Round 2 Preview - 2023 BMW Championship : DFS Showdown, Underdog and Prize Picks Plays w/ Gsluke DFS

foreign [Music] go fans it's your boy GS Luke here with our live stream for round two of the BMW Championship gonna go through props and of course DFS for tomorrow and make sure you're prepared to go out there and get all of your exposure in so to make sure you're prepared we'll go through a look at the golf course today make sure we're all caught up with what's happened in terms of conditions after afterwards we're going to focus on tomorrow right we're going to take a look at the weather some of the conditions expected there for Friday and then wrap it up with our thoughts for DFS and for props right how I'm attacking each slate we'll go through a few plays that are like along the way but more than anything right I want to give you guys the information you need to go out there and incorporate your own process right some of the plays we go over you may agree with right some of them you might want to go out there and fade right it's your own process your own exposure I'm not going to tell you how the video lineups but I do want to tell you though so go out there and uh create your process right go out there do the research know where the edge is going to be tomorrow and hopefully go out there and exploit it so today for main slate pretty decent we made a little bit of money on jock market and prize picks you know maybe not our best day on Underdog right obviously poor days will happen you'll have bad reads from time to time and uh the Sportsbook industry today uh absolutely dropped the ball right every single sports book prop site it out there all thought I was gonna play a lot more difficult than it did and those soft conditions well it looked a lot like The Wyndham Championship out there right not so much the US Open from 2020 so we're gonna talk about the changes maybe that changes our modeling our outlook for Showdown a little bit and then of course for props we're gonna have a completely different mindset here for the rest of the tournament I did mention yesterday that I did think that there's a chance right the golf course would play easy well uh after round one a bunch of four or five under par rounds it looks like the Instinct ended up being right right I told you maybe 15 under par would win at this stage I think that's a pretty good guess it should firm up a little bit as the next few days go on and you're probably going to see a slightly harder Golf Course here on Saturday and Sunday uh than what we see for the first two days so let's bring up the stats and start to go through it if you're down there in live chat say hi and uh we'll get right on into this thing so I see we got a few people down there interested to see how props are going to look after today yeah it'll be uh an interesting board thank you Luke for the Gir bangers uh you've got the script they appreciate that Bobby uh good stuff out there I saw you hit a six man today uh that doesn't stink right yeah we did sweep the gar stuff we did sweep on jock Market uh just I play a little bit of a higher unit size over there on Underdog I'm limited to much lower amounts on the other sites so I take advantage where I can and unfortunately at least for me right I'm sure for other people it might have been different uh my unit size sucked on on underdog let's go through this though so today rate played under par I mentioned the Sunday scoring average from 2020 because I'll remind you guys right it played .33 over par Sunday in 2020. so this half a stroke under par average that we saw in the morning it actually played 0.63 um shots under par in the morning hours isn't completely unheard of in fact um the morning hours there for Sunday in 2020 also slightly played under par I mean all of that is because of the um damp conditions right they got a little bit of rain there I think it was Saturday night um back at the 2020 event at Olympia Fields and it of course made the golf course a lot easier it was about a stroke stroke and a half easier for that round than it was for the other four rounds and you're going to see the golf course get slightly harder right um as a lot of that moisture evaporates off so tomorrow maybe it plays a little bit closer to even par overall right maybe rather than like 0.6 Strokes under par tomorrow morning it might play like 0.4 May maybe 0.5 Strokes under a par so we're not talking about a massive difference right but where I think you're going to start to see a real separation is in the PM wave tomorrow so today it played right about even par I think tomorrow in the afternoon as the greens start to get a little firm they get a little bit bouncier than they were before I think they might start to see the scoring average get closer to like 0.25 over maybe even like half a stroke over par so when we're going through and building Showdown lineups later I do think you're going to see an edge between the morning and the afternoon and it isn't because of the weather right isn't because of the you know winds out there um so on and so forth which we're going to go through here in a second it's more so just because of the evaporation happening you're going to have Prime conditions for drying tomorrow it's going to be relatively Sunny up there in Chicago and today right it was about a 0.6 shot difference between the two waves um in fact I would say that the morning wave winds were even worse than what you had for the quote unquote PM wave out there so you can see right if it's still easier in the morning wave and I would argue that they had the harder weather weather conditions um compared to the guys in the afternoon wave I think tomorrow it's going to be a 0.7 to one shot difference between the two waves so if that's going to be the case I do think you want to Target some of the early starters I mean today if we just look at the board right a lot of the early guys got it done right furry McElroy minus five um Hartman was I guess like a midday tea time so um he kind of doesn't count for either wave Scotty was late Fowler was late for sure same thing with Windham clerk but sagala Fitzpatrick Kirk murakawa um Kim Young I'd say was another later starting time but a lot of these guys like can't lay speak um Homa Sun GM you know a lot of those sort of players um teed off early so I know it might only be like a one stroke Advantage it matters right obviously you can still mix in a few PM guys you saw today right some of the PM guys still got it done but I do think that the advantage might be a little bit larger tomorrow right so perhaps it's a little bit harder for the Scotties the uh the rickies the the Wyndham Clarks to get into the optimal lineup oh they're going to be am wave today tomorrow I should say uh but uh if they were in the PM wave again right it'd probably be a little bit harder for them to get into the optimal lineup uh than it was for today but if anyone's gonna do it I'll say this right for a round two Showdown it's gonna be a stud so uh if it's like a Scotty or Ricky that we're talking about probably don't worry about it but uh we don't have to worry about it anyways with these two uh because they're going to be am wave right because they were PM wave today let's look at the weather so let me refresh this actually make sure we're looking at the latest version of these projections and uh I'll just preface it with this the weathermen are saying that tomorrow is going to be calm right um over here on the H Triple R forecast you can see the sustained winds um are sub seven miles an hour the entire day in fact for the more morning hours they're about sub five miles an hour for the entire time period the wind gusts are about 9 to 12 which is about half or even a third of what the you know wind speeds were today um so if you thought conditions were going to be prime for taking right they're going to be even better tomorrow the reason why I think the scoring average isn't going to get too far out of hand would be How firm and fast the greens are getting right I think that it's going to start to dry up um the morning guys tomorrow I think you're going to have a ball on it right it's still going to be receptive you'll have that morning dew that makes the golf course a little bit more receptive than it otherwise would be they'll have completely pristine greens right there's not going to be any blemishes on them they're going to go out there and take this apart tomorrow it's that I think the PM wave guys might get the short end of the stick and I know for main slate right today the advantage wasn't there right the PM wave played actually harder than the morning wave I actually thought that the pain wave might be placed slightly easier um until they have that whole two hour delay right that kind of threw us off there there they weren't playing in the sideways reign in 40 mile an hour winds that was a whole other thing with today that completely screwed us but uh tomorrow right those guys that got uh the better conditions today are and in my opinion gonna play on a much harder golf course so uh I know this weather here it looks relatively favorable I would say especially so for the early starters right they're going to get the same kind of receptive greens that they had today um I would say the PM guys they're probably gonna play on like almost identical conditions tomorrow morning um which means they should be able to take this place low right you had guys like Ricky you had guys like Scotty right shoot something like foreign or par I think you're gonna see that once again tomorrow morning the issue that comes in the afternoon right what's a ceiling round gonna look like you know when Olympia Fields is starting to look like a little bit more of a test and I think it might legit be some like two three under par right like speed can't lay um who else had a pretty decent round like guys like a Corey Connors Cameron young had excellent rounds today and they still only got it to like two three under par I think in firm and fast conditions that's probably going to be your ceiling performance tomorrow afternoon especially if it starts to get a little bit crunchy out there which in DFS means that almost all of these like minus fours minus fives tomorrow might be coming from your guys going off early so when you take a look at my player pull I'm certainly going after the early starters um because it's an edge right I told you guys you know I'm gonna go through a few plays that I like but more than anything right I want to point out the edge for Friday Showdown and the edge is going to be with taking the early starters um and just to reiterate if you're just getting in here right there was a 0.6 shot advantage today in fact it was 0.67 shots uh nearly 0.7 shots in the morning wave had harder winds right so just multiply that by a little bit more tomorrow knowing that wins are going to be pretty average and I think we got yourself a pretty solid Showdown slate a top over to The Showdown sheet go through a few players that I've got my eye on and then afterwards we're hop over to props and hopefully uh find some value to be had so before we do so let's catch up on chat see what's going on where are we at do we think female can bounce back for sure it's golf it's a no-cut event he's got four rounds for sure F Underdog I agree with you thanks for the stream as always of course doc B it's a lot of fun to Doom right so I'd be missing you guys too do they let you correlate in golf yeah they kind of do they kind of don't right you can't use the same category Bobby but you can get around it if you like fade strokes and then take like an under on birdies or better it's not the optimal scenario but you can kind of get around it I agree with you though F them uh do you think that they have lift cleaned in place again uh they may they may not the tour official that came on the broadcast mentioned that it was kind of still up in the air whether they'd have lip clean in place or not I would say for Saturday Sunday I would be kind of surprised if we saw lift clean in place but there isn't any expected rain over the next 10 to 12 hours so it'll depend on how much it dries up right I would say it's like 50 50. um it's only for one round at a time Mark so they'll announce it before the round if it's going to like be there for round two um we'll have to see you wish you could get back in the Discord you don't see it anymore or you get my patreon stuff uh DM me Bobby I sent you a link to get back actually uh you were out of there for like two days there and I tried to get you back in uh yeah Mark you were banned you're not getting back in Mark you're you're Gonzo for good uh Bobby can get back in though Bobby I like not so much Mark you got to work on that Arrow sets you up and got you kicked he did actually he owes you I love you Bobby you're you're hilarious when will you need to send out your sheet to the patreon members I already did it's already on there Andrew you should be able to check it out in fact I'll double check right now but yeah it should be live I posted it uh before we went live here I'm double checking for you you're making me double check and whatnot but it should be up there I'll double check that it's available for every tier it's yeah it's up there and it's available for every tier um so yeah check out the patreon it's already up there boss you uh multiple times Mark I I already told you man you were just like being a hater like I don't know dude the Discord it's great it's there for discussion and whatnot it's not there for people to be haters so we'll we'll talk about it on DM boss man but like just your Vibe wasn't gonna work out like it just I could tell right off the bat man never mind you just received it yeah the emails sometimes they're a little bit delayed um I have to say that but the patreon if you download the app um that would be my recommendation Andrew you can set notifications on there I don't know if they have one for like Android I know they have an IOS app if you download that you set the notifications that'll help you out if you're doing props too um I know a lot of times there's bumps with props which is all pretty natural but if you set the notifications uh it gives you the best shot at them do we have any faith in Glover not for main slate I don't know if I do for round two just because like he's going off like midday right so I don't know if he's getting the best of conditions but for Saturday Sunday Showdown maybe a few struggles tomorrow right and we get a super low owned Lucas Glover I'll play him for Saturday or Sunday right he's showing us that he can get hot in fact the ownership for round two Showdown just to give you a metric to use there it's super low like people I think are already gonna give up on the guy and I've got them especially because he's overpriced I've got him at eight and a half percent which is like half his ownership for main slate yeah you could definitely play him man for sure are we saying three or four a.m golfers I would see at least three or four in fact I think I have four or five in every single lab I meant like I haven't Built My lineups yet I'm thinking my role is going to be at least four guys teeing off in the first like two and a half hours of play uh I do have a few like mid-tier guys like guys that are in like the middle like third of tee times that I'm mixing into lineups but there's not very many of them like a majority of my player pool if you're over there on the patreon is like all early guys it's uh it's an edge right so I'm taking advantage uh you were using your daughter who's using the phone you're good uh Mark Luke is the best in the business don't hate he hits way more than not uh yeah I agree with you there I gotta say it's like people can be mad and whatnot but like when it's just like people are like jab and yell for no reason it's like all right like you can do that with yourself right you're not gonna be in my Discord and just actively chirp me right like that's crazy I've already taken the W I think him or Scotty does right based on their current leaderboard right A lot's Gonna Change it's only one round so let's not overreact but it's a damn good leaderboard right we've got Scotty up there we've got guys like Ricky in the mix uh Windham Clark even just playing like an absolute World meter um cam young obviously at one of our outrights up there I don't know A lot's Gonna Change it's uh I think a good player is going to win this week this is the kind of golf course because of how deep the rough is that the best players are gonna rise to the top uh you're already starting to see that and it's only been 18 holes imagine over 72 whole sample size right you're gonna see a lot of these Gunners up there a lot of these 10 9k golfers um up there in the top three to five which you know I think it's going to create an interesting Dynamic right not to get too far off we got to get through these plays here in a second but like it these like 5K options I know they didn't play all that well today right like Chris Kirk did um Harris English right two guys that I went with this week but it might not matter how they play right if all these nine 10K guys go out there and they're like the top three to five which uh based on round one it kind of looks like it's gonna be that kind of golf course like a major championship uh then it might not matter how much they suck right you might just have to have the guy that finishes in like t-15 down there to open up the salary um for some of the stud tier options so I don't know I'm liking the golf course so far I think it's stud wins Rory could certainly be that guy good day for the fitzros Matt is tied for third and Alex is second sweet that's uh I didn't know Alex was over there playing DP World Tour I know that he had the challenge tour win I didn't know if he got full exemption for the DP World Tour but he's he's certainly more talented enough that's for sure can you explain the keys to building a solid Showdown lineup seems like not a lot of people stress it yeah so Jared I'm probably not the best person to ask I'm not a huge cash player myself I'm all gpps right in terms of building a cash lineup though in theory it's all about median projection right you just want to beat half the field if it's a double up right you want to beat like 52 percent of the field um that fluctuates from double up to double up but the you know narrative Remains the Same right you want to be just slightly better than everyone else so your thought process is to be very conservative right so that's why a lot of people play chalk when it comes to cash the ownership angle too if you want to play more ownership sometimes people would consider that a good thing over there for cash because when you know one of your six Players let's say they're chalky and they suck um well everyone's going to take that L right and especially when it's like an 80 known player for Showdown which you get for Sunday Showdown slates um it's like it almost like taking that player makes it a five on five versus everyone else which uh is actively a good thing for cash so I'm not a huge cash guy probably not the best resource but in general very conservative very just like projection based lineups is what you're looking at not really ownership based Scotty hitting those putts now you love to see I'm hoping that he can uh honestly the shots getting putting today I think he left a little bit out there man especially from what I was watching um over the last like six seven holes I played a little bit of golf today myself so uh was out there practicing with some new equipment they've got a crank driver we've got the Jailbird putter working with uh so that's going to be fun but yes Scotty he gained half a stroke putting today so I feel like he's got some room left for improvement he was number one in the field off the T gained this 1.6 Strokes with the approach play he's a bad man that's her damn shirt not many people can get sarcasm can it also get out of him I see which yeah it's dude sarcasm over text not really a thing to be frank with you he really got the wrong vibe from you you apologize multiple times yeah dude it was multiple things though Mark it's like every live stream you come in here you're just like bitching like I don't know man I just feel like you're not we're not like in line with people like I feel like we wouldn't be friends in real life frankly um blood blood robot says thoughts on can't lay coming back to win this what is he like minus one at this point you're feeling neck beard will do it uh I don't know why people call them neckbeard I think he had a neckbeard for like a week um so I don't really get that with Patrick can't lay uh he doesn't look like a Reddit nerd either like one of those like overweight uh Low T like internet people like he just doesn't strike me as that kind of guy so I don't really get the nickname but uh yeah he could definitely still win he's three shots off the lead like he's he had a hell of a round today so uh if you're talking about like in live outright I don't hate it because you know Dottie Rory are taking up so much win Equity right up there in like first and second place right now that like even Patrick Cantley only three shots behind like I haven't looked at the outright board so don't quote me on this I'm imagining that you're getting decent value right on even guys that are in contention at this point it's not the worst idea especially if you like your outright card right now sucks um it's maybe not a bad time to pile on uh I've got a few guys that are doing okay I gotta get hovland have a good day tomorrow but we're definitely In Contention all right let's go through some player pool stuff and then we'll get back to the chat so in terms of player pull for tomorrow I'm looking for early starters or at least like you know I would say from the middle of the pack um earlier in terms of tea times that have upside right they can go out there and aren't afraid to throw darts Victor hovland right he doesn't need to be conservative out there right he's pretty much into East Lake 100 in fact let's just double check over there on data golf does he even have a chance to fall out of the top 30 no he is 100 percent guaranteed into East Lake right so you know what Victor hovland cares about doing this week winning the golf tournament he could not give a rat's ass if he finishes in t50th place which is half the reason I've been him outright this week um and it's the main reason I love him for Showdown right he's hold out hobland we know he's an aggressive mofo who's always Eagle seeking and he's also going to be one of the lower owned options up top now you can see he's red here right because obviously when I black out some of this red sheet the conditional formatting changes a little bit on there but like he's lower owned than everyone else above him can't lay ROM especially Scotty and Rory they are much higher owned than a Victor hovland so if you're looking for a pivot in the 10K range believe it or not it's Victor hobland right he's cheaper than all the other options and I would argue for Showdown he brings more upside to the table than all of them he makes more birdies um especially in his ceiling rounds Victor hoblins like No Stranger making eight nine birdies in a round and nobody breaks a showdown slate more than Victor hovland like his optimal rate for showdowns I wish I had the data in front of me to give it to you he's literally got to be the top popper in all of the PGA Tour when it comes to I can't think of another player that I've seen in more optimal Showdown lineups than Victor Hoffland this year so I'm going right back to it right back to the well with them and uh that shouldn't be a surprise they've also got troll hand in the poll another relatively early tee time that should be low owned because he didn't play all that well if you're wondering who the Chalk's gonna be right it's more Kawa it's uh Jordan Spieth that played well a Max Homa uh of course a Ricky Fowler is going to be extremely popular um especially because he's got that early tee time but why not just take a chance on Tyrell Hatton right it's an 18 hole sample these guys aren't worried about being conservative and making the cut and for somebody like Han who I believe he might not actually be safe let's double check on that well he's got a 92 chance okay of making it to East Lake he doesn't have all that much to lose right like he he probably doesn't want to finish in last place right that might put him in danger of missing next week but he wants to go out their top five top ten to go out there and get in position for East Lake in Atlanta so Terrell had 9 100 another aggressive player that I'm getting to Tom Kim Sam Burns all fit the same description right they're all players that kind of Spun their wheels today they're all going to be Mega low bones because no one wants to play a guy that spun their wheels and are going off in the perfect conditions right and Sam Burns kind of like a Victor hoblins the guy just breaks Showdown slate after Showdown slate the guy is just a walking ceiling performance waiting to happen um Tom Kim maybe not so much he's not as volatile not as aggressive of a player as somebody like a Sam Burns but he's still a decent play like he was you know decently chalky last week he got some attention this week because of the form that he's in right number six in terms of recent form ranking I mean now No One's Gonna Play him right because he shot two over par like [ __ ] happens right you're gonna see guys that shot minus four in round one they go over there and shoot over par right on Friday that's just golf in a nutshell it's hard to predict and with Showdown you've got to embrace that right you've got to know that uh golf predictions golf props uh Showdown DFS whatever you're doing can sometimes be very random you have to embrace that I'm down here in the 7K range siwoo Kim Denny McCarthy are players I'm getting to um for entirely different reasons so it was Cebu it's the upside he hit the ball beautifully today and just could not buy a putt in fact I don't know the shots gain number off the top of my head but luckily we don't have to guess right we can just check on the site so in terms of shots gain putting today he lost 2 2.8 Strokes in a single round 2.8 Strokes putting he gained in all three tea to Green categories and he made his first sorry his second Birdie on hole 18. I guess it was his first long putt that he made because he literally kissed his putter as soon as he made it so clearly wasn't having the the best of luck out there on the greens and a siwoo Kim when he can throw darts early maybe get the putter to flip is a dangerous Cebu Kim Denny McCarthy 6 700 I say I like him for a completely different reason we take him for the hot putter right Denny McCarthy we want to go out there and gain maybe six seven strokes putting right see what Kim we want him to throw the darts Danny McCarthy get it done the other way so a player that's done well at my favorite comp course Memorial over there for Muirfield Village I'm also a player that for Showdown can get hot in a hurry right when he's got that magic putter working or he's going to go out there and have that Spike putting performance um he's almost certainly going to be in that optimal lineup and then the last play I want to point out right there's a lot of other pivots we're playing of course guys I can only give you so much of the player pull here um all of the guys I'm taking are over there on patreon but it's a lot of pivots right I'm going extremely aggressive around two I'm going after the weather Edge right taking the early guys um Patrick Rogers once again another early tee time but also playing the game theory angle right if you're playing in a large filled GBP you've got to consider ownership differentiation and uh trying to put yourself in a position where you can go out there and actually spike a win or spike a top five finish in one of those contests when you get the Slate right when your Edge right for us tomorrow right it's going to be this weather Edge we're going after when it pans out right if that edge is going to be tangible it's going to be a stroke stroke and a half we want to be in a situation where we can eat actually win the gpp if we take advantage of that if our lineups start with Scotty shuffler our second man in is Ricky Fowler and let's throw Wyndham Clark in there is her third man in for our gpp lineups you're gonna have a hard time winning the gvp even if that hits right I know the early tee times but they're also like the three High stoned players for Showdown tomorrow and if you're going to try and play in a 20 30 000 entry gpp well good luck trying to beat all those people when you have the same players as like a third of the field it's just it's a tough scene right it's a tough situation um to go out there and actually finish it first so I'm going after the game theory pivots especially because of my contest selection but uh again if you're in single entries or you're playing in a smaller field kind of contest maybe you do play Scotty right because he's going off early maybe you do play a chalky or Ricky Fowler because of his early tee time in those kinds of contests I have no issues with those kind of chunky players if you're wondering on ownership that is of course posted over there on the patreon as well and it's really top-heavy you've got a lot of people playing aurorians Scotty you've got a lot of people playing the guys that killed it in round one like Ricky Fowler's like Mega chalky I'm out there for tomorrow's rounds I'd say same thing with Camp Young he's also going to be really chalky because he's one of the first groups off it's all very predictable right the guys that you'd expect to be chalky are the ones that are getting all the ownership uh in terms of surprising ownership numbers I guess let me try and find a few uh the hobland only 14.8 percent right that was surprisingly low to me uh we had guys like Corey Connors I should say Corey Connors I had projected at lower ownership than I expected because of his price increase he got a little bit of a bump up in terms of price and now that he's right around like Ricky Sanjay uh cam young Wyndham Clark in terms of price I don't think as many people are going to click on Corey Connor so that I think was an interesting ownership number it was he played well today too and I believe he's gone early tee time to boot might not be the worst play especially if we get a reasonable ownership number so just double checking on his tea time here one second yeah he's he tees off in the fifth or sixth group out so definitely gonna have the conditions we're looking for it's ketchup on chat and ETFs questions and then we're gonna hop into props and see what we've got going stroking the middle of the putter instead of the heel yeah I didn't watch closely enough but that's a good sign right last week that was ugly wasn't it have I um have I checked so you're saying like trying to get guys moving into the top 50 right so if I'm understanding your question here correctly uh you're essentially looking for guys moving into the top 50. I could see it the issue I have with that is that I actually would argue the other way that it's detrimental right to be somebody that's trying to work your way in uh to go from like 49th or 50th up into the top 30. I think you have to finish like top three or five in the field so for some of these lower tier players right that are playing from behind right they're going to have a ton of pressure to get that top finish against all the world's best players right it's like a major championship type of field it's like an Augusta National type of field in terms of size I don't know you could use that as a narrative right it's a narrative it's something you could use to try and Target players I don't know if I'm as bullish on that though DP World Tour is uh always fun to watch they play interesting golf courses so agree with you um Alex one on the challenge tour so we got an invite makes perfect sense and it's fantastic that he's taking advantage of that that's that's what you do right you go out there you get on a hot streak and you end up like Garrett kego getting over to the PGA Tour that would be really cool you've single-handedly made price picks raise all their green props of course but now maybe there's unders to take so the value for overs is gone Bobby but maybe we get some unders now let's see thoughts on Sheamus power decent bounce back candidate he's cheap he's relatively low owned right he shot way over par let me double check on the tee time though yeah he's an early tee time so he's the third man off I don't hate it he's definitely a good flyer play and a large field contest I don't know if I'd feel comfortable getting to him in like a high dollar single entry or that sort of field but you could you could throw him in a gpp lineup I think he'd get away with it is there anybody that shows who's in the top 30 after today and who's on the bubble yeah so I think the PJ tour site if you go to like the leaderboard mark it shows the current standings it shows their projection at least so like they have Rory number one um Brian harman's actually projected at number two uh because he's up there tied for first place but yeah they have that on there and then over on data golf They also hear Let me just share my screen show you what I'm talking about so on the leaderboard it's this tab here right this projection Tab and then over on data golf they have this probability tab on the right this is what I was using to look at like a player's chances of getting into the weekend like hand here's a 91.9 if they have the check mark next to them I believe that means they're guaranteed in right so Victor hovland um down towards here right has that check mark so yeah right there mark foreign let's get this back up get back into these questions you know Sam Burnsville attacked the flag I'm thinking so man for sure this course reminded you a bit of Quail Hollow equals Windham clerk that's why I played clarky this week yeah that was my thinking for sure and you know he's just a big strong boy too the guy can hit the ball country mile that helps you out on that long rough you agree Jack absolutely um and Memorial like Luke says yeah it's my top comp course like they were talking about the greens looking like Memorial they've got that long rough a little bit of water in play too it's definitely looking like that and at 20 Max how much is too much of a certain play so in terms of like percentage so if I was going to take in a 20 Max like maybe 60 percent probably be my Max ownership um if you're talking about per lineup so like cumulative ownership I would do it based on product ownership now if your Optimizer doesn't have that right um maybe you set it at like 70 80 cumulative ownership but I'm not 100 sure on that cool means this guy made a whole account let's say you're a diva maybe that's your bit cool thing um true about unders good stuff absolutely uh you and your wife have a free 1K entry in a free 5K 4 Flex that's crazy how'd you get that is that like a prize-fix thing or an underdog thing that's dude I gotta I just gotta say I haven't gotten a promotion from prize picks in two years like they just I guess if they don't like you you talk [ __ ] about their site they aren't giving you those free entries so that kind of stinks that's a that's heck this that's a heck of a setup there but yeah we'll get you on the props Chris we got you um make sure you take advantage of those because that that's some pressure huh a lot of free slips out there alrighty let's hop into this board here so I think we do have a full price fix board uh I think we do have an underdog board too I'd have to guess right it's been long enough all right good we've got a board over there we've got a board on prize picks they've got stuff to work with let's go ahead and hop on in so you got four and a half birdies down to three and a half with some lower tier players noted they've got 68 Strokes down to what like 70 I'd guess okay 69 and a half for some of your like middle tier players lower tier players over here for grains they raised all of them which Bobby told us but that was definitely expected I think the average today I haven't ran it yet it was at least 13 greens uh in fact guys like Kurt kittiyama that shot plus six and round one still hit 13 of 18 greens right so uh yeah that average puts definitely off today uh we took advantage of that that was some of the Freer props that we've seen for a while and then for Fairways they've definitely got them higher than what they had for round one they looked a little easier to hit today with how damp it was of course people were putting more of an emphasis on hitting the short stuff right because it was lift clean in place so I tend to agree with that so yeah the green board the Fairway board I would say more accurately priced um here for round two than it was for round one but just noting that for now right we're line shopping right now we're going through the categories and getting an idea where everything is right so let's take a look at a underdog here now let's see what they're working with because we want to make sure we're taking the rice the best value right the best lines that we can take so Ricky's at 68 what is he over here is he 69 Strokes he is look at that so if you were going to take a Ricky under right you'd obviously want to do it over here on prize pick so uh that's interesting so maybe Underdog is going to have lower props of what we have on prize picks 60 in the half for Sanjay what is he 69.5 higher let's see Cameron Davis I know he's the same Matt Fitzpatrick's probably 69 Strokes let's see where's good old Maddie Fitz yeah 69 Strokes 68 for Xander probably 16 and a half look at this I'm getting real good at just guessing the projections now um can't lay I mean can't Lay's got to be the same they always put those two at the same projection oh they don't they've got Cantley at 68 okay so they agree on that one what's posting that is he 69 and a half he feels like that on prizefix yeah he's a 69 and a half on prize picks Corey okay Corey's probably a 69 or 69 and a half okay so yeah he's a 69 very predictable board I'm guessing every single player's projection uh what's Jordan 68 and a half got to be right of course oh my God you know what's bad when I can just like almost mind read JTA and Steven over there in prize mix it's it's getting a little sick at this point a sepa's value here in Underdog Believe It or Not Right sep is at what 69 and a half or is he even on the board he might not even be on the board figures they want to post a scrub like that over there they've got 67 and a half for Rory so obviously he's at a lower projection over here uh same thing with ROM let's see what is Scotty at right same thing 67 and a half Strokes that feels pretty accurate to me like with the easier conditions right you know it'll probably still play slightly under par overall tomorrow but for like an early starter like Scotty shuffler right he'll be playing on a golf course that's even easier than that right maybe even plays like 0.7 to one shot under par right for the morning wave all Scotty's got to do is gain Two Strokes to the field right and in this kind of field um that's not asking too much for him at least for other players it definitely would be but uh not for Scotty shuffler um let's see what else we're working with so 68 for Tommy they've got 69 for Tom Kim what do they got Tom Kim at 69 okay and then what was it's a home on Fleetwood just curious where are they at where's Fleetwood they don't have them up that's interesting hmm so we can't even comp those actually there is I'm just blind okay so there's Houma there's Fleetwood both 68 and a half yeah 0.5 Strokes higher just put it this way I don't think I'm gonna be doing Fades after today on Underdog at the very least I tend to agree with some of the projections here they could probably still squeeze out a few uh prop slips though say 69 and a half for Henley like like you wouldn't want to take this under there because it's better value like it's just it's tough Underdog is pricing these boards horrendously like four four birdies for everyone like that's if we're gonna take anything I think an underdog maybe it's the birdie props like they're much more in line with what they have on prize picks in fact can't leave may have a lower look at this he's got a lower birdie prop that might have gone on prizefix we can take that let's let's find a pair out here now so with Strokes let's try and find someone that's value I mean I do think that like an elite tier player for birdies not a bad idea like you can't lay there but let's let's find a Strokes prop you might be able to work with so it's on prize picks jeez they hit under five and a half eh maybe you're saying some value there too it seems like that's the only thing they didn't adjust there might be some value then yeah there was less than three bogeys from yeah you're right you're right Mark by the way now I'm thinking about it there is value there like he get don't get me wrong the reason why I was immediately like I don't know about that because like Sith makes a lot of bogeys but yeah the average today for Bogey's was less than three and they have everyone at three that's a good look I wasn't even looking at the bogey props yet because I was kind of just like mostly looking at like birdies and strokes like they have Keegan at three and a half okay there's there are probably some birdie props we can take from what I can understand and then I know Mark mentioned that one but I feel like there's there's probably a better option than sahith um just because he does make a lot of bogeys but I like your thinking let's look let's look at Denny he's an option um maybe not seps that makes a good amount of bogeys I'm just trying to see who our options are at three and a half so we've got Denny there Taylor Moore is an option we could throw Emiliano in there too and I'm only gonna play one of these by the way right so this is just me like queuing up who our options are so I guess Sam Burns yeah he makes a lot of bowies though so we're probably not take him anyone else postings at three and a half and then Cam Davis and Cebu oh my God yeah we have a lot of options okay one second guys I gotta bring up some stats I'm just gonna pick the one that has the highest bogey of wittens right I think it's I think it's a pretty straightforward process huh um so one second while I'll bring up that list so I can show that to you guys come on now all right so here's a boogie of witness list um let's try and find the first name that's a three and a half right so we're just gonna scroll down until we find the first one what's happening is how to win on the board I feel like he's somebody that no he's not okay you know what Adam sandovan props that's unfortunate it makes me sad when uh let's see what else we working with here's Ricky Wyndham look there's Denny right so it's probably Denny Denny's number 29 on tour in bogey avoidance let's make sure that he was hitting the ball at least decently today right I'm still playing up for Showdown so imagine he was see round one gained on approach gained with the Putter and then slightly lost off the tee only hit half his Fairways yet still got it under par so and how many boogies did he make today just one sold all right that is going to be slip number one in our slip for the stream here right so it's Patrick Hanley over four birdies which he's at four and a half on prize picks um in general right he's he's like a middle tee time right so he's not in the ideal conditions but you're talking about Patrick Cantley who's one of the best players in the world right projected uh I think but it's going to be slightly over the field average right that feels like it's not high enough uh more than anything yeah these these bogey props might be the move like especially like Denny who's number 29 on tour and bogey avoidance also only made one bogey in round one feels like a damn good prop to take and what is his tea time anything like an early P time yeah he's like an early P time too look at that they're already taking it off the board there's rat bastards [ __ ] hell oh we got a bot down there trap I love it hey just they just keep giving me more uh Impressions I love it Harley did the bogeys hit everyone was on the green it seemed yeah a lot of them went under bogeys yeah pokers were nowhere to be found today yep they were missing like the Malaysian airplane oh you guys are cracking me up down there just throwing jokes even if they're dark jokes I love them Harman under three I could see that yeah you're saying Taylor more I think he's a decent bet too let's see what's Conor's at for bogey avoidance I'll double check for you I don't think he's a great bogey avoider but he's not like dog [ __ ] yeah it looks better now so we're good the counters by the way it unplugs because like I tried to touch my keyboard kind of unplugs the mic uh it's just 15 . so hopefully it's better now yeah I got a notification on it so hopefully it's better now my bad boys you've got them watching the streams yeah they definitely do I especially prize picks they definitely do the Martians hopefully you can hear it now let me know guys if you can hear it now let me know right uh trust me I know I get like this red notification over my screen when my mic unplugs it's not great yeah it says it's working on my end oh I sounds like I'm streaming from the Titan submersible oh boy well if that's the case it might be a short live stream but I'm hoping it's better now it's good now God all right good all right so over here on prize picks there's probably some value to be had too like I you know just at first glance Ricky Fowler 69 right seems like a pretty solid prop to take let's find another under on Strokes for an early tee time right somebody that's going to go off in those pristine conditions you know effect you know a hoblin's not a horrible idea I wish he was at 69 kind of like we have with a Fowler uh let's see can we find somebody with some push Equity I guess like Burns at even par like that doesn't seem like the worst crop yeah Tony I'll probably avoid right he didn't have the best day cebu's a little volatile like I feel like we can get a better player than Cebu right at 69 and a half Strokes what do they got they got straw Hatton up here that's that's honestly not a horrible bet what is he on Underdog is he at 68 let's let's double check this shall we where's good old Terrell Hatton he's at 68 and a half right so it's it's slight value but he's got the early tee time all right let's do that all right so over here on prize picks the uh first slip that I'm gonna enter over here will be these two uh they had a prettier better prop up for Max Homa at 68 and a half birdies uh which was pretty absurd earlier but naturally they went out there and dmped it so uh that one's not gonna work out for us but uh hopefully this will see any value on the par 3 Strokes um they played tough today at least a couple did uh let's double check on that not sure so whole number six is your first par five rate played 0.06 over three um was the super long par five right so that's plus three six over par for those ones this one played 0.2 under so it's only uh 0.16 over par now for the average and then a 0.14 over so they played to like a 12.3 average yeah there's probably not a huge Edge there um unless they move around the tee boxes right then it might play harder price picks if you're watching this stream screw you for removing and Glover yeah I agree with you on that pheno for which prop man are you talking about like Strokes talking about bogeys uh what are you talking about you're liking cool to go nuclear tomorrow I do like him too I like just good Putters for Showdown so I'm mostly taking coal over for DraftKings right I'm playing them in my Showdown lineups uh it's kind of why I like Danny McCarthy too right like if he just gets the hot putter that's like a 500 par round so I agree with you for sure all threesomes going off of First Look juicy um it's all threesomes I thought it was two sums again they change it up it's all two sums off the First Tee right pretty sure it's two sums so you're talking about Strokes let's take a look at them so he's at 69 Strokes so the reason why I said I wanted to avoid him right rather than taking uh like Fowler right Terrell Hadden who I was doing before um is that he didn't play well today right like troll hadn't at least played even more golf right Ricky Fowler obviously shot minus four had an exceptional round um Tony Fino did not have his best stuff so I would probably stick to guys that had slightly better form uh you know for DraftKings for Showdown right we can take chances on players but when you're playing on a 50 50 kind of prop right you ideally want guys that are in form guys that are at least playing decently the day before um if they shoot minus four the one day right it doesn't mean they're gonna shoot minus four the next but it does mean that they have their swing in order right which means they're they're probably a little bit more likely to repeat that the next day so that'd be my take on good old female it's twosomes yeah I thought so he said two sums oh he did did I read that wrong he did all three twosomes oh I see what you're saying yeah just yeah you where did that very confusingly though you said all three twosums going off um First Look juicy I don't really understand what you mean there right all three twosums going off first look juicy so the first three twosomes is what you're saying right so you're saying like these three these three groups right gotta work on your wording on that trust me that's not me how they're misinterpreting you I think that I think you might be with the word choice there but uh Corey at under three and a half seems nice I could see that for sure uh I just they're probably better plays than Corey Connors to be honest with you because he was a number like 59 or number 62 on tour when it came to Bogey avoidance like now grios just like slightly better right in terms of bogey avoidance but let me give you like a different example so let's just go down to Corey Connors and then scroll up so you've got Rio there that you could uh take it under three and a half Post in right use a better bogey avoider um Taylor Moore is a better bogey of order see who Kim is a better bogey avoider uh who else I mean Danny McCarthy right we pointed him out before I know they don't have Chris Kirk props up but if they did you could take him I would just probably slightly prefer those guys but yeah Corey Connors you could definitely lean that way too for sure now you're good it was just it was confusing me and you were like making me feel like it was my fault I was like no dude that was crazy uh word sounds good Mark I'll check it out the first three twosomes yep you're the robot interpreter Paul you're hitting them with the bangers tonight I love it just joke after joke I love it and they're not they're not even profound but they're damn funny I'll go with that so uh yeah I agree with you though right just the early conditions in general are going to be the nuts conditions um the ones that I'm really targeting for tomorrow I would say would be like from noon uh in before right I think that when you get there to like four or five PM uh like towards the end of the day out there you're gonna see these greens start to bake out a little bit and uh this is for Eastern Time right so uh over there for a local time these would be like the 10 54 a.m T times we had the ones that I'm cutting it off with um that'll be finishing their round by like 3 P.M local um which hopefully is before the greens get super crusty and uh people start hitting the ball over the place out there which it's gonna be fun I want the course to play difficult right like it's fun to see birdies but like it's even more fun to see guys struggle that's my evil take on golf at least so we've got the couple Strokes props in here here you know I considered taking like a speech over birdies at four um I think that The Strokes props might be a little bit better just because you didn't see a lot of bogeys out there today again the average was lower than three um which is about one and a half two bogeys lower than what you saw in 2020 um the birdie rates weren't all that different right the birdie rate was like I think 0.1.2 higher than what you had there in 2020 um the difference right came to the bogeys right like people were just aren't making Moby's this time around at least not at the rate that we had last time so like Strokes is probably the best category like there are blow up so you can still make double bogeys don't get me wrong like you get offline at this golf course it still sucks there's still trees that can gobble up your ball a few water hazards but it's not it's not like it was in 2020 let's just say that much this Sam Burns prop just keeps catching my eye like every time I scroll past it it's it's just it's staring at me in the forehead it's like Luke you should be taking Sam Burns at this sort of crop what is he an underdog let's just line I don't recall what his what he was over here I want to make sure we're not getting something without value is it the same props we might even take them over here let's go ahead and throw them over there in the in the bucket what else are we working with like even the 68 and a halfs like I'm tempted to Nuke some unders like especially for like these top tier players like a hobland that has one of the earlier tee times like that just it's tempting me what is he over here on is he at the same projection no he's also right one lower I might have to do it we'll leave it in the shopping cart for now he bartended San Diego if you're ever in the neighborhood you got my whiskey all night dude that'd be sweet all right I'll let you know uh next time I get out there to the Farmers Insurance open I'll definitely hit you up I've uh it's been making it at least an idea like I might go next year for the farmers and I'll definitely let you know man but uh let's figure out what we're doing here with this slip I'm very tempted to take this under on Victor because he's got the nuts conditions and it's like it's a perfect course for Victor I'm high in this prospects to begin with but especially so when he's he's gonna have the advantage for him foreign so they got Burns at three and a half birdies oh boy it's just the average or Birdie's today was 3.2 though that's the only thing kind of holding me back there is like it's it's a lower lower average than the projection right so like I know it's value compared to prize picks I just don't know if it's the right value let's keep The Strokes prop in there but we could take a bogey prop right that was always uh in the cards who was another one of the good bogey avoiders right so it was Denny McCarthy who was the next highest on the list Cebu Kim right so if we went and took Cebu for under three and a half make this a card both of them are early tee times too all right sold we'll go with those two so reason why I want these two for value let me lock it in as of course Sam Burns right 10 10 um tea time he's one of the first like four or five groups off and see blue Kim has a slightly later tea time but he's the second best player at three and a half bogeys when it comes to Bogey avoidance um and also a player that today I believe went under his projection and that was despite having like a really shitty round so just to give you an idea right Sibu Kim ended up shooting one over par yet still only made three bogeys today right um didn't have his best stuff right it was horrible horrible with the putter today wasn't even all that good with the irons right just right around a neutral with the iron play yet still only made three in the harder PM conditions so just I think that's a solid prop to take the Sam Burns one maybe a little bit more of like a 50 50 but it's it's more of just like a a gut feeling with same burns like the guy bounces back after bad rounds like I know he didn't have his best stuff today but like it wouldn't be that mind-blowing for him to go out there and turn this around like he had a double bogey he had two bogeys on the round it's still mixed in three birdies right so he obviously wasn't playing well he lost two strokes on approach today yet still was you know he showed signs of life right he had a few good iron shots um a few good putts that dropped that hopefully he can take advantage of again tomorrow so yeah the scoring average for the morning guys uh if you're just hopping in here now there is going to be an advantage for the morning guys tomorrow um today it was about a 0.67 shot Advantage Tomorrow there's going to be even lower winds um which in the morning wave today the winds were actually higher than the afternoon wave so this .67 shot Advantage is probably going to be at least a shot tomorrow right so the morning wave guys that are teeing off in next to perfect conditions you know I think it'd play a half a stroke maybe even a stroke under par golf course which for somebody like us Sam Burns right who's at the very worst like an average player for this field probably a lot better than average right even in this kind of field right you would have to project under so that's the thought process there it's a long-winded thought process but uh that's what we're thinking let's do another slip over here on prize picks and then uh we're gonna hop on out of here end it after that see any questions three and a half yeah I saw that one too for the gala the issue is is a bogey avoidance is like really bad like and I mean that