UF vs UM: Can the Gators OVERCOME THIS Miami STRENGTH?

this is probably the game outside of my team that I'm most excited about seeing this weekend and in fact I might even be more excited about this game than I am for my game because Florida State certainly just needs to take care of business on Monday night but on Saturday at 3:30 in the swamp the toughest place to play in America this weekend I'll say I typically have them number two uh behind LSU but I've got Florida and Miami and I'm going if you're going to be in the swamp hit me up let me know love to hang out love to see I'm wearing white I got the memo to wear white um Florida fans will get that joke Miami fans should get it too so uh Florida and Miami this is uh one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend and for different reasons this is not intriguing in the same way that LSU USC is or uh Notre Dame Texas A&M is this is two programs that man have had a lot of frustration these last couple of years and we've talked about this from every angle possible we we spoke with Manny Navaro the athletic we've spoken with Coach Coupe I know you guys love coach Coupe uh we spoke with Ali peak of of a peak inside Gator football and I you know we've we've talked about this from every possible angle that we could and I still don't know what's going to happen on Saturday there's been a lot made about quarterbacks there's been a lot made about the crowd there's been a lot made about uniforms there's been a lot made about the coaches and and everything else but there's one key to the game that people are talking about but I don't think they're talking about enough and we'll talk about that in just a moment but G haers and Kane's fans are absolutely frustrated and fed up with how the last couple of years have gone and they understand rebuilds they understand but the expectation that those places is to is to win they've won eight combined national championships they've won so many games they're both in my opinion top 15 programs of all time and the standard has not been met there the last few years Florida firing dad Mullen after a six and seven season um Florida then having a six and seven season and then a 5- seven season almost regret last year under Billy Napier and then with Miami you you felt a little bit better about the direction that Miami was going in year two under crystal ball when they beat A&M and they were playing well and then you have well you have the kneel down that everyone talks about and without that they're probably an eight and four team going into the bowl and and maybe that changes things and who plays and what bowl you get into and maybe they even win a ninth game in that bowl and so they're just one decision away from being better but can they get over that hump can they really show that true progression from year to year they went from five wins to seven wins and so that is something but it didn't feel like enough for Miami fans and this is the pro it year for Mario cryst ball and it gets started on Saturday at 3:30 in the swamp and I I think a game that certainly means more to the Gators I think it means a ton to Miami and I know we clowned Miami for being the offseason Champions and I know we clown Miami for uh you know celebrating in the offseason and then flopping in the regular season but it just feels different this year and I'm not a Miami fan by any means I'm not a Florida fan by any means and hopefully as somebody who wishes both teams could lose you can understand that I'm trying to be as objective as possible and I think I am pretty objective on this one if if you think my Florida State preview is going to be a little bit out in left field or a little bit biased I'll buy that right I'm wearing a Florida State shirt right now but I think I can be pretty unbiased when it comes to Florida and Miami and I can tell you I think this game means more for Billy Napier and more for the Gator Miami will have their chances later to pick up a lot of wins this season even their tough game at home against Florida State doesn't look as daunting now maybe Georgia Tech looks slightly tougher so you you trade those two but I think Miami's game come Miami season comes down to four games Florida Georgia Tech Florida State and Virginia Tech maybe you throw Louisville in there too um but I I'm I'm in Wai and see mode on if they can have as good of a year as they did last year Miami nearly beat them last season in 2023 I I think that this game means a little bit more for Napier it is really tough for me to see Florida making Bowl if they don't win this game I'm not saying that's impossible they could certainly beat UF they could certainly I expect them to beat Mississippi State I expect them to beat Samford and and UCF I think this is the year that they end the Kentucky curse um and they beat them and then they could they could certainly upset a Tennessee or upset an LSU or or beat a Florida State who didn't look great in week zero um so it's possible but your path to that bulll gets much tougher if you can't beat Miami who I think are is a similar program to most most of those other teams that we just mentioned Kentucky A&M Florida State LSU some of them have more Talent some less Talent than Miami but if you're not winning against Miami and the at home are you convinced that you go beat Florida State in in do are you convinced that you beat an LSU late in the year are you convinced that you can go to Knoxville and get a win or or that A&M comes to town and and you beat them right certainly Florida could win any of those games but I think your confidence in them being certainties or more likely than not certainly diminish it's hard to imagine that if Florida loses to Miami that they would beat any of Tennessee Georgia Old Miss Texas well there's four more losses immediately there and so you're looking at a five loss season and you pretty much have to be perfect outside of that you can't stumble anywhere in your 5050 games and so it becomes tough I think this game means a ton for both teams though when it comes to recruiting when it comes to Billy and Napier Billy Napier and Mario Chrystal ball selling their vision for what they think their program can be and will be I think this game means a ton for both teams there's been a lot made about quarterbacks and and I'll say it like this and don't don't attack me if you're on either side but when I look at the matchups in this game I look at quarterback and I think about quarterback as really a push right I think ward has a higher ceiling Ward can go out and win you this game not saying he will not saying he won't um but he could also go out and lose you the game nobody would be shocked if we get to the end of the stat line on Saturday night and we see that Ward had a couple of turnovers nobody would be shocked if we come out and we see that Ward threw for a lower completion percentage than merch did I know people say merch throws the ball short and I get that I I agree nobody's made more Graham merch jokes than I have over the last 16 18 months but I do think that mertz's floor is higher than Wards merch likely won't lose Florida this game he he had three interceptions last year two of those were tips off of an another guy's hand he may not be the most athletic he may not be the guy that's going to go out and win one for the Gipper but he certainly is a a quarterback who you know what you're going to get and I don't know that you know what you're going to get from cam Ward not in week one anyway not in the swamp if this game was down in Miami or if this game was uh not in the swamp then maybe I would give Ward the slight Edge I think I give merch the very slight Edge in this game alone I think Ward will have a better year I think Ward will get drafted higher I think he's got a much higher ceiling and I think Chris ball at the end of the day will get more out of Ward than Napier gets out of Merch this year however I think nap is going to get a lot out of Merz merch proved a lot of people wrong last year and this is year two in the system under Napier I think Merz is going to be really good I think he could be a top five quarterback in the SEC I think he might be close to that now in this game I give the slight slight Edge at quarterback to Florida it's very close for the season I'd give the edge to Miami but in this game alone Al lean merch just a tad Miami fans probably not going to like that trying to give you an unbiased take though again I I wish you could both lose I know that's not possible running back I think Montreal Johnson's a great player I do wonder if he's really a 100% or not how much he's going to be used how much of a decoy he is how much he can he can pivot and cut on that um repaired ankle repaired knee miniscus um no structural damage which is good but how much he can uh move and cut on on those um on that knee is important to me I think Miami's got the edge here at running back I think they're a little bit deeper I think that Davon Martinez is really good him even if you said that he and Mer he and Montreal were a wash I like Miami's running back room a little bit more um I like I like Trey Wilson a ton I think at wide receiver Florida has the best this is maybe the best way I could put it to to try and play a politician right Florida has the best wide receiver in the game with Trey Wilson I think he's the best wide receiver in the state I think they did a phenomenal job recruiting and getting him in and and now developing him Billy gonzalas has done great um but I think Miami has a better room right is that fair Florida with a better uh one player Miami better room overall I'd lean the canes there um offensive line This is Where I you know well maybe let's back up tight end I'd give a slight Edge to Miami here this one's pretty razor thin too so if you want to call it a push that's fine but I'd expect a Royo to have a little bit better game than Hayden or anybody over there on UF side or Royo needs to break out a little bit we talked with Manny Navaro about that wide receiver uh tight end offensive line I think this is the one that I'm pretty sure is Miami right this is kind of like the running back situation where Florida's got some good pieces I expect them to be better than last year but I really like this offensive line for Miami and I I think this is what's kind of the difference uh is the trenches right Miami almost has SEC level trenches and Florida I don't know if they do even being in the SEC now I think they're still really good I think Florida's trenches are fine if if they weren't in the SEC but I I don't know that they're good enough to compete with every other SEC team that's out there I'd love to be proven wrong on that I'd love to see this be more competitive but I think that Miami has got the clear Edge at offensive line napers even referenced some of the questions that they've got on the right side obviously Every Beat Rider on Florida side has talked about that and either Up played that or downplay that whatever but it's certainly a talking point and so we'll see kind of how it shakes out on Saturday afternoon defensive line again Edge probably going to Miami here now I do think Florida's defensive line is going to be better and I think they'll be improved and I like slackman a lot I I think it's big for Florida that that they've some guys returning but they've also had some injuries there on the defensive line that's a big that's a big issue I I think that's going to be trouble for them um and Miami's defensive line is is really good now I will say this one's not like a wide wide Gap i' I'd put Miami's ahead of Florida's it's not a push by any means I like Miami a little bit better but Florida is I think is going to surprise people I think it also matters who they're going up against Miami's defensive line gets to go up against what I think is a weaker offensive line for Florida and uh Florida's defensive line has to go up against what I I think is a tougher Miami offensive line so who's going to be better on Saturday well it's not just that Miami's defensive line is better which I think it is it's who they get to go up against and I think Florida's offensive line has a much or Florida's defensive line has a much tougher battle ahead of them because of who they're going up against so I'd give the edge here on defensive line to Miami linebacker closer I like Florida's uh additions at linebacker I like pup Howard coming home I I like uh I like that they get Shamar James back but I like you know Miami's linebackers are really good I go I think that's they have one of the better linebacker qus in the ACC in the country I think that I'd give the slight edge here to Miami that's not a runaway by any means I think Florida's linebackers are very very good and then at uh at uh defensive back i' this is where I'd go Florida and to me this is the key if Florida uh Florida's defensive backs are better miamis are certainly a concern they're starting some young guys will there be bust will there be kind of issues this is where it all kind of comes down to if merch has time I think he'll pick him apart I think merch will absolutely pick him apart Florida will score 28 plus and they'll be they'll have a great shot to win the game that all comes down to what I think is the most important matchup of the game I'll get to that in a minute do want to say special teams Florida's been a disaster the last two years they've put an emphasis on it coaching Miami's not been great and neither has Florida so I I think that that's something to watch out for how does Florida special teams look do they get 11 guys on the field every play that's not even a joke I'm not trolling like I that's something that they are focused on this year Mario hireing an end of game coordinator right like literally a guy to tell them when to kneel down take timeouts run the hurry up all those things this game is important these coaches understand their mistakes I you know you make all the jokes you want about them and and how their performances have been but they understand how big this is they understand how big this year is for both of them and they're doing everything they can to almost get out of their own ways right they've some sometimes Mario and Napier every Gator and Kane fan watching this and if you're a fan of another team I think you'd agree every you know that your coach has gotten in your way a couple of times over the last few years and dum D things and you uh Marios are maybe more glaring ne's probably had more of them but still they're doing everything they can in their power to adjust for that and so I I think special teams Miami's probably got a slight Edge coaching I think I like Miami's defensive coordinator probably the best out of the out of the four coordinators um Mario Napier I I I don't know there's a massive Edge there on on game day you know Napier does a pretty good job offensive play calling so maybe I'd lean him just a little bit but I think coaching is pretty much a tossup uh the biggest matchup of the game what I don't think enough people are talking about is um Florida's um offensive line and Miami's defensive line that to me you can talk about the crowd you can talk about merch you can talk about Ward you can talk about Neil down you can talk about special teams you can talk about Napier chryst ball whatever none of that matters it matters so I'll back off that statement but none of it matters as much as those two units can Florida's offensive line hold Miami's defensive line back because I think that Florida's biggest question mark is their offensive line and one of Miami's biggest confidence is is their defensive line and so if Florida can give Merz time I think Florida has a great chance to win the game that is Florida's path to Victory is for them to protect Graham Merz and give him time I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball super effectively I do believe that Napier will try to be balanced um but I don't think they'll have a ton of success running the ball I I like that Miami front I like their linebackers I like their defensive coordinator I think that they're going to shut down the run and if they do and Florida has to pass the ball I don't think they pass the ball 35 40 times or anything crazy like that but if Florida has to pass the ball do they give gram Merz enough time and I lean towards thinking that Miami has the advantage in those two situations I think Miami's receivers will do fine against Florida's DBS I think Florida's receivers will do fine against Miami's DBS I I I think that you're going to see a pretty even game but where I think it becomes uneven is Florida's o line and Miami's defensive line now I could be wrong on this and Florida's o line may come out and maybe Billy a has been smokees screening us and trying to get hype for this that and the who knows right I don't think that's the case I think the biggest question marks are on Florida's offensive line and so if I've got to pick this game which I'll do here in a little bit later toward the uh the live stream if I got to pick this game I think I'm leaning Miami because I think Miami wins that matchup to me the most important matchup of the weekend is Miami's defensive line Florida's offensive line I'd love to hear your thoughts on that if you're watching this if you're if you're uh whether live or on the clip later I'd love to hear your thoughts to me the biggest match up in the game is that the the front four of Miami the front five of Florida can gr merch check them into the right protections can the can the running backs effectively chip how's all of that going to work is Miami going to bring more into the box are they going to Blitz does the blitz pickup uh is that effective can can merch easily read his hot routes now I will say this Florida gets the ball out pretty quickly at times if they're able to do that it can sometimes mitigate that Rush from Miami but that's the biggest part of the game to me there's been a lot made about the swamp too and I want to talk about this and then we'll move on from this game and talk about another name Texas A&M but I I think the swamp is an important factor it's not the deciding factor in this game in my opinion now it could be right we've seen games at the swamp that you didn't think that the Gators were going to win they were an underdog and the swamp came alive and and they ended up taking the game uh you think about Tennessee last year you think about Utah the year before you think about Auburn back in 2019 I think it was uh you think about oh miss back in 2015 like these are games that Florida State wasn't necess I'm sorry Florida state Florida wasn't necessarily supposed to win but they found a way but it works the other way too Florida State you know what I was thinking about this game came in in 2015 and that's the largest crowd that has ever been recorded at the swamp and that was a 10 win Gator team coming into the game and the crowd was crazy I got there about Midway through the first quarter and the crowd was absolutely berserk where I parked two blocks from the stadium it was ITT it was almost hurting my ears walking up to the game let alone when I got into the game in the lower bowl and watched the game however the team wasn't very good and they could only muster two points in a blowout by the seminal and that took the crowd out of it and so here's how the crowd can make an impact the crowd can make an impact if Florida comes out and goes and scores a touchdown to start the game or gets a big stop to start the game or ward has a turnover to start the game if any of that happens the crowd will be fever pitch it will be deafening I think Florida's crowd is going to be the toughest crowd that any team has to play in this weekend obviously LSU is playing a neutral sight game out in Vegas and so I'd have Death Valley ahead if USC was going there but I think Florida's got the best crowd of anybody in the country this weekend when we ranked our toughest places to play on double fres no ST I'm not a gat I'm a gator hater but I I deal in facts I put the swamp number two behind Tiger Stadium in Death Valley and so I do think that Florida's got an advantage there however if Florida goes down 13 to6 or they go down uh 17 to3 or something like that the crowd is going going to be neutralized it just is I've seen it happen time and time again where that crowd gets taken out of the game I think Arkansas went up 14 nothing last year and I know that was a noon kick I know it was early the crowd just wasn't the same in that game that got lit late but that's how Arkansas was able to manage and able to play because they played with a lead for most of the day if Miami plays with a lead and a couple score lead I think that crowd gets neutralized if I'm Florida I don't know if I'm kicking off trying to say what if the defense can make it tough on W early or if I just want that extra possession if I want to get that ball at halftime but man if I'm Florida I'm thinking about taking that ball first I'm thinking about taking that ball first going and scoring and getting up Napier's good on scripted plays he is really good on scripted plays and they put points on Georgia early I'm taking the ball first if I'm Florida I know they like to score on both sides of the half I know they're not good in the middle eight but I'm taking the ball first of I'm Florida and I'm going down and scoring because they're good on scripted stuff they're very good there np's not a bad play caller as much as they want him to not be the OC I'm taking the ball first I'm going down and scoring and I'm putting cam Ward on the field with my team having a lead that's what I'm doing if I'm Florida now I don't get paid millions of dollars to make coaching decisions but that's what I'm doing and I think that could be effective and that is for as much as people have talked about the swamp this week that is how you use the swamp to your advantage I think Miami is going to be good on scripted stuff too and I don't trust trust Florida's defense as much I think they'll be improved so that's why I'm not kicking the ball first now you'd still be putting Ward up against it you you'd be putting Ward um you know in that crowd in that environment for the first time in a tie game but man if they go score you've neutralized that I would go score I'd make the crowd up seven nothing I'd make the crowd fever pitch the first time Ward touches the ball I'm I'm receiving the ball if I'm Florida this weekend they're not good in the middle I understand that maybe getting more possessions in the middle eight helps them but man you're going to have to get stops and scores no matter when they happen I want the ball first I want to go score nebor is really good scripted I think I'm taking the ball first if I'm Florida I want to hear your thoughts on this game I'm going to pick it here in just a few minutes but I want to hear your thoughts on the Florida Miami game hit the comments and let me know if you enjoyed this preview we did an episode this morning where we previewed every big college football game from this weekend you can click the video on the screen right now to see the rest of them we appreciate you guys for your support make sure you hit that subscribe button for college football addiction all year long