If Kamala Harris and Democrats win this group, the election is OVER! Kamala wins, Trump loses.

all right so we finally have the cross tabs for the flash pole that was done by CNN immediately after the debate and there is a lot of information to glean from these polls so we're going to get into the cross tabs look at them because there are some numbers that are quite honestly um Earth moving to to to tell you the truth and if KLA Harris is able to take these numbers that we see and actually change them into votes the Democrats could have a huge huge night on election day in November so we're going to delve into the cross tabs we're going to look at those we're also going to look at the ipsas poll that just has a bunch of top lines we're not going to get much into it but we are going to get into the topl lines and see what the trends are there they're pretty much good for KLA Harris now before we get into the poll I just want to say that I have just turned on memberships for this channel so if you're interested in being a member and want to support the channel please go ahead and do so I am going to have membersonly content videos where I dig really deep into a lot of the polls and do unedited videos of actually examining the polls and I'm also going to be doing live streams for members only and then when I do some other live streams have member only comments so I want to make it that you actually get something from the membership there are two memberships please if you're interested in joining go ahead and join today and if you're not interested in joining but you like what you see you can go ahead and put a super chat it's greatly appreciated there's a lot that I would like to accomplish with this channel over the next year or two I want to be able to make it so that we can take a lot of these statistics and gather a lot more statistics and bring you a lot more information about the electorate getting ready for the 2026 election midterm so thank you all very much for this little you know self-indulgence as far as joining but please go ahead and join if you'd like to get those member benefits the videos for members only will be starting this weekend now looking at this poll from CNN we're going to look at the cross tabs obviously but we're going to look at Donald Trump's number First and the reason why we're looking at his number first as you'll see here his numbers don't change that much pre and post debate and I think that's because the guy has been running for president for nine years and we pretty much know about him maybe we didn't know about the dog eating stuff but but besides that we pretty much know about him so let's go ahead and delve just into his favor building rating and this just shows you right off the bat how there's just absolutely no movement in his numbers so as you can see before the debate he had a 39 to 51 favorable unfavorable rating and then after the debate it just really did not move whatsoever and before the debate 50% of the people thought he would win but then at the end once they watched the debate they only 37% of the people said that he actually did win okay so I want to just backtrack a little bit this poll had 39% Republicans 30 % Democrats and 30% Independents so this actually is a republican leaning poll and you will see this in the cross tabs because kamla Harris will be doing a lot worse than what you're seeing in Cross tabs in other polls Nationwide so this is a republican leaning poll and the fact that she actually won the debate against you know in this poll 63 to 37 shows that maybe some in the center right or kind of maybe warming up to K Harris we don't know but I'm just wanting to tell you that this is a poll that skews more to Republicans all right with that being said let's go ahead and look at KLA Harris's numbers and man this debate performance helped her out as you can see overall her favorable rating before was 39 to 50 that's very similar to what Donald Trump had but afterwards she actually was above water 45 to 40 so we do see a good Sixpoint shift in both of these categories for favorable and unfavorable so these numbers overall are really really good it showed that she won but she also had more people have a favorable opinion of her and maybe get a little bit of trust in her now let's go into what I see are some of the more important cross tabs when it comes to this poll because there are some that just really you know stuck out and and I wanted to mention them and the first one are voters 65 and older so let's go ahead and take a look at that cross tab now if you look at a 65 and older V voters going in they were very much like the population in general 39% had a favorable rating of K Harris with 50% and unfavorable but look after that debate that is a flip wow 47% almost 50% 47% had a favorable rating of her and 41% an unfavorable rating now remember seniors are going to be voters who are going to be highly likely to turn out if all of a sudden people are warming up to kamla Harris feeling more trust in KLA Harris feel that she's going to do the job and they like her and they have a favorable opinion of her then this is going to I mean it's not going be a momentous shift there will still be people who might have a favorable rating of her but actually vote for Donald Trump but you only need a few in in races where we're talking about percentages you only need a few and this is an excellent number so let's go ahead and go over to the next cross tab now in this cross tab we have independent voters and before the debate 30% of of them thought favorably of K Harris where 47% did not remember I said this is a GOP leaning poll but these Independence we don't know their ideology we don't have deeper cross tabs so just be aware of that but after the debate wow again we see an 18o increase in favorability and we see a drop in unfavorability so amongst Independence we do see this now whether Independence matter or not really depends on the state because some states will have very left leaning Independence others will have more right leaning Independence and then some will just be right down the middle now in Most states the non-party registered voters or those who are deemed independent usually will Trend to the left slightly to the left but again when it usually comes to who turns out on Election Day independent voters many times nonp party affiliate voters just maybe mirror what the eventual composition is of the electorate we can't glean too much out of this the only thing I wanted to show was that there was this big shift now let's go over to moderate voters now as I mentioned in my other videos I think there are three groups of people that she needs to Target Hispanic voters young voters moderate voters but I'm going to take those young voters and take them out and replace them with the senior voters because the senior voters are starting to solidify for the Democrats and for Kamala Harris if she wins that large group of high turnout voters or at least higher turnout voters especially compared to the 18 to 29 crowd game set match done so let's go ahead and go over to moderate voters and see what they're doing as you can see in this case her favorability rate amongst moderates was even lower here 38% and her unfavorable rating was 43% but after the debate boom huge shift 10% shift 48% favorable and 37% un favorable very very much above water so you're seeing her not just make these shifts where she just gets above water you see her underwater quite significantly and then you see her you know her head above water quite significantly so we're not talking about some small little changes when it comes to favorable and unfavorability ratings we're talking about pretty significant and substantial changes so you seen male voters 35% before the debate and 52% unfavorable before the debate but after the debate that obviously she's still down and she's still underwater but you are talking about an 8% favorability swing in her favor that is huge when if we're talking about an election with just winning it on the margins these are those margins these are where where uh these margins will be made up and as you can see our unfavorability rating went down a little bit in her unfavorability rating went down not as much as her favorability rating went up so this shows that maybe some more independent undecided voters who didn't know who they were going for who were male they're now shifting towards Kam Harris let's look at the female vote now amongst women this really gives you an idea of how right leaning this poll is because in almost every poll that we see amongst Women Voters that number before the debate would be flipped and usually would be significantly over 50% but in this one you can see 42 to 48 favorable to unfavorable before but then the numbers I mean the numbers just essentially flipped 47 to 42 so she's above water but that number seems a little bit low for Women Voters but still uh it is a flip nonetheless now when we talk about the the bait performance itself and how it actually impacted people like the shifts that were happening so how many people sat there and said okay I'm a trump or Harris supporter but after watching that debate I'm switching well let's first look at the Harris supporters and then let's look at the Trump supporters and when I mean Harris supporters I mean they were Harris supporters before the debate and then maybe they had a change now looking at the kamla Harris group only 2% of kamla Harris supporters now are going to change to Trump due to that debate performance now remember if the electorate is essentially 5 50 right this is about a 1% change now of those considering but still support hars 10% so overall 12% of her electorate is maybe either moving or shifting in some way or whatever so that means that 88% are still sticking with her now if we look at Donald Trump it's a little bit different because it's it's not 12% it's 23% and as a matter of fact that 6% changing to Harris now let's let's go back to what I was just saying a second ago which is that you know if the if the electorate is essentially 50/50 you can take this percentage cut it in half and this could be how it impacts the electorate this could be a 3% swing against Donald Trump if 6% of his voters have now all of a sudden gone to kamla Harris that's a 3% shift okay and we again we're talking about a republican leaning poll but you still have 177% of people who say they are considering changing but they're still supporting Trump these are huge numbers these are kind of like red red flag you know alarms going off you got to be worried about that debate performance hence the reason why kamla Harris wants another debate perform or another debate after this one because it could bleed more voters but this number here so so you got to look at it if KLA Harris bled 1% in Donald Trump bled 3% that's a 2% gain and when we're talking about very very close margins that 2% matters and really in the post debate uh polls we are seeing those about 2% morning counil had a poll we are seeing those 2% changes so this is actually quite interesting now there are some questions I think are very very important they didn't ask some which I would have liked like who do you think the better leader is and stuff like that they didn't really ask a lot of those uh but there was one that they had and it's right here understanding problems facing people like you so they asked all of the voters do you think that KLA Harris or Donald Trump is better and they just they didn't they didn't look at them individually they just kind of had them in a matchup here right so before the debate K Harris had 39% of people thinking that they you know she supports people like them or understands their problems and with Donald Trump at 43% after the debate that number flips now KLA Harris is at 44% and Donald Trump at 40 so this was I think this is this is part of what we're going to see in a second here which can be the Earth shattering number this number right here shows people you know kamla Harris cares for you kamla Harris wants to help you kamla Harris is there to uh improve your life she went up he went down let's go to the next cross tab because honestly if this cross tab changes the election changes drastically if this next cross tab changes we aren't talking about a close election we're talking about a blowout and I mean I guess it not 1984 1964 1972 blowout I think we're out of those days but are we talk about 2008 maybe I mean I don't think Kam Harris is going to pick up Indiana but you know we're talking about all those States North Carolina Georgia Arizona Nevada uh we're talking about Pennsylvania we're talking about all them going blue so let's go look at the next cross tab that just blew my mind when I saw it now it's that same cross tab I talked about before but it's of Voters who make under $50,000 a year let's look at this so if you look at before the debate only 36% of Americans or registered voters in this poll thought that K Harris was best to understand the problems of people with Donald Trump being 43% that number flipped and actually expanded a little but kamla Harris now being at 46% and Donald Trump at 34% this can change everything because Donald Trump relies a lot on lower income voters and if all of a sudden this debate made it that they're noticing that there is this change and they're saying hm I like what KLA Harris says this can be Earth shattering this can be Earth moving this can change the you know everything in the election the question is can they make this become votes this is the problem that Democrats have and they always have they can start all of a sudden winning these metrics but then at the end of the day these people don't vote or they still vote for Donald Trump because he's going out there talking about how people are eating dogs and cats and pets right so in this poll I mean this number right here the Democrats now have the advantage look at what you did in debate take those ideas run with them because if all of a sudden you're bringing down margins in places where incomes are $50,000 and lower you are taking a huge chunk out of Donald Trump's out of Donald Trump's votes a huge chunk this can be Earth shattering for the Democrats hopefully they can change it into votes we'll see but hopefully that's the case all right so let's look at the epsas poll real quick so we have the first question made me more hopeful about the future and we're only going to look at registered voters I don't care about the total number of adults if you're not a registered voter you can't vote in this election anyways unless you go register and the chances of you doing that are probably highly unlikely anyway K Harris 45% of registered voters about having more hope in the future now if we look it gave the impression of having higher moral Integrity kamla Harris at 50% with Donald Trump at 29 that's pretty pretty bad for Trump now the next question seemed like someone who would listen to me and understand my concerns again and we mentioned this in the CNN poll earlier kamla Harris dominating that group Independence dominating that group as as well very very strong for KLA Harris and another thing too in this that I think is really interesting when they say seem like would listen to me and understand my concern 22% of Republicans say none I I don't think either one of them would do that's a cop out because they don't want to say KLA Harris they're a republican okay so they just like saying I don't think either one of them would that is a pure copout because like if you look at Democrats it's only 9% right so that's starting to show a little bit of a in the armor from for the Republicans maybe let's keep going seem more like someone I would want to have a casual conversation with again kamla Harris 46% to 31 and again Republicans 24% of them are just like no I don't want to talk to either one of them whereas only 9% of Democrats right again this some Republicans there indefinitely independent she had 28% of Independence even though Kam Harris won these group of Voters you have a lot of people on the Republican side going I don't want to talk about Donald Trump right that's that's good for the Democrats okay here's the one next one who's the candidate that appeared more dignified 53% for Kam Harris to 26% for Donald Trump okay so now we found one where Donald Trump actually is in the lead right stumbled and didn't appear here sharp Donald Trump 49% Kam haris 22% okay and it'll be interesting like of Republicans yeah only 41% said um said kamla Harris was stumbling and all that there's your cop out of 38% because they knew he lost uh only only 6% of Democrats said KLA Harris and only 16% of independent said so so I guess that shows you who they thought the stumbling more on who was talking about eating dogs was now who won the debate here registered voters 50% for kamla Harris and 24% for Donald Trump and this goes with the CNN poll that it was 2:1 I mean the CNN poll was basically 2 to1 this when you take out none and skipped is 2 to one Democrats overwhelmingly thought that ker Harris won but only 53% of Republicans thought that he won and now this this comes to a bigger question which is will there be a segment of the Republicans that all of a sudden just say I'm not going to vote this election I really don't care who wins because see that's where the Democrats were a few months ago I don't care who wins that Republicans might be falling into that trap now if all of a sudden you're looking at 31% saying ah neither one of them won when there was a clear winner okay you might have a lot of Republican staying home on Election Day that just don't care they're like wow I watch that guy this is the first time I've really watched him he was talking about eating dogs and bacon and stuff like that I I don't I I I can't I can't go out and vote for him now this one's a very interesting one which of the following describes your opinion even if neither is exactly right Trump's verbal attacks on Harris made me 57% of people saying less likely to vote for Trump now of course Democrats are always going to say that but if you look at Independence 59% say they're less likely to vote for Trump because of his tax 21% of Republicans say that they're less likely to vote for Donald Trump because of his attacks on kamla Harris now if we look at the same thing when it comes to kamla Harris on Donald Trump we see that it pretty much goes the way it is Democrats are are um still less likely to vote for Trump Republicans are less likely to vote for Harris and this was 5050 and it probably is a split based on leaners um this this is exactly where it is so this shows that K Harris attacking Donald Trump really didn't have an impact at all um but com but Donald Trump attacking K Harris did have an impact but again the whole idea with this debate was just kind of throw debate at him let him destroy himself like she didn't even have to do anything she just let him destroy himself all right so that's all for today to me these polls show a momentous shift to the Democrats now the question is does this sustain does keep going U when kamla Harris became the nominee she got a bump that bump kept going uh the convention bump which was only a tiny bit it still kind of kept going and since this debate we have seen two polls this ipsas one we also saw a poll from warning Council which now put the election outside as far as the popular vote at the national level outside the margin of error it is now a five-point lead and is actually the biggest Divergence between the two candidates since KLA Harris was in the race in the morning Council poll so we need to see if this sustains but there are so many opportunities for the Democrats right now to solidify this thing to to just bring it home okay and there's 50 some days left they need to just bring it home they they have everything they need it would be great if they could have another debate and just take a little bit of a piece out of them but you know um John LoveIt from u p Safe America did make a point I think I think it was love it or or one of the other ones maybe it was John Ferro I'm not sure but they basically said you know maybe just go ahead have the one debate you're on top just go out while you're ahead that's possibly a good strategy too all right I just want to go over these cross tabs have a wonderful day wherever it is you are please join the channel if you enjoyed it go ahead and subscribe as well and thank you all very much have a wonderful day wherever it is you are bye-bye