Kansas State Insider Reveals SURPRISING Prediction on Tulane Matchup

all right welcome back college football addiction I have John Curts from the John CT show here on YouTube we're going to talk a little bit about this matchup this weekend with Kansas say and to Lane how you doing man hey I'm doing great TJ thanks for having me man better than I am right at a at a one and0 at a One Clip um all right we'll talk a little bit about um Tain and that matchup here in just a moment but just thoughts on the opening week for Kansas State um thought you know anything that that concerns you after week one you know it's sometimes hard to hard to take a lot away pending uh you know who the matchup is but just overall thoughts on uh a 35-point win against UT Martin yeah so they they were playing obviously FCS opponent I mean UT Martin's a back end of the top 25 FCS team that have won their league three years in a row so solid but certainly not North Dakota State South Dakota State some of the teams that we saw uh others in the Big 12 playing um pretty businesslike and it it really felt like K State treated it a lot like a preseason game um for starters the defense was dominant the only six points that they gave up were a couple of field goals after a fumbled kickoff return and uh Avery Johnson's one interception of the game that was a turnover so really you know if you give them a you know kind of a clean slate to work with the defense didn't allow any points they gave up under 40 rushing yards on 30 plus rushing attempts you know it was just over a yard per carry that they allowed so pretty dominant and that was kind of the expectation that the defense was going to be ahead of the offense there's a lot of Buzz about the defense coming out of fall camp and and how good they can really be and they did that even while being a little bit banged up at linebacker which I think they'll get um some help with that back on Saturday against two lane so that was the good special teams also scored for them got a block punt um the kicking situation which there was some concern about this year looked pretty good uh both kicking and punting in week one and obviously I'm avoiding the offense here and there's a there's a lot of hype about Avery Johnson and Company and for the most part the offense did fine uh it was just the passing game is is what needs some work uh clearly they could run the ball DJ giddens who's one of the best running backs in the country went over a 100 yards he just did DJ giddens things looked like himself a a pretty new offensive line um where they lost a lot last year was actually really impressive to me but it just seemed like Avery Johnson a lot of times was locking in on his first read not getting through the rest of the reads missed some open receivers when he ran the offense looked great but they did not do that very much in fact he only had one actual designed quarterback run so that that was a part of it if they wanted to really get out and score they could have done it with his legs I think it's clear like they know they're going to have to throw the ball better uh than they did on Saturday to actually win at the clip that they want to this year so that's that's kind of the concern coming out of the game I think for K State fans is like hey everything looked pretty good and like it should and Avery Johnson has a world of talent and has great arm Talent uh it's just going to take some time probably as a as a true sophomore for him to develop some consistency there in the passing game so you get two lane this week um double digigit favorite ESPN's fpi which I don't necessarily think is the end all Beall but just from another point of reference says you guys have about a 55% chance of of winning that game um so not as friendly as Vegas um they're based on the advanced analytics the metrics they also played Southeast Louisiana or something like not not you know again how it almost reminds me of like you know having the Southeast there not to if we have any Southeast Louisiana fans tune in I'm very sorry um but it almost reminded me of playing the video game and it's like FCS Southeast yeah I was like yeah that is it so um but gota gotta go and play tane um what is it about Tane that probably gives you the most uh we'll start more positive where do you think they can take advantage of what's the matchup that you feel like Kansas state has a has a has an edge in there yeah I really like the the matchup that K State will have with its defense against the tlane offense they you know they scored 50 plus points against Southeast Louisiana but they only had 13 offensively in the in the first half they got a pick six right at the end of the first half that uh made the score look a little better at halftime and then they started to get rolling in the second half but uh Ty Thorton who's a an Oregon transfers who a lot of people thought was going to win that quarterback job and and I think has the most upside there but he didn't he got beat out uh for the starting quarterback job by a guy who's much less heralded and still pretty young so I think K State's defense which got a ton of pressure on the quarterback on Saturday in the opener against UT Martin um should be able to te off get some pressure and and probably Force some turnovers so I think that's where I really think K State will be able to uh control the game I don't expect Tain to really be able to move the ball very well I mean the pass rush last year was not great for K State but they they have a lot of young Talent that's been coming up in the program kind of ready to unleash that this year and we saw one of those guys Toby osami have a one and a half sacks and he had another one literally in his grasp let it go away it would have been two and a half sacks and he had six pressures on uh on 10 snaps so he's a guy that can really get after it as a pass rushing specialist I think they'll they'll kind of unleash him and Desmond Perell linebacker flying all over the field and the secondary is probably the strength of the defense so I don't think tan is going to have a very easy time scoring much I think as long as Kate can manufacture a couple of scoring drives from their offense they they probably will be okay here but it is interesting you bring up the the numbers because I've seen a lot of variants there you know I've seen some people looking at it saying hey my model actually has this as more like K State by two touchdowns so they're pretty enticed by seeing the line anywhere from minus 8 to minus1 whereas I thought you know when we went into this week I was like man I feel like two Lane's probably going to be like a popular uh upset pick here but um I don't know so there there really does seem to be like about a touchdown variance between people different people's models and and spreads um like fbii which is about as high as anybody on on two lane out there and Kelly Ford I know who's a guy a lot of people follow his model after last week actually knocked it down from like a 70% K State win to like 58% so there are a couple there that are that are starting to feel the Green Wave a little bit more yeah and it's so hard man early in the year to accurately handicap this stuff you know and and accurately like try and find the money on either side and and you know obviously tan had a good year last year they were in contention there late for for possibly making the the new year six but uh yeah just not um yeah it it's tough to it's tough to know is your big you talked about the the passing game is that your concern this week what are your thoughts on uh two lanes D defense Kansas State being able to move the ball there yeah I would say so you know I mean I think for K State fans the the two talking points really this week are yeah like hey we got to get The Passing game going more um I think the good news is it seemed like receivers were getting open for the most part whereas in the past you know I mean K State's receiving core has not been the strength of the team you think of K State you think of them running the ball generally now they had a pretty good receiving CP a couple years ago when they won the Big 12 but for the most part since Tyle Lockett left in 2014 it's always left something to be desired so I think there's a natural inclination for the fans to be like oh man like is the receiver room just not good enough again I think they do have some Talent there and I think guys were getting open which is a problem I would rather have as opposed to the the opposite there where the quarterback's just looking around like hey man no one's getting open because I think you can develop that I think you can get better with that I think you can get back in the film room and be okay uh the other thing honestly is just a little bit of Trauma from a couple of years ago um I mentioned that team that won the Big 12 K State played to Lane two years ago when Willie Fritz was still the coach and they got beat in Manhattan the year that they won the Big 12 uh by two lane and that was a really rough game they were still playing Adrien Martinez at quarterback at that point and speaking of passing game struggles they could not throw the ball well at all throughout that game and it was a really disappointing loss now it looked a lot better by the end of the year because Tain went to the cotton bow and beat USC so that was actually a pretty pretty salty tolane team I don't know that this team is that in fact listening listening to head coach John sumerall uh talk at his press conference this week he basically said the same thing like if we play like we did on Saturday in our opener we're going to get drilled um so I think he doesn't feel like they're there yet either but sumerall is a really good coach and another weird Connection in all this he was the coach at Troy who Kate played last year so they they do have some familiarity there um K State won that game rather easily but got pushed a bit in the first half um so these these two teams are fairly familiar with each other from a bunch of different angles which does add add some Intrigue to the matchup um playing this on the road you know I don't know that this is going to be like an insane environment to go into you know for just being honest but playing this on the road and then having a massive game what if you win should be a ranked on ranked matchup um against Arizona in just six days do you worry about the look ahead do you worry about the Trap or maybe losing a couple years ago kind of helps him avoid that or just any any thoughts and we may have to have you back next week because that should be another big matchup but just thoughts on playing a big one right after this FCS opponent yeah sorry group of group of five opponent not an I think you hit the nail on the head like it it helps a little bit actually I think that Kate lost that game a couple of years ago not that there are a ton of guys left around but there are a handful and and I think that will help kind of get everybody's attention there plus just I mean tain's been a good program the last few years with Willy Fritz like that's been a double digit win per year program that's had a lot of success and even this year I mean they're picked third in the the AAC preseason poll so I think they they have become enough of a program that they command some respect and yeah it is your first road trip I think that will will likely get guys attention I did see you know people talking on on Twitter today about the fact that there lot of empty seats remaining so I don't expect it to be a a super packed house or rockus environment but you do have to worry about I think like the the heat and humidity and what that can do and maybe utilize some some depth there go a little bit deeper with your rotations but in case they did a lot of that anyway in week one so I don't have a ton of concern about that and I I think they will be really up for the Arizona game honestly the one I worry about a little bit more is after that they have to go to BYU and that's in between games with Arizona and a road trip to Colorado which will obviously be a pretty high-profile matchup UPS just based on the caliber of opponents there so um I'm not totally worried I could be wrong but I think you will get a pretty focused effort out of them the other thing that helps too is I think especially the offense knows like hey we we could have been a lot sharper in week one we only scored 13 offensive points in the in the first half like we need to be better uh so I I think they'll be they'll be locked and ready to go do you have a uh do you have a lean on this do you have a score prediction just yet that you've done yeah I'm kind of hovering like right on what we've seen a lot of the the lines out there be I'm I think I predicted on our show 2717 um I expect it to be a a little more lowc scoring um I haven't actually looked at the over under so I guess you know my lean on that would definitely be toward the under I I think K State will win relatively comfortably but it will be at least a game where where two lanes going to be within Striking Distance and and Cas state may have to hold them off there but um I think there's a lot of I would just call it like cautious optimism the case States going to go in and and handle their their business right now honestly I I I sense a little bit less in terms of nerves from the fan base about this game than I did maybe like in the middle of July or August when people were talking about the schedule so um that's kind of where I'm at right now I think K State wins but I do think it will be relatively close yeah I I agree yeah you're just under there um over under 48 and a half is is what I found quickly so John where can people find you where can they follow you for not just K State not just Big 12 I need to do realignment but where where can folks find more your work yeah appreciate that uh on YouTube it's just John Curts j n k r TZ on YouTube if you want to check out the live shows on Wednesdays and Sundays uh and the other content that's there a lot of realignment and a lot of Big 12 uh just everything going on in college football if you're a big 12 fan check out my newsletter it's called open for busb newws docomo the threea podcast like EMA but with a three uh wherever it is that you find your podcast and you can follow me on Twitter JL Curts awesome thanks buddy I appreciate you no problem TJ anytime man