3 MUST Draft Players from JJ Zachariason | Fantasy Football

Intro there is so little fantasy football off season left and nailing your draft picks it is so important this is fantasy sanctuary I'm Tom Sten that's rich cooling we've been asking fantasy football experts for their favorite three draft picks in drafts and today we've got the man many associated with the pr late round QB JJ zachar JJ it has been a long and busy offseason pouring over the same data we've had since 2023 season ended how excited you to get something new some meaningful data in a couple of weeks time yeah that's a that's a really good point it's almost like uh you know whenever you're back in school and you were studying for a test and you're just like cramming all this information in and then you take the test and you get to see how you did and that's kind of what it's like with with fantasy football and football right where like all offseason we're cramming we're trying to figure out how to answer these things and the answer to these questions we're going to get a lot more wrong though in the fantasy football world than uh than we would get in in a regular test hopefully unless you were a pretty bad student I think that's a great Point rich like if you had one thing that you're most scared about getting wrong what is is it I think it's it's just accepting that you're going to get a lot wrong so don't get scared that you're going to get one thing wrong quite frankly because uh yeah you know you look back at any season by time week one week two had nine months of offseason takes it all goes out the window as soon as the uh the real NFL starts absolutely but the thing that we can promise on is that these free players are all going to be worth your time tonight we're going Jaylen Waddle - Miami Dolphins to start with Jaylen WD a player that I'm very high on he's going in a wide variety of spots across redraft on Underdog he goes at the 19th pick CBS 43rd ESPN 50th all across that range on different platforms he's said three 1,000 yard seasons and over a hundred Targets in each of his first three years in the NFL it just didn't really break right for him in 2023 JJ like are you supremely confident in Jaylen W like would you take him in every single draft if you could yeah I like him a lot and you you kind of mentioned that like we have kind of a stable for waddle that we can feel confident in from a projection standpoint and you know especially on like Underdog right now where you look at what happens at the start of the second round really that one two turn is when it starts to just get really ugly um and you could to me you could make the argument that waddle could be drafted at the one two turn with like a drake London type like what what is the the reason to have so much conviction about one of those guys over the other is the real point and Wadd will sometimes fall to the late second and you can get him uh in in that spot when to me you know the upside is is there for him just as much as there it is for for these other guys being drafted there you know one one of the the ADP trends that I found uh that I think is I mean is definitely uh worthwhile to to look at with a guy like Wadd you can you can throw Devonte Smith in there too but when you're looking at Team wide receiver twos who are being drafted as wide receiver twos so in that wide receiver 13 to 24 range the team wide receiver 2os so Jaylen wad Devonte Smith we've had other guys in the past we've actually had like 35 36 of them uh since 2014 team wide receiver 2os have actually outperformed wide receiver ones in the wide receiver two range when they're drafted in that range when I think that the narrative is actually the opposite the narrative is that you want to get a wide receiver one why would you take a team wide receiver to in that range when they obviously have a better wide receiver hypothetically being drafted ahead of them and so I think the reason we see what we see is because if you're a team wide receiver to being drafted that high more than likely You' you're a good player there's there's a talent profile that's really strong but also there's a contingent upside factor and with Jaylen Wadd even Devonte Smith but with Jaylen Wadd there's a contingent upside factor that I feel like has not been really pushed to the Forefront enough this offseason where if Tyreek Hill were to go down jayen wadt is a 30% Target share per week kind of player from a projection standpoint we would be looking at him being probably pretty comfortably in the top 12 at the position week in and week out Tyreek Hill were not in the picture and then you look at his peripherals last year you know he was still 94th and 92nd percentile in yards per route run and targets per route run it was really he he couldn't stay healthy that was his biggest issue last year if the health is there he's in one of the better offenses in football he's seen at least a 20% Target share per game every year of his NFL career to me he's just a very easy pick because you're drafting him around his projection maybe even a little bit lower than his projection but there is that upside that you can't always find with other players sort of in that range so I really like jayen wad in every format yeah Rich how often are you clicking Jaylen Wadd I mean for me this an easy one just because I just don't see the dolphins scoring as many rushing touchdowns as they did last year they it'll be more swinging back to the passing game as well are you aligned with myself and JJ on this one yeah I I love the auto pick and I love the value that you can get of him as you said in that second round I think to your point this offense is probably going to see some sort of change this year we talk about the high volume of Russian touchdowns but this offensive line was depleted last year it wasn't a good offensive line to begin with you've then lost pieces out I think you know just banking it in yes you know it is a fantastic rushing scheme but at some point that that that offensive line Talent has uh kind of got to affect that so we know that Tua has one of the well the fastest time to throw in the league yet still manages to push the ball down the field at a decent rate so to me that that's fantastic for a garl at WD who wins immediately off the line of scrimmage but we talked earlier about you know JJ saying he he struggled through 2023 in terms of the injury side I don't think we quite appreciate the volume of injuries that he had last year I've just got these are injuries that he appeared on the injury report for last year okay concussion missed a game he then had back soreness knee soreness bruised chest and a high ankle sprain that he missed the last two games of the regular season like that's one season he played through all nearly all of those injuries through the year like the fact that he put up the fantasy numbers he did with that cacophony of injuries is phenomenal and he still had really great numbers as JJ said this is a wide receiver two but he's getting you know Target per run numbers of most teams wide receiver ones like the you know not all wide receiver twos are created equal he's getting 26% targets per run number that that's a decent one receiver one number and you know we come back to one of my favorite stats year and year out is first down B Target he led the league in 2022 in what was a down year he was still 10th at 45% like I think he's phenomenal talent in a phenomenal offense and I think that this offense is going to take a change and shift that's going to benefit Jaylen W and as JJ said the contingent upside is absolutely massive like if Tyreek Hill who's injured at the moment with a hand injury if he was out for any long period of time Jaylen W's probably worth the top six pick yeah and when we heard Josh Norris on the channel talking about wide receivers he mentioned with Jaylen wad but he had 23 catches for 306 yards in all third and fourth quarters last year because the Dolphins they were just leading so often they could take their foot off the gas the defense it looks like it's going to take a step back we know they lost Aven Howard Christian Wilkins derome Baker Shaq Barrett who they signed this offseason retired not so long ago JJ how much do you weigh defense into an offensive projection yeah I I mean I I do uh I look more so though at uh just general win totals and over under to look at what game script might look like uh because that'll just tell you what game script might generally look like I will say with with numbers like that I think that they're really interesting to look at and analyze and we should be looking at it from like a regression standpoint for sure the only thing is that you know generally speaking when teams get into those really favorable game Scripts it's because the offense did something to begin with right so like yeah the production was there to some degree so I'm not dismissing it at all it's still a thing that we absolutely need to factor in but then there's that other side of like like because Baltimore is in a similar spot where Baltimore you know like their pass rate uh overexp expected was actually like above average in some places but it's at least like average right uh but but they but they at the same time uh Ran So Many plays while leading that their overall pass rate was really really low and so I think we should expect that to regress to some degree but then you also have to just factor in like okay like they they didn't run a lot of passing plays in the fourth quarter and stuff but number one they could still be pretty good this year right they're still going to see something there um but also does that end up meaning that they're not as good in quarters one through three you know so there's there's also that to factor in but yeah I mean I I look at all that stuff but at a baseline from like a projection standpoint I'm usually looking at like team win totals love it Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals hit the Subscribe button whilst you he people we've got DFS Dynasty redraft best ball content all year round multiple best ball drafts per week redraft content coming out of our ears closing in on 3,000 subscribers hit that subscribe button today Kyla Murray JJ your second pick this time a year ago there was so much ambiguity over Kyla Murray like was he even going to play in the season people were talking about if the Cardinals sucked to such a level that they got a really high draft pick would he be shipped out of town despite signing a new contract not too far behind that then he comes back from the ACL injur the miniscus injury averages 225 passing yards 30 rushing yards per game which was the sixth most among quarterbacks JJ I know you're high on Kyler Murray but like what's your kind of ceiling hope for Kyler Murray do you think top three maybe even QB one overall yeah I mean I think top three is definitely in his range of outcomes I my my general stance is that Murray should be drafted a lot closer to Anthony Richardson than he currently is being drafted um and the reason for that is you know coming off a major knee injury last year he's in a new offense he steps in and he averages 18.3 points per game someone will say 18.3 is nothing special I mean it's kind of around where like Brock pie was last year uh you know in a in a in an MVP season or MVP like season for pie um and and the reason for that was not because of of Kyler's passing he had a 3.7% touchdown rate his yards per attempt was below seven last year the reason for that was because of his rushing and we should ask ourselves should we expect the exact same type of performance from Kyler next year or this year when uh when you get upgraded weapons you get Marvin Harrison Jr obviously added to that mix uh you get another year in that offense and you're now further away from that injury as you noted and to me the answer is we should probably expect some sort of boost and the question would be okay what can we just generally expect well Kyler Murray if you if you if you separate points per game via rushing only Kyler Murray has seen 4. points per game via rushing every single year of his NFL career he's been over five in four of Five Seasons if you look at the 35 quarterback since 2011 who had 300 more pass attempts just to say that they were starters for most of the year who then hit five or more points per game on the ground of those 35 players the lowest scored 17.7 points per game 20 of the 35 hit 20 or more points per game so we're drafting Kyler Murray at sort of an expectation of 18 and a half to 19 fantasy points per game when we have better than 50-50 odds based on what he's done historically and what players have done historically who hit that five rushing points per game Mark have done and so to me when you factor in the offensive environment you know the the better weapons the another year in this offensive system again I I think that he really should be drafted a lot closer to Anthony Richardson than where he's being drafted now finally we've we're seeing the market sort of flip and say let's get Kyler Murray at least where CJ Stroud's going or sometimes above CJ strad I think that he definitely should be drafted above CJ strad and where you sort of get the question marks is with Anthony Richardson depending on how you view a guy like Richardson based on the upside and such that we saw last year so you know right now especially in like a home League or something uh I think he's just a smash of a value to me it's kind of like there's always like one obvious value every year it seems like with a mobile quarterback you know it was Jaylen Herz whenever he broke out Allen the year that he broke out Lamar Jackson year and I know I know I'm doing it in hindsight but there's always seems to be that one dude this year it very clearly looks like Kyler Murray yeah Rich over on these redraft platforms I mean on Underdog Kyler goes at 73 CBS ESPN he's going in the 70s as well on NFL he's going at pick 50 Yahoo he's going at pick 55 Rich are you still comfortable taking Kyler even that high I think it's it's all relative isn't it like yeah I'm I'm probably not comfortable taking K of 50th overall but when you take into account that's that's qb8 at 50th overall I'm probably a little bit more comfortable I think the way QBs are drafted on nfl.com is is different to basically any any real platform isn't it um so yeah I I don't love drafting him that high but it's it's it's all relative depending on the platform you're playing on but I love this shout because I think that to agree with what JJ's saying he's he's such a screaming value it almost you're sort of almost having to Double Take and say like what what what am I missing here this is a guy since his rookie year he's finished fourth fourth seventh and Ninth in points per game and we're getting him at qb8 and that QB nth finish was because he was coming off the ACL injury and it's like so we're drafting a guy at his floor and he's got massive upside this is the best surrounding Talent he's had his entire career and I'm not just saying pure receivers I'm talking in terms of the play caller the offensive line the complimentary receiving weapons this is the best set he's had his entire career and yet we draft him at that floor I just think he's he's such a screaming value and yeah someone that I'm I'm trying to get as many shares of as I can and is such an easy player to stack with Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride it's um yeah it's almost makes too much sense to to avoid it yeah definitely and we we've gotten into the debate before about whether Malik Neighbors on Marvin Harrison is the better value when it comes to best ball drafts and even in some of these redraft leagues but if you're taking Marvin Harrison it's such a layup to take Kyler Murray because you're betting on the overall outcome of Marvin Harrison being good then it's going to mean that Kyla Murray more than likely has a good season as well and for me I just I can't ignore Kyler because of the Russian upside that you've both mentioned uh since the start of the 2018 season there's been 48 quarterbacks who've averaged five Rush attempts per game of those 48 64 % finished as a top 12 quarterback in points per game it's just it is a cheat code and you just have to get with the fact that fantasy football these days it absolutely favors the Russian quarterbacks and if you're going to lean towards the pocket passes they need to be the true Elite tier and hopefully add some kind of Rush attempts per game like Patrick Mahomes does who averages like 3.6 Rush attempts per game Jaleel McLaughlin - Denver Broncos moving on to the final pick from JJ the sleeper pick that we wanted Jalil mcclaflin and have the experts who I've spoke to so far who are coming on to this show there's been several of them who've kept mentioning this name JJ I know you've talked on your latest show about how important pass catching is for running backs in fantasy that it just sets a baseline that is very difficult for others to compete with is the receiving volume what's leading you towards Julio mclin yeah 100% uh if you look at the last uh decade plus so since 2011 and you look at Team running back Target shares and you look at the top 17 you could look at the top 20 I choose top 17 because that's where the cuto off would be for this specific statistic eight of the top 17 team running back Target share numbers have come from Shawn Payton Leed teams he has he this is what his offense does and this is not just a Alvin cimo focused statistic he's done this in multiple offenses with multiple running backs just last year the Denver Broncos backfield led the NFL on running back targets here I think that we're going to see that again when you look at or at least you know towards the top when you look at the pass catchers on in that offense you get a guy like cland Sutton who's a good not great player uh you know it's not like he's this Elite asset who's going to command a 27 28% Target share and then you have a bunch of dudes who we don't know exactly what we're getting from them uh including the tight end position um and then you know the backfield sure you can make the argument that of the guys back there and I wouldn't even disagree you know a guy like Javonte Williams probably has the most like Bellow upside just given his size given his Prospect profile and really what he's done already in the NFL and I'm not trying to sell Jalil mlin as someone who's going to be a top 10 top five running back in fantasy football necessarily I do think in a full PPR format or even a half PPR he can get close to that top 20 range for sure if things sort of break his way uh you know if he does see a 10 11 12% Target share last year he was by far uh the best running back in that backfield on a per touch basis even when you adjust for the types of fronts that he was seeing um so yeah he's an undersized back that uh is a little frightening to invest in but you're not having to invest a lot of capital in order to get him and I really think that this could be a situation where we see Jalil mlin sort of play that Darren sprouls role that we saw that we've seen in this Shawn Payton offense for years um you know to me I always think about running backs in particular it's easier with running backs as just where can I find some Arbitrage right like where you know I I really like Taj Spears this year for instance but realistically you know I remember having this conversation with Scott Connor actually a couple weeks ago at the at the fantasy football Expo and we were hanging out and and just chatting I was like yeah I really like Taj Spears for x y andz and he was like well why draft Taj Spears if you can just get like Austin Eckler who's kind of an Arbitrage on taj Spears and I was like well why draft Austin Eckler when you can just get Julio mlin right right so there's like this is the archetype that we're talking about at the end of the day right um and so you know of course I don't think that he's going to necessarily have the early down work to the degree that someone like Javon Williams will but uh you know we're we're speculating a little bit but I think it's logical to think that samj perine could be cut and if he does get cut uh then this is Jalil mcgloin's uh backfield as a receiver because gavon is more of an early down guy he's GNA see some work through the air and he saw a decent amount of work through the air last year audri ese is an early down Bruiser that's how he profiled as a prospect and they've even outwardly said that he's an early down guy I think that he kind of matches up in uh what would replace javante Williams a lot more as a as from an archetype standpoint than Jal mlin so yeah Jal could could see a lot of work through the air this year I'm really excited about it yeah and you mentioned that you're not investing a huge amount into him he goes no earlier than 145 across all platforms on NFL platform if you're playing there as my home League continues to do so he's available at pick 220 so absolutely worth scrolling down for Rich when you were putting together your rookie guide which if anyone wants a copy all we've got to do is hit the join button down below and they will get a free copy of 170 pages of great analysis on these rookies did you think it was just a layup that b knck would succeed in a Shawn pton offense because he would be checking down to VI's running backs like us I feel like that's a leading question um I think it depends what you're saying by uh succeed I think that bonix can be a a below average competent NFL starting quarterback that completes a high percentage of passes and has fantastic fancy numbers for a couple of options do I think he's going to be a you know an all proo a guy that's going to lead them to several playoff runs and uh and potentially you know win a title no absolutely not but bonick he's he's the most experienced NFL college quarterback we've ever seen um and he he does exactly what it says on the tin you know he is going to complete a high percentage of low a DOT passes you know so far through the two games in preseason he's attempting 70% of his passes less than 10 yards downfield that's fantastic for a guard like jul mlin like he's not going to push the ball massively downfield we've also seen so far in the preseason that J coffin's already started to work in in some pass Pro reps which okay part of that might be let's let's see how he gets his feet wet and see if he can cope but to me that's the big thing is if he's going to achieve that potential ceiling he needs to be at least competent in pass protection and because that's what Samar J py is probably one of the best in the league at and that's what's going to keep Samar JP potentially on this roster so if Jil mlin can can carve out that role and Ju Just Be competent he doesn't have to be good just be competent then that's going to be massive for his fantasy upside I like the pick I like the player you know you look at the underline stats it's all there my concern is is if this stays a three-headed backfield at the moment it's four but I think what we all think either peron's gonna go I know I floated out gavonte getting traded potentially if it stays as a three-headed backfield whether that's esy mcclaflin and then one of Pon o Davonte I'm nervous that there's not going to be enough volume in what's probably going to be a you know bottom five 10 off for mlin to be reliable enough for you to start him in a manage leagues I get it in best bow absolutely but in a manage leagues I feel like he's going to be slightly boom bust and you're never going to feel quite confident to kind of put him in that spot and and kind of roll with him yeah JJ like is this one of those players where you'd feel happy draft and in redraft but you feel like we'll get an answer quite quickly as to whether he's going to be worth keeping around on redraft leagues yeah 100% um and I definitely think that it is a better in best ball type investment just because you're not going to have to guess as to when some of these running backs might go off because he does have big playability you know like he has the ability to break a 60- yard touchdown and and uh score uh that way so I don't even disagree with the with the notion that in a managed League it might be a little bit more difficult but I do think that you know if things break his way like if they do get rid of s p Ryan that's going to trigger uh you know an obvious uh look towards mcgloin's way and that he could just be the receiving back out of that backfield and then like you said you know we're going to get week one week two we're going to see what these snap shares look like we're going to see what these backfield uh shares look like and that's going to give us more confidence or not you know with a guy like mfin and he's the kind of guy where if you don't see that volume early on it's not going to be that big of a deal to cut him mostly because uh you know you know that the ceiling is probably not really there in terms of him being like a top five top 10 guy it's not like you're cutting like brillan Allen or something and then the very next week you know Bree Hall goes down knock on wood and you know brillan Allen is all of a sudden a top 10 running back in fantasy football it's not like that so I I I think it's an easier you know player to cut if you are in a manag league yeah and one thing's for sure I think we can definitely choke up a lot of checkdowns from bonick last year Russell Wilson led the league with a 19% checkdown rate when kept clean that was 6% more than any other player and I wouldn't be surprised if bonix breaches the 20% Mark if you disagree with any of these players or if you just agree and find them very agreeable let us know in the comments all you've got to do subscribe leave a comment on any of our videos this summer and you will be entered into our summer giveaway for $0000 in Cold Hard Cash 12 months free membership to all our premium content and a $25 voucher for our merchandise store JJ anything in particular that the people need to be keeping an eye out from you at the minute um I mean I got Outro uh late lat round.com you can check out the late round draft guide that's for sale right now uh you can check out the late round podcast where I I speak a lot of this stuff that's in my brain uh but yeah other than that I'm on Twitter lat round QB uh but it was a pleasure guys [Music]