Breakout Picks + Standout Schedules | Fantasy Football 2024 - Ep. 1615

Intro Your drafts are almost here. Make sure you are swaggering out. If you're the champ, go to fantasychamps.com. Get yourself an awesome trophy, an awesome belt. And here's the kicker. If you add one of the bling rings or the brand new black and gold stunner rings that are awesome, they are $60. You put that in a trophy in your cart. Use the code free ring and you're going to get that ring. Well, just like I said, for free, go to fantasychamps.com. You fantasy champions. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Monday episode of the fantasy footballers, Jason Moore is here. Mike, the fantasy hitman present accounted for backwards cap and all. My hat on backwards. Now, see, I have been a little bit curious. I'm Andy Holloway, by the way. You got a haircut. Yes. I know this to be true because you came in and we noticed it. But we only noticed it because of the sides. Yeah. You continue to wear your caps. That's right. Are you just waiting to debut this for the live show? I mean, what is the... Well, an underrated part of a haircut when you have a short hair due. You look better in the hat once the hair is cut too. You do. Yeah. I mean, this is... It's all just part of it, man. Yeah, but you just haven't really, you know, breaking it out on the show. Some say... Are we not showering? Oh, no. I'm fresh out of the shower today. How proud are you, man? It's... I've been told it's too sexy. Oh! I don't doubt it. And I hate that. Too sexy. This is like... you're like a bodybuilder with a shirt on. There's no... that's just stupid. Why do it? You know, you've got... He's doing it for us. Yeah, thank you. I am protecting you guys. I know. I don't know what you're talking about. I'm a hat man. Yeah, I know. You got a nice head of hair under there. Oh, yeah. I don't know anything. We got a breakouts episode on the show today. Very excited. This week we're going to get into breakouts and sleepers, busts, value picks, and mock draft, and some other stuff going on this week. Very excited. Sleeper is presenting the Megala show live in Los Angeles on Saturday. We will be out there at the Palace Theater. We will be giving away tons of autographed gear. We got a grand prize giveaway. We have a Q&A live after the episode of the show. We'll be doing our bold predictions episode live in Los Angeles. So if you want to come and hang out with us, ballerslive.com, your last chance to get over there and do it. The Listener League, all of the winners have been notified and emailed. So this is... I mean, I guess this is only news for those that didn't win. Basically 99% of you, this is bad news. However... Because the winners already know, so they didn't need to be told. No, why did you bring this up? I'm sorry. Here's why to bring it up. Seriously, genuinely, thank you. We had a thousand different submissions, not an exaggeration, and the time, work, energy, effort, talent, character, personality. We just have an amazing audience. We thank you. I am so sorry that we could not have everyone here. Obviously, you can play in the Megalobole and that's coming soon, and the winner will get to play with us next year. So you always have a chance, even if your submissions fail. And the Ultimate Draft Kit available right now, ultimatedraftkit.com. This is getting into the biggest weekend for drafts here very soon. So you're prepping up. I've been talking to people. They are getting ready. They're getting set to dominate on draft day. So pick up that UDK. Now, most of the time listening to this podcast is very beneficial for your fantasy team. No, it's great. However, I have to share a story. Oh, man. You have to actually listen to the show for it to be beneficial. I mean, that's true. That's true. However, this person did. Justin wrote in, and I just couldn't help but share this story. Actually, Jason, why don't you read it? All righty. If you don't mind. Yeah. No, I don't mind. So this story, not a question, just a hilarious story that may lead to my divorce says Justin in Alabama. Driving back from the beach yesterday, I forced my wife to listen to the My Guys episode, mainly because we were having our family draft last night. I have won the league three years in a row. It's the only league that I'm in where there's no money involved, but it's probably the most competitive league because of all the trash talk, which is very similar to our league of record. My wife usually follows ADP and reads weekly waiver wire articles, but doesn't know much beyond what she is told to do by the articles. She decides to read that particular week. Well, she had the sixth pick and she was excited to six overall. Huh? It sounds like it. She was excited to stray away from ADP to take tank big speed with the sixth overall pick and was so excited because that was the only name she remembered from the My Guys episode. She was the butt of the jokes for the next two hours during the draft and has still not talked to me since the draft ended. Oh, no. Tank Bigsby taken in the first round. That is, uh, oh no. Because I believe, Andy, that was your third My Guy if memory serves. Uh, it serves. My Thirst. That's right. I'll do you. Oh my gosh. So not. I mean, Tank Bigsby, sixth overall in at least one draft. Here's what I can tell you. Uh, Justin's wife, name unknown, plenty of people have drafted someone in the first round who gets injured, misses the year and wins the championship. So stick with it. Just assume your first round pick got injured. She might be in trouble. She might. It's an uphill battle. Um, all right. Let's, uh, let's jump in. Ready To Roll Welcome to ready to roll presented by Nissan. All right. We're going to jump into another edition of ready to roll, which has been really fun to kind of prime you up with some strategies to help you heading into the season. And uh, this one fits the moniker ready to roll pretty perfectly because getting off to a great start in fantasy is an actually underrated part of drafting a team. So it's a great tiebreaker between two players. When you are looking at that opening schedule, that can help make all the difference in the truth of the matter is, and we brought this up on tips and tricks shows or, you know, many of you with experience playing fantasy football already know this because your team looks nothing like the day you drafted it. We say the draft sets a great foundation. You don't win your league at the draft because you know, it gives you the ability to make those maneuvers throughout the year. Justin's wife. Justin's wife will need to pay close attention. Um, also, I would, I would pay close attention to this one because this, this segment is probably the only time we're going to say it as succinctly before the season. And this is a good strategy for fantasy football. I, I implore this strategy of looking at the beginning of the season as, as even probably a little bit more than a tiebreaker. I care so much, so much about the first month of the season when I'm drafting and redraft. It makes a huge difference. And so that's what we're going to look at is the opening schedules for several players at all of the positions and players that are set up to succeed to start the year. And it's funny because I got, you know, I got an email the other day and they were basically saying like, are you, you know, what about the end of season schedules as the differentiator between these players? No, no, no, no, no. And that's not a good way to think about it because the turnover at the defensive strength position, you know, it changes so quickly year to year, not just like, is this defense good or bad, but how they play the different positions. Some teams become very weak against tight end, strong against tight end and all of the different positions. And that data, which we put into our in season tools, we really don't even start showing you that data until now, see, I just pivoted from data to data, which do you prefer moving forward? Well, data is usually what I prefer, but he is also from Star Trek. Oh, okay. So you go data? No, I think I do. I use data because data sounds like dad, dad. You know what I mean? Right. Papa. Yeah, I get it. No, let's go data. But they call him data because he had the data. That is true. He was a robot. I think they call him data because he had the data. Oh, yeah. You don't call someone. It's like, oh, you got the milk, I'm going to call you Mike. That doesn't make sense. Malk. All right. Well, that's officially... You said succinctly. My bad. Officially, yes. This is not succinctly. But we don't show you the end of season. Like the end of season schedules are to be decision makers mid season. That's why I traded for Dak Prescott. That's why I traded for David Najoku last year. It wasn't, you know, looking forward from the draft day. It was halfway through the year. Yeah, there's a lot more data official, data midway through the year where we know. Right now we're guessing about the first month of the season. We're going to be right more often than we're wrong, but we will be wrong using last year's data to project it. And so looking at the quarterback position, we're paying attention to more than just how these teams were against the past last year. Although if you use that as a guide to start the season, Jayden Daniels plays against the 29th, 27th and 28th past defenses to start the year and then goes up against Arizona who can't pressure the quarterback. So Jayden Daniels actually has a great start to the season based on last year's data. But we're also looking at over and under. We're looking at projected total points in these games where Kyla Murray to a tongue of Iloa who always gets off to a hot start anyways. I do feel like he has probably been a little too ignored in draft conversations in terms of you don't have to make a lifetime commitment to Tua. But starting the year you've got over and under of 49, 51 and 49 and then a really good matchup against Tennessee. He's a much better draft pick than I had been spinning the off season thinking and this is why. I mean, if you start the season three and over zone three, it makes a pretty big difference. Yeah, as far as your fantasy team, absolutely. And then Jared Goff, we've talked about his schedule. It's so juicy to start the season that he has to be on those lists as well. And he had seven top 12 finishes last year at the running back position. You look at strong opening schedule possibilities. You can look at Josh Jacobs facing some bad run defenses based on last year's data and being the new main man in Green Bay. James Cook, who's Mike's my guy but faces Arizona and Miami and Jacksonville. A really strong opening season schedule. And then Tajé Spears and I'll say obviously slash Tony Pollard because Tennessee's running opponents in terms of how they performed last year, they're not good to start the year. So again, these things change, but it's good to know if you're making that decision between two very similar players. This is not a very acquirable virtue for fantasy players to start the year. It's very hard to be patient if you've been disappointed with bad schedules. Wide receiver, Malik Neighbors. Another my guy. Great start to the year. The reactions I was getting to every Daniel Jones pass in preseason week two were outrageous. It was like- Well, so were the passes. Yeah, the passes were outrageous. He had a good game. I mean, he had a couple big catches. I think he had 54 yards. But then Daniel Jones coming off the ACL had two picks. Godwin, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have strong starts to the season. Yes, they do. And Jameson Williams, if he is a thing, he will have the chance to be a thing because he's got that same juicy schedule as Jared Goff. And then at the tight end position, a lot of positive buzz around Evan Ingram and his camp performance and his performance in joint practices. He has a great opening schedule. I still am. I'm always glancing at Ingram later in drafts. I know sure. I know that it's not been unanimous here, but I am. And then a Hunter Henry who's been one of the quote, unvisible men, I think. Invisible? Invisible. Okay, that's a word. Yeah. Yeah, you definitely said invisible. I thought he was doing an under joke. I wasn't. Oh. Yeah. No, it's just a misspeak that we don't allow here on the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. The dad dad told me that Hunter's been invisible. Okay. Okay. Yep. Perfect. I really don't like how this is turning. You normally have kind of a... Yeah, I've got a stranglehold on the misspeaks, but now I'm just... Ever since I knocked the tooth out, it's really gone sideways. I'm really taking it over. This one, Pat Fryermuth is lined up to have a great start to the season. However, I would bring to mind that Fryermuth's situation with Arthur Smith is not... I'm not encouraged in preseason through two weeks in terms of how many snaps he's got with the first team. We know the tight end rotation in Atlanta was terrifying with Kyle Pitzl. I'm actually pumping my own brakes on Pat Fryermuth personally, but... Good thing you're in a student driver car and I'm in the other seat and I'm hitting the gas, baby. The Muth gonna be loose. You don't know which quarterbacks play in which week. They both have looked horrible all offseason and now you have different tight ends playing and the Muth hasn't been loose in years. So I'm sorry, Jay. I'm out. Season long, that's perfectly fine because Hunter Henry, who if... You might remember that Hunter Henry also had a really strong start to last year. Obviously different team, different quarterback, but like Hunter's opening schedule. I'm searching for Hunter and I can't find it. Yeah, you're not gonna... The opening schedule for the Patriots, like fantasy points against... He was the number one? Yeah. And the number two tight end for the first two weeks last year. Sounds about right. So he's... If you... Maybe you're in a larger league. You're in a 14 or 16 team league and getting a tight end, it just... It has not worked out. You're gonna be streaming the position. I would check out some of these guys with the better opening schedule. Last year, it was... When we were talking about these types of players, it was Jake Ferguson and Sam LaPorta. Two guys who were just not really drafted if they were, it was in the late double digit rounds, but they both had such juicy opening schedules. Now, that's not me saying... We did it. We called Sam LaPorta. It was saying, these are two players that we identified that could start out pretty hot. And I would say when you're looking at different positions and schedules, you'll hear this all throughout the season. The tight end is the position to me of all of them the most where I care about who is good or bad at... Like the teams that are really bad against tight end are just... They've got a hole in their defense that they don't know how to fix. And week after week after week, even bad tight ends, they just can't guard them. Sometimes it's a choice too. Right, right. I'd rather be beaten by Hunter Henry than, well, I guess a bad example. I have wide receivers. A Jalen Polk or somebody. Yeah, exactly. So it is like you said. And automatically that just might be how you funnel your defense, but I really do like targeting tight ends that are going up against really bad... Like the top five or the bottom five defenses against tight end. Obviously, this is last year's data we're looking at mixed with some of the new year, but it should still work out with these three guys. All right, something to keep in mind for you that was ready to roll presented by Nissan. Find your path in the 2024 Nissan Pathfinder Rock Creek designed to be aggressive all the way up to the front grill. It's like my grill. Learn more at NissanUSA.com. Intelligent four-wheel drive cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions. Always monitor traffic and weather conditions. NFL News News and notes from around the league presented by USAA Insurance. Well, we've got a lot to get to today. It's a breakout show. I did want to kind of ask you your favorite players of the weekend. We got another week of preseason football. And the two names for me, Bonix's performance in Denver. It's looking like Bonix. I mean, it's looking like Collegiate Bonix with the efficiency and the level of the completion percentage. So I was really impressed. I think Bonix was my number one. And then I'm still going to throw Roma Dunes Day out there. I am trying to go to bat for him lately. I am a believer in Roma Dunes Day and essentially the broken play in Chicago. Pre-season Week 2 Standouts I think that what we've seen thus far with the offense is that Caleb is willing to move around, extend the play. He's made some outrageous throws. He's made some mistakes, all of that stuff. But as plays break down, it seems like the eyes, the homing missile, it's going to Roma Dunes Day on some of these plays. And they had a big connection this last weekend. And just looking at probabilities with Keenan Allen, he's 32 years old. There's only been a handful of players at that age and older that really put up kind of prolific seasons when it comes to total receptions. We did see Thiel into it last year. Larry Fitzgerald had done it. Gwendolyn did it when you're 32 plus and you get over 100 receptions. But I just want to leave the door ajar there for the ninth overall pick with incredible athleticism, big body, competitive catch guy. I think that there's a chance that we're talking more about Roma Dunes Day than we think at some point this year. And we'll leave it there. I don't hate to take at all. I believe in Rome, the player as well. I hate that three wide receivers for the Chicago Bears were being drafted inside the, what is it, the top 36, if I'm remembering that number right, Kyle, of just knowing 100% that not all three of those guys can pay off. That's been everything about the argument against Rome. And it was, you know, betting on Keenan Allen, who has been, it was still great last year. He was still an elite player. So that's just the question. If Keenan Allen is the one who falls apart this year, yeah, Rome will be fine. It's just a matter of all three will not, all three will not pay off that ADP. Yeah, I, I, I think he's talented for dynasty. I love Roma Dunes Day. What he showed this preseason is like, he's legit. He's very good. I still for redraft do not believe like Rome wasn't built in the day. It's not going to be built in his first Boston. Give me a busted. I didn't even stop with it. I'm with the bus. Okay. Well, I'm a big fan of Rome, the city, uh, the mics of fan of Rome, the player. So the thing is, is he is going to be right now to start the season. We just got finished talking about how important starting the season is. He projects to be the third target, you know, for a rookie quarterback. And I wanted to bring up Caleb Williams as my takeaway from this preseason because he had a couple of plays. If you're just looking at, you know, if you're scrolling Twitter and you're looking at some of these plays, the deep shot to Rome, a dunes day down the sideline, the one that was to a dunes day in the corner of the end zone, which should have been a touchdown, except a dunes day was stepping on the out of bounds line. Um, you'd be like, holy moly, this guy is so special. It's everything he was drafted to be. If you watch the whole preseason game, you go, Oh, he did. He did not. It was just three and out, three and out, three and out, three and out for, you know, the first almost right up until halftime when he had that final drive that worked. And so I think you're going to have speed bumps in the road. And it's what Mike talked about right now. Rome is the 33rd drafted wide receiver on sleeper. I mean, he's ahead of Jaden Reed, ahead of Xavier worthy. It was like another rookie who maybe he's the third best quarterback, but he's playing for Patrick Mahomes or, or Calvin Ridley. Like are you taking Roman Dunes day ahead of Calvin Ridley? Cause he's going way ahead. No, my, my argument for Rome is, is more that the drafting of talented rookie wide receivers late in drafts as Flyers has paid off for me in years past. But he's not late. Not late enough for your taste, which is fine. But I think in some leagues he will be late. And I also, you know, you, you do want the guy that if he's out, if he starts going out there and two wide receiver sets all the time, he'll make an impact. If one of those two guys goes down, he'll make an impact. So at least keep your eyes on him. It's not a prescription for reaching. Yeah. I would, I would agree. When you bet on talent, the wild world of the NFL happens, injuries happen and you go, well, the reason that guy works is because of injury. Kenan's never been hurt before though, right? But it's not just like, Oh, an injury ahead of him made him good. It was, he's got to have both. You got to have talent and opportunity. I would probably be even more hesitant if there was a history between Caleb and Kenan as well. The fact that Kenan is coming over from another franchise and they haven't played together helps me a little bit too in terms of Caleb picking his favorites, but we'll see what happens there. Mike, you have a, you've got another player on the Broncos. Sure. Yeah. This is, and look, it's, there's three question marks, but it is Tim Patrick, fireball Jones back from the grave, missing multiple seasons in a row. And he's fresh, Mike. The legs are rested, very, very rested in rehab. And it, they're like, there's a chance there is a chance that Tim Patrick just ends up being the best wide receiver on the Denver Broncos this year. Does that mean good things for fantasy football? I don't know. But I just, it, I thought it was worth highlighting where, where we're trying to figure out these, these wide receiver situations. And the other one is I have to bring it up yet again and I hate it. Do you want the boo? What do you want with that? Oh yeah. Can I get some booze? Say it. Yeah. Taste some Hill. That's a ground swell of booze. Taste some Hill. The, the New Orleans Saints are infatuated with taste some Hill, not so much winning, winning football. They like gadget guys, but they, they love taste some Hill. There was a, a report, I think even before the game this past weekend of, of a beat reporter saying, you know, hypothetically, like, if you tell me that Taysum is the second leading rusher for the New Orleans Saints, I will not be surprised at all. He's going to get goal on work. He's lining up literally all over the field because they're using them as a true gadget player. They don't have anybody else. They don't. But it's, which would that an argument for another day, it is simply, if you're playing on a platform or taste some Hill is tight end eligible. This is not a, a call for the platforms where he's quarterback only. If you can put him in as a tight end, it's going to be more of the same of huge, huge spike weeks. A lot of weeks where it's, there's just absolute nothingness, but he will have spike weeks. Like he'll have multiple top five weeks. All right. Other news. The Raiders have named Gardner, Minshew as their starting quarterback for week one. Let's go. Wow. That was a fist bump. That was an aggressive fist bump. Yes. Did you hear, you'd, you didn't hear. I didn't hear what? Was Gardner, Minshew? No, I heard that. I heard that. Oh, that was a fist bump. Sometimes it's about the other options though. You really hate, hate, no, Connell that much. Yeah. I think Aiden O'Connell's a better player. I think Aiden O'Connell stinks and he'll never be good. Well, I think they're both kind of stinking, but, um, Gardner, Minshew gave us Michael Pittman last year. Yes. Yes. That is the best argument. And, um, yes. The fist bump is merely for those who are drafting and believing in Devonte Adams. I think this is a much better situation. Brock Bowers. Brock, yeah. Everyone, anyone who catches a pass from the quarterback plays for the Raiders. I think this is a much better situation. Well, and we'll really, I mean, what is the opening four weeks for the Raiders? Can you, I mean, what does that look like? Because if you have a, if you have a quarterback situation where a change can happen. So we got Chargers. So at Chargers, at Baltimore, Carolina, Cleveland. Yeah. This is change. This will change. This will change. It neither looked good in the preseason. Um, the accuracy for Gardner was, was awful. Minshew is a gamer guys. But what I, the only thing that I'll say is that like Adams wants AOC. So Adams is a loud man. So maybe there's sacrificial baby in Minshew in those games. They could be, or the Raiders just want to do everything they can to make Devonta Adams mad. If you're a name, they are knocking it out of the park. All right. Yeah. So well, you know, Minshew for now and then Jalen Warren missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. This one's big. He is still in question for week one. He could be back out there. I, I made some very small tweaks to the distribution of work just based on him being potentially limited in week one, but you know, it's unfortunate the injury. And then we got word that Deandre Hopkins with the knee sprain should be back soon. The team is hopeful to have him for week one in Tennessee. Okay. Good for Will Levis to have Deandre Hopkins back out there. Getting Lord knows we don't want to pass the ball to Kyle Phillips and Traylon Berks. I don't think you're allowed to pass it to Traylon. Getting back real quick to Jalen Warren. I, I saw, I'm sorry, I don't have the, Kyle, maybe you could look this up. Their center got injured, right? So it wasn't just Jalen Warren, but I believe the Steelers. Their starting center did, although they spent, I believe a first rounder on a, or a high draft pick on a center. Yeah. Okay. So it's just unfortunate injuries to start, start the season. Sounds like they need to dump it over the off the line to Pat Fryarmi with Andy. He won't be on the field though. So who are they going to throw it to when he's off the field? MVS who left the second preseason game with a neck injury X-rays negative. I don't, I'm not, I don't want to say I don't care about his injury. I was for fantasy. It does not factor into my thinking about fantasy football, his injury. Let's put it that way. Did you guys see the news on Brandon Iuk? Me neither. Come on. Oh, I see what you did. This is taking too long. Just sign something. Anything. Just, just sign some back. I don't care. The credit card application. Just come on. All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USA Insurance. We're going to take a break and jump into some breakouts. We did get some Brandon Iuk news status quo. Same situation. That is the news. That is the news. Yeah. The thing that is forgotten in all of the, the hullabaloo is the 49ers control the contract of Brandon Iuk for this year. He can literally just get to the beginning of the season. Just play. And play through the contract. Like that has been one of the outcomes. This is just punks of Tony Phil coming out like any news? Nah, no shadow. Go back. Matthew Stafford is back in Pans, back at practice. So that's, that's wonderful news because I love drafting Rams and I don't want them if Stafford's not there. No kidding. I'm glad to see the little conversation between Sean McVeigh and Kyle Shanahan about the Rams. I did. Yeah. The Rams trading for staff. Yes. And how like Shanahan and the 49ers were interested, but they thought they had like another day. Uh-huh. I mean, it sounded so fantasy football to me. It was great. But it also like the thing that was revealing to me was when Shanahan specifically said, he's like, yeah, you know, you like a guy's good until you actually like dig in and spend two weeks deep diving his tape. And you're like, oh my gosh, this guy's really good. That good. Talking about Stafford. Loved. Like this was totally McVeigh poking the bear because he was like, hey Kyle, how'd you, how'd you feel about when we traded for Stafford? And then Shanahan talking about it. And then Shanahan getting a text like late at night. That's like, uh, if you want Stafford, you better call him like right now. And he's like, oh, based on my information, I got some time. And then signed. Yeah. That's wild. It's funny. It's kind of how like when we make trades, Jason, sometimes I'm like, who got tanked out? How'd you feel about that trade I made? Yeah. All right. Breakouts You can see all of our consensus breakout picks in the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com. Today we're talking some individual breakout picks, players that could become that fantasy darling or superstar or game changer that we individually have some strong convictions about. We wanted to share them with you. And I'm going to let one of you guys go first. So it looks like Mike is getting the call. Brian Thomas Jr. I will jump in and we had the conversation earlier about rookies are a good bet for fantasy football. This year is a little wacky because you have, you have Marvin Harrison, Malik neighbors and Roma dunes, they all being drafted way higher than rookies normally are. But Brian Thomas, Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars is being drafted exactly where we want him to be drafted, which is on sleeper as the wide receiver, 46 in the middle of the ninth round. Other platforms he's going even later. It took a while for things to start percolating for Brian Thomas over the off season. I mean, well, he was a really high draft pick. 23rd overall, he was the fourth wide receiver. He's coming out of LSU with Malik neighbors. So like, you know, these two, they're, they're buds and like talking each other up as the noise had been building here for Brian Thomas, Jr. Malik was jumped on social media. He's like, yeah, I'm not surprised at all. And it's just, let's all remember where we, how we got to where we are. 17 receiving touchdowns last year. That's the most at a power five school since Devontae Smith in 2020. Like he was, he killed at the go route. I loved, you know, just taking potshots at him. Cause when I was watching him, I saw a lot of basket catching. So I was calling him basket catch Brian, which was, it was not taking away. I didn't like that. It was not taking away from the player. It was just like, Hey, here's something that you could absolutely improve on. But it's, this is all about ADP and the situation of Trevor Lawrence may not be, you know, the, the, the golden God that he was promised to be for the NFL and for fancy football, but he's still fine. Like he's still a quarterback that I would like my rookie wide receivers playing for. There's a bunch of really crappy situations out there. And like the law gave Davis got the money. We'll see if he actually gets the production, but the drumbeat of Brian Thomas from nothing, nothing, until just a real steady ramp up of he, you know, the, he looks on guard. Incredible. All of this and just comparing him to the other rookie shots that I could take. Like Lama Conkey, great player. Didn't have the draft capital that Brian Thomas had. Doesn't have the offensive situation that Brian Thomas has. And they're going kind of around the rights, the same spot. So to me, Brian Thomas here as he's like a, a go-to rookie that I think you should be trying to get in more drafts than not. This is a great comparison to Rome, a dunes. They're both great players. Like even if you think of dunes, it's better. You talked about earlier, you like taking a shot at talented first round rookie wide receivers late in your draft. A dunes is almost all of that, except he's not late in your draft. Brian Thomas Jr. is all of that. He's, he's a ninth round pick on average. And that is, that's great. Yeah. I was a huge fan of the, of the collegiate film for Brian Thomas. And I was really like, we got a, a white board in our main office where the three of us work and we jot down early my guy thoughts and Brian Thomas was on the board for a long time, but I was disappointed by the camp buzz. And it was nice to finally see some stuff coming to light. The opportunities right in front of them. Yeah. And 29 rookie wide receivers have been drafted as top 50 guys. 60% of them have exceeded their ADP expectation being the, the ADP expectation is where you're drafted. Do you fulfill that? Do you get the points that that player normally scores? And I mean, guys, LSU has been wide receiver you here, giving us, you know, just true elite, elite players, Malik neighbors. And also TMJ. I was going to bring it up. Terrence Marshall. That was always my fear. First round LSU wide receivers. Okay. Thank you. All right. Their hit rate is currently very good. Yeah. No, no question. Jason, time to shine some light. Rashee Rice All right. I'm going to talk about a player going only one round ahead of the rookie, you know, dart throw of Brian Thomas Jr. This was a rookie last year who actually kind of almost broke out. And unfortunately he's going to miss the first half of the season. I'm talking about Rushy Rice, wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs. Oh wait, it looks like he's not going to miss the first half of the season. Season's about to kick off. We have no news of a, of an impending suspension. The NFL often lets legal proceedings, you know, go out, carry all the way through before those things happen. He is so low in ADP it would not have happened this way if he didn't spend the entire off season with the assumption that he is, you know, going to miss a big chunk. Probably not going to be there to start the season. So no one drafted him. They became a late round pick because you just didn't know. Well now drafts are right around the corner. People are doing drafts this week, next week. And he's sitting there in the eighth round on sleeper. Rushy Rice, if you look at last year, rookie season, he came along slowly. The first part of the season, the first nine weeks, they had their bi-week in Week 10. The first nine weeks, he was involved. He was a package player. He was out there a little bit, targeted on 13% of his routes. Once the bi-week hit, he became a full-time player for this offense, targeted on 25% of his routes. He overtook Kelsey. Remember how Kelsey had this great first half of the season? And kind of a really lousy second half of the season? Well, it was inverted with Rushy Rice. Rushy Rice became the number one target for Patrick Mahomes in the offense. How good was he from Week 12 on? He was the wide receiver nine in points per game, 14.9 already last year. The average 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions and 86 receiving yards. If you extrapolate that out, just in case you don't realize how good those numbers are, that would be a 122 reception season. That's what he did as the second half of the year as a rookie once he was a full-time player. And now you just look at all the camp reports. He is the one. I'm excited for Xavier Worthy. I'm really, really hot and bothered for Patrick Mahomes. I think he's going to be the number one quarterback in six-point leagues this year. The offense should score a lot more. I think he's got more weapons. But Rushy Rice is really good. His yards after catch was unbelievable. 70% of his receiving yards came after the catch. They manufacture him good touches. He's on the field. He is the number one target, I think, in this offense. I think it's not inconceivable to say this season he will out-target Travis Kelsey. That's within the very clear path of believability. And he's going in the eighth round. So if that happens, and he's the number one target for Patrick Mahomes, going into his sophomore year in the eighth round, that's a breakout to me. The last report we had on the legal situation, because it's still going to hang as a not something that should drive him this far down in ADP, but it's going to hang as a risk factor that you're going to have there. The last report that we had was that the NFL had not yet met with the Chiefs or Rice, which means it's very unlikely that the disciplinary case will be concluded at least by the Thursday night football kickoff game. And they don't normally put players on the, what is it, the commissioner's exempt list unless those have generally been reserved towards domestic violence situations. So right now the legal matter is kind of just TBD and it was an aggravated assault and collision causing bodily injury charge. And then he had the assault of a photographer, but the photographer did not. I think that one went away, right? He did not press charges. So that one is not, I mean, that can always be, again, the leak is still rule on that? Yeah, because it's the personal conduct policy. So just to give you, because like we have not talked about that situation in so long, we're just kind of sitting here in ambiguity. That ambiguity is leading towards him playing right now. And you know, whether that could mean a midseason problem, I just don't know. Yeah. I mean, look at, look at whatever it was yesterday, the day before their, their preseason game. He had four receptions in short work with Mahomes. Yeah. Everything about Rice has only been, though the concern has only been for the legal situation and possibly missing games for me. So yeah, there's no other reason that you would even worry about his involvement. It's wild. Like that he has gone to the eighth and it hasn't really trickled up. He felt like a player that that made sense at the beginning of, you know, it would, you know, best ball drafts are happening, these types of things. But then as you're getting closer to the season, I would have thought he would have slid up here into like the sixth, maybe even the fifth round of it becomes a, it becomes worth the risk for your team that, that this player is, he's going to be great. I mean, he is a, he is a top 20 type of wide receiver to me, but just has this risk of maybe he's going to miss game. So if you can get him still, even in the seventh round, I mean, that's an unbelievable steal. All right. Speaking of the seventh round, my breakout pick is Brock Bowers, rookie tight end of the Las Vegas Raiders. Brock Bowers He is going in the late seventh round as of right now. Are you a men's shoe guy or an O'Connell guy? I believe that O'Connell affords us more upside if he matures and is able to do what he does well. But men's shoe is more stable from a week to week basis. Bowers is an 11th round pick on Yahoo right now. And Brock Bowers is, again, we want to reiterate how, I still think it's undersold how elite he was in college. This is the best college tight end we've ever seen. He led Georgia powerhouse in receiving for three years. He had the most receptions by a freshman, not of tight ends, but, you know, all of them, like AJ Green. He tied AJ Green. He had 13 touchdowns as a freshman. This was a team that had Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell and George Pickens and Jermaine Burton and James Cook and Ximir White. And these are all players on these rosters where it was Brock Bowers. So also the only two-time Mackey award winner ever. So I think they're going to use him all over the field all of the time. You don't draft a player with the draft capital they did with Brock Bowers. I know the team, like, and not use him. And this team looked at it as an absolute steal. We were surprised he went to the Raiders. That surprise was from the Raiders as well when he dropped that far. It was a best player available. We don't need a tight end desperately. But it was, he's here. We've got to take him. He was only in line 39% of the time in 2023. This is a slot-wide receiver. Is a dude that can dominate in the screen game. He is an athlete where the ball, if you get it to him, you're going to have a great deal of success. So far in the preseason, at least in week one, nine out of 14 snaps. There were two tight ends on the field. He had 11 snaps lined up all over the field, five in line, three in the backfield, two out wide, one in the slot. I just think that Brock Bowers, this is a cream rises to the top. And at tight end, the nice thing is that a small amount of great plays is enough to make you better than most tight ends in the game. And you don't want to put your bet on, okay, he has to score 12 touchdowns to be successful. He has to be Kyle Rudolph around the goal line. The athleticism of Brock Bowers to me and why he is enticing is because two plays can be enough at the tight end position. George Kittle-esque. Absolutely. Kittle's a great example. Mark Andrews, we saw him very early on making big high yards per catch plays. Bowers, all reports have been, he's an uncomfortable player. He's a mismatch on everybody that tries to line up on him. You don't get DBs on your tight end very often. If they are, you got them, they're tiny and he maneuvers them and a linebacker is too slow. So I just think Brock Bowers breaks the game and his draft capital would have been a lot different if the situation was a lot more attractive. So I am a staunch opponent of drafting rookie tight ends. I'll take my L on Sam LaPorta, but that wasn't the one you drafted last year anyways. That was the one more often you were picking up off of waivers. You drafted Dalton Kakey too high. When I look at Brock Bowers, I agree with everything Andy just said about the actual talent and the ability, the prospect himself and the concept that he could end up having a special season. Could end up having a special season to me is totally fine if I'm on Yahoo and I'm in the 11th round. He can be my tight end. I don't usually draft two tight ends. I don't want to do that. He's the exception. But like if I'm looking at all these platforms where he's in the 7th, I mean there's just, you know, he's going ahead of just, I mean, some of the guys we just talked about that, you know, that we have his breakout potential candidates really hard for me to take him there. So I think he's platform specific for me. I would love to, I would love him to break out. It's just tough when you go, okay, the Aiden O'Connell, Gardner, Menchew, you know he can't be the number one target. That's impossible with the Vonte Adams there. So now he's the number two though. He could. Jacoby Myers is there. He's still one of two tight ends. He's sharing a little bit of tight end duty, kind of the Dawson Knox issue for Dalton Kakey last year. So it's just too costly in the 7th for me. Andy, where are you at with Brock Bowers? He's a breakout pick for me. Okay. Specifically talking about, you're drafting on the sleeper platform because in ADP he will be showing. So right now in a half, you know, he's going at the back of the 7th, then David Najoku and Jake Ferguson are just a couple picks after him. Are you, your level of confidence, is it taking Brock Bowers before those guys? You're good going into the season with just him. I'm definitely good going into the season with just Brock Bowers as my tight end, just starting him and seeing what I've got. I feel like the bigger comparison here is, you know, Kyle Pitts, two to four rounds higher than Brock Bowers. When you talk about athleticism and upside in an offense, you know, Ferguson, I still think is going to be somewhat touchdown dependent. Yeah, he will. And if you are out on Voldemort, then this is your pivot option. Like I'm looking at ADP comparison here at average position overall on our ADP comparison chart is Najoku 806 Bowers 905. So you know, ninth round Brock Bowers with a bunch of cap tight ends behind him in the draft. It might be your last shot at taking somebody that has kind of explosive weak winning potential, not just like four or five points of game potential. But I know you guys like Ferguson a lot. That's just a belief in the offense and, you know, they don't have a lot of weapons. I don't have any problem with that if you want to wait on him. So we'll take a break. We'll jump into some mailbag. Let me ask a question though before we jump into a mailbag. Jason. Yeah. You know, you're very vocal about your tight end rookie situation. You know, I don't do it. Even though Sam LaPorta was the number one tight end last year as a rookie. So in the last one years. In the last one year, a rookie led the NFL. Yeah. The number one rookie last year was a bad pick. Anyways, and don't get going. What's your question? My question is, is that is this something that is now kind of like tattooed on your skin or is this something where Brock Bowers comes out and gives you a top five performance this year that this narrative is going to become different? No, it's certainly something that would change. This is, you know, if you look back at how we drafted 10 years ago versus how we draft five years ago versus how we draft now, things change. The NFL changes and we adapt. We always say on the show, you want to stay water. You've got to be able to change. You don't want to just, you know, have everything in stone. I used to never be willing to draft undersized wide receivers. They didn't work for fantasy. Now tank Dells a my guy because the NFL has, the NFL has changed. So thankfully, you know, I prefer when it's easy and you don't have to adapt to change. And thankfully that will be what happens this year. Okay. Into the mailbag we go. Mailbag Mailbag. Yeah, very nice. One in Toronto. Oh, sure. Started three wide receivers, full PPR. Davante Adams or Derrick Henry Devonte Adams or Derek Henry. Oh, so it's a three wide full PPR. I think you go Adams there then. Has your opinion of Adams because of Gardner starting Mike at like, is there any adjustment to your rankings? I haven't moved him. But I believe it will be more consistent than if it were O'Connell. Adams is a really interesting discussion in my opinion in general because we've had a lot of conversations at soft season around where Justin Jefferson belongs in drafts because of confidence in his quarterback and the team and that situation. If you pull NFL players and one of the reasons we rest on Jefferson being fine is he's the best in the game. If you pull the NFL, the answer is Devonte Adams. That is the answer from NFL players by majority is that Devonte Adams is the best wide receiver in football. And so we look at it through a slightly different lens. We look at longevity and the age and dynasty and all of that stuff. But I think the NFL still looks at Devonte Adams as a top. If he's not one, he's two in the eyes of most players. So when you look at that argument of, well, talent rises and it works out. And I mean, like for him to do what he did last year with how catastrophic the team was, it is it's risky with the age and age cliff. But at the same time, I wonder if some of the same upside exists in believing in the talent. Yeah, it does. The talent is there. I think we have the data, right? The top 100 players, whatever. Tyreek was number one. So I don't know where Devonte Adams went in, but he's awesome. And I've talked down Devonte Adams quite a bit from where he's being drafted just because you're older. You've got a quarterback issue, even though he was the wide receiver 11 last year was very inconsistent. But that doesn't mean Devonte Adams is a bad pick. Like my answer to this question, if I'm playing a three wide receiver full PPR, you're on Adam's side. I'm on the Devonte Adams side. And you know, I like there, Kenry. This isn't me saying, you know, Adams is worthless. This is just me worried about when he's going at that like one, two turn area over some of these younger up and coming wide receivers. I just don't want to either one of these players, Adams or Henry could be at their end. And we just don't know. I don't want to hold the bag with those compared to younger guys. All right. Gio and Baltimore wants to know one point per reception keeper league, Breeze Hall in Breece Hall for a 4th or Kyren Williams for a 15th? exchange for their fourth round pick or Kyron in exchange for the 15th round pick. That's fun. I'm Kyron. That's too big a gap for me. Yeah. Fourth rounders are still really. Fourth rounders right now. If I were to read you the fourth round by ADP, you would be giving up a digs, Jacobs, Devonte Smith, Lamar Jackson, Malik neighbors, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Rashad White, Trey McBride. That would be, it's hard to attach one of those names with Kyron and not accept that trade for Breeze. Yeah. If you were to trade Breeze Hall for James Cook and Kyron, I would do that. There's a world where Kyron. I'm not sure you do that with Malik neighbors and. I mean, it depends on obviously who it is, but there are fourth rounders there that are worth it. It's a, it's a worthy. I mean, there is Kyron outscored Breeze Hall last year on a points per game basis. So if they're both healthy this year, he could outscore Breeze Hall this season. Yeah. The, the drum beat on Braylon Allen is still very, very. Yeah. My dude. Yeah. I mean, he is, he's profiling as a, as a bona fide. As a tank. Back up running back. That should be drafted, especially by Breeze managers with, you know, obviously Breeze would have to go down for this to be a, to factor in. Like I have zero concern about Breeze's workload, but it's nice to know the hierarchy. What's crazy is that every single year there are multiple rookie running backs that are impactful for fantasy football, usually multiple two plus that end up in the top 12. And this year there's like no, no one that you're taking a shot on because they're all backups or John and the Brooks is dealing with, you know, he's not even going to start season. So it's like, it's the weirdest rookie running back year I can remember. There's literally no one that you're drafting right now. Everyone is a waiver wire pickup guy when an injury ahead of him happens. Yeah. That is, it's tough. I mean, and maybe this will be one of the years where that's just not true also. You know what I mean? Like I know averages are averages, but, but it's always based on the real players and the real opportunities. But injuries, I mean injuries change everything. Yeah. It'll happen. It'll be Breyland Allen in week two. If you know what I mean? If, if Breeze goes down, it's, it's the confidence you'd have in Breyland Allen in New York in that offense would be great. That would be a full fab dump. Yes, it would. All right. On Tuesday, we're covering sleepers on Wednesday, busts and values on Thursday. We're debuting our take swap segment. See how that goes. And then Friday, a mock draft and Saturday, the Megala show, which if you're wanting to be there, it's ballerslive.com presented by sleeper. Come and see us in Los Angeles right before the NFL season. And if you're not able to be there, it will be the Monday episode of the show. You'll be able to view it on YouTube and get that content that way. So that is going to do it for today's episode of the podcast. Shout out to the doosers over there. We kind of left them alone today. Looks like the Falcon is, oh, he's here. Yeah. Must not eat in the day. See ya. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theFFballers.