📈 Market Rollercoaster: Today’s CPI Inflation Report Shocks Traders

markets and how we are trading it Mark and I don't even know what to bring up first let's bring this up a sea of red this morning and not a little bit of red this is light red which means really really bright red down down down this morning yeah interesting because it was a bit of a a muted start to the session a little bit quiet but uh selling off today and and uh you don't see much strength there all red like you pointed out Marcus yeah and I mean let's take a look at a five minute chart of the &p uh to see of what has happened as we started the session here so first of all uh we see that Futures overnight have been moving lower and this was after the presidential debate began right here the presidential debate began Futures have been moving lower then a little bit of hope this morning and then we have had the CPI data coming out initially we saw that it was a move move lower half a percentage point that the markets moved lower after that they moved up by 7% and I've been sliding ever since yeah and we we knew going into today's session there could be some volatility and movement in reaction to two events uh the debate last night and then also inflation data today yeah let's dissect the inflation data first uh because this is where we look at the calendar uh the economic calendar and we see that inflation came in kind of with what we were expecting exactly and you see here that CPI was in line core CPI came in a tick higher and the year-over-year CPI came in in line with expectations uh that was the lowest year-over-year reading I think going back to March 2021 if I recall but that core CPI number up a tick isn't necessarily what investors in the FED wants but it's not necessarily going to change the fed's direction next week however it seems like at least based on the market reaction that investors were still overly optimistic maybe hoping for a half point cut and I think that this 3% rating just makes a a quarter point a done deal I because I'm very very surprised by the market reaction we talked about it yesterday unless we see a huge uh increase or decrease in CPI I mean the 3% here as we saw on the five minute chart of the mini S&P that is really not what uh makes this Mar these markets slide here and yeah I mean talking about the probabil ities I think this morning we kind of got locked in uh at 83% probability for a quarter percentage Point uh cut versus the half and uh I mean I think we have been in this Camp all along now we have one more important inflation data coming out and this tomorrow that is the PPI but again unless we see any surprises here I believe we're kind of locked in at a quarter point next week exactly and I mean that's what fed funds Futures are pointing to and uh we know that last couple of weeks it's been a bit mixed but you know maybe a half point on the table but we've always thought it was a quarter point and I I think at this point it's it's pretty much a done deal right and I mean we also should look here at the uh at the year-over-year percent change I mean look at this the FED has always been saying we are waiting for more data we are waiting for more data but uh this is what they have been saying as we were kind of moving sideways here because they said okay we want to know does this downtrend that we started continue or does it mean that now we are moving up or inflation is more stubborn this trend has resumed the FED has all the data they need to lower interest rates and we talked about it lowering interest rates by half a percentage point would actually be devastating for the market but as said this morning Market participants uh said say oh we kind of have been eyeballing a half a percentage point I don't know what do you make of this move yeah I I mean maybe because I mean this is the the tricky part of rate Cuts right because many times rate cuts are going into a weaker economy and uh supporting uh you know trying to to help uh the the overall um stability uh of the job market and and um in you know price stability uh but it's in this case it's it's because of the rate increases in inflation and yeah I mean it would be nice to have half Point cuts it would be nice to see the rates come down but the fed using rates as a tool to combat inflation if they do that it's a good sign that they're concerned about the economy it's just it's just messed up yeah all Let's see we see that right now as we started the show we are coming off session low so maybe we're rallying back I mean we'll we'll talk a look or take a look at this in uh 10 minutes again to see what exactly is happening but we should probably also talk about the presidential debate last night between the presidential candidates uh Cala Harris and Donald Trump so what do you think who won did you watch the debate you know I I watch part of it and this is where I think what really matters in this situation we talked about it in our Mastermind meeting what matters is what the Market's telling us right because we know that there are people out there that are extremely passionate about their political beliefs and who they are backing and that's okay but what really matters to us is what are the markets saying how does this impact the market and Marcus you brought up two stocks this morning that I think paint the clear picture of who investors believe won the debate and that is solar stocks and djt yeah I mean trade what you see not what you think have you ever heard us saying this this is what we have on our mugs and uh so let's see uh let's take a look at what we see not what we think so this morning djt Donal Trump's social media company down 133% coming off the session lows but we see a massive slide trained from yesterday to today 13% down on the other hand solar stocks like CS IQ one of the stocks that we own up right now 6% now the Democrats and uh presidential candidate Harris they're probably more favoring uh solar renewable energies and this is what we see this morning uh we see that all solar stocks whether we look at fslr First Solar uh up 7% CSIQ so they are up Donald Trump's Media Company down I mean this tells you what investors are thinking happened last night now I did hear that uh both uh campaigns are planning another presidential debate I haven't heard that it was confirmed just yet but right now this is what the market are thinking but again exact all overshadowed by the CPI data this morning agreed and Taylor [Laughter] Swift a Tor Swift who knows okay so uh let's see we also had another stock making news uh GameStop this morning down 15% after reporting earnings yesterday um lower sales stock offering did you look into this GameStop you know yeah and and so uh their revenue in the last quarter was a drop of 20% um they also announced an at the market stock offering of up to 20 million shares um so just steep decline in sales and investors not not too happy uh with this one yeah we haven't heard anything from roaring kitten in a long time I know I mean last time we heard something from uh him was uh yeah in in May when suddenly he came back almost it seemed from the dead and then there was a few weeks of uh roaring kitten and then I think he moved on to a different stock looks like yeah chewy for a little bit chewy how is chewy doing what is it CH Wy is the ticker symbol okay there well he would be doing better with Chewy than with with GameStop Yep looks like it all right let's take a look at our positions and how these crazy markets are affecting our positions and first of all uh for WTF we have no open trades right now as we went into the session because we had two exits ceg a profitable exit although this was a stock that we did not take and then avgo I mean this just worked out beautifully this morning uh I think we closed it out with a 6.8 6.9% gain nice nice rout I mean this is exactly what we want from WTF trades and why we take them you have that big drop and over sold uh situation the software identifies an entry signal we get in we hold it for two two days days get a nice bounce and exit of course they don't all go that way but that's exactly why we trade the strategy this is what we're looking for yeah and also very interesting because on the first day after we entered because we entered at 13911 we see that it was first moving lower and then basically taking off over the next couple of days well two new signals let's talk about these so two new signals this morning first up bkr Baker Hughes yeah and uh this one uh it has pulled back just a little bit from the original entry with the broad market and that can definitely happen uh but like this one as a possibility I traded it y same here traded it going long at 3331 right now trading slightly below uh overall down today uh 1.8% but this is what we see in the markets right now so going down with the markets and the other one was GM General Motors yeah another one uh like this opportunity uh I mean this is where again looking at that chart you that extreme oversold situation opened up decent but has pulled back a little bit with the broad Market this is another one that I bought as well yeah same here so uh got it at 4469 right now trading what 60 70 cents lower and uh we'll see what happens here with those now moving over to our wheel positions and yeah first up uh I mean CSIQ this morning having a great morning huge jump higher and uh we see that right now trading up 7 and a half% I'll take this nothing yet to do but that's what we have been talking about right uh that it just needs a small impulse and we already saw that yesterday we were up 4% so with today move if you look from the lows that we made yesterday to today's high that's an 18 to 19% move so nothing yet to do but uh definitely on the right trajectory this morning absolutely HL and uh BP on the other hand still moving lower together with crude oil and the overall Market uh hanging in there though because right now we are down uh what 1.3% in the 1.2% in the S&P down 1.4 1.5% for HL nothing to do just yet yeah uh BP flat how uh moving lower and crude oil uh looked like it was going to run today but uh trading right around where it opened yeah so crude oil as we can see also pulling back and uh it looked like we would finally move back into the 70 range but uh not yet yet so the price per barrel crude oil at $66 at lows that we haven't seen or price that we haven't seen since uh May 2023 so uh way more than a year ago a year and what six months almost well math is not an exact science anyhow going back and then we have cols cols are a little bit surprising today I mean at first we knew that cols would actually move lower because they did pay or they do have X dividend today uh so let me just bring it up so Colts uh today a dividend payment of 50 cents and this is where usually not a big deal uh we see that the stock drops by the dividend right now Colts although is dropped a $150 so down right now wow 75% I'm wondering what cost that is that the whole inflation Story I mean because that's not linked to the presidental debate yep so anyhow I got a sign at 2150 so we'll see what happens there if this turns around with the overall Market nothing for me to do just yet Mark kind of hanging in there I mean having pretty good day down only 4% less than the market I'll take this so uh trading slightly below my break even and then UPS UPS this morning or yesterday doing great yesterday uh having a nice day uh for for UPS because yesterday uh where did we go I mean up 3/4 of a perc for UPS that's not bad at all today lower with the overall market so we are right back in our range between 124 and 132 and we're right there in the middle of the range come on UPS come on UPS you can such a great range but this this just needs to move and to the upside to be to be clear here and to maybe we need to to like make some brown Rockwell shirts and and uh get the UPS Brown involved yeah although we can take a look because we were interested in the rescue mission at 125 so it seems that uh we talked about it yesterday that this might actually give us a good opportunity what we see at the 125 level for next week 32% 126 so let's see if we might get a little bit of push lower before we start flying a rescue mission here I'm I like are you putting in some orders no no I I I like uh uh this is one to watch for me definitely all right well let's take take a look at the overall markets again in just a moment to see if you're coming off session lows or if you're still moving lower if everything is still bright red and uh before we do this it is time for our joke of the day our bad dead jokes what do you got for us today Mark how do you tell the difference between a man and a dog I don't know the man is in a three-piece suit the dog just pants okay okay I mean that's as Dad joke as it gets I mean that's just true it has dad joke all over it all right race to the bottom today here's mine what did the triangle say to the circle what you're pointless and again true to Dad joke form it's a race to the bottom today talking about race to the bottom let's go to the S&P and we see that right now we are bouncing back a little bit I mean after this steep steep slide let's just uh see the move I mean from where we opened to this lows 1.7% in the S&P coming off the lows right now same in the NASDAQ NASDAQ right now uh the strongest of the indices hanging in with 7% decline the dowc coming of the low the vixs reversing up 6% still for the day so I mean Mark what do you expect for the remainder of the day you know I I think that we could see a little bit of a reversal I don't think we're going to go positive but again I I I think that this this dip was just a little overdone because CPI data was was good and if there were any debate concerns that would have occurred at the beginning of the trading day right so I I think we could stay here or push a little bit higher yeah I agree probably finishing up negative because now we want to see what does the PPI data bring that we have tomorrow on Deck so looking at the uh uh at the economic calendar tomorrow before markets open we have the PPI data and now after we had a little bit of a surprise in the core CPI want to see what does this data reveal exactly all right well with that said I hope that you found this uh this helpful if you did give us a like we really appreciate it leave a comment after the show is over of who had the worst dad joke today and then uh if you feel that this was information worth sharing there's a share button right underneath and you don't want to miss tomorrow's show so hit subscribe if you haven't subscribed to the channel yet and we'll be back and letting you know where we finish today what about these sectors that we have been looking at that are positive defying the trend today solar will this continue and then also what did the PPI data reveal and with that said for great rest of your day happy trading everybody