Tour Championship Round 4 DFS Preview + Live chat: Draftkings Showdown, Underdog + Prize Picks Props

e e e e e e [Music] [Music] welcome on in golf fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our DFS embedding live stream for round four of the Tour Championship whether you're watching this live with us or over there on the replay crew I appreciate you guys stopping by to get all of the info out there for tomorrow's slate and I'll make sure to go out there and bring you guys the goods out there for Sunday so going to cover everything out there for tomorrow's slate so whether it's the weather look at the DFS side ownership out there for all 30 players something that we're going to talk about here together and over there on the underdog and prize pick side whether you're looking for some prop advice out there for Sunday we're going to have you covered there too so we'll go through some pin locations a little bit of a look at the stat averages out there for Saturday all of that to help you out there with your process so the one thing here is going to be a little bit quicker a little bit more concise this time around as I have an earlier dinner reservation tonight as uh we going to early start with the golf it's 10:00 a.m. also a 10 a.m. checkout time out here with the Airbnb so uh got to keep things moving a little bit quicker out here but hopefully you guys are having a fantastic Saturday yourselves or having a good week when it comes to your golf exposure and as I said they ready to get after it out here for Sunday's action but go ahead and start it off first off with a look at our presenting sponsor which of course are our friends over there at the shipit nation shipit Nation are a great source for all your needs with DFS not just what we have over here on the golf side so whether it's over there with football in a few weeks we've got basketball NASCAR uh all those different sports that you see on the screen right there covered over there by the shipit nation crew so if you're somebody that is playing a wide variety of sports they're a great resource that won't price gal you out there that you can use for all of that kind of content so make sure to check them out if you guys haven't already use code Luke 10 out there for a discount off any membership and as I said they're presenting sponsor of the live stream and uh an awesome crew that they have over there on that side what's going on Joseph says yo ly can Kawa Do It um and uh dinner was great by the way I I enjoyed it last night I've got to say first night's dinner was by far the best that was Italian I'd say last night was number two and then believe it or not that restaurant that I really liked was number three it just wasn't as good this time around didn't hit the same out here in 2024 so we'll have to see how tonight's dinner ends up shaping up but uh tonight's dinner rather than a steakhouse is a seafood based restaurant so we'll have to see um how they compare out there to the different restaurants but uh has been a great stay up here in Atlanta great Hospitality nothing I can say to complain about the time up here um other than uh it's been hot up here the last four days so definitely a little bit exhausted after the weekend but super excited to see what happens out there tomorrow and uh to get the football season out there for next week so of course Thursday Night Football we got that to look forward to the entire season out here it's a it's a good time to be a sports fan so it is a little bit Bittersweet towards the end of the golf season but uh at least it coincides with a happy time of the year out there with Football let's talk about this golf course from today which definitely got a little bit harder out there for round three now we mentioned on live stream that the pin locations look a little bit stiffer out there for Saturday but I thought they might move up a t- box or two out there on hole number eight or 17 and we didn't really get that and in fact on the par 3es rather than moving them up making them a little bit more scorable out there for moving day um they were pretty hard all things considered so you can see the scoring average went up a little bit compared to days one and two round one was about two and a half under was about 2.27 under there in round two and then today it was only about 1.6 under par so obviously trending towards you know maybe a one and a half underpar score and on Sunday if they move up hole number eight or move up number 17 maybe it does get back to a whole two strokes under but you'd have to imagine that they're going to be pretty tricky pin locations just like they used out there for Saturday so I think for tomorrow it's going to be much of the same of what we saw out there for today which was a slightly higher bogey rate a little bit harder scoring to come by and unless they do move up eight or 17 it's probably going to be about a one and a half underpar scoring average but we do have to put the asterisk on it as moving up either one of those two holes but have a pretty drastic effect out there on the scoring and coincidentally also the birdie average out there for round four so so that's what I'll say about the course in terms of weather again trying to keep this one a little bit quicker out here it's going to be flat right as we've said for the entire week when you have 30 players it's going to be next to impossible to go out there and find an edge especially when a majority of the play tomorrow is going to be under three mil an hour of sustained wind so you they're starting earlier as well if you didn't hear the broadcast out there from PGA tourcom they're going to be starting at 10: a.m. local time as opposed to around 12: or um even 10000 p.m. like you had for some guys out there today um it's going to be an earlier start because of some potential storms in the afternoon which might make things a little easier as the course might be slightly more receptive earlier in the day but it's not going to lead to an edge between like the early or the late guys so we're still going to have to consider some late starters because there are placement points in play but that's not why we're going to be shading towards that side of the player pole um the guys up top are they're going to be getting placement points they're starting up there in the top five top 10 that's why we're probably going to have slightly more of those players out there in our lineups as compared to some of the early starters and not so much that they're getting the better side of condition so that's I'll say about the course uh we'll Circle back to uh some of these scoring averages birdie averages all that when we talk about props but let's talk through the DFS side and uh as I said go ahead through any questions that you have down in chat but we're going to go through this one rather quickly as as I said I got to get out of here in about 25 minutes and I'm going to make sure that we could touch on everything um maybe not in full this time but at least right make sure we touch on all those important topics so let's start off with our plays out here for Showdown which again this isn't out here just to give you guys a player Poll for tomorrow but more so to tell you guys or you know guide you through your process of selecting your player poll which there should be different factors that you're looking at to go out there and find the best plays and out there for Sunday Showdown it's a little bit different than what we had for rounds two and three rounds two and three a lot of it was about ceiling potential about there about raw scoring um averages Raw scoring projection out there for rounds two and three rounds four you still have that raw scoring component which is by the way like 34s to maybe even 80% of your scoring out there for Sunday but then you have that other 20 maybe 25% that are placement points that are a huge factor for main slate we talk about that every single week but for Sunday Showdown are also a massive factor that we have to consider and uh so the reason why you know Scotty shuffler up top despite being 50% owned is in my player po is because if he goes out there and he shoots like minus four tomorrow that goes out there and wins this event there's going to be a you know next to no chance that he's not in the optimal lineup um there are other guys you could say that about that are starting up there in the top five that go out there shoot someone like minus four minus five for sure would be a dead lock out there to be optimal if they're going to get those placement points which top five is like five six placement points up there for the premier spots first place I believe is like 12 uh might be 13 points that you're getting out there for first place either way it's about like two and a half birdies you're getting out there for getting the guy that finishes in first you're getting some of those top five finishers it's like getting an extra Birdie on top of their score so if they're shooting minus four that's why I said minus five is like a first sure lock it's like them going out there and having a minus six rounds so that's why that matters it's why especially for like the large field gbps the large field contest it matters to go out there and try and get the winner maybe a few other guys in that top five but it's not the end all be allall so you're going to see if you like Scotty that I'm out there using that are relatively High owned but then you're also going to see guys that don't have that top five potential that I'm playing because of the fact that they can go out there and just go out there and raw score which is still a factor out there in your Sunday lineup so Scotty of course would be an example of a piece of chalk that I'm eating which would be hard not to want to look at when he has that five shot lead so he's about 50.5% owned you can see all of the ownership on the screen by the way so if you're curious about any ownership numbers well you've got all of them up there at your disposal just let me know if you need me to scroll up or down to get you to what you're looking for so um Scotty I think it's pretty straightforward I don't think we have to talk about that one all that much I am playing on Mid lineups despite that high ownership number Rory maav down here at $9,500 would be an example of a slightly lower own play um wouldn't be a diamond in the rough right you're still paying a whole $99,500 out there for Rory he's also still1 18.1% known so uh still definitely a lot of people that are still playing him in lineups but Sunday Rory when he's out of contention has shown us plenty of upside out there in the past and um you've seen it before right when he's in contention he can go the complete opposite direction but you give them like no chance to go out there and actually win the golf tournament and sometimes it's like you're looking at Prime Tiger Woods so I'm going to play Rory in this kind of scenario um I considered in know bear as uh one of the highlighted plays on this extrem um there's a few other guys in this range like even Hideki at minus 12 you can see he's only about 19.9% owned so any of these sort of plays can be an oar a Rory Ori are going to fit that same kind of mold over here they're not going to get you a ton of Leverage out there in your lineups but at the same time they are going to give you a little bit of differentiation compared to some of these chalkier um guys starting in the top five top 10 so those chalkier options as you can see on here be guys like a Sam burn turn at Windom Clark um if you go up a little bit further con morava starting in second um is definitely a little bit more popular as you guys could have probably guessed ahead of time um so if you're looking to get a little bit different off of those sort of options a Rory even though 18.1% isn't low owned out there by any means is low owned when you look at him in comparison to some of the other plays so um that's what I'll say about the Sunday Showdown is that you shouldn't be playing all of the chalk up top and in fact you know Scotty is one of the a few chalky guys that I'm using out there in my lineups out of a Colin out of a Sam Burns Windam clerk Adam Scott and then saah theala down here at $7,600 I believe I'm only playing one of those options and if I end up playing anything more than one I think it was two at most that I took out of those like five chalky options and I believe at least if memory serves me correctly that my initial player pool only has one of those guys out there in my player poll so um just because I'm using a Scotty right using them as a highlighted play here does not mean that I'm mixing in all of that chalk towards the top so you know if you're going to take somebody as a conviction play starting with a bunch of ownership just commit to them play them in at least two-thirds of your lineups maybe even like 70 75% and in the case of the Scotti you might even want to argue for going out there and locking them at every single lineup moving down a little bit further you've got a $ 7800 Victor havland and the price tag I think says enough right there I mean he's just far far too cheap for the kind of upside that he brings and that's why I think Scotty sheffler lineups are going to be so easy to build and why he's up there at a whole 50% ownership and also why am moraba is still 40% owned himself I think because of how soft the pricing is and uh I guess we'll go through this before I mention why I like morawa is because you have guys like havland at 7,800 I mean you've got guys at 7 Grand 7100 that are guys that are normally 8,500 to n grand out there at Major champ championships because you have that kind of value on this showdown pricing if you wanted to give Scotty and then a whole $10,000 more Kawa as your second man in it's not as infeasible as it would be for most Showdown slates so I think that if you wanted to go that direction I guess you could with a Victor hins but I like him even if I'm not going with that double chalky spend up uh like I said I'm not playing morawa out there in my lineups so somebody like Victor Holland at $7,800 is more so just a player that I'm using has a filler option uh cheaper right maybe opens up a little bit more salary with one of my other spots but a high upside high scoring player the kind of guy that is very aggressive that'll go after these pin locations and he's only about 18.5% owned you can see I got sah at about 31% a sunm here at minus 11 is somebody that has a slightly more reasonable ownership number uh definitely not low owned over there at 23.4% but what I like about Sanjay is that the ball striking stats have been pretty sustainable this week I got to see him out there in person looked a little bit off out there on his back nine but in general is the same kind of score as a lot of the other guys in this range if not maybe the best scorer of anyone at this mid 7ks and compared to sahith I've got their fantasy score projection which by the way if you're over there on the patreon page you can compare them over there it's about one and a half points off so yeah thala is projecting a little bit better because of his leaderboard position but it's not by very much and you can see over here he's like one and a half times higher round out there than a sun JM so for me if it's only going to be like a one Fantasy Point um projection difference out there between those two players um give me the guy that's only 23 maybe 24% owned as compared to the guy that might be 31 to 35% owned out there in gpps you've got some ownership on a Shane Lowry I guess that's worth pointing out um Aaron Ry 18.7% a lot of that it's just because of his price tag he's too cheap there at $6,900 a benan also start in towards you can't even say like the top end of the leaderboard but another guy that I think will get some ownership just based on the fact that he's a much better player than the price tag a few guys that I want to point out that I'm getting to are like an oxe for some differentiation and then also a Robert MacIntyre down low both players would normally be like $7500 in a major championship right like maybe seven grand out there in a showdown slate towards the weekend and now you're getting first off Mac at six grand and then a 66 $600 oé batia it just buys you so much flexibility towards the top end of the board so I think studs of Duds is especially viable on this sort of slate um when you have value options like that to go ahead and mix in and then even guys like Victor hland here at $7,800 so it's uh that kind of slate I think you can go studs and Duds if you'd like and if you're trying to get a little different with your lineup construction I think if you went balanced if you avoided the guys from like Colin Mo Caba up right avoided uh Scotty Xander Colin I think that you could get infinite leverage to the field now do I think that's a smart idea probably not given the composition of this leaderboard but if you did no one is going to be doing that as well so um just know that the the chalky build what most people are going to be doing um is going out there and probably taking a little bit more of a studs and Duds approach which personally I tend to agree with a little bit out there in my exposure so I'll be doing a lot of that out there in lineups and uh hopefully it gives you an idea of some of the exposure that I'm getting too in terms of building a few lineups together let's do that now give you an idea of what I'm thinking about when building lineups which uh is a lot right depending on which contest that I'm entering uh my thought process for a cash lineup is drastically different than what I'm doing out there for gbps so for the sake of this we're going to focus on the large field gpps uh the contest where you're trying to take down a rather large field uh because that's where most of you guys are entering your lineups uh some of you might be cash builds you know some of you might be out there and own only single enturies uh there's always going to be people that are doing their own thing out there but a vast majority of people that are watching my content and vast majority of DFS users in general are out there playing some of the larger field gpps whether you're 150 maxing some of you might just doing you know five to 20 lineups out there in those larger field contests you've really got to be considering your goal out there in those contests if it's a smaller field GBP maybe you're not as worried about finishing in first place um single that certainly might be the case right top five top 10 in a single entry is going to pay out rather nicely so in those kind of contests it's more about just playing the best plays so for the sake of a round four Showdown slate that' probably look like playing like four guys towards the top end of the board so good amount of chalk out there in that kind of contest and then maybe two guys where you're really making a stand against the field now what we're going to do here right is we're going to build a lineup out there for like large field gpp which is has to be a little bit more different so the the difference with the larg field gpp is that we're not just trying to go out there finish in like fifth or 10th we want to finish first place because of how topheavy those payouts are and then on top of that we also want to make sure that when we win or when we go out there and we select a really good player poll that we're not playing against 50 you know 60% of the field in a lot of cases and we also want to make sure that we're not duplicating yourself out there with other players so how we accomplish that is Maybe by only taking three guys that are starting up there towards the top end of the board maybe you have one that's starting towards the middle maybe it's only two leverage options down there towards the bottom but rather than being a little bit more chalk heavy than you would be in some of the smaller field contest large field GBP would have forc in some differentiation so they show you what that would look like um starting up top you can still use a Scotty shuffler in these kind of builds but that's where like an oar or a Rory would kind of work as a second man in now I wouldn't call this a true leverage option we're going to call this more like the midlevel filler that you can use but uh he's also not going to be a mega chalky guy that we have to worry about just for the sake of this video and I'm going to use a little bit more chalk than I probably would in lineups we're going to go down here and throw in a I guess theala there at $ 7600 we've got a Scotty at 50% we've got a just under 20% Rory we've got a a nearly actually I think maybe even a little bit over 30% own sah theala this is going to be AAR gpp lineup uh we've got our placement points between Scotty and thala pretty much right there um heck even ma right right might give us top three top five finishing position points goes out there and has the kind of round we're hoping for our last three spots here where we're going to get a little bit different so if you went with a McIntyre I think you could accomplish a lot of that uh if you went up here and went with benan you'd be doing that as well with guys that are under 15% for your last two spots this is where you might want to consider somebody like Henley as opposed to to a Shane Lowry um Lowry starting in eighth would be great from the placement Point position but in a large fi gpp that would also be taking on a lot of ownership so that's why I went with Henley as opposed to a Lowry there that's why I went with an an down low as opposed to some of uh maybe the more popular options like an Aaron rye and then for our last man in I don't know if you would have to leave a bunch of salary on the table here but I think leaving 100 maybe even $200 $300 on the table wouldn't be the worst idea out there in this kind of build uh I don't know if you have to force it in especially if it's not like the really big gppp out there for Sunday uh big $20 that they have out there for tomorrow um if it's in any sort of smaller field gppp maybe you could spend all your salary and take a horel um or leave $100 on the table and take an Aaron Ry but if you're entering in a 10,000 20,000 entry sort of contest you might want to force your hand here a little bit just because it is a 30 player field so um this week's a little bit than most it's a little bit wonky I know some people might be a little bit sick and tired of it now that we have football starting and whatnot but uh it's last round that we have to work with out here with this kind of format so that's what I'll say from the lineup construction stuff don't want to be too long- winded from that aspect of things but now going to focus over there on the prop side and uh bring you guys all the goods for that so in terms of props the course played a little bit harder than what we saw for days one and two um that was kind of to be expected but uh I would say maybe played a little bit harder than what most people were expecting and out there for Sunday they could throw us a little bit of a curveball as they mentioned out there with holes number eight and 17 but if they don't do that I would project the scoring average about one and a half under par um pins are likely going to be tricky especially on some of like the harder holes out there um the only curveball only difference I think we could really see with scoring would be if they went out there and they changed up what we had for the T boxes on a few of those holes so um that'll be something that I'm trying to really monitor out there tomorrow morning but in terms of conditions birdie average probably around four and a half per round I think that's a pretty good barometer U maybe goes back up to like 4.6 4.7 if they move up eight or 17 bulky average might even go up to like two and a half per round uh that would depend if they go out there and they move back some of the par three T boxes I think with the tricky pins uh that's why it's going to be a little bit higher than what you saw for days one and two Ferry average probably won't move much and then this green regulation average a lot of that is going to depend on what they do with the par 3s but it's likely going to be sub2 like you've seen for the last two rounds uh the real question is is whether it's like 11 and a half like you saw out there for round two um or 11 and a quarter or maybe even lower if they go out there and they make things a little bit more difficult so it's going to be tough to say that before we see the pin locations uh which Speaking of let me go ahead and see what they've got out there for Pins if they have them up we can do a little bit of a look through them again I've got to keep this one a lot quicker than normal um just because of the fact I've got dinner here but yeah no pin locations unfortunately I will be taking a look at those uh when we get those in an hour or so uh but unfortunately we'll be off live stream so for the sake of this let's go ahead just take a look at the underdog and prize pick boards and uh see what we're doing here and K I see you got a question down there we'll answer that here in a second uh you said do I like fow or hogy as a bounceback so so neither one are my favorite plays if I'm going to be completely honest with you um reason why I don't love hogi would be the ball striking stats the first few rounds um even Tony feno was maybe a little bit Rusty compared to his standards the first few days so they're not my favorite plays but what you are getting with both is average to below average ownership I would say that hogi for sure is going to be like sub 13 14% um maybe at most like right around 133% owns um somebody like F now maybe sell 15 16% owns out there at the very most they're going to be able to get some leverage out there on those sort of players so um they're not my favorite part of that is because of the stats that we've seen for the first three days but you don't always want to overreact to some of the shots gain metrics because there's a reason why they haven't played well the first three days right there's a reason why they're towards the middle to bottom end of leaderboard they're much better than that long term so for them to turn it around would not be that surprised is what I would say about those kind of players but in terms of what we're going to do here props I'm not sure if we have prop boards quite yet if we don't we can just talk about my general strategy which for Underdog and prize picks is likely going to be some overs on birdies particularly like for elite tier players uh I think even if they don't move up holes 18 or 17 that your Elite tier players are likely still going to average 4.75 maybe five birdies per round uh if the field average is about four and a half per round those Elite tier guys are going right about that sort of number um so if we get some decent four and a halfs I'll probably consider adding those over here in Underdog but at the same time also some overs on birdies um Bogies I should say sorry birdies yeah you already know that right like the overs at four and a half but for Bogies if we get some guys at two or maybe even some scrubs going off early at two and a half because the pins I think the T boxes might be a little bit trickier tomorrow at least um that's something that they typically do out there for Sunday on the PGA tour it might be like a two and a half boy average and for those guys going off early the guys that aren't playing well it might be like over a three bogey per round sort of average so I think that we could look for some overs on Bogies potentially even some overs on birdies at the same time um and it's kind of been that kind of week I mean you can see over here the average birdies and Bogies per round has been about seven Which is higher than your tour average normally it's about six maybe six and a half birdies and Bogies per round um sometimes it's even lower than that depending on the event that we're at this golf tournament a little bit more SC scoring volatility um sometimes you've seen it get to like seven and a half maybe eight out there for given tour events but uh seven is up there in like the top five or 10 out there in tour when it comes to the the lowest par average out there at a golf course so that's what I'll say about our strategy let me see what we got on prize picks so prize picks does have a board up which compared to the last few days is is surprising normally Underdog has been the first one to the to the party over here but let's refresh it maybe that's why you can see my location that's okay Underdog where we at though so still no board posted over there on that side but uh we do have some stuff posted over here on prize pick so thanks for saving us giving us a few lines to look at and of course ke I've got you down there it's a it's a slate for the hardcore fans it looks like it we've only got 22 live viewers here part of that probably because of the fact we have college football going on but if you're one of those 22 people here go ahead get those like THS up uh let's go ahead and uh hit the like button too if you're also watching this on replay I'm sure a lot of you probably going to tune in after some of the football games so if that's the case you know no bad intentions at all no bad feelings I should say towards you but uh go out there and smash the like button if you're part of that crew too let's see what we're doing here so on prize picks they've got guys at about the same numbers today if not maybe like 0. five higher in a few cases which I thought they'd be at least point5 higher out there with the scoring conditions but I don't know if they've adjusted like adjusted it enough right they've got guys over here at like one and a half under par which is the scoring average and a lot of these guys down here at 69 and a half are not average players so for example Chris Kirk a pavon was coming in like losing Two Strokes per round these are like clearly some of the top five worst players out there in this sort of field so if it's going to be about a one and a half underpar scoring average that would really be dependent on whether they move up whole 18 or whole number 17 if they don't some overs on Strokes here could make a little bit of sense let's look at the birdie stuff so I mentioned maybe some overs at four and a half but it have to be the right kind of player and what I'm seeing here is a lot of Scrubs at four and a half birdies so you've got uh your guys like Chris Kirk horel straa down there that kind of number um your best sort of players I guess you'd have to choose from would be your sjs the Galas maybe a Lowry Adam Scott you'd consider for an over at for and a half but these aren't the kind of guys that I'd be hoping to play for that kind of projection so I guess we'll have to see what Underdog ends up doing out there for their board but for strokes I think there could be some Fades out here in Strokes especially for like some of your lower tier guys and are T off early and uh that's not weather based that's just the fact that they're out of form also some of the lower tier guys on the field or even some UND on birdies out here for that same crew of players the early guys the out of form guys the lower tier play players to begin with because they don't have the kind of guys I'd want to take for like an over at four and a half birdies which is unfortunate so I think that uh when we get this Underdog board which could be posted at any second so that's why I uh keep refreshing it over here to see if we can potentially cover it out here together uh it's looking like Fades might be a little bit easier to find out there for tomorrow than what we're going to have out there for positive stance plays but if you're going to do anything out there for a positive stance play I think Sunday if you can find a really soft Strokes line of course go out there and take it but birdies or better is probably going to be the safer bet um I could be I could see a little bit more of Bogies out there Sunday um because of some of these pin locations so that would be my take out there for that given sleep see any questions looks like we're good to go on that so we're going to go ahead cut it off now it's 30 minutes exactly at my cut off point out here for this live stream so hopefully you found this quick little preview out there for Sunday helpful out there for your exposure and you're ready to go out there and crush it for everything thing that you're doing so best of luck out there in your lineups out there in leville gbps best of luck with all the props ups that you're getting to of course make sure to check out our presenting sponsor ship itation if you guys haven't already and for the DFS sheet that you saw on this video make sure to check out my patreon page which is a different than shipet Nation by the way so just want to clear up any confusion that people may have there for that kind of stuff for the spreadsheet that you see make sure to check out my patreon page there's a link in the description of this video or live stream if you're watching this out here live on there for $15 the golf DFS tier is how you can get all of The Showdown sheets unfortunately probably not the best time of year to go out there and join that as you've got a week break out there before the next event but uh join on up whenever you guys feel comfortable out there doing that and for all the prop slips that I'm taking out there in Sunday make sure to check out the golf prop tier out there on that side uh same thing right it's $15 a month gives you all the different prop slips that I'm entering and of course all the reasoning behind them as well um football be starting we're going to have that out there for Thursday we'll have uh the same sort of stuff out there for football it's going to be $15 for DFS the entire year for every single month uh that'll include Showdown and Main every single week and then same thing out there for props so that'll be starting as soon as Wednesday out there with that content so we keep an eye out for some football videos throughout the week uh football content over there on the patreon page out there for paid members and uh subscribe so you don't miss any of that to come best of luck as I said smash that like button if you guys haven't already and uh best of luck out there with your exposure