PGA Tour Championship Betting Preview: East Lake Showdown

to take us home feels like the start of the well I don't know we feel like I enjoy the start of the season but definitely feels like the end of the season and he has our last well not really we don't even have that much time off it is the end of the season is the Tour Championship what's going on buddy not much and yeah it is the end of the season uh swing season is going to be fun though as usual if you're a golf Hardo if you just enjoy betting golf if you think you have an advantage there I think there's a lot of people that have advantages there if you pay attention and I feel like I've done better on matchups in some of the Swing season events where you know it's a lot of the also rans and has beenin that are playing but after this we do take a week off from golf essentially you know there will be BP BP DP the Omega next week but procure in two weeks for Napa that's what the what did Napa used to be called fortnet fortnet yeah so now is the procure procore or procure um in Napa week off uh ahead of the President's Cup which is a lot of fun if you like that anyone who's unfamiliar it's the Ryder Cup except us versus Europe it's US versus anyone who is not Europe Canadians um uh any Asians South Korea Australia uh South Africa they're big in that um I'm not I'm not sure if we'll see anyone from the subcon continent or any other Asian countries besides Japan and South Korea those are kind of the big countries sometimes you know sometimes some South America perhaps but uh president cup should be fun and then you got the Sanderson we got the new one the black desert in Utah Shriner Zozo worldwide Tech Bermuda RSM Hero World Grant Thorton and the PNC some of those in December the format is a little different but there still is you know 10 11 tournaments this year we'll do We're not gonna do an hour on the Sanderson Farms but we'll we'll gather yeah I know that is one of the better ones we'll gather together our thoughts and sit down for 20 minutes half hour and do a a betting show because I'm gonna bet on all these events especially you know the President's Cup isn't super th those style tournaments aren't great for betting for the most part they're fun but it's hard to get a lot of bets in dayto day on that I know I bet on the rider Cup every time but uh so yeah this is this is the the end but not really we do have our swing season content we'll we'll do our best anything else you guys want to hear about or talk about or if you have any questions we will certainly cover those on shows as we'll have time which kind of leads me into not it's not the best time it's not like the best time for me to pitch you on signing up for bsb's golf but this is a limited deal we have look at this full screen here oh buddy it is available in 46 States so it's one of those things where a full year membership is $250 regular price if you don't get a some sort of you know a a promo code that you're using on this I will give it to you for 10 if you sign up for a rebat account using our promo code BSG and you know depositing 10 bucks so it's one of those grasshopper ant things where maybe you're not so excited about signing up for a golf membership and you know using it to model the Zozo in a month and a half but come January when it's you know if you want to get repped or maybe you want to sign up for a sub it's 30 a month 250 a year when you could have just been sitting on a $10 membership for longest so this and the only reason I'm pushing this is this is limited not going to have this offer in January I doubt I'll have this offer later in the fall once we get uh a certain amount of signups I'm just not going to have this offer anymore so take advantage the links are in the description of the podcast and YouTube 46 out of 50 states if you live in one of those four states by God DM us and we'll we'll try to help you out with some sort of other promo code because I do want to help out the poor people of uh Idaho Montana Nevada and the Wolverine state State Michigan where our friend R is from so take advantage of that if you uh if you like to think ahead now that you can give yourself a pat on the back saying look at I was thinking ahead uh the Masters I have a full subscription I'm running models I'm making stuff I'm reading the premium content so just something to think about I appreciate you guys and also if you are watching please do click the Subscribe button that helps us out as well we enjoy doing these shows we enjoy rapping about golf every week and even this week what's your overarching thought on the Tour Championship you set off the air you don't have any bets yet I haven't made a bet yet I mean obviously and if you you're watching the show you probably have an understanding of kind of how it works they've tried and uh you know I saw actually a clip this morning on like the tiger win at East Lake in 2018 rose fex cup Justin Rose won the FedEx Cup uh but they at that time that was like they still had a event where you know you had the rolling FedEx Cup points and then you had a separate tournament and they've changed it so it's I guess because it's easier to follow right there's no split coverage I think it's probably an easier television product to give you just here's the leaderboard but yeah uh we wanted to reward this is a supposed to be a season long playoff situation we want to like reward our guys that have been good all season so we're going to start them in a staggered scoring situation and um you I've seen some some conversations around how to do it differently I think we all agree that some form of match play would be better it's also a highly variant scenario where it's like 18 holes is that a great way to to like Crown a champion I don't know it's like the PGA Tour has this this big massive prize pool that they have to dish out at the end of the year and they're like do we want to watch really rich golfers earn more money at the tail end of the year it's not something that like I'm super stoked about but like they have to get rid of this money somehow um I don't know what it is I would love to see it maybe over a course of like a couple of weeks and go to like a couple different courses add a little bit of uh of match play element to it take it out west and do some Pebble or Riv and do something back and like you know some beautiful golf courses that we love to see and it's just I don't know mix it up if you want to do it that way it's it's kind of a tough thing to to have one Champion it's a major like to these guys they don't it's not a major to them that's a hard this this is like let's say you're set let's say you're one of the guys who has the money you have major sponsorship deals You've Won events you're Rich As [ __ ] like this is what seventh fiddle like you you would much rather win any of the four majors than anything that's one two three and four without doubt if you are good enough to have a major or in that you're are playing Team golf uh and you the rider cup I was I was going to say it's the four majors it's the Ryder Cup and the players and then this this is so that's the problem and you know I was trying to put my thumb on exactly why we're disenchanted with this other than just you know it's being a small field event and it it is it is the what if the Super Bowl was the seventh most uh you know alluring thing you could win in football it wouldn't that just doesn't make a damn bit of sense and you know a big part of what makes playoffs and endof year championship you know solving kind of games exciting I mean think about March Madness think about even you know some fall Classics or even Super Bowl runs that we've had underdogs like a Plucky Underdog is fun that's kind of what I put my finger on like it's really fun to see you know Loyola Chicago make a run even if they didn't win at all like that's what you remember from March madnesses you remember you know big under making it to the playoffs like the Rams back in the late 90s or even even some of these teams who just have won two or three games of the playoffs have have done something the Royals winning the World Series that one year you just just some some wild stories like that and I mean you you've cut off any possibility of that from the kick go because there's only 30 golfers in this first off and second off the staggered scoring Andy lack I actually listened to his podcast uh part last night night paron this morning um just to see what he had to say about it it turned out he got deep into the golf the country club snob drama which was funny too but once he got to it and it was on my list of things to double check but he talked about the the five times that this has happened and it's basically like Rory went berserk twice yeah and won from five under and four under everything else has been two times the 10 other guys won and I I believe the fifth time was the the second place you know last year uh was uh was Victor who was I think was second or third y started 8 under so ENT and he he said this from a betting standpoint it's a good point it's How We Do Awards how we do a lot of Futures like you gotta cross some people off and I don't even know if 4 under is realistic even though Rory did it once everybody from 4 under is a cross off I think and then that leaves you what the top five six names even if you want to keep Rory and you know maybe somebody like can't l or morawa in there at four under what are we at eight or nine guys so I think that's what takes away a lot of the Allure of betting on this event is there's like seven or eight people maybe fewer that can win this and again hat tipped Mr lack he pointed out the same thing I'm GNA point out is we've probably never had one of these where the top two have been quite this strong either you know he talked about his his fair number for Scotty or Xander to win this being like minus 400 and I didn't strongly disagree with that you know he joked about minus 275 is what's offered it's like it's probably value so it it does oh God what I write I I I started to sus this out in the newsletter and I wrote like it just it takes away any sort of drama that we might have like we actually probably are sitting on two outliers that Rory was able to do what he did twice like if we play this event this way 10 more times feels like that probably doesn't happen again it's likely the top three or four guys that win the next 10 events and I said it's like uh what if we you know USA USSR hockey match hey let's uh USSR has been good for like 30 years let's start the match at 5 nothing that's we should we should reward them for their season long you know so I don't I don't the answer match play is hard to pull off because at the end of it you're having a One V one which leaves massive gaps in airtime yeah that's the thing right they want to make it a good television product right and that's that I understand and that's why we're that's how we landed here and we have to all be aware of that and that's really what their design is is to you know they have investors and they have uh bosses and AD Revenue that they are beholden to so their their goal is to do something to reward a season long ending uh to the season knowing that again their Super Bowl is essentially in April uh with a handful of other ones along the way and uh yeah I don't I like the element of of match play if you if you did some sort of stagger thing here where like a handful of guys are you know at a certain point you earn you if you're below the threshold you're one and done if you're above the threshold you move into to like the losers bracket so like you even if you've been like Scotty can't get bumped and won and done and lose and be out for the season he moves in to the loser bracket he continues to work his way out and then all of a sudden you can find you know Scotty Xander in a different way like that's some sort of way to like incentivize the top of the guys I don't know I'm just that that would be really interesting to me because I think that would be not great television per se um but like put it at the backdrop of while some of the other guys are playing for something I don't know like a 72 hole or 18 hole like actual stroke I don't know are you are you familiar with the FA Cup I may have just solved this no is this soccer it is soccer so are you're familiar zero on soccer yeah but you're you're familiar with the English Premier League and it's the highest level of soccer probably in the world right relation yeah there so there's 20 teams and you understand relegation so there's a level below that there's a level below that and there's levels and levels there's like 20 levels of that pyramid so the FA Cup is something you know similar to what we saw with uh the inseason tournament in basketball or how the European basketball teams have to do Euro Cup or Euro league where they're playing another League while they're doing their their League season whether they're in the league of for like you know Madrid or some of these Turkish teams so the FA Cup is a tournament and it's a bracket but they don't introduce it's it's so you I I had to look this up there are 74 it's a 745 Team Bracket which is very big people people joke about making March Madness bigger and that's a problem 745 teams are in this bracket so obviously you know Manchester City isn't they get a buy to like you know to like the 10th round or whatever however it works you know they slowly introduce the the upper leagues but you do get fun storylines of some like some [ __ ] all team from God knows where on glass brry that's like you know the butcher is the goalie and they all have jobs and they just win like two too many matches because Sports is unique and sometimes variance kicks in and suddenly this team that you know is [ __ ] you know County team that won too many matches is playing against like a highlevel EPL team and you know every few years you get a really fun story like that that's that's maybe how the match play Works where you know they they set up these other events the Monday qualifiers vs aren't familiar so every open has a Monday qualifier where they have another usually another course nearby in the area where they play the qualifier so you get another course nearby these events and you play some Tuesday match play where hey guess what you're you know it's based off last year's ranking everybody who like 200 to 299 you are in a bracket to start and on Tuesdays you have to go play wherever this tournament is and you got to make it if you want to be trying to advance in this because there's a lot of prize money and then eventually you start as the bracket gets smaller you start introducing the big names and it just kind of goes it'd be fun if it went on like all year long and I don't care about uh you know single elimination at that point if you get if you get bu to if you get bu to the fifth round you're Scotty Sheffer you should be beating you know I don't care how Charlie Hoffman's been playing in the match play for like the last six months you should you should be able to take him out seven and six such his life so I don't hman beat Scotty at the waste management this year right I mean it was it was Charlie Hoffman and Nick Taylor and not Scotty that's yeah I mean that's how life goes so I don't obviously I don't I don't think we're gonna see anything like that but that would be really fun if they had some long ranging you know hey we've been doing match play this bracket has taken four months to get here we're down to the Final Four and then you do for [ __ ] sakes not Memphis or Atlanta it's so hot it's gonna be so hot again like figure it out go play up at Beth Page go play at oakill play somewhere I mean it's not like it's not hot up here but it's so hot in the South right now it's August so I don't know how they do it but I would like to see some Northern Golf and yeah match play would be very cool I like I like Memphis I thought I think it brings an interesting uh there's some risk in that back nine and I think it's interesting can we play there somewhere another time in the year like I'm not saying don't go to that course March yeah like just Incorporated at another time same thing with this now we have obviously that's kind of the interesting point for what we have going on this week at East Lake is we have a completely renovated golf course we have they have not no one's put a peg in the ground here since they walked off last year this is the no members have played here there's there's no golf has happened so you know we're seeing a Andrew Green for the first time he's had some successful ones in his pocket over the last couple years and it's hard not to be encouraged based off of his track record and some of the things that we've heard so I'm interested to hear some more stuff from the players today around their thoughts on it because that's also been the interesting thing here too is that you got Rory and Xander with some pretty Immaculate course history here and Scotty's kind of you know giving it back this is you know a couple times here being the 10 under guy and has not taken it down here too but now over one's kind of starting from scratch uh so that doesn't typically Bode super well either so um that's another interesting part of it too and that's another thing too Scotty if you kind of look Scotty's track record of like first time there that's not been good for Scotty Scotty's track record on like I've been here a few times I figured it out now I can roll and dominate uh first time there Scotty is not not very uh vantastic I guess compared to his his rolling Baseline so new course uh they stretched it out a little bit it's uh going to be par 71 you know some new everything is new and that's Andrew Green's thing here is like basically everything that we've had since the last time you saw it no shot is the same is what basically what the talking point is so interested to see how that plays and banking on a place where course history I think has mattered a little bit we have a little bit more of uh a variant outcome here this week but again to your point and what Andy was saying there too we do have a situation where feels like the top two guys have pulled away and you kind of go down with the way that they've done this too is that they they've made the playoffs triple points that's how you have Hideki in the three spot he didn't even play last week like had a great opening round and the backs out like my back's a little tight I'm take off like yeah full full hii keegs just goes berserk and now he's fourth right no one would have no one's looking at this going Keegan had a better year than Rory who's won three times on the season Colin who has hasn't won but has been in the mix every single week it feels like um you know B now Kean is Two Shots ahead of those guys ludvig has been you know on cruise control and in the mix very you know often um you know these guys have now worked their way into a spot where they're way ahead of everyone too so that's just kind of another wild piece are we gonna have Keegan again are we gonna have Hadi with the back variable um chase down Scotty and Xander it feels like a tough spot for that too so they without Scotty markets I know even FanDuel has without Scotty Xander markets if you're looking to get I think cute down the board that feels safer to me obviously you're paying the freight for that but uh those are out there as well so that's kind of the way to to shop the Betty Market not not only that as well you have the gross score you can bet you know you can bet um just they call it the ghost leaderboard or Shadow leaderboard I'm trying to think of the name that some of these give it so like you know somebody could shoot 10 under but if it's Tommy Fleetwood and Scotty shoots four under he's still not in first but and the ghost leader board you know his gross score would be the best and that's that's something you see people get involved with every year and I think there's a few guys that are further down the board like Russell Henley going nuts on a on a course like this that requires a high degree of accuracy like his numbers can be kind of big for gross score like there's a couple long shots you could take on Gross score where hey this guy finished ninth out of 30 but he actually shot three Strokes better than a lot of you know a lot of the other guys so I I am gonna take some shots on the gross score leaderboard I might look at that no Scotty no Xander leaderboard and see what we can get for you know probably Rory to see you know his price you can see it there five to one on FanDuel again chop around just wanted to show some this is again winner without Scotty uh Xander but with starting Strokes yeah it is still you know the normal leaderboard so I don't mind Rory in that spot where he just has to you know jump over what we say ludig matu y Keegan at that point he's shown uh good course history here but like you said I mean basically any quote I've seen has said hey this is a different course like basically you could have just dropped us off at a different course so not only did they they removed hundreds of trees they redid everything like every inch of grass was replaced essentially is what they said the bunkers are completely different the trees are gone the fairways are different sizes they rerouted they added that uh stroke to the par it's no longer a short or a longer downhill four it's kind of a shorter five so it's saying like maybe course history is not going to matter at all here although it is still similar gromy you know still similar it's still in the same spot we're still in the southwest or Southeast excuse me so you know guys who've played well in similar courses maybe we could look at a little giving them a little bump but at the same time it's probably just going to come down to accuracy here because and again hat tip to Andy lack for pointing this out but this is one of those that's might just become obvious as we start to watch you're hitting out of Bermuda rough if you're not accurate and it can it can really affect spin and if you can't control your spin these greens are brand new and as he pointed out brand new greens are hard as rocks like that's just how they build them that's how you have to build it they soften up over the years from being used and if you're not controlling your Spin and your flight out of the rough you're not g to catch many greens you're just you're just gonna have a really bad time hitting your greens and regulation so honestly I don't know if there's going to be a higher penalty for rough at a lot of places that don't actually have that tall of rough where it's just going to be ball control flight control out of that Premier to rough and really really got upweight accuracy I think yeah that I think that's a good point you said the Agronomy stays the same we still have zoa Fairways we still have Bermuda everywhere there are more shaved runoffs around the greens too which I think is a better test I think we all agree shave runoffs around the green to and's point here when we're missing greens that's inevitable because there is a high missed Fairway penalty I think that will remain uh being able to you know pick it clean off of Short Grass is harder than you know when you have thick rough aprons around the green and that shots very similar to everyone there's definitely a skill level to be able to navigate chipping on short surfaces when you're pitching into an elevated green if you were unable to hold it to so yeah I mean Fairways are still going to matter here more so than uh a standard event and that's kind of what we've seen here historically and I think we still see that again but again the guys are hitting different shots um kind of some mid-range accuracy points in terms of proximity where you have you know some like heavy in that like 120 150 bucket and then a lot of 200 plus uh kind of The Dead Zone there is those little you know 150 175 that we typically see a lot of and there's really no short uh you know you're not going to have any like 100 in basically those are going to be you know chip shots those are really not on the card for most guys here so that's a thing to look at too if you like and again like I always push back on that because if you're telling me Fairways are hard to find then I have to divvy up proximity from the rough proximity from the Fairway and an equal amount and distances and all those things get kind of tricky to navigate but I do think that that's somewhat of a thing here too so looking at the screen here 72 hole stroke play winner without starting strokes this is if we were dealing with a normal tournament Andy we're just betting the tournament no starting strokes and it's interesting to see Scotty and Xander at the same number considering you know Scotty was a little bit of a little [ __ ] fest last weekend you know you had a little bit of uh some variables you had some of that pine straw some of those uh Wire Grass things that's not the best version of Scotty had a little bit of elevation uh some like thin air Colorado doesn't seem to be be the best Scotty uh not playing as best and you know Xander just kind of cruise control again finds himself in the mix on a Sunday like he kind of always does but uh this is the board if you were just betting straight up Rory 10 right behind those guys yeah and like I said Russell Henley at 20 to1 22 to1 something I could probably get interested in as far as some of the guys that are further down the port I don't know I'd have to look a little you know probably tossing Windom I don't know if his uh long and a little wild translates super well here um sunj pops possibly that's somebody I can get interested maybe feno as well like if I'm doing this I'm just I'm doing some small bets and two or three longer shots yeah I don't believe the winner of this has ever been the minus 10 guy the winner of the 72 uh yeah I don't think so right because actually uh I think havlin did he win both last year I think he won both yeah obviously Rory won both when he did his two from four and five but both both times were we saw the you know the minus 10 winner win the event they were not the lowest aggregate gross score what have you somebody else was a lower score further down the leaderboard and didn't win so something to look at I don't know yeah it's not with with Scotty having to navigate a brand new course and I he grabbed his back one day and looks a I don't know he looks a little tired of playing golf and raising a kid now looks like he's he's ready for an off season honestly I don't know like is the money going to motivate him like oh man I really got to win this and CU like what's his floor what if he plays pretty bad what he getting like fifth you know what fifth pays like a million dollars right no it's more than that I think I think because I saw I think it was a Justin Ray tweet which shout out to Justin Ray uh always good stuff he had said in uh 1994 two golfers had made uh like seven and a half million it was Tom Kite Greg Norman third place in this event then that's career earnings two guys in 1994 who made that money uh third place this week gets that that price fifth place fifth place is still like well this doesn't makes sense I think fifth place is wrong in this uh article in reading but fourth place is six million it says if if you took 10th Place 1.75 million like again he's made his money I don't think it's be like oh man I really need this 25 M 25 million sounds nice but it's not going to like change his life at this point no it's already over 40 I think for the year just on on course stuff yeah I think you're getting at least 500,000 for even being here basically I think is is how the bottom guys got get paid out so um yeah it's it's a yeah I'm just interested to see I think you know he doesn't get the full off season interested to see how much we see if Scotty outside of the President's Cup obviously which is what we have here this is a um without Scotty only so if you want to get into some Xander Xander at plus 110 uh that's with starting Strokes so that's maybe interesting right to to Andy LA's Point like if you think Xander and Scotty at minus 275 are pretty interesting and you know probably value comparatively if I'm pulling Scotty out of it and I got Xander at plus 110 that that might be that might be a pretty interesting look to be honest um with starting Strokes so might have to Circle back to that one price that out see if that uh see if that makes any sense so um everyone can head over to the site read Ron's preview on the Tour Championship uh it's obviously Ron's previews all Ron's content will continue all off season again if you take advantage of that rebate deal or you subscribe now for the season uh the rabbit hole will continue to yeah be a thing updated adjusted show this yesterday and I will show it to folks again today uh new addition here on the player Pages which is really really cool if you click on any player's name in The Rabbit Hole you obviously get to their player page obviously fantastic photo of Xander here you can get their rolling performance and get an understanding of how they play in certain conditions here a rolling summary here I think is super useful as well to get an understanding of how they're playing we now have finishing position summary which is awesome and you can't find some of this anywhere else you're gonna get uh top fives top 10 top 20s even the top 30s and top 40s which you cannot find elsewhere the made cut number you will see does not match the starts number that's because that is taking into account the no cut events those have been removed so the made cut is in events where cut is a thing um you got a rolling three years down here as well so you can get an understanding of you know Baseline prices on finishing position bets a great way to look at again how a player is playing compared to year-over-year uh which is just absolutely awesome to see you see you know the leap here rander in particular you know winning events you top five rate coming very high you know higher than normal top 10 he's basically doubled up this season just the level of consistency here is is through the roof again you can get obviously the results page as well and see specific performance at each of the events so again click on any name in the rabbit hole it'll jump to the guy player page you could search up here if you want to look at anyone in particular got all that data dialing back now to 2016 so continue to add new things in the rabbit hole and uh on the site in terms of data and stuff for you so Seasons passed you were relying on our content to uh keep you up Ronald continue to do all content typically don't do a DFS show in the offseason but Andy and I will pop in here on the offseason but every written piece of content there from Ron on the site will remain so you get his DFS player pool his betting articles uh course previews all that stuff and again obviously the rabbit hole is so take advantage of that offer so uh what do you want to do here we're kind of pushing on time we can look at some models that have already been built let's look at some yeah let's look at some expert rankings all right let's go in here can pull up some models that have been already built by folks we have h a couple for Andy lack uh our first look show you can see Matt venzi of tapping in podcast he's got his here too this is yeah we got two from lack let's see lack second take a look at what Andy did here second time you want to see again inside golf podcast that uh my Andy here is referencing um this is Andy LAX model here you can see Xander at the top Scotty havin ludvig Henley who you called out there uh Tommy six kley seven Rory eight sunjay nine porsel is his top 10 the interesting thing that's I want to point out as I did yesterday we got 30 guys so when we get into the gradient and the discrepancy in certain areas um especially when you get into certain categories here it's a little bit tricky to get an understanding of of how a guy is performed comparatively he might not be as bad as it says right the actual Delta between his performance and you know what you saw uh this is a great way to do it um I'm gonna bring this up here too this is and Ron had this call out yesterday it's a great way to take a look at um you can actually download into the CSV and it actually will give you the score of what someone had um and then it'll show you here in a different way so you can actually see the discrepancy of score comparatively so this actually will show you how big of a gap between what this total score is with Xander and Scotty um and then the rest of the field kind of understanding the tiers a little bit here too so uh shows you in a different way where guys rank in those in those models so which I think is pretty cool so he's looking at stroke gained off the te he's looking at driving accuracy um it does not bucket it out for us so let's go back here and see if we can look at this doesn't let me do two things at once which is a problem but I like that I like that ability to kind of look and share it in a way that shows you kind of what the actual math is where the where the Gap is between you know first and second here so see he's looking at off the te just blanket bucket last 36 rounds accuracy as well last 50 rounds again I would love to see some distance from the edge of the Fairway Andy let getting that in there here uh off the te on difficult to hit Fairways interesting again I think there's a little bit of assumption there because we don't know how it's going to play 36 last 36 on approach he's bucketing out Fairways uh 125 to 150 like I was touching on and Fairways 200 plus he's looking at greens and rag from the rough last 50 rounds let's see if we have that Bermuda yep Bermuda filter for that uh I think that makes a ton of sense around the green l 50 rounds from Bermuda as well looking at uh man he looks at a lot of stuff uh Bermuda putting last three years bird you're better from the rough greens and R Fairway this is where zoa again small sample we don't get a lot of zoa he's looking at course history on East Lake even though we get a redo here and last one is Strokes gain total uh cor lar courses Anis Brook in Florida that we come down here for the Valspar and sedgfield which we just played a couple weeks ago for the Windom Championship as cor Larry courses so um hey your boy Russell Henley or my boy Russell Henley who you shed out there the top five here as well any thoughts on Andy's model yeah I wouldn't uh he's ours you know shared custody I would think love it yeah it's hard it's hard to probably put together any sort of model using you know anything that makes sense and not have Scotty and Scotty and shaffle near the top that's G to be like lud fig isn't um some I'm excited to bet on right now I guess despite his skill set and I don't know that length is going to be Uber important here as well for some of the guys who hit it a long way it's like if you're long but not you know not super accurate I'm not sure I'm super in love with you so I I don't mind some guys with some some lesser driving distance that have the high accuracy you can see one and two there right in row Tommy lad and Russell Henley maybe that's my bets Tommy lad Russell Henley in the uh just go low gross gross leaderboard because they're both like too under to start they're not women they're clearly in the C they're in the cross off range so but they're going to be 20 25 or bigger to to win the gross the gross scoring title so couple guys I'd be looking at it's just hey accuracy you're good enough to be here you certainly have the approach game like uh obviously Russ Russell's good enough on approach to find his way to these greens as hard as it will be and yeah I'm just uh probably looking for some guys with some high upside big yeah big distribution guys Aaron Ry is interesting in like the just straight up market like at like 50 or so in change just especially with maybe sedgfield being a COR lary you know giving a high weight to accuracy off the te um you know not played quite as well the last couple weeks but just all season long has been so strong the putting on bermuda's been really good I'll see where he's popping on that um which is you know I think surprising um yeah not great comparatively but I mean part of it is too like my point is is I was looking just last 50 rounds at these guys and like you look there's one guy Matthew pavon is the only guy in this field who is losing strokes and barely um like less than a tenth of a point Strokes gained over the last 50 rounds or whatnot so right we're we're in a 30-man field these numbers are relevant to each other uh but all these guys have been playing you know good golf for the majority of the year that's why they're here so it's definitely a unique week even in the rabbit hole too so um Aaron Ry is interesting to me um this feels like something like Colin or like Patrick kentley would would like show up and do well at where they've had kind of like a a little bit disappointing year compared to what we would expect for them and they just kind of show up and win somewhat of a you know big prize money SL meaningless event in a way um and take their way with a you know they they work their way into the top five from where their starting position is but uh you know no actual heat because it's the shadow leader board no one even knows it's happening so uh that feels like something that's interesting to me those prices aren't fantastic either so yeah I don't know how to approach this week it's not it's not a week that I love to bet even in the you know alternate markets and you do have to have the shadow leaderboard I think I built I built one in like Excel not Excel but Google Sheets last year so if you bet any matchups that's all going to be based on Gross score yeah and it's so confusing to do that when they start a Different Stroke so I definitely built one where it would just figure it would figure it for me like all right we're we're these guys in relation to each other so I'll be looking at a little of that but yeah for now I'm yeah Tommy lad Henley couple guys in that and then possibly possibly that Rory five to one or better in the without you know basically to finish third ESS I like Xander the Xander without Scotty Market Xander plus 110 without Xander with starting Strokes feels like a pretty good value um I'm G to price that out and see if that is a good value and see if there's a better price on that and see if that is option an option other books but uh Xander without Scotty is is something I can definitely get behind here so uh a little bit more easier to stomach or maybe just at that point I should probably just do Xander you know plus 470 in straight up market and take him the to take the whole thing down so I was just gonna say if you m if you made me bet something in the straight markets it would just be Stander at the price yeah considering how close I think him and him and Scotty are and I know there's a two-stroke difference but getting getting almost five to one on him to just you know essentially play three three shots better than Scotty at a brand new course essentially yeah I I could get I don't hate that yeah probably probably worthwhile look so all right buddy we get a week off um I mean we hashtag no days off but we we get a week off of golf uh but we'll be back with uh the start of the Swing Season Pro cor Artist Formerly Known as the fortnet see if Max can find his game poor Max it's just struggling it's a good it's a good wife's and girlfriend's tournament too like you see a lot of guys like the wives who don't always travel they always make their way to that one oh what if we went to Napa it's it's still a little warm but northern California is not too bad so yeah for me for Ryan for bsb's golf and all of us here if you have any questions again about the rebet deal limited time offer at betsports golf on Twitter DM us we can answer any of your questions help you get it signed up again 10 bucks get you a year that is cheaper than 250 which is the normal price limited time take advantage probably only a couple weeks of that it's hard to tell exactly when that uh will expire for us it's based on some extenda circumstances on the back end so don't ask me before we go Let's do let's do five minutes on the router cup I mean the president cup yeah okay have you have you given any thought to um I mean the US team we're just not that very we're not very good but I think we're gonna we're gonna win obviously but uh you know in terms of who makes this team who doesn't because it's so funny like I feel like we spent so much time talking about the Ryder Cup and who's on that team who's gonna make it in the President's Cup just like they're gonna announce the team soon and it's like we no one really cares because it's the it's the President's Cup so and no it's not it's not as PR presious for sure but so for now Scotty Xander Colin Patrick Klay wendam Clark and seah Fala are your automatic qualifiers this will be played up in Montreal yeah uh this is accuracy course yeah it is if you want to go back and look they did have a Canadian open back here decade ago they did have a President's Cup here um longer ago than that so they have used it I'm sure the courses of of maybe had some changes since that I haven't dug In Too Deep on that but it's yeah I mean their their top end is Matsuyama Kim Sun JM Jason day Adam Scott and Benny on like Although our team isn't you know maybe strong enough to beat the top Europeans in Europe like this should be a sizable favorite even in you know an event maybe they don't care about quite as much there are some people that very much care about the the President's Cup and I think there's a they understand there's a responsibility to come and play good golf in a few weeks with this and like I mean it's it should be lopsided but at the same time once you get past the first six it's not as lopsided and it whether it's close or possible upset probably comes down to those so it'll be interesting to see who the the picks are to fill out the team yeah there are we're in Montreal we have a you know we have Mike we we have a Canadian captain and there are five Canadians in the seven- 15 range on the international team I am absolutely fascinated to see how many Canucks make this team because it's like look you're already dogs just lean into any possible advantage that you could have and just bring all of them they're all right there should be playing that course already like hey guess what you're in go go to Montreal start training yeah I mean like just yeah Conor is seventh uh I think Connors and pendrith are on that te is in yeah yeah Connors is in for sure pendrith is right there Nick Taylor is 12 Adam hadwin is 13 M Hughes is 15 they're all right there on the like the cusp of that team so I don't know I I'm I'm interested to see how many Canadians make the team I think they should absolutely lean into the one advantage that they have it is a International game it's you know we rotate back and forth it is in Canada it's in Montreal bring all the Canucks and let's just see you know what happens there right you have pretty solid starting six I would say with the international team like it's not it's really not bad and then lean into it like it's you're otherwise you're taking you know Cam Davis Min W Le uh bazay hoot you know seiw like again fine but just leaning to the conu side I'm fascinated to see what the Americans do on back end of like what do we got because we have like our next guys are Burns Burns made a massive jump Last Week Big tone Henley keegs made a big jump he's already been named uh Vice Captain for the team that's right I wonder if he'd play I I don't know that he'd play because he he kind of needs to figure out this captaining thing he has a bigger event coming up soon uh Andrew he is he wants to play on that R team he is set on it he basically yeah yeah he I I asked him I asked him flat out the conversation that you and I had when I was there at setfield and I said hey at what point because you're like you're an emotional player that's part of I think what makes you appealing to like fans at times you know we feel your feels when we watch you play and it seems like you're already all in on this process of being a captain it's not like a something you're gonna kind of turn the light on you know next march how does that not impact Keegan on the course between now and then because that seems like it would be really hard to balance and he's like I'm I want to be on that team I want to be playing on that team and if I'm even close I'm gonna be on that team so like he's he's got the mindset already of playing I think he wants to get himself reps as like a how do I have a captain role and a player role because I think if he's even somewhat close I think he's gonna put himself on the team next year I really really really do so I'm not reporting what would make that interesting is if if he's on the President's Cup team as a Vice Captain and plays and just terrible just plays terribly or I wonder if that would change his m i don't yeah a thousand per. that's why I think he this is a good place to get reps of juggling both responsibilities so I think he probably is on the team which is really fascinating but take some young kids right like oxe better be on that damn team I would I don't know who the everyone would be but yeah it should be Burns feno AE and proba we throw Nick Dunlap on the team probably Brian Harmon like at at this point like those are four that I would take I mean Max was good in Rome uh he's so off his game right now um I mean I would love to see like look if we think Nick Dunlap is gonna be a guy do what the Euros did you know bring hoard bring ludig get them some reps like can we out yeah let's get Nick Dunlap some team reps uh I don't know I think that would be interesting instead of taking a Brian Harman or Chris Kirk J JT really down the board yeah right like JT get JT the summer off speed is out of the mix here right he's gonna get surgery let's not bring cam young we've done that like this is an accuracy course I don't know I'm I'm you know what I don't hate Billy hell yeah th% he would love to be a part of this yeah playing Great Golf he yeah say a guy who's actually playing decent golf right now yeah above some of the other names so I don't have a lot of takes on who uh outside of the Canadians who we should take for the Euro team but I'm excited I like these events yeah and it's it's my local time essentially so it's fun because it's no no fun like waking up early and I mean I did bet on Europe up the me too that part was fun like I bet I bet them in like some alt lines as well it was out to two to one waking up that yeah waking up that first morning they're like oh my God they're just shellacking us right now yeah and that happened for two days um I stayed up I don't miss I don't miss that that's the fun about the President's Cup it's our turn to just go to Canada and beat some ass so yeah from the lakes of Minnesota I just want the president's C to mean something because it's going to be in my backyard in uh 2026 and I want to be excited about it when it's here when we get to see uh Madina 3 for the first time in uh like six years so um yeah I'm I'm hoping that it matters and yeah want to see the international team get good we make that a little bit of a a closer thing let's let's have that happen so yeah all right cool I no that was a good good good thought process there we'll get back into it we'll do a President's Cup show when we get to it in about a month so like we said we're off next week enjoy the break enjoy the Tour Championship we'll see you when we see you