BMW Championship Round 2 DFS Preview + Live chat: Draftkings Showdown, Underdog + Prize Picks Props

e e e e e [Music] [Music] welcome on in golf fans it's cboy GS Luke here with our round two preview for the BMW Championship going to preview all things props and DFS out there for tomorrow and make sure you're ready with all the information that you need to go out there and get your research process started so if you have any questions just let me know down there in chat but we're going to go through a weather report talk about how I expect the golf course to play tomorrow afterwards talk through some of my top DFS options so part of my process what I'm looking for in players out there tomorrow and some of the guys I guess I'll point out as a potential play for you and then at the end of things going to look at some of the round one stat averages which should be especially helpful out there on the prop side in terms of our round one performance I'd see Showdown uh well first off didn't play Showdown but main slate out there round one ended up being a slightly blow average day not the best start but uh it's only one round out of four and props were exactly break even so really no blood out there for the first day but we got all that data we have all the information at our disposal and uh definitely excited for our exposure tomorrow so first off welcome on in wherever you guys are we got Benin snapping down there Joseph Michael as well who says to hit that like button I agree there go ahead smash that like button if you guys haven't already but welcome on in we got Chris down there Nathan as well who's going after that golf Iron Man which you love to see what's going on Matt love to have you in the live stream there it's going on illy and also Mark a lot of people down there that uh don't haven't been down there in the live streams that often I'm assuming a lot of you guys are part of the replay crew and uh we're glad we're glad to have you um didn't crush it today uh you said you had a piss poor day I ended up having about an average day so like I said really no blood in either direction but uh definitely excited for the rest of the weekend ahead let's first off start with our presenting sponsor of the live stream which of course our friends over there at the shipet nation shipit nation is a great resource for all of your DFS needs not just what we have over here on the golf side so of course football's coming around in just a few weeks I'll be covering that here on the channel but for all of projections uh another source out there to get some player pull information a process related advice out there as well make sure to check them out there's a link in the description uh code loop 10 will give you a discount off any membership I'm sure you guys seen them around a lot of people down in the live chat are already members on that site but if you haven't already joined the crew haven't already seen what they have to offer which of course is golf football MMA hockey NBA when that comes around um all those different kind of sports but let's take a look at this golf course which today I didn't play Showdown I didn't really think there was going to be a huge Edge in either direction and the PM played harder and I could tell you from watching the broadcast that the greens got a lot firmer as the day goes on now we'll talk about that there's a huge as risk right on that out there for today but morning wave played about half a stroke under whereas the afternoon played a little bit over par and that wasn't for lack of good players right you still had your solid studs out there in the PM wave so it wasn't like the Xander Scotty going off early went out there and really swaye things I mean Scotty shot minus one Xander shot minus three which was far from a poor performance but it was relatively balanced across the board so in terms of your scoring today it definitely favored your earlier starters and based on my interpretation of what I saw today it was mostly because of the receptiveness of the greens they didn't really pick up speed as the day went on uh they certainly got a lot firmer and the result of that was a much worse proximity number so the way that I noticed this especially is when I went over here to the live stats and took a look at some of the approach numbers almost all of the poppers or at least a vast majority of them were out there in the morning wave which is also an indication of how the golf course was playing of course right shots gain metrics are calculated across the whole field so um when you have the am wave playing a little bit easier it's of course a lot easier to go out there and gain on approach so I think that's what we saw out there for round one and the huge asterisk like I was talking about before is they got about 6 Ines of rain at the golf course in fact one of the different weather apps I was looking at said 1.4 in which uh I think is probably a little bit of an overestimate out there on that weather app but they still got at least a half an inch of rain out there in just about an hour period which is going to leave these greens extremely soft tomorrow morning and when it comes to the weather perspective trying to find an edge out there in our lineups I think we're going to get it because you can see on here the wind gust the sustained winds do pick up as the day goes on so you can see in the morning wave it's closer to like 9 to 13 miles hour of sustained whereas the afternoon it's in that 14 to 20 mph range and then even your wind gusts go from the mid teens up there to the mid TI 20s out there in the afternoon so if you're a later starter I think you're going to have slightly firmer greens than what you had in the morning and then also that added wind in the equation which is only just going to be another factor to have to consider so I would say that what was it like A8 shot advantage that they had out there today might actually be bigger out there for round two because the greens early are going to be super spongy and as long as it's you know relatively sunny out there right I don't think it has to be you know complete sun no clouds out there for this to happen but you're going to see that evaporation and that course start to firm up the announcers said that out there in the midwest that courses tend to dry a lot faster than what we have in other parts of the country which would make sense with the rocky um bed uh what is it Bedrock that they have out there in the mountain soil so um that's what I would say about the golf course I think it's going to get harder as the day goes on and you're going to see that reflected with my exposure I'm almost only taking guys that are starting before 10:30 a.m. local which means that they're going to be playing in slightly softer greens you can see the winds don't really kick up till like 2: p.m. local which means if you're starting at 10:30 you're probably going to play at least three four holes out there when it gets pretty windy but a majority of your rounds going to be played in calmer conditions if you're a 745 starter right so one of the first guys going out you're going to see an even bigger Advantage than the guys going off later so if you're a player that's low owned out there in Showdown if you're going to be overlooked you have any sort of upside at all and you're teeing off early there's a good chance that I'm using them out there in my lineup so you guys know there's a few different ways to go out there and find an edge out there on Showdown you can do it out there with ownership we're still going to be doing that out there for tomorrow or you can do it with the weather right those are the two main ways to go out there and generate a definite Edge you can add on top of that shots gain metrics right trying to find guys with a sustainable skill set you add all of that together and you've got a recipe for Success so that's what we're going to be doing out there for our round two lineups let me bring up the spreadsheet now so that we can uh talk through some of the exposure out there for tomorrow so you're going to see all early tea times so I'm going to try not to repeat that as we go through every single player but what I'm more so going to point out are maybe ownership numbers that are low in a few cases and then a few notes about how they went out there and played today so it'll give you a good idea of the sort of players that I'm getting to once again using Game Theory using that weather Edge that we talked about and then um I'm going to add some commentary on top of that when it comes to how they're playing let's go back to chat see what's going on down there if you guys have any specific players you want my take on um now is the perfect time for that by the way and then uh in about 15 20 minutes we're we're going to get to props so I'm going to try and keep this one going try and keep it as uh quick as possible as it's getting laid out here so we'll keep it going bad day for Cruz that's unfortunate hopefully it's not tomorrow it was a not a bad day over here what's going on jiz how did Hideki miss that last putt I don't know it might have been a shot tracker air right he had like two feet for birdie I'm just glad that Tony fenal made his 10-footer for par that was huge for me out there in a few props OE made one from like 8 feet 6 in so I don't know it wasn't like it was a Terri pin location because guys are making much lengthier putts but it's Hideki right Hideki is a loose cannon he does some crazy [ __ ] out there on the golf course it might have just been a lazy stroke for all we know out there what's going on B snapping respects to you hardest grinder in the business and you said you mean that appreciate that been snapping Chris says always on the replay crew because of work but happy to catch it live it's a little late for me I've got to say I'm cooked by this time of the day I get a little bit sleepy like we get after like 9:00 p.m. but uh we're good I got start talking golf I get excited out here talking to you guys that uh it's easy to do right anyone else play graser yeah I think a lot of people did but uh um it's only one spot it's only one round so last week for example if you played graser you probably feel the same way right after your first rounds by the time you got to Sunday he was one of your top 10 fantasy scorers on the Slate so even somebody like him I don't know if I'd overreact too much because you still have 54 guaranteed holes left right there's no C cut this week you don't have to worry about a guy have to pack up the bags after 36 and a guy like graser has a lot to play for so I don't think he's the type to go out there and [ __ ] quit I mean he saw that last week he went out there and fought for you so uh yeah I think a lot of people probably played him but it's only one guy that you used unless you used him in every lineup uh I don't know if you should [ __ ] about that that much if so you're just soft like charman what's going on Deacon what's going on Luke good to see you bro and as always smash the like button absolutely let me get a sip of water here smash the like button boys I did what you said with leaving money on the table hopefully tomorrow is a better day yeah dude hopefully your lineups bounce back it's only one round so honestly if you're winning all the money right now I wouldn't be that excited about it and uh if you're losing all the money right now I wouldn't be that downed about it you've played 25% of the game it's like and by the way I use this analogy all the time and I think it makes people For Better or Worse right kind of reset their expectations it's like sweating after one quarter of an NFL showdown slate if you guys play NFL showdown we'll be doing that here in a few weeks it'll be a staple here in the channel as it was last year if you're sweating your lineups after one quarter you're an absolute doofus right because obviously there's all that scoring to come um the winning lineup is going to look infinitely different than what it is after the first quarter and oft times it's like defenses right as the optimal captain now maybe it's not as an extreme of an example but it's the same right like Keegan Radley might as well be that slap dick defense that's out there as the optimal Captain like there's little to no chance that he wins to this event now could he yes or he could absolutely as uh my boy dg75 would say and by the way looks like he gave an update we'll be back to some emergency stream so hyped to see that out here this fall but uh yeah like or he could I guess but the reality is like he's probably not going to win the event so yeah For Better or Worse right don't be that guy that is sweating your Showdown lineups after the first quarter because yeah if you're posting screenshots after the first quarter of winning all the money you look like an absolute idiot and uh the exact opposite to right like oh I'm dead after the first quarter well you're also an idiot for in both for both reasons right it's going on said glad you faded graser in Cole yeah I faded Cole myself I played graser um you're gonna get some guys right you're gonna get some guys wrong so there were a few guys that I faded that I don't feel so great about and something that I feel like genius is about unfortunately it's only been 18 holes Fitz seems like a juicy play I agree with that Bradley only 6,300 is crazy yeah you can play that donkey chalk I won't be there Nick Dunlop under 71 and half too early for prop stuff but uh remind me later on man what's going on Samuel any consideration for those finishing up some holes than tin off for round two no they they only had to play like two holes um there's not going to be a fatigue Factor there right they were going to be up anyways has no impact on me what's going on song any thoughts on batia strong start fell apart then recovered for the even par round um yeah I like him for tomorrow he's got the early tea time which I think helps um in a player that in soft conditions can really light it up so yeah I like him and I'm not sure if he's a highlighted play let me double check so yeah he's not a highlighted play on there but uh I am uh highly I think he's highly inconsideration stay out of the water tomorrow Windom yeah dude he made a bunch of birdies today and there's a bunch of guys you could have said that about like Oar for example right shot even par and he made seven birdies on the round so you might look at even par and be like ah wasn't the best fantasy day but he had one of the top 15 fantasy scores of anyone out there right and that's including placement points which are again given out way too early this stage of the week so a lot of guys like that and players that I think are good word of the day slap dicks it's a word of the day for almost every live stream so I guess you're a new guy Mark what's going on Ramy how do I feel about dietre so Thomas dietry I think is an okay play just from like the surface he's like a five out of 10 I really don't have much to say about him he does have a relatively early tea time at 9:55 had an average day ownership's going to be below average at like 7% so yeah I don't have much to say about D Tree if you want to use them as a low owned early option he's in play but not much to say from how he actually played because we didn't see any of it on the broadcast so let's talk through some of the guys I actually want to point out here so tor's the top end of the board I'm playing some Rory at 10,500 uh first off I think he's going to be lower owned than some of these other guys up here in fact I've got Rory at 30% plus ownership I've also got a Scotty over 25% and they've got slightly later tea times it's not like I think either one can't get there they certainly could with their talent level but I'd rather take a shot on a guy in playing in slightly better condition I conditions it's only a 2hour tea time difference right so let's not act like it's some massive Edge out there for tomorrow but I I'll take whatever we can get right I'll try and squeeze whatever Edge we can out there for round two and uh that's what we're getting with Rory he hit the ball pretty decently today was minus three for his first 17 holes ended up missing a par putt after the restart which would have kept him at minus three which would have tied him for the round of Xander shafley and I think because of that bogey because he goes one score down is going to make a huge difference when it comes to the ownership you can see I've got him at sub 20% right 16.9% which is in red right because all the other super high-end guys are blacked out but when you have somebody twice Zed out there with Xander shafley you know that's when you can see the leverage that is available on that sort of player so he's a high upside guys in early tea time 9:00 start so again I'm trying trying to not mention that with every player but every guy that I point out here will be an early starter it's worth noting in terms of the shots gain metrics that Rory had a little bit of an up and down day so if we go to those out there for round one he gained with the approach Play Lost with the putter um was only a slight Gainer off the T so wasn't hitting as many Fairways as what he'd hoped for but if he can go out there tomorrow keep the ball a little bit more in play um I mean if he improved on the putting even better right if he got out there into the positive as well he had this kind of performance it was an eagle and two birdies and then two Bogies to offset some of the scoring despite being I don't know like a C+ out there in terms of his Baseline I mean normally he's a Gainer out there in these B POA greens normally he's one of the best drivers out there in the world and with the thin air the added distance you think a good day for Rory is going to be an even better day when it comes to the shots gain metric so he's the sort of guy that I think has plenty of chance to turn it around and already had an okay day right minus two was two shots better than the scoring average and he had so much um room for improvement out there today so I'll take them with the earlier tea time and uh if there's a soft Golf Course right we always talk about Rory going out there nuking a golf course when it's soft well that's exactly what he's going to get it's going to be soft tomorrow morning it should be relatively calm he's starting at 9:00 a.m. local time and uh should be a good spot for him to go out there and go low also like con more Kawa at about 17 and a half% ownership which again might look like high ownership especially compared to the other guys that we're going to talk about but there are players like Victor havind I've got it higher ownership out there than morawa and even guys like Klay who didn't have the most impressive round are up in that same sort of range so you know if he was minus four minus5 he'd probably be 25% out there for tomorrow and moraba just like Rory is known for going low when we have aoft course he's a very good iron player right one of the best second shot players in all the PGA Tour and when we have dart boards for greens like what we're going to get this time those are the sort of players that I'm trying to play when we have those condition so he's 17.5% I think pretty reasonable ownership uh he's not low owned by any means in fact he he's a little bit over the average ownership in this range but at the same time he projects through the roof right 44 and a half points actually projects for a higher Point potential than Rory maroy which is uh pretty crazy when you think about it right he's in the 9k range as opposed to the 10K range with Rory a whole $600 worth of savings so though he'll be slightly higher owned I think it's worth it in uh at least from that perspective moving down a little bit further I've got Windam Clark as a player that I'm pointing out 9M start he's in the same group as Rory so if you're following a group tomorrow I'd highly recommend following that pairing as you're going to see a lot of birdies if they're out there with their iron play and and remotely sharp in that category and what you had for Windam was an even par round but much better when it came to his actual play he was hitting really good iron shots um he had a few huge mistakes uh what was it three water balls out there on the back nine or else he probably would have shot minus four or minus five and because of that and honestly if you take a look at the shots metrics they're not going to give you a true Taste of how he played today because if you take a look at the shots gain metrics he lost three Strokes on approach that's not really a taste of how he played out there that's almost completely a byproduct of those water balls on the back nine that led to a double on 10 a double on 15 he bogey 14 which was a par five by the way one that he was going for in two yet he still managed to make what was this one two three four five six birdies on the day so you're telling me the guy had all these bad breaks he you know went out there didn't birdie that one par five that he easily could have reached into two and he still made six birdies like yeah give me the nuts conditions give me a player that was talked up all week as the guy to play an altitude and now because he didn't shoot like minus two or better he's going to be like 14% owned as opposed to like the 20% that he was in larg field gbps so if you're giving me that he's an inform Windam Clark as well uh he lit it up on the greens and the one thing I'll say about Windam is I normally wait to play him in Showdown until I see a glimpse of him putting well because when he gets the read on greens and I say this all the time for props with Windom when Windam figures out a golf course and kind of how the grass is working maybe it's the speed of the greens um it's something but when whatever his putter starts to click you see it continue throughout the rest of the event and today he gained three Strokes out there on the greens would not would not surprise me if he ran the table on the greens the rest of the week went out there was gaining you know stroke and a half two strokes out there per round and if he does that and then cleans up that iron play which again he lost three Strokes approached today I mean watch out could be some really really low scores coming out there for wind up Clark I'm also playing Russell Henley at $8500 so he's eight uh starting at 8:40 a.m. so another one of those guys going off relatively early and another guy that fits that Colin moraba mold he can keep the ball in play if it's going to be soft out there I think that'll be important for controlling your spin into greens and then another guy that'll throw darts and lately has been really striping his irons and heading into the week was a pretty popular pick right he was like 16 to 20% owned out there in gbps I've got him at about 15% which once again isn't low ownership by any means um I wouldn't say that any of these guys are leverage plays like maybe Windam Clark is a little bit below the average ownership there but uh we're going to really start to see that differentiation uh that game theory Edge come in as when we get to our seven and 6K options so um Russell Henley is more of just a guy that I think will play well out there tomorrow and that has been playing well hitting into this event moving down to our leverage plays and uh I guess Brian Haron like 99.4% I don't know if I'd call him super low owned but for the most part down here these are all going to be guys that are sub 10% these are going to be guys that are getting you leverage in lineups and you probably want at least three or four of these sort of players in every single lineup now up top there are a few options that you can use at low ownership U most specifically out there in the 8K range where you've got guys like JT that'll essentially be unowned cam young also at 10% uh the options are pretty limited and maybe Aaron Ry about 10% or lower you use one of those options which by the way they're all relatively early tea times and I can't spill the beans but I'm playing at least two out of those three players you can use one of those to get different but these guys at 6 and a half% like a Davis uh pretty much every player we're going to talk about down here are the sort of guys that you need at least three or four of in every single lineup the reason why I say that is in the large field GBP it's all about getting different to the field when we just have an 18 ho sample size right golf's a crazy enough sport as it is when we're you know trying to handicap it for a 4-day event but even harder to do when it's over an 18ho sample size um that variance that chaos that we see for tour events um gets Amplified when we go ahead and limit that sample so that's what you have to know when you're going out there and building lineups which is why you need at least probably three maybe even four of these players out there in lineups so up top you're going to take your stands you're going to spend your salary on probably a few guys that are a little bit chalkier but the rest of your lineup is where you should be trying to take stands against the field so let's catch up on chat see what's going on and then uh we'll talk through some of these value plays which uh there's some ones I really like here he said I'm the Undisputed go um golf goat you're up six units since joining the prop patreon so I'm glad to hear that I know a few weeks ago right you were on the fence about wanting to join and uh I guess Hamza is probably one of the best testimonials that I can give out there for that um our props lately really haven't even been that great like I would say they're you know about average lately and uh you think it's hype out there with the six units up so I would say Hamza if you're excited about that just hold on a little bit because uh it's normally even better than that so if you're thrilled about that obviously we're hyped too and let's get after it was I shocked about how many water balls there were um I think on that one whole 15 yeah in particular the guys that were spinning it back was it whole 10 to yeah whole 10 had the the pin location back there in the back right I was because if you don't have those two pin locations there's hardly any if any water balls at those two holes in fact any left side pin location right you're not going to see a water ball the entire day so I am very interested to see what they do for the course setup right whether they you know tuck it in those Corners once again but if they don't I think that you're going to see a huge difference when it comes to the scoring on those holes thanks Luke you the man won a bunch on best ball satellites there you go Bob and uh I got to say the underdog stuff and you were saying just like I guess sorry I guess it's not Underdog right you were saying just the best ball satellites on DraftKings those are good markets a lot of soft players out there a lot of uh you're like big mme players that are entering like thousand lineups out there for Showdown is what you see in a lot of those satellites and a lot of times you can take advantage of those players because they don't put as much time in per lineup they're uh just entering like the same lineup across every contest which sometimes you can take advantage of do we like Klay tomorrow and do we like him single entry so the tea time isn't atrocious now I don't think you have to cross them off because of the tea time but to me he's teeing off just a little bit too late for my liking so that's the one real gripe I have with him but I can't complain about him I think he's a great play for this golf course I think a soft course sets up well for Klay but he's going to have a slightly less soft course or I guess a firmer course the easier way to put that out there in the afternoon but it's not horrible just joined what what are my thoughts on the course after round one so it's not as easy as people were saying is I guess the thought on Monday Antonio I thought minus 10 would win this thing so I thought I'd play even harder right than what we saw for today and then I heard caddies saying the opposite you had the sports book lines out there um particularly like the winning score props right giving us a completely different idea so I second guessed myself in fact I played some props right assuming it play easier but am I shocked by it no because on Monday right I called for to play harder so if anything I don't even want to say I'm shocked by it because I'm not I'm uh I'm just laughing I guess at the media and these sports book people that think they know all the [ __ ] about golf courses right like it's uh I don't know Monday I had a completely different take on it and then all of those people come out and they're the Smart Ones apparently right we'll put that out there in quotes because they work for these companies that're out there on the the big media deals and whatnot and they got it completely wrong this week and madebe me like a fool for a little bit so maybe I got to trust myself a little bit more when it comes to my course reads because until I heard that information I was thinking the exact opposite what's going on Gavin says what are my thoughts on Maddie Fitz so the tea 's okay right so where is he he's super cheap he's like 70 sorry $6,700 he's got a 745 tea time I don't want to give away too much about Matty Fitz but you know he fits a lot of the things you'd be looking for particularly if you're trying to find like a low owned guy down low that has a decent course fit the reason I'll say that he's a good course fit is he's won twice on the DP World Tour when they play at elevation in the Swiss Alps so if you're looking for a guy that has had to adjust that adjust to that before and has played at a high level doing so um he fits that description right two wins even though it's the DP World Tour that's super impressive and he's going to be essentially unowned he's going to be sub 10% because of how he played so you probably know what I'm doing do but I won't give you the official take you'll have to check out the patreon for that all the props are up on FanDuel that's great to know there we go have a actual sports book to compare the odds to now do I like H for tomorrow he can't be worse than he's been so I have a take on that Frank he played horribly today which I was happy about I bet against him today but I do think there's a chance he turns it around and maybe it's narrative based maybe it's not some of you may have seen but he's back to Twitter and uh Matt Ganon by the love his encourse stuff so this is nothing against my boy Matt but and he he loves Malon clothes just like I do but he got roasted by Max H out there on Twitter he uh was said that he was waiting 15 minutes out there for the rules official and that's why he was taken forever um responding to something that Matt said which was all in good faith I'm assuming right obviously Matt was probably just [ __ ] with Max Homa and uh he came back he hadn't tweeted for how long he wasn't clapping back at anybody and then after his round today went out there and did so so maybe he's got that chip on his shoulder again again that's completely narrative based I just wanted to throw it out there because I found it extremely entertaining that he was getting back to the Twitter stuff and I love it he's uh obviously when he's interacting with the community he's just making golf better right he's growing the game in the most organically way possible and I love to see that so in terms of how he's going to play tomorrow I don't know right is that going to translate to him succeeding I do have to say the tea time's okay right 945 he's also going to be low owned because shot plus two so narrative aside I don't think he's the worst option pin locations are up there we go um I'll Circle back to that when we get to props you the first person to say your name right in years there you go Hamza and uh it was an educated guest I I butcher names all the not all the time uh English is not my strong suit I'm uh an engineer my trade I'm a a stats guy a language speaking is not my strong suit which uh you would think right YouTuber right would know how to speak but uh most of you are here for the analysis not because this is a polished publication let's put it that way Michael says how do you feel about norin um I meant like a five out of 10 on norin what I'll say and the reason for that I think he's in play he's got the early tea time that you're hoping for he played well today right minus four reason I out a five out of 10 on him is the ownership so you get over here to the projected ownership Tab and uh he is one of the highest owned guys down here in the seven cave range so unlike a graser who we're going to talk up here in a few minutes minutes he's going to get you a real differ you're not going to get that out there with Alex noren so I don't think he's a poor play he is going off early he's got the weather Edge going for him which is always huge out there in Showdown but the ownership is getting out of hand you're still liking your minus 15 winning score yeah I I think that's on point and yeah minus 10's not going to be it by the way I think minus 15 where you're at revcloud is is a pretty good guess is there a cut there is not and you said JK JK there you go so you knew about that Harmon's prop is 71 and a half at plus 100 are you crazy or is that disrespectful um I don't know if it's disrespectful because you know scoring average was even par today so if you're assuming an even par scoring average it probably isn't if it's a minus one scoring average like I think it's going to be then yeah probably would be so uh probably not but who knows you stoked for NFL season thoughts on your Packers okay so this what I'll say about teams Mark I am horrible at you know projecting teams for the year but the one thing I will say about the Packers is I think they're a team on the rise with how young they are particularly on the offensive side defense I don't really know if it's any better or worse than last year I'm not as plugged in with the Packers as they am other teams but their offense particularly from the fantasy angle is I think a very intriguing Bunch uh best ball I been getting quite a bit of exposure to them and uh some Stacks out there but Jordan love a few of his targets and uh I think Romeo dos might be the most slept on fantasy player this year at least in terms of like ADP out there in beste ball because I think he's really especially PPR leagues like uh DraftKings bestall it's a full PPR he he's gonna have a huge year so that's what I'll say about him I think they're gonna have a better year than last year and a lot of that because of just how young they were what's going on Rick what's more likely for round two Connor keeps rolling or Burns rebounds so I would say Burns rebounding he's a both quality players right Cory Connor you know Sam Burns both guys that are gaining Stripes consistant to the field reason why I would say sam Burns is good old regression right when you go out there you have a good round it's not like it's harder to go out there and back it up but sometimes statistical regression can be a [ __ ] can come back and uh bite you in the ass a little bit um the exact opposite is true right when somebody like St Burns goes out there and plays below his Baseline it's not that he's necessarily due to go out there and play but you can make an argument that maybe he's slightly more likely to regress back to his mean um than he is to play you know above or below it so I would say that yeah Sam Burns rebounding probably is a little bit more likely but you're talking about the slimmest of margins right I mean those sort of effects when you're talking about statistical regression um are usually negligible right there's a reason why a lot of people um especially people that are using like data analyst stuff um don't go out there and use that sort of stuff because it's just not a big Edge Tonio says you might not tell you but are but am I playing Thal after losing three Strokes putting if he had an earlier tea time I would be but I I'll tell you Antonio he is just outside the tea times that I'm targeting so out of principle he was one of the last few players out of my player Pole now I will say if the last few guys out of my poll have had a track record you'd notice that the guys that I just cut out of my exposure usually go out there and smash so just for the sake of both of us Antonio you might get to get might you might want to get some exposure out there to saah because uh you're right he he lost three Strokes putting the rest of the game was actually pretty decent it was incredibly frustrating to watch out there for his first nine holes as he had birdie looks and he was three putting for Bogi so it was uh not likely to happen again he's a much better putter than that so that's why I was looking at him but the tea time is what held me back a little bit all right let's talk about some of the sevenk guys that I'm getting to so I believe we left off with Davis Thompson here who's 6 and a half% owned he's going off early he was chock this week I think pretty decent chalk too because of all his decent shots gain metrics heading in and now because he shot plus four because he had a horrible day right no one's going to use him for tomorrow you know what happens a lot of times these guys bounce back right I mentioned that out there with Sam Burns that some of these guys are kind of due for some uh stat regression oh little tongue twister there I'm not even going to try to stay statistical right now out there this late at day day but uh yeah Davis Thompson at $7,700 has bounced back ridden all over him it's not so much the shots gain metrics that really stand out out here for Davey U more so just the kind of player he is long term so six and a half percent ownership the kind of guy I'll get over the field on and uh yeah I guess that's all there is to say um didn't really play all that well today as you could tell by shooting plus four but definitely has a bounceback in them Max grman you could say a lot of the same things about for proof of that bounceback ability just take a look at what he did last last week went out there shot well over par in round one and ended up under par by the end of the weekend he was consistently making a ton of birdies right didn't always go out there and shoot super far into par but showed all the resolve in the world out there Sunday going out there and even making it to this week so you know if you think that he's going to give up after one round then you don't know him or at least you didn't watch golf out there last week because he showed you the kind of person that he is so it's not like it's a guarantee he goes out there and improves on it but you know he's at least going to give it his best which for me is almost enough for me to just play him in Showdown um there are guys in this range that are going to be out of it after tomorrow that 100% are going to pack it up I don't think rayman's that sort of player because you know every Point that he's crawling you know and trying to crawl and scratch and get is going to have a huge impact on some of his seating for next year um he's in all the Signature Events so he has that going for him but he wants to make sure he gets into some of those major championships next year and you know it might not be a massive difference finishing in like you know 42nd versus finishing in 48th but it does make some sort of difference out there and uh these are the sort of guys that care about that kind of stuff next up we got Brian Haron at $6,700 uh he's another one of those players it's accurate off the te kind of fits that more Caba Henley build that we're talking about before that's going to hit a bunch of Fairways and loves throwing darts on a soft golf course so with the early tea time relatively low ownership because he shot even par he's the sort of player that'll take a shot on for some leverage down low moving a little bit further down the we've got Tom hogi who believe it or not at 10:25 is one of the latest tea times that I'm even considering and the reason why I still played him at 1025 is because he's maybe the best iron player in this field that isn't named Scotty shuffler um if you're talking about throwing darts particularly on a soft golf course you want Tom hogi he's capable of throwing those shots to four five feet all day um this year he's actually been a much better putter than what we've seen in the past as well so if he can go out there gain on the greens like he's shown us here in 24 throw some of those panded darts out there on those receptive green complexes um could be a smash play out there and Showdown and even par he fought back for being like plus two at one point so I like his momentum heading into the round as well and then lastly the last guy I'll point out here would be step Jagger the whole way down the board at 6,000 he's got a 7:45 a.m. local time uh tea time so going off super early which is helpful and he's sub 5% owned which you know might not be the case in every contest that you're entering but in the largest toi gbps there are just guys here like posting um heck even like a Chris Kirk Cam Davis cly Keegan Bradley that are going to take away a lot of ownership here and unlike the main slate because pricing is even softer than what we had for the main slate um you don't have to go down to like $6,000 to take Scotty you don't have to go down to $6,000 to take a double spend up and the result of that is lower ownership in this range so a Steven Jagger could be like an ultimate pivot and could also get some extra salary to take that double spend up and because pricing is so soft probably still take like another 8K guy with that double spend up lineup so it's uh not always what it's buying you down low sometimes it's the salary flexibility that you're getting up top which is what makes these kind of guys in the optimal lineup right like for example Stephen jger especially like if a bunch of like nine 10K guys go off tomorrow he doesn't even have to score the most points on the Slate or it doesn't even have to be like the best points per dollar play I'm down here in the 6K range if that salary is needed to have the optimal lineup right you might just have to go down and spend six grand right like jger might only shoot like minus three tomorrow which you know could be far from the optimal lineup but he can end up being in the gpp winning lineup just because it lets you spend up for a few other guys up top so that's why I like them if you're going to take a shot on that sort of player down low do it on somebody that's a good iron player right can throw darts kind of like Tom hogi um jger a very streaky iron player and is the dead stone dead minimum when it comes to that price tag so those are a few examples of players that I'm taking out there in my exposure not so much to give you guys that you have to play yourself but more so to show you what I'm looking for in players we mentioned the weather Edge as you can tell I'm bleeding into that rather heavily as every player I'm taking is starting at the latest at like 10:30 local time and on top of that a lot of low owned players we had some medium owned guys up top like a a Rory morawa um guys here like a henley wind Clark aren't going to be low owned by any means but they're also not the mega chock up top I'm not playing the the 30% owned Xander shle I'm not playing the actually I am playing that was gonna be fake news out there but it's not I'm I am playing Hideki at like 25% the reason why I will play him that kind of ownership though is because he's in the proper way right he's going off at 9:00 am as opposed to 11 with guys like Scotty and Xander so just just have your process out there for tomorrow and uh yeah I had to spill the beans on Hideki there because I didn't want to give you guys the wrong information but uh yeah on top of Rory up top I am using hit Dei in lineups as well um he's not going to get me as much differentiation but he is coming in with Incredible form um Iron play looked sharp today um still making a [ __ ] ton of putts which I don't know if we can continue you at least count on the the putting going out there and continuing going forward but the iron play I feel pretty comfortable with so I'll take him as an early tea time and uh yeah if you guys have any specific questions about players you can still let me know down in chat but uh let's do some lineup Construction talk now so we're going to talk about props here in a few minutes but let's bring up DraftKings uh wrong tab there let's bring up DraftKings not my projections and build a lineup or two together so what we're going to do here is kind of just talk through what I'm thinking through in building lineups um because as I said with Stephen joerger you know there A lot of times the lineup construction is just as important as what we're going with actual players um heck even like total ownership numbers um sometimes you can have a higher higher total ownership higher product ownership out there in a lineup but it have more leverage than another just based on lineup construction so for example right I think studs and Duds is going to be very popular out here in Showdown if you went more balanced out there in your lineups I think you might actually get a little bit different to the field so let me get a sip of water my mouth is getting super dry here and uh let's get this prop stuff going here in a few minutes hit the like button fellas Luke is bringing the PGA goods and we've got over a 100 of you here in the live chat so if you haven't already hit that like button first what are you guys waiting for and uh let's pump up those numbers I can't see the live counter frankly I'm not the sort of person that really gives a [ __ ] about how many likes dislikes shares I get on my social media content more so just wanted to get out there want to be able to Market my stuff so of course my patreon page as you guys know out there um but yeah if you hit the like button it does mean more people can see it and if you find this helpful more people can see it if you hit that like button so yeah YouTube tells me to tell you guys to hit the like button and you heard revcloud right don't let him down down there what would I project the am versus the PM wave score um maybe like a half a stroke difference uh I can't give you exact numbers because we don't know right it's a projection at the very best but maybe like a half a stroke easier out there in the morning Antonia says I don't know if I talked about it but what were my thoughts on JT's performance so he played horribly today round two it really doesn't change my projection form in fact my round two projection system I'll just tell you guys it completely ignores round one I do not use shots gain metrics my round two projections at all it is all based on their Baseline performance as the first 18 holes have zero to little impact on how they're going to play at round two um you can add on the shots gain metric stuff you can try and look for ball Strikers um I I don't think that's the worst thing to go out there and do but in terms of like raw projection it it really has little to no impact for me now by the time we get to round three that starts to change right when we have two full rounds of same Le I start to incorporate it just a little bit round four same thing it is a little bit a part of my projection but yeah round two not at all I think if you do you overreact too much because they only played 18 holes and just like being happy about winning a bunch of money after round one that's silly right quick question not asking to give you a lineup but can you point me to the roster construction for single entry I can't because I don't have a crystal ball B snapping you're asking me to tell you the exact roster construction that's going to play while on single entry no one knows man I I don't know what you're asking me for like you think I just like know the best roster construction uh I mean I can I can tell you what I think I'm gonna do I haven't Built My single entury lineup quite yet but uh I definitely don't have a crystal ball that's what you're asking me for it's going on J Miz fenal 71 and a half and then Rory and Windam at 70 and a half yeah we'll we'll talk about props here in a little bit but we'll Circle back on that dude what's going on Deacon if you have the time he would be a top spend up in single entry so I don't love those kind of questions I'll give you a few options so I'm going to give you like four you can pick your favorite I guess um Rory morawa Clerk and Henley right all those guys that we talked about in the live stream at $8,000 plus I'd probably pick one of those four Deon uh Antonio says pretty impressive fight back from Tommy lad thoughts for the round two um first off I agree on that he actually made our under 70 and a half b a little bit of sweat out there towards the end I think that he's got a slightly later tea time than I would I'd hoped for so like 10:15 it's not a horrible tea time it is before 10:25 so he is technically still within my barometer out there in tea times but when you have like a Windam Clark at 9:00 a.m. next to him heck even like a Tony fenale that's going off an hour earlier I kind of like those guys more but he's not out of play that's for sure if you like the momentum if you like that fight back then you can certainly back that in a lineup so let's do some lineup construction stuff hopefully it gives you an idea bin snapping of like I guess what you're looking for but um yeah dude I don't I don't have a crystal ball to tell you the best line of construction but if I was entering in a large field gpp I'm going to have plenty of studs and Duds lineups but if you do go a little bit more balanced I do think you're going to get some leverage just on how you're putting together your lineup so just to show you I think what a lot of other people are going to do I think you're going to see people start with Hideki especially if they're going like am lineups out there with a lot of uh their starts your second man in I think guys like Windom are going to get clicked quite a bit um a fale at $9,400 would make sense of this kind of lineup too these kind of lineups where you go like 10K 9k uh maybe it's even another 9k you mix in here like a Windom Clark or maybe even you go double spend up you go like Rory and hideky as your first two in I think these kind of lineups where for your last three spots you kind of skip this like top end of the 7K range I think these are going to be extremely popular so just to show you what that would kind of look like here let's throw those two in let's throw in a I guess Cory Connor relatively early tea time out there let me double check on that actually what is Cory Connor's yeah so Cory Conor is going off at 7:55 local time so you can throw these three into a lineup I think this is going to be a very popular start and the issue with this is that your line of construction is going to put you on all the same sort of players down low here so unless you're very careful about you would take like for your last three spots you're going to run into some problems so you know even if you use a graser even if you ruin let's say like uh I think McIntyre's going off a little bit too late so maybe it would be a norn at $7,200 at $6,600 unless you're leaving salary on the table unless you're taking like a sub five% own player this lineup might not have enough leverage out there in the larvi GBP because not only do you have three pretty chalky players in your mid to top tier range but your lineup construction is going to be similar to a lot of the rest of the field but I think it's going to be a little bit lower owned and what I prefer personally out there in some of my builds is to be a little bit more balanced about it so if I'm skipping Rory up top if I'm skipping Hidan lineups which I'll be doing quite a bit out there in my builds maybe I start with a morabo maybe my second man in is Windam Clark you can still take an AK player in this kind of lineup so let's go ahead and throw in a cam young out there in this kind of build let's also throw in Davis Thompson here let's throw in a JT at $8,000 who also has a relative L early tea time and then our last man in here you can see we're only going down to Seven Grand so I believe our cheapest player in the other lineup uh actually may have been $7,000 graser but this kind of lineup because it's more balanced because you're not having to avoid that 8K range and uh even this top end of the 7K range I think is going to give you more chances for leverage just like we had for main slate where the top end of the board also the super cheap plays where your highest owned players on the Slate it's a little bit less like that it's a little bit more balanced out here for round two showdown at least in my projections out there for tomorrow but it's still much lower ownership in that 7K range and 8K range than you should probably have in particularly towards the top end of that 7K range so I would say that this kind of lineup first off more leverage towards the top or you're not taking like a 25% hi decki um you've got guys that are a little bit lower owned here like a moraba clarka especially cam young right at sub 10% ownership and uh because you're getting that same leverage down low this is the kind of lineup that I don't have worries about I mean even spending all of your salary this lineup is going to have a lower chance at duplication it's also going to have more leverage out there in the field so when your guys actually hit or if they hit right out there for your round two lineups you're actually going to move up those leaderboards out there with each performance whereas if you're taking them at like 30 35% ownership then it's going to be a lot tougher to go out there and get that done so if I was in a single entry as opposed to like a gpp sort of build in single entry I might be more willing to take on like the hidis might be a little bit more willing to take on guys like a Tony fenal as your other three four spots are going to give you enough leverage so right as I mentioned before that first lineup might be a little bit sketchy for GBP if you went with that kind of build out there in um like I said more of like a single entry kind of format you could probably get away with it here so um let's throw in Lowry there let's throw in a norn into this lineup and even if you're last man in here I mean I guess it could be graser but really you know benan whoever the heck you want to put right down there in that lineup in a single entry you can get away with a lot more ownership so that's what I would say about the single entry it's not so much that it changes where I'm spending my salary um I I still think a balanced lineup is probably the way to go um just because it'll be a little bit more different but this ownership component right going out there and playing like a bunch of guys that are like 20% you can get away with that in a single entry particularly like smaller single entries that are only like 100 to 200 entries whereas in gpps you have to be a lot more cognizant about that aspect so that's all I've got for the lineup construction segment or at least all I wanted to talk about there I'll see if there's any questions when it came to that but uh if not we're going to talk through some prop stuff so let me uh Circle back to chat see what we got and if not we're going to talk through props appreciate it and understand trying to tighten the process of course and uh yeah I'm trying to like like I think it's in like regards to that question it's just not my favorite question to like ask for one specific play as uh I don't really do that for anyone right like even in my like Discord like when someone would ask me about that I I would have a hard time answering that so hopefully you understand me not doing so do I think that they water the greens more throughout the tournament so certainly not tomorrow they don't need to they got a over a half an inch rain so they uh don't need to water them overnight but maybe Saturday Sunday but from what I heard they want this place to play firm and fast um anytime Jack Nicholas is running a golf tournament now he's not the head of this course but he is I believe the honorary or at least an honorary member this week out there of Castle Pines if he's on property as he is I mean he's going to tell them to make it hard he's going to tell them to try and make it as firm as possible tomorrow they can't control that it rained a [ __ ] ton out there this afternoon it's going to be baby [ __ ] soft out there for Saturday Sunday though if they don't get more rain it might be pretty firm out there so I would say they probably aren't going to water very much did I catch the comment from the announcers about drying out the greens how much does it happen happens all the time so happens at most T events um they try and make it progressively harder as the week goes on there's only so much they can do though um if they're going to dry out greens normally they just don't water them right it's not like they put fans on them it's not like they're putting like sand out there on them um this week right they're probably just not going to water them so tomorrow I think it's going to play a little bit easier because of the rain this afternoon but Saturday Sunday it should firm up quite a bit were was I surprised about how many players weren't making birdie at one um the birdie average was like 45% which uh I did see some of the stats from 2006 uh that's the last time they played the international and it had the same exact birdie rate and back then it was 65 yards shorter so they added the 65 yards to account for the modern game and the birdie average was almost the exact same so no I think that makes a lot of sense especially for like a 700 yard par five I mean it's it's not going to be a gimme right it's it's a driver 3 wood even at that elevation so not so much any matchups that I like I have not taken a look at the matchup board yet so no idea uh Zach if you want to remind me after we do props I can take a look for you but that'll have to be at the end of the live stream we've got some stuff to to cover before then let's talk about the prop stuff now though so let's go through the averages from today which by the way if you haven't seen them yet here are all of them out there from today's action so slightly underpar scoring average uh if we sort it by morning versus afternoon you could see morning was about a half or stroke under afternoon was about 38 Strokes overpar uh worth noting that there weren't two defined waves but you can see right first versus second half of tea times uh there was a rather large difference out there when it came to the scoring you Circle back to this birdie average was 3.7 per round um which was actually lower than what I was expecting but average 3.1 per round which again was higher right than I was calling for yesterday um but Fairway average and green average were pretty much right where I was expecting uh Fairway average maybe slightly higher than what I was calling for but green of Regulation average at about 12.4 made a lot of sense with the relatively soft greens now because of the rain that they got this afternoon right even with some higher winds tomorrow I still think you're going to see better scoring I'd imagine that the birdie average goes up uh not sure if it's going to get the whole way up to four per round um might even be four plus for all we know especially if like pin locations are easier but with the softer conditions the birdie average is definitely going to go up a little bit bogy average you would think would go down a little bit out there with softer greens uh Fairways greens also both going to go up just a little bit um the important thing now is I want to take a look at those pin locations so I know somebody mentioned before that they were posted on the PJ tourcom Twitter so let me bring that up and we're not going to do like a full Deep dive like we sometimes do where we go like Hole by hole I'll show you guys the different slopes and whatnot it's just a again a little bit too late it's almost 11:00 p.m. local time over here on the East Coast what I want to do look what I do want to look at is whether they're tucking things near water which I can answer the question already they are especially based on hole number two so like hole two which off memory let's see is it a par four yeah par 4 it's a shorter par 4 is tucked there in that back right corner so that's going to bring water into play you're going to have to carry it the whole way to that back pin location and you're going to have a lot of spin on because it's a wedge shot so you can have some water balls just like you had on hole number 15 today hole number three is let's see it's a par four I don't know this golf course enough right it's we've only seen it for one round uh other courses right where I have that mental map already done we can go through this a lot quicker but it's a longer par for it's 470 yards and it's there tucked in that front left corner which is I think even tougher than what you have over here at Hole 2 Hole 2 you might spin it off into that AWA that water hazard over there to the right whole three have a much higher chance of Just Landing it into that water it's a like 160 190 yard shot depending on how aggressive you are off the T and it's a long iron so trying to get that you know distance correct right trying to get close to this pin location is I think going to be impossible because I mean if you're trying to figure out what club to hit there uh and you know that 10 yard short is going to be a drop I mean everyone's going to hit the ball long so I would imagine on that hole that you're going to see next to no birdies out there right even with the soft greens just as you have to air on the side of caution whole three let's see what else some of these look pretty easy so like I know we're pointing out the harder ones but whole one looks easy whole seven looks easy um especially if it's going to be soft greens front pin locations are especially on shorter holes are going to be eaten alive Seven's going to play short even as a par three eight is a par five I think that's a very accessible pin location out there in the par five hole number nine they're in the middle left these look awfully like round number one actually in in a few cases at the very least whole 10's a longer par 4 it is there in the back middle so that one was tucked there in the front right out there round one so I think 10 one where it's actually going to be a little bit easier 11 I also think's a you know pretty far away from the water so that one is a a pretty I don't want to call it easy pin location but maybe a little bit lenient 14 isn't that close to the water 15 is a lot easier than what you had for today uh 15 was where way in the far back right out there for round one 16's not that bad 17 ain't bad at all and then uh 18 I would say is a very average pin location too so I think it's a tough start I think hole two you just get out of there with a par you're pretty happy you move on hole three same thing definitely hole three you're just looking to make par and move on but holes one four five 6 7 8 nine 10 11 all those holes are birdy looks right especially if you can hit the Fairway so with the soft greens especially with this kind of setup um scoring average is going to get easier um but there are still a few spots that you could really [ __ ] up uh if you're if you're on hold number two you better be watching shot tracker closely uh because uh your guy might blow up very early in the round and uh same on hole number three outside of that though I don't want to say it's smooth sailing um there could be some really tricky slopes right that make these pin locations a little bit harder than they look out here on paper but yeah compared to round one it's not a snack by any means but it's definitely a little bit softer okay sweet yeah we got you Zach just remind me am I making driving at priority yeah for sure especially accuracy off the te I know some talk about being a long golf course right about bombers maybe being being the move but yeah accuracy to me particularly on a day when it's wet is going to be huge out there for tomorrow and uh sometimes it's a stroke penalty as you mentioned sometimes you get a perfect lie out there in that Kentucky Bluegrass so there's a little bit of luck of the draw for sure but guys like seu who made a bunch of birdies today by the way I think he had like seven or eight of them out there in his round I believe he only missed two Fairways on the round so while his iron play wasn't completely dialed in that's why he had some mistakes had some Bogies on the round um the driving accuracy really paid off so I think there's something to that who do I think needs to be the most aggressive to make it on to next week it's a great question NFD so somebody that kind of started a little bit you know hairy right has to play well to move on to the East Lake I think cam young has some work to do he's plus three he's gonna have to be aggressive JT is actually into East Lake but he wants to improve his positioning so maybe I'd go Camy young over JT but both of those players would be prime options a Davis Thompson right he's got to try and get himself as good a score as possible heading out there to the staggered start start those kind of guys like somebody that's like three four over par if you've got any shot at making East Lake they're going to care and they're going to go out there and try and turn it around and I think when you start worrying about guys like giving up and maybe not being as engaged is when we get to like round three like round two I think it's probably a little bit too early to start doing that stuff but uh you're thinking about the right stuff that's for sure that's a that's a sharp take a sharp question and let's take a look at these prop boards now so I do think it's going to play a little bit easier I was able to take a peek at these prop boards before he went live um for just a few minutes and in general I kind of agree with what they've done they've priced it just like they did for round one which if you were going off the round one averages uh these would be far too optimistic but I think what they're accounting for is the fact that the course is likely going to get easier we know that the soft greens are going to make a lot of pins more accessible and based on these locations that we just went through I think the birdie average is going to be right about four per round if not slightly over four per round so over here in Underdog prize picks I get why they've made an adjustment with some of their projections but I don't think that that means that there's not any value so I was going through this before there were some birdies at four that were kind of catching my eye so just to go through these and kind of Point him out uh yeah JT was one he had a 1.1x multiplier who else was it it was okay not a Sam Burns it was a cam young out here at 1.1x and then was it Russell Henley no Russell Henley is at 4 and a half it's not Adam Scott and uh maybe it was Shane Lowry out there at four birdies as well I was looking at pretty much all these guys at 1.1x I'm not sure if I'm going to end up playing them right so these are just you know me brainstorming out here on live stream but but these guys that are at four birdies which is I think going to be the field average out there for tomorrow if they're an above average birdie maker then why not go out there and mix them in and in all three cases here at least in like your average PGA Tour event they would be well above average birdie makers now in this kind of field um cam young still an above average birdie maker um GT Lowry getting a little bit closer to the average but because you've got Lowry JT also teeing off at like 8:25 local time um that's JT's tea time uh live was going off at 8:50 local time over there in Colorado they're going to have some pretty solid conditions out there for tomorrow so I've got to say it's not like I'm not for sure going to be playing those three but they were definitely in consideration because of that 1.1x multiplier it looks like prize picks for whatever reason likes to die whenever I go on live stream here it happened again by the way guys which is uh just comical at this point I have no idea why when I go on live stream my prize picks won't work but let me see if I can get it to work this time it's still giving me a hard time over there but over there on that site there were a few more props that I actually liked so luckily I still remember what I was looking at so it's not going to load if I actually maybe if I just click board it'll open no looks like it's still stuck so we're still [ __ ] out of luck over there but there were some green regulation props I think that made sense so they've got a board it starts at 12 and a half you have some of your lower tier guys at 12 and A2 they've got a few at 13 and 1/2 I think Scotty was 14 greens regulation but you have somebody like a Shane Lowry for example right that's at 12 and a half greens regulation and you know maybe he's a decent lean out there for the over out there tomorrow so I I want to get this board to load on here it looks like it's not going to work for whatever reason I guess on live stream they just don't want me looking at the board for whatever reason uh you can probably take from that what you wish they probably don't want me to try and take their money from them so it worked that time there we go so it was the Shane Lowry one I was looking at once again not 100% sure I'm going to go out there and enter this but those were some of the first leans that I'm looking at so popular tab I want to see what the slap dicks are been on all the the general public that in a lot of cases don't know what they're talking about a lot of Strokes props as you normally see on that side birdie props I was looking at this before uh potentially a few guys at four birdies that could make some sense if I was going to take it over on birdies though I would want them to be in earlier tea time so maybe even like a McIntyre over on birdies on something over there at like four uh I mentioned the Lowry at 12 and a half I think that that one is well within reason uh Fairway props I actually didn't see these ones before but they've got all these guys at 10 and a half a few guys down here at nine and a half Fairways which uh if we go back to the averages before it was right about the field average out there for round one so a player like Alex norin right that's relatively accurate off the te also going off at 7:25 local time might not be the worst over in fact I don't know if he's still above average driver let's let's double check on that fact checked ourself real quick uh I don't think I've looked up his driving accuracy for at least like half a year at this point let's see where he's at number 43 on tour that's actually pretty good better than I thought it would be so yeah maybe it's an Alex norn over mixed up with like the Shane Lowry over on greens um it's 2.75x it's not the greatest payout uh in fact yeah we're going to enter this out here for our slip on Street um reason why I like it is the softer course they're both going off early they're going to be playing on greens that are much softer much more receptive than what they had for round one because of all the rain that they got this afternoon and uh considering the average was right about these for round one right and they didn't play on the softer conditions um you'd have to think that both are going to go up so it would not surprise me if the Fairway average was like 9.7 um maybe even closer to 10 per round so a guy like Alex sorn that's an above average driving accuracy guy right you think he projects for over 10 per round most likely um as Shane Lowry he's been gaining 1.44 actually I think it's 1.14 let me double check shots gained approach per round so yeah over his last 12 measured rounds it's 1.14 shots gained approach per round which is only trailing Aaron Ry who's gaining one and a quarter Tommy Fleetwood is's also gaining about one and a quarter and then Scotty sheffler at 1.16 shots gained approach per round so it goes Ry Tommy Fleetwood Scotty right all three very good IR players you'd expect to see at the top of the list and then Shane Lowry so if you're looking for somebody that's been hitting the irons will has an early tea time softer golf course I mean you name it right pretty much every Edge you could talk about there I'm also an above average accuracy player out there on the PGA tour then that's what you're getting right there in terms of the underdog stuff I'm not 100% sure I'm going to enter this as a Slip but that over on JT then that over on cam young I don't hate right both of them played pretty sour today right both were well over par but that means they have to be aggressive I know we got the question before about the guys that have to move themselves up to try and make a mark out there for East Lake I think you're going to get that with both of these players U both are 1.1x multipliers um over here on priz pick I believe they're at four without a multiplier so let's see so cam young and JT so yeah it looks like they don't have those two posted over here on the board which U I don't know could be a million different reasons right they don't have those two in particular posted but at 1.1x multiplier there's a there's a good chance that if I don't enter this specific combination that I take one of these two guys and mix them in with something else so that's what I'll say for my first leans over there on Underdog and prize pick uh let's take a look at a pick six real quick and then uh we'll Circle back on chat see what's going on down there all right so Strokes over here pretty low for being honest out there for The Strokes lines uh birdie lines you four and a half for a lot of players maybe an over on Rory isn't the worst idea okay we'll actually throw that one into the shopping cart boogies are worse two and a half for fagala and IM and then only one other one posted out there at one and a half for Scotty so yeah these Strokes lines are pretty damn low I'd have to say um these birdie lines though I don't this Rory over I honest I don't even hate a Windam Clark over at four and a half birdies but we don't have many options out here for strokes and if anything comparatively it'd want to fade compared to some of the other sports books so just to give you an idea why I say that like Rory's at 70 and a half for example if you go over there to pick six he's at 69 and a half Strokes so that's a 0.5 discrepancy Xander shafley is at 69 and a half over here in priz pick he's at 68 Strokes over there on the pick six side now can't play Pick six myself so I'm not going to be getting exposure over there but you can make an argument that the plus EV play compared to sports books Underdog price picks all that kind of stuff would be to take an over on like Xander shafley stroke so that's what I'll say about pick six I actually kind of like this over on Rory birdies um just to get a little bit of comparison let me see if we have lines posted on any of these Sports books Cu uh I think we had a comment saying that we did before so looks like uh nothing on DraftKings quite yet but let's see what we got over here so round scores posted on FanDuel let's go and then yeah we have round score on Caesars let me see if we have birdie props looks like we do okay so those are the birdie props let's see r r Mack is a three and a half Juiced over okay where is Rory Mack Rory so Rory is at four and a half and he's even money so I don't think that should kind of talk you off of playing him but just kind of hoping to see like a minus 150 towards the over there not going to lie but hey you don't always get what you want out there with these props that's for sure let's sketch up on chat real quick thank you sir hope all is well and how are my migraines they've been pretty decently lately nft uh I do have to say reason why the lights are off for this live stream reason why it's probably a little bit darker in my face is because I was dealing with a little bit of a headache but you can see me slurping down water over here it's doing W so uh thank you for checking in on that by the way it's uh it is something that I deal with with a lot but uh going pretty well right now at least lately going well pricee picks are legit afraid of you what a coward site did they move those already or were you talking about because they wouldn't let me see the board yeah so they haven't moved them quite yet but uh I have to think it's because I'm live streaming or something that somehow their like location services are like picking up on that is that would be my guess right is that for some reason it's blocking it but who knows live bet a to win this thing you probably got some juicy odds on that dendon so I've got to say I hope he wins because I took him pre week to go out there and win and considering he made seven birdies he's got a good chance to make it uh at least at least if he can clean up the play right not make two double bogeys uh maybe keep the ball a little bit more in play than he did today he certainly has a lot of room for improvement Rory's over four and a half birdies is plus 100 yeah dude if I could bet him at plus 100 so just give me that even money I would so yeah dude if you have access to that uh on Prop sites you're getting likeus 120 to likeus 140 odds depending on the kind of slip that you're entering plus 100 I I'd be a huge buyer on right there's a huge difference between me taking them on a prop site and then over there at plus 100 if I could take the plus 100 I I sure as [ __ ] would that's for sure and yeah for some reason Antonio it's not showing the FanDuel birdie board for me I know the other day you were saying the same thing right they had the birdie board up for you but it wasn't showing up for me I've got no idea why they're doing that that's definitely kind of strange let's see what we have for Bogies so I know we looked at the birdies but I'm want to look at Bogies now so a lot of them Juiced over and some even at three and a half Bogies H interesting we're not going to spend all day here in live stream as it's now 1110 p.m. over here on the East Coast but uh definitely wanted to look through those a little bit here on live stream that's all I've got for this actually somebody wanted to know about matchups so I did not forget about you Zach if you're still around I'm going to touch on those matchups for you I know you didn't remind me so hopefully you're still around to catch this information but uh I'll at least look at them for you hey Luke loving the streams once again what do I think about fleetwood's overall performance going into round two so I've got to say for Showdown purposes uh the tea time is the only thing that I think is slightly sub ideal but ball striking stats were there round one um putter hasn't been there for a few weeks so though a lot of times like you'd look for somebody like that to go out there and bounce back I'm a little bit more sketchy about it out there with Fleetwood because he's been in this funk with the putter for a few weeks now so hopefully he can get it figured out I mean it could flip at any point and when it does you're probably going to see a really low score from Tommy Fleetwood because he's been hitting the ball beautifully ta green so that's what I would say about him Jordan is that I think things are looking up for him long term he's you know hitting the ball that's the most sustainable part of golf by the way hitting the golf ball well he's been doing that and usually good things come from that let's talk about these matchups so I'm not sure what site you're playing on Zach but I'm just going to go through these and see if anything really catches my mind and I guess what I would want to use as an edge out there for these matchup bets is that I think that guys that can keep the ball in play are going to see a distinct Advantage so for example this Adam Scott versus oxe matchup OE is a much more accurate driver than Adam Scott now I think the other thing that's working for Adam Scott's favor here though would be that he's really used to Elevation he's uh practiced uh he went to college out there at UNLV out there in Las Vegas um it's played at about half the elevation of this event but still a lot of the same things that you work on there would translate out here to Colorado so I kind of like A's driving accuracy but that keeps me off for making that a bet so maybe a slight lean towards o over an Adam Scott there but I don't know if it's enough to bet particularly because of the altitude stuff a Poston versus Diet Tre I do think that dri is the better player so despite I'm not having as good a round today I get why he's the favorite so once again that one's probably a no bet but I do think that dietre probably wins that one more than 50% what else cor Connors versus Burns so maybe that's why we had the question there before about like maybe Sam Burns having that regression yeah you're going to take that bet between Cory Connors and Sam Burns I would want to take the Sam Burns side he's the better player between the two and if anything maybe regression helps them a little bit let's see Ry versus fenal they've got fenal as the favorite I've got to say based on how they played around one Tony fenal gained a bunch of Strokes of the putter gained around the green which I won't complain about because he helped me hit my Strokes bet today but at the same time that is very unsustainable so I think my favorite matchup and it's not just the fact that round one wasn't that great for Tony fenal but lately Aaron Ry might be the best player in the field right obviously Scotty's better Xander and better Fields has had better performances but in terms of raw shots gained per round he's up there in the top three with those other two players so if you're looking for a hot player you're looking for the hot hand somebody that actually played pretty decently um up until the very end of his round today that he's certainly an option out there so I'm gonna take him over Tony which I know that sounds crazy and he's still only minus 105 but because he's playing much better Golf and because you could argue that Tony fow is due for a little bit of a letdown after his shots gain metrics today I don't know if that's the worst bet in fact I I had X's to the minus 105 I'm just going to double check right now on Hard Rock bet to see what we've got if I can take anything in that same ballpark I'm going to now hard rock bet I believe does theirs with a tie out there with their matchup bets so I might not be able to take that same kind of number but let's see what we've got over there and if you're in Florida if you're a hard rock bet person I'll let you know if it's worth taking right here so BMW Championship you got the matchups Tab and I think it's the yeah it'll be under the two balls tab I'm assuming let's see so Aaron Ry versus Tony feno oh so he's a no it's a head to-head so that's not the two ball right they're not matched up against each other tomorrow who do they have Aaron Ry versus is I guess the question versus no one it looks like in fact his two ball his Aon r two ball is against two against Justin Thomas oh my goodness actually I found a better bet guys so as we were looking for this bet against t f now I found a much better option Aaron Ry and this I guess the tie kind of takes away from the odds a little bit here but he's minus 105 versus Justin Thomas and Justin Thomas looks completely lost out there it's not like I think that GT can't turn it around I certainly hope he does for the sake of some of my main slate exposure but with Aaron ry's form and how he played in round one was very sustainable from the shots gain metrics I would have a hard time not wanting to take him over Justin Thomas so if you can find the two ball between Aaron Ry GT minus 105 is what I have available on Hard Rock but there's a good chance that after we get off live stream here that end up taking that myself where we at fenal sheffler morawa Rory won't play good until East Lake he says fade Keegan hey thanks for the takes I guess I agree with you on the fact that Keegan's a fade not so sure about the Rory take and then I'm with you on two of those three guys so I can't complain too much about what you said I don't know if agree with everything though and of course Zach I've got you on the matchup talk let's go through a few other ones on here too he said watch out for Henley I like that one too got say ski mask you're very aggressive with your takes but I like them Ry is minus 120 against JT on FanDuel I'd Hammer that Antonio I'm assuming the tie would be a void in that case a hard rock bet it would be a loss out there as a tie but yeah minus 120 if you take out the draw odds would be great out there at that kind of number let's see what else we got for matchups so adiki versus Oar that's pretty close yeah I'd probably stay away from that one for all intensive purposes it's see Cam Davis versus H it's pretty even Billy hover is just cam young i' take Billy but Billy's a sizable favorite there minus 125 Scotty versus havland Scotty is minus 230 that's crazy what else sth versus sunj got to say sth definitely definitely doe for some regression so maybe he's not the worst play there and then you got the two butt buddies matched up with each other you've got Patrick Klay and Xander shley there uh that one's probably appropriate odds I would say minus 165 for shafley is about where I'd have him out there for his odds so that's all we got for the matchups I did at least want to take a peek at those out there for Zach um but that's all I've got out there for the round two live stream so if you're still hanging around love you guys hanging around to the end of things here go ahead smash that like button if you haven't already which first off if you haven't what are you waiting for silly but also subscribe to the channel so you don't miss any of the content to come rounds three and four we'll be doing the same exact thing so if you found this round two preview especially helpful and want to make sure you're not missing that over the weekend well if you subscribe you'll get a notification when I'm going live and you won't miss all that content over the weekend on top of that we're going to have the East Lake content um some on boots action out there for East Lake unless something changes drastically I plan on being there out there next week and uh giving you guys the goods out there on the renovations uh it's going to be a completely different course they've torn up all the greens out there at East Lake and we're going to have that The Showdown content this weekend also NFL stuff the week after that uh it's going to be an absolute blast which Speaking of guys make sure to check out the patreon page if you haven't already of course on there is where you can gu the spreadsheets that I saw posted in my videos um those of course are my patreon content so on there everything that's blacked out is what you can find on the golf DFS tier um that'll have my project player poll ownership everything that was blacked out on there and then the prop side of things so if you're looking for actually what I'm going with an underdog and prize pick right I gave you guys the prize pick slip uh we went over a few ideas over there in Underdog but if you want to see where I'm actually putting my money right you know put your you know money where your mouth is as a lot of people would say um then make sure to check out the patreon page I'm posting all my slips on there all the different reasoning and projections for why I'm getting discern players on there and not only will you be able to see and tail whatever you'd like over there behind that but you're also going to get a lot of process-based tips right you're going to learn how to be a better golf better by being on that um so make sure to check out the patreon for that also shipit Nation right can't forget our presenting sponsors here um code Lop 10 as I mentioned before right a discount off any membership and uh that's all I've got guys plugs out of the way hopefully you feel a little bit more prepared out there for Friday and uh let's get after it this weekend