BMW Championship | DFS Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers - Fantasy Golf & DraftKings

Intro what's up guys Rick here with your DFS preview for this week's BMW Championship down to 50. no cut you're gonna have to roster over 10 percent of the field in every single one of your lineups I'll take you through a very interesting Golf Course using data and a little bit of course mapping we'll go through the field see if we can find any Trends what the numbers are telling us and see if we can put together some decent lineups and find some targets to play for this week without further Ado let's get into it we are headed back to Olympia Fields And if Course Preview you go to the course key stats model on rickrungood.com which you should well maybe not the course key stats model but you should go to rickrungood.com Giant database for golf betting and fantasy you will notice there's a message waiting for you because Olympia Fields has only been used one time uh 2020 was the only time that we've gone here so I can't run a regression model using one year of data it would just be a complete 100 percent um parallel to the results so that is pretty worthless so not going to be able to run a regression model just don't have the sample that's fine but I can show you a couple of other things we could talk through this golf course number one this was the fourth most difficult golf course on the schedule in 2020 it played very much like a major championship it's it's a big boy golf course if you look at the score card it's a par 70 7 300 yards both par fives are over 600 yards they're not gimmies that by any stretch of the imagination there is a 250 yard par three that's the eighth there's a 200 115 yard Par 3 that is the 16th and the rest of this course is going to be quite demanding off the tee this is uh my Google Earth instance for Olympia Fields And I I've started to show this recently and ask about the mapping um I got a lot of positive feedback on the course mapping that I do but I know for a lot of people it's like over their head or not over their head they just want to be that far into the into the Weeds on it so um here's what I'll do is I'll kind of keep it simple kind of keep it brief this is the overhead view of the North Course at Olympia Fields you're going to notice a couple of things first of all just look at the layout that is tree-lined Fairways um I'll show you the measurements but I can already see from here how narrow these Landing zones are the landing zones are mostly Fairway you do get obviously bunker you'll get a little bit of of rough but it's mostly Fairway and most of these Fairways are quite narrow we're talking talking about potentially you know 27 yards 25 yards wide that is uh quite small when it comes to PGA Tour standards okay so that's one thing I'll dive into a couple examples in a second number two here's your prevailing wind on the left-hand side it's a it's a southerly wind we'll see how that looks on on Wednesday but that's generally the prevailing wind the other thing to note is that there is a creek that runs throughout this golf course however I don't think it's super in play on a lot of holes so the trouble that you mostly see on golf courses with that have Creeks that run through it is when The Creeks run parallel to Fairways or alongside greens that is when you get into trouble this Butterfield Creek um and maybe this Creek sponsors the Bermuda Championship you know it just kind of cuts across Fairways cuts across you know 40 or 50 yards short of greens you kind of see it here in a couple of different spots I don't think it's particularly in play as much as like Southern Hills or Oak Hill or something like that but it is a water feature that is out there worth mentioning this golf course reminds me a lot of Oak Hill and the challenge that these guys are going to have off the tee so for example you know number one very long par five anytime you see these these crosses anytime you see those white lines going across the Fairway that's the 300 yard Mark and what you're going to notice is strategically what's there bunkers trouble um you'll often get overhanging trees number two here and a lot of these slight dog legs right these slight dog legs that ask you to shape it in some form or fashion because you've got um you know like these Landing areas like our number two here is effectively small it's only like 27 yards wide and it's effectively smaller because you've got to shape a shot into it right if you had a straight ball or a draw on number two you are effectively making your Landing Zone much smaller the other thing to consider here is um what was I going to say shot shaping oh so a lot of these bunkers you'll see it here they're kind of on the inside of the dog like for example here on number two which I love because it it will force golfers to you know they're gonna try to shape it around the dog leg it just brings in this trouble if you don't hit it perfectly it brings in this trouble it also makes it longer to carry if you're trying to fly everything so this is a really well designed golf course that is going to ask I believe for a lot of Talent off the tee um the other thing that I think is going to end up happening is that these Fairways are probably too narrow and it will depend a little bit on How firm and fast this golf course is so for example um we'll know you know we start getting reports from the course and we start hearing the pressers and we start looking at the weather and stuff like that there's a chance and already the fair the the hit Fairway percentage here in 2020 was very very low and when you get a situation like that it just instantly should flash you back to Winged Foot where if everyone is missing Fairways even the more accurate drivers of a golf ball on the planet uh it benefits the bombers right that's really the key and I have I I have a feeling that these uh Fairways especially if if we can get firm and fast conditions are going to be too narrow and this is going to be a golf course that rewards distance you know you think about who was in the mix in 2020 uh ROM beat just uh Dustin Johnson in a playoff I think Joaquin Neiman was there who's who's kind of sneaky long if you do want to see that actually I obviously have that information on rickrungood.com on the Holy Grail so if you go by course and just do Olympia Fields you'll be able to find it um yeah so it was you know ROM for guys in this view actually let's check out get rid of guys in this field ROM DJ Neiman Hideki female Coke rack all very long drivers Fitzpatrick uh he is accurate Munoz who's a great driver of the ball brand Brendan Todd accurate so you've got to kind of be Mackenzie Hughes is up there as well Brian Harman so you kind of have to be an extreme you better be extremely long or you better be extremely accurate it actually is very similar to what we just saw at Royal Liverpool long and straight was really long or straight which I believe is also going to be the key around here for different reasons right those were pop bunkers this is thick rough with um overhanging trees it's a really this looks like a really great golf course I remember in 2020 really enjoying it the the satellite imagery and just kind of looking through it makes me even more excited about it um but I think it's going to take a a a pretty decent driver of the ball and then you're gonna end up getting a a large range of yardages into a lot of these holes so I don't think you could just say okay it's driver wedge driver wedge I don't think that's going to be happening I think you're going to hit a lot of different clubs in your bag so it should be a pretty true test of golf um if you want to see these holes like in more fly over uh conditions there is a really good every hole has Drone footage on Olympia Fields website so kudos to them for going through and putting this out there so you can go through every hole and see the Drone footage um really really well done stuff here and as far as I can tell based on the scorecard and based on what we have here on the website they are playing it in the regular routing so number one for the members is number one for John ROM and Company when they get to Olympia Fields based on the uh scorecard so this is a really good resource highly encourage you to check it out overall I think you need to be long or be very accurate have a good uh approach play and be good in tough conditions we'll we'll model that out in just a little bit but let's go look at the cheat sheet and see what the prices are for these golfers a big range of 10K Range golfers at ten thousand dollars or more seven of them Rory McIlroy 12-1 Scotty shuffler 11 6 John ROM 11-2 can't like 10-5 hovland 10-3 Xander 10-1 Jordan Spieth at ten thousand dollars um okay we've got a lot to look at here so let's jump right on into this if we are talking about Oak Hill if we were talking about Winged Foot if we are talking about be crazy long or crazy accurate twelve thousand one hundred dollars for Rory McIlroy is pretty enticing for the first time that I can remember uh Scotty Scheffler is no longer the best player in the field over the last 36 rounds that's kind of my default 36 rounds are really predictive really good sample size and for the first time I don't so in months Scotty Scheffler is not the number one golfer now Rory McIlroy is both are outstanding right 2.58 for Rory to 2.54 for Scotty Chef there's only four golfers in this field over two strokes per round so don't get me wrong but worth noting that Rory is now the biggest dog in this field and if you look at his individual results here uh Tita green is insane the ball striking is nuts he's gained let's see last seven Events off the tee four four five zero eight six four that's nuts last five weeks on approach he's gained what is that 10 25 Strokes on approach in his last five starts around the green is generally a positive and the putter even though he has been tinkering has gained him Strokes in eight straight events so I think this is as you can imagine pretty darn good setup for him finish T12 here uh in 2020 his BMW Championship history is pristine you're not going to find much better um I think Rory McIlroy is objectively the best player in the field I don't think it is for this week I don't think it is a huge gap obviously but that that's pretty special stuff that we're seeing from Roy right now Scotty Scheffler is still very much in the conversation but you are starting to see how the math problem adjusts here so for about a year Scotty Scheffler has been able to out hit a pretty poor putter by being historically great from T to degree and one of the questions that we always kept asking was how long can he be historically great tea to green and when he is no longer historically great from Tita green what happens well we might just might don't get me wrong it's awesome might be starting to see the initial signs of that so he gains 10 and a half Strokes from T to Green at Royal Liverpool and finish his 23rd because the putter in the short game was horrible TPC Southwind the putter was still bad loses three Strokes putting there using the new um using the new spider that the Prototype but he only gains three and a half from T to green and that's when you start to run into a problem if he's not gonna be historically great from T to Green the math stops adding up okay uh the other thing that I do want to point out because I do think it's worth showing is a lot of those losses with the putter were just one round he actually gained uh 0.3 on Thursday one and a half on Friday he lost 4.4 on Saturday the third worst putting round of his career and then he was basically zero on Sunday so you could the counter argument would be that the putter was not nearly as bad as these stats indicate the new putter I'm referring to but the truth of the matter is is T to greenplay was not as sharp either so I'll be very interested to see what the industry does with Scotty shuffler this week and we'll know a lot more with the projected ownership when we get to the live chat on on Wednesday 3 P.M Eastern Time Rick run good YouTube channel uh John ROM so John ROM got into a lot of trouble last week off the tee finding the water um which you know on gosh was it Thursday I think Thursday was like the worst driving performance of his career might have been Friday but it was just it was just really really bad stuff that is unlikely to happen again and it's also unlikely to happen at this golf course right I mean where he it would be very difficult for someone to lose four strokes off the tee this week because I don't see a lot of penalty Strokes coming from off the tee um now you can get into trouble you could play out of the rough all that fun stuff but I think this is probably a pretty decent buy Spot buy low spot on John ROM um you know the it didn't it didn't work out for him last week a couple bad swings he still finished 37th uh and I'm not too worried about it he won here the last time we played I think it's a decent spot for him the rest of this range uh I did want to point out what did I want to point out about Victor so uh Victor was awesome at Oak Hill right and did everything he needed to do for 70 holes or 69 holes to win a major championship fines you know that Fairway bunker on 16 embeds it in the face and that's all she wrote he's been great the other thing uh I don't have the full numbers in front of me actually I might as well just pull them up if I'm gonna do this there's a pretty strong case to be made that Victor hovland played well enough to win last week um he started out with a very um a two over 72 and then he got really hot on Friday he got really hot on Saturday punted away two strokes by making double on 18 and got hot at times on Sunday I mean He piled up birdies all that fun stuff he lost over the course of uh the week 3.6 Strokes to the field on 18 alone on the 18th hole alone he lost 3.6 Strokes to the field that's Insanity right I mean that that has probably never happened in his career over the course of of four rounds um four of it came off the tee just kept finding the water there 4.1 he lost off the T on 18 alone two on two on Thursday 1.3 on Saturday and one on Sunday so um that hole had his number again I don't necessarily see that happening again and Victor's playing some of the best golf that we that we have out here so very very bullish on him you know the rest of this what is the stat profile for Patrick Cantley look like what does it look like for Xander schafley what does it look like for Jordan Spieth let's take a peek we'll start with Spieth it was encouraging to see how accurate he was off the tee last week if he can continue to do that this week he'll be in good shape I don't like the fact that he's lost on approach in three out of his last four this this I think this T6 was propped up with a lot of Jordan Spieth magic right he had a couple of Chip ins that are just like uh yeah he chips in a lot more than everybody else but it's probably not going to be super sustainable uh Xander shawfully I do I think I do worry about a little bit his T to Green numbers and three of the last four have been basically tore average um he's probably not going to lose three off the tee at uh at Olympia Fields this week but the putter hasn't been as good the ball striking started and the around the green play has started to to wane a bit and I and I do think I should have mentioned this earlier you're going to miss a lot of fairies you're gonna miss a lot of greens I do think around the green plays is going to be pretty important this week which kind of leads me to Patrick can't lay I imagine he's going to be pretty popular I don't love that he has been propped up by three or more Strokes gained around the Green in his last four but I think you'll need it here this is the time of year he usually gets hot the off the tee play has been special I would like to see a better second column here on approach so I'm not super excited about all uh either of the any of these three guys but I think there's a pathway to can't lay unfortunately he's probably going to be pretty popular as the back-to-back uh defending champion of this event let's talk about the 9k range real quick before we do that hat tip to dice Hawk who won our little listener League contest last week where you choose the tiers of golfers this is very it's a lot more fun with the no cut because uh the I think the penalty for missing a cut is too big here I bubbled this 10 get paid I finished 11th which is very very annoying so congratulations dice Hawk um he got about 470 bucks the contest for the BMW Championship is already live oh and people are already getting into it so um check that out it's pretty top heavy payout again I think it's just fun that way also I have two NFL Survivor contests live on Splash one is a 15 entry one is a hundred dollar entry so that's gonna last the entire season this is kind of the whole point of doing some stuff on Splash is that we can do a lot of the fun stuff all in one place also I have a NFL Survivor video coming out probably this week hopefully on Thursday like we've done for March Madness in the past like what are some optimal ways to attack it with data and hopefully give yourself a best a better chance at it does the season start on September 7th that's my birthday um interesting okay back to a little bit of golf go sign up the links in the 9K Range description Lucas Glover back to back wins massive hat tip massive golf Clap the stat profile if you just erase everything before Canada he looks like one of the best players in the world doesn't he 12 Strokes gained from T to green and two of his last four the ball striking numbers are are always generally very good and then he adds a prolific putter now that he has that broomstick and I I think it's even more impressive to win The Wyndham Championship and then back it right up with another win at the FedEx St Jude did he get a little lucky sure you have to to win but he rolled in every clutch putt he needed on Sunday did exactly what he needed to do to come out Victorious he is believe it or not I think he sets up well for this place too right he is not long off the tee but he hits a ton of Fairways then he is one of the best approach players in the world right now with a above average around the green game and a good putter that that's all we can really ask for you know this is I honestly think he's playing with a little bit of house money he was 112th in the FedEx Cup standings before The Wyndham Championship and now he's third or fourth I think he's fourth I mean no one expects him to do anything this is this is he is playing with house money fourth sixth fifth Miss cut win win for Lucas Glover how does it compare to his peers last 36 rounds which is still a bigger time frame than probably the good stretch that he's in he's the 10th best player in this field you know he's been better than Russell Henley he's been better than Windham Clark and Emiliano Grillo and Colin murakau and all these other guys he's gaining 1.5 Strokes to the field in that time frame and he's doing it he's like the third best ball striker in this field in the last 36 and he's a zero putter really really special stuff and and honestly as far as golf courses go this is probably one of the better spots for him which is which is absolutely nuts to think about um I'm still very much in on column morikawa here right the same thing that I said last week still applies um that the stats are not as bad as he wants you to believe or anybody wants you to believe a t13 he is going to try he will have to do this via the accuracy method right so can he play out of the Fairway significantly more often than everybody else well he does on average uh and if he can if he can get you know two or three more Fairway looks per round compared to the field that's his path that is his path to the top of the board so um I still believe lots of wins are are coming for Colin and it's just been a little bit of lack of of wind luck um to not have that happen already I also fancy kind of the middle of this range here Max Homa Hideki Matsuyama sung JM right so Homa we've we've tracked this a lot 21st 12th 10th and 6th in his last four just keeps getting better uh the well-rounded game I worry a little bit about his accuracy off the tee but uh I'm not super super concerned about it Hideki I think also just is is generally always overlooked he's coming off the 16th he's got uh he finished third here in 2020. he's playing a lot better golf sungjae is finally looking like Sunjai again I'll pull up his stat profile because this is this is something to finally be pretty excited about um so now his last two Wyndham Championship in the FedEx St Jude he's gone and gained at least two and a half Strokes off the tee in each one of those he gained two strokes on Approach at TPC Southwind the short game is is kind of stabilizing a little bit this this is a much more sungj-esque stat profile than we saw from him kind of in this Rocky range here where he missed the cut to 3M and he missed the cut the Scottish open and he missed the cut at the U.S open that was a little bit it wasn't horrible stuff it just wasn't true to sunjai's DNA and I think we're getting back to that which is really really exciting when he flushes it off the tee I mean the ball moves one in inch from left to right I think that there's a chance that he could he could really separate himself off the tee in uh at this golf course as we get to the 8K range a reminder that half of you watching this right now are not subscribed to the YouTube channel it would be very much appreciated if you hit the like button subscribe we can continue to build this we can do more cool stuff we get out to the golf course we can incorporate players more data more tools all that fun stuff it's free and I think you'll enjoy it the 8K range 8K Range Sam Burns that's me ducking right I get it I get it Sam Burr is finishing 52nd was poopy right not not very good um let's look at this round by round unfortunately we have to all relive this but let's look at it from round by round so remember that he tried a new putter on Thursday and Friday last week he went to the jail bird the the putter that um Ricky Fowler and Wyndham Clark have used successfully Sam Burns tried it it was a blacked out model it was not that black and white it was uh they took the paint off of it and he loses a stroke and a half putting on Thursday and Friday he goes back to his gamer on Saturday I don't know if it was like an adjustment period but it was even worse on Saturday the he finally gained Strokes putting on on on Sunday he over the last two rounds gained almost four and a half Strokes on approach yes he did make an ace which counts for almost two of that but that still means even if you remove that which I don't know why you would but let's just let's just remove it all of it not just you know one of it let's remove all of it um he gains a stroke and a half on approach on Friday and a stroke on Sunday I'm sorry Saturday and Sunday which would be great if you're getting a stroke per round for every round you're one of the best uh players in the world over the final over the weekend he had the one two three four fifth best Strokes gained over the weekend he gained as many strokes to the field as calamorakawa Hideki Matsuyama John ROM Max Homer Ricky Fowler all those guys I know it might be an illness at this point I might be sick in the head not the worst thing in the world he had one he had one really bad round and he's and he had like he had like two he had like two bad rounds I don't think I can kill him for that we knew he was going to be volatile right like that's what we knew I think I got to give him one more shot the not one more shot guy is Tony finau and I will listen if if I'm gonna if I'm gonna take the heat for Sam Birch which is rightfully so I will Pat myself on the back for Tony finau who I was very much not fooled by this 3M open t7 a place that he's always played well at not fooled at all and he goes out and has one of this might have been the worst putting performance of his career he loses eight Strokes putting was it is it actually his worst It's gotta be yeah it is the worst putting performance of his career last week which I would normally say he's due for a bounce back but look at how bad he's been with the putter he's lost multiple Strokes with the putter in nine of 12. this is the thing that we identified as being an issue and so so even if he even if he um even if he has negative regression progression back to what he's been doing over the last couple of months that's still not good he might lose three or four strokes with the flat stick and the rest of his game has not been strong enough to to out hit it the positive is that he finished fifth year in 2020 but boy I'm I'm I'm worried about this I'm worried about Tony Fina now he is 8 300. Russell Henley had the most quiet sixth place finish last week just I don't think I saw a single shoddy hit I don't think I heard a word about him he never went low in a single round he went 67 68 67 67. I worry that if he gets in the mix on Sunday something bad is going to happen I worry I worry in the same way that you do but this is a golfer who has been one of the better ball Strikers on tour since the PLAYERS Championship who has had a bunch of top 20 finishes and more recently significantly better than that played here in 2020 finished T25 lost three and a half Strokes off the tee probably hasn't had a that was that's he has not had an office heat performance that bad since since 2020 since that event um I want to pull up the power rankings here because last 36 rounds ball striking alone let's see Russell Henley is yeah between Hideki Matsuyama seps track and Corey Connors he's gaining 1.1 stroke ball striking 1.3 from T to Green so he'd actually jump just ahead of Hideki from T to green and he's a very good putter so last 36 10th best player in this field sorry 11th best player in this field and he's 8 200 dollars with an absolute quiet six last week we're in the sevens now but let's go to the trends tool here and see what we can 7K Range find so this is a way to look at golfers who are playing uh below or above their Baseline over any number of rounds that you want I mean we are in the playoffs we could shorten this up a little bit and just say the last 16 rounds and see what we find you'll find that Betty on is playing significantly over his head he's playing a stroke better than his own 100 round Baseline so it actually bumps him up to one of the better players in the field he's doing it half with off the tee and half with the putter that would be a little bit concerning but I will dive deeper into this I think he finished like 30 something last week 37th last week this is what I like about Ben op he is a monster off the tee monster off the tee his last four he's gained 15 Strokes in his last 12 rounds or last 16 rounds uh the approach can pop okay so let so he's so here's I mean his last four are lose five game five lose four gain three is around the green play is positive his putter is positive so what you're hoping for and I don't think it's that big of an ass because it is absolutely within his range of outcomes is that he drives it like he normally drives it you get one of the pop approach weeks he hits it around the green the way he normally hits it around the green and he puts the way he's been putting for the last couple of months that is not that big of a change he is he finished T12 here in 2020 so we've got a trending golfer we're in a good course fit uh playing good golf right now Benny on baby I think it's Benny on time and I don't those are words that have probably never come out of my mouth 7 500 bucks I like him as a player but I usually don't or I like him as a person I don't usually get a lot of Ben on exposure JT Poston also playing about a stroke above his own Baseline so so benon and JT Post in this range are playing almost identically over their own Baseline about 1.07 1.08 the way that poston's doing it though is approach play around the green and with the flat stick uh he's actually worse off the tee than his own 100 round Baseline but if you look at um you know you think when you think of JT Poston you generally think of an accurate accurate driver of the golf ball that's not super true 82nd and driving accuracy this season 111th and driving distance but he's been better on approach and he's just been generally very very good over as of late I I worry there's a path to him you know losing two or three Strokes off the tee uh and putting himself in some pretty big binds around Olympia Fields so I I do I do worry about that who else in the seven uh 7K range Taylor Moore but look at look at Taylor Moore's gains right this is super super concerning to me although I will pull up a stat profile because I do like him long term a stroke and a half over his own Baseline in the last 16 rounds um but almost all of it is the short game stuff and we've tracked him for a while where any of his good finishes were only coming in weeks that he gained like four or five Strokes with the putter now he did it again at Southwind he gained four and a half putting but he added a plus two on approach which is a little bit encouraging because if you go back to when he was playing his best and when he won an Innisbrook he was gaining two three four on approach every single week the ball striking numbers were a lot better I'm not willing to just yet you know anoint uh Taylor Moore the kind of the darling of the week I think that I like I can't wait for next season for him I think he's gonna have an awesome 2024 but this this to me still looks pretty concerning I think it's a pretty narrow path to the top Forum now if you flip this by salary you could actually see everybody in the 7K range and or in any range and how they pair up now most guys are playing over their Baseline which makes sense they've gotten to this point mostly because of good play recently so it shouldn't be a surprise in fact there's actually not a single golfer in the 7K range who was playing below his own Baseline that you're not going to see that in other ranges if it's Patrick's below his own females below his own um oh I'm sorry I was looking at the I was looking at the wrong thing here I was looking at Strokes game Trend but is there still anybody in the 7K who's below their Baseline uh there's two Justin Rose and see woo Kim apologies I was looking at the wrong one oh and sahith okay so there's actually three I'm an idiot but those are the guys that kind of worry me a bit right sahith talked about him a lot I think he I think it's just like he's been worn down he's played a lot of golf he had a great run he made all those cuts in a row and then like this is this is such a continually worrisome stat profile to lose multiple Strokes off the tee then you start to figure that out and you lose multiple Strokes on approach and he finished t13 last week which is great but it was one of his better putting weeks one of his better around the green weeks one of his better short game weeks of his career how many more of those does he have in him especially if you start spraying it around this place I think you're in trouble see Wu I saw went back to the short putter I don't know what he's planning on this week but um that broomstick it looks like he's lost a little bit of the touch and he went back to the shorty lost 2.8 Strokes putting he finished t16 if he can find a putter he'll be fine but man that's kind of uh a concern there anybody else I need to talk about I still think reload is interesting I think he continues to be interesting as long as he puts well the 6K wrench and 6K Range actually there is a 5K range this week which is pretty interesting there's uh five golfers in the 5K range 5500 to 5900. so the 6K range well we gotta find guys with some type of skill set what are they going to do well um I think there's two that kind of stand out to me let me start with somebody and again I hate to show this because Denny's had such a good year but the stat profile is horrid so you know I don't know what happened but at Royal Liverpool he loses 11 Strokes ball striking remember I was willing to write that off he loses six ball striking at Sedgefield very very concerning he loses another 2.7 at TPC Southwind but even worse he has the the by far the worst putting performance of his career loses five and a half Strokes putting it's the first time in his career he's lost Strokes in each of four rounds over the course of a single event that is now this is starting to shape up like a very very scary stat profile on a golf course that's going to be really demanding off the tee so unfortunately um the Denny momentum has has halted for now the uh this would be you know again if we're talking about two different paths the path for Brandon Todd is accuracy over um over distance he finished eighth year in 2020 he's been playing good golf don't mind that one single bit Eric Cole is someone that I find to be interesting just mostly intriguing right because there have been courses recently like TPC Twin Cities or even Sedgefield to a degree where I was worried about his short and crookedness right and if you if you if you are not good off the tee you're going to be in a lot of trouble I still feel that way this week but he kind of proved me wrong in the past so I will probably not have a ton of air coal but I would not blame you if you wanted to go that route because he is such a good approach player he is such a good putter is around the green play is generally pretty positive and he's proved me wrong in the past so maybe there is not a specific type of good or bad Golf Course for him I think we do need to track Adam's fence in you know if he is turning into the golfer that we saw when he first came on the scene which the stat profile kind of appears to be uh he's now gained off the T enforce rate he's now getting on approach and four straight that's something that he hasn't done the approach thing since February uh and and the fall is kind of what this stat profile resembles he's had an 11 stroke difference in putting from Sedgefield to CPC Southwind he gained five and a half he lost five and a half now he still finished t-37 while losing 5.6 Strokes putting last week at TPC Southwind so I am pretty bullish on Adams fence and the T to Green numbers um you know 20 Strokes Game T to Green over his last over his last 16 rounds very very cheap you can work him into a lot of different lineups here um I think that's a pretty a pretty good place to be Patrick Rogers sneaks in at the bottom here at 5500 I don't know if I'm super interested in the 5K guys Nick Taylor I think is interesting a little bit but let's see what the model can find so custom model rickrungood.com you apply uh any number of Weights that you want Custom Model to any basically any category that you want and uh it will spit you out not only rankings but you can then generate lineups you can export them directly into DraftKings yada yada yada okay so we could do so again I remember from a couple weeks ago it was it was hey I'm going to run some models with distance and I'm going to run some models with accuracy and kind of merge them together let's do a distance one so let's say you need to be um 20 in distance 10 on accuracy so that's 30 off the T I think off the t is going to be pretty important Strokes gained approach and I'm gonna do stroke scan approach for last let's do last 12. we rarely do last 12 right but this is the playoffs everyone's been playing kind of some of the same tournaments let's just let's just try it 20. on approach 25 on approach around the green I think you need let's go longer term around the green 18. and then putting in the last 24 so we've got a good little mix here 15. we have 12 left I only want to put like five on course history because it was in 2020 and there's only one year of it so I don't want to put too much on it and then over the last seven I just want to do hard golf courses I just think I just think it's it's going to be the real deal my number one golfer yeah Rory McIlroy how about Tommy lad number two tell you what I probably should have spent some Oxygen on on Tommy Fleetwood he's been great do I think he can win I don't know do I need him to win I don't know but Tommy's been great he's second in my ranks Scotty shuffler Terrell hat and John ROM Patrick Kent lay Victor hovland Hideki Matsuyama Tony Fina Alexander shoffing not a huge surprise Brendan Todd despite his being 50th out of 50th in driving distance in this field uh first at accuracy so he gets a bump there and he grades out pretty well otherwise Keegan at 12 Lucas Glover the mayor the man the myth the legend is 13th Harris English JT Poston Russell Henley whose last Hoagie sure how about Sam Burns 44th love that love that for me you know it's great great stuff okay cool I'll save this 2022 2023 BMW Monday I'll Tinker obviously as the week goes on all right uh Splash contest is now Outro live go sign up go sign up for the Survivor stuff um I know you guys love the NFL uh go sign off for Rook rungood.com subscribe to the channel do all the stuff that like people ask you to normally do appreciate all the feedback let's have a great week good luck