Using Redraft ADP to WIN in Dynasty Fantasy Football 2024 | JWB Dynasty Digest 282

Intro | Like & Subscribe (Helps Us TONS!!) what is up everybody Wyatt and Tim here and today we're going to be talking about some discrepancies in adps between redraft bestall and Dynasty and and what to do with those and how to approach those and we're going to give one player for each position to really hammer on that we're noticing these differences on but before we get to those welcome you're listening to jwb Fantasy [Music] Football thanks for listening Tim I Attacking ADP Discrepencies wanted to ask you just kind of a question like when you're looking through rankings and adps and you see this discrepancy between a player between the formats like how do you approach that is there a format that you're more aggressive on attacking that kind of discrepancy in or are you aggressive just in general like just thoughts on that I think best Ball's probably be where I'd be most aggressive especially if I think a player is going down like going too late because I know that a recovery is coming where if I think a player is going two rounds too late I want to get that now because I'll have the differentiated lineup when it comes to closer to the season when it recovers or when it reflects what it's supposed to if I'm looking at a redraft versus Dynasty then I can kind of look at how strong opinions are on a player for the current season and it might be that hey I had this player wrong I can use this player for one more season and they might really help me win a title or hey it's way the the valuation is way too high on this one year maybe I can see about somebody thinking hey I can use them for one year and get get out what I think I should or more or transition to a younger player or a different position like I like to do that with running backs to wide receivers um so I think that's something that's to really look at is who am I selling to or in which area am I buying like if it's a redraft I might say that I think X player is way too undervalued in the third round which dictates then how I how I handle the first two rounds where if it's a wide receiver maybe I go running back in one of them I know I can fill that wide receiver two position with a much better player than what should be there yeah I think that I think that makes some sense you know for me I I and I agree big time on on on bball because I think that's like a place where bball is becoming this Hub of a lot of the sharpest analysts early in the off season as as those drafts are happening and you start to get real solid ADP because there's real money being spent by a lot of this these like you know degenerate fancy football players because they're the only ones drafting in March you know and because of that like they start to think about the future before some other people and like you can start to think like oh I see this young player who's being drafted very highly in baseball but they're lagging behind in Dynasty and that doesn't make a lot of sense so like I think I want to go and buy that player in Dynasty right now because I think that they're by the time people start to catch up I will already have them on my rosters I really think I didn't consider that to be honest with you yeah so like that's where I think like you can find these like some of these biggest discrepancies and I think the place where you can be the most aggressive because I think you're getting really really solid information at a point when you can't get it in other places uh and and that's one of my favorite ways to try and exploit this yeah that's that's very useful I I that was not even a a position I ever even thought about to be honest yeah so you know speaking of let's talk about these players and we're gonna start off with quarterback and a player that I know that we both love uh Kyler Murray on Underdog fantasy he's qb7 on fantasy pros ADP he's qb8 but in Dynasty qb11 which I think is weird because KY Mur is not old right he's not declining uh he looked good coming off the ACL injury we know K Murray to be a high fantasy points quarterback year in and year out why does the dynasty Community not like him as much what's going on here it feels like recency bias on other quarterbacks or romanticizing situations of other quarterbacks such as Anthony Richardson and I think it's fair to be like I'm shooting upside because I always I always preach that but Kyler Murray has the same upside if not better and it's probably safer at the same time so I can't really speak for for 100% why the community is the way that it is but I think a lot of it might just be new toy um recency bias oh he's gonna have all these new weapons he hasn't really played with before but if we even have recency bias going back to last season to end the season he was awesome he was Dynamic that the value should have recovered then because I know even the the offseason prior he was he was going third round in startups in a lot of scenarios and a lot of in a lot of leagues that that should never have been the case yeah yeah I know right like to me in like super Flex Dynasty leagues he's a first- round pick uh I think I think he's absolutely worth that so see him at qb1 I'm like well the problem is that I'm I'm in a bunch of Leagues with people like you and I know I can't just go by Kyler Murray you know but like it makes me it looks at I look at this and say like I gotta go buy by K Murr I mean I like the price on Underdog I like the price on fantasy pros I'm happily paying those prices so why not go get Kyler Murray in Dynasty as well KY Mur and Underdog is is such like a free Square because you don't have to pay fourth or fifth round premiums on top QBs for a QB that's probably going to do the same thing allows you to get them the McBride stack easily if you want to take a z Jones or a Michael Wilson light you can and you have yourself these insulated Stacks that you're not reaching for whatsoever yeah all right for running back we're James Conner actually going to talk about a teammate of Kyler Murray and that's James Connor on Underdog right now he's rb22 on fantasy pros his ADP rb21 in Dynasty from keep trade cut RB 37 and it makes me wonder is James Conor a buy for contenders in Dynasty looking at these adps because the redraft the basball community still have a good amount of faith in him for this year despite them drafting a third round rookie running back that Everyone likes a second running back in the draft and Trey Benson or is this a situation where like we know that the end is coming and maybe it's not worth investing in at RB 37 prices or is that a good price point for you and Dynasty I think it's a great price point for me in Dynasty and actually it's kind of interesting because I would lean towards acquiring him in Dynasty and shooting for upside with Benson in redraft it would all depend on how the rest of my roster was built if I had the running backs already to support but yeah I 37 is free like were are you paying a third round pick like that's that's nothing or maybe two roster clogging wide receivers you can sell potential upside on to someone else and actually get a starter in your lineup and the redraft rank just just uh reinforces the fact that he's not dead he is a usable asset and if you make him one of your Flex options you're you have an rb2 in that position which means you're way in front of a lot of other managers I would even say that the dynasty cost is encouraging for redraft in a way because RB 37 I would say is almost maybe even perhaps high for running back who's Advanced age is known to get injured at least once a year and miss a few games every year and the team already has his air parent like I would expect Dynasty players to say like oh like you can have him I know I'm not interested at all RB 37 to me means like people are still expecting such a good year out of him for this year to keep him there that he's a good Buy in uh yearlong leagues as well it's a great point it's a great Point all right wide Nico Collins receiver we've got Nico Collins coming off this massive blowup year he had last year on Underdog fantasy he's wide receiver 12 and that's in the second round middle of the second round there and fantasy pros ADP wide receiver 13 that's a little bit later as in you know fantasy pros ADP that's leagues that where the wide receivers aren't being drafted quite as aggressively but still this is very high up there and then in Dynasty for keep trade cut you've got him at wide receiver 17 and my thing is here like who's right because he's young so it makes sense in a way for him to be you know wide receiver 12 moving forward in in re Jeff because of what he did last year with CJ strad some potential growth moving forward so like why wouldn't he be higher considering he is still young and Dynasty like what are your thoughts on these well I feel like it actually kind of recovered because I think Nico was even higher up to start the off season and I think there might have been some quelling um of the ranks as we headed into the offseason and as we got deeper but I think the redraft is shooting total upside because the arguments you can make for last season's production not many other wide receivers can hit those Heights that he had but they might not be considering you know the digs or they might just be saying hey digs is dead we're making this bet that Nico is the new one then he's Untouchable he's not competing with Dell for targets Dell Dell does other things that might be the position that they're having when in earlier in the offseason I I moved um one of my Nico shares for a first in a second I thought I was getting Great Value where he might still be worth the first and second but if if he was to totally reported as that wide receiver 17 price and everybody knew it and they operated off of that it might be a lot more difficult to get a first and a second for him but he might be easier to acquire but you might still get that same top 12 wide receiver performance uh opportunity that Redd drafters are thinking that they're getting yeah I'm in I'm in a weird place with Nico personally like I I think I'm doing things a little bit differently for every format in best ball I want to get some exposure because I really do think that he's going to have some really good boom weeks throughout the season I'm excited for those in redraft I kind of just want him to fall a little bit before I take him because I do think there could be like a lot of variability to his his weekly score and maybe I I want a little bit more consistency at the cost I have to pay for him and then Dynasty I've honestly kind of been off him as he's you coming up on Fringe wide receiver one status because there despite him getting this contract and me being excited for nicoo Collins as a player with CJ Stout I think you have to understand what's around him and the fact that tank Dell was really really good as a rookie and I you know I expect him to continue to be really really good I don't think Stefan digs his dust and like there's enough going on here that makes me say like I don't want to go out and pay the prices for this player in Dynasty where I have to send some serious assets for him I'd rather get my exposure in my fantasy portfolio in year-long leagues as opposed to Dynasty I agree I think that's a that's a major way to play for a lot of players too especially when it comes to aging wide receivers that are mid round things like that where you get you're able to get your hands on these guys but you're not committed to them and I think as well with that wide receiver range in Dynasty there's so much shifting that happens from year to year and not many wide receivers are worth more than a first or even equivalent to a first when it comes to it not being like 112 if it's basically a faceless first that doesn't have a draft position to it yet it's really difficult to be like yeah I'm GNA give this up for this player just because you don't know exactly what the outcomes are going to be or what the value of either assets going to be at the end of the season when that first comes to fruition and the pick position is revealed so I think that has something to do with too because maybe we just saw Nico's best season not saying that's the case but just hypothetically then means if anyone pays for him now they've already overpaid they're going to lose value at that position and mo most likely are going to lose performance which means that first gets better yeah that's yeah that's it for me right like it's like if he doesn't improve on this I was probably better off tearing down from him to another player in Dynasty and getting a pick on top for someone who I think is in the relative same tier as him maybe down to T Higgins I don't know and getting a pick on top I think like that that's way I'm approaching him there but you know the the underdog the best ball cost I I dig that the redraft cost I just want him to follow just a little bit to so I can have some more consistency with that pick you know yeah with the lack of movement when it comes to redraft it's just so difficult to want to commit to guys that you're unsure of that early just because there's so many guys you can be sure of and maybe an injury happens but that their performance is in due to an injury not due to a lack of talent lack of situation things like that where with Nico there's so many factors that we we just don't have grips on yet because of the new addition of digs and things of that nature yeah all right last position Ben Sinnott of the day we've got a rookie ontap for tight end that's Ben to not Underdog fantasy tight end 24 but I'll mention he's been fallen and he's been falling fast in recent uh weeks fantasy pros ADP also tight end 24 but again falling in Dynasty on keep trade cut tight end 16 and my question really is like is the dynasty Community too confident at this point that he's going to work out Titan 16 I mean it's it's not that high but it's not nothing and while there was excitement when he first got to Washington that he could be you know this year's Sam leaport something along those lines now obviously those Heights you don't expect for any tight end as a rookie but the fact basically that he could be viable for our off for our fantasy teams at as a rookie there in Washington very athletic highly thought of we're not sure what position he plays and that's where a lot of this falling is coming from because he might be a halfback fullback a position where they're not always getting that many targets might be really useful for the offense but might not always getting all these targets and we know that Zack ZZ is there and while he may be close to nearing being a corpse we know that Cliff kingsberry brought him into Arizona and used him a lot prior to this now Cliff kingsberry there in Washington he brings in z Zs again and Zack hers could be the tight end for the first half of the year does Ben not come in after that and he works out then is he gonna be a traditional tight end and get played like that get some targets where do you see this going yeah it was funky even last year against Washington her had a bunch of targets at start the season and almost no yards because he didn't have any legs left I think the D the dynasty valuation has some ties and a little bit of value lag in terms of change to the teams that drafted him with a second round pick and they are just committed and that's where the that's where the dynasty valuation is not changing I do believe it's too high in Dynasty I think we need there's a lot we need to see from a tight end Prospect of this type this nature that did so many different things in college that's nice but that doesn't equate to fantasy points or touches receptions like you're saying so is he use check on steroids Maybe is that good I don't know like I don't know you Che scored touchdowns but how predictable was that so I think that it's almost a wasted pick right now in Underdog like I understand you can take him late like 18th round fine do whatever you want with your 18th round pick because if if it pays off you can throw it in my face but before that all you're doing is wasting valuable um cap capital on a player that most likely will not pay off for a guy that could have in any on any position could have a role that produces points weekly and is in those lines that is would be in those lineups weekly as well yeah I mean I I I agree a lot there I mean Underdog is a place where hey maybe late in the draft I think it gets to a point where you can start thinking about him again because that is a format that rewards end of season play and Ben not maybe over the second half of the season starts to come on a little bit and we and we get some games right like even Trey McBride before blowing up as a rookie he was actually someone you needed week 17 of his rookie year despite him being bad for like all of it you know so like those things can happen so like certain point yeah he can get to a price where I'm interested redraft you can have him uh just you know I'm just not I'm not rostering a player like that I'll let you ride that roller coaster yeah it's just not gonna happen maybe watch list player you know keep an eye on him definitely not drafting a player like that and in Dynasty you know not really not really touching that price uh I don't really have a lot of bonut in Dynasty just the way it worked out for me I'm definitely not going out to acquire any right now because you know I think the talk about him possibly being like this halfback fullback kind of thing is very real I mean they they talked about it when they drafted him they compared him to Kyle they also compared him to George KD but they also compared him to K usechek and then and that's concerning right because like as you said he could be a tremendous player and it might not matter at all for Fantasy 100% all right Outro | Like & Subscribe | Join Discord & Patreon (Links Below) everybody I hope you can get something out of this for one of the formats that you're playing fantasy football in whether that's bestas ball redraft Dynasty I think that you can look at these players and find a way to attack the market on them in one of these formats I appreciate all of you being here make sure you're liking and subscribing if you haven't already and also go on subscribe to our new channel where we're posting all of our clip videos that you can find this the link to in the description of this video again I appreciate all of you and we'll see you next time