NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Showdown, Chiefs vs Ravens: FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Advice

what's up everybody after a long off season we are back with some NFL DFS picks and lineup advice for DraftKings and FanDuel this time first of the season for tonight's Thursday night Showdown week one season opener Showdown slate single game Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens welcome I'm Brian Jester co-founder here at occupy fantasy welcome back everyone all of you new viewers welcome we are glad to have you what we're going to do in this video and what we're going to do in these videos every single Prime Time Showdown slate during the week we're going to talk about the injuries that impact the DFS slate we will talk about low-risk lineup construction tips 50-50s double UPS head-to heads and then give you ideas and strategies and picks for the largest contest on DraftKings and FanDuel $1 million up top on DraftKings big prizes out there tonight and we're here to help you and if you're new or you maybe forgot who I am you may be wondering why should I listen to this guy what does this guy have over any of these other people on YouTube doing Showdown videos well if you play contests with I don't know 15 people I've won those in Showdown maybe a 100 people yep I've won those too what about 200 people oh yeah we've won those as well and if you're playing the biggest contest on DraftKings why not talk to someone and listen to someone who's done it solo million dollar top prize first person ever to win a million dollars solo on DraftKings Showdown contest so we got you here at occupy fantasy so strap in and let's talk about tonight's Chiefs and Ravens slate now let's start with lowris contest but before we do let's talk about the one injury that does impact the Slate that is Hollywood Brown free agent free agent acquisition for Kansas City coming over from Arizona formerly of Baltimore uh he hurt his shoulder in preseason he will miss tonight's game that leaves Rashi rice as the number one receiver for City it leaves their first round rookie Speedster Xavier worthy in the starting lineup and then they'll have some rotation but probably some combination of Justin Watson judu Smith Schuster Miko Harman and maybe Sky Moore uh to round out the rest of their starting receiver group so just Hollywood Brown that we're worried about uh he is out and uh it's kind of nice because now we don't have to sweat inactives on the very first Showdown slate of the year we have 17 plus weeks of that to do that so uh tonight we can put our lineups in pretty early and I have to worry about what happens later before the game starts all right now let's talk about these low-risk contests 50-50s double UPS head-to heads it's where you have to beat half the field to double your money very low risk uh but it has gotten tougher over the years for Showdown contest let's start on DraftKings and a quick refresher for those of you who uh maybe have forgotten haven't played Showdown contest in a in a in a year uh in our estimation our strategy at occupy fantasy is in Showdown contest lowrisk lineups we want to try to capture all the scoring and by doing that we play both quarterbacks both running backs that way whenever a touchdown is scored in a game we have that in our lineup but it can be tricky for some slates H and tonight it is one of those slates where it is tricky if we try to do that and we play Patrick Mahomes Lamar Jackson now remember uh Derrick Henry has come over from the Titans he has joined the Ravens and will be their lead back let's try to get this in the flex and then Isaiah Pacho the lead back for Kansas City that leaves just $2,800 per player even if we switch it up and we play PCO at Captain 3,300 per player we're generally not looking to punt two spots in our Showdown lineups whether that's DraftKings or FanDuel it's really not the way you want to go not to mention we already talked about Rashid rice as the number one receiver generally number one receivers especially of uh those who are catching passes from Patrick Mahomes are priced higher than $7,600 he's actually cheaper than Z flowers and as a result if you look at around industry projections Rashi rice is the best value on the Slate especially for the stud so at $7,600 a vast majority of opposing lowrisk lineups will include Rashi rice and we think that should be the case as well so in fact in order to fit in some players you can even Captain Rashi rice on DraftKings in your lowrisk lineups uh he'll be 20% plus in those contests at the captain spot as far as ownership goes and now you can fit in if we try to fit in the the core four of the two quarterbacks two running backs it looks like this Lamar Mahomes Henry Peko can't do that 600 per player so we have to leave one of these guys out and to me and uh projections say the same thing we're going to fade the running back who won't play much on passing downs and is the underdog in this game and is more expensive than the opposing running back so that's Derrick Henry and leave Derrick Henry out that leaves Peko and now we can punt one position and pay up for the second position and some punts that we like in the $1,500 to $33,000 range there are a couple that stand out one is Isaiah likely at $2,600 number two tight end for uh Baltimore we imagine they run more two tight end sets uh given How likely has performed when Andrews has been out in the past Andrews is in tonight but likely uh should get a decent amount of snaps we also have Justin Watson who we talked about and then samaj per who was signed very recently but is going to fill that Jerick McKinnon role of third down work uh splitting snaps some with Isaiah Pacho so either likely or perine let's just put perine in that leaves 5,400 per player we could play Rashad baitman or one of the kickers that's decent if we play Isaiah likely let's go down that could leave us let's not do that actually let's put in uh PCO as we wanted to 5800 we could fit in Xavier worthy if we wanted to do that uh or if you wanted to Captain momes or Lamar and as the favorite we prefer Mahomes tonight and let's put Rashi rice in the flex 4,400 with with likely we could play Jus till we could play a defense uh we could play Justin Watson so there are some options tonight it's not the best low-risk slate but the keys are playing Mahomes Lamar and this is on DraftKings Rashi rice Isaiah Pacho figure out which punt you want to use of that remaining group and then fill out with a mider player and you can even work it some especially if you go a little bit lower which we would not recommend but you could go down to someone like gu guu who's going to play some uh or one of these other $200 players and you could pay up for a a fourth stud that's possible as as well now if we look on FanDuel if we tried to do our approach and sometimes we can do this we absolutely cannot do it on FanDuel tonight that leaves us negative $1,500 for our last spot and so what you have to do on FanDuel tonight and again we're recommending skipping lowris contest on FanDuel there are plenty of slates in the future we can play but either one of two things you have to do in 50-50s double UPS head to heads on FanDuel tonight for um for this game is either fade both running backs we play both quarterbacks it gives us extreme High floor and ceiling that leaves us 8,500 per player we can make that work or we fade one of the quarterbacks and play one of the running backs or both the running backs if we fade Lamar let's just say it's very scary to do but we play Derrick Henry Isaiah Pacho 7750 per player we can make that work so yes it is scary to do that but that is what you have to do and that's why it is not a very good lowrisk slate slate on really on either site but especially on FanDuel tonight so either fade one of the quarterbacks or fade both of the running backs uh neither are that preferable tonight all right now what everyone is here for high-risk contests leagues satellites gpps you risk a little bit to potentially win a lot exponential payouts that is what high-risk contests are they can span anywhere from 20 people uh to how many people are in this contest tonight 196,000 people and in our daily plug occupy fantasy.com I'll pull it up for you really quickly we give you rankings for different contest types in our daily plug and then we give you lineup strategy for different contest types for both sites so no matter how big the contest is and what type of contest is we got you covered in the daily plug so make sure you go check that out after this video it is already posted for tonight's slate uh but if we talk about small field contest 4 we're thinking 200 players or less we don't have to get two different we just need one point of differentiation so in these contests we could play it sort of like a low-risk lineup uh and just switch out one player who's low owned if we bring up our occupy model occupy fantasy.com ranks every player for fanone draft Kings for Showdown slates with projected ownership for the prime time slate so that's Thursday it will be Friday this week uh Sunday night and Monday Night Football and we're just looking for one player that's less than 20% owned for our smaller contest we can easily do that and if we look at uh our occupy model you'll see some guys are 0% owned we're looking at the DK percentage column here this is their projected Flex ownership we'll see some guys like Carson steel Jared Wy these guys are pure trash plays large field contests only we're not going to play those in our small field lineups uh but if we look at let's look at DK percentage 5% or higher and we look down to let's say 22% the kickers pop towards the top that is very understanding it's a very uh loose salary slate you can fit in most players without having to resort to playing kickers or defenses now I still think because these guys are name brand Bucker and Tucker they'll probably still get over that 20% Mark and maybe they'll get there in small field gpps as well but they're very good plays tonight especially in smaller contests especially what we've seen from kickers in historical small field Showdown contest but we look at other guys who are less than 20% owned samj perine Rashad baitman Isaiah likeley who we talked about uh Noah gray backup tight end $1,600 he'll see a lot of snaps tonight in Ken City's offense Justice Hill not many people are going to play him as the number two running back at $4,400 on DraftKings uh and Nelson agar in addition to the defenses so all you have to do is play one of these guys in your small field gpps uh and you are different and you could do pretty much what else whatever else you want with the rest of the lineup uh and you'll have a differentiated good high floor High cealing lineup I would say of this group I really like know our staff likes Rashad baitman our model likes them as the top receiver after samaj perine and the kickers uh Rashad bitman number two receiver didn't play in preseason cemented as a number two receiver in Baltimore's offense yes a little bit tough match up with Ken City's corners but in a game where they likely will be Trent at some point have to keep up uh baitman is an excellent play we haven't at less than 20% owned uh and P Ry we'll see how how highly owned he gets if optimizers and Sims are pushing him out he may end up as the popular value play tonight we'll keep an eye on that and we'll update the daily plug if so uh but Justice Hill another one if you expect Baltimore to Trail in this game Hill to play more third down snaps and more hurry up offense he's an easy play at $4,400 that's going to be sub 10% own so you really don't have to get much different after that either uh and one other note tonight let's go back to uh the DraftKings lineup screen here as I said pricing is pretty loose so typically you're not looking to spend or leave a few hundred bucks or more left over in your small field gpp lineups or your lowrisk lineups but you might do that tonight because the pricing isn't as tight and so even if you leave 400600 $900 left over on the table do not worry about it tonight because pricing is pretty soft uh and that's just a function of how the salaries were published for this slate uh if we talk about FanDuel smallfield gpps really you're just playing m home or Lamar at MVP again 200 players or less we don't have to get that different we just need one low owned option those guys I just mentioned all fit the bill here on FanDuel as well play Mahomes or Lamar correlate appropriately get one lower owned guy in your Flex spots in your good goope now I know what most of you want to listen to this video for are the large field gpps where I won the million dollars where you could potentially win the million dollars tonight uh let's get a quick water break uh and then we'll talk about the highrisk large field contest selection still no still no water sponsor just yet I haven't tried very hard but if you guys know or if you're watching and you want to sponsor the water break let us know we'll have that every Showdown video uh so some high-risk strategies for the largest contest on fandu and DraftKings I think easily the number one answer tonight is playing for a lower scoring than expected game right no one wants to play the defenses if we go back to our occupy model we see Kansas City's def defense 17% projected ownership Ravens defense just 6% projected ownership anytime we play for lower scoring games is how I won the million in the Super Bowl a few years ago you play for games that are lower scoring than expected not only uh do you win more when you're right you split with less people and you have lower lower uh lower owned lineups that are correlated it's really nice to play for and honestly if you just play every single Showdown slate large field gpps and maybe even small field gpps you play for a lower scoring game including a defense uh You' probably be profitable at the end of the year if you just only did that for the entire season so uh maybe one of you out there can do a test run or a case study you know on if you played a defense and lower scoring uh game script for every Showdown slate do you come out ahead at the end of the year I think you would um so playing Chief's defense or Ravens defense and playing uh for a lower scoring game around that running back captains running back MVPs especially on FanDuel uh really good way to go about for the largest contest tonight especially when you consider Kansas City has a rookie left tackle that they're playing Baltimore lost three veteran offens lineman during the off season so some offensive line uh shakeups for both teams just gives more credibility to uh playing the defense and your lineups in the largest contest tonight and Baltimore didn't play all preseason we saw them start slow in the first half of the first game last year with a similar approach uh it's possible what happens again tonight especially on the road so defense is really good high-risk strategy tonight uh leave more salary on the table as I said it's already loose you can leave him even more than you normally would 1,000 plus 2,000 plus in some instances because you figure if you look down here it it may sound crazy from a median projection standpoint but how often does Xavier worthy the Speedster outscore Rashi rice so wory is 5,800 rice is$ 7,600 that's $1,800 difference how often does baitman 5200 outscore Z flowers 8,000 $2,800 difference it's not a 0% chance so even if you just swap down from rice or flowers to one of the the secondary receivers and leave a regular lineup around that that's really differentiated cuz not many people are going to do that so that is another uh another strategy here tonight uh next on both sites we expect the field to gravitate towards Kansas City heavy lineups and rightfully so given the spread and the pricing so that means on DraftKings we'll see a lot of Kan city captains and or 42 builds 51 builds where we have four Chiefs on lineup or five Chiefs on the lineup on FanDuel we'll see three Chiefs on the lineup or sometimes four Chiefs in a lineup primarily by the field what the field is not going to do is play Baltimore heavy lineups so four or five Ravens in a lineup three over on FanDuel so that's another easy way uh and what you can do is you can open our lineup Builder occupy fantasy.com lineup Builder I used every single Showdown slate no matter which type of contest I'm playing and you can set different rules what does it look like if I put a Max of Two Chiefs in a DraftKings lineup a Max of one Chief spit out lineups see what it looks like and you can take some of those or do the flip side what does it what does it look like if I play five Chiefs in every single lineup uh and you can get a great idea of the lineups that are possible when you use the rules in our lineup Builder same goes for the ownership in smallfield gpps a Max or Min of one of these guys under 20% what the lineups look like what are the possibilities so even if you're not building 20 plus lineups or 150 lineups the lineup Builder is still really uh profitable and a great tool even if you're only building one Showdown lineup so I encourage you to check it out if you haven't already um and finally a great way to get different in large field gpps is to play the trash Guys I like to call them uh no offense to them but the guys that 5% or less owned I'll give you a couple names that stand out I think the number one for me tonight is tylon Wallace will be the wide receiver four for Baltimore the coaches and reporters they really want this guy to be a thing uh and he'll mix in tonight he's clearly the wide receiver four on this team it's not the rookie devontes Walker it's tylon Wallace $1,400 all he needs is one catch maybe two and God forbid he catches a touchdown he's in the optimal lineup so I like playing tylon Wallace tonight he'll rotate some with Nelson agalar uh Carson steel if you played pre season DFS you definitely know the name Carson steel is 200 on DraftKings more of a DraftKings most of these guys are DraftKings plays um on FanDuel tylon Wallace some of the receivers are large field FanDuel plays uh but guys like Carson steel mostly a DraftKings play he could be the number two running back tonight it's more than likely going to be pery right everything we've read is perine but if per ry's not up to speed with the Playbook we doubt he he's not I'm sure he's going to be fine but if he's not or if God forbid P gets injured or P gets injured steel is the next guy in line yes he's listed as a fullback on the depth chart played exclusively at running back in the preseason uh so running back two three at M price tonight could do worse than that Patrick Ricard known for a rogue touchdown or a catch or two fullback for the Ravens he's $400 uh we talked about some of the rotational receivers for uh Kansas City mostly it's going to be on rashy rice and Xavier worthy Justin Watson will get some as well who we also like uh but Juju his snaps will be monitored but he knows the Playbook uh he's 1K on DraftKings Sky Moore $2,200 don't like him as much likely the wide receiver six but again it's the first week of the Season we could be very wrong about these backend rotations so Sky Moore one two% owned and Mico Harman Super Bowl her $1,800 will mix in as well so uh lots of ways to get different in large field contest tonight and yes it's 196,000 people to beat on DraftKings it is 132,000 people to beat on FanDuel but we can do it it's possible but I will say this it is the first slate of the first week of a long season manage your bankroll properly especially the F through the first couple of weeks As We Gather info on how these teams are using their players and running their offenses so I know we're all excited Let's uh let's just take a a step back let's play light tonight we got another slate tomorrow which I will be back for with a video make sure you're subscribed by the way here on YouTube uh it's free to do so I know many of you only watch free videos you're not ever going to subscribe to a site for information we understand that is why we do these videos for you click subscribe if you're a YouTube junkie like I am and you're always on YouTube this video when it's released for every Showdown slate uh during the week it'll pop up on your recommended page on YouTube uh but if you're not on YouTube very often click the Bell notification after subscribing that way whenever we post a video you'll get a notification directly to your phone that we' posted the video so just the best way to get notified when we post these videos so I'll have a video for tomorrow's Friday Showdown slate uh Chris our NFL manager will have a video for the main slate the classic slate on Sunday uh on Friday night and then I'll be back Monday for the Monday Night Football video we do not do Sunday Night Football videos I'm sorry but we do have a daily plug at occupy fantasy.com and on that note for those of you who want that extra Edge yeah you like listening to me every Showdown slate you like listening to Chris for the main slates but you want all the tools that we use you want the projections you want the lineup Builder you want the advice in the daily plugs again rankings and slate thoughts and lineup construction tips for different contests our projections these are very different than normal projections these are our proprietary projections for highrisk contests with projected ownership the Builder allows you to build to 300 lineups with optimal lineup criteria is a little as $7 a week occupy fantasy.com all the links are in the description the daily plug is up for tonight's slate so go check it out uh all right guys that'll do it let's get excited drop a comment for how excited you are tonight below let's see if we can get over I don't know 50 comments on tonight's video let's see if we can get 200 likes uh give us a thumbs up we appreciate that best way to support the channel uh and if you have any questions you can also comment below I'll monze the channel throughout the day but Discord is the best way occupy fantasy.com Discord is where I as long as the rest of the staff are in there throughout the day come sweat out the games with us chat with other members of the community get your questions answer occupy fantasy.com Discord link is in the description so Brian Jester acupat fantasy we're back good luck tonight and I'll see you tomorrow for Packers and Eagles