Busts & Value Picks + Caleb Saves Chicago? | Fantasy Football 2024 - Ep. 1617

Intro It's fantasy draft season, which means you need the Ultimate Draft Kit to dominate your draft, premium staff projections, tier-based rankings, 100-plus player profile videos, and a sweet cheat sheet creator that you can dive in, mark all of your players, print it out, or use it on the app. Lots more where that came from. Check it all out at UltimateDraftKit.com. The fantasy footballers podcast, Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, Al Borland and Papa Josh, they're over there in Deuces Alley. It's busy season. Yes, it is. We have a busts and values episode of the podcast today. We've got Hungry for More. We've got news to talk about. We've got announcements. I almost missed the welcome in. I'm going to be honest. For real? Yeah, I was just looking through the show, Doc, knowing how much we've got to cover, and all of a sudden that beat hit. And I was like, welcome in. It was really. No, it was a true reaction. It was a startle. It was not a welcome. It really was. I know we've all got drafts going on, which have been very, very fun. We're through two weeks of the preseason. I watched the third episode of Hard Knocks yesterday. Uh-huh. How was it? I've got thoughts. Yeah, how big was Keenan? Keenan is lost all the way. He looks fine. It was a temporary. Tell me your secrets, Keenan. Keenan is in good shape. He was rather dominant. The two thoughts that I have is one, just general commentary. It's opinion. It's subjective. I don't think they need better stories. I do. I think they need better stories on. They're phoning it in? Not on purpose. I mean, some people, I think, maybe were better at finding them in years past. So, I mean, the danger of reality television. I mean, sometimes they're there and sometimes they're not. Right. Yeah, no, that's true. And you have these teams, I mean, there's more and more and more media training for all these players. You've got to get rid of that nonsense. Like protect yourself, protect the brand, all of these types of things compared to. Say nothing controversial. Yes, but compared to when Hard Knocks, I mean, the show's been on, I don't even know how long, for a very long time. So, it's a different type of, these are players who grew up watching Hard Knocks. And they're like, you're not getting me like that. That's fair. That's fair. I mean, I think the other takeaway is, and again, complete just my opinion, based on three episodes of kind of candid access to Caleb Williams and the team. There's a lot of people going out there and making a big deal about the Bears. They're kind of a posh pick to make a run with a rookie quarterback, which I think is scary on some regards, especially for Chicago, who's never had an all pro since 1950, to put that kind of pressure. If that's the prediction, you save the franchise, that's hard. That's hard for, you'd be hard for Peyton Manning. It was hard for, you know, Phillip Rivers. It's hard for any of these young rookie quarterbacks. But I think it's going to work with Caleb. I think the demeanor and the kind of, like he's not Tom Brady. His mindset is not Kobe. It's not chip on the shoulder. I've got to prove you wrong. And I'm going to outwork you. But it's also a little bit, the skill and talent is there. And he's got a level of unflappable to him that I think will translate really well to being in an NFL quarterback, where, you know, to forget the bad play. When you're a rookie, you're going to make bad plays and to go on to the next one. So I am, I do think it's going to work with, with Caleb Williams in Chicago. And for all the Chicago fans, long suffering. But how long? I mean, because, you know, I believe it's going to work. How long until it works? Yeah. Like, are you saying that you think it's going to work this year? Because obviously saying, you know, it should work for Caleb Williams long term. That seems easier. But your take is it more specifically. You don't want to give me easy. Yeah. No, I don't want to give you easy. I don't think Chicago's a playoff team this year. I think they'll write. Roast them, Chicago! I think they're right on the fringe though. And I think it's possible. I just think that should, I think long term, this was an amazing decision, obviously, by them to, from the trade to get the pick to moving on from Justin Fields, I think, I think it's very different. I think Caleb Williams is going to break that 4,000 yard passing record and I think the future's bright. That's all. That's all. It's, it's always fun to watch. I'm not saying like it's not been entertaining. It is entertaining. A couple of big announcements. Whoa. Oh, this announcement sounds terrible. Wow. Okay. What happened? What happened is, is that we have the loser button. No, I mean, what's the terrible announcement? No, no. What is this bad news? Papa Josh is really constipated. Oh yeah. That sounds pretty normal. That's the news. No, I, look, the loser horn is a trumpet and then the horn announced has no graphic and I just mixed them up. You just saw a trumpet and went for it. I just saw the trumpet and I'm like, this is going to make this sound. But we announced it. He's clear. His battles are free. Just now breaking news. We did put one of those buttons in our bathrooms. And so when, what is happening? It goes through the whole studio. When, when you've completed, you push the button and everyone knows. Dun, dun, dun, dun. Wonder who that was. Um, wasn't the Falcon. I know that. Um, all right. He's right there right now. The Megalobold, I just wanted to mention it again here at the top. You can go to Megalobold.com and every footclint supporter gets a free entry to the largest fantasy football league in the world. We've made some awesome changes. Trades are back. If you've played in the past, normally we've had, I mean, over 20,000 people have entered the last couple of years. 5,000 people are in as of this morning. We, we really opened it up yesterday. So they're flooding in. And so that's Megalobold.com. Head over there and the community is jointhefoot.com. We announced a bunch of unique stuff yesterday about the chance to get in there, including the ultimate tier, which if you want to, if you bought the UDK and you want to become a footclint supporter, you can translate the purchase of the 2024 UDK into a, an ultimate membership, which is available at jointhefoot.com. And don't forget, if you win the Megalobold, you are in our 2025 listener league and you get a footclint ultimate tier for life. And Jason, we do have one more announcement before we jump into all that we have prepared on today's show, including hungry for more and NFL news. Do I know what it, do I know what it is? Well you wanted to share some of the things happening at the live show. Oh, okay. So I, I did want the list. We've got the live show on Saturday. I think there are a few tickets left if you want to go ballerslive.com. That's Los Angeles, Palace Theater. Yes. Sorry. But we, we're giving away a bunch of stuff there, signed stuff. And I just wanted to give an example of some of the stuff that, that if you're there, you might just catch this. We're throwing them out, throwing them from the stage. Signed Justin Jefferson Jersey, signed Jalen Watt, we got two Jalen Wattle jerseys. We had two. You kept one? Okay, we'll throw out one. No, I don't know what happened to it. I'm just saying we had two. Oh, okay. We got a Kieran Williams Jersey, a James Cook Jersey, a Nico Collins Jersey, a DJ Moore Jersey, an Evan Ingram Jersey. And we've got classics that have been around the studio for a while, throwbacks. Can I read them? Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're giving away some classics. Yeah. So we're giving away tons of those jerseys you mentioned, but then we have, we were looking around the studio and what we had autographed and we thought it would be fun. There is a signed Dante Pettus Jersey. Going into the crowd. There is a signed Calvin Ridley Jersey, Alshon Jeffrey, Kenny G, baby. Kenny G. We've got David Johnson going out there. Austin Eckler, Michael Crabtree. We have a Michael Crabtree. I remember that guy. So lots of fun stuff. So ballerslive.com. Come see us out there. Someone's out there going, man, I want the Crabtree. All right. Moving on. Welcome to Hungry for More, presented by Uber Eats. All right. So this week on Hungry for More, we're looking for those rising stars. Players you've seen a flash from, had some nibbles in preseason. You want to see more of it? And Jason, why don't you kick it off? Yeah, I'm going to bring up a guy who was my number one favorite rookie running back Hungry For More coming in, in the draft season before the NFL draft. It was rookie Trey Benson, who just so happened to go to our Arizona Cardinals and it was Trey Benson exciting. Now he's a backup. Through the offseason program, it was pretty disappointing. Listening to local beat reporters, it was like he's not, he's competing with Amari DeMarcato and guys that he should just, Michael Carter. We're not even sure he is the backup. However, lately it has gotten better and better for him. It seems like he is establishing himself as the running back too. If you watch this last preseason game, he had nine carries for 43 yards. It does not include a 20 yard run that was called back due to holding and he played every first and second down snap before he was removed. Amari DeMarcato played on third down. So I do feel like if James Conner goes down, which James Conner has never played a full season ever in his entire career, Trey Benson will be really valuable and he's a good back. This is a guy, I mean I've said this many times, I am always hot and bothered. Any running backs that weigh 215 plus pounds and run sub four four, those guys just weren't very hot and bothered. And so, I mean that's a check and a check. 216 pounds, 439. I loved the film and just the fact that we saw him break out and I want to bring him up also for Dynasty. If you're in a Dynasty League, I do believe that halfway through this year, before James Conner gets injured, I mean Trey Benson is going to be a forgotten man. He's going to be irrelevant. He's going to be cheap to acquire. Define cheap though because people are spending first round rookie picks on. Did you say James Conner? Because I think you said James Conner is going to be cheap to acquire. That I can agree with. Were you talking about Trey Benson? If I said that I did not mean to. No, I'm talking about Trey Benson. Trey Benson I think because of James Conner. I said before James Conner gets injured. I believe that Trey Benson will be much more affordable to acquire. It's very similar to a former Arizona Cardinal, Trey McBride, who comes out and is behind a veteran and then he was in the draft season. Mike and I, we spent a first round pick which I usually don't do on rookie tight ends. We pulled the trigger on that in our Champ-Champ-Champ League. You love rookie tight end? It looked like a dead pick because he was just not involved and I think Trey Benson is not going to be involved to start the year. However, James Conner is not the future of this franchise. James Conner I'm guessing is not even back the next season and Trey Benson will be a, I believe a star in fantasy in the future. So halfway through this year, if he's really irrelevant, I would try to scoop him up. I'll just throw out a really deep name here, Deontah Foreman for the Browns. Really deep. Does that sarcasm or real? No, that was real. He looked great in preseason this last week. He always does. D’Onta Foreman And he also got the two snaps he got with the first team offense happened on the one yard line. We have highlighted this throughout the offseason with Jerome Ford. Like if Deontah Foreman has the goal line opportunities, like it's funny because Foreman looked very Kareem Hunt-esque in his opportunities. He was five for 46 in the receiving game. He had, you should look it up, he had a cut in the open field that was pretty amazing and his opportunities with the first team came on the goal line. So depth at running back in Cleveland is interesting with how much they'll use Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong, Deontah Foreman, the free agent acquisition. I think he has the opportunity to earn more snaps. So look, it's hungry for more for a reason. So he had nine rushing touchdowns last year, Kareem Hunt did in Cleveland's offense. They do look for somebody else to be the goal line back. Like that wasn't Jerome Ford. Yeah, Ford is not going to be the goal line back. So I mean, if it's Foreman and this team is as good as I think they will be, which is going to be an incredible defense that is, you know, there were a playoff team last year going through four quarterbacks. I think that the goal line role is valuable. So you know, even if you're in best ball and you look at the chance like Foreman could have a couple, you know, two touchdown games or something like that. Mike, what is your hungry for more? Boys, I am hungry for cold hard cash. Wide receiver contracts I am hungry for some wide receiver contracts. What is happening in the world today when we have three top tier wide receivers, like we can let's say two elite wide receivers and one top tier guy, Jamar Chase, Brandon Iuk, CD lamb all out there, not practicing, not with new contracts. And we are, we're in draft season now. So I just, I wanted to bring this up because I think it's worth having just a quick cover conversation of, are there elevated levels of concern starting to grow for these players? Yes. They're, they're elite, but they're elite and they're not running backs, but they're still not out there practicing, getting the reps, making sure that the timing is good with the quarterbacks and the playbook. So where are you guys at? Cause these are those, that's two first round picks and one and Brandon Iuk is going, you know, often the third, maybe even late second sometimes. So where are you growing in concern of adjusting projections? I haven't adjusted projections, but I'm, I mean, this is such a great hungry for more call out because gosh, I'm sick of it. Like get on. Yeah. It's super annoying now. It's like when I'm at the, the, the, you know, if I'm in the top three picks, two of those top three are going to be, you know, or a top four for me, two of those top four are Jamar Chase and CD lamb. And it's like, I would love for these guys to be playing football and, and the report coming out and I don't know how I, how much I believe it because game checks are different. But like the report that Jamar Chase isn't going to step on the football field without an extension when he's got two years left, his feels all three of them are, are, they just feel different. Each situation feels different. I like yesterday there were some positive news from Jerry Jones that they're making progress on CD lamb. I put the pull out. I was on the line first of the three guys middle of yesterday, almost 50% said CD and then Chase and then IU in terms of, but that's like kind of draft order. So it's like, how desperate are you? I would imagine that if I had a handicap right now, my guess is CD signs and Brandon and IU resigns with San Francisco. Okay. And Chase does not get a deal done, but maybe they restructure something. I, I don't like it. It's not fun. I'm not going to get it. We're sick of it. I spent all last off season saying, I'm not worried about Josh Jacobs. I'm not worried about Josh Jacobs. He's going to be fine. He'll be back in camp. Everything will go well. There were other things that went wrong in Las Vegas beyond Jacobs being late to camp, but we're all tired of it. We want certainty. We want to know what we're doing. We're drafting now. It was all fun and games before we were draft. Yeah. We're, we're in drafts right now. We got drafts this weekend. Important drafts, real drafts like your main league listener is, it could be this weekend. So let me ask you, you know, push comes to shove. If you're on the clock and you've got to decide between a Jamar Chase, who I would have had ahead in my rankings, do you switch and pull the trigger on Bijon or Breeze because of these fears? Like not knowing as of this moment. Yeah. I mean, I would, I would. I mean, I'm probably drafting those guys ahead regardless, but, but yeah, I would, I would let that be a differentiator. What are we talking about? You don't want Bijon or Breeze on your team. Jamar Chase has had a bumpy ride for a couple of years. I mean, I think he's very, everyone's waiting for that year, which will probably happen at some point, the 2000 yards, the, you know, 17 touchdown year, that'll probably happen. But just saying that you know, you're going to pay them. Like this is what's the most frustrating stupid part. We all know how this ends. You write a big fat check, the number that they're asking for, you're going to give them. You're going to do it. We fast forward two weeks, four weeks, whatever long it is, we're going to report that you're paying bananas money for these guys. So do it now and get them on the field. Yeah. Stop hurting your teammates. Save, save face by adding two dumb contract stipulations that make you feel like the big man. Yeah. And then get the deal done with the money they want because you know every team in the league would do it. Per article seven B. Yeah. I, Jerry Jones. Yeah. It's all. Voice my disdain that you have, that you have put me through this. I just want another record. Yeah. Do that. I will be paying your fourth check in pennies, but otherwise all terms agreeable. All right. That was hungry for more presented by Uber eats get almost almost anything for game day delivered with Uber eats official on demand delivery partner of the NFL. You can order it right now. News and notes from around the league presented by us a insurance. NFL News Kyle Tyree kill will be ready for week one. That is the report from P F N Adam Beasley. A. Dylan didn't see Mike McDaniel his comments. No I didn't. Where they as entertainings everything he says all the time. He says I'm really good at thumb wars. He lost because it's a, oh that's good. So it's a thumb injury for Tyree. And apparently it happened playing coach McDonald's. That's good stuff. Yeah. Yeah. That's fun. A.J. Dylan didn't practice due to a stinger. Nothing big there. This one J. Lonnie Woods expected to undergo surgery in the myth. Yeah. I mean it does hurt the team who is kind of, you know, they need more weapons and Jelani Woods is a big weapon but they have a pile, you know, Will Mallory and Moale Cox and Kylan Granson. Like they have a bunch of tight ends anyway. This is every year. Every year the Colts have four or five relevant tight ends. Three of them get hurt and the other two are irrelevant and we move on. This is why I was so sure that Brock Bowers would be a Colt till the Raiders ruined it. Joann Johnson has been activated from the PUP list. Tight end of the Saint underfoot foot surgery this spring. So another. Deep sleeper. Yeah. And they don't have players outside of a Lave in the passing game right now anyway. So Brock Bowers missed Tuesday's practice with a sore foot and missed the last preseason game with the same issues. So yeah, just something to monitor. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USA.com slash insurance. We'll take a break. We'll come back with some bust picks. All right. We're going to jump right in. The last two days we did breakouts and sleepers are individual picks for these categories. All of our consensus picks are in the ultimate draft kit where we have at least two thirds agreement. Most of them I think this year. I think I don't know if we're getting soft. I know I think we're we just we're getting better and we all agree on some of these these clear more lips. This episode we do not agree. This episode we got some. Yeah this is there's some bad takes. Yeah. I agree. Yours. You know. Yeah. All right. We each have a individual bust pick. Busts Jason's is deeply upsetting. I agree. Mike do you want to go first? You want me to go first? I'm happy to go first. I'm trying to save like I can see the analytics of people that watch our show. And a lot of people listen to the whole thing but like statistically speaking there's drop off over time because people have a certain amount of time to listen so you can watch it you know like 100% of people listening and then it goes down a little bit. So then I'll go next. I'm trying to push yours to the back. Yeah. All right. Mike you go first and then we'll get to Jason and I is very controversial picks. It it it's kind of been the same the whole off season and my my opinions haven't changed. I think that Joe mixing of the Houston Texans now I don't think he returns on his ADP. Mike’s Bust Pick My main point of argument is that he cannot keep getting away with this and what I mean what I mean by that is I am Jesse Pinkman right now of the guy has been good for fantasy football you can't argue with that but it has been inefficient and gross to watch and he can't keep getting away with it. Last year he was the RB five. However fantasy points per game that's his worst since 2019 yards per route run worst of his career yards after contact worse since his rookie year break away 15 yard runs the good stuff that we want the worst of his career just seven runs of 15 or more yards on two hundred and ninety nine rush attempts guys that's a breakaway percentage that is in line with last year's Alvin Camara Rashad White like guys who when you watched him you go well that guy's getting it done by pure volume and just being on the field and that's what Joe mixing was last year. He had thirty nine attempts inside the 10. Wow thirty nine and he scored eight rushing touchdowns. That is an inefficient player. The other says like awesome. How'd you how'd you do that. How'd you get up to eight. And this is a running back five on the season. However that is because we're not we're not taking out game or week the final week of the season for him but if you do because not everyone's playing fantasy football that week he was the running back 13 in points per game from weeks one through 17 his best ability last year was availability over the first half of the year. He was scoring basically as much points or as many points as Tony Pollard who people were big mad at Tony Pollard Joe mixing just happened to finish a little bit later or a little bit better. And it's the question of does this work for the Houston Texans. Yes the Cincinnati Bengals high powered offense Houston Texans high powered offense for the most part. I yeah I want running backs who are in that type of a system. I just think that Joe mixing is being a little bit overdrafted. He's not off my board but I think that he is being overdrafted. I'm not sure that he's going to work in this system. Look this is Bobby Sloak aka San Francisco South and what is the players that we see work for that system. They got juice Joe mixing at this point of his career where he's seen his efficiency of yards per carry in the last five years before one three six four one three nine four oh he is not explosive. I don't know who on this team goes in and takes work away from Joe mixing. That's why I'm saying he's not totally off my board. It could be nobody because the Damian Pierce numbers are like Barnum and Bailey type circus numbers. They are so laughably bad. I'll whisper the name can makers. I will whisper that he was he was potentially my hungry for more. Yeah. But you can say his preseason performance has been pretty good. We must whisper together about came here because the I just I see so many things. Going wrong for him. And of course the targets I brought that up before of Joe mixing love checking it down to Joe mixing last year the Texans and CJ Stroud while while while single Terry started to turn it on a little bit at the end. They were still one of the lowest targets to the running back position because of see just out how he plays the quarterback position. So again this is not I'm not saying it's gloom and doom for Joe mixing is an absolute disaster. There's some things that I love about it but I'm just he's in that nervous. He's in the dead zone for running backs for a reason. I know that Jason has a very different opinion on Joe makes. Yeah I don't agree that he is. I mean I think he's a quality back. Can keep getting away with this. I think he can. I think he will keep getting away with this. I mean I agree with you that that system is much better with an explosive speedster. I mean that's where you're going to get the juice of the real high upside and I would agree with you that mixing does not have that. But would you say Devon single Terry has explosive juice. I think that he's got good short area speed better than Joe mixing. OK I mean maybe maybe maybe a but all yeah I'm just like no one has ever talked about Devon single Terry as an explosive athlete. He's a quality back that has good vision and and you know can make the first guy miss in a box and and Joe mixing can break that first tackle in a box. My point is last year when they made that transition away from trying to make Damian Pierce work and they said OK single Terry is better. You're the lead back from that point forward. He was the running back nine in this system. I can't wait for them to find that running back this year. Yeah I mean this is a maker. This is why he's not a consensus yeah bus pick Joe mixing is 28 years old. That's so that's we're at age cliff. He's going into season eight. He is at season cliff like there are the red flags on Joe are waving rapidly. I lean lean like a slight two steps to the right towards the mix and being OK for this year. Yeah yeah I don't think he's going to be a top five guy but I don't think he's going to be you know the running back 20. I look at him and Jacob similar where good offense good money red flags from previous inefficiencies but I could be just wrong about them in either direction. Yeah at least Jacobs is younger. I'm gonna offend and then Jason will offend my bus pick is not going to make people happy. Andy’s Bust Pick It's Jackson Smith and jigsaw and I know you're both booing. You know but it's from the heart. I just want you to know that there are a number of things that I will point to on Jason that are concerning and I feel like the only way to really believe in Jason is excuse making to a large degree. It is either leaning on collegiate production. It's leaning on a change in offensive philosophy and coordinator and head coach but it's not leaning on the signs that we saw on the football field last year and what we saw in the field was concerning not even drawing attention to weeks one through six where Terris Marshall and Jonathan Mingo and Kaderius Tony and Alan Robinson had more fantasy points than he did because he was hurt and I'm willing to allow that beginning of the season to be a bit of a washout. You would have loved to have seen him do more but banged up so we'll give you that excuse let's check that one off the box. Thank you. The problem is that he didn't make the kinds of splash plays over the duration of the season that I wanted to see beyond that point and I genuinely believe that there are two wide receivers on the team that today are better wide receivers. They're better route runners. They're better they have a better history of production. Tyler Lockett is still a better wide receiver. They went out and they gave Tyler Lockett more money. He's still a part of this offense. We are just tired of him in the fantasy world so we want to move on to JSN. Over the last decade and mind you he averaged 37 yards per game last year. Over the last decade here are the first round rookie wide receivers to average fewer than 40 yards per game with 10 games played. JSN is one of them. Quentin Johnston Brashad Perriman Devonte Parker Henry Ruggs Nelson Aguilar Jalen Rager Corey Davis Philip Dorsett Mike Williams. That's a bad list. It's not good company. What was the guards? That was just if you played 10 games as a rookie or more and averaged less than 40 yards a game. That was the list and you're a first rounder and you're a first round pick. Did you say Jameson Williams? Jameson Williams. Yeah. He didn't play 10 games as a rookie did he? No. No. I'm looking at 23. My apologies. And for whatever reason like we have to make leaps with JSN. We have to say okay well you're not going to use them like you did last year. That's going to change because we have to use them differently for him to be productive because his average depth of target was 6.4 yards. It was vomit. So I mean he had 29 receptions behind the line of scrimmage. We did this once and I'm not saying they're the same player but the draft capital isn't that insanely far apart. Like Ryan Delmore we kept saying like dude this guy's great down the field. We need to use him that way. He got boxed in and I'm worried about JSN getting boxed in when you have a better talent and DK Metcalf on one side, a better talent and Tyler Lockett on the other side, a dependency on Geno Smith who may or may not be the future. You don't have to pay a ton for JSN but this is a bust. This is a bust section on the show. This is a bust segment. I think JSN is not going to deliver on the promise this year. And this is not something that like eventually the first round draft capital becomes a fun factoid about a player like Corey Coleman or John Ross or Johan Dotson or Kaderius Tony. Like those were first round picks and they got boxed in and they didn't pan out. So it's not like there's a guarantee that just because he was drafted or he was drafted or dominated in college that his future is set to, you know, you know, Davonti Parker eventually had some good years. Like some of those guys, Mike Williams. Fifth year breakout baby. Like it's not impossible. I'm not saying Jackson Smith and Jigba is a lifetime bust but I do think there are two better wide receivers on this football team. That's all I'm going to say. Yeah, I mean, I hear some of your arguments and it is upsetting from an emotional standpoint because I still believe that he is very talented and the utilization, the way they used him, Shane Waldron, it was just so gross. It was so nasty and you're right. Obviously, if he gets boxed into that role, that's not going to work. Part of what we've talked about this offseason, the new grub system coming over. You saw so much success from the slot players. You know, Jaylen Polk was in that role that JSN has now for this system and I think the way they utilize him, you know, you can have a lot of value from the slot but not if you're getting 29 catches behind the line of scrimmage. It's actually a point that I wanted to bring up was effectiveness in the slot. You have to be really effective. Like historically speaking in fantasy. If that's your full-time role, yes. If that's your full-time role, you really have to do a lot. You can be an amazing asset to the team and not deliver for fantasy from the slot. So it just feels like maybe we're asking too much this year. I'm not sure but that's one I wanted to bring up. All right. And moving on to the values. Not yet, sucker. Can I leave the room? No, you need to listen. You have all people need to listen. Mike doesn't need to listen. Jason’s Bust Pick I don't know, probably. Can you hit the boo button for yourself? Yes I can. My bust pick is Marvin Harrison Jr. Rookie-Wad receiver from the Arizona Cardinals. Yeah, I know. This pains me as much as anyone. I love Marv. He is not going to be a bust in the NFL. He is not going to be a bust in his career. He is the most surefire prospect I can ever remember. This is not about whether he is good or not. He's great. This is about whether where he's being drafted in fantasy football during his rookie season is a good pick. That's all this is. And I don't believe it's a good pick when I look at the opportunity cost that you can, you know, the shots you can take on him. And really it's almost more, when I look at my strategy, it's like the wide receivers here at the break, at that one-two turn. Like I think he would be a good pick at the two-three turn but that's not where he's going. He's going ahead of a lot of guys and right around guys that I feel like there's a big tear break, the Devonte Adams where it's like, ah, he's older. You know, he wasn't consistent last year. He's got a bad quarterback. Okay, Chris Olavi, you know, he's the one but he's got Derek Carr. Drake London could break up but he hasn't done it yet. And then that's why Marv is going super high because you're like, well, what if he is the next greatest player and you get that top five breakout rookie season. I'm not saying that it's impossible that that happens but the odds are that that doesn't happen. So when we look at drafting, you know, first of all, he's the highest drafted rookie wide receiver of all time. There's never been anyone close to this. The second highest was a fourth round draft pick. In fact, the second highest is Malik Neighbors this season when you look at average draft position of a rookie wide receiver. He's going as the wide receiver nine. And if you look at the opportunity cost, the expectation over the last six years of top 10 wide receiver has averaged 148 targets, over 100 receptions, 1366 receiving yards, 9.6 receiving touchdowns. That's what you're going to need for this pick to pay off for him to be a top 10 guy. Right now his DraftKings sports book line for receiving yards is 1000 and a half yards, not 1366. 9.6 touchdowns as a rookie. You sure a thousand and a half is in 1500 yards? I'm sure. Okay. 1000.5. It's a high bar to reach. It's a super high bar for a rookie. And if he comes out and hits 1100 yards and seven touchdowns on 80 receptions, that is an amazing rookie season. You will absolutely not have made a good draft pick at the one, two turn getting that kind of a production. When I look at it and you've got to put names into, okay, how else could you play? Are you taking him over Kyron Williams? That look, I was going to say there is a peacemaking that can happen right here. And it's not selecting a different wide receiver. Right. It's selecting the opportunity cost at running back, which more often than not I would do despite loving Marvin. I feel like the bust pick for me really here is the beginning of the second wide receivers. I feel like those are mistakes because when I look at the wide receivers you can make up in rounds three through five, there are names. We just look Malik neighbors in the fourth, Cooper cup, DK Metcalf. I mean, maybe they don't put check over him over Marvin. No, no, because just because of the ADP game, I'm really that was in the third purely for our league of record mock draft. They did last night. I know you've got the fifth pick and I want to know if you're taking Marvin. Honestly, funny. So I just think if you go a different route, there's a couple running backs there that I think are more valuable and then there are chock full of the waddles, Devontae Smiths, rounds later that I think are going to produce pretty similarly to Marvin Harrison Jr. So it pains me as a Cardinals fan, but I think where he's going drafts is a bad pick. Yeah, it's unfortunate that bust four letters, very powerful word. Yeah, he's my... That means something different in fantasy. He's my wide receiver 14. So it's like, is that a bust of a rookie season for Marvin Harrison Jr.? No, that's awesome. I do. But if you draft them as the wide receiver nine, he finishes as the wide receiver 14, you aren't going to be happy. Do you agree, Mike, or do you think that Marvin might just maybe the thousand and a half will be what I defined it as? I agree that the risk is tremendous. And this is not the risk on the player of all three of us, despite how we are projections, our feelings of evaluating the situation. Andy, you're at 10, at least with the most recent projections. That's still a spot behind his ADP, which like that's not a ton, of course, but when you're in the top 10 of a position, that is a gap. I have him right now at 11 where he's being drafted as the wide receiver nine on sleeper. So it just comes down to how much risk are you willing to take on because the numbers, when you actually see them laid out of what he has to hit to pay off at that or even exceed your expectations, it's a gigantic season, gigantic. All right, going to take a break, come back with some values. One final thought on Marvin Harrison as we jump into the values is there is a, I think one thing going into the equation is fun, enjoyment. The type of player you want to put on your roster that you don't want to miss on. Only wants to take, I don't know, somebody going back behind him and miss out on that special year, especially in keeper leagues where the potential is to hold that guy. Oh yeah, I mean, a keeper league is, that does ring different because where you're going and those other wide receivers around them, you're going to want Devonte Adams on a keeper league or Marv for sure. All right, let's jump into some values. Well, we'll go in the same order, Mike. Values You can kick it off and follow up my hungry for more with the starter. Yeah, the current starter from the Cleveland Browns, it's Jerome Ford who, I don't understand Mike’s Value Pick the ADP. I do not get it. Jerome Ford last year had to step into a big time role because Nick Chubb went down to the devastating injury very early in the season and then it was Jerome Ford time. And while it was not, this isn't the real sexy, oh man, I'm getting weak winning performances from Jerome Ford. He was in the top 24, the bar that we need people to be in 11 times. That's one more time the Breece Hall was in the top 24. Again, not saying they're the same player, but just that he averaged nearly 16 opportunities per game. He is, he is a good pass catcher. He was third on the Browns in targets per route run, 44 receptions. Like that's more than Saquon Barkley had this past year. He had five receiving touchdowns. That could be a bar that could be definitely harder to hit again, but only Christian McCaffrey had more among the running back position. Like he is a competent player and he is going to be the starter on the Cleveland Browns for at least a chunk of the season. Maybe it's only four games. I don't care. Those four games, that's a good percentage of the season. Should you build your team heavy with wide receivers and some onesie positions, Jerome Ford is sitting in here just as a Christmas gift to someone that can be your RB two for the first quarter of the season while you try and figure out more guys or Nick Chubb is older has had the same need destroyed multiple times and Nick Chubb really never gets back to the player that he was, that you would hope he could get to. And it's just Jerome Ford's time for half the season, 75% of the season. So it's just like the fact that you can get someone who's going to see that many opportunities for I'm, I don't know that I'm as bullish on the Browns as Andy is, but I think they're going to be a good offense. And Stefansky has given us good stuff. Even with that, even with bad quarterback play. So getting him at running back 40 is it just, it's an absolute value and a steal from me. Guys going like Trey Benson, Trey Benson is going right around, around Jerome Ford, Blake Corum. They're going around Jerome Ford. Like what are we doing here? We are, we are seeing the dismissal of the boring and Jerome Ford, I had him on my roster last year, watching him play is mostly boring. Yeah, super. He's effective, but he's boring, which is what my pick is here. I'm going boring as well in a lot of people's minds, but so very much the number one on Andy’s Value Pick this team that I think will be better than people think on offense. And I'm going Brian Robinson, Jr. I'm going Brian Robinson is my value pick. I've been talking him up this off season. Brian Robinson is boring, boring. And he was so boring that he was the number, he was the RB4 in fantasy football for 11 weeks to start last year on the highest passing volume team in the national football league. That's what Brian Robinson was for your team. And this is a guy that can catch the football. That's been the evolution of Brian Robinson. He can catch it. He will catch it. He'll be a part of what we've seen with Cliff Kingsbury and effectiveness on the ground. Like Kingsbury's pass rate in Arizona was much lower than people thought. He ran the football a ton. And Brian Robinson was super effective. He had a hamstring injury at the end of the year. But this was a, this was one of the biggest MVPs of fantasy that you found late in your draft last season that you started plugging him in every single week. He's been drafted in the late ninth round as the RB34. So the efficiency went up in year two. I like what I see on film every time I watch Brian Robinson. He brings you the intangible factors of an every downback that coaches love clearly, that got him play ahead of that spunkier Antonio Gibson that's going to give him play in front of a older Austin Eckler. And that's going to get him an opportunity to catch the football. They're still searching for a wide receiver too on this roster. So to me, Brian Robinson is the most boring late round running back that you should take on your team. And every comment that I've seen out of Cliff Kingsbury and this roster and the way they've played it in the preseason, you know, this has been very, very good under Cliff Kingsbury when you're running back. Kenyon Drake, James Conner, 10 rushing touchdowns was the average. Brian Robinson loves the end zone. I was going to say the, we know about Cliff Kingsbury is like, he loves the route bush for, when he has superstars like the Andrew Hopkins, got to keep a close to the line of scrimmage. And number two, what we know about Cliff Kingsbury is his favorite play to call for sure of all time is when you get close to the goal line, no trickery, no shenanigans. We are higher T than you. We're going to run up the mill. It's going to be a handoff to that running back that you see and he's going to go nowhere, but straight. Yeah. Did it work? No. Do it again. It's going to work this time. Did it work? No. It's going to work this time. You want to see how many total at the next season, we're going to talk about Brian Robinson and how many carries inside the five he received simply because they'll do it three or four times in a row. We lived that Cliff Kingsbury experience and it actually ended up working. I mean, James Carter had a lot of rushing touchdowns from inside the one. If these guys are on the board at the same time, Mike, are you are you looking Brian Robinson or are you looking Jerome Ford? Better offense versus if better player. If it's the two of them together, I'll go with Brian Robinson. They're separated by about a round. So you can get both of these guys, but Brian Rob like Jerome Ford. You just, I still think he's a rental, but it's just how long does that, how long before your landlord comes in here and evicts you from the building? Brian Robinson should be the starter all year. I think some of the years of my past, when I look at values, they're easy to pick. They're guys that are going to beat their ADP, but they're not really guys that necessarily help you win a fantasy football championship. I worry a little bit with both these guys that it's like, I totally think both these guys beats their ADP. They're better than the running back 34. They're better than the running back 40, but are they good enough to really like truly change the landscape? And that's part of the roster construction. I think these guys are good if you loaded up on wide receivers, if you're going zero running back and then you can find guys that are just going to give you enough points to hold those positions while you dominate elsewhere. But that's why my value pick to jump on that. I am in full agreement. I think if you're riding the whole year and Brian Robinson and Jerome Ford are your running backs, no, that's not going to be strong enough to win the championship. But you need depth at the position. And these are guys that help you in the meantime. They're band-aids that you can get really, these are not expensive at all. You just put the band-aid on. They help you out for a couple of weeks throughout the season. Maybe you're waiting on insurance running backs to turn into starters because of injury. In the meantime, while those guys are getting five opportunities a game, Brian Robinson and Jerome Ford are going to be seeing 15 plus opportunities a game. Yeah. Yeah. It's an interesting discussion, but it was neat to see last year that Brian Robinson didn't just have, you know, he had the high upside games to finish number one on the week, to finish number two on the week, to have some performances that were because of the receiving work way higher than people expected. Yeah. That was what was so surprising was his receiving work. I just worry with Austin Eckler there now, is he going to lose some of that receiving work? It was a concern to me, but Gibson's a great pass catcher and he was part of that offense last year. And all the commentary has been so positive about his pass catching chops. I look at it as neutral. It's so funny because I don't feel like he came into the league as some like pass catching extraordinary talent, but he has been used that way since he's been in the NFL. And scoring through the air, four touchdowns through the air, but go on. Yeah. My value pick is a guy I do think can help you actually bring home a championship and he is undervalued. In fact, he's the lowest he has ever been drafted since his breakout. I agree. And this is a guy I've been off of the last couple of years from the boom, bust potential. Jason’s Value Pick It's the tight end for the San Francisco 49ers, George Kittle. You're going to call him a wide receiver? I was, but I mean, he's got enough receiving yards to be a wide receiver. He is, you guys have, I think you guys have persuaded me towards Kittle or taking another look at Kittle over the last month or so. We did the ranking show. Mike, I think you have them really high or maybe it's Jason, but I think you, you had me take another look and it was, it was juicier than, than I remembered. Yeah, I mean, this is a guy who has been a top five tight end in five of the past six years. So it's like to say he should be a top five tight end this year. It seems like that's way in the range of outcomes. And you know, he's, it worked, it worked both ways in those years, like to finish top five, but also the ride was bad sometimes. Well, and you were usually drafting him, you know, as the, as the tight end two, right? So I didn't three. You were chasing that 2018 record breaker. Yeah, like he had 215 fantasy points that year. And then since then it's been 180, one, a down year where he only played eight games, but then 162, 170, 170. So it's, it's about your expectations of what George Kittle, he's not going to give you the two 15 right? I, unless he'd look, he has paths. Yeah. IU gets traded and he becomes more of a number two, number three target in this offense. Even in 2023 last year, he let all tight ends in receiving yards. He had the most. He had the most 20 plus yard plays. His yards per route run were the best in the league. He's a super good player. And it's easy to label him as a boom bust and move on, but I want to highlight two things, his draft capital and his splits with Brock Purdy. Cause that's, that's who he's playing with now. He's got 23 games so far with Purdy, 12 of the 23 are 10 plus fantasy points, 52%. That's a pretty solid floor for a tight end. To give you a frame of reference, that is a higher percentage than DJ Moore, who was a wide receiver one last year. In terms of 10 plus point games. Yes. 10 plus point games. He had nine of those 23 with 15 plus points. Those are the weak winning performances from a tight end. When you get 15 plus, you're like, Oh man, good luck dealing with that. That is, that's an awesome boom potential. We've known he's got that only Kelsey is better in the last two years of the percentage of real true weak winning performances. And then if you look at the bust rate, fewer than seven points, real bad games. He has 10 of those, which sounds pretty bad, 43%. But the more I looked into it, all the elite tight ends bust, Sam LaPorta last year had 36% bust rate. He had six games where he busted. Kelsey was at 27%. So I think where he's going, because his, his positional draft position, you know, used to be the tight end two, tight end two, tight end three. He is the tight end seven right now. He's being drafted oftentimes behind, you know, Kyle Pitts and other people that we're just, we just got named fatigue with, with George Kittle and he does have a path for super stardom. Should Brandon I you not end up being on this roster, which any minute he's probably assigned a long-term deal. It's not just that it's Brandon I you could be on this offense. He gets hurt. Debo is kind of his favorite thing to do is to miss game. So that there are paths and it's, well, even a CMC is like, it's like a race to get him ready for week one. Yeah. And I think it's the fact that you are drafting him appropriately and not still chasing the dragon of 2018. I'm, I'm with you, J. I think that he is a great value. Yeah. I, um, I think you guys have, have kind of opened my eyes on Kittle a little bit in terms of where I have him ranked and maybe making some tweaks. So those are our individual value picks on today's episode, following up those bus picks and one more reminder, head over to Megaloball.com or Jason will explode. They'll explode either way, but really fun to come and play in the largest fantasy football league in the known universe. Megaloball.com has all the details on how the league is played and the rules and how many people make the playoffs and how the draft times go because we are drafting from the 31st of August through September 4th. I believe the day before kickoff will be the last draft. So lots of times to choose from to pick something that you prefer. And the three of us are, are in, uh, I think different time slots. Yes. So you got a chance to play with us even this year. A gentleman never tells his draft slot. Yes. So where are you then? Oh, okay. Boom. Roasted. You're the scoundrel. Okay. That's it. We're done for now. But don't worry. A brand new segment tomorrow. You do not want to miss. Oh, man. Take swap. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.