Round 4 Preview - 2023 BMW Championship : DFS Showdown, Underdog and Prize Picks Plays w/ Gsluke DFS

foreign [Music] hey what's going on everyone it's your boy Luke here with our live stream I'm having slight technical difficulties on my end so hopefully you can hear me and whatnot what's going on Mark and I'm ready to talk some DFS and some props for tomorrow let me double check that this is working so if you're down there in live chat um any sort of feedback would be great but yeah it looks like the mic is picking me up maybe it was just a little bit of visual lag on my end we're good to go let's go ahead and hop in if so and I'll get ready to talk about a little bit of tomorrow's action so we've got some props on the schedule um those will be towards the end of the live stream as per usual and uh we'll start it off with a look at the golf course and then afterwards um start to go through a few of our DFS thoughts so it'll go golf course DFS and then towards the end uh the props which we'll get into which first off I guess before we hop in uh definitely hope you're having a great Saturday uh we're just chilling kind of doing our thing here gonna play some Madden afterwards uh hang out maybe go out a little bit later here with a few buddies but uh just cooling it chilling for right now right no crown of coke just a little bit of water in hand a hydration out there a little bit they've got a lot of sports on you have MMA on right now we've got of course golf on all day tomorrow out there golf uh and even some pre-season football which I don't know if you guys are paying attention to the Steeler game I'm a huge Steeler fan of course so you're gonna hear me yapping about that a whole lot during the fall especially for some of our football content that Kenny Pickett three drives in the preseason these created three touchdown drives so that's pretty good you can hear me cool thank you for letting me know what's going on courteous what's going on carum and do I play mutt I am yeah I play met all the time um I haven't played Superstar mode yet but I'm a huge mutt guy so I've been saving up coins I had the early release with the deluxe edition and uh today they released a bunch of legend cards so I'm gonna check it out maybe buy a few packs and then hopefully build a little bit of a team I've got 4.4 million coins so we can definitely have a little fun there we can talk about mutt throughout the stream if you have any questions I'll go through them but uh let's talk some golf shall we that's why a majority of you guys are here so today the afternoon played about a stroke easier than the morning right um I called for pretty much exactly that and luckily we played a lot of those pmwave golfers right typically a Saturday Showdown slate um the morning guys get a little bit of an advantage but this golf course for whatever reason and honestly I think it's because the ball's traveling further I'm out there during the PM hours but because they're getting a little bit extra distance the long golf course especially with that six inch rough isn't playing as long in the last like five six hours of play so at least that's my theory when it comes to the conditions but that of course was prevalent on uh for Fridays around I guess right round two's action uh you saw about a 1.3 stroke advantage and for Sunday with pretty much identical wins I'm up here right the data golf forecast and you can see up here they're calling for a pretty flat winds in fact maybe even slightly lower winds in the afternoon you're probably going to see that same sort of effect it's worth noting the reason why I brought this tab down was to show you what happened today so in terms of observed weather conditions right so this is uh after the fact right they've recorded all of the miles an hour um as the day went on I look here in the afternoon right the wind speeds they're significantly higher than what you had in the morning wave yet look at the scoring average right even with much higher wins from the sustained perspective the pmwave played easier in fact the entire stroke easier right so um that difference of wind kind of removes like the fact that like oh maybe the winds were just a little bit lower in the PM wave right and that's why it played easier that was not the case right the forecast was calling for the winds to kind of you know kick up as the day goes on but for whatever reason that doesn't matter right now you may say oh some of the worst players at the bottom of the board right but that's not an entire stroke difference right you're not going to get an entire stroke um dispersion between just a 50 player field clearly something was going on with the weather conditions and when we take a look at you know the Sunday forecast you can see that's going to get really hot in the afternoon right so it starts in the mid 80s from right around when they're starting play local time up to 93 to 95 degrees if that's going to be the case I think the course might play significantly easier here for Sunday's action uh than what you saw for the first three rounds the ball is going to travel further that same kind of effect where the afternoon played easier than the morning is going to be present like right away right it's going to be um really hot pretty much from the onset of the day um which I you know we'll have to see how it plays out right they can make pins a little bit more difficult tomorrow um to try and combat it but I do think it's going to help the players that combined with low winds you can see on pretty much the entire day they're calling for no wind now in this recent H Triple R update um the last update does have the wins kind of kicking up closer to like three or four p.m but it's only up to like nine mile an hour winds right which compared to today where they were blowing in the 17 mile an hour range there in the afternoon um would still be much much calmer right than what we had for round three which played to a 0.77 under par scoring average so um this golf course is one that's hard to read I can just tell you that because my prop success this week has not been what it's used to being right normally it's like a princess round after round do the first three rounds it's been raining around Break Even each day right we've had our hits we've had spots we've gone screwed right so it probably should have gone a little bit better than it has but either way Ray it's not the smash week that we had at the Open Championship so it's a hard Golf Course to get a grasp on but now that we've seen it for the first three rounds it's looking like this PM wave tomorrow like the chalk right obviously guys the PM wave is going to be all the guys towards the leader top of leaderboard right um all of your guys on the top five top ten are gonna be the ones teeing off last might have the best conditions that on top of the placement points they're getting for being in Sunday Showdown is going to lead to them being extremely chalky so it's going to be a highly polarized slate right the guys going off early are going to be getting the short end of the stick with conditions they're going to have some of the lowest vote Invasion which means pretty much no one is going to play them so there's going to be an advantage for maybe taking a little bit bit more chalk than you would be used to taking but at the same time right those pivots are even more so of pivots they have a lot more value right they bring a lot more leverage to the table they give you a lot more wiggle room to work with in differentiation so there's it's you gotta like balance it out right you've got to take some of that chalk that's going to be in the prime ideal conditions and then you're probably going to want to take a pivot or two because no one's going to play that right and if one of those guys going off early which there's a few Prime candidates that we'll go through here right here right now um if any of them go off right you might have to have them tomorrow right because a lot of them are going to be lower owned it might be like two three percent owned and shoot five six under par so let's go through them so there's a few that come to mind we're going to go through the DFS projections here in just a few minutes but the one that really sticks out to me and it's not just because I'm the world's biggest fan it's Jordan Spieth right Jordan Spieth is number 30 in the FedEx Cup rankings right now or maybe he's a number 31 yeah he's number 31 officially I'm behind Danny McCarthy right now you can see they've got him at a 78.3 chance of making it to East Lake which Believe It or Not Right Matt Fitzpatrick is tied for first and has a lower chance of making it to East Lake than Jordan obviously based on their starting position so I'm Jordan sleep tomorrow realistically has to go out there and hold his position to go out there and make it to East Lake um as long as Maddie Fitz doesn't win if Fitz falls out of first place um it's Jordan spief like by default is going to move in I think if Denny McCarthy goes out there and like moves anywhere down the leaderboard um Jordan Spieth also hop in but the one thing that Jordan can't do right is is going like shoot like three four over par right he can't go from like tied for 30th to like 40th 50th place where you're getting to like next to no FedEx cut points right that's where um he starts to bring in other outcomes where maybe people like fits do get in right if they don't finish in first place um right Fitz I think can finish in like fifth place right if uh Jordan Smith were to falter um there's a lot of different outcomes right so like a bunch of different things can happen but either way right guys like Jordan's speed obviously Maddie Fitz is in first place he's motivated but like Jordan Spieth specifically like has to go out there and kill it tomorrow uh Terrell Han right he's at 84 he's got to go out there and get on his horse guys like Justin Rose Grio again right he was on the same list yesterday um Chris Kirk right went from like a 99 chance of making the FedEx Cup to now only 59.9 and you're not going to be surprised to see quite a few of these players in my player pool right the guys that have a lot of incentive and the ones that that are going to give you some differentiation right are the Jordan speeds of the world right that no one's going to play for Sunday Showdown he has like no placement points he's going off early in the shitty conditions but he does have that external factor that I think might help it might give you what you need from a narrative perspective so um there are guys like Chris Kirk right that wouldn't be on if it weren't for this narrative um players like uh Chef straka today right I know it didn't work out but you could go back to it for that same sort of narrative um that are all here on this list so if you're bringing up data golf I think this is maybe one of the best categories to look at the live stats of course are extremely useful for this kind of golf tournament but uh I think at least for these playoff kind of events um have any idea of like who is like on the bubble right who is maybe just outside trying to get in or maybe just inside trying to hold on to their spot is important information right because it could go one of two ways can help a player it could really hurt them out there um you're gonna have to make that determination for most of your players I'll just say for Jordan Spieth as a Jordan Spieth fan I'm extremely biased but you put the guy into a corner you tell him to get up and down from the hardest spot you tell him to shape a shot around a tree the guy gets the job done right he's more than used to going out there and uh getting it done under pressure right when the stakes are the highest and I want that sort of player right somebody that's shown it before now if they're a new guy in tour right that's you know maybe not as established maybe they do crumble under that pressure right so you're gonna have to pick your reasons for fading or playing somebody but I think if you're looking for Motivated players that are going off early um the FedEx Cup guys are great choices right because just to give you an example like a Sheamus power down here a Lee Hodges uh um Taylor Moore right he's plus 16 going off by himself they have next to no motivation right like they if they just if they start with like a plus one plus two they're their first you know four or five holes they're not gonna pull Tommy Fleetwood Tommy Fleetwood by the way but plus three through his first five holes and ended it up one under par making I believe five birdies on his back nine so you know motivation matters right if somebody like more starts off you know really shitty he's gonna shoot a near 80 again all right I think he did shoot uh over an 80 today so uh I took his under 71 Strokes I mean like Lord like good stuff Taylor more and then that was just Dreadful stuff you don't want to play that kind of guy in Sunday Showdown uh at least from my experience you know it works out every once in a blue moon but it doesn't work out a vast majority of the time I'm gonna get some water and beans we're starting to get pasty what's going on Maga what's going on um Naji Harris you're saying you like him Mark uh yeah and I think he's a decent running back I think Jalen Warren might be better though speeds on the bubble you need him to get hot tomorrow right there with you literally no wins for the am guys gotta play half a stroke easier um I think the whole day will play a lot easier for sure and I think the afternoon specifically um is going to play very very easy especially like the early afternoon from like midday to like 3 P.M if you can have somebody finishing their back nine then I think that's like the perfect timing um for a player so maybe teeing off it like 9 A.M local maybe like actually maybe a little later right they finish golf faster than five hours let's say like 10 maybe 10 30 local time tea times those are probably the best tea times Kirk was terrible today for sure I'm glad I didn't play them right he was that donkey chalk at the top of the board that uh was super chalky just based on his positioning right and those were the guys that we were fading right the guys that are just the hot hand right the hot commodity similar strategy for Sunday right a lot of those hot hands I'll be fading right that's just how golf works there's the Ebbs and flows of such a volatile sport where if you have that ceiling performance the day before it doesn't lower your chances of having it the next day it's just that it doesn't give you a better chance of having it the next day right and a lot of people out there especially that are you know playing PJ DFS any sort of betting fantasy with golf they assume that it does right they think that that you know because there's been five Reds in a row on roulette there's no chance that it could happen again right there's all those random superstitions when it comes to outcomes that don't actually have an impact right so if ownership is going to be higher on somebody just because of how they played today um now with Sunday shootout I have to add it's not just because of the leaderboard right they also get placement points for Sunday Showdown but they're not quite as impactful as the the ownership might imply let's see what's going on Bobby light the candle what's going on Naji a boring 3.7 yards per carry um yeah I agree with you and Jalen Warren averages like five yards to carry he just had a 62-yard rushing touchdown for the Steelers in the preseason game I think by mid-season that it's going to at the very least be a time share maybe like a 55-45 where naji's still the you know head running back but I think that's at the very least uh you might see Warren actually end up the lead back by the end of the year and that's uh as a Steeler fan telling you that so I tend to agree with you man he's not that impressive but I like the guy he's a great character he's like one of the better uh Community guys that we've got on the team uh does a lot outside of the field when I was up there in Pittsburgh in college I heard a lot of good things about them um so let's go through a few things with the BMW Championship so um as per usual with Sunday Showdown guys um a few notes right so if you're new to Showdown Sunday Showdown a little bit different than the first three days for Sunday Showdown you do have placement points involved so the winner is going to get a bunch of points I believe it's 13 placement points down to like 0.5 for the guys that are finishing in like 50th right so like if you're finishing in last place you're getting like next to nothing um in fact I think like outside of the top I forget what the actual cutoff is but unless you're finishing in the top like five to ten um really the top three is where you're getting like substantial placement points it doesn't matter all that much in fact for most optimal lineups right in an optimal lineup is usually a lot different I'll keep this in mind right then what actually wins the large filled gbps but in optimal lineups usually the winners in every optimal maybe the second place finisher but a lot of times it's the guys that go off early that shoot like five six under a par that are in the actual optimal lineup right that have the best rounds of the day the issue is that those outcomes those players are usually a lot lower owned right so in practice in large field winning lineups they're not always in that lineup and a lot of times it's just more chalky players so when we're playing Sunday Showdown you've got to know that Dynamic right the placement points matter but a lot of times the guys that aren't even getting placement points like a John ROM for example right could end up in the actual best lineup so if you took them over some of the higher owned counterparts right you get like infinite leverage to the field right now John Rahm would be a bold play right like he's playing horribly in fact let me even double check if I have them in lineups I don't even think I do I'll double check for you guys though just in case there's there's a chance to have them in a few let's see nope don't have them in any lineups for tomorrow's Sunday Showdown if you wanted to though he's going to be sub four percent owned like literally unowned you took them up top you could get five 6X leverage to the field just by putting them in a quarter of your lineups um those sort of players have their utility too but with the weather Edge right guys like Rory you know a Scotty shuffler at the top of the board um are getting a ton of ownership and it's deservedly so so you're gonna have to try and pick and choose your chalk up top um I would say you could play Rory and Scotty if you wanted to um you could pick one or the other as well I would say fading both of these top two options would be a little bit of a death wish but um if you want to be bold and just take some of these 9k options instead um or even like I can't lay at minus three then so be it right so there's a few different ways you can handle the top of the board this chalk and the 9k range is getting a ton of ownership um obviously Brian Harmon Matt Fitzpatrick up there at the top of the board too Max Homa right at minus nine um up here uh 9 600 are all your most uh highest owned players the guys with the most exposure out there um that doesn't mean you have to fade all of them right there's going to be a few that you play I think in my case let me count them one two I'm playing three of those guys in my player pool and then I think four of them I'm completely fading right not playing so just pick and choose the ones that you want to get over the field on and then I'll pick the three or four that you're going to full out fade there's a not really a bulletproof thought process for the guys that you're going to play or you're going to go out there and fade but a few things that I look out for right and we'll go through a few of those things um with the actual highlighted plays so first up Rory McIlroy right I'm playing Rory McIlroy because this guy as long as he's not in the lead on a Sunday normally is moving in the right direction right if you put them up there in the last group that sort of thing he tends to crumble faster than most but being in the third to last group I think is going to be helpful for Rory and at this goal of course he's the perfect course fit right the guy hits the ball country mile even when he's in the rough he's still able to access every single pin and if the ball is going to travel even further tomorrow I mean he might be hitting this 350 360 yard drives and having wedge into almost all the par fours so he's got the really high upside I think he could go out there easily win this golf tournament if he has a ceiling round and is in position to get those placement points so um it's slightly lower owned actually I think he's higher owned than I have Scottish shuffler at believe it or not even Scotty shuffler at -11 I think it have it lower ownership again I'll double check on that one too I have it on the other tab here uh let's see I think I if memory serves me no so no Rory is lower owned than Scotty shuffler but it's not not outrageously lower out like Scotty shuffler is not 40 50 owned so a lot of that comes down to price tag a lot of that comes down to people still wanting to play Rory um in my case I think that if you had to choose between a Rory and a Scotty I would rather have Rory McIlroy the obviously today Scotty had that hot putter he was running like the Sun out there with the flat stick I just have a hard time thinking that continues right I mean the last six months right are your sample size for why that probably shouldn't be expected to continue uh whereas Rory really didn't do [ __ ] today right if anything you'd think that he should probably bounce back at least a little bit um so you know if I'm going to choose between the two players you know I kind of think that Scotty got lucky today right and Rory got screwed in a few instances and uh I think I want to take the guy that got screwed over the guy that was getting lucky today um but again if you want to play Scotty that's just fine right um just pick and choose the chalk that you're gonna play you can't play all the chalk I'm gonna call it a lineup with six players if you want to take a few pivots John Romney mentioned but I think Patrick Cantley um could be worth considering too the guy's ball striking was on point today I'm hitting a bunch of Fairways hit uh I believe nine Fairways today and also was putting himself in position with the iron play just couldn't get a 15 to 20 foot putt to drop like every birdie putty had uh was just slightly um hitting the rim so I think that you can take that sort of player and just hope that he has a little bit better luck with the putter um he's at minus three so he's probably not gonna get a bunch of placement points but if he shot like a 65 right maybe even like a 64 tomorrow he could finish in the top 10 right he'll still get a few placement points out there but most importantly gets all the fantasy points from shooting a six under par round right and like I mentioned those Spike rounds are the ones that you have to have right to win large field gbps not so much like if Scottie shepler shoots like a minus three tomorrow it wins it minus 14. like that probably isn't in the gpp winning lineup right in the large field gpp tomorrow but it doesn't mean it's in the optimal lineup right if John ROM goes off tomorrow or if uh like I said it can't lay where she like a 64. he could very well be the optimal player up top um whereas like you know maybe he's low owned and no one really gets the right combo with a Patrick can't lay um because he is so low owned where Scotty shuffler's still in the winning lineup right that still happens so um just because I'm fading somebody I'll just say like I'm not playing Scotty shelter tomorrow um but that doesn't mean you have to fade them so guess what I'm trying to get out there right you might still win the gpp with um a half-assed performance from it that's completely possible um down here in the 9k range a lot of people are playing hovland who uh I absolutely love for Sunday I'll just say that Max Homa I think is absolutely pissed off after what happened on 17. if you guys didn't see it somebody tried to screw him up when he was putting for birdie he had like a four footer so it wasn't that hard of a but when he was mid-back swing I think somebody screamed in his backswing so uh yeah that pissed him off he was actually chirping the fan out there um they didn't pick it up on microphone but he didn't look very happy obviously uh so maybe that Spurs him on who knows Tommy Fleetwood could not get a putt the drop today especially on his front nine and like I've said he started plus three but ended up minus one by the end making five birdies on his back nine um guys like Tommy Fleetwood with that momentum like I like as a a chaser right um a Patrick can't lay right I'm playing out there for tomorrow as a chaser like if you're gonna take an elite tier option and just hope for a spike round take somebody that you know has been hitting it well right like I can't leave like a Tommy Fleetwood and just hope that that putter flips for them let's see what's going on down to chat we'll continue with some of the 7K guys next that's exactly right the difference between 50th and 9th is one birdie that is correct exactly so those placement points I was talking about they really only matter for like that top five like if you're honestly the top three are the ones that you really have to have for the largeville GBP outside of that unless it's like a guy going from like 20th with like a minus five round to like fourth right like that guy's probably going to be optimal more so because of the minus four minus five rounds then the fact that he finished in fourth place so yeah I think I think we're saying the same thing man completely agree um Mark says do you think Cameron young and sahith have it in them to sneak into the top 30. let me check on their uh chances because I'm not 100 sure so the gala's at 25 so he's probably got to go out there and shoot minus four minus five I imagine uh that's probably what that is implying there and then Kim Young only 1.1 so I don't want to say it's impossible but he probably has to shoot like 65 um or a near course record to go out there and make it to East Lake but if anyone's gonna do it it's cam young in fact I'm playing cam young for Showdown because he knows right if he sees 1.1 percent next to his name I'm glad he brought him up by the way I am playing him he's in my player hole for Sunday Showdown if he sees that 1.1 number he knows he at least has a chance right and he also knows that he has to go nuclear low and what are we looking for for Sunday's Showdown especially from uh like I think he's like a middle of the pack he's like minus four so he's actually going to be in some of the better conditions we know he's gonna have to go for a ceiling route right so his motivation is directly in line with our motivation which just looking at the list except straka fits that same description Eric Cole Eric Cole has to go like absolutely crazy today um let's say tomorrow to go out there and make it to Eastlake who knows I think that's a good motivation there you forgot what the tournament is but ROM was terrible a majority of the week then nuke did in round four yeah he does that all the time man that's kind of his thing like Rory does that too right Royal suck for the first three rounds and then go out there and nuke it on Sunday wouldn't surprise me there's another 62-63 I agree I think scores will actually be better tomorrow than what we saw today um even with like Sunday pin locations like though they're gonna try and toughen it up in terms of setup I imagine whole what is it eight um that can play like 265 yards we'll probably play like 265 to 270 I'm out there for tomorrow but yeah the conditions are going to be perfect so I think that they'll still get it Scotty's putter looks way better he was missing terribly before but it the speed and stroke is on point yeah we'll have to see man it's uh ball doesn't lie right we'll have to see tomorrow we'll have to see where the putts go and whatnot I have a hard time believing it's just back but who knows maybe he figured something out Lucas Glover did that's for damn sure but he doesn't have the magic lab putter in hand so I'm not sure if he's gonna do that so let's go through a few other plays here uh we'll get into chat here in a few minutes I'll remind you guys we will be going through props here in about 5-10 minutes so we'll just stick around for those if you're waiting for those but Jordan Spieth I mentioned his motivation Factor right he's got like a 80 chance of making it to East Lake he's got to go out there and keep his round together tomorrow so maybe he's not as aggressive because he knows his standing right he knows he can go out there shoot like 300 part and make it to East Lake but I still like the fact that he'll be engaged he's going to be extremely low owned as you can see with the ownership number and uh he's got all the upside the ball striking is has been like I don't want to say it's been great but it's it's been a lot better than I think the scorecard indicates in fact I'm going to go ahead and just bring up his live stats and give it to you round by round I don't think that he's being judged fairly by most people right that aren't looking at shots gained metrics so let's find good old Jordan Spieth so today he uh he was not very good with the ball striking so okay round three for sure um did not look very good let's look at the other two rounds right for uh round two was gaining off the tee and was really really bad with the putter in round two so that was his Bugaboo there and then in round one he gained an approach he gained off the T in the game actually gains across all four categories so pretty decent start to the week obviously it was up there in the top ten round two horrible putter event today which is horrible across the board right so I could just tell you I actually think my 8.4 ownership number whatever I have here might be a little bit too high maybe the algorithm was a little bit too bullish on Jordan Spieth um his ownership today was right around the same kind of number so I can see why my algorithm put them at 8.4 but one thing I know is that people do not like playing guys that lose across the board that the shots gained like they'll look at the round three shots gain stats and say oh it's a red across the board or whatnot they won't even touch the guy if you're looking for leverage John ROM's your guy up top obviously um and like Bobby said right he went off over there at the US Open and then Jordan Speaks to your guy right and I know he's playing horribly but he's got to make it to East Lake like he's he's obviously going to try and figure something out so I think it's a chance worth taking uh Terrell hadn't too he loves Sundays right he's maybe a chance worth taking for Sunday Showdown uh next uh highlighted play here is going to be Corey Connors um Corey Connors really good on Sunday something I've noticed from Corey is that he goes left on is not really a sexy pick for any given week but one thing I do like about Corey is that it fits the golf course quite well um he's priced fairly at 8 100 and if he does have a ceiling round right goes out there shoots like minus four like we're hoping for he might get those top five placement points so he's within Striking Distance the ownership isn't too out of hand because you have guys like Matt Fitzpatrick here right you have a Justin Rose that's getting a lot of ownership around him you know kind of soaking it up like a magnet I'm away from a Corey Connors I mean even like a Brian Harman up here um Sam burns down here um who believe it or not Sam Burns guys is 6 900 like make it make sense um it you know are keeping his ownership intact so let me get through Chris Kirk into that um same boat right Keegan Bradley down here guys that are you know minus three even par respectively like I know especially Keegan Bradley right he's not finishing in the top five right so play some points are pretty much you know negligible with him it's more so that Keegan Bradley is always capable of a six seven under part rounds right he's always capable of just hitting like every Fairway and throwing darts like that's the Keegan Bradley first round leader mold maybe it's on the first round leader this week maybe it's him going out there on Sunday he's already into East Lake right he doesn't have to worry about that but nukes the Sunday slate and 5.9 ownership right that intrigues me um and the thing with Keegan right I know he's already into East Lake he is playing for positioning right and I mean if he starts off like birdie birdie birdie right like what's stopping him from going out there and shooting like a 62. right he's not going to think to himself oh well you know a minus three through three but you know I'm already into East Lake like let's let's not go out there and go oh look let's keep this thing going maybe I can you know move up a stroke or two out there for next for next week so um I like that Chris Kirk No One's Gonna Play because of his round today um he looked horrible by the way I mean he was just atrocious out there uh pretty much across the board but now he has nothing to lose he's going to be you know I could say he's some ownership and because he's at minus three like people are still gonna play Chris Kirk but not nearly at the rate that they would have been playing him before so um I do like him there I know that the form wasn't great today but it's golf [ __ ] happens right and I'm not one of the Bettors out there one of the DFS players that over reacts to a one round sample size um Eric Cole one of the better round four scorers of all this season in fact if Libby is under number six on tour when it came to round four scoring so at sixty eight hundred dollars and it was eleven percent owned which doesn't look like that much of a pivot but compared to like a Denny McCarthy or Sam Burns right he's much much lower owned right in fact like half the ownership of both of those players and I know like Denny Sam Burns right like oh if they have a ceiling they might get top five placement points they still have to have a ceiling performance right like in Eric cool like you know he might not get all those placement points the placement points are overrated they really don't matter all that much right and Eric Cole I think has like maybe marginally lower chance you know of going out there and making the optimal than a Denny McCarthy or Sam Burns but he's like half the ownership like for me I just I'll take the guy half the ownership especially in a large field contest and the last highlighted play is going to be Adam shank um he's minus one sixty four hundred dollars another player that's Indy actually is he into East Lake already let me let me fact check myself there right let's make sure giving you guys the right info I believe he is though so he's at minus one yeah he's uh into East Lake right um because he's had like all those second like third place finishes um so he's playing for you know placement right trying to go out there make sure that he can get as many um starting Strokes as humanly possible he's tied for 26th right now he's uh in terms of top 15 he's uh three shots off the top 15. um so if he goes out there tomorrow shoots like a 64-65 right he might be getting himself a stroke or two out there for next week so you know kind of like I mentioned yesterday but this you know I'd say for around for even more so motivation matters I'm out here for Sunday and it's not just like being in contention for this week it's your positioning out there for next week right because this very well could be your last tournament of the year right you might have like a month a month and a half break afterwards like Sheamus power and I hate to I hate to call these two players out you can still play them if you want to but like Taylor Moore Sheamus power like are they really going to give a [ __ ] tomorrow I I don't know like they may they may just say you know what it's a round of golf right let's go out there and have around I've seen that happen before for sure but like with the last event of the year like it just it feels like like what are you playing for like at least like if you made it to the weekend of a Tour event right and you're like the last guy out maybe you can pass a few people up right and get some placement points for the FedEx Cup you're getting nothing this week right you're I mean you're paying for a little bit of a paycheck you might pass a few people and get paid like an extra you know 20 grand or something like that but like outside of that I I I'll ask I'll just ask you guys like do you think that like Taylor Moore and Sheamus power care enough to play them in DFS I'm not playing them as of right now I guess you can convince me otherwise and maybe I'll add them to my player pool but I'm not so sure foreign dude I'm hyped for the fights tonight is O'Malley going to shock the world I hope so I played him in DFS it was a leveraged play for me obviously going against the chalky aljo so we'll see I saw a few uh people breaking down the fight that thought that Sean does have a few outcomes where he could win um it's all almost finish based so he's got to go out there and he's got a clip aljo um the issue is is he's going to try and control the fight too right he's gonna really try and make sure that Sean doesn't have that outcome or have the outs to get there it should be a fun one to watch it's a five round fight which I think helps out Sean the most like I know Sterling is a very good five round fighter very experienced five round fighter but at the same time I just I've got a sticking suspicion that Sean's gonna clip him at some point that's what I'm hoping at least right like I said I definitely took him as a pivot play in DFS let's bring up the prop words we're going to go through these real quickly and uh if you guys have any lineup construction stuff we'll talk through it but Bobby reminded me we've got fights on that we've got to watch in fact I want to double check on uh some of the outcomes I think one of the fights probably already happened and I got to see how my guy did I don't want to say who it was because if he got absolutely murked let's see so he won by the petrovsky guy won by decision they said damn so I have petrovsky I took him but he won by decision that's not great I was thinking about betting a prop on Underdog for finish so it's a good thing I didn't do that but I took a bunch of them in DFS like hoping for a finish so I got a knock down so that's good for points we got a few takedown points but like 57 strikes like come on I do better than that you gotta get me like 100 points that's all right he's still got a dub right he's still got us probably like 80 fantasy points uh probably like 75 80 fantasy points it's acceptable so we've got prop words up if you do have fantasy questions I'll still touch on them guys so feel free to go ahead and toss those down and chat I think the golf course is going to play easier for Sunday than what we saw today so let's line shop a little bit um Underdog did wait until prize picks posted their board so it makes me think that they maybe copy and pasted it um no I didn't of course of course I didn't accuse them of that I would never do such a thing but uh I do think that they may have done that let's see so they've got Tommy at 69 and a half over here and Underdog he's actually a stroke lower so maybe not they have their own little set of pricing over here look at this Corey Connors is 68 and a half I think he's 70 probably in practice or no he's always a stroke hire I don't know now they're making me think an underdog I feel like the board that for B is going to be the easiest to interpret is this prize picks board because this Underdog board like I I think it's going to play easier but they have they have it like way low like they have fits at like 200 par like on prize picks what is he 69 shirts yeah he's in a tire stroke higher like I feel like this board's better to take unders for so let's go ahead and take a look at prize picks first uh then we'll tackle uh Underdog afterwards the the pricing over here is wild like they went from Two and a Half birdie lines right remember that yesterday here on stream to four and a half birdie lines like I know prize picks did too right but they had guys at four yesterday right they were at least reasonable about it I'm three and a half um for some of the other guys at Xander and whatnot up there but not two and a half right they get they just did such a 180 over here in Underdog and it's not quite eye opening so let's take a look at PGA so they've got four and a half birdies up top four for like that middle tier Elite tier guy and then three and a half for the rest of the field so you've got like burns down there he had eight birdies today uh Ricky Fowler's at three and a half there uh he actually went under his three birdie Mark today uh honestly bounce back for him probably gonna happen so maybe we'll consider that one in terms of Strokes if it is going to play Easier in terms of scoring average right it already played 0.29 Strokes under par today and with next to no wind on what was it Friday it played 0.67 Strokes under par for Sunday it probably looks a little bit more like this scoring average than what it did for rounds one and three right rounds one and three played like point three Strokes under they played about twice as easy um over there for Friday's round so keeping that in mind right bearing that in mind a lot of these guys down here at like 70 are actually projected below the field average which for guys like a Cebu sahith Keegan I mean even adjacent day I guess I understand but there are 100 guys on here that are projected at 69 and a half Strokes which I think is pretty much going to be the field average that are way better than field average players so just to give you a few right Jordan Spieth we know he has to play well to make the final 30 right he's obviously going to be motivated to break par I think most people would agree with that right he's not a a horrible idea to take out there Tommy Fleetwood in position right today finished his round beautifully right still got it under par um started off plus three through five holes right I like that kind of um momentum first off but also the fact that he doesn't quit on his round right he's in minus four he's at a position where he could realistically move into that top ten we're gonna go ahead and lock this one in right away so for tomorrow I think you need to be considering you know when people are teeing off these two players for example are teeing off towards at least the middle half of the day right Jordan speeds to teeing off maybe a little bit earlier um than I would like for most players but it's not atrocious Right In fact when he's teeing off tomorrow there's going to be four mile an hour winds and then about 20 minutes into his round he's going to be dealing with two in one mountain hour winds I mean like it's like a 30 minute early tee time right so um love him for tomorrow especially because he's gonna have to be motive invaded to go out there and make it to East Lake but yeah you want to be considering the player's positioning right and I don't think they have a bunch of guys on here that are out of it see in fact just off the top of my head I don't think anyone here on the prize picks board at least is completely out of it right or has completely no motivation to worry about let me double check on it yeah all these guys are in contention if they're not into East Lake right like a hand like a Jordan Spieth they have a good chance to get into East Lake so that's good to know for the price fix board let's check on Underdog because in theory right a guy that doesn't have motivation we could take for a fade let's see absolutely I think it'll be a good fight half a stroke discrepancies It's actually an entire stroke discrepancy I would say um Homa um called fan The Biggest Loser was he like a fat guy if he was a fat guy that's hysterical because that's like the perfect insult for somebody like that um but yeah I'm glad he didn't like give him an F-bomb right because I would have been I almost didn't have been inappropriate but there's kids out there right let's uh let's be nice about it yeah so with those discrepancies just looking at them I think I agree with the prize picks one more like the 68 Strokes um rather than the 67 and a half like two and a half under par that's pretty aggressive like I know it's gonna play easy but and that's just tough on this kind of course like even for Scotty shuffler all right let's find a few other people to take on here I guess it's worth noting was that somebody did they just add a few Strokes people on here like Tony finau where is he at on the FedEx Cup list he's obviously into FedEx uh into East Lake we know that much uh it doesn't have his actual ranking on here I had to be interested to know how much motivation Tom a Tony female has all right let's look at this Underdog word so we're looking for guys without motivation right that's a sore or uh sole purpose in looking at this word that's right Taylor Moore's into East Lake which is kind of wild right he's down there in last place so I mean in theory right he wants to get more placement points but I don't think he's gonna get very many I think he probably knows that at plus 16. so you might throw him into the bucket of somebody that's not motivated so let's see let's just throw something in here as a placeholder maybe the over Strokes let's do that for now we're not this might not be a pick that we actually go with so let's see everyone else looks like they made it into East Lake Lucas Glover obviously um Jason day obviously and what is posting at is posting into East Lake I think he probably is see nope he's got a 0.1 chance actually less than a point one percent chance of making it into East Lake so if you're looking for guys without motivation right Taylor mortt plus 16 is like an obvious candidate um in fact we're probably fading I'm over 70 Strokes um and then JT posted at four birdies is even on prize picks can we do a little line shopping here so he would 100 be at three and a half let's see Izzy on the board no he's not but he would be at three and a half right he's he's not better than cam young right making birdies out there I feel pretty confident with this being value and being props that we should take not only are they value compared to other sites right I think Taylor Moore he he'd have to be in at least 70 and a half Strokes right because look they have like Keegan at 70 see woo Kim and he's played he's Plus 16. at this point definitely like this slip so let's go ahead enter that we'll do that for the official Underdog slip I'm here for this live stream um Taylor Moore enough said playing horribly uh took us under today that went just splendidly for us and then JT posted down here at four birdies I do think it'll play easier but Poston isn't really playing for all that much right he's tied for 30th he's you know out of it when it comes to the FedEx Cup now I think that he'll at least somewhat care like he's not going to go out there and just eject from the golf tournament but he's not somebody that's informed like I'm worried about going out there making five six birdies so that's the slip that I went with for JT Poston um I like the birdie fade but let me take a look at a few of the other categories because Infinity may bump these real soon if you want to take the overboat because it's not a bad idea the over Strokes I would have gone that direction uh if we hadn't already taken over Strokes for Taylor Moore um and even like over on this par three Strokes like you could take any of those Fades and I'd be okay with an even or even under fantasy points really any of those Fades and I would have been okay with it with JT Poston the top over to prize picks figure out what we're doing there uh great we already have the one slip that we put in let me uh sorry sorry it's on the other tab so I can't bring it up uh over there with my personal info and all that fun stuff but yeah Jordan Spieth Strokes obviously and then uh Tommy Fleetwood right it's 69 and a half uh let's see if we can find another slip to add in too there's guys like Ricky Right 69 and a half Strokes right it feels like projecting him at the field average uh might be a little disrespectful Terrell Haddon right he's playing for his job this week um Terrell hadn't at this point what is he like even par um through the first three rounds he's got an 84 chance of making it to East Lake he just can't [ __ ] up tomorrow right he can't go over there um in Sunday and shoot over par right he's got to shoot at least like the field average that feels like a perfect type of slip to enter right where you have two guys that are motivated that have to go out there that have something to play for um out there in Atlanta um I know I keep talking about it I know it's a narrative and whatnot but it matters it's going to make a difference right like there's a reason why we faded Taylor Moore and JT Poston right and we're taking unders and all these other players right it's gonna play easy but if you don't give a [ __ ] it might not matter speed set 31 what are you saying oh you're saying for the standings yeah I'm more looking at like the ratings on the FedEx Cup like their actual simulated chances um he gets what are you saying with that he gets O'Malley on the map it's a wrap um I don't know O'Malley I mean if he gets held down right it's probably not going to go well he's gonna lose those rounds but we'll have to see how his submission defense goes who knows he might be right you might not be right we'll see right lower Fantasy on more you could do that too if they bumped um him over there for strokes uh let me double check it for you right because it does depend on the projection I think I'm at 23. yeah like I actually yeah I'd prefer the under FS over going like an over on bogeys if you're trying to take The Strokes for posting instead of taking The Strokes over there for Taylor Moore but yeah definitely uh fantasy points if you're going to go in that direction man who are the young guys outside the top 30 that could go low tomorrow um for the top 10 bump you're thinking a guy like cam let's take a look so you're saying that like can't make it into the FedEx Cup right so you're talking like external motivation just like trying to win money your number one candidate for that is Eric Cole okay um Eric Cole he plays money games for fun down here in South Florida right on the mini tour um so there's a no round of golf that matters too much for Eric Cole to play like and take it super seriously um so I would definitely say him so you said Cam Davis right I could see it for Cam Davis right he's got no no chance to get in I don't think that's too crazy Tom Hoagie he's gonna give it his all tomorrow I can tell you that much uh the guy wants to win some more money to go out there and play craps with uh Patrick Rogers like in theory they all kind of care right they all like if they got off to a really good start tomorrow like two three under par through their first four or five holes almost everyone down here is going to give a rat's ass right they're gonna go out there and try to keep it going it's just that I think that even the guys like a hoagie a post in uh a cam Davis that would love to get off to a hot start and make a little bit of extra money the unfortunate part for them is that like if they start off to a plus one plus two start they're also just gonna give up right like it's it's got to go one of two ways for most guys down here let's see anyone else that really sticks out Eric Cole because he's a rookie I think that's that's also a little bit of an extra icing there anyone I guess Benny Ann right he was on the corn fairy tour for a while so you know he's he hasn't been on the PGA tour forever he's not going to take it for granted and outside of that though Lee Hodges like he hasn't been to the stage before uh maybe he cares a little bit more than most players but you know that's a tough one man trying to read their psychology but I like the way you're thinking right um trying to figure out what these players have to play for um do I like birdies or fantasy for young for cam Young not sure I don't know if I like any of them for came young frankly let's see where he's at I don't think I mentioned those props before unless I'm incorrect I have no idea he's at four birdies that seems pretty fair um and then for fantasy points he's at 27 I've got no idea man those would probably be washes for me if anything um close to like 50 50 props all right let's take a look at prize picks I'm hoping they post more prop categories I've been waiting for greens or maybe even Fairways like we got yesterday but I guess we're not getting them um three and a half for guys that get Cam young like it feels like a perhaps a lean towards the over definitely for Sam burns after his eight birdie performance obviously has that putter working now uh obvious we liked guys like Ricky Tyrell hen for their unders and strokes if you want to take their overs for birdies I wouldn't hate that either right I do think conditions will be significantly easier um especially for some of the elite tier guys going off late so that's the way I'm thinking for the boards of course guys all the exposure I'm taking is going to be posted over there on my patreon but I think that's what we're gonna cut it off at here for the live stream so I appreciate you guys best of luck out there for all your exposure on Sunday I got some UFC fights to watch got some uh Madden packs to rip open uh so catch you guys later best of luck out there and uh catch you guys for all the content for East Lake I'm undecided if I'll be there in person I was like 99 sure last week I was gonna go um let's see what spief does tomorrow uh If he if he makes it to East Lake let's say there's a 99 chance I'm going if not it's like a 50 50 chance I'm going but you'll know tomorrow morning on the review stream uh whether I decided to go or not if we'll be there we'll have boots on the ground for you guys if not we'll still have the content going on right we'll have boots on the ground but uh we'll see we'll figure it all out tomorrow best luck out there guys and uh catch you guys tomorrow for the weekend review stream