2024 BMW Championship DFS + Betting Livestream GPP Strategy, Outrights, Prize Picks + Underdog Props

e e e e e e [Music] [Music] welcome on ENG go fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our DFS embedding preview out there for this week's BMW Championship going to make sure you're ready for all of your action tomorrow whether it's for DFS or over there on the prop side going over all of the last second info that you need as well as answering any of your questions down in the live chat so first order business go down there and smash the like button if you guys haven't already but you're down there in live chat already or watching this on replay let's go up there pump up those numbers and get ready to have ourselves a week so first off say hi if you're already down here in the live and of course hit me up with any questions that you got order a business first we're going to go through some of the weather and the course conditions for this week um weather not going to be a huge Advantage but we'll talk about the forecast course though a little bit of a change from what I saw earlier in the week so we'll talk about what I'm expecting from that side uh I think you're going to see a pretty low score so maybe that foreshadows a little bit of that talk then afterwards going through the DFS side of things we're going to have all the ownership up on the spreadsheet this time I'm going over any specific players that you want my take on and then uh towards the end is when we're going to go through props so if you've been here while you probably know the deal but for anyone that's new just wanted to give you guys the gist of things we've got a little bit of Starbucks in the cup trying to wake up a little bit this afternoon it's a little bit rainy and dreary down here which is pretty Common Place place this time year it's the wet season down here and uh that combined with being dark pretty early today uh reason why I needed to pick me up it's going on embr say ready to get after it we're there early at 511 so let's get it it's going on in Tony got metrocon down there as well let's have a great weekend couldn't have said it better myself what's going on Barry he's looking for a bounce back from morawa I think it's a sharp take to go after that guy that you know was a little bit of a flop blackag spot what's going on Joseph what's going on Brandon I do think it'll be a birdie Fest we'll touch on that with a lot more detail here in a few minutes what's going on Nick says hope I'm having a great day I am absolutely always a great day when we're building some lineup skin ready for the Slate Barry says hey Luke what is my take on dri we'll talk about him later actually he's one of my highlighted plays for this week so well we'll save the talk on specific players um and yeah love you down there Sean and whatnot we're going to hold off on some of those questions until we talk through the golf course and whatnot so let's start it off with first off a look at the weather which for the first few days is isn't going to play a huge Factor but I like to cover it at the beginning of these shows just to square away all of those kind of questions and what you're going to see for Thursday and Friday is a very similar dynamic in the morning next to no wind probably like five six miles an hour at the very most whereas in the afternoon it gets a little bit spicier but you're talking about 10 maybe 11 mil miles an hour of sustained wind um nothing that's going to blow these guys off the golf course so the weather is going to be extremely tame at least for the first few days um and you can see that's the same thing if we look at the N for Friday so we'll go over here I'll show you the forecast for Friday but it's actually changed a little bit but I would expect this golf course to get progressively easier as the day goes on which might seem like a little bit backwards I just told you guys right that the winds are going to kick up a little bit tomorrow but from what I know about elevation Golf and from some of the quotes that I've heard from players this week is that in the morning because it's a little bit cooler than the afternoon you're not going to get the same kind of altitude effect is what you're going to get later on and by the time you're in the afternoon might be a 10 to 12% distance advantage that you're getting for playing in the warmer and of course that thin air out there in the afternoon so I think that the PM wave this week might be a little bit backwards out there for Showdown might actually play a little bit better in terms of your average score because the ball is flying a little bit further of course you're going to get slightly more receptive greens early so maybe the two factors slightly cancel each other out but because they're only 50 players in the field because the tea times are only spread out about four four and a half hours I believe From First to Last tea time there's not going to be a huge amount of wiggle room to have a big weather Edge out there so you saw that for the weekend last week right there were a whole 70 players to work with now that there's only 50 in the mix you'd be really hard pressed to go out there and find anything but now that this forecast on Friday has turned a little bit I guess you could make an argument that the guy's going off early tomorrow and then a little bit later on Friday might might catch the better end of conditions but that of course is dependent on this Friday forecast on being accurate right and that not end up flipping on its head so personally I'm not playing the weather in my process over here for the first few days but if you wanted to stack a few lineups towards the early starters tomorrow I guess there is a world out there where they could get the slightly better end of things but I think the thing to keep an eye on tomorrow is whether the am or the PM plays easier because the winds are going to be higher in the afternoon if we do get about the same scoring average or maybe even an easier scoring average out there in the PM well we know why right it'll be because the ball is flying to its actual furthest distance is maybe slightly more predictable than when the temperatures are changing in the morning so just to show you what I'm talking about right you can see in the morning tomorrow it's going to be like 67 degrees and then by midday it's about 83 so your players that are playing in those first 3 four hours I think that the ball is going to progressively start to fly further and that that's going to be something to account for right so that's why I think that these PM guys that are playing in pretty much a constant low 80s degrees out there with the fahrenheit um might be on the better side right they're also having the ball go its further furthest distance um we'll have to see though right it's just my best guess I'm not playing Showdown for round one so it's not like I'm going out there and only playing PM guys but if we end up getting that out there for rounds two through four we we we'll know how to go out there and attack that kind of slate so that's what I'll say about the weather it's not really that newsworthy out there but now we'll talk about the golf course which beginning of the week I thought it might play like a hard mirfield Village out there out west I do not think that anymore so my thoughts on this golf course have changed quite a bit and a lot of that because of the reports from the golf course first off it's not going to be firm and fast like some people were hoping for in fact it's rained like three of the last four days and as of right now out there in Castle Rock there's a chance that they're getting some thunderstorms as we do this live stream so if they end up getting even more rain tonight I mean book it it's going to be baby [ __ ] soft out there for tomorrow morning so that combines with the fact that the golf course is playing even shorter than what some people were calling for um is I think going to make this place a very solid scoring Fest I think at least 15 under par is going to win this thing and based on some of the reports that I've heard I mean one of the books out there has the winning score prop at minus 23 and a half I've heard a caddy say that they think around 20 underpar is going to win this thing I think there's an Avenue where it plays even easier than something like 15 underpar winning which compared to my 10 underpar winning score prediction from Monday compared to some other people that thought it might be like minus5 I had people guessing minus 7 minus 8 on my course breakdown video is I think going to be way outside of what actually ends up happening I think it's going to play a lot easier than maybe some of us thought on Monday which has me looking a little bit more at Putters right if we're going to get a Caves Valley situation which was a very soft but long golf course with elevation change coincidentally also a spot where they played the same BMW Championship well then maybe we want guys to get filled up with the flat stick because you had kley in the playoff that year also Bryson that was putting the ever living heck out of it that week and a lot of guys that you wouldn't expect to see win or be in contention at this big of a field right this strong an event got towards the top of that leaderboard just based on their putting stats alone so I think my idea of this golf course is definitely shifted out there since Monday and I think if anything it's put more emphasis out there on the flat stick and maybe less emphasis out there at the approach play one thing that I've heard from players uh you've seen interviews from players that have talked about this is that the ability to judge your distance seems to be really tricky at this golf course and I think it's going to affect everyone because sometimes you get an extra 5% out there in your irons sometimes it's up to an extra 12 to 15% distance and when there's that variable aspect to it where it's not extremely predictable from shot to shot well even your best ball Strikers like for example a Scotty shuffler might miss a few greens that not used to this week however the greens the Randa green shots look very straightforward at this golf course and uh they have less slope than what I was calling for earlyer in the week as well um some of the overhead views made it look like there was more contouring on them but after they uploaded the shot tracker which by the way I'll just show you what I'm talking about here let me bring up the uh PGA site actually I don't think I have it up on a tab yet so let me do that but uh what I want to show you is the greens are extremely flat I thought that there was going to be a lot of undulation to them I thought you you know people were comparing this to Augusta National which is why I guess I fa bait to that I guess I should know better than the trust random slap dicks on Twitter right that uh get their information from one person and just pared it out their ass uh and essentially when one person gets it wrong right all the other Twitter slap dicks just all end up saying the same thing and then the whole Community ends up getting it wrong by the end of the week so if you take a look at the greens these are not austa National greens if you take a look at Augusta ones on a shot tracker setup or just with greens reading book like a lot of you have probably seen it's like three to four% slopes all over the place here the only big slope on hole number one is here towards the middle right so yeah shots if it's firm and fast it won't be this week I guess would rebound off that and go a little bit left but I mean look at the slopes on here there's nothing to it right everything is extremely gradual um and just to show you that this isn't a one hole thing hole number two is the same exact situation you've got a little bit of slope over here to the left but where you're putting and where you're around the green shot are going to be coming in from I mean this looks like a rocket mortgage Classic this looks like a freaking Donald Ross design that's been dumbed down over the years so uh I think that the difficulty that some people were talking about is just probably not going to be there um don't be wrong if you're driving the ball over the place at a golf course this long you're going to have a hard time making pars but the driving corridors out there to add on top of that are massive this week that's what I've heard from a lot of players out there and uh I guess that's what's changed about my take on this golf course is that I no longer really think it's a great test of golf I now think it might be I hate to use the word a birdie Fest I know brand didn't uh use the word before but I guess I have to because it makes a lot of sense but unfortunately I think it could be a birdie Fest so if that's the case you're gonna want a lot of Putters this week and uh a guy like Scotty that I was super high on out there in Monday I'm now pretty average on in fact rather than making him like one stand up there in like the 10K plus range or maybe like the $10,400 plus range I've now got a few other guys mixed in so I'm spreading out my exposure a little bit more than before a lot of because I I just don't think it's a pure ball striking test anymore let's catch up on chat do I think it's a studs and Duds week or more balanced I think everyone is going to play studs and Duds so if you want to play what everyone else is Right play the projections it's going to take you to a lot of studs and Duds lineups there are plenty of guys in the 6K range that project decently well this week and because it's a no cut event it's easier to get to those kind of players so if you're running projections running an Optimizer that sort of thing it's going to try and give you a few guys that are 10K plus because there's plenty of 6K options out there now everyone's going to build that way that is pretty much what all the optimizers are going to give you so if you want to get differ you want to try and you know play against the field a little bit play that leverage game they maybe do be a little bit more balanced about it I have to say I get the upside to trying to jam in top level players when it's only a 50-man field and you have the world's best playing to me that reeks of a lot of those guys getting into the top five but if you want to take a leveraged approach against that right and bet against some of the world's best players then uh that would be a way to get different so you could uh consider it I would say it would be hyper aggressive but uh definitely a lot of people go in studs and Duds what's going on Brian hopefully you're having a solid evening what's going on says yo GS let's get it let's get it DB altitude gonna mess with Scotty it's gonna mess with everyone Joe so whether you're Scotty whether you're Rory I've heard that Rory cannot hit a green for his life out there in his practice rounds it's going to affect every single player in the field now are some guys going to be more died in than others I'm sure right and you're going to hear about it at the end of the week and you're going to feel like an idiot right for not thinking about that narrative ahead of time but reality is and I've actually I've already had a few questions about this Joe so I've had an answer for this for quite some time it's impossible to know who it's going to affect the most right and who is going to go out there and brush it off I had somebody actually ask about Scotty in particular and I think that a lot of people that are going down this route are just looking for a re Reon to avoid the guy and frankly if you're already that far down the rabbit hole just don't play him this week right you're just trying to find a reason not to use him but what I told the person that had a little bit of a worry about that with Scotty is I said hey but he's got Teddy Scott as a caddy if you know anything about Ted Scott he you know cadd for Bubba Watson before that and he would compete in that WGC down in Mexico all the time and play really well other events with altitude including the international right this golf course in the past had played very well so not only did Scott have experience around Castle Hines this golf course but uh he's also they actually talked about it on the on the rain session today he seemingly has the altitude stuff figured out so you know for as many reasons as you could say that somebody could suck with the altitude this week you can make up a [ __ ] narrative for why they could play well this week as well so um I'm not using that as all right just like I think that maybe that does help Scotty that doesn't boost him up in my rankings whatsoever U I would play it pretty black and white go off your modeling pick your key stats to go off of The Narrative stuff you might get it right every once in a while but you're doing just your best guest at the best at the end of the day right you're just going out there you're trying to use your intuition which uh can be right sometimes and can obviously be wrong as well what's going on K are we thinking a PM wave for Thursday Showdown I I'm not going to play it kep but I I do want to at least throw out the idea that the PM might play easier but the wins are going to be higher so frankly I probably just wouldn't play Showdown for round one um and I would just see what happens right try get an idea for how the golf course plays so for rounds two and four you can take advantage round one just like with the narrative stuff you're just taking your best guess if you're okay with that you want to go out there and gamble then maybe you do that right but uh that's not my kind of thing I try and stick to my process and what I know I can exploit what's going on Antonio what are my thoughts on the theory this of course will play a C like capala um it won't be minus 29 so part of the reason that capala gets to that kind of score is because it's a par 73 I think a lot of people forget that there are six par fives I believe out there at capala so a lot more scoring looks than what you're going to get this week I think 20 under par what I've actually heard from a few caddy buddies of mine is that uh one said minus 18 one said minus 20 one said minus 22 so all right around that minus 20 Mark you take the average you get minus 20 so that's what I'm going to go with I'm going to go with the guys that have seen the course that are with players out there looping for him and I go with that advice Kevin says what do I think about the bogey average this week I've got it in like the two to three r something out there like that and that's what I'm going with funny that I constantly preached how hbling couldn't turn it around and now the ts are doing a 360 um I have not said that he can't turn it around you're putting words out there in my mouth dude uh I never said that I never said he's broken I'll never say that about a player hell look at Jordan Fe he had that huge dip down and then came back from golf so um yeah maybe you're just saying you because you're trying to group me in with other golf people out there I'm sure people said that he's broken but uh I absolutely never said that uh in fact I've talked him up for Showdown about 30 40 times this year right so you'd think if I thought he was had no chance at turning it around that I'd probably never talk them up so yeah maybe you're butt hurt for some reason or another maybe you are Victor hind yourself but uh yeah I'm not that guy buddy I'm not the one who said that what's going on Nick says any thoughts on Aaron Ry so Aaron Ry coming in on a heater for sure I would say that the golf course fit is like maybe a six out of 10 um he's accured off the te which I do think will be very useful this week however that's about it he's not the best putter I've become a lot higher on the shots gain putting as the week has gone on um approach profile is I would say above average for him right he's a really good iron player so I he's GNA fit any course when it comes to that perspective but uh yeah for me I'm at like a six out of 10 on him and he's Mega chalky this week so um for me it's the form you want an inform player you play Aaron Ry uh unfortunately he is going to be about 20% owned so you can see all the ownerships on there we'll talk about them here in a few minutes but not my favorite play who are the best Putters on the surface so the uh answer to your question Kim is over here on the right side so it's the bent POA surface this week so if there's anyone that you want the take on it's completely uncensored right it's not anything that's blacked out on here you can check it out in column L over there on the right you always play round one Showdown okay yeah hey if you enjoy it then by all means I just usually stay away Brian because I do have my main slate exposure and then I try and use the stats and whatnot from round one and try and adjust just to that so that's what I would say yeah considering we had him on this nuke round too yeah we had him last week and the week before that right Ross it's uh I don't know the guy's butt hurt for some reason right you're on the internet you're gonna get some butt hurt re uh I was gonna say something out there you're gonna get some butt hurt people out there that say some stupid stuff and uh we'll stay away from that do I think jamming in 39K golfers is viable it would get you different AO that's for sure if you're going to go with that approach you'd be avoiding I mean all these 10K players right in that kind of lineup so for first off you can look at the ownership numbers up here they're all relatively high right your lowest own players like 10% out there with Oar down here in the 9k range you still have like a 20% owned can't lay you still have got guys at like 12 133% so it's not like everyone's low owned but you do have your s burs that's 9.7 you do have a billy hor like 9.6% so if you go down here to the 9k range uh I guess I'll talk about this before we talk about like our specific players here is that the ownership is definitely towards studs and Duds I know we had a question about that four so I've already kind of alluded to it a little bit but what you'll see out there is that these guys are way higher owned from let's say like Windam Clark up like $9,200 wind Clerk and then look at this 8K range right so like from bazan hoot up to Henley where normally we have a bunch of guys that are like 15 to 20% they've got Ry who's 19.2% so I mentioned right he's getting quite a bit of attention almost about 20% projected ownership but then you have all these other guys that are under 10% so it's not like they're all my favorite plays like Henley 9.1 a sunj right he's got decent form himself at 8.4% if you're going to take that more balanced approach you're GNA instantly get different like even if you play an Aaron Ry Your Balanced lineup is gonna have a bunch of guys here that are probably sub 10% owned whereas if you go this studs and Duds you're going to take probably one of these top two right and you're going to see both are about at least 20% you're taking at least probably someone 13 to 15% with your second man in unless you were to take a Oar that I have slightly lower owned and some of those other players there and you can see where the ownership's not only going to catch up here but what I want to also show you is the bottom end of the board when it comes to some of the ownership numbers right towards the bottom end of ownership you see a lot of guys down here like Max graser's 23% um and Austin eots 15% owned Eric Cole 14% uh Nick Dunlap 16.4% himself you have a lot of guys down here that are much chalkier than what we're used to uh a lot of times we'd call 6K chalk out there like seven maybe eight% owned players on a slate like this it's like 15 to 20% hell in single entry somebody like Razer might be like 30% owned out there in that kind of format so if you do go studs and Duds rather than having a whole bunch of options that are like sub two% to make up for that ownership you don't have that on this kind of slate what you do have is like chalk up top and chalk down low so I think if you go with that kind of approach it's a like the 39K golf right circling back to your question it's going to get you very different because you're going to be able to take less cheap guys down low which coincidentally it's kind of weird too it's not normally like this right it's actually getting you lower owned value options and you're still taking decent players for your all six spots so I actually don't hate that kind of build and I wanted to plan out the ownership and that's why I didn't censor all of it this time is so I could show you that kind of uh trend on there right obviously if we only had like these highlighted plays on there with the ownership you probably wouldn't be able to see that so it's not always something that I bring on here in the live stream right not always something that I'm including but I wanted to this time big Vic is Chilla didn't really like him before than heard an interview yeah he's always been a player that I've respected and kind of liked I have to say when he was early on tour and kind of first just breaking out I was a very big critic of his and I was a very like well pronounced one saying that the around the green game had to improve once he did that which was towards the middle of last season it's when he started competing at Majors me that run in the FedEx Cup playoffs last year is when he improved that around the green play and ever since then I've been saying great things about him in fact this recent run has not been great for me because I've played him a lot and how couldn't you like him right guy Just Smiles all the time he's one of the best characters out there on tour and uh yeah I'm sure that wasn't him down in ch I'm sure it was one of his Mega fans right that was a little but hurt about stuff but is what it is what site are the odds from Luke love big boost you'll stack a few chips on that that was hard rock bet so if you see me betting anyone in particular Chris that's going to be Hard Rock bet and uh those were on Monday so they may have shifted a little bit but yeah I would imagine not that much sorry for the confusion bro I meant you called hin turning it around oh I see what you're saying now dude I was like what do you mean I was like dude I'm a I'm a big hland guy so like I I was like wondering why you were calling me out about that it was it was getting me fired up a little bit too I was like what are you talking about bro like I was on the opposite side of that [ __ ] uh so yeah all right cool I guess we're good now dude what's going on Kim would I consider doing a bomber would I consider this a bomber's course not really so I think on Monday I spoke on that a little bit during my course breakdown but my take on it is that it's going to play like 7,300 yards now that I've heard about the fact that about 12 of the holes play downhill I believe like four of them play uphill and two of them are kind of flat um I actually think it's going to play like 7100 yards at least from what I've been told about a lot of the shots is that there's a lot more wedges than what people were thinking in fact there's pole number 10 I believe it's like a 5 40 yard Par Four in fact let me just show you guys here I'll go to Whole 10 on the the sheet over there on PGA tour.com this hole I was told that Rory had a wedge into this now look at the scorecard yardage you're going to roll your ass go what what how right it's 545 yards I was told that guys were hitting the ball 450 on this hole that there's a chance that if somebody can hit like a sprinkler head maybe this cart path down the right that they could break the driving distance record um obviously if they hit this cart path on the right they've got to avoid the trees with their bounce to go out there and break that record but I was told that multiple players today had nine irons in and those would be like your Russell Henley of the world like your normal players I think sjay had like a nineiron into the screen then you had players like Roy with a wedge into a 545 yard Par Four it's a par four by the way not even a par five um I don't know if I can call it a bomber course when even a hole like that right that looks like it would favor the bombers Russell Henley's still hitting in nine iron so um not so much what's going on Zach Dart throw on JT Post in with the putter so I think it would be just that a dart throw the off the T play worried me it a little bit more on Monday um I still think it's a course where you've got to drive the ball well I don't think it's going to be easy for everyone out there but if you're keeping your ball in play I do think there's a lot of scoring to be had so a lot of that's going to come down to his driving accuracy if he can keep the ball in play I like his chances Scotty a big Cowboys fan can't win in the playoffs we'll have to see if he changes that to to this Point you're right right he hasn't won quite yet donkey chalk Max Jesus Christ that's high yeah you're 100% correct uh on a week like this one thing I'll say is that you're going to get players that are extremely high owned like that uh if you want to avoid somebody based on just pure ownership you can but I will remind you that just because somebody's High own does not mean it's the end of the world right if you want to use a Max graser you've just got to get different somebody somewhere else so if you're using him for example you probably don't want to pair him up with a super chalky can't lay and Clark up top maybe if you're using an oar that's slightly lower owns maybe if you're using one of these like8 NK guys that is sub 10% and get away with a Max brazer down low uh one thing you'll the reason why he's that high owned by the way uh and I think it's everyone's projections not just mine out there is that he projects just through the roof I mean look at this right projected fantasy points 55.4 that's 20 nearly 20 more points than pavon right that's 13 more points than Thomas dietry who also think is a pretty solid play this week if you're looking for points per value I I kind of get why he's getting all that ownership especially in the no cut event he can't miss the cut right do I think that Keegan is a good fits he's like a five out of 10 I don't think he's a poor fit by any means Nick but uh I wouldn't call him a good course fit all right let's go through a few players we're g to go tier by tier here talk through some of my thoughts on this slate and uh yeah if there's any specific players you want me to take on I will touch on all of them I do want to add on to that with Keegan the one thing you're getting with Keegan this week is he's a little bit overlooked right's only like 10% owns Which if you're comparing him Nick Dunlop like give me Keegan all day right just because I'm like a five out of 10 on him does not mean that I hate him I'd much rather have a five out of 10 for course fit for form sentiment whatever the case may be right somebody I'm just average on that's about averagely owned then even Dunlop who I get the form I I love the kid right I've sung the praise on Nick Dunlop the entire year $6,900 though 16.4% like I just I can't do it not this kind of field so uh Keegan Bradley I do think's in play but yeah if you have any specific um player questions just let me know guys I wanted to Circle back on my full thoughts there so up top talking through the ownership up here I think you just kind of play your guys up here from 10K plus because the pricing is soft this week you're going to have some legit 6K options if you want to take a spend up option maybe even take two in the same lineup you're going to have no problems with making that lineup construction work the issue is you see that with the ownership like I was talking about before so if you're looking to get different up here your options are very limited um I would say you have an overpriced to Dei that you could go with at 10,500 you've also got an out of form Rory maoy that you could take a shot on both could easily get there right Dey could continue that solid form you never know right go out there and win back-to-back weeks Rory maoy of course could figure out the iron play go out there and have a solid week himself personally I like the more foreshore options up here you guys know I'm playing Scotty schiffler but because I'm not as sold on him I'll be about matching the field out there on Scotty and matching the field on Xander Schley as well which I know sounds like the biggest C out move ever but that's what I'm choosing to do on this given slate I don't want to have to pick my spots up top both guys I think are very alive to go out there and win and because the salary isn't one to one right it's not like it's a $100 difference it's a whole $1,200 going from Scotty down to Xander it does put you in a slightly different lineup composition so I think having both of those different kind of price tags has some utility with my builds uh especially as a 150 maxer it gives me an ability to differentiate a little bit easier out there with my last five spots which isn't going to give me the same sort of like chalky combinations up top so um what it does right it gets me to different guys down low when I'm using each sort of player so if they do both get up there in contention maybe neither one ends up winning but uh they finish top five they make a [ __ ] ton of birdies and they get there that way then I have different combinations of lineups to maybe [ __ ] a GBP so U personally I just like it when it comes to like diversifying my portfolio I'm giving me a different few salb ranges that I'm landing on a little bit further down the board and uh yeah ER is used to playing in elevation so if you want to use that narrative by the way so I've heard that a million times this week about Windom how aren't we mentioning the other players that have played at elevation so I'm sh I'm sure a few other shows have thrown this out there by the way but if you think that windom's going to have a better week because of the altitude first off I think you're [ __ ] I'd love to play you in some head-to-heads out there on DraftKings but if you're going to use that kind of narrative right I'm betting Windom that's not why I'm going out there and using him but if you're going to give him that credit you have to give it to Tony feno Tony fow's from he practices out there for three four months a year so obviously he's pretty familiar with the altitude as well you also have to give it to col Mor Cabo who practices out of Vegas for a lot of the Year obviously maybe not as drastic as what you're going to get out there in Denver but it's still like 3,500 feet so that's goingon to have an impact on play you also got to give it to Xander Xander also lived out in Vegas for like four or five years and it's presser this week he talked about being familiar out there with the elevation you also have to give the guys that have played while elevation in the past right a boost and believe it or not guys if you look at the courses at elevation number one in the world in terms of shots gained is Rory maory right so if you're using that kind of narrative which I think's [ __ ] I'm using it zero% in my modeling this week I could not give a [ __ ] whether you're from elevation or not if you're gonna do that you have to give all those other players credit too right you can't just say oh windom's from Colorado he's gonna win this week you're full as [ __ ] like I said give me all the head-to heads on DraftKings if you want if you're thinking that sort of way because I know I can win against that sort of play player that has that kind of just brain dead mindset goes out there goes oh Colorado means he'll play well like thank you I I'll take all of your entry fees over there on draftking so if you're thinking that way and again maybe you're a less experienced player I'm not trying to call you out too much but that kind of thinking is is not going to win you money long term out there in gpps so if you're going to use that narrative I guess just spread the love out a little bit it doesn't have to be all about Windam Clark if you're going to choose to take that kind of mindset I I do think you're brain dead if you're going out there and you're doing that sort of thing but if you choose to do so it just can't be about one player terms of the ownership of this 9k range as I've mentioned it's a lot more spread out so if there are spots if there are spots here since say that you can go out there and get a little bit cute with but nobody that's going to be like a true leverage option so somebody that go be still got at about 11% I've still got guys down here at like 9% ownership even if they're going to be low owned and unfortunately it's guys like Billy horel that are way overpriced same Burns who you know I think he's playing well I don't think you could argue with that based on how he's played the last month or so but $9,400 is pretty expensive in this kind of field so the uh this part of the board I think the chalk is probably worthy of being a chalk I mean I bet Windam Clark I bet Patrick HL so as you could probably tell I'm not getting very different in this range but I am using guys like a Tony fenel SP you know in certain lineups to at least punt the range when it comes to ownership he's about average out there at about 133% so he's not going to be like chalky go out there and make you have to worry about that with your other five six spots but he's also not going to get you different down there um I guess you could say the same thing about Victor I guess I'm going to point this out with Victor reason why I'm playing him this week is when this guy gets catches a feel when he goes out there he finds his ball flate he runs with it you saw it last year he went out there went on that run at the same time of the year that's not the reason why I'm getting to a Victor hind it's the form it's the fact that he looks to have found that left to right ball flight that fade that he's searching for and he's also a player that loves this golf course and how do I know that he loves this golf course well because he said so in his interview this week he told the interviewers that it's one of his favorite courses that he scene that he likes the birdie looks out there he said there's a lot of like easy par fors which I don't know they didn't look that easy to me on paper right 500 like 40 yards he said there's quote unquote a lot of birdy looks out there and then you have the par fives so he sounds like the kind of player that first off is accepting the challenge this week um wasn't bitching about the ball not going the right distance there were plenty of players by the way if you read the transcripts that bitched all day about the B the ball not going the correct distance if I was going to read into the tea leaves there a little bit I would say that I would kind of want to avoid in general the players that were you know bitching about that because they probably didn't have the best practice session whereas if somebody was like this course is really cool that's what Victor hin said he said also said he really liked it about four or five different times when he gave the answer that's the kind of guy that maybe I give some extra attention to now it's narrative based that should not be your entire process just like I give people [ __ ] for doing the thing about the altitude and saying like oh he's from the Midwest therefore he play well in the midwest um the same thing applies here right don't go too crazy when you're going down narrative land but uh it is nice to hear when you're going through somebody's transcript and uh they're very positive about the golf course so I say that a lot about Majors if you hear somebody complaining that the golf course is too difficult think of wam Clark this year at a lot of the majors right outside of Valhalla uh in fact I think all the majors has kind of been a stinker this year that's uh that's why right A lot of times they're just not comfortable with how they're going to play I think most infamously right was Windam Clark talking about Pinehurst and uh if memory serves me correctly he didn't have the best Pinehurst performance I also got um Tony fenal worth noting that he's coming in with some really good form himself so I mentioned him as like an averagely owned play here but he's number five in long-term ranking he's number seven in recent form ranking in fact he's number four in the field when it comes to his total model ranking so I was surprised that he wasn't chalk so I guess I put him on the spreadsheet just to point that out as I thought he was going to be maybe the most popular player down here in the 9k range and he's like I said about average ownership down there so I think very reasonable donkey chalk Max we already talked about that yeah I agree with that though he is donkey chock um thoughts on pendrith so getting a little ahead of ourselves but I'll talk about pendrith real quick so he's down here at about 7,300 I think he'll be slightly more popular than he probably should be I do like the fact that he's both long and pretty accurate off the te so from the off the te perspective I think fit that kind of narrative he's a decent enough putter out there on the bent POA surface but as you can see here he's higher own than most other guys in this range they've got guys like Denny McCarthy at like 8.5% Brian Harman 9.8 so he's not going to get you different but at the same time if you're getting different at one two other spots in your lineup I mean you can get away with that this 14.3% is a little bit higher than average ownership in this range but it's not completely out of hand right it's not a 23% like you have down there in graser where it's impacting the rest of your lineup pretty significantly right if you're taking like a 23% owned guy at $6,300 you're you're really going to have to worry about ownership at two three other Spots You're going to have to force in some guys that are sub 10% and you can't fall asleep right when you're building those kind of lineups you use a pendrith and you know it doesn't have that same kind of effect right you can use him and get away with it so I don't think he's the worst play by any means let's uh keep going on through these different TI here so down here in the 8K range I would also say it's lower owned than what we're used to seeing so if we start here at Cory Connors and Go the whole way down here to bazay hoot you can see really the only player getting a bunch of steam as I mentioned before would be Aaron Ry and O baa is about 133% so definitely above average ownership out there on oay but regardless of who you're using down here you're going to be getting quite a bit of Leverage so if you want to start with one of these 10K players by all means I think that's a good idea especially going to feel this strong right one of your top end guys probably going to at worst finish in the top three so uh you're going to probably want at least one of those guys right out there in your lineup if you were to skip this double stud so a lot of guys they're going to take one up there and then try and fit in a second out there into that lineup if you went 110k and then skipped this 9k went down here to the eights and then maybe took like a JT we'll talk about here in a second uh maybe Ox shade too down there $8,400 that kind of lineup construction is I don't I don't think it's going to be as popular as that double spend up and it gives access to slightly lower ownership right for your second third man in you're no longer in this like 15 to maybe even 19.4% range or 17% range like you have there with Windam Clerk and instead you have access to a sunjay 8.4% a sub 10% owned JT who's played very well elevation in the past um definitely on the table and now let's talk about JT if there's one guy I'm using the elevation narrative on it's a low own Justin Thomas and it's not that he's from a place with elevation like oh we're guessing that he's going to you know love playing with the extra distance it's that we've heard him say in the past that he loves playing at elevation and that he's proven it to us if you take a look at the WGC down there in Mexico City at chapot Tech I cannot say the name of that golf course so make fun of me all all I want for saying it that way but uh yeah that Golf Course is at like 7800 feet which is even higher elevation than what we have this week he shot a 59 to go out there and win once he's gone out there I believe he's finished top five like five of his last six years at that WGC um I don't know I I would rather lean into that narrative than to be like oh this guy's from Utah right Tony fow and go out there and play him for that reason right i' I'd much rather actually have tangible results at that style of golf course and use that to go out there and make a play I guess you could say that about Rory too right he has actual tangible results at golf courses at elevation same event down in Mexico he's had an insanely good track record but also on the DP World Tour when they play in Sweden um not Sweden sorry uh the Swiss Alps down in that direction he's had a lot of success over there as well so I don't know these are the sort of guys if you're going to play a narrative this week make it a narrative that has some statistical backing uh don't go out there and just hope that you're getting it right would be my recommendation also worth noting with JT that he puts a lot better on these bent POA greens than other surfaces and I know right he's losing Strokes to the field on the surface but he loses less Strokes to the field out there on B POA than any other surface in fact he's about four strokes better per round on BPA than what you've seen from him lately so definitely due for some regression they've got Davis Thompson as a interestingly higher owned than he probably should be you see I got him there at like 14% ownership so that's a a little bit far from ideal if you're trying to go out there and play him so personally going to keep me off of him a little bit um I like pendrith a little bit more so was much more in consideration out there for my exposure but uh in this range there are a lot of pivots that you can mix in so uh McIntyre is not going to be one you can see he's also about 15% ownership but you've got your norns your Benny ANS your Denny McCarthy's that are certainly within play I mentioned Keegan before right he's definitely an option that you can get to for a little bit of Leverage and in this range if you're using any of these like eight to 10 Perc owned players it's going to offset some of that chalk so maybe you're taking one maybe two chalky guys towards the top and heck maybe you're even using like a I don't know an Eric coold down here a Dun loock somebody like Razer that's like 23% owned as long as you have some pivots here in the 7K range you throw in one of the sub 10 percenters down here in the 8ks you're probably going to be okay out there in the large fi GBP and that would be just if you're spending all your salary right building you know regular lineups you could probably find enough leverage to make those kind of lineups work now when we get to the lineup construction segment while we're going to build a few lineups together I'm going to give you guys some ideas on how to get even more different out there in your builds um I guess hint hint leaving salary on the table hint hint potentially changing up your lineup construction out there with your build but uh yeah even if you just want to go with the pure ownership angle there are guys down here to make that work so we're not going to point out any down here as specific plays uh over there on the patreon page of course you guys can see who I'm using for some leverage but this part of the board outside of you know a conviction play out there in Robert McIntyre who I'm taking at 15% most of my exposure are sub 10 percenters guys that I'm taking for a little bit of Leverage down here in the 6K range I want to point out Thom dri we also had a question about him before he's an example of one of those low players that I'm getting to the form isn't great is's actually losing Strokes to the field over his last 12 measured rounds what I do like about dri though is that on the DP World Tour when you've seen him at events that are in the mountains or you know like the Swiss event that I was talking about before he has some top finishes over there including a win at an event at elevation and he's the kind of player that hits the ball long way he's got an extremely high ball Flight of the guys on the field he's going to get one of the bigger impacts when it comes to the altitude effect as a yeah higher ball flight you have the further the ball is going to fly with that thin air so somebody like dietre I don't think it's like a guarantee that he plays well he's gonna have to drive the ball keep it in play if he's going to go out there and have himself a week but if he does so I think he has a lot of upside because he's such a strong driver of the ball hits the ball long way out there a very streaky Putter and as I think that the course has uh started to look easier and easier as the week has gone on it makes me think that somebody like dri is even more so on play so I wasn't really on drie until this afternoon when I had to go out there and find some low owned options but he was low owned he fit the narrative out there from some other courses that play the same sort of way and uh is why I took him at 99.1% brazin still using it 23% but uh if I'm using him in lineups right I just know that I'm not going to get different there but pavon down here at six grand flat so cheapest player um or tied for cheapest player that we have in our repertoire he's 6.8% own so you if you're going to go the whole way down the board there are a few guys down here I think you can get some leverage on Chris Kirk by the way is in some form lately I spell the beans I'm using them out there for this week he's also played about capala which I think is a pretty decent comp course so he's uh definitely a sleeper option but there are guys down here to get different with so even if you're taking the double spend up which again I think will be a very chalky build this week you have guys at the minimum price other than graser right I think graser's going to be by far the most popular option that people are going down there and punting with but you have other guys that you know they're risky plays but they they still have that upside they can get to at sub 10% so I think if you're going to go studs and Duds it's just about doing it responsibly and I think honestly the lineups where I'm going to use graser in the most this week I still have to build mine after we get off live stream here are probably going to be non double spend UPS so lineups where I'm not going like two guys over 10K I'm probably a lot more likely to take raser as he's not going to be as used as much out there in those kind of builds right people that are more balanced you're going to have more salary to spend and uh we're going to talk about it when we get to lineup construction but I plan on leaving quite a bit of salary on the table on a lot of the lineups that I'm entering so if I'm going to do that and I'm starting with a non-double spend up it would make a lot of sense to have to go down here to like a $6,300 grazer so that I can leave that salary on the table so as I said we're going to talk about some creative ways to go out there and build lineups here in a few minutes but uh you know using graser in those kinds of builds is probably what I'm going to do to try and stay away from duplicating and um having a lack of Leverage out there compared to other lineups but pavon I do want to talk about why I liked him at 6.8% so the putting on bent paa is really good that was the main reason I'm going out there and playing him but he's also a very strong driver of the golf ball he's got a predictable ball flight and he's playing his best golf he's capable of gaining across all four stat categories he's definitely a little bit inconsistent with the irons at times which uh you expect for 6K golfer right you're only getting so much down here at this kind of price tag but just like I say all the time with these pure punt plays it's not who you're getting down low all the time it's what it's buying you up top and what it's buying you up top is a ticket to a double spend up without having a 25% owned player and the unfortunate part about graser is that in double spend UPS he's probably going to be 40% owned right so even if he is only like 23% out there in the large field GBP in lineups that are starting with 2 10K plus players it's probably at least 40% of lineups they are going to go down to graser as their punt if you know that and this this is why right if I'm going double spend up I'm probably not using graser then take anyone else as a pivot play down low and hope that they're the one that gets there as opposed to graser so that in the large field gpp you're not playing against 30% of the field that has the same value option down low instead you can have that piece of Leverage that in some cases right it's going to be like sub seven 8% owns that is really going to move you up those leader board so I think that this is a week where you have to be especially careful about your lineup construction and uh that's why my lineups aren't done right it's why I have the coffee over here to keep me up for the next few hours because uh I'm going to be doing a lot it's going to be a lot more involved this week going out there and setting groups to go out there and make sure I'm making my lineups correctly so we're going to go over any specific player questions if you have any down in chat but uh this uh lineup construction segment that we're about to get to is going to be more important than most that's for sure what are my thoughts on the well I think that he's a decent low owned option so if you're looking to get leverage he's in play for that kind of play but uh I don't want to give away whether I'm using him or not this week so I'm going to leave it at there he's low owned and he's a good GBP play Sean says do I like Denny I'm going to say the same thing about that a good low owned option if you want to get a little bit different but if you do want my full take on them I'll say check out the patreon page in terms of course fit with both they're both more like putting Centric sort of players so Denny kthy right you'd be leaning into the bent POA stats um thala's ball striking lately has been it's hasn't been horrible but it definitely hasn't been his sharpest stuff I don't think that either one is my favorite play of this week but um certainly not out of play I want to say that much I uh again I'm not going to tip by hand on whether I'm using either one but yeah definitely low owned which is intriguing and I'm probably giving away what I'm doing by saying that but uh yeah decent leverage spots for sure all right let's hop over to the DraftKings and uh let's let's build a few lineups together so if I'm building in the larg field gpp this week which I'll be doing for all my builds be 150 lineups um out there in the $5 out there this week then I'm really going to have to think about my lineup construction I'm going to spend all of my salary then I really have to be forcing in some low owned plays and as I was mentioning before it's a lot more difficult when you only have 50 players to choose from so if I'm going to start with that kind of build it's going to be really tough if I go with the double spend up so if I were to take Sheffer and then try and force in let's say like a can't lay as my second man in first off that puts us the whole way down to $6,900 remaining but unless we're taking you know the guys down here like pavon that I mentioned maybe a dri at $6,600 if you're going with any of the chalk down here which of course would include graser that I mentioned and Eric Cole's going to be super chalky down here Dunlop at $6,900 is going to be about nearly 20% ownership if you're using these kind of guys down low like maybe it's a graser Dunlop the product ownership of these four players is just not going to get the job done so if if you're going to go double spend up my recommendation would be to to make a real pivot down low would be to maybe use a Chris Kirk at $6,100 maybe that's where you use somebody like a Matthew pavon that is going to be sub eight% ownership to go out there and offset some of that so it's not like you have to get crazy different at every single spot so like d for example right he's like 9% owned so he's lower owned than most but certainly not a super low owned Leverage play by any means you use these sort of players and you can start to get away with some of that chalk up top so you know though I think that you can take some ownership this week it's going to have direct consequences on the rest of your build if you choose to take that ownership up top you're really going to have to force in some of that differentiation with the other three four spots so with 65 uh sorry 765 remaining for our last two spots let's go with a Adam Scott I like Adam Scott this week also not crazy ownership and then uh hell you could probably use a Keegan Bradley and roundoff this kind of lineup now because we have pavon sub s% because we have dri at like sub 10% we could probably enter this kind of lineup uh and get away with it so like for example if I threw in you know Keegan Bradley here I I would enter This and like the big $5 big 25 could it duplicate sure but it it's probably not going to duplicate out there in that kind of contest maybe it will now right that have thrown it out here on live stream but uh otherwise it probably would not have duplicated out there however there is a world where you want to start can't lay and sheffler and then you want to use graser down low right like there's there's definitely a world a lot of people love graser this week right projections through the roof I get it you don't have to be that kind of guy if you do want to be here's how you can make that kind of lineup work so as I mentioned before if you're going to take this much chalk and hell I I think even three pieces like this would be too much but let's throw in one more just for the sake of this line L up so I'm going to throw in an e root at $6,300 so another super cheap about 15% owned player now we've got four really high-end players here this is this is where it starts to become problematic and when I was thinking through my lineup building process this week I'm just going to Spill the guts here I I was highly considering not having this talk because uh it is what I'm going to use to generate an edge this week but if you're still here still here for DFS first off go ahead and smash the like button because I'm going out there and um Distributing this information but the more that I was thinking about the Slate I was thinking about the ownership in particular especially with some of these uh studs and Duds builds I was like if I'm going to go studs and Duds my ownership is starting to look a lot like an MMA lineup and I've been playing MMA DFS for a while and uh the number one thing I do when I'm playing MMA DFS is I run lineups that are very close to the optimal so I don't change projections very much from the different providers that I get it from and then I run my optimal lineups I get kind of a sense where the field is going to come in and then all I do I hate that I'm saying this because it's giving away too much probably when I build lineups I just send an ex a cap with my salary spent so the issue with building lineups in MMA if you guys have done it before it's a way bigger issue when it than when it comes to golf because there's only like 14 to 20 Fighters that you can choose from is duplicating with other people and long term if you're playing at The Big Field gpps right it's all about just not duplicating yourself making sure that you have that Leverage The Edge that I usually have with MMA is just leaving Sou salary on the table I will just bet that the optimal lineup is not going to spend all $50,000 because more often than not by the way if you've been tracking this out there with MMA it does not spend all $50,000 now the same thing is true in golf DFS week to week usually doesn't spend all $50,000 but at a week like this with pricing is as soft as it is especially with like legit six 7K golfers that might top 10 this week that's even more so the case so I was like going through this PLL on here I'm like yeah I could see some of these slap dicks really showing up especially now that it's a birdie Fest and all the putters are kind of live like uh Denny for example before a JT poon had no chance for me on Monday uh I thought with the driving test they were out of there there was no chance they could even show up in the top five top 10 they're not going to win this event those sort of players but they could certainly crack that top 10 so now the the more and more I was thinking about I'm like you know what anyone can win here the opal's not for sure going to spend all your salary this week and even if it has Scotty let's say Scotty wins by five it does not mean you're still going to spend all your salary and use a Scotty shuffler so what I'm doing if I want to be a chalk donkey this week and I'm going to be with some L as I said I like guys like can't lay shuffler and I really like rasman still if I'm doing that I have a very simple process this week when building my lups I'm gonna leave at least $500 on the table because no one else does that now this week I think more people are going to do it just because there's less players to choose from but if I leave $500 to $700 on the table in this lineup it is not going to matter at all who I go out there and take Tak in this lineup uh it'll be different it will not duplicate itself it might have some leverage issues but it certainly will not be duplicated out there in the gpp which is honestly the main thing that I'm trying to avoid here so I'm going to throw in a Matt Fitzpatrick who's is relatively low owned and then for my last minut in here we're going to go down into the 6K range and um throw in a Tom hogy and leave a whole $1,100 on the table this kind of lineup I would usually never get to just because it's leaving like a whole thousand on the table but you can't tell me that this combination of six players seems all that bad because it's not right normally you'd be getting at least these kind of six players at any sort of Tour event and you'd be spending all of your salary right if not a worse lineup than these six players even at like a major right like you'd have a hard time feing Scotty Klay Fitzy and then uh normally guys like ekro hogi right like 71 7,500 out there in a major now they're $6,300 $6,400 Tom hogi this lineup has a chance to be the optimal right now uh this one has about the same amount of chance as any other different combination out there but the point being that you you'll get different with the same kind of combination just by leaving that salary on the table so I probably said too much that's what I'm using as a lot of my Edge this week because honestly out there in the large fi gpps it's more about not duplicating yourself than anything out there in those kind of contests I live by that in MMA it's how I go out there and play u now there's only like 20 fighters on that so it's easier to find the optimal lineup out there for MMA which is why it's even more important just not to duplicate yourself right because if it's going to be easier to get to the optimal and more people are going to get there you want to share it with less people but in a 50 Player golf field now I know it's it's still way more than 20 Fighters that you're working with a lot of the same Concepts apply it's uh again it's not one to one I was just trying to give you guys the best comparison that I can but I think if you're going to be a little bit more chalky this week that there are ways to make that work now the other way that you can go out there and build some lineups would be to maybe change up your lineup construction so just as I was saying that that you know studs and Duds is going to be what everyone is getting to if you are more balanced about it you decide to you know maybe avoid that 10K plus range you can take a little bit more chalk so I'm going to throw in a Klay here a wind clerk I'm also going to throw in an Aaron Ry who I actually don't like this week but I'm just going to throw him in here just for the sake of this video and I'm even going to throw in like a a Robert McIntyre here at $7,600 because this lineup Construction is going to be a lot more balanced you can see we still have 7,400 for our last few spots and maybe we use a Denny McCarthy maybe we go down here and throw in like a a Taylor pendri or their last man in no one in this lineup is really low owned right like your lowest owned player is like a 9% owned Denny McCarthy here this lineup because it's so balanced is going to have a lower chance of being duplicated than some of those studs and Duds lineups just based on lineup construction alone then you add in the fact that right you weren't taking like those 25% o chalk donkeys down in the 6K range and uh I think it brings you a lot of upside over there so again hopefully that line of construction segment you found it a little bit helpful right whether you choose to build lineups like me or not right obviously it's just my personal take on the Slate hopefully it gives you some perspective into how I think about things right and what I'm looking for in terms of trying to find the optimal because it changes week to week right 156 man field we have to change you know treat a lot differently than what we're going to treat this 50 man no cut field and it should impact your lineup building process particularly when you know everyone's dealing with the same sort of rules right you got to go out there try and think what you think is going to be the best way to attack the kind of slate personally that's how I'm going about it so we'll catch up on any DFS questions that is all I've got for that side of things we're going to turn our Focus over to the prop side now so we'll look at Underdog and some prize pick stuff I also pick six if you guys have any questions over there but yeah any last second DFS questions go ahead and hit me up down in the chat right now and if you're just here for DFS still appreciate you guys stopping by the live stream whether you guys were down there live hitting this up with some questions or you're watching this on replay go ahead smash that like button if you guys haven't already looks like we've got over 100 people down there in the live chat so I know that this is a hard one to ask for but hey if all of you could like it we could get over 100 likes so we can uh obviously only work on that and trying to get as close to that as possible so if you're one of those 100 people down there and you haven't already hit that like button first off what the hell are you guys waiting for but uh let's pump up those numbers so let me catch up on chat let me get a sip of this coffee and uh we'll figure out what we're doing here so another great show thanks Luke everyone do not forget to hit the like button hey he's doing my job for me down there appreciate you Nick good call Nick might have forgot you came late to class tisk tis tis got to get around to it Chris let's go ahead hit it hit it now right better late than never let's talk about some prop stuff so as I said you guys if you were here earlier at least you heard my thoughts on this I think the golf course is going to play a little bit easier this year um and it's different course right it's not like we can compare it to other BMW championships but the golf course is soft from everything that we've heard conditions tomorrow look relatively calm so I I don't think it's going to be particularly demanding from that aspect and because we have the four par fives in play I think there's a chance this plays a whole two strokes under par so beginning the week I thought it might play like even to plus two now I'm in that like even part of minus two range so early on I was very hesitant to bet the board because I thought it would make sense if it was going to play about even par but now that I think it's going to play like minus two right to have guys like Rory at a minus two projection right 70 Strokes would be minus two for the par 72 setup I think that there's some value out there on some under so I did take Scotty when he was at 69 Strokes you can see unfortunately that one has moved 0 five but this Rory maay prop has not so we only have um props posted over there on Caesar William Hill right now um DraftKings FanDuel don't have the round score stuff posted so we don't really have that to compare to but what you'll see over here um is that is at 695 now he is minus 130 towards the over but now we're getting them with that push push Equity I should say out there minus two so I like them for that again if the course plays is easy as some of the people are saying then I think this is a no-brainer and I guess just to give you guys the Insight that I was talking about I've talked to a few caddies I've gotone Insight via other content creators um based on what they've heard from Cades out there on site and what I've heard across the board I have not had a conflicting report to this point is that something around 20 under par is going to win so somebody said 18 under one said 20 one said 22 under par as I said earlier so with that in mind if the winning score is going to be like 20 under par these Elite tier players are shooting like at least two three under par for most days you would imagine if not someone closer to like four or five under par now not every single one of them is going to get into contention right shoot someone like four or five under par every single day but you'd have to imagine that like a good amount of them are right are going to shoot four or 500 par per day um guys like Rory are probably going to average something like 200 par now the reason why he probably hasn't bumped down is compared to other guys on the board that have is he's coming in with absolute dog [ __ ] form so if you're trying to find somebody that is playing well hitting into this event he is probably not your guy but uh there is one prop over here in Underdog that I think is undeniable value and I honestly cannot believe like has not move to this point because uh I played it over there in my patreon I think it's one of the best value props that we've ever seen over here on on the site so let me go ahead and point it out and did they take it down H it's a Windam Clark top 20 and I never bet these over here an underdog but they really screwed up the Windam Clark prop and it looked like they might have come around on it so yeah look at this they took it off the board they had a Windam Clark top 20 prop posted at um a 1.3x multiplier towards the over and I already had DraftKings up to go out there and uh compare this to but if we go over here and we find the BMW Championship he's like minus 65 to top 20 so you go over here you find the top 20 tab you can see here Windam clerk is minus 165 for the top 20 so maybe they repost that one over here it was 0 five top 10 finishing POS I'm sorry top 20 finishing position but uh that was 1.1x out there towards the over so if that one comes back on the board definitely make sure to check it out because that's one of the better props in my opinion so trying to find a few other ones on here it looks like everything is bumping or at least uh yeah all the stroke stuff seem to be bumping over over here I want to do a double check on something it's supposed to be raining over there in Denver right now so I just want to do a little uh check up the weather app real quick and see what's going on because it wasn't a guarantee that it's going to rain but I want to see what we've got so nothing yet it's supposed to rain 0.1 Ines over the next two hours so they're not going to get a ton of rain tonight but they definitely will get a little bit of a drizzle to go out there and make the course softer so I had a hland under 70 Strokes they bumped that one so yeah the only prop on here that hasn't moved that I took was this uh Rory maoy under so yeah maybe not a slip on that side over here on the prize pick side though let's see what we've got what is going on with this board is it going to do the thing again when I do this that it just doesn't load oh my god dude what is going on with the whole prize piix thing when I'm on live stream guys it's the only time I have issues out here on the site when I'm like doing my own props and stuff I never once get that weird loading screen over there on prize pick so it looks like I think I got it to work so I can refresh this but it's like they don't want us to show you guys the prop on live stream like they they know that we're going to rob them out there and they they want to hold us back come on now and you do it from memory if I have to I know what I took over here on prize picks so I can just tell you guys what I took but I'd rather be able to show you the projections right and show you why I like them and all of that but if it comes down to that we'll do that so I guess I'll just tell you so the props that I thought made a little bit of sense over there let me just bring it up on my patreon so I can read off the actual description for it just make it even easier for us out there one was an over on sunji and pars or better so he's at 15 and a half pars or better or at least was out there a few hours ago I like that him for an over he's top four in bogey avoidance over the last 24 measured rounds uh that's only trailing by the way a Scotty shuffler Xander shley number two and then Aaron Ry out there at number three so sunm number four out there on that bogey of Ence list and with what I think is going to be around like a two and a half bogey average maybe even down the whole way to two if it plays as easy as some people are calling for you know a guy like him that's been top four in the category lately you'd have to think that he's going to avoid Bogies better than most so that's why I took him for the over on pars or better again that's 15 and a half on prize picks i' show you on here but as you can see it's not even loading the projections slapped ex site out there on price pick so I guess we shouldn't be that surprised by it and then the other prop I took not sure if they still have them at 70 Strokes right I mentioned that uh they already moved hin down to 69 a half over here in Underdog but on prize picks they did have them at 70 Strokes so if you can find that prop out there by all means go out there and mix it in and just to show you the Sportsbook line out there on these sort of players um let's find Victor hin so he's at 70 and a half and he is Juiced a little bit towards the under so you can see here right 70 and a half he is minus 140 under so I don't think that 70 Strokes is like a bad projection by any means but I I do think it makes sense to take an under there um with again most of the the Caddy's on course reporters saying that they think it's going to play pretty easy this week and then to show you some of the bogey stuff so they do have bogey props posted over here on the site you can see they have guys like keki at minus 180 under minus 200 under right out there for a Colin more cabba I mean even like your average players in this field maybe above average player right like a Russell hanley's minus 155 towards the under so though sunj actually sunj does have a line over here he's at even money it makes absolutely no sense right like you have guys that are worse bogey avoiders again he's top four in the field over the last 24 measured rounds that are like minus 175 like for example he's a better bogey avoider than Tommy Fleetwood he's a a better bogy avoider than some of these other top end players it just doesn't make sense that he would be even money as compared to these other ones that are like minus 180 or minus 200 so it's uh again maybe not a plus EV lean but if you're looking at recent form and just how the guy actually plays he's a top 30 bogey avoider out there in the PGA Tour which again is better than Hideki which is better than some of the other guys that we're comparing to um I think he should be Juiced towards the under like some of those other players so that was it on prize picks again I'll refresh this see if we can get this to work but their slap dick site does not seem to want to C cooperate with us uh again it only happens when we're on live stream which is oddly suspicious if it were to go out there and ask me but is what it is all right so let's look at over here on the underdog side I wanted to see if there's anything else we could mix in um they did have a zorse at 71 a half unfortunately that one moved down by 0 five I guess a a GT I'll Point them out I didn't end up playing this JT prop yet I'm definitely have it on my short list to potentially add tomorrow but if this is going to play to like a minus two scoring average hell even if it's like a minus one scoring average give me JT to match or beat the field he's the kind of player that's gaining Strokes to the field over his last 24 baset rounds he's played well at altitude right I mentioned his really solid success down there in Mexico City at the WGC I think is a they're a lot worse plays that you could take it 71 stroke so that would be it for Underdog I guess if they do end up reposting that Wham Clark top 20 prop um definitely mix that in if it's still like 1.1x out there towards the S but yeah this this Rory prop out there at 70 Strokes is uh I know the form's not there I know I made fun of him a lot last week for how he played but you to think he bounces back at some point right like obviously he wasn't trying rounds three and four you can kind of tell that with his strategy especially out there on Sunday I'm taking on shots that he had no business taking on this week he gets a clean slate gets to go out there and start even par just like everyone else hopefully and I guess it's hopefully right fingers crossed out there for him he doesn't go out there and do the same thing as last week because if he does he's got no chance to go under that sort of line let me see if we can bring up pick six the whole DraftKings thing is I mean not draft me thing the the whole prize piix thing is just a joke like how is their site that broken that you can't look at it on a live stream like it's a I don't know a little bit questionable if you ask me but let's go over here to pick six so the board looks pretty comparable to what we have in some of these other sites in fact they may actually have these a little bit lower than what we have there comparatively and something to note is even though we don't have the DraftKings odds out there for the single round so you can see on here right like they only have lowest score lowest part three score and stuff their pick six board is I identical every round that they do to what they post for their normal stroke stuff and what I'm seeing here right is that they have guys lower than what they have over there on Caesars so if they had a board posted guys what I mean by this is that all these guys would likely be at these exact numbers now Scotty might be Juiced under 60 and a half whereas you know Xander might be closer to even money right just like Rory is probably Juiced under 69 and a half whereas you know a guy like Winden would probably be Juiced over the 69 and a half if they had their odds up something that I've noticed that is always the same like literally their odds over here on their regular book compared to pick six are always spot in line so though we don't have them to compare to I would venture to say and again this is me assuming and this is not me knowing for sure if they had odds posted this is what they would have gone with I would have to imagine so that is actually uh I don't think that there's a lot of value on this board right that being said I do think it plays easier than like what Caesars was calling for but it is worth noting comparatively that DraftKings right who does the pick six stuff post the same odds over right over there in their Normal book has stuff lower in terms of their birdies they have some four and a halfs posted um all comparable to what we have on the other sites so like for example Rory at four and a half I think that one's a pretty sharp over let's see fantasy points never my favorite category but let's see if there's anything that is like drastically off doesn't look like it at first glance but always worth looking at two and a half Bogies for some of these kind of players I already told you guys I like that sunm right under Bogies or over 15 and a half pars or better so maybe that could be an option and then with Strokes let me see if any really stood out I don't think so again they're like 0. five to an entire stroke lower than what we have in other books I guess the one thing to really point out from this pick six board um would be the pricing for strokes right as I said DraftKings usually just copy and paste them over there from website to website so let me double check real quick let me see if FanDuel has posted anything for rounds score um we already know that DraftKings hasn't quite yet but uh FanDuel also hasn't had anything up so maybe it changed you never know uh I would expect them to post it probably after play starts and they can compare a little bit but uh yeah just like before they still don't have any odds posted over here so it's uh again a lot of unknowns that's likely why they're avoiding posting the board they don't want to get tripped up too much if they get the pricing wrong but based on what we got on pick six I've got a sneaking suspicion that DraftKings and probably FanDuel as well thinks that this is going to play like a pretty easy golf course so I feel pretty good about the leans that we've taken if you guys need to add anything right now again it's this under on Rory this under on JT at 71 strokes and then on prize picks though it won't load it would be the over on sunj M pars are better at 15 and a half and then an under on Victor hland at 70 Strokes not sure if any of that bumped let me know down in chat if they have but that is my take for this thought it would be minus5 or 17 yeah I thought it would be minus 10 so I I've definitely changed my stance quite a bit what's the 18th hole what is the par on it so I'll show you right now so you go over here to the tour cast I'll show you 18 pretty sure it's a par four it's a long par for at that so let me show you so it's 514 yards I've heard that multiple players were hitting wedge into whole 18 so this plays uphill as you can see from the imagery but because of the ball going so much further I've heard some players literally hitting a wedge into it which is again it's it's why my stance has changed so much like if it's really going to play that short then throw the scorecard yardage out that's for sure both are still up and haven't bumped there we go good [ __ ] has been up for a few days not sure if they're showing up on the main tab um are you talking about for pick six or what are you talking about Bill honestly not sure what you're talking about but either way we're all good all right that's all I've got for the live stre though guys going to go ahead and hop on out of here so I can go out there build my lineups myself but hopefully you feel a little bit more prepared for all the action out there this week and can go out there and make it a good one for yourself best of luck as I said smash the like button if you guys haven't already and as we do for all these different golf tournaments we'll be doing the same thing out there for rounds two through four so for Showdown rounds two through four make sure to stop on by for that be going live just a little bit after the round dens giving you guys a weather report for All The Showdown slates uh how to go out there and attack the golf course uh I mentioned before right maybe the PM plays easier than the morning well we'll be able to Circle back on that right take a look at the scoring averages figure out what the heck is going on with this venue and to hopefully continue the momentum heading throughout the rest of the weekend so we're doing props there as well so Props rounds two through four make sure to Circle back on for those and uh subscribe so you don't miss when I'm going live for all of that also over there on X Twitter if you guys follow me on that page I'm always tweeting when I'm going live so you guys know when to expect some of those live streams and all that sort of business so make sure to check it out check out the patreon page as well if you haven't already if you guys like the ownership projections that you saw throughout the content you want to see my entire player po to see all the modeling that I'm doing for all these s um certain different players uh make sure to check out the patreon there's a link in the description of the video to that as well and on there is how you can get access to those sheets yourself of course right when you download them it's not going to be blacked out like you saw there in the live stream it's going to be all the information at your fingertips but that's all I've got guys best of luck as I said before and uh let's have ourselves a week