also not like an elite tier bomber right so it's not like he's the type of guy that gets away with um not being very accurate um I'm very bullish on them I place to hit the gala a lot more than other people but not this week let's see thanks for the info of course gust let's talk some props now let me bring up the prop sites and uh A lot's been bumped I have to say bump picks Underdog we've got to think of a way to to make fun of them for bumping props too uh they've been at it all week I already have in 14 cards over here on Underdog I've met 28 of the 33 players uh that they have up on the board here all for Fades when they opened this board it looked a lot different than it does now um just for a few reference points right they had sex rocket like three bogeys he's the whole way up to four now right they opened guys like a Victor hovland what did he take for him I think it was Strokes he opened it like 69 and a half Strokes now he's only up to 70 so in fact he's actually one of the ones that's only been bumped up by 0.5 so if you're gonna take anything as of right now it's probably those kind of plays it just to give you an idea why right he's at 70 Strokes let's look at his prop over here on DraftKings he's at 70 and a half right so 0.5 higher and these minus 140 towards the over right so not only are you getting a minus 140 juice there you're also getting the 0.5 discrepancy so that's why I know we got the question before about like taking unders on 71 and a half I just prefer fading it because not only are you getting the juice in your direction you're also getting a few discrepancies like what we have right here so we'll be able to slip together here for the live stream I think that's the best prop available as of right now but like a John ROM was at 69 Strokes or he got bumped up Xander was at 69 and a half he got bumped up an entire stroke over there in Underdog uh Jordan Spieth 69 and a half to 70 and a half Ricky Fowler same thing Patrick kaneley's only been bumped up by 0.5 so if yeah again what is cantley's odds just to give you a reference point where are you at Patty ice I know they've got Patty ice on here okay so he's actually Juiced towards the under right at 70 and a half but he's 0.5 higher right so still I think maybe the Victor Haven prop a little bit better than the Patty ice one but I'm still definitely leans towards the over let's find you another one here so yeah again they've bumped like everything actually do they take the Justin Rose one off yet so they still have them at 71 and strokes what are his odds so he's 71 and a half even money okay so maybe not quite the prop I was hoping for but it still is a 0.5 discrepancy so it's not it's not a horrible prop I just wish they didn't bump everything because I have like 28 props that I've taken guys it's just none of them exist anymore literally every single one of them bumped different [ __ ] props I took and I know I only had 14 cards so you're like oh 28 props I literally only used um each prop one time and then they moved so it's not like I was spamming cards either so they have Tommy at three bogeys over here in prize picks and they have a lot of these like mid-tier players like a Jason day at four bogeys so what is Jason day is he at three and a half probably is knowing how they praise this board where's JD okay so he's at three and a half bogeys that's definitely something we might be able to take and then down here with Lucas Glover they've gone about three and a half too right they're both at four bogeys over here on prize picks so that's probably not a horrible idea but we can line shop a little bit more maybe there's some low-hanging fruit that wasn't there before they've got Clark same thing I think I'd rather take a one of these two personally let's see what else the birdie Fades aren't really a thing the uh fantasy score Fades used to be a thing until they bump down a bunch of them um in fact this Lucas Glover one I know they already bumped this one down a little bit I don't think they've bumped it enough so let's change the bogey prop over here to a fantasy score prop and we might be able to actually make this a three-man here for the stream slip I know it's normally a two-man that we go with but we might be able to make this one a three-man maybe even a four man who knows like a little frisky with it out here um let's see any any other props that just stand out after all these damn bumps I'm looking at the par 3 props right now personally the uh they do have a decade at 12 anyone else I just want to get our options here I know it's mostly like Elite tier players they've got at 12. yeah like Scotty Rory ROM P's a really good par three player so they've got him at 12. all right let's do this so if you're on stream you haven't entered anything here for round one yet I can't enter the slip I've already maxed out all these players um I'd probably entered this I'm sure I don't hate the idea of it at all um again Jason day is 0.5 higher over on prize picks he really struggles on these courses with long rough or at least uh at this golf course last time right you lost like nine Strokes ball striking Victor Holland once again he's .5 higher and Juice towards the over Lucas Glover 19.75 fantasy points um he's at 71 and a half Strokes right look at the other guys at 71 and a half Strokes that's why it's such a good prop 17.55 18.25 right 17.25 he's two fantasy points higher than all the guys at the same projections as him like how's that make sense right like that obviously that's value to take advantage of so I threw that in there and then the one let's just take the Hideki one out actually I'd probably rather run this as just like a straight three man these three props but either way I think they're all free value if you do want to make it the four man and throw in Hideki by all means go ahead and do so that one's just a little bit more up to pin locations right and we don't have those as of yet at least I haven't looked at the pin locations yet um speaking of I'll check on Twitter see if we have those uh but yeah until we see those pin locations might hold off on that side that this PGA Tour comes up see nope no pin locations that's kind of unfortunate alrighty if that's the case let's bring up some prize picks and uh then we'll hop on out of here I know we're past our hour time that we normally go but I still want to go through some prize picks for everyone out there so what I was looking at today for prize picks is I took some overs or greens and regulation now they've bumped a good amount of the board to compensate but my thinking here right is I know that there's going to be windy conditions but we've got softer greens right in in 2020 when this course played firm and fast you still had over 10.4 grains of Regulation per round um for the field so with softer greens right even with windy conditions you'd think that it'd be at least the same if not better right so I'm projecting for right around 11 gir per round which for somebody like Cam Davis who opened it nine and a half you had guys like Scotty who opened it 11 greens same thing with Colin murakawa I was quick to hit their overs if I was still bending their overs which I'm I'm not going to force these in I already have a good amount of exposure for what I'm looking for I'd probably try and take a few more guys that are just right Elite tier consistent ball Strikers so these two stand out this Trail had my Boy Harley over on Discord uh pointed out to me a few days ago he was able to cover this in all four rounds there in 2020 so with softer greens right you'd probably think that he could do it again Rory even though the ball striking early in the year wasn't great he's now top 20 on the PGA tour when it comes to green and regulation percentage um which early in the year he was like number 120. so he's uh come a long a long way when it's come to the iron play of late and uh if you're a little late to the party when it comes to prize picks I'd consider taking those two right soft greens they are teeing off later which once again I said the worst conditions are going to be really uh early in the day right the first like hour or two of play when worse conditions are going to be so by targeting guys like Rory and a trollhan um you're able to get the guys going off slightly later and in slightly better wind conditions so I would take those as of right now of course on my patreon guys I'm posting a lot more props but like the more Cabo the sheffler ones right they get bumped up 0.5 now it's not bumped up immediately like they do over there on Underdog sometimes Underdog is the quickest with the bumps by far but uh yeah within like an hour I believe these were bumped last time so just it's annoying it's just how these Sports books work and I know technically right these aren't Sports books but they sure like to act like them that's for damn sure so yeah look at this they got Victor at 71 Strokes right he's a 70 over here just to give you an idea right Lucas Glover by the way he's at like 72 Strokes on prize picks clicking the wrong tab look at this he's uh where's Lucas Glover at yeah look at 72 Strokes right so that that's obviously a good fade uh he's that even higher projection than the 71 and a half and then Jason day what if they've got Jay day at 72 Strokes too right and we're getting him from over three bogeys so you're telling me that means that he's uh not gonna make more than three and a half bogeys when he's gonna shoot two over par maybe even three over par like get get real right so these fades for sure I think are the way to take advantage of the board uh if you're gonna take any unders right and you're gonna be like you know what I don't think it's gonna play as difficult as what other people are expecting do it on the sports books I think you can get some pretty decent odds particularly for like plus money overs I'm sorry sorry plus money unders on a few players in a few circumstances um or go over here on the prize picks um and you can probably play the board that way too right there's probably a few unders to consider like a cam Davis under maybe not the worst idea like a Tony female maybe not the worst idea for an under they've got Clark there uh I believe Homa right um in Fowler right yeah I know Gus Carter was acting asking about those ones before it's not like the worst idea in human history like they even have Jordan Spieth at 71 and a half right is he 70 um he's a whole stroke lower over here on underdog let's see where is Jordan it's just tight let's make it easier to find them huh yeah yeah 70 and a half like I don't hate the idea of taking a few of these unders but with this weather forecast I just can't do it right we'll refresh this for like the third time now make sure it hasn't changed on us but until this weather forecast changed I just can't do it right look at this it's windy the entire day in fact the wind gusts on H Triple R um this just updated 27 minutes ago got even worse the conditions are going to be even worse there for tomorrow than what we had before the winds don't die down during the storm now you still have that solid like 13 to 15 miles an hour the entire day and then 20 to 30 mile an hour wind gusts I mean it looks like it's going to be a whole lot of fun I can say that much that's what makes it tough to take any sort of unders like I see the value right like I I see these guys tearing up the golf course if the winds die it's just you're almost making a calculated bet that that happens and I just I I don't know if that's gonna happen I'm not a meteorologist let's see also that you go through and answer everyone of course no matter what the questions are uh recent sub and plan on being you being here forever well uh appreciate that Ben you have a cat in your profile picture I'm a big cat person you'll see them jumping around the live stream here sometimes so cheers to that man glad to have you you asked about power because he's literally the last option for a top 20. um he's plus 370 plus 360 sorry I don't know what the hell I'm reading out here gaming a six to a seven let's see I don't have like a simulation up in front of me I don't have like my top 20 percentage sheet um up in front of me right now Antonio but I don't know if plus 360 is enough it feels like plus 500 like it's just me spitballing right again I don't have the sheet of feels like I'd want like plus 500 though how many guys under 7K do I have in my pool one second I'll count them up for you boss so you said under 7K right a bunch under seven but I'll give you a count so one two three four five six seven eight nine nine players under 7K this week so a good amount of my player hole is a combination of talent and Faith versus winds I hear you I hear you it's uh it's possible gust right especially with the receptive greens but uh when the sports books that are making those hundreds of millions of dollars are saying one thing I was thinking the same thing by the way early in the week I was like you know this course is going to play Easier right I still think for Friday through Sunday it's a hundred percent gonna play Easier right it's just that those wins they're they're tough man especially when they're 30 mile an hour wins um do I think Scotty should pinch Lucas clever's butter I think that he should yes I think that they should ban anchoring by the way and we're at the end of the live stream now where I know only the gulf hardos are here so I'll hit you with another hot take anchoring the putter should be banned and Lucas Glover anchors the putter there's the hot take I said it I do not care what he does is illegal it is as shady as Shady can get out there on the golf course that includes Windham clerk that includes Ricky Fowler who does the same thing in anyone who uses that just atrocious looking putter out there I ordered one it gets here in two days I'm gonna try it out on the golf course I'm a horrible horrible putter if I go out there and using that if I putt better than I did before they should ban them on the PJ tour because if a hack like me can use a putter like that and start to make is like eight to ten Footers then they should not be legal like flat out like there's zero skill involved with putting if that's going to be the case so um Zeus just threw down a fireball outside my house Apparently one of the more loud lightning bolts that I've heard down here in Florida for a while so I don't know if he liked that take but it's true I think it's cheating what courses are similar to this Winged Foot I think also Oak Hill rain terms of major championships are similar to what we get here but in terms of what you see every year on tour the Memorial tournament so like Jack's Place similar Agronomy really deep rough and uh small sloping greens um are all like commonalities across those maybe if Glover's cheating why doesn't everybody use it people are starting to Antonio like first off it was what like Cebu Kim that changed right and then you saw another player change to it I think it was Keegan right who like first started flashing with it a year and a half ago then you saw siwoo change to it and now there's like five six players that in the last three months have done it Antonio so you have players are starting to do that Ricky wasn't using that three months ago Wyndham Clark wasn't using that putter four or five months ago in Wyndham by the way an elite putter before that and even he changed to it because he saw how much easier it was to putt with now you got Lucas Glover using it you've got guys like um Scotty right Rory that are now using a mallet style putter I'm telling you something's going on there dude it's those people aren't just changing putter their livelihood for no reason right it's it's because obviously something's working there so I can give you some first-hand experience I'll be trying it soon what is the strength of my golf game so I don't have many strengths to be frank I have not played much golf in the last month or so um just really haven't made the time for it I wish I have my uh Club Championship on Saturday so uh that's gonna be fun luckily it's a team event so I'll have my brother to carry me but irons for sure really good iron player um I'm a fuel player I'm not somebody that goes out there and grinds on their golf swing whatsoever I'm very good at manipulating my golf ball so whether it's moving it left to right right to left up and down I'm really good at flighting my golf ball and it's all just creativity and feel for me right if I hit a low shot and move the ball in the back of my stance I feel like I'm dragging my hands a little bit lower through the golf swing and the ball goes low right for me it's not like a checklist that I go through before I hit the ball so people ask me like Luke what's your swing thought I literally don't have one my swing thought is visualizing what the golf ball is going to do right the ball fight and whatnot and then executing Matt golf swing so my strength is uh my lack of thoughts on the golf course I am a I'm just a react kind of player put seven dollars on can't play to win Sunday morning at the end of regulation you were stupid not to cash out yeah I could see that that's crazy you wanted the 200 there uh if if I was in that situation I don't know what I would have done but hey I'll just say Rick hindsight is a [ __ ] hindsight's 50 50. uh don't beat yourself up about that right he could have very easily have won the golf tournament you would love to see Scotty switch to the long putter could you imagine look dude I'm telling you Antonio in the next few weeks if you start to see guys especially because like the off season's coming up you know in the fall like people aren't playing as much if we come back next year and everyone is using like the long Putters I Told You So Okay because they're gonna have the time to make the change then and I think if everyone's gonna start switching over it's gonna be then when you see it right and like people after the Ryder Cup have the time to work on it it would be hilarious and I think they would ban it if that happens if Woodland switches to the long Putter and he starts training eight to ten Footers then man it literally he might that's the thing like at this point Antonio what do they have to lose they see somebody like Glover who is literally the worst Potter I may have ever seen other than maybe Will's alotors from like five to ten feet who's making like 25 Footers now draining par putts from 30 feet now to win golf tournaments I can guarantee you that people are going to consider changing it and at the very least try the change it might not work out right they're going to practice with it before they implement it and play but they're at least going to give it a whirl that's for damn sure that's all I've got for the live stream guys Zeus is throwing down Thunderbolts outside so uh I think we might lose internet connection here soon but I appreciate all the support here on the channel as per usual hit that like button on the way out of here and make sure you stop on by for our round two through four streams I'll be talking about Showdown props over there for Friday and Sunday and uh be ready to get right back after it so best of luck out there hope to see your names at the top of a few gbps and let's get this cash this week